Odds
Tuesday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
fully expect cards will struggle to hit dunning who has a good mix of stuff with movement. Lean ov 4.5 k’s but think I really like his 15.5 out total, they been letting him throw close to 100 pitches his last few starts and with their pen being somewhat shaky I can’t imagine a early hook here long as he pitching well. He does throw a cutter but he mixes it in with a variety of other stuff, it the guys that throwing 50% or more cutters that I actually like cards offense against, his cutter/sinker mix is very similar to perez who we saw totally shit on cards yesterday! He has shown the ability to ramp up his slider usage, if they did any kind of good scouting report he will throw it well above 30% against the righties while throwing a bunch of change ups to the lefties.
The only real question here is do we mess with dunning props or just play the rangers 1st 5 or gm ml? The price more than reasonable, it actually cheap if you just consider what both these teams are right now and not worried bout preseason projections they clearly were way off on both teams! If you been around for last few years you would know how much disdain I had for the Arozarena for Liberatore trade when it happened and that I still am not high on Liberatore at all! Sure he pitching a bit better than last time they called him up but it far from impressive! Who woulda guessed there no way Rays were gonna trade away a young stud arm that turned out great?!?!!?! They don’t do that, why in gods name any team
Would take a young prospect pitcher w tons of cost controlled seasons in front of him beyond me? That what makes them who they are, they not letting go of a guy unless they know he ain’t as advertised, and nobody scouts have a better read on these things than rays! (Ok rant over, ya’ll know how stupid I think cards front office is! back to this game).
The real scary thing for Liberatore is yes he doing ok thus far but he has yet to allow a home run on this stage this year!! You might say that is good, I say they are coming cause he was allowing a 19% hr/fb ratio at triple a this year! Now he gets the rangers off a game they didn’t hit any bombs and stranding a ton of freaking runners every inning vs waino. I don’t think this kid will have a similar fate, rangers gonna draw walks and probably club a few bombs as he has to come over the plate! You can’t be walking damn near 5 per 9 innings and not get touched up vs this ranger team, it doesn’t help he a lefty as rangers sporting the 3rd best ops in baseball vs lhp and the best obp in the league vs lhp, not a good matchup for a kid who has walked 5 in 2 starts. His only good start was against milw who we know is awful vs lhp and tend to swing at bad pitches out the strike zone. His only other start was against the guardians who not much better than milw against lhp, only difference is they don’t strike out. So his 2 starts this year have been against 2 of the 3 worst hitting teams vs lhp in baseball and his numbers are still pedestrian! Nothing here screams he gonna fare well here! In fact it all pretty much points to this being a rough start!
So we have one pitcher trending well and his pitch mix matches up very well vs a struggling team vs a pitcher who ripe fo get blown up who matches up terrible w a red hot offense! The Ff ml is a little more pricy at around -150 but I have no issue laying the -.5 to get -115 here. I think I’ll be on rangers and dunning out total ov 15.5.
The only real question here is do we mess with dunning props or just play the rangers 1st 5 or gm ml? The price more than reasonable, it actually cheap if you just consider what both these teams are right now and not worried bout preseason projections they clearly were way off on both teams! If you been around for last few years you would know how much disdain I had for the Arozarena for Liberatore trade when it happened and that I still am not high on Liberatore at all! Sure he pitching a bit better than last time they called him up but it far from impressive! Who woulda guessed there no way Rays were gonna trade away a young stud arm that turned out great?!?!!?! They don’t do that, why in gods name any team
Would take a young prospect pitcher w tons of cost controlled seasons in front of him beyond me? That what makes them who they are, they not letting go of a guy unless they know he ain’t as advertised, and nobody scouts have a better read on these things than rays! (Ok rant over, ya’ll know how stupid I think cards front office is! back to this game).
