Let's talk NBA Championship...and potential playoff matchups...

[B.A.R.]

I was thinking Philly also after they won tonight

Very possible.

Doc and Harden are gone. That's plusses. My issue will be health of JoJo.

Our resident Philly guy @emkee says no worries there.

More to come in my playoff thread.

 

[twinkie13]

Barkley and even kenny were pointing out he just doesnt have killer instincts

He played himself into shape this year, he needs to be in this good or better day 1 next year

maybe he develops it, he did look so fun to watch last night before the Hammy

How? It’s his 1st real season kinda. And on top they call fouls on him like he’s a G
Leaguer. Brutal.

Look I get it. It’s hard not to kinda dislike the guy.

 

[guaranteeed]

How? It’s his 1st real season kinda. And on top they call fouls on him like he’s a G
Leaguer. Brutal.

Look I get it. It’s hard not to kinda dislike the guy.

I hope he does, I think just showing up next year from the jump will go a long way

Hes very fun to watch

 

[EL CAPO]

market seems to be all over kings nuts vs pelicans without zion.......man , i don't get the love for the kings in that one or over - why books ignoring all 5 games flew over that total ? and pelicans domination ? ......zion did not play in all those games. And the last game was a "must win" for both squads at sac town.

from a buy low sell high - kings just blasted warriors but i'm not sure that means they are so good now. pelicans just lost 2 in a row now - and go from a bad matchup to a good matchup

It became very evident in that second quarter against lakeshow a methodical halfcourt game the pelicans offense becomes stagnant , and they thrive much better in a high tempo game. This game is going to be high tempo which should also mean points.

Zion is a big loss no doubt , him downhill vs that weak rim protection defense was a big part of their advantage , but I think have enough without him. .......Ingram should be pissed he sat that 4th quarter and come out ready to play and same for mccollum.

 

[EL CAPO]

Honestly need to see what shakes out here with the last East play in.

Boston SHOULD be the team.

Milwaukee very lucky to avoid Philly or Miami 1st round. That was a loss.

Knicks don't have enough offense.

Cleveland and Orlando maxed out in regular season. Excellent work by both staffs.

Philly the true wildcard here.

was doc coaching tonight ? not even practice against a zone ?

i don't think philly has the pieces - embiid looks hurt, and man, that roster just eh - they aren't really that talented. Theres a reason they lost so many games without embiid - i don't think the good teams lose that much even without their top player.......trotting out 50 year old lowry and batum to save the day.

knicks definately don't have enough either - with randle they would.....but lets ask ourselves why the knicks are better then philly when each didn't have their best player ? heat looked bad too - good chance they lose to chicago without jimmy and shooting like crap like they did again tonight

I keep coming back to milwaukee if based on what we saw tonight is the competition - they have the pieces - but again - doc always has the pieces

 

[Inspekdah]

was doc coaching tonight ? not even practice against a zone ?

i don't think philly has the pieces - embiid looks hurt, and man, that roster just eh - they aren't really that talented. Theres a reason they lost so many games without embiid - i don't think the good teams lose that much even without their top player.......trotting out 50 year old lowry and batum to save the day.

knicks definately don't have enough either - with randle they would.....but lets ask ourselves why the knicks are better then philly when each didn't have their best player ? heat looked bad too - good chance they lose to chicago without jimmy and shooting like crap like they did again tonight

I keep coming back to milwaukee if based on what we saw tonight is the competition - they have the pieces - but again - doc always has the pieces

Bucks without Giannis are gone 1st round. They're so bad on defense and offense is hit or miss.

Knicks 6ers should go 7!

I give Sixers an edge in coaching, as Thibbs coaches regular season the same as playoffs, there is no second gear or switch for the teams. This can be seen over a career of playoff mediocrity and shortcomings...

 

[Inspekdah]

How? It’s his 1st real season kinda. And on top they call fouls on him like he’s a G
Leaguer. Brutal.

Look I get it. It’s hard not to kinda dislike the guy.

Hopefully Pels win and he returns. He's must watch

 

[divol]

Y’all don’t like that version of Zion? If he gets a 15 foot jumper, how can teams guard him?
I’m not sure we watched the same game. Hes come around. Soft for injuries? Sure. Almost all are nowadays sadly.


