***Eastern Conference 1st Round Discussion Thread***

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Obviously we have one series left to decide but lots of intrigue here...

Personal thoughts late night...
 
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Okay, we are all set with matchups here...

As an aside, I only have a Miami future in the East and will not be adding anything else...


I was hoping to get Milwaukee at 750 or better but the early number was 1200 and I am seeing an average of 1400 or so right now. The Bulls were my 'team' this year with the RSW bet and the fact I saw them ascending in the East. Injuries have derailed the last few months. This is a bad matchup for them and if they steal a game, that is great, but this one should be 5 games max.

I saw the Nets favored slightly in some early pricing but that has flipped and settled into a solid number now that should generate action both ways. We have a mostly full Nets squad that obviously would be in the top 4 or so if not for the injuries and lost home games this year. The Celtics have played as well as anybody the last few months. They have to be wondering what they did to deserve this matchup? With all that being said, this series is a toss-up in my estimation. I see 6-7 games no doubt. You have the best offensive player on the court on the underdog and he can win games by himself. What I will be looking to see early on in the series is how Brooklyn plays defensively. They really turned things up in the 2nd round last year. Can they do it again?

The Sixers and Raptors series should be one of the more interesting ones. The intrigue on the Philly side comes in the form of Harden and Thybulle. We know how Jimmy handles the playoffs, not well. We also know of his lost explosiveness this year and rather average play(for his standards). On the other point, Philly loses Thybulle for games 3,4 and 6. Even at full strength, I think this line is a bit high. No doubt in my mind Toronto can win this series. The Sixers would need vintage Jimmy and 5-7 games of MVP ball from JoJo. at 145 or better I think a small stab on the Raptors is worth it. You could also wait a bit into the series and possibly get a better number.

No line yet on the Hawks and Heat. I give a lot of credit to the resurgence of the Hawks this spring. With that being said, this is not a good matchup for them. Miami is built a bit better than last years version for a playoff run. Offense will be the key, and they should show well on that end vs this Hawks team. I'll say 5 games here, maybe 6 with some Trae Young heroics.

The Heat have as good of a draw till the ECF's that they could ask for. Milwaukee/Brooklyn/Boston will be a bit more battered by the time they likely face Miami down the line...
 
Heatles are just kinda being treated as an afterthought as a 1 seed, they are a very solid team and bam is a mismatch advantage

Raps Sixers lines will be interesting from game to game

No clue how Sixers guard raps wing play in Toronto without thybulle, also no clue how raps slow down jojo at all. They may just let him get 40+ and focus on the others

Huge coaching mismatch too
 
Assuming Trent jr sitting tonight which it sounds like he will think gotta play FVV over 3.5 treys at +105. He only shot 7 treys in game 1 but still hit 4, with them facing a 0-2 hole and if Trent not playing gotta think he likely to Jack up 10+ tonight! When trent sat for 6 games in January then a few more in March (I didn’t count the 3rd game where FVV only played 15 min) FVV averaged taking 13 treys a game! They gonna need him taking and making them if they want any chance to stay in this one.

Maxey ov18.5 points. Another coming out party for a kid I like a lot. He should continue getting good looks with raptors having to worry bout jojo and harden, really don’t think they can stop him from getting to the rim whenever he wants. I was kinda worried when they traded for the bearded clown it would hurt Maxey but he been a beast since harden has arrived. Doubt he hangs another 38 but don’t see any reason he doesn’t go for 20 every game this series:
 
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2daBank said:
Assuming Trent jr sitting tonight which it sounds like he will think gotta play FVV over 3.5 treys at +105. He only shot 7 treys in game 1 but still hit 4, with them facing a 0-2 hole and if Trent not playing gotta think he likely to Jack up 10+ tonight! When trent sat for 6 games in January then a few more in March (I didn’t count the 3rd game where FVV only played 15 min) FVV averaged taking 13 treys a game! They gonna need him taking and making them if they want any chance to stay in this one.

