Let's talk NBA Championship...and potential playoff matchups...




B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I started to see some talk of playoffs and finals matchups from @Gandolf and @survive&advance in the March Discussion thread, so I'm going to go ahead and open up things into a new thread... We can use this to maybe spot a value number, find an exacta for the NBA finals, and discuss potential playoff matchups as well...

First, I'll list some current title odds for perspective...

Boston 275
Denver 450
LA Clippers 500
Milwaukee 700
Minnesota 1800
Oklahoma City 1800
Phoenix 1800
Golden State 2500
New York 2500
Cleveland 2800
Dallas 2800
Miami 3300
LA Lakers 3300
Philadelphia 3500
New Orleans 7500
Sacramento 8000
Indiana 10000
Orlando 25000

One quick take on each team from myself, and then we'll open this up for discussion...

Boston with some nice additions to this team but ultimately coaching and how the big two perform in big situations will be critical...

Denver knows how to do it and now really has settled into a playoff-style year-round -- built for this...

The Clippers on paper are the champs. Can they overcome both injuries and the Harden playoff factor?

Milwaukee downgraded on defense and now has a bad playoff coach at the helm. Only a magical two months by Lillard and Yanni could make this team have a June parade...

Minnesota has been a great story but ultimately has that feel of regular-season champs. They have an absolute 'dawg' in Ant-Man though...

OK-City with all sorts of talent, they are a move or two away from really ascending in the West. Too early...

Phoenix is not built for the playoffs at all. Denver is a nightmare matchup for them. This simply isn't a contending team; 2nd round max for the Suns...

Golden State is past their prime, although they will give someone a scare in the 1st round if they make it in...

The Knicks have coaching, a leader, and the moxy to make things interesting. Ultimately, not enough offense but they will make some noise...

Cleveland is the great unknown. They remind me of so many damn good regular-season teams. Mitchell though can elevate in a 7 game series. This is the hardest team for me to cap...

Dallas is Luka, sometimes Kyrie, and some offense... a fun team at times but not a threat to do much at all...

The Lakers have the name and stars, can they make another late season run? Will they have anything left in the tank? This is a scary 1st round opponent...

Miami has been there before and Jimmy starting to come into form again. Coaching is great, and they will be in the head of the Celtics and Bucks in playoffs...

Philly finally has a true Robin for Joel, but injuries again for the big man.... just don't see it happening for him in his career...

Sacto learned some lessons vs Golden State last year. They can make a run this 2nd half and maybe grab some HCA for 1st round? Sneaky team in the standings right now...

Pelicans have the talents. Twink will tell ya they have a few issues though. They can beat anyone, any night, and also do the opposite...

The Pacers are a blast but ultimately do not play the type of basketball that advances past the 1st round. Still, exciting matchup for a higher seed come round #1...




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We bet Sacto and Oklahoma City back in October (5000 and 8000 respectively at BOL).

As far as their current numbers, I would absolutely play Sacto at the higher number but would not play OKC at a much lower number.

I mentioned my New York bet a month or so ago (3300 via PPH), that is still available.

Yesterday, I added Miami at 3300 to win it all (PPH). This is widely available. I highly recommend this bet.

The above odds (top of thread) are from BOL, in case you were wondering.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, go ahead and discuss these futures as well as anything else pertaining to the NBA Playoffs.

Potential matchups are so huge and how the bracket lines up can go very far.

Examples are Milwaukee having to face Miami in the East and Phoenix having to face Denver in the West.

Thinking back, both those dogged teams won last year. Again, remember that Denver was a dog in that series initially WITH the home-court.

Wild.
 
Sorting championship odds by current seeding in each conference

1 Boston 275
2 Milwaukee 700
3 Cleveland 2800
4 Orlando 25000
5 Miami 3300
6 New York 2500
-------------------
7 Philadelphia 3500
8 Indiana 10000

1 Minnesota 1800
2 Oklahoma City 1800
3 Denver 450
4 LA Clippers 500
5 New Orleans 7500
6 Phoenix 1800
---------------------
7 Sacramento 8000
8 Dallas 2800
9 LA Lakers 3300
10 Golden State 2500
 
Gandolf said:
Sorting championship odds by current seeding in each conference

1 Boston 275
2 Milwaukee 700
3 Cleveland 2800
4 Orlando 25000
5 Miami 3300
6 New York 2500
-------------------
7 Philadelphia 3500
8 Indiana 10000

1 Minnesota 1800
2 Oklahoma City 1800
3 Denver 450
4 LA Clippers 500
5 New Orleans 7500
6 Phoenix 1800
---------------------
7 Sacramento 8000
8 Dallas 2800
9 LA Lakers 3300
10 Golden State 2500
Click to expand...
Thanks for this, was doing it in my head a bit late last night.