The dead weight is BI at a max. Too much iso ball. Yea he can have great scoring nights but meh. And CJ someone else can have.
Willie also questionable lineups at best as well know.

I just don’t see how someone can watch last night and start cutting into Zion at this stage

Ingram has the hand, but that's it. Too inconsistent, too bad on defense, too much in love with midranges. He learned from Kobe, but he is no where his level.
He Durant type of player, but not the same level of talent.
He can be third option on contender, but for that he needs to learn not to hog the ball.

 

[EL CAPO]

I'm seeing this kings total at 212....is it all the under hype on such a high intensity game ? Bulls heat I agree with the under move

Klay brick Thompson .....looked comatose .....and kings been waiting on that game all year to stop curry. So now the kings are the team that gave up less then 90 ? I don't think so.

Pelicans also defeated kings in in season tournament....another must win. How many more must wins do we need to see ??

 

[twinkie13]

Ingram has the hand, but that's it. Too inconsistent, too bad on defense, too much in love with midranges. He learned from Kobe, but he is no where his level.
He Durant type of player, but not the same level of talent.
He can be third option on contender, but for that he needs to learn not to hog the ball.

Great Value Durant

Probably a step down

 

[twinkie13]

I'm seeing this kings total at 212....is it all the under hype on such a high intensity game ? Bulls heat I agree with the under move

Klay brick Thompson .....looked comatose .....and kings been waiting on that game all year to stop curry. So now the kings are the team that gave up less then 90 ? I don't think so.

Pelicans also defeated kings in in season tournament....another must win. How many more must wins do we need to see ??

I gotta think 6-0 is tough. It’s just how the lineup goes for Willie

 

[Inspekdah]

As long as Jose is playing NO always has a shot. I think we have a lot of value with them with the GSW Kings blowout and the Zion injury

 

[EL CAPO]

As long as Jose is playing NO always has a shot. I think we have a lot of value with them with the GSW Kings blowout and the Zion injury

I agree ....feels lot of overreacting to sac slamming door on a decrepid warriors. I'm prepared to be wrong tho .....I am very off on the total ... odds are im probably not seeing this one correctly

For perspective .....heat sixers slugfest horrible offensive game ended at 209....and we are headed there with the kings and pelicans who just wanna run and gun and last game ended 258. ....I have this more like 220 range.

 

[KJ]

I agree ....feels lot of overreacting to sac slamming door on a decrepid warriors. I'm prepared to be wrong tho .....I am very off on the total ... odds are im probably not seeing this one correctly

For perspective .....heat sixers slugfest horrible offensive game ended at 209....and we are headed there with the kings and pelicans who just wanna run and gun and last game ended 258. ....I have this more like 220 range.

I think what will always shade these totals is the propensity for elimination games to stay under, @BetCrimes1984 always comes in every year the those amazing stats. I don't even know if the games the last couple nights stayed under although 2 of them weren't actually elimination games while both tomorrow obviously are.

 

[B.A.R.]

I agree ....feels lot of overreacting to sac slamming door on a decrepid warriors. I'm prepared to be wrong tho .....I am very off on the total ... odds are im probably not seeing this one correctly

For perspective .....heat sixers slugfest horrible offensive game ended at 209....and we are headed there with the kings and pelicans who just wanna run and gun and last game ended 258. ....I have this more like 220 range.

210 now in NOLA

 

[EL CAPO]

210 now in NOLA

And 206 in Chicago. ....huge adjustment for Zion. Hardly any adjustment for Butler

Out of the 4 teams where are we ranking the best under teams....

