3-4 games in for everyone but the Ivy, kind of what to quickly assess where these teams are at and what they've done:
Abilene Chrisitian: ATS 2-0 as a fav, 0-2 as a dog. Bad run D. Decent team vs other teams who aren't that good
Alabama A&M: 0-3 overall ATS, but not necessarily a bad team. Off a 505y offensive game vs Ark PB which is their best of the year. Won that one by 7 laying 9.5.
Alabama State: In 3 games have scored 31 and allowed 41, Unders 2-0. O not good, D not bad. Just held FAMU to 353 TY.
Albany: Best offensive game of the year remains week 0 vs Fordham. Pretty solid defenisive team especially against their FCS opponents, but playing offensively challenged Morgan State helps. 2-0 SU vs FCS, 1-1 ATS (have outgained FCS by +140y). 0-2 vs FBS, 1-1 ATS (outgained by -253y vs FBS)
Alcorn St: 3 Unders vs FCS. Have outgained their last two opponents by combined +209 yards, but 1-1 in those. PV just beat them on a walk off FG.
Ark Pine Bluff: 3-0 ATS, but have been outgained in every game. Covers have come by 2.5, .5 and 6.5 pts. They only beat Miles 21-20 (Miles outgained them by 70y).
Austin Peay: on 3-0 ATS run after week 1. Essentially won last week on a safety (were 1 pt fav at SFA). Have shown some balance on O run-pass the last two weeks. They have given up 38 TFLs on the year (15 sacks, but 7 were by Tennessee). Good 2H team
Bethune Cookman: 3-0 ATS due to the size of the spreads, 1-3 SU. Have allowed 35 TFLs evenly spread out in all games, even Savannah St got 9 on them. Have only scored 37 pts total in 3 lined games.
Brown: 2-0 ATS, 1-1 SU. Played even with both opponents in total yards (-7 and -17). Efficient O - good passing, yielding D in yards and pts (Overs 2-0)
Bryant: First cover and SU win last week in OT at Prinecton where they stopped back-to-back Philly Eagle style QB sneaks by Princeton. Have played pretty even with every team they have played on the stat sheet. Dog is 3-1 ATS in Bryant games.
Bucknell: In 1Hs scored 3, 7 and 0 pts. Only win and cover was vs VMI whom they outgained +102. JMU and Penn both outgained them by -228 and -277. Still think they are a little better this year than last when they play bad team like themselves.
Butler: May be one of or even possibly the best team in the Pioneer this year? 2-0 ATS, 1-1 SU in lined games, have played two Dll teams.
Cal Poly: Very bad team
Campbell: Not yet ready to be trusted as a favorite vs at least average type teams. Were 3-0 ATS before losing to Elon. Offense not generally a problem, Run D is a problem (everyone ran for at least 5.0 ypc on them except Citadel who had 4.0)
Central Arkansas: Good team in that next tier below the best. Can hang around vs the best teams (only outgained by -62 and -50 at Ok St and NDSU), can dominate the lesser ones (+391 and +360 yards in two blowout wins).
Central Connecticut State: Hard to gauge, were upset in only lined favorite game this year vs Stonehill, but they did comeback to tie in that one before losing on a last second FG. Beat a Dll and lost big vs Kent State.
Charleston Southern: Poor team. Outgained by -39y vs N Greenville, then outgained by -606 vs Clemson, -318 vs W&M and -460 vs WCU. I have them 1-1-1 in 3 lined games.
Chattanooga: Getting good QB play from the former UCLA benchwarmer after a rocky game 1. D has not quite been as good as expected. Over 3-1. Team is on a 3-0 ATS run after losing SU as 19 pt fav week 1.
Colgate: 1-3 ATS with lone cover coming by .5 pt. I'm sure other lines could have them 0-4 ATS. Teams generally do what they want on them. Best game was only being outgained by -19y vs Penn. HC and Nova each outgained them by 200. Have been shutout in 2H 3x this year, although they have had a tough schedule.
Columbia: Lost 3-24 at Lafayette, Won 30-0 vs Georgetown. I don't know what to make of them yet. Both games Under.