Maxey ov18.5 points. Another coming out party for a kid I like a lot. He should continue getting good looks with raptors having to worry bout jojo and harden, really don’t think they can stop him from getting to the rim whenever he wants. I was kinda worried when they traded for the bearded clown it would hurt Maxey but he been a beast since harden has arrived. Doubt he hangs another 38 but don’t see any reason he doesn’t go for 20 every game this series:
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FVV also got foul #2 58 seconds in so he was out most of the first half
 
KJ said:
FVV also got foul #2 58 seconds in so he was out most of the first half
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I didn’t watch, was wondering why the hell he had only shot 2 of them at half! Lol. His Trey prop in game 1 was one the few I’ve actually hit, friend of mine was texting me bitching the whole game crying bout I fucked him, then of course I knew the minute he hit his 3rd cause then he text me “we won”. Freaking douche, lol
 
Did Tucker carry this questionable tag with the calf strain into game 1? At the moment draft kings has his 3 point prop at .5 with heavy juice to over, I’d prefer a 1.5 at plus money. He historically been a excellent 3 point shooter in the playoffs and as we saw game 1 the hawks have very little interest in getting out on shooters! Game 1 looked like a freaking shoot around! I understand hawks were in a really bad spot far as playing all week to get in but they havnt bothered defending shooters all year! Tucker making 1 a slam dunk but it -235, guess we can use as a parlay partner but I’m gonna wait and see if maybe they raise it to 1.5 at plus.

For some reason they don’t have 3 point props up for Robinson or herro as of yet but be interested to see where they get lined.
 
2daBank said:
Did Tucker carry this questionable tag with the calf strain into game 1? At the moment draft kings has his 3 point prop at .5 with heavy juice to over, I’d prefer a 1.5 at plus money. He historically been a excellent 3 point shooter in the playoffs and as we saw game 1 the hawks have very little interest in getting out on shooters! Game 1 looked like a freaking shoot around! I understand hawks were in a really bad spot far as playing all week to get in but they havnt bothered defending shooters all year! Tucker making 1 a slam dunk but it -235, guess we can use as a parlay partner but I’m gonna wait and see if maybe they raise it to 1.5 at plus.

For some reason they don’t have 3 point props up for Robinson or herro as of yet but be interested to see where they get lined.
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Think I saw parlay partner! I'm down
 
KJ said:
Nice thing w/PJ is he'll be playing whether it's close or a blowout
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Only needing 1 I’m not worried bout his minutes but yea, he logged 24+ in game1, can’t imagine we see a bigger blowout than that game! Lol
 
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Trae young treys being just 2.5 so tempting but I got burnt thinking same thing gm1. I think hawks be more competitive tonight but heat play some lock down d and that should intensify even more in playoffs. Regular season meetings he hit at least 3 of them in 3 of the 4 meetings, part of me thinks he will have a strong game tonight, the other part of me afraid heat continue roughing him up and we get another blow out so if he doesn’t hit a few early we won’t get many chances in 4th.
 
2daBank said:
Trae young treys being just 2.5 so tempting but I got burnt thinking same thing gm1. I think hawks be more competitive tonight but heat play some lock down d and that should intensify even more in playoffs. Regular season meetings he hit at least 3 of them in 3 of the 4 meetings, part of me thinks he will have a strong game tonight, the other part of me afraid heat continue roughing him up and we get another blow out so if he doesn’t hit a few early we won’t get many chances in 4th.
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Would think after g1 where sitting the entire 4th made obvious sense, he won't be sitting til the 5 minute mark down 20+. Game 2 has to be coached differently than the first...I think
 
KJ said:
Would think after g1 where sitting the entire 4th made obvious sense, he won't be sitting til the 5 minute mark down 20+. Game 2 has to be coached differently than the first...I think
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I expect it more competitive, i mean in reality if he hasn’t made 3 treys thru 3 qrtrs hawks probably sunk.
 
Not sure if I’ve played one like this all year, maybe 1, lol. Anyways it the playoffs and think we need to be little creative.

Herro over 7.5 rebounds/assist -140

I dunno if I’m missing something here or this just crazy value that snuck thru the cracks? He averaged 5 boards and 4 dimes this year, 5 and 3.4 the year before., went 5-5 in game 1 only playing 23 minutes, he averages 32 min a game and suspect he be closer to that in this game. in their playoff bubble run his rookie year he went 5.1-3.7, No capalla I think makes for more chances for boards. Other than the 5-5 in game 1 he went 5-9 vs atl right before end of season and also posted a 11 dime 9 reb game vs them earlier in the season. Think pretty good value here especially if he plays closer to his normal amount of minutes.
 
