NBA Playoff Plays (First Round)...

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Playoffs: 16-11 (+9.92)

Plays, record and shit up in a bit.

Brutal regular season for me, worst on wax since I started my online gambling buzz back in 2000 at 'Blankets'. Finished in the stink but had a nice little run to end it.

Was a funny season, very bi-polar and strange for the most part.

Crushed the postseason last year though, went 34-13 for 49.35 units for the 2016/17 playoffs. Hoping to run a repeat.

Brief random thoughts...

The reliable numbers say the Rockets or Raps will be winning it all.

Dubs fortunes gonna rely on how Steph is when he comes back, if he is in his usual form then they repeat. Plain and simple.

Cavs defense is too weak, they aren't winning it all. Don't think they get past the 2nd round but LeCramps is a god, so won't be overly shocked if they do make the ECF's.

Cavs gonna have to work to beat Indy, imo. Cramps will need to be fully juiced on the HGH etc.

Of the 30 teams in the league, Cavs are 29th in my adjusted defensive standings - just above the Suns and just below the Wolves.

Crabs were 24th last season but the emergence of the Raps is gonna make it hard if Toronto manages to shake the demons in the 1st round.

Speaking of the Wolves, they are gonna get murked damn hard. Series will be quick and efficient for Houston.

Technically Philly has the best path as the 3-seed but they drew the League's Michael Myers aka the Meat in the 1st round,

Meat are a well-coached beast that requires your best series of kill shots. Gonna be a battle of a series, do think Philly survives but it may murder them going forward.

Bucks are the right kind of flaky, disorganised team that the Celtics (Brad Stevens) can handle and beat.

Had the C's drawn the Wiz who are a different kind of flaky I'd have been all over Washington.

Stevens should send Scotty Brooks a bunch of flowers.

C's v Bucks is the biggest coaching mismatch of the 1st round, I mean the void between the 2 coaches is fucking massive.

Precedent for Raps v Wiz will be set in Game 1, Toronto win this series but how easily it will be done comes down to tomorrow evening.

Scotty will fuck it up one way or another and take note, Scotty loves to put his bums in early and get blown the hell out if he decides his team can't win.

I have Blazers v Pels as pretty evenly matched. The backcourt of the Blazers should eventually win out though and Stotts >> Gentry.

Dubs in their current state are overpriced vs the Spurs, this won't be an easy series for the defending champs early on. Dubs will improve and move on though.

Jizz at Thunder is another coaching mismatch. 'Psycho' Snyder is solid, Billy D not so much.

Utah has more than a chance at winning this series but I can see OKC getting all the calls.

Will be a great game by game series.

Either way, you watch your ass in the 1st round as it often has a ton of surprises. The 2nd round is and always will be the money round.

Will throw my lines up shortly.

GL fellas.

:popcorn:
 
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My spreads for the Game 1's...

Saturday:

Dubs -5 v Spurs (actual spread is -8).

Raps -9.5 v Wiz (actual spread is -7.5 or -8)

Sixers -8.5 v Heat (actual spread is -6.5)

Blazers -4 v Pels (actual spread is -6)

Sunday:

Celtics -5 v Bucks (actual spread is -3.5)

Cavs -6.5 v Pacers (the same)

Thunder -4 v Jazz (the same)

Rockets -11 v Wolves (basically the same)

:shake:
 
Thanks for this, Em. Always enjoy your thoughts. I imagine I will be on Craptors for an above average sized bet tomorrow. BOL this postseason brother.
 
Thanks for this, Em. Always enjoy your thoughts. I imagine I will be on Craptors for an above average sized bet tomorrow. BOL this postseason brother.

Thanks Ryno. BOL to you also.

Thing with the Raps is besides being 0-7 ATS in Game 1's is that 1-seeds are 1-7 ATS in Game 1's since 2013.

Lowry did say they'll be treating this game like a Game 7 which could lead to a tight-assed affair.

Most likely gonna make a Game 2 play in this series at this stage.
 
I always think your commentary is hilarious and on point. I dont even try in this league, cause i am so overmatched. I like the drama tho. Legggo emkee
 
Okay, 1st cab off the rank...

