NBA Playoff Plays (Round Two)...
- Thread starter emkee
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emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Pels overachieved in the 1st Round, they blew their regular season predictors out of the water.
They basically quadrupled their point differential in their 1st Round series which was a measly +1.3 during the regular season.
And the main reason for that was they faced a soft and fragile Blazers team that they matched up extremely well against, not the case here.
Teams that overachieve in the 1st Round rarely if at all translate that shit into the next round. Pels coming into this series 'over-boiled'.
Only 1 team in the past 15 years has gone on to win their Round 2 series if they got the 'upset' in Round 1.
And that was the 2013 Grizz who beat a Russ-less and very flawed OKC team 4-games-to-1.
No such luck here for Nawlins.
Expecting the Pels to return to their regular season selves and get efficiently disposed of by the Dubs in 5 games.
Also like to fade well-rested dogs in the playoffs.
Figure we'll see Scurry off the bench tonight and starting in Game 2.
They basically quadrupled their point differential in their 1st Round series which was a measly +1.3 during the regular season.
And the main reason for that was they faced a soft and fragile Blazers team that they matched up extremely well against, not the case here.
Teams that overachieve in the 1st Round rarely if at all translate that shit into the next round. Pels coming into this series 'over-boiled'.
Only 1 team in the past 15 years has gone on to win their Round 2 series if they got the 'upset' in Round 1.
And that was the 2013 Grizz who beat a Russ-less and very flawed OKC team 4-games-to-1.
No such luck here for Nawlins.
Expecting the Pels to return to their regular season selves and get efficiently disposed of by the Dubs in 5 games.
Also like to fade well-rested dogs in the playoffs.
Figure we'll see Scurry off the bench tonight and starting in Game 2.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
adding...
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
The play...
76ers ML -145 (3 to win 2.07)
Playing ML now, they should cover though.
My numbers just giving the ML a better shot by about 7%. Not much at all but I prefer to play ML if I'm making a play on a small fave when it's at -150 or less.
Better team with better rest, this should be the game that they have absolutely no problem stealing in Boston. Other road games could be an issue due to coaching.
Will drop some digits later...
opcorn:
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
The play...
76ers ML -145 (3 to win 2.07)
Playing ML now, they should cover though.
My numbers just giving the ML a better shot by about 7%. Not much at all but I prefer to play ML if I'm making a play on a small fave when it's at -150 or less.
Better team with better rest, this should be the game that they have absolutely no problem stealing in Boston. Other road games could be an issue due to coaching.
Will drop some digits later...
opcorn:
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
:shake:
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Actually about 10.2%
More habit than anything else and nothing sucks more than laying -2 and winning by 1.
Basically risk the same, just less reward.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Sorry Ryno, late response but yes.
Sims have the lowest winning margin being 6-points.
C's off a Game 7 with a short turnaround, Philly with the serious rest and talent advantage.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Looking at the Craps v Crabs series.
A few truths.
Cavs needed a 'Mr Khloe' game to advance and a super-human effort by LeCramps who coincidentally cramped up in this game.
Most unconvincing winner of a series since I can remember. There were outscored by 30+ points over the 7 games, that's an amazing stat because they actually won.
They have the worst defense of any of the remaining playoff teams and had the 2nd worst defense in the entire league, just above the Phoenix Suns.
By the numbers the Raps are a better team than the Pacers, obviously and the Cavs struggled vs Indy with HCA. They don't have HCA in this series.
Positive for the Crabs...
They're 8-2 SU and ATS vs the Craps in the playoffs winning by an average margin of 15.4 points.
A few truths.
Cavs needed a 'Mr Khloe' game to advance and a super-human effort by LeCramps who coincidentally cramped up in this game.
Most unconvincing winner of a series since I can remember. There were outscored by 30+ points over the 7 games, that's an amazing stat because they actually won.
They have the worst defense of any of the remaining playoff teams and had the 2nd worst defense in the entire league, just above the Phoenix Suns.
By the numbers the Raps are a better team than the Pacers, obviously and the Cavs struggled vs Indy with HCA. They don't have HCA in this series.
Positive for the Crabs...
They're 8-2 SU and ATS vs the Craps in the playoffs winning by an average margin of 15.4 points.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Lone game on a Monday night with lop-sided action.