I'll try to update this weekly or so.
 
boston is way overpriced - they are feasting off bad comp by not playing the top teams which all reside in the west. JMO - tend to think nuggets take em out tmrw

Tatum and Brown to me have just not been big moment players - and their playing style is too analytics/inefficient for my liking for crunch time ball movement and sets

Nuggets deserve to be the favorite as they have demonstrated the grit chemistry toughness and talent mix no other team has demonstrated

from a pure "talent and pieces" standpoint - i think the suns and bucks have more talent then anyone in the league. I think beal booker and durant are the best 3 in the league from a star standpoint and potential of playing together - all those guys can be non ball dominant and pass the ball - but they have not gotten that chemistry and the ball movement down and i can't even remember when those 3 have been healthy and played together - but i like all 3 more then clips 3 due to harden who just is a tough fit in an offense with other stars to complement each other due to his playing style.......clippers have seemed to falter against top comp this year do not believe in them.

Best starting 5 in the league is milwaukee - 4 all stars - waiting on Middleton.

west to me its a race between denver phx minnesota and okc - and frankly, i think phx has most potential to play with denver .......minnesota will make major noise in the playoffs, they competed best against denver then anyone in league last year and *should have beat lakers easily in play in game but lost due to head coach's offensive stall calls - don't have the head coach to win at the end.......okc is the next dynasty in the future but still think a year away, but this team is doing some crazy good things right now

East is boston/milwaukee....odds should be 50/50 then what they are. will take dame/giannis over brown/tatum all day
 
the saddest thing going in the nba right now is what dallas is doing to luka btw - easiest guy to build a team around (just put shooters around him) and they give him professional brick artists and inefficient players like tim hardaway.......after kyrie and luka the dropoff is the biggest dropoff in the nba - i actually like lively and gafford but the perimeter help to spread the floor is insanely bad
 
I trust Tatum enough now, its jaylen that I just see as a bit of a mental problem

so much talent, if jaylen struggles like he always has, KP could be that 2nd guy but that depends on health.

What they did to dubs on weekend was a statement imo

Miami or NYK vs them in a likely round 2 though screams 6 or 7 minimum
 
West is so interesting, @B.A.R. mentioned the dubs and lakers being tricky outs in r1 if they go through play in

I absolutely want nothing to do with either if I'm minnesota or okc

Lakers showed in the in season and also lebron alone the last few weeks, their ceiling is top of the league, issue is I dont think even if they get to it that it can last more than a round? Maybe 1 and a half?

They've played well vs okc this year too

I'd look at series prices for them instead of win the west or whole thing
 
OKC is gonna be fun, even with their record, feels like most people still haven't seen what SGA is doing

He and Chet if they can stay together will absolutely be at top of the west the next little while

I could see them going on a run, a little like the early thunder with kd, russ, and harden. Almost in a 'we dont know enough to get scared by the moment' kind of way
 
In the last 19 NBA seasons every NBA Champion has a past/present MVP or past FMVP (Finals MVP) on the roster. Since 1980 there has only been 3 teams to break this rule.

I can narrow this down to 1 team at the end of the regular season based on a lot of past data dating back to 1980.
 
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*Ginger* said:
In the last 19 NBA seasons every NBA Champion has a past/present MVP or past FMVP (Finals MVP) on the roster. Since 1980 there has only been 3 teams to break this rule.

I can narrow this down to 1 team at the end of the regular season based on a lot of past data dating back to 1980.
Click to expand...
Bucks , sixers
Nuggets, clippers, suns, warriors, lakers

? Missing anyone
 
B.A.R. said:
Remember these lines for June.

Also remember that odds makers made Denver a DOG vs Phoenix last spring WITH HCA...


https://twitter.com/x/status/1765973187555402227
Click to expand...

Two words...

Joe Mazulla.

When you getting schooled by Mikey Malone you are officially done.

Tatum is obsessed with fade-away step-backs (usually bricks) and crappy 3's, dude a poor shooter but no one on that staff has the balls to tell him to cut that shit.

His strength is attacking the basket.

Bro had an easy drive to the lane to tie the game up last night in the dying seconds but elected to take it behind the line, result was a brick.

Such is the state of the league right now that we are stuck anointing average players as potential 'MVP's'

Paul Pierce >> Jayson Tatum.