Cornell: Impressive start, beat Lehigh better than the score shows and were maybe on the cusp of going down 0-21 vs Yale, but didn't (penalty moved Yale out of the RZ and then they didn;t score that possession) - and suprisingly came back to beat Yale and even outgained them by +70y in the process! Dog and Under are both 2-0 in Cornell games.
Dartmouth: Really should've probably gone Under at least the opening number and definitely should've covered all lines last week vs Lehigh. Lehigh ended with 17 pts off just 167y of O (scored on D and late turnover set them up inside the 10 for other TD). Dartmouth has outgained both teams they played, including UNH due to a better 2H than 1H.
Davidson: Played two Dll teams, one of which they lost to somehow! Lost close to VMI to open in a game they lost badly on the stat sheet.
Dayton: Have lost 25-81 combined score in two lined games vs ILL St and San Diego. Didn't lose to either of their Dll opponents though
Delaware: Off impressive win vs UNH even though they were slightly outgained. 3-0 ATS vs FCS and every game has gone Over.
Delaware State: I have them 0-3 ATS, last week depends on your number. Lost week 1 to Bowie State. Have been outgained on the year a total of 832 in 4 games
Drake: Have played two lined games vs North Dakota and South Dakota State, lost those by combined 14-125. Also lost in OT to NAIA Northwestern State
Duquesne: 0-2 ATS in two lined games and both Overs, but were both against FBS. Beat a Dll 49-7 and had bye last week.
East Tennessee State: Have yet to score a TD vs FCS, lost 6-112 combined at Jax St and Austin Peay
Eastern Illinois: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS. They only win close even week 1 vs Indiana St wasn't quite as impressive as 27-0 score suggests. Team D can be had by ground or air, but sometimes play better. Were outgained slightly in each of last two wins which came by 1 and 3 pts. Still an improved team for sure this year.
Eastern Kentucky: Yielded 422 and 551 on D the last two weeks against a couple really good teams, but Parker McKinney will give them a chance vs any FCS on their schedule, which I have to assume is going to get easier soon (first 4 Cincy, UK, WCU, SEMO).
Eastern Washington: Bounce-back season vs a tough schedule (NDSU, Fresno, SELU, Davis). Only 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS and only lost cover vs NDSU by 2 points even though they were definitely never in that game. Were outgained by -116 last week while beating Davis (+3 turnovers).
Elon: Good vs teams they can run on, can't rely on passing game. 2-1 SU and ATS their last 3 FCS games, only averaging 346 ypg on O in those while yielding 327, but if you take out the game vs NC A&T who is bad offensive team, they allowed 419.5 ypg in their other two. Their D is not as good as numbers might suggest.
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Florida A&M: FAMU has outgained every opponent, but other than the +256 vs a pretty good Dll West Florida team, they haven't outgained anyone as much as maybe they should have or scores would suggest. "Just" +54y vs Jackson St, but they had a 28-0 HT lead in that one. "Just" +50y last week vs ASU which was more of a struggle than expected. Maybe the most impressive one is they outgained USF +256 but lost by 14 due to -5 TOs! Other than that game, they have only lost 2 TOs in all year both of which came last week. Dog is 3-0 ATS in FAMU games, FAMU is 2-1 ATS. Every game has gone Under.
Fordham: 3-0 ATS run since week 0 loss. Really dominated Stonehill obviously, Wagner did make them work for their 46-16 win (30 pt win 27.5pt fav, only +81 yards). After just 325y week 0, they have averaged 489 ypg on O and have outgained those three by 81, 97 and 240 last week. Montes 13-0 ratio hitting 66.4%
Furman: 3-1 ATS, All 4 Overs, last week stayed Under some numbers, but Over on the closer. QB Huff had 18 rush attempts the first 2 games for a net of 57y, but has 30att the last 2 for net 161y and has been the leading rusher last two. Somewhat inconsistent on D, good vs TennTech and Mercer, not real good vs Kennesaw. Could be a home-away correlation to that.
Gardner Webb: Has been outscored in the 2H every game this year. At 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS they do "feel" better than that. 21 pt loss at App St in a game that just got away from them as it was close throughout, they were only -34y. Were better vs Elon than the 1 TD margin really. In the Tenn St 2pt loss they were only 40% passing and 50% on RZ trips, did outgain Tenn St slightly and lost on last second FG. Not sure about last week (weather?) but ECU just whipped them...0-48 -259y, lost FIVE fumbles.