2daBank said:
Not sure if I’ve played one like this all year, maybe 1, lol. Anyways it the playoffs and think we need to be little creative.

Herro over 7.5 rebounds/assist -140

I dunno if I’m missing something here or this just crazy value that snuck thru the cracks? He averaged 5 boards and 4 dimes this year, 5 and 3.4 the year before., went 5-5 in game 1 only playing 23 minutes, he averages 32 min a game and suspect he be closer to that in this game. in their playoff bubble run his rookie year he went 5.1-3.7, No capalla I think makes for more chances for boards. Other than the 5-5 in game 1 he went 5-9 vs atl right before end of season and also posted a 11 dime 9 reb game vs them earlier in the season. Think pretty good value here especially if he plays closer to his normal amount of minutes.
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Is there a situation with Herro? MGM isn't listing him on several props
 
KJ said:
Is there a situation with Herro? MGM isn't listing him on several props
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Not that I’m aware of. I’m at draft kings and they playing around w Tucker also. I dunno wtf going on. Everything for Herro up here. They just posted Robinson stuff. Now ticker treys off board but his assist and boards up: someone has to be in or out they wernt aware of??
 
2daBank said:
Not that I’m aware of. I’m at draft kings and they playing around w Tucker also. I dunno wtf going on. Everything for Herro up here. They just posted Robinson stuff. Now ticker treys off board but his assist and boards up: someone has to be in or out they wernt aware of??
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MGM finally posted, did it alone and with Suns ML
 
KJ said:
MGM finally posted, did it alone and with Suns ML
Click to expand...

Now he off board at DK. Got in before they took off. Something gotta be going on with heat lineup, or they took a bunch of money on someone?? Hell if I know, hate when this shit happens after I left house!!!
 
2daBank said:
Now he off board at DK. Got in before they took off. Something gotta be going on with heat lineup, or they took a bunch of money on someone?? Hell if I know, hate when this shit happens after I left house!!!
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Can't believe it's only 12:30, this has seemed like a full day's work already
 
These Mfers. I only got tucker into 1 play and he never came back on the board, I ain’t got any more time to wait around! I gotta take the woman to a eye dr appointment cause she can’t drive home after. Cock suckers.
 
survive&advance said:
Strus szn
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He started last game too. game1 being a blowout really sucks cause gave us no clue what the rotations and minutes gonna look like? I assumed Herro only played 22 (or whatever it was, going off memory) because the game was never in doubt, but maybe that was more a indicator of how Spo is gonna play it? Herro dimes/boards price dropping I think still value on over 7.5 even if he only playing 25 min opposed to his normal 32.
 
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2daBank said:
These Mfers. I only got tucker into 1 play and he never came back on the board, I ain’t got any more time to wait around! I gotta take the woman to a eye dr appointment cause she can’t drive home after. Cock suckers.
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THIS is what hard work feels like. Fuck it all
 
2daBank said:
He started last game too. game1 being a blowout really sucks cause gave us no clue what the rotations and minutes gonna look like? I assumed Herro only played 22 (or whatever it was, going off memory) because the game was never in doubt, but maybe that was more a indicator of how Spo is gonna play it? Herro dimes/boards price dropping I think still value on over 7.5 even if he only playing 25 min opposed to his normal 32.
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Yeah def harder to cap the Miami mins. I think huerter will get more usage for atl, assuming Miami defends Trae like they did last game
 
B.A.R. said:
Okay, we are all set with matchups here...

As an aside, I only have a Miami future in the East and will not be adding anything else...


I was hoping to get Milwaukee at 750 or better but the early number was 1200 and I am seeing an average of 1400 or so right now. The Bulls were my 'team' this year with the RSW bet and the fact I saw them ascending in the East. Injuries have derailed the last few months. This is a bad matchup for them and if they steal a game, that is great, but this one should be 5 games max.

I saw the Nets favored slightly in some early pricing but that has flipped and settled into a solid number now that should generate action both ways. We have a mostly full Nets squad that obviously would be in the top 4 or so if not for the injuries and lost home games this year. The Celtics have played as well as anybody the last few months. They have to be wondering what they did to deserve this matchup? With all that being said, this series is a toss-up in my estimation. I see 6-7 games no doubt. You have the best offensive player on the court on the underdog and he can win games by himself. What I will be looking to see early on in the series is how Brooklyn plays defensively. They really turned things up in the 2nd round last year. Can they do it again?