Starters Saric and Covington shot 5-17.
Overall Philly 5-26 from 3, 19.2%.
Only 2 dudes on the Sixers bench bothered the scoreboard.
Bad defensive reads all night. There's no stats available for effort.
17 made 3's by Boston, shot 45%+ from outside.
Gambling history made tonight by Boston.
Is is what it is. Will wear the terrible read.
2 days off before the next game.
Can't wait for Game 2.
Starters Saric and Covington shot 5-17.
Overall Philly 5-26 from 3, 19.2%.
Only 2 dudes on the Sixers bench bothered the scoreboard.
Bad defensive reads all night. There's no stats available for effort.
17 made 3's by Boston, shot 45%+ from outside.
Gambling history made tonight by Boston.
Is is what it is. Will wear the terrible read.
2 days off before the next game.
Can't wait for Game 2.
Big daddy naught
Pretty much a regular
C’s just keep overperforming.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Yep. It's quite amazing the way this Boston team keeps winning. It's history making.
Knew they were gonna take a game or two at home, just got it wrong which one.
But then one team was gonna come out flat after their first round win and in hindsight it actually made sense that it was the Sixers.
Young team who hadn't seen the playoffs in forever and off a pretty convincing series win, they came in fat and content.
Was all too logical to fade Boston with a short beat-up roster off a Game 7 and on a days rest though.
League and Vegas won that battle last night.
Knew they were gonna take a game or two at home, just got it wrong which one.
But then one team was gonna come out flat after their first round win and in hindsight it actually made sense that it was the Sixers.
Young team who hadn't seen the playoffs in forever and off a pretty convincing series win, they came in fat and content.
Was all too logical to fade Boston with a short beat-up roster off a Game 7 and on a days rest though.
League and Vegas won that battle last night.
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
Saric even mentioned that its tough to play IN Boston because of the atmosphere. Unlike Miami since seats were half empty...
Honestly, if you want to play Philly, I'd wait till game 3. Boston has taken care of business at home so far in the playoffs and Philly has at home as well.
I'd say Boston or no play game 2 and Philly game 3 and 4
Honestly, if you want to play Philly, I'd wait till game 3. Boston has taken care of business at home so far in the playoffs and Philly has at home as well.
I'd say Boston or no play game 2 and Philly game 3 and 4
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
What your guys are doing hasn't been done before, Ret.
This is a team overperforming like no other. I guess it's a testament to playing hard, if you outwork your opponent then good things will happen.
Or a testament to just how shitty the East really is that you have a team of 2nd and 3rd tier dudes just rolling fools.
Rosier, Horford and Aron Fucking Baynes were 11-15 from 3 last night. That's insane.
I use player output predictors to get my numbers and the C's are fucking bananas, have never ever seen it before.
This season they have made the most 'degree of difficulty' shots in the league hence why I use the term 'junk' when describing their offense.
The ball just seems to go in when it really shouldn't. Even last night they were 7-9 on 'DOD' shots.
Now last night they did also get a lot of open looks due to the Sixers being absolutely brutal on their reads.
For a 'numbers' dude like me it's crazy to witness and it's consistent which is why it's becoming historically insane.
Last night they were in a poor spot no matter which way you look at it and they dominated.
I'd fade them in last night's spot 9 outta 10 times.
Squares and sharps alike (if both even exist) got wrecked.
This is a team overperforming like no other. I guess it's a testament to playing hard, if you outwork your opponent then good things will happen.
Or a testament to just how shitty the East really is that you have a team of 2nd and 3rd tier dudes just rolling fools.
Rosier, Horford and Aron Fucking Baynes were 11-15 from 3 last night. That's insane.
I use player output predictors to get my numbers and the C's are fucking bananas, have never ever seen it before.
This season they have made the most 'degree of difficulty' shots in the league hence why I use the term 'junk' when describing their offense.
The ball just seems to go in when it really shouldn't. Even last night they were 7-9 on 'DOD' shots.
Now last night they did also get a lot of open looks due to the Sixers being absolutely brutal on their reads.
For a 'numbers' dude like me it's crazy to witness and it's consistent which is why it's becoming historically insane.
