Friday Discussion Thread

Like christmas again w/Cubs game. We got Drekman behind the dish, he's 17-3 over, and 12.1 runs avg in his games. Already was on the over and a bit more conservative due to the wind but Drekman defies wind most games. If we get to 12, we can call it the DREKMAN MATINEE....Love the over more today
 
yanks overs are basically auto plays for me right now. if they start slumping or something i'll obviously think again but at the moment see no reason not to hit their overs. jays been a sneaky over team this past month or so as well.
 
2daBank said:
yanks overs are basically auto plays for me right now. if they start slumping or something i'll obviously think again but at the moment see no reason not to hit their overs. jays been a sneaky over team this past month or so as well.
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same, waiting on the ump assignment, if it's Fletcher, I'm pounding it more
 
PirateAlew said:
Like christmas again w/Cubs game. We got Drekman behind the dish, he's 17-3 over, and 12.1 runs avg in his games. Already was on the over and a bit more conservative due to the wind but Drekman defies wind most games. Love the over more today
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damn that sucks i don't really like the over based on pitching matchups and wind blowing in. i really expect fedde to pitch great but he also the kind of guy who needs calls on the corners so that could def hurt him, assad to tho, neither pitcher is overpowering anyone so if they not getting boarderline pitches they could both struggle! i didnt play anything on under so guess im ok. maybe it help pham hit his prop!! lol
 
guess it a good thing draft kings not listing any ff game totals cause i def would have played the 1st 5 under in wrigley. lol
 
i know cle not a high strikeout team but that 3.5 number for Kremer is nuts if he pitches anything like he did his last start he will have no problem punching 4+, the juice was kinda high and ragans ov 6.5 was -175 but im pretty confident he fans 7+ tigers so putting the 2 in a parlay made sense to me.
 
if i could have bet 1st 5 i would have pounded o's, no clue what going on w dk and 1st 5s, so i bet o's 1st 3 innings and game. kremer vs carrasco a big mismatch if kremer is in fact back, just hoping we see same guy as his last start cause he looked fantastic despite taking the loss mostly cause the defense let him down, his pitches were fantastic tho
 
PirateAlew said:
same, waiting on the ump assignment, if it's Fletcher, I'm pounding it more
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no clue on ump but 7.5 in houston seemed silly low. i like kikuchi stuff but he capable of losing it at any time and walking a bunch! dont think the kid pitching for rays gonna hold stros offense down. i made that like 9 so im either missing something or they screwed that up!
 
it's crazy ragans ov 6.5 was way more expensive than skubal but think it justified considering kc a much better contact hitting team. i like ragans to punch out a lot in this one, i assume weather be much nicer than his last start in kc when he totally ran out of gas.
 
2daBank said:
no clue on ump but 7.5 in houston seemed silly low. i like kikuchi stuff but he capable of losing it at any time and walking a bunch! dont think the kid pitching for rays gonna hold stros offense down. i made that like 9 so im either missing something or they screwed that up!
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yeah i hit the tampa rays TT over 3.5 hard.....Kikuchi has given up 3 to them in each of the 3 games he last faced them and they scored more on the pen....he's been a gas can lately, 10.05 ERA last 3 starts. I'd be shocked if tampa doesnt get to this total off him alone.
 
most ya'll know me well enough to know i prob fade cardinals more than play them seeing how im way more a fan myself and my money than any team! i do think this a really strong spot to play them at a really cheap price tho. rather fedde got to make his 1st start at busch cause guys just love it but there be plenty of cards fans at wrigley and he just fits the profile perfectly for the guys cards pick up and usually end up being great for them. throw in he already has excellent numbers vs these cubs hitters and this just feels like a game he gonna pitch very well and a game cards will give him support. love cards here laying the short number.
 
PirateAlew said:
agree love the cards today, great spot to bounce back with a solid pitcher.
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i coulda lived without heisly throwing 24 pitches blowing that game last night but think fedde will prob go fairly deep and we have enough cushion won't matter if someone else takes the 9th.
 
2daBank said:
i coulda lived without heisly throwing 24 pitches blowing that game last night but think fedde will prob go fairly deep and we have enough cushion won't matter if someone else takes the 9th.
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Agreed. He is up there. Not happy about it. Hope they can get some runs.
 
not gonna lie had i known we got a ump they not known for giving the corners i would have put NRFI in the sgp instead of fedde k's, not sure he can punch 5 without benefit of gettin the corners or slightly off! oh well.
 
