Wednesday Discussion Thread

The curious case of Eflin, his out total opened 17.5 and has been bet down to 16.5, he has went 6+ innings in 6 of 9 starts and 5 in a row. At 1st glance I was like “no brainer” but it is true he been virtually unhittable at the trop and just ok in his 3 road starts. Despite that he has still went 6 innings in 2 of those 3 road starts and with rays plethora of injuries I gotta think they would like to get as many innings as possible out of him, they not in the same position they typically are where they can afford to pull starters at 1st sign of trouble cause they have days they need the pen to cover a lot of innings. For whatever reason 2 of the 3x Eflin has failed to go 6 innings were in b2b starts against the white Sox of all teams (one home one away).

I’m still not sure what would incline someone to be betting this under? Cubs bats havnt Exactky been on fire! They have scored 3 runs this series, the pitching has won them the 1st 2 as rays bats cooled off in a hurry when they left the trop! Eflin has a awesome history at wrigley, last year he pitched 6 scoreless here, he has posted 3 straight games at wrigley going 6+ and not allowing more than 1 run! Those were obviously different cubes teams but it clear pitching in this park doesn’t bother him!! Something stinks bout this, does someone know he partied all night? His day starts been fantastic all year, I just don’t see how we don’t bet over 16.5 outs? If it loses so be it.
 
Trying to decide how to go about nats, gotta be something Ff, I dunno if it better to take the +170 on Ml and trust corbin or to play nats tt ov 1.5? I like that against synderguaard but it -150 which a bit rich. I do think the ov 1.5 is safer, they gonna score 2 off the guy formerly known as thor, I’m pretty confident in that!!
 
Think Kirby might be in line for a shutout if he can keep his pitch count down
 
KJ said:
Think Kirby might be in line for a shutout if he can keep his pitch count down
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Just mentioned in VC thread but I’m a bit concerned, yanks just took apart gilbert and been mashing. Not as much swing and miss in the lineup they put out the other day amd they really working counts.
 
I had to play Eflin ov 16.5 outs and only -120, something stinks to high heaven bout this line so don’t go crazy, it not a slam dunk, elder last night was stronger for me but at -120 it doesn’t have to be as strong, I make this more like -200 so obviously think there value here. I think there at least a 55% chance he goes 6 and we only need 5.2!! Not huge difference but it worth something in the price!!
 
Also played nats Ff tt ov1.5, -150 stings a bit but I just don’t think thor going 5 innings without giving up 2 runs, nats should hit better here during day I think.
 
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Man so tempted to play oakland team total over 3.5 at +110, they actually hit lhp reasonably well and havnt seen much of anything from Shuster that says he be great!! I went ahead and trusted Braves offense wouldn’t get embarrassed again vs a bad starter and awful pen so played over 9. Crazy I trust oakland to do their part!! Lol. Guess that means there no way in hell I would lay more than 2-1 with Shuster as my starter! This could be the series that crushes chasers!!
 
I really wanted to back halo’s in some way but I’m not real sure what we get from Lynn? He has been getting better results lately, his underlying metrics much better than surface stats. Throw in having to deal with halos starting a opener, no clue who they go to after this 1st guy? Anyone know? I assume they have a guy to piggy back him that can go 4-5 innings? This could def work vs cws just wish I knew who the hell following the starter?
 
Half my Eflin bet I got +125 with the DK 50% bonus, actually used that with nats Ff tt to increase the odds to over 3-1, pretty much gotta parlay to make it worth it since max bet is 50 bucks. Liked putting nats total with it cause shaved down that -150 shit. Them + Eflin was right around +205 but with the 50% boost it made it over 3-1! Then I bet Eflin straight, waiting for nats now, if Eflin cashes wouldn’t make sense to add to the nats Ff tt, if he loses I will suck it up and pay the juice straight.
 
Did a keller k’s/Braves over for my sweat free wed bet, although sweat free my ass, I think if it loses I get a $15 free play, hardly sweat free! Lol.
 
2daBank said:
Did a keller k’s/Braves over for my sweat free wed bet, although sweat free my ass, I think if it loses I get a $15 free play, hardly sweat free! Lol.
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I get sucked into those, got a $50 freebie on Texas now

Problem with sweat free is it's a free wager which at +100 you're trying to get even!
 