We know bulls and heat are the first 2 under teams .......now I am going to not discredit sacs performance in under strings recently tho...they have been on a under roll. But idn just don't see same totals for these games

 

[EL CAPO]

That game tonight makes you see the holes in Denver and makes you wonder if that 20 point loss to the spurs to give up the 1 seed will come back to bite em.......Timberwolves bench is so much better then Denver. Brauns your best guy ? Murray is the most important player. If he has an off night feels like they are in trouble

 

[Loves2kickass]

I think Denver is just fine. The team to beat

 

[PirateAlew]

I think Denver is just fine. The team to beat

Agree- they are the class of the NBA. in our Telegram group a few lakers fans were all excited up 20 and all first half through mid 4th. I had just pounded Nuggets down 8, at basically at a pick em, then they went down 20 and i got them again at +6 . Lakers fans in the group were incredulous even offering side bets (shoulda taken it HA!) but just like i said a few times to them, this is normal for them, they conserve energy early, play at about half strength and turn it up late 4th, then they started claiming it was all luck. No, Lakers got lucky Nuggets missed about 20 open shots that rimmed out (atypical). Really denver should have been up all game if those were falling, just had to correct a few minor things and wait for Bron and AD to get gassed from the altitude---lakers were stupid blowing their energy early and forgetting the altitude would be a factor late. That last 5 minutes they couldnt breathe and Denver went to work. Lebron missing that open 3 was a good example of what tired legs will do..

This is what champ teams do, use their brains to put teams away late, and the ability to come back from a 20 point 2nd half deficit whenever the turn it up, they know they're never out of it and you could tell from their body language down 22 that they werent bothered at all. Fun 4th quarter team to watch. Kinda reminded me of that comeback against the warriors the final 6 minutes with Joker hitting the near half court shot a few months ago. Made some decent money live betting them every time they get down big in a big game especially at home.

I'd be surprised if nuggets dont sweep lakers yet again to get some extra rest for next round. The Celtics might be able to give them a competitive series in the finals but i dont see any other team from the east challenging them (outside of a Joker or another key star injury). In the west, OKC is too young and inexperienced,

 

[twinkie13]

Alotta talk today and grievances on refs. LeBron, DeAngelo coaches…..on top of Murray. Slippery slippery slope this thing here.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Alotta talk today and grievances on refs. LeBron, DeAngelo coaches…..on top of Murray. Slippery slippery slope this thing here.

There were a lot of Draymond Green's playing last night lol. Ärguing every call.

 

[twinkie13]

There were a lot of Draymond Green's playing last night lol. Ärguing every call.

Ref games came early. Gonna be real interesting going forward

 

[twinkie13]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782766478535578038

That dude ate that shit. Tough motherfucker

 

[B.A.R.]

That game tonight makes you see the holes in Denver and makes you wonder if that 20 point loss to the spurs to give up the 1 seed will come back to bite em.......Timberwolves bench is so much better then Denver. Brauns your best guy ? Murray is the most important player. If he has an off night feels like they are in trouble

Don't see it.

I see a championship team that thinks they can turn it on when they want.

A road game will do them well.

Watching them last two games reminded me a lot of my Stons in 2006-2008..

Can this bite them in the ass later? Certainly.

But, not against this Lakers team. Minnesota will push them 6 games though.

 

[twinkie13]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782748795882627428

 

[EL CAPO]

Don't see it.

I see a championship team that thinks they can turn it on when they want.

A road game will do them well.

Watching them last two games reminded me a lot of my Stons in 2006-2008..

Can this bite them in the ass later? Certainly.

But, not against this Lakers team. Minnesota will push them 6 games though.

And the pistons never went b2b

I'm gonna say it....I think we are overvaluing the nuggets a tad......to go back to back is rarified air. Talking Lakers with Shaq and Kobe....Jordan bulls ....warriors with Durant

All those teams had a better bench then Denver. Their best bench guy is Watson.

Do I still think they should be the fav over boston..yes

But to get through the west ? At this point I have their second round matchup as a tossup 50 50.
.

 

[B.A.R.]

And the pistons never went b2b

I'm gonna say it....I think we are overvaluing the nuggets a tad......to go back to back is rarified air. Talking Lakers with Shaq and Kobe....Jordan bulls ....warriors with Durant

All those teams had a better bench then Denver. Their best bench guy is Watson.

Do I still think they should be the fav over boston..yes

But to get through the west ? At this point I have their second round matchup as a tossup 50 50.
.

Yes, understand the points.

Contra....
The NBA is down in a competitive aspect compared to those eras.

And, the Shaq Kobe era was pretty bad (only Sacto and SA worth their salt).

Healthy Clippers the only chance in West -- and that only if Harden knows his role.

 

[EL CAPO]

Yes, understand the points.