Georgetown: After two weeks were 2-0 with two dominating wins vs Marist and Sacred Heart. Next two weeks 0-2 and looked pretty average vs Stonehill and Columbia dominated them in last week's shutout loss -244 yards in that one! D held first two opponents to 372 total yards combined. They've allowed more than that per game since (379.5). Hoyas gone from scoring 49 week 1, to 27 to 20 to 0.
Grambling: Overs 3-0, no total vs Florida Memorial, but combined for 80 pts, we'll say 4-0 Overs. Good offense, the D have been a sieve, but did hold Texas Southern to just 271y last week. Tx Southern is also the team that lost huge at Toledo and Rice.
Hampton: Were upset by Norfolk State despite a +95y edge, then cameback to upset Howard the following week. I don't know much about this team.
Harvard: Both games have gone Over. Only outgained St Thomas by 35y (won 45-13) and only outgained Brown by 17y (won 34-31 with RB falling down at 1 yard line to kill clock at the end). New running QB, was poor throwing week 1 (7-of-19-92y), but improved last week (15-of-26-203y). Will be interesting to see them play a real defense.
Holy Cross: 3-1 ATS, 3-1 Overs. Narrow spread loss week 1 to Merrimack. Merrimack led 17-14 HT, HC outscored them 28-3 2H. Last week could've gone Over as their second to last possession with backups I'm sure was SOD at the C04. Last week was best defensive game obviously, they had been giving up 374y and 25 ppg to Merrimack, BC and Yale. Held Colgate to 280y and 7 pts. Outscoring teams 91-17 in 2H.
Houston Christian: 2-1 ATS with smallest dog role being 24. Nearly doubled their offensive yards per game vs Dl opponents last week at SELU (avg 290.5 previous two games, went for 549y on SELU).
Howard: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, have outgained every opponent...+140y vs E Mich (loss), +320y vs Morehouse (win), +22y vs Hampton (loss). Their O is converting nearly 60% 3rd downs this year. Passing game however is inconsistent with just 48% compl week 1 and 51% week 3. Bye last week. Not sure if this is for real or not, but D only allowing 306 ypg (Hampton did put up 369 6.7ypp last time out).
Idaho: 4-0 ATS assuming the closing number vs Cal and an something lower than the closer vs Lamar. Otherwise could also be seen as 2-2 ATS as those finals vs the spread were very tight. Outgained Lamar by +307, +197 vs UNR, +17 vs Cal and +107 last week vs Sac State. Vandal D held Sac St to just 2.4 ypc and just 52% completions. Very strong all around team.
Idaho State: Played an impressive week 1 game at San Diego State, only outgained by -46y in a 8 pt loss. Then got blown out at USU and UNI with large yardage deficits. Played another equal/bad team in No Colo last week and had strong game, but their run D allowed 242y 6.1ypc. Couple turnovers and very poor UNC 3rd down O look like the difference (were +181 total yards in that one). 2-2 ATS now, 1-3 SU.
Illinois State: Hast outgained 3 of it's 4 opponents by +200 ypg (270, 261, 207) - all vs bad teams, Dayton, Western ILL and Lindenwood. Depending on your line they'd be 3-0 or 2-1 ATS in those. Not a great 1H team last week vs Lindenwood only led 20-14 or vs Western ILL only led 13-9, but turned it up vs both in the 2H. Only loss is a tight one at EIU, offensive inefficiency and late game D breakdowns cost them there. Jury must still be out how they'll fare vs a good team.
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Incarnate Word: Notable, playing some D vs the likes of UNC and ACU. That may or may not be for real, but the schedule isn't tough so they can likely continue good D. Held UNC and ACU to 7 and 20 pts and 261, 320y respectively. O has come together nicely since week 1...14 pts and 308y vs UTEP. Vs UNC and ACU avg 34.5 pts and 567 ypg. Run O good on those two as well. Not really going to take anything from their Dll game last week.
Indiana State: Off bye week. In 3 games been outscored 113-14, two were vs FBS though (IU and Ball). Been equally bad on O and D. Ball St was probably their "best" so far, which ain't saying much.