Someone mentioned "Bookies Dream". Back when I was 18 and a rookie gambler I remember being that bookies dream. Played about 30 plays a day. No way to turn a profit in that especially in baseball with the juice. All these years later try like hell to limit myself to a few day and if they are losses, regroup for next day.
 
fedde pitch count thru the damn roof. he got 2 strikes on multiple hitters then let them work count to 3-2. he doesn't really have a legit put away pitch which again a very cardinal type of pitcher! lol
 
TheDodgers said:
Someone mentioned "Bookies Dream". Back when I was 18 and a rookie gambler I remember being that bookies dream. Played about 30 plays a day. No way to turn a profit in that especially in baseball with the juice. All these years later try like hell to limit myself to a few day and if they are losses, regroup for next day.
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To each their own, I've done quite well with 30 plays a day, hit 12-1 on my top plays the other day and this week has been great going back last thursday...Living in early retirement off gambling

and here comes the runs. 4-0 Cubs. maybe we'll get some late game heroics from the Cards but over looking better already
 
5-0 Cubs another homer, and i thought the wind was blowing in so hard no homers expected? Guess not. Let's get runs at this point..
 
PirateAlew said:
To each their own, I've done quite well with 30 plays a day, hit 12-1 on my top plays the other day and this week has been great going back last thursday...Living in early retirement off gambling

and here comes the runs. 4-0 Cubs. maybe we'll get some late game heroics from the Cards but over looking better already
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Ahhh maybe. Indeed to each there own. Here I thought you retired off IBM not gambling. If from gambling hats off to you. Did you play the Cards more or the total?
 
TheDodgers said:
Someone mentioned "Bookies Dream". Back when I was 18 and a rookie gambler I remember being that bookies dream. Played about 30 plays a day. No way to turn a profit in that especially in baseball with the juice. All these years later try like hell to limit myself to a few day and if they are losses, regroup for next day.
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i'm a firm believer ya shouldn't put a cap on number of plays. some days there just more value than others! i let the prices dictate other than some arbitrary number. pretty unusual i'll find a huge number of plays i think the line is off so kinda rare i make a lot of plays but just depends, plus with addition of all these props has me drawing from much bigger pool. making the right plays is far more important than worrying bout the amount imo. i kinda doubt books are missing prices bad enough on that many games but never know! imo the most important thing for us is having a method of making our own prices then simply making plays that we expect cash at a profitable rate based off our price compared to books number! my friends always look at me sideways when i try to explain to them my goal isn't exactly picking the winner of a given game, that is a daunting task cause a who knows wtf can and usually does happen, i'm simply trying to make plays that if i made 100s of times at that price i would turn a profit! that a lot easier to do than predicting one random event, even tho it doesn't sound as sexy!!
 
TheDodgers said:
Ahhh maybe. Indeed to each there own. Here I thought you retired off IBM not gambling. If from gambling hats off to you. Did you play the Cards more or the total?
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No I left IBM end of 2017, I left sales as a VP/Managing Director and retired in Jan 2023 after the birth of our daughter London.Ive been fighting IRS on crap IBM did wrong in 2016-2017 around my bonuses/commissions and a few other issues, maybe that's what you're confusing it with.

This morning, I played the Cards more than the Total but when I saw Drekman was announced as the umpire, I equalled the Cards bet hich was my #3. I have Boston and Orioles larger tonight.....Sports gambling is what i do to pay the bills these days, not making as much as the sales days but I'm able to be home with the family
 
peelpub94 said:
Eric Fedde finally coming back to earth. Guess it took a team shake up.
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explain coming back to earth? you don't think his 1st half sustainable? i don't recall what his advanced stuff says but lot of guys like him go to japan ams learn to pitch, often outperform the advanced metrics that place way to much emphasis on k's. last time i looked at him and watched a start i felt like he was capable of continuing being solid., im certainly not buying regression cause of one bad inning!
 
there "should" be plenty more run scoring chances this game....Assad will give some more up, he's losing control and the pen is hittable esp with Drekman's very small strike zone for the pitchers today...even with the wind ripping in today...
 
that one the few areas cards front office deserves credit, they very good at identifying pitchers the advanced metrics hate and keeping them pitching well above what the metrics would explain!!
 
as i've always said bout the advanced metrics, they a great tool and i use them quite a bit but they are far from the end all be all, i've made a lot of money fading the die hard metrics crowd who treat them as the be all end all. nothing cracks me up more than a pitcher who outperforms his metrics for start after start for so long then the 2md he has a bad game these clowns come out the woodwork screaming "see regression, told ya'll!!!" lmfao. sure buddy, way to lose 1000s fading guy just to get that 1 win so you can call it regression!!! lol
 
Cubs pen is 10th from last at 3.7 ERA....Assad at 98 pitches, and pen warmed up. Now the cards should be able hit the pen today....
 
looks like we got good shot at cashing fedde k's. unfortunately cards winning and pham+goldy hits not looking so hot. then again if they are gonna come back both probably need hits!!
 
wynn doing his job but then the next 3 in lineup doing nothing! goldy has walked 2x then again next several in lineup get nothing!!! tbink they need to change up the lineup going forward.
 
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