Contra....
The NBA is down in a competitive aspect compared to those eras.

And, the Shaq Kobe era was pretty bad (only Sacto and SA worth their salt).

Healthy Clippers the only chance in West -- and that only if Harden knows his role.

Hard disagree on clips .....these teams look disgusting tonight.

Timberwolves/nuggets win the west.....to that point I agree you just have to win one super tough series these days...... Will be placing a future on them to win a title. Actually think they are more talented overall and deeper. Ant is the most Jordan player in style of play since Jordan.

 

[Loves2kickass]

At this point I have their second round matchup as a tossup 50 50.
.

The books will disagree.

 

[B.A.R.]

Hard disagree on clips .....these teams look disgusting tonight.

Timberwolves/nuggets win the west.....to that point I agree you just have to win one super tough series these days...... Will be placing a future on them to win a title. Actually think they are more talented overall and deeper. Ant is the most Jordan player in style of play since Jordan.

Clips are only a full charge with Leonard playing 36mpg and not missing anytime.

Harden factor hurts them, no doubt. Mm

I'm a Minnesota fan too, but Denver wins that series in 6 or 7.

Back to the Clips... just a very fluid situation. But, the 2nd round matchup very favorable.

 

[EL CAPO]

The books will disagree.

oh i know; nuggets deserve it - i would slightly but basically more -120/-130 for me rather then the -210 your going to see from the books..........there is the factor of minny being more hungry/ difficulty and focus of having to repeat / and minney matching up better then anyone - as super young last year playing them tough as nails even in a sweep and beating them multiple times this year

.i think depth is real, massive advantage for timberwolves. I love desmond watson for the nuggets defensively - wolves have multiple of those guys who can also score - mcdaniels and alexander walker.

IMO - there is a great future value on minny to win the chip if its still +1200 - - (if you believe the winner of minny/denver is winning the west)

I feel it's a 2 horse race in the west- if minny wins - i think they take out boston

 

[Loves2kickass]

oh i know; nuggets deserve it - i would slightly but basically more -120/-130 for me rather then the -210 your going to see from the books..........there is the factor of minny being more hungry/ difficulty and focus of having to repeat / and minney matching up better then anyone - as super young last year playing them tough as nails even in a sweep and beating them multiple times this year

.i think depth is real, massive advantage for timberwolves. I love desmond watson for the nuggets defensively - wolves have multiple of those guys who can also score - mcdaniels and alexander walker.

IMO - there is a great future value on minny to win the chip if its still +1200 - - (if you believe the winner of minny/denver is winning the west)

I feel it's a 2 horse race in the west- if minny wins - i think they take out boston

If Denver doesn't win the chip then it will go to either Boston or Milwaukee (with Giannis). Maybe next season for the Wolves. Bookmark this comment for after finals.

 

[B.A.R.]

If Denver doesn't win the chip then it will go to either Boston or Milwaukee (with Giannis). Maybe next season for the Wolves. Bookmark this comment for after finals.

I'll say it again, if Janice isn't in G3, I'd start to worry.

His pain threshold is comparable to the golden age NBA players (and Kobe).

That would worry me as a Bucks fan.

 

[Inspekdah]

Wolves look great and ANT is the best player in the league going into next season but Suns have a bum and Jurkic and then I’d argue not a 100 PF/C on the roster.

 

[B.A.R.]

Wolves look great and ANT is the best player in the league going into next season but Suns have a bum and Jurkic and then I’d argue not a 100 PF/C on the roster.

Once ANT becomes consistent, watch out.

He is one of my 2 favs...

He's close.

Needs to knock out the 6-19, 4-16, 3-7 type games (regular season stat line vs PHX).

 

[Loves2kickass]

Boston is nothing more than a regular season team.

 

[PirateAlew]

Boston is nothing more than a regular season team.

they have no heart or the brainpower to know how to win crucial games even at home. Too individualistic especially Tatum. Embarrassing to let a injury riddled team set a 3 point record on their floor LOL

 

[B.A.R.]

Boston is nothing more than a regular season team.

Sure is, but the path is there for them.

Miami isn't shooting 23-43 from 3 again in this series.

Boston will win and face a Cavs team that can't score consistently.