KJ said:
I get sucked into those, got a $50 freebie on Texas now

Problem with sweat free is it's a free wager which at +100 you're trying to get even!
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I always parlay the freebies, try to max value and hit one out of the 2 days, initial bet then the free bet if it loses
 
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Those ones they only give you 10 bucks back on the nba sgp or sgpx I go crazy and try to put 6-7-8 things in it so it pays at least a Hundo, try to get them to 150-200 but tough on 10 bucks! Lol. It was easier when we had more games and I could combine 2-3 different ones together. I hit 2 all playoffs I think? Lol.
 
2daBank said:
I always parlay the freebies, try to max value and hit one out of the 2 days, initial bet then the free bet if it loses
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I usually do that but have learned my lesson lol

Taking a "free" 3 leg parlay turns out to not be so free
 
KJ said:
I usually do that but have learned my lesson lol

Taking a "free" 3 leg parlay turns out to not be so free
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I generally hit one with 2 tries, although hasn’t been the case lately, I havnt been super hot yet. It like either my sides/totals right or my pitchers, havnt had a stretch where getting them right at same time yet, it will come tho!
 
2daBank said:
I generally hit one with 2 tries, although hasn’t been the case lately, I havnt been super hot yet. It like either my sides/totals right or my pitchers, havnt had a stretch where getting them right at same time yet, it will come tho!
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Mine are all NBA and I did hit a couple last week. DK doesn't put odds restrictions on the freebies so I have no issue including a -400 or two but if it loses, for me, I have to make sure the free bet isn't just a toss away. It needs to matter.
 
Think I fucked up passing on dunning out total, i was all bout him ov 15.5 but then I looked closer and his day numbers wernt as good and his starts at comerica been bad. Scared me off but looking like that was a mistake early on, we see how he does 2md time thru order.
 
KJ said:
Mine are all NBA and I did hit a couple last week. DK doesn't put odds restrictions on the freebies so I have no issue including a -400 or two but if it loses, for me, I have to make sure the free bet isn't just a toss away. It needs to matter.
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Yea I generally take the free play and do a modest 2 teamer trying to get 2-3x money back of the crazy bet I lost.
 
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Now looking at going to Cinci late July when the Snakes are in town. I'll be the only person that brings three Dbacks shirts to town, I know that.
 
I like to take those bonus offers and add them to futures. Much better bang going from say 10-1 Yankees to 15-1. Wish they weren’t always $50! I do like the 50% match bonus ones up to $500 if you meet their criterias but only get those maybe every few weeks.
 
Inspekdah said:
I like to take those bonus offers and add them to futures. Much better bang going from say 10-1 Yankees to 15-1. Wish they weren’t always $50! I do like the 50% match bonus ones up to $500 if you meet their criterias but only get those maybe every few weeks.
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Yea that a good idea, especially since only 50 bucks. Never thought bout that. I just try to parlay to get the bang but like that idea! Plus it would leave me with more futures at end, I’d be taking teams like seattle, maybe even Philly, I’d say Mets but I don’t buy them making playoffs cause I don’t trust the 2 old guys, I do think their offense will get hot tho. I’ve done really well taking teams lingering around .500 at asb, so easy to make playoffs these days then who knows, just gotta get in to win or have good hedge spot! Adding that 50% to teams in the 20 or 30-1 range be super nice!!
 
I’d love to use them for straight bets but wtf the point of making Eflin +125 if I can only bet 50? Lol
 
They don’t have any cap on those far as odds I guess? That pretty sweet! I never woulda thought of taking futures w them!
 
I’m gonna start doing one every week, I’m sure I’ll prob do same team a few times cause obviously there only so many I like! Especially that havnt played great yet.
 
KJ said:
$100 max for me but no odds cap
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Mine are always 50 max, wtf? I know never had problem w odds but I mean I’ve prob not did a parlay that was more than 5 or 6-1. Surprised they let you Jack a future up 50% but that awesome. I really only like doing 50-100 on futures anyways. Especially with the ones I’m gonna be looking for around 30-1 no less than 20-1, add the 50% amd 50 bucks will pay plenty!
 
