Thursday Discussion Thread

diaz, parades, and rosario all have pretty good numbers vs Cortes. Paredes easily the cheapest priced ov 1.5 h,r,rbi, was kinda leaning diaz cause i like having the leadoff man but -160 compared to -105 makes Paredes much more appealing.
 
PirateAlew said:
Same, I took Pitt F5 as well, all i can stomach with the pirates cause we know what happens when Skenes comes out. Also took the over due to pens and the situation (and a favorable umpire with Baker)

Really like the Phils and Mets again today (with the over and mets tt over as they hit gore well with a 4 ERA against mets and 7 ERA last 4 game), with Yanks Over. and toronto behind "gasman" guasman, he's better on the road and i cant trust hicks, so i also hit the over.
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Looks like Jays over is going to cash early, get more 1 more run. Now need Jays shakey pen to hold it late.
 
PirateAlew said:
thank you! thats good news for my orioles and under bets, hopefully :p
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someone hitting cubs hard the last hour, lines in this series havnt made much sense to me. thought o's were overpriced 1st couple then today they down under -120? not to mention the totals and moves have been odd.
 
The jays are so frustrating, open up a 5-2 lead and then go quiet for the middle late innings. Just stranded a man at 3rd with 2 on, only needing 1 run for the over 7.5, looks like they'll be stuck at 7. At least that means Jays win.:D
 
Haven't bet it yet but I already had figured Bellinger (Cubs) was not going to be in lineup. Can't always accept what betting percentages are for this game but the line is screaming for public to take Baltimore. My take is the Orioles are vulnerable against good lefties and realistically Steele is way better than his record. Gut call here is Cubs get the win and under. Only concern is how deep Steele can go. Bullpen is a mystery but my gut says Cubs escape 4-3 or something around there. Under 8.5 might be the best play though.
 
FadeTheHype said:
Haven't bet it yet but I already had figured Bellinger (Cubs) was not going to be in lineup. Can't always accept what betting percentages are for this game but the line is screaming for public to take Baltimore. My take is the Orioles are vulnerable against good lefties and realistically Steele is way better than his record. Gut call here is Cubs get the win and under. Only concern is how deep Steele can go. Bullpen is a mystery but my gut says Cubs escape 4-3 or something around there. Under 8.5 might be the best play though.
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i agree just not a great price to back scrubbies
 
FadeTheHype said:
Haven't bet it yet but I already had figured Bellinger (Cubs) was not going to be in lineup. Can't always accept what betting percentages are for this game but the line is screaming for public to take Baltimore. My take is the Orioles are vulnerable against good lefties and realistically Steele is way better than his record. Gut call here is Cubs get the win and under. Only concern is how deep Steele can go. Bullpen is a mystery but my gut says Cubs escape 4-3 or something around there. Under 8.5 might be the best play though.
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I agree on the total, I'm big on the under tonight as it's one of my umpire calls. The under is 5-3 with Bacon who has a generous strike zone to for road pitchers, in particular. With the matchup going with 2 Aces and that ump, i couldnt help betting it---and i hate unders.
 
-125 seems like a cheap price to back one of the best teams in the league to avoid a sweep. I'll take Balty against my Cubbies :(
 
PirateAlew said:
I agree on the total, I'm big on the under tonight as it's one of my umpire calls. The under is 5-3 with Bacon who has a generous strike zone to for road pitchers, in particular. With the matchup going with 2 Aces and that ump, i couldnt help betting it---and i hate unders.
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Not a deep ump research guy myself but this game is basically top aces. Records don't mean much for pitchers as I'm sure most know. Under all day if I'm wrong so be it lol.
 
any thoughts on At/Az tonight? Good pitching matchup, I like under 4.5 first five buying 1/2 run.
 
CPA-hole said:
Same. Snakes for me. Like how they matchup vs Fried. I played f5 only. Seawald burned me the other night
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Agree on sewald but I will say closing is all about confidence. He looked like he had it last night, and with the added boost of the Manager saying it loudly they were sticking by him, he should continue to do well. Now here's hoping he doesnt come out flat and we catch a snakes F5 and FG with the over
 
Will take a chance with Fried over 4.5 k's -142. He averages just over 5 a game, thing is Zona sits at 8th averaging over 7'ks a game. I will bite and take the over for Fried.
 
of course the 3 rays plauers i bring up 2 have cashed but the one i played hasn't yet! paredes does have a run scored so just need a single rbi, anything to sweep the card.
 
Hot take here. Angels +136 or so might be the play. I look at certain numbers and think this is the play. Books want to steer most the other way. Anyone want to counter?
 
2daBank said:
i think everyone banging the o's won't get swept drum, maybe it just ppl i know cause i been saying it a lot, lol, either way at this point i feel like it almost a statistical probability they do get swept a time or 2, the fact they only been swept in 1 reg season series last 2 years is redic! the price is at least way more reasonable today but that in itself would give me pause if backing o's, why after the jacked up prices in this series when most the bets on o's not to get swept are they so much shorter? i think they coulda easily made this -150 and still taken plenty of o's money but it def woulda drawn some cubs action from goofy ppl like me! at this price im more inclined to pass but i really have the feeling scrubbies break out the brooms.
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Great call on the Cubbies today bro!
 
SEA/LAA NRFI?

Castillo has been giving up runs in the first often lately, 4 out of the last 5. Both teams are in the middle of the pack in their respective Home/Away NRFI splits.

Kochanowicz MLB debut, scouting report below. Looks like a ground ball type pitcher.

Angels top of order, Rendon, Ward, Schnauel, Pillar - Rendon with great history vs Castillo, but Rendon is a shell of his former self.

"Kochanowicz will be making his MLB debut Thursday after posting a 1.85 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across 34 innings during his last five Double-A starts. Davis Daniel was optioned to Triple-A on Wednesday, so the fifth spot in the Angels' rotation currently belongs to Kochanowicz, but the 23-year-old right-hander may be sent back to the minor leagues if he begins to struggle against MLB hitters.

The biggest part of Kochanowicz’s development has been changing his delivery and lowering his arm slot. He features a two-seam fastball now that has a lot of run to it; it averaged 95 mph, touched 99 and in 2023, it got a ton of ground balls. It can be more effective if he can bury it in the bottom half of the zone more consistently. He does have two breaking balls, both of which still need refining. The low-80s slider can miss bats at times and the curve can be effective occasionally with more sweep coming from that lower slot. The changeup is fringy, but it shows flashes of being a solid fourth offering."

Trends suggest you should book YRFI based on Castillo's last few outings and a rookie who could blow up immediately with nerves, etc.

On the fence with NRFI -115

Thoughts?
 
Thank you seattle for another easy one, asssuming they dont blow this 7-0 lead. Now itd be great if the dbacks could wake up
 
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