Then, Knicks Bucks (let's see on Giannis) or Pacers.

Just setting up very nicely for them.

This is why I bet the Heat awhile back. Jimmy injury messed it all up, unfortunately.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Miami was injury riddled last season when they beat the Celtics in the playoffs. I wouldn't hand this series to Boston just yet.

 

[B.A.R.]

Miami was injury riddled last season when they beat the Celtics in the playoffs. I wouldn't hand this series to Boston just yet.

Sure, but Jimmy played all 7 games.

35-5-7
27-8-6
16-8-6
29-9-5
14-5-5
24-11-8
28-7-6

That's a lot of production lost.

They won tonight shooting 23-43 from deep.

Regular season 12.5-33.7

Excellent percentage during the year but nothing like tonight.

I'd expect they average a bit more attempt wise this series. That's a strategy. Without Jimmy they need to find different offense.

But, over the course of the series, we won't see anything like tonight again. Despite that, they didn't blow this team out.

This goes 6 at most.

Trust me, hope I'm wrong. BIG TIME.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Sure, but Jimmy played all 7 games.

35-5-7
27-8-6
16-8-6
29-9-5
14-5-5
24-11-8
28-7-6

That's a lot of production lost.

They won tonight shooting 23-43 from deep.

Regular season 12.5-33.7

Excellent percentage during the year but nothing like tonight.

I'd expect they average a bit more attempt wise this series. That's a strategy. Without Jimmy they need to find different offense.

But, over the course of the series, we won't see anything like tonight again. Despite that, they didn't blow this team out.

This goes 6 at most.

Trust me, hope I'm wrong. BIG TIME.

Yeah you have some good points. I'm not saying the Heat will win the series but it's not over by a long shot. Jimmy isn't there but they have very good, well coaches players.

These first 2 games were flip flopped. Game one Boston made 22 three's and won and game 2 Miami made 23 and won. All a team has to do is get hot for a couple games. Miami just made this a series.

I wouldn't mind Miami winning the series though. They're one of 6 teams i bet losing to Denver in the finals (Circa Exacta's). They would be a cool $100k profit if i can get a finals repeat of last year lol. It's just fun money. I matched up Denver in the finals defeating everyone except Boston and Milwaukee.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Is this our playoff discussion thread? Can someone tell me what on Earth is with this Game 4 spread in Indiana? I saw Pacers -8, now +7.5. Seems way too generous? Is vintage Reggie Miller being reincarnated? Post-game problems with Lillard's injury? Khris Middleton shot his arm off maybe?

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah you have some good points. I'm not saying the Heat will win the series but it's not over by a long shot. Jimmy isn't there but they have very good, well coaches players.

These first 2 games were flip flopped. Game one Boston made 22 three's and won and game 2 Miami made 23 and won. All a team has to do is get hot for a couple games. Miami just made this a series.

I wouldn't mind Miami winning the series though. They're one of 6 teams i bet losing to Denver in the finals (Circa Exacta's). They would be a cool $100k profit if i can get a finals repeat of last year lol. It's just fun money. I matched up Denver in the finals defeating everyone except Boston and Milwaukee.

I'd love Miami at win @33-1 lol

I bet them specifically because of this matchup. Just no Jimmy, probably a hurdle too steep.

 

[B.A.R.]

Is this our playoff discussion thread? Can someone tell me what on Earth is with this Game 4 spread in Indiana? I saw Pacers -8, now +7.5. Seems way too generous? Is vintage Reggie Miller being reincarnated? Post-game problems with Lillard's injury? Khris Middleton shot his arm off maybe?

Interesting.

Honestly jives with what the numbers were in Milwaukee.

Fwiw, we'll detail out to discussion threads once we eliminate some teams.

 

[EL CAPO]

Timberwolves just moved from +1800 to +1100 to win the chip....still good value imo

.....phx is making them look better then they are but it is developing wolves /nugs winner will own the west and imo the chip

I have both futures as I will die on the hill Boston is not made to win a chip with those iso players

Naz Reid is the 6th man of the year.......the nuggets don't have anyone off the bench who can score the ball.

 

[Loves2kickass]

I like my future finals exacta's more now than at the start of the playoffs with Denver defeating all East teams (excluding Boston and Milwaukee).