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Freaking Eflin started that 1st inning like 3 my asshole pitchers yesterday, I was about to blow a freaking gasket but luckily he has settled down nicely and pitch count well within reason to go 5.2 innings long as he don’t have another awful inning!
 
That’s how I ended up having like to win a 30k on the 9ers because I had dozens of bets $50-$250 all boosted 25-100%. Hedged a little with Eagles to get all the risks back. Doing that now with Yankees.
 
2daBank said:
Freaking Eflin started that 1st inning like 3 my asshole pitchers yesterday, I was about to blow a freaking gasket but luckily he has settled down nicely and pitch count well within reason to go 5.2 innings long as he don’t have another awful inning!
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He had a must needed bottom 2nd, and a quick third. 4th will be key as bottom of Cubs lineup is putrid!
 
Doing it with Yanks just to have a reason to cheer them on but will likely add some Mariners with the bonuses.
 
Inspekdah said:
That’s how I ended up having like to win a 30k on the 9ers because I had dozens of bets $50-$250 all boosted 25-100%. Hedged a little with Eagles to get all the risks back. Doing that now with Yankees.
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That a awesome strategy bro, thanks for sharing. Yanks prob won’t be the team I’m on, just not my style and think I’m too late. You have some of them over 15-1 I’d say you did really well!! I’ll be hunting seattle big time, prob a couple others but think I’ll do the 1st few on mariners. Maybe see where rangers are at even tho I’d be buying high. At moment all I have is twins 35-1, and of course my worst Mlb future play in years, chisox at like 40-1, that ticket might as well be in trash! Lol
 
Inspekdah said:
He had a must needed bottom 2nd, and a quick third. 4th will be key as bottom of Cubs lineup is putrid
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I can’t see him having any more terrible innings, he been way too good for that and cubs not really hitting.

What happened to steele? He musta got hurt cause he got pulled for no other reason. Hopefully a liner hit him not a arm injury?
 
It crazy the way rays mashing at the trop which is historically very pitcher friendly then they go to wrigley without any strong winds blowing in and can’t score shit! Baseball a funny game, I can’t help but wonder if rays stealing signs at home?
 
Inspekdah said:
How are the Pirates against lefties? Debating the under in the Bay.
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Man I just can’t trust Snell, that dude always a few pitches away from being blown up for 3-4-5 run inning. Another one these dudes who stuff way better than results. Fish hit lefties pretty well, although they were stoned by Gomber in coors no less!! Pads 13th in ops vs lefties, I like Garrett to be good tho. I just can’t play Snell games cause he impossible for me to cap. I’d prob look at pads Ff tt under.
 
Key to these out outings is not letting a 3-2 count end up in an 11 pitch walk. That’s a killer. Hopefully Eflin can take care of the bottom lineup easily in 5th and come out with no activity in pen to start the 6.
 
Inspekdah said:
Key to these out outings is not letting a 3-2 count end up in an 11 pitch walk. That’s a killer. Hopefully Eflin can take care of the bottom lineup easily in 5th and come out with no activity in pen to start the 6.
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We In perfect shape, despite that 1st couldn’t ask for much better than 60 pitches thru 4 with bottom order up in 5th. He goes 1-2-3 in 5th and we in there, he will at least have some leeway in the 6th id think:

Yea it the worst, Bello yesterday had 4 straight reds in 1-2 counts and every one worked it full, 1 got on and none struck out and they all went like 8+ pitches deep. Bet was dead before it started: 40 fuckin pitches despite only 1 baserunner!! Killer.
 
Boom baby! So proud of myself as the toughest part of Eflin was not being scared off by that move down to 16.5!! Just a matter in believing in my number enough!! I guess that were onto something with that 1st inning, had that been any worse who knows if he gets past 5? Fine line but no doubt the right play imo
 
Inspekdah said:
Nice on the Outs over. I like them a lot more than sweating out Ks! But I’ll ride Keller for 1u.
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I like the k’s but I mean I like them both. Just depends on the numbers and the pitcher. Some guys pitch for k’s so can’t play their out totals but they can smash k number super early. I hit higher clip w the outs but I play way more volume w the k’s. Last year I was hitting the k’s at 70% for like 2 months! Think I’m still around 60 this year
 
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