Jokic knows his strengths and plays to suit his game thus resulting in success...
 
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I mentioned in a different post i have a list of criteria to pick 1 team to win the championship. I’ll list the criteria one by one and i’ll need some help in finding a web link for a few criteria. I figure i can do this one criteria at a time. All criteria is considered at the END of the regular season but we can start it now so we’re ready, for anyone thats interested. @B.A.R. maybe you can help also if you have time or anyone else who would like to. If i make any mistakes along the way please let me know. As we go teams will be eliminated from the list.

Criteria #1 - Teams top 3 in conference win %

Boston
Milwaukee
Cleveland

Minnesota
Oklahoma City
Denver
LA Clippers (added them due to 1GB 3rd)

Criteria #2 - Team has MVP or FMVP player (we have to assume who it will be this season)
Teams remaining

Milwaukee
Denver
LA Clippers

Criteria #3 - Top 5 in league in either DRTG or ORTG
Teams remaining

Milwaukee
Denver

Criteria #4 - Average top 5 in eFG%, 2P%, FG%, TS%
Teams remaining

Milwaukee
Denver

Criteria #5 - NBA team win % vs teams with win percentage of .600 or better.
I NOW HAVE IT NARROWED DOWN TO 2 TEAMS. WE CAN PROGRESS FURTHER IF SOMEONE CAN HELP FIND A LIST OF EACH TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. HOPEFULLY BEST TO WORST PERCENTAGE - WIN % VERSUS TEAMS WITH A .600 OR HIGHER WIN PERCENTAGE. WHAT WERE LOOKING FOR IS THE LEAGUE RANKING OF BOTH MILWAUKEE AND DENVER FOR THIS STAT.
 
*Ginger* said:
I mentioned in a different post i have a list of criteria to pick 1 team to win the championship. I’ll list the criteria one by one and i’ll need some help in finding a web link for a few criteria. I figure i can do this one criteria at a time. All criteria is considered at the END of the regular season but we can start it now so we’re ready, for anyone thats interested. @B.A.R. maybe you can help also if you have time or anyone else who would like to. If i make any mistakes along the way please let me know. As we go teams will be eliminated from the list.

Criteria #1 - Teams top 3 in conference win %

Boston
Milwaukee
Cleveland

Minnesota
Oklahoma City
Denver
LA Clippers (added them due to 1GB 3rd)

Criteria #2 - Team has MVP or FMVP player (we have to assume who it will be this season)
Teams remaining

Milwaukee
Denver
LA Clippers

Criteria #3 - Top 5 in league in either DRTG or ORTG
Teams remaining

Milwaukee
Denver

Criteria #4 - Average top 5 in eFG%, 2P%, FG%, TS%
Teams remaining

Milwaukee
Denver

Criteria #5 - NBA team win % vs teams with win percentage of .600 or better.
I NOW HAVE IT NARROWED DOWN TO 2 TEAMS. WE CAN PROGRESS FURTHER IF SOMEONE CAN HELP FIND A LIST OF EACH TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. HOPEFULLY BEST TO WORST PERCENTAGE - WIN % VERSUS TEAMS WITH A .600 OR HIGHER WIN PERCENTAGE. WHAT WERE LOOKING FOR IS THE LEAGUE RANKING OF BOTH MILWAUKEE AND DENVER FOR THIS STAT.
Click to expand...
Nuggs repeat. 7 games does it.
 
The East is going to be fun.

The bottom seeds can all win a round this year. A lot will be about matchups.

Bulls and Hawks should just be mercenaries in the play in event. I simply can't see either winning multi games.

The middle will be fascinating to see who ends up where.
 
The final days out west will be wild. The top 3 seeds will be OKC Minny and Denver. As we get closer to solidifying the seeds, you'll see teams perhaps trying to draw the young teams (for obvious reasons).

We could see interesting scenarios the final night.

Kings start a very tough trip after tonight. I can't see them going any higher than 7 and they could end up 8.

As a futures holder, I hope Denver doesn't draw them first. Plus, the Kings are fun. I'd love to see them vs another young team.
 
Even with BI, Pels in a 7 game series probably no bueno. They just can’t beat the good teams consistently right now.

Like BAR said, watch Warriors/Lakers jockey here
 
Phoenix has a brutal schedule the rest of the way, 0.633 win percentage. Dropping from 8 to 9 is a huge deal and very much in play.

Dallas has the easiest schedule left and have already climbed from the play-in to #5 and are now pressing for home court vs LAC. LAC and PHX play a home-away series that's going to be massive for both teams.