The real scary thing for Liberatore is yes he doing ok thus far but he has yet to allow a home run on this stage this year!! You might say that is good, I say they are coming cause he was allowing a 19% hr/fb ratio at triple a this year! Now he gets the rangers off a game they didn’t hit any bombs and stranding a ton of freaking runners every inning vs waino. I don’t think this kid will have a similar fate, rangers gonna draw walks and probably club a few bombs as he has to come over the plate! You can’t be walking damn near 5 per 9 innings and not get touched up vs this ranger team, it doesn’t help he a lefty as rangers sporting the 3rd best ops in baseball vs lhp and the best obp in the league vs lhp, not a good matchup for a kid who has walked 5 in 2 starts. His only good start was against milw who we know is awful vs lhp and tend to swing at bad pitches out the strike zone. His only other start was against the guardians who not much better than milw against lhp, only difference is they don’t strike out. So his 2 starts this year have been against 2 of the 3 worst hitting teams vs lhp in baseball and his numbers are still pedestrian! Nothing here screams he gonna fare well here! In fact it all pretty much points to this being a rough start!
So we have one pitcher trending well and his pitch mix matches up very well vs a struggling team vs a pitcher who ripe fo get blown up who matches up terrible w a red hot offense! The Ff ml is a little more pricy at around -150 but I have no issue laying the -.5 to get -115 here. I think I’ll be on rangers and dunning out total ov 15.5.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’ll start this one by saying you all know I love gausman, he is without a doubt one my favorite handful of pitchers! I cashed as many k props with him the last 2 years as I have anyone. That said one the losses I’ve took with him this year was against this houston team who totally roughed him up early on and ran his pitch count way up! He did bounce back a bit after the awful 1st inning and manage to have 3+ decent innings but he still had to battle in many of those. I don’t expect that to happen again, matter a fact I would think he be good here, the problem is jays desperately need him to be great because manoah totally fucked the pen yesterday failing to get out of the 1st inning! Jays had to trot out 6 guys from the pen, all but one of those 6 had to throw 25+ pitches!
While I do think Gausman will be much better than the last time against houston, that a given, Stros are really clicking offensively and the lineup is now much deeper than it was last time he faced these guys! There still a lot of strike out potential at bottom Stros order but they also much more dangerous. This a tough lineup to navigate, they put up 6 vs ohtani and had him well over 100 pitches in the 6th inning. I feel like if gausman brings his A game we still talking 6 innings. Im a little shocked at his out total at 19.5! He certainly capable and im not expecting Stros to smash him, I just dunno if he can get that deep without being well over 100 pitches as I’d expect a lot of long at bats. I’d like to see Altuve back in lineup but know clue if he close to playing or close to the il? Lol. Not sure it really matters?
Just not sure jays should be favs here? It obvious which team is playing the better ball and Hunter brown has been pretty damn good himself, he has the advantage of jays not seeing him during the series in houston and Jays offense just really isn’t hitting like you would expect. Guasman doesn’t have a long history vs Stros, other than getting blown up earlier this year he did throw a 7 inning gem last year, then one meeting In ‘21 where once again he only managed 4.1 innings. So 2 pretty bad starts and one great. He has cleared 19.5 outs in half his 12 starts, has only been knocked out before the 6th 3x all year all on the road, it would be foolish not to expect him to go 6 innings here, and that bout where I put his like 6 innings and 2-3 runs allowed I think is fair. I just don’t see any reason hunter brown can’t match that? He did get knocked around his last start but for the most part he has bounced back strong from poor outings, only once has he had b2b poor outings. Jays offense hasn’t been ripping the cover off the ball and having never seen brown I expect he looks really good here. I don’t get why Stros dogs.
While I do think Gausman will be much better than the last time against houston, that a given, Stros are really clicking offensively and the lineup is now much deeper than it was last time he faced these guys! There still a lot of strike out potential at bottom Stros order but they also much more dangerous. This a tough lineup to navigate, they put up 6 vs ohtani and had him well over 100 pitches in the 6th inning. I feel like if gausman brings his A game we still talking 6 innings. Im a little shocked at his out total at 19.5! He certainly capable and im not expecting Stros to smash him, I just dunno if he can get that deep without being well over 100 pitches as I’d expect a lot of long at bats. I’d like to see Altuve back in lineup but know clue if he close to playing or close to the il? Lol. Not sure it really matters?