The Sixers and Raptors series should be one of the more interesting ones. The intrigue on the Philly side comes in the form of Harden and Thybulle. We know how Jimmy handles the playoffs, not well. We also know of his lost explosiveness this year and rather average play(for his standards). On the other point, Philly loses Thybulle for games 3,4 and 6. Even at full strength, I think this line is a bit high. No doubt in my mind Toronto can win this series. The Sixers would need vintage Jimmy and 5-7 games of MVP ball from JoJo. at 145 or better I think a small stab on the Raptors is worth it. You could also wait a bit into the series and possibly get a better number.

No line yet on the Hawks and Heat. I give a lot of credit to the resurgence of the Hawks this spring. With that being said, this is not a good matchup for them. Miami is built a bit better than last years version for a playoff run. Offense will be the key, and they should show well on that end vs this Hawks team. I'll say 5 games here, maybe 6 with some Trae Young heroics.

The Heat have as good of a draw till the ECF's that they could ask for. Milwaukee/Brooklyn/Boston will be a bit more battered by the time they likely face Miami down the line...
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Bruh dropped a JD Salinger novel on us just to say he likes the Bucks
 
They gonna keep lining maxey points at 18.5 im gonna keep busting the over. Said this earlier in series, really think he should go for 20+ in every game. I understand why they putting the total here cause he not getting a lot of volume. he continues to be ultra efficient, there def a risk he won’t continue shooting 68% from the field and 57% from 3 this series! Lol. Matter fact that surely isn’t sustainable but he is shooting a pretty incredible shade under 54% from the field since harden arrived! He averaging right under 14 shots a game since that time. Assuming he comes back down to his 54% avg on 14 shots it be just about 8 makes. Let’s be conservative and say 2 of those be 3s. That 18 points without any free throw attempts which very unlikely as he gets to the rim enough to earn a few trips to the line. Let the Maxey coming out party continue!
 
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2daBank said:
They gonna keep lining maxey points at 18.5 im gonna keep busting the over. Said this earlier in series, really think he should go for 20+ in every game. I understand why they putting the total here cause he not getting a lot of volume. he continues to be ultra efficient, there def a risk he won’t continue shooting 68% from the field and 57% from 3 this series! Lol. Matter fact that surely isn’t sustainable but he is shooting a pretty incredible shade under 54% from the field since harden arrived! He averaging right under 14 shots a game since that time. Assuming he comes back down to his 54% avg on 14 shots it be just about 8 makes. Let’s be conservative and say 2 of those be 3s. That 18 points without any free throw attempts which very unlikely as he gets to the rim enough to earn a few trips to the line. Let the Maxey coming out party continue!
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Will be on him a couple of ways also
 
Debating how to attack bucks tonight? Just keep hitting them 1st qrtr? I do not love laying -3.5, didn't mind gm1 but not sure now that milw up, could be the fact they let bulls get so close in 4th a good motivating factor to jump out quick again! no chance I’ll pay the jacked up juice on the ml. At the moment it between playing 1st qrtr-3.5 or going with 1st half -6 this time.
 
Interesting stat/site quality shot chart says that even despite the C’s defense the Nets should have won game 1 57% of the time, and 75% of the time game 2. Based solely on the quality of the shots. Celtics did make some huge 3s and Nets missed them all.
 
Inspekdah said:
Interesting stat/site quality shot chart says that even despite the C’s defense the Nets should have won game 1 57% of the time, and 75% of the time game 2. Based solely on the quality of the shots. Celtics did make some huge 3s and Nets missed them all.
Click to expand...

Make or miss league...
 
I have no freaking clue on milw/chi now with Middleton hurt? coming in I expected bucks to run thru bulls 4-1 at worst! I mean the gm2 win I believe was the 1st time all year bulls beat a top 3 team in either league! Even without Middleton I think bucks the better team but their lack of killer instinct is gross, was last year playoffs just a aberration and they reverting back to the playoff chokers of before? I suppose tonight will tell, had you told me I could have bucks -2.5 in gm3 coming into the series I woulda said “sign me up” emphatically, now I’m not so sure? Lol. I still believe bucks will win at least one of these 2 in Chicago so maybe it best to play them and then double up gm4 if need be?
 
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