NBA Playoff Plays (First Round)...

Playing the Cavs game a little differently. Went with a prop...

LeBron with triple-double and Cavs win at +350 (2 units)

*edited: Played this 'exotic' somewhat by mistake instead of the Cramps assists + win prop that was originally posted. Was a fail either way, kudos to the king.

:popcorn:
 
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On Jizz pregame but caught up watching Bum-Bum not post a trip-dub and not cash my exotic. Pissing me off.

Hate rooting for that shit, worse than playing totals. Degen scum.

adding...

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets

The play...

Rockets -10.5 +100 (3 units)

Houston bombs from 3 this game.

Last 4 occasions this season they've been held to less than 28% 3 point shooting they've blown the tits off their opponent next game.

Winning by an average of 18.5 points.

...
 
Re-posting my spreads for tonight's games...

Thursday:

Sixers -2 at Heat (actual line is Heat -1.5)

Pels -3.5 v Blazers (actual line is Pels -3)

Spurs -1.5 v Dubs (actual line is Dubs -2.5)

Big move in South Beach, basically moved to my line. A 3-point swing.
 
emkee said:
Typo'd that one.

It's actually a 1-6 ATS run (0-4 ATS last 4) with the potential to be 1-7 ATS after tomorrow's game.

As for the straight-up record it's 4-3 SU to the road team with the Pels win.
Click to expand...

1-7 ATS it is.
 
adding...

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

The play...

76ers ML -125 (2.5 to win 2)

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

The play...

Warriors -4 (2 units)

Square. Thoughts a little later.

Lean Blazers in the middle game, gonna sit on the line.

:popcorn:
 
The Process...outta the tub and into your living rooms

kids got skillz but already a prima donna

quit the bitching about babying and stay healthy, how bout that
 
Games tonight...

If I had to pick a least confident play it would be the Sixers, young team playing their 'first' road playoff game but trusting my numbers.

Wade ain't gonna turn back the clock again and there's no sign of a Snotty Foster - T Bruv collab like there was the other night.

Think they can steal Game 3 but still not convinced they win this series.

Also road faves in Game 3 are 50-34 SU (35-21 SU in Round 1).

As for the Dubs, they got this series.

Emotion can go one of two ways for the Spurs tonight but at the end of the day the X's and O's are not in their favor one bit.

Dubs can shut down this 'one trick pony' of a team, thems the breaks. Move on quickly and rest for the next battle.

Dubs currently on a 4-0 SU and ATS Game 3 streak winning by an average of 8.6 points.

:shake:
 
Retburj13 said:
The Process...outta the tub and into your living rooms

kids got skillz but already a prima donna

quit the bitching about babying and stay healthy, how bout that
Click to expand...

Gonna be a bad look if he comes back and the Sixers lose.

Embiid being back brings Hassan back into the mix and Hassan kinda owns him.
 
Thanks fellas.

Putting up my lines...

Friday:

Pacers -3 v Cavs (Vegas opener was Pacers -2)

Raps -3.5 at Wiz (Vegas opener was Wiz -1)

Bucks -1 v Celtics (Vegas opener was Bucks -6)

Saturday:

Sixers -2.5 at Heat (-3)

Pels -5 v Blazers (-6)

Rockets -4.5 at Wolves (-3)

Jazz -5.5 v Thunder (-4.5)

:shake:
 
adding...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers

The play...

Pacers +1 (2 units)

Trusting the numbers.

Will have another play, sitting on the line.

:popcorn:
 
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8-seed home faves vs 1-seeds are 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS).

Waz worth a look and are 6-0 SU last 2 postseasons at home.

Want to see where this spread goes closer to tip.
 
Thanks fellas.

Yep, never in doubt.

On the Waz ML as well just before tip but had to do a tampon run for the lady and didn't post.

Was always gonna be a great day for the home teams.
 
I don't understand the damn purse! I dont care how much money you have, unless you are Magic Johnsons son, you dont carry no fukn purse!!!!

And did his pants get switched with Tyron Lues? wtf!
 
adding...

Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans

The play...

Pelicans -6.5 (2 units)

:popcorn:
 
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Playing the 'inflated' spread but it's warranted.

Blazers playing scared ball, hard to see this team fighting back but can live with the play if they do.

Is in the Pels best interests to roll again and rest up for the buzz-saw they're about to run into if they advance.

Most teams lay the hammer in this spot.

Average winning margin of a pre-series 'underdog' in a close-out game at home is 18 points.
 
emkee said:
Most teams lay the hammer in this spot.

Average winning margin of a pre-series 'underdog' in a close-out game at home is 18 points.
Click to expand...

Emkee: do you happen to have the stats on that? I tried sdql but it's not my strength.
 
Gaius.T said:
Emkee: do you happen to have the stats on that? I tried sdql but it's not my strength.
Click to expand...

Small sample given it's the lower seed going for the sweep in a league that's consistently top-heavy.

4-2 SU (4-2 ATS) overall since 2000.

But it's 3-0 last 3 with the home team winning by an average of 32.4 points.

Lesser seed sweeps are rare but they seem to get the job done when it occurs.

Overall home faves of 6+ in close-out games are 51-36-1 ATS winning by an average of 10.4 points.
 
And for once the meaningless shot at the end doesn’t go in. Ship it, nice call!
 
All good fellas.

Finally getting the bounces although that game should never have got that close.

Looking at the late game, sitting on the spread and seeing where it goes.
 
2-0 last night.

adding...

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

The play...

Warriors -6.5 (2 units)

Is what it is here.

Dubs have been known to snooze on a road close-out or two but can't see them not getting it done here.

Spurs just way out-classed and out-matched to state the obvious.

Will be playing the later games but sitting on the spreads.

:popcorn:
 
Thanks man.

Road faves in Round 1, Game 4 closeouts are 20-11 ATS (23-8 SU).

Dubs 2-0 SU and ATS in this spot in the Splash Bros era winning by an average of 18 points.
 
Also Spurs have the 2nd worst record in the league when facing getting swept, they are 0-4 SU and ATS.

Only the Grizz are worse with an 0-5 record.

Surprised there is a lot of love around for this team today.
 
Spurs up 14 at the half.

Weird game. From the refs to the approach and the funny spread movement prior to the game.

Scotty Foster and steam go hand in hand.

Double-digit turnovers but out-rebounding the Spurs 37-17 including 16 offensive boards.

Dubs can still roll but don't seem interested. Seems odd.

Not sure whats up with the fact the Pels swept and when Game 1 of the next round is should the Dubs sweep. Maybe that's a factor, maybe not.

So far looks like the Dubs are content to hand this game to the Spurs and collect revenue back in the Bay with a Game 5.

Said above pregame that they're not ashamed to mail in a road closeout game to cash up at home.

Mute point if they pull their head out their asses in the 2nd half and win but should they not I'll be 'martingaling' the titties off this bitch in Game 5.

Next play up soon.
 
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