Who owns the tiebreakers?
Top 3 - Minn, then OKC, then Denver
Clippers over Dallas
NO over Sacto
Sacto over LAL

Houston absolutely needs to win today. GS has the tiebreaker, a 3 game lead and two games hosting UTA and one with POR that basically guarantees Houston would be eliminated.
 
Gandolf said:
Phoenix has a brutal schedule the rest of the way, 0.633 win percentage. Dropping from 8 to 9 is a huge deal and very much in play.

Dallas has the easiest schedule left and have already climbed from the play-in to #5 and are now pressing for home court vs LAC. LAC and PHX play a home-away series that's going to be massive for both teams.

Who owns the tiebreakers?
Top 3 - Minn, then OKC, then Denver
Clippers over Dallas
NO over Sacto
Sacto over LAL

Houston absolutely needs to win today. GS has the tiebreaker, a 3 game lead and two games hosting UTA and one with POR that basically guarantees Houston would be eliminated.
Click to expand...
Yea PHX schedule is brutal. I can tell yall and it’s obvious but Pels staff will face enormous pressure if they are in play in.
 
I did begrudgingly add some Philadelphia at 3500 last week.

Still Denver championship to lose. I don't see much to invest in out West.
 
B.A.R. said:
I did begrudgingly add some Philadelphia at 3500 last week.

Still Denver championship to lose. I don't see much to invest in out West.
Click to expand...

As far as that Philly number.

I see 2200 at all my spots right now

I would want 2800 to play that.
 
Wild to me that Boston is priced lower than Denver.

We have two samples this year.

There isn't some wild difference in the conferences.

In fact, if Claw injury lingers or worsens, Denver path likely easier.

Just food for thought.
 
Last though for tonight.

My Knicks future is unlikely and the number is so much better now.

But, I think Brunson will lead this team to a Finals appearance if they add the right pieces the next few years.
 
B.A.R. said:
Wild to me that Boston is priced lower than Denver.

We have two samples this year.

There isn't some wild difference in the conferences.

In fact, if Claw injury lingers or worsens, Denver path likely easier.

Just food for thought.
Click to expand...
disagree here for sure. like i would take the lakers over bucks in a series
 
survive&advance said:
disagree here for sure. like i would take the lakers over bucks in a series
Click to expand...

I understand matchups.

But, overall, I just see Boston having more of a road than Denver.

In the West, these teams are not a factor for NBA championship:

Lakers
Warriors
Suns

Yes, I'm listing the fanboi teams first.

Kings just missing something this year.

Wolves and Thunder too young.

Clips the obvious big contender, but again, the Leonard factor. I guess that's really a big part of the pricing.

Dallas a WC, but ultimately do not see them winning 3 series in the playoffs as presently constituted.
 
B.A.R. said:
I understand matchups.

But, overall, I just see Boston having more of a road than Denver.

In the West, these teams are not a factor for NBA championship:

Lakers
Warriors
Suns

Yes, I'm listing the fanboi teams first.

Kings just missing something this year.

Wolves and Thunder too young.

Clips the obvious big contender, but again, the Leonard factor. I guess that's really a big part of the pricing.

Dallas a WC, but ultimately do not see them winning 3 series in the playoffs as presently constituted.
Click to expand...
Boston is going to have HCA and will be heavily favored in every matchup in the east. Their road is for sure easier and that's why they are a shorter fav overall than Denver
 
survive&advance said:
Boston is going to have HCA and will be heavily favored in every matchup in the east. Their road is for sure easier and that's why they are a shorter fav overall than Denver
Click to expand...
Agree to disagree.

Clippers only team in the West with even an iota of a chance to beat Denver.

A few teams in East can beat Boston due to their fragile-ness in a playoff setting + coaching.
 
B.A.R. said:
Agree to disagree.

Clippers only team in the West with even an iota of a chance to beat Denver.

A few teams in East can beat Boston due to their fragile-ness in a playoff setting + coaching.
Click to expand...
I don't really disagree with either of these points FWIW, mainly just disagree on the strength of the conferences. If you swapped Denver and Boston, what odds would you make Boston to win the west?
 
survive&advance said:
I don't really disagree with either of these points FWIW, mainly just disagree on the strength of the conferences. If you swapped Denver and Boston, what odds would you make Boston to win the west?
Click to expand...
That part is obvious. The West easily. I think he’s saying the layout, I.e the actual matchups with how the seeding goes in relation to each conference
 
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