Last night they were in a poor spot no matter which way you look at it and they dominated.
I'd fade them in last night's spot 9 outta 10 times.
Squares and sharps alike (if both even exist) got wrecked.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
BTW, will throw up some numbers on the Dubs play but here's a video of what Steph did back in 2016 in the playoffs when he made his first playoff start off an injury.
Came off the bench too...
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Came off the bench too...
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Round 2 Game 1 faves on 3+ days rest laying 6 points or more are 22-10 ATS winning by an average of 12 points.
Cramps 2-8 SU and ATS as a road dog in the playoffs, granted the majority were in the Finals vs Ze Dubz but he's 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this postseason.
Cramps 2-8 SU and ATS as a road dog in the playoffs, granted the majority were in the Finals vs Ze Dubz but he's 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this postseason.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Raps the stronger of the two plays, too reiterate this series by the numbers is a massive mismatch.
East is weak as piss I know but this mismatch is true.
Would not read into the regular season meetings at all.
Raps a top 5 offense and defense.
Cavs a top 10 offense and a bottom 2 defense.
Van Vleet back for the Raps meaning their bench have a HUGE advantage over the junk the Cavs have on the pine.
Coaching advantage goes to Casey who has improved a ton even though his in-game line-up management can be a little shitty at times.
Ty Clue-less is baked on meds and offers nothing.
Obvious X-factor is LeCramps and for all the shit he gets the dude is great and will put the team on his back and win them a game.
Just not Game 1 at least I hope not. Fatigue has to be a factor. Dude has barely had time to fart this postseason.
Has all the markings of a 'Circle the Wagons' game for the T-Dot so was played accordingly.
East is weak as piss I know but this mismatch is true.
Would not read into the regular season meetings at all.
Raps a top 5 offense and defense.
Cavs a top 10 offense and a bottom 2 defense.
Van Vleet back for the Raps meaning their bench have a HUGE advantage over the junk the Cavs have on the pine.
Coaching advantage goes to Casey who has improved a ton even though his in-game line-up management can be a little shitty at times.
Ty Clue-less is baked on meds and offers nothing.
Obvious X-factor is LeCramps and for all the shit he gets the dude is great and will put the team on his back and win them a game.
Just not Game 1 at least I hope not. Fatigue has to be a factor. Dude has barely had time to fart this postseason.
Has all the markings of a 'Circle the Wagons' game for the T-Dot so was played accordingly.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Re-watching the game.
C's got very little inside, was all outside defensive breakdowns by Philly.
They put all the pressure on Simmons because they know he's afraid of shooting the ball.
When Smellinnelli's falling to the side, leg-kick 3-ball isn't dropping he offers nada to this team.
Smelly has no defense whatsoever as well, if I'm the coach I'm playing him very little in this series.
Embiid was fine and did his job on both ends.
But at the end of the night, it was all about the makes and misses.
Can't wait for Game 2.
C's got very little inside, was all outside defensive breakdowns by Philly.
They put all the pressure on Simmons because they know he's afraid of shooting the ball.
When Smellinnelli's falling to the side, leg-kick 3-ball isn't dropping he offers nada to this team.
Smelly has no defense whatsoever as well, if I'm the coach I'm playing him very little in this series.
Embiid was fine and did his job on both ends.
But at the end of the night, it was all about the makes and misses.
Can't wait for Game 2.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Ugh, real shitty Tuesday.
Dubs did their thing, could have won by 20+ but chose not too.
Craps the hardest to take.
The Dot played great at the start, aggressive and focused then they played not to lose with Casey doing his thing with the rotations.
Two things, you have to make the Cavs play defense because they can't and dunk the damn ball with two hands, Jonas.
Indifferent in Game 2 but will get rolling.
Tonight's game up in a bit.
Dubs did their thing, could have won by 20+ but chose not too.
Craps the hardest to take.
The Dot played great at the start, aggressive and focused then they played not to lose with Casey doing his thing with the rotations.
Two things, you have to make the Cavs play defense because they can't and dunk the damn ball with two hands, Jonas.
Indifferent in Game 2 but will get rolling.
Tonight's game up in a bit.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
GL Em, it seems like its going to be lower scoring, if so, thats gotta be good for dd dog with great coach and team with heart.
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