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors

The play...

Warriors -8 (3 units)

...
 
Kind of changed my approach on Game 1.

Spread talks.

Took a deep look into the Spurs offense and can't see them keeping up initially.

Dubs off a game #82 40-point shit-whipping as well. Expect a focused effort on both ends.

Series is 5 games max.
 
Good luck , but wouldn’t the play be Spurs based on your numbers?

Can work 2 ways, can play the perceived value or it could indicate a strong line.

Went latter.

1st round Game 1’s are as much guess/gut work as anything else.

Later stages of the round and especially Round 2 is where the numbers are more potent.
 
Thanks fellas.

Wanna go Raps but my better judgement says no.

Gotta see what this perennial chokers psyche is like.

Toronto being undervalued.
 
Man that was ugly, got punished for playing everybody’s sexy pick.

I blame Lang.

Avoiding the late game, get rolling tomorrow.
 
Got the cake in the first game but not sure why I faded a 25-12 ATS as a home fave team but I did.

Got caught looking at the perceived advantages Miami has, should have trusted my line.

Game 1's always the fartiest to figure out. Gotta take the good with the bad.

adding...

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers

The play...

Cavaliers -6 (3 units)

...
 
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Cavs have been a nightmare as home chalk this season but I think they switch it up a notch here.

One of my fave playoff angles is fading well rested dogs (3+ days rest).

Got some other plays on deck.
 
Em, any thoughts on the early game? Thought you might play C's with your number being higher than the spread.
 
Em, any thoughts on the early game? Thought you might play C's with your number being higher than the spread.

Needed to watch a game between these squads first before making any plays but yeah it's C's or bust by the looks.

Bucks are too dysfunctional to upset the stability of this Celtics team.
 
Spread up to 7.5 in Cleveland.

Sat on this fucker in the a.m and got a 6.

LeCramps aka Mr Spread so you gotta watch the lines but he should HAM it up here given the questions surrounding his squad.
 
Not to be in Cleveland, if it's gonna look like shit it generally happens in Game 1 of the 1st Round.

Crabs out there looking like a team with no clue about their opponent or themselves.

Sets up a murk play for Game 2.
 
Helluva 2nd half line in Cleveland, not sure what to make of it other than it being both positive and negative in different ways.

Crazy.
 
Helluva 2nd half line in Cleveland, not sure what to make of it other than it being both positive and negative in different ways.

Crazy.
They had to do that. Pacers rocking again out of the gate. Might not see much Bron past early 4th at this rate.
 
My Game 2 lines...

Monday:

Sixers -9 v Heat (actual spread is -7)

Dubs -5.5 v Spurs (actual spread is -9.5)

Tuesday:

Raps -10 v Wizards (actual spread is -8)

Celtics -6 v Bucks (actual spread is -3)

Blazers -4 v Pelicans (actual spread is -6)

Will put the other spreads up tonight.
 
Not to be in Cleveland, if it's gonna look like shit it generally happens in Game 1 of the 1st Round.

Crabs out there looking like a team with no clue about their opponent or themselves.

Sets up a murk play for Game 2.
Hopefully bron doesn’t bring this “zero dark thirty mode”
 
Is about to be LeCramps 1st ever Round 1, Game 1 playoff loss of his career barring any late game heroics.
 
Cavs got problems, we knew that but Game 1 said a lot about where they're at.

Normally Cramps would pull this game outta the fire and win, they made their run but with no Kyrie it's a massive task.

Lost money but saw all I needed to see. Team is walking the mile.

Started last postseason 1-2 with a Crabs fuck job so in the on the correct path.

Back with a play.
 
Always gotta give Cramps the benefit of the doubt in Game 1 of Round 1, always. Like taxes.

But that's 3 years straight he's failed to cover but today was his first SU loss and it was an ass kicking. It's big news.
 
Lean Jazz, Ryno.

They should take one of these 2 games in OKC SU.

Thunder have been brutal ATS vs winning teams as a home fave this season.

Biggest question is how Spider Mitchell handles his first ever NBA playoff game.

He has the right personality.

Will either hit Jazz right before tip or hopefully get something bigger live.
 
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