Just not sure jays should be favs here? It obvious which team is playing the better ball and Hunter brown has been pretty damn good himself, he has the advantage of jays not seeing him during the series in houston and Jays offense just really isn’t hitting like you would expect. Guasman doesn’t have a long history vs Stros, other than getting blown up earlier this year he did throw a 7 inning gem last year, then one meeting In ‘21 where once again he only managed 4.1 innings. So 2 pretty bad starts and one great. He has cleared 19.5 outs in half his 12 starts, has only been knocked out before the 6th 3x all year all on the road, it would be foolish not to expect him to go 6 innings here, and that bout where I put his like 6 innings and 2-3 runs allowed I think is fair. I just don’t see any reason hunter brown can’t match that? He did get knocked around his last start but for the most part he has bounced back strong from poor outings, only once has he had b2b poor outings. Jays offense hasn’t been ripping the cover off the ball and having never seen brown I expect he looks really good here. I don’t get why Stros dogs.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Man I remember how I was screaming at cardinals to do whatever it took to try and get keller last year when I heard there was a chance they could trade him. Of course cards being the cards they instead opted for some almost washed vet from pirates to finish the year, lol. Can’t even remember his name, his was fine but don’t even think he pitching this year!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Man, I’d love to be on pirates but every option expensive as hell, 1st 5 -.5 is freaking -165! -1.5 is -130, that not real appealing with a fairly light hitting team at home even tho this probably the 1x I’d consider since I think they will be up several runs when starters leave then you get some the a’s terrible pen! I don’t expect they have a hard time scoring off A’s starter but I don’t really want pirates offense without keller.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Last I've seen Altuve is possible tonight but likely not back til tomorrow
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Ridiculous the Rangers didn't score in the first, then after the 2nd somehow they got shut down
Had a parlay with Rangers 5+ and Wainright to give up 6+ hits and have no clue how that didn't cash
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think it worth the extra to avoid pens and play the 1st 5 today, can’t really trust either one these pens and I’m pretty confident dunning will be better than Liberatore. I’m really thinking bout a few home run props, maybe Semien, garcia, and jung? I think FanDuel has that thing on Tuesday’s where if you bet any player to hit a home run you get 5 bucks for every bomb in that game, could be a good way to get a free 20 bet on home run prop, I think there be several tonight.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Roof in Arlington? They don't have one. Used to be the wind tunnel effect until they squashed that a few years ago...when the wind was blowing in from RF
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
So funny, I had no clue
That's how little I've paid attention to Rangers baseball the last few years
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just looked at their website, interesting looking joint
Marsski
MAC Marvel
First five & game ML by Pit is -135 on DK
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You mean for them to leading after 5 + win? I’ve never looked at those but don’t hate it here. I might just pay the -165 for them to be leading after 5, Why deal with the last 4 innings? Lol. I assume it a loss if they tied after 5 anyways?
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Yes, ahead at 5 and end
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Think I’ll just pay the extra 30 cents and be done at 5 innings. No great reason other than inpatients! And I guess the fact pirates seem to push Keller too far sometimes and he starts getting hit late in starts. I’d think they be fine cause a’s pen so awful. I still have a tough time laying this kind of juice on a pirates offense I don’t trust all that much lately! They have figured out a way to win 6 straight tho, I damn sure don’t see a’s stopping that streak in this pitching matchup.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I dunno how they justify milw being favs either? Freddy p hasn’t been nearly as good I thought he be, O’s lineup will punish mistakes and he makes a lot of them. Gibson doesn’t serve up many bombs which really milw only way to score runs, they don’t hit for average or get on base much.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
ML only, not sure what you'd gain by betting -1.5 lol other than plus money but the whole point of the promo is that regardless of what happens you get paid the second you team gets up by 2 or more
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Find a dog like Houston
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Would you play Gilbert at 17.5 -105?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think he goes 6 innings.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t think there was hardly any juice on 16.5. His k price been kinda bouncing around all day, it would drop down to like -160 ov 4.5 and I’d start thinking bout then it bounce back up to -190. Ultimately jays don’t fan a bunch but pitchers havnt had a lot of problems getting thru 6 on them so figured the outs without juice was probably better. Can’t believe it went down to 15.5 but yea I’d prob just assume have the 16.5 without juice, not a whole lot of difference, now that I say that he will get pulled after 5.1, lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I really couldn’t believe he wasn’t 17.5 in 1st place, i really won’t play 16.5 unless I think he has a really good chance of going 6. A lot worse pitchers than him been going 17-18 outs vs the pads recently.
Thanks man.