 

[Loves2kickass]

In a Den/Min matchup Denver should be at least -200 to win that series. @B.A.R. or someone else may have info on that line looking ahead.

 

[KJ]

In a Den/Min matchup Denver should be at least -200 to win that series.

Sounds about right

Fun as these games have been, that is likely for the championship

Maybe the Knicks can get hot and compete with either of those two

 

[KJ]

Denver would beat Minny more than 2/3 times in a best of 7 though

 

[M.W.]

I started to see some talk of playoffs and finals matchups from @Gandolf and @survive&advance in the March Discussion thread, so I'm going to go ahead and open up things into a new thread... We can use this to maybe spot a value number, find an exacta for the NBA finals, and discuss potential playoff matchups as well...

First, I'll list some current title odds for perspective...

Boston 275
Denver 450
LA Clippers 500
Milwaukee 700
Minnesota 1800
Oklahoma City 1800
Phoenix 1800
Golden State 2500
New York 2500
Cleveland 2800
Dallas 2800
Miami 3300
LA Lakers 3300
Philadelphia 3500
New Orleans 7500
Sacramento 8000
Indiana 10000
Orlando 25000

One quick take on each team from myself, and then we'll open this up for discussion...

Boston with some nice additions to this team but ultimately coaching and how the big two perform in big situations will be critical...

Denver knows how to do it and now really has settled into a playoff-style year-round -- built for this...

The Clippers on paper are the champs. Can they overcome both injuries and the Harden playoff factor?

Milwaukee downgraded on defense and now has a bad playoff coach at the helm. Only a magical two months by Lillard and Yanni could make this team have a June parade...

Minnesota has been a great story but ultimately has that feel of regular-season champs. They have an absolute 'dawg' in Ant-Man though...

OK-City with all sorts of talent, they are a move or two away from really ascending in the West. Too early...

Phoenix is not built for the playoffs at all. Denver is a nightmare matchup for them. This simply isn't a contending team; 2nd round max for the Suns...

Golden State is past their prime, although they will give someone a scare in the 1st round if they make it in...

The Knicks have coaching, a leader, and the moxy to make things interesting. Ultimately, not enough offense but they will make some noise...

Cleveland is the great unknown. They remind me of so many damn good regular-season teams. Mitchell though can elevate in a 7 game series. This is the hardest team for me to cap...

Dallas is Luka, sometimes Kyrie, and some offense... a fun team at times but not a threat to do much at all...

The Lakers have the name and stars, can they make another late season run? Will they have anything left in the tank? This is a scary 1st round opponent...

Miami has been there before and Jimmy starting to come into form again. Coaching is great, and they will be in the head of the Celtics and Bucks in playoffs...

Philly finally has a true Robin for Joel, but injuries again for the big man.... just don't see it happening for him in his career...

Sacto learned some lessons vs Golden State last year. They can make a run this 2nd half and maybe grab some HCA for 1st round? Sneaky team in the standings right now...

Pelicans have the talents. Twink will tell ya they have a few issues though. They can beat anyone, any night, and also do the opposite...

The Pacers are a blast but ultimately do not play the type of basketball that advances past the 1st round. Still, exciting matchup for a higher seed come round #1...




---------------------------------------------------------------------------


We bet Sacto and Oklahoma City back in October (5000 and 8000 respectively at BOL).

As far as their current numbers, I would absolutely play Sacto at the higher number but would not play OKC at a much lower number.

I mentioned my New York bet a month or so ago (3300 via PPH), that is still available.

Yesterday, I added Miami at 3300 to win it all (PPH). This is widely available. I highly recommend this bet.

The above odds (top of thread) are from BOL, in case you were wondering.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, go ahead and discuss these futures as well as anything else pertaining to the NBA Playoffs.

Potential matchups are so huge and how the bracket lines up can go very far.

Examples are Milwaukee having to face Miami in the East and Phoenix having to face Denver in the West.

Thinking back, both those dogged teams won last year. Again, remember that Denver was a dog in that series initially WITH the home-court.

Wild.

I see the date was March 6. On March 7, the Mavs started a 17-2 run before ending the season with two losses. What do you think of the Mavs now?