Jackson State: Very uneven offensive team. 2-3 ATS. Really strong running team with deep backfield. Biggest struggle appears like 3rd down O, they;'ve had three FCS games where they converted just 14%, 26% and 33%. Their best was 40% vs South Carolina State. Also bad RZ team vs FCS (1 TD on 10 RZ trips!). Oddly they scored 5 TDs on 6 RZ trips vs Texas State. D is good - every FCS game gone Under.
Kennesaw State: Only way I can explain them is they get up for games that matter vs SoCon (heard for years they wanted to be in SoCon but were never let in). 1-1 or 1-0-1 depending on lines vs SoCon teams. Chattanooga was winning comfortably before allowing a comeback and Furman just couldn't maintain their gap on them. Only had 173y vs Tenn Tech last week in surprising 7-17 loss. Tenn Tech outgained them by -188y. Need to see if they will be reshirting players now for their debut FBS season next year.
Lafayette: One of the best surprises this year. THREE upset wins vs SHU, Columbia and Monmouth! And they outgained each of those teams as well - no fluke, Sacred Heart game was close, the other two really were not. Surprisingly good run D while their run O has been good.
Lamar: I know very little about this team I'm sorry. 2-1 ATS if you give them the backdoor vs Idaho on the closing number. Otherwise could be seen as 1-2, if that were the case, in their only cover ULM led them 21-0 and just lost interest I must assume.
Lehigh: Weak team, but actually 2-1-1 on closing lines. Didn't deserve push on a 17 last week vs Dartmouth (17 pts on 167y of O, D score and under 10y "drive" after muffed punt). Cornell was working them before they got in the back door (outgained 239-401 with garbage yards). Did beat Merrimack, but Merrimack appears to have completely fallen apart and Villanova blew them out week 1.
Lindenwood: This team can move it and score on other bad teams (WR Jeff Caldwell is a diamond in the rough). But the D is bad, every FCS team has scored atleast 43 on them and vs the better FCS teams their O struggles.
Long Island: 3-0 ATS, but the O is only scoring 27 pts total in 3 games! So naturally Under is 3-0 and all have gone under by a lot (gone Under by avg 15.5 pts). Two were vs FBS (Ohio and Baylor). Better when they can run on a team than having to rely on the pass.
Maine: Another Under team, their only Over went over by just .5 pt. 3-1 Under, 1-3 ATS. Asterisk, they have played a really tough schedule, FBS game at FIU only lost by 2, but then travel to NDSU, played URI when they were rolling along and last week traveled to W&M. So I don't know if they will stay this bad all year if the schedule lightens up. They need to be able to run for their O to have any success. And then they need to play a weak O. Struggling W&M O still only scored 28 pts on them (one of those was a short field of less than 20y).
Marist: Georgetown and Davidson won big vs them, then they upset Valpo. Really not much of an idea who they are.
McNeese: 0-4 SU for the first time since the 1950s! 1-3 ATS. It is getting better. Week 1 lost by 18 and outgained by 276 vs Tarleton. Week 2 Florida. Week 3 lost by 14 and outgained by 138 vs Alcorn. And last week lost by 3 on walk off FG and had +15y edge. Need better QB play. Coach has recent former success at Valdosta.
Mercer: Simply put, not as good as last year in pretty much every facet. Seem to want to run most of the time (avg 39 rush att per game) when they have very good WR duo, but QB is weak apparently and they aren't well suited to rely on run game. 0-4 ATS. Overs are 3-1 on most closing numbers, not because Mercer is putting up pts, but because their should-be-good D is allowing more than they should be.
Merrimack: Improved 2022 and looked to be turning a corner this year with good showing vs Holy Cross week 1. Wheels have fallen off since then. Lost both lined games vs FCS being upset by weak Lehigh and perhaps improved Wagner. Outgained in each as well. Hung on to barely cover by 1 vs HC, otherwise they'd be winless ATS.
Miss Valley State: Worst team in FCS. Have lost TWO games to Dll schools, Massey had Delta State like a 23 pt fav over them. Last week NCCU's back up QB looked fantastic against them. This is as bad as it gets.
Missouri State: Looks like a decent 1-2 team. A +32 pt line at KU would make them 2-1 ATS (lost that one by 31). Were a 2.5pt road fav at UT Martin and lost by 7 but were down big before a comeback. Blew the doors off Utah Tech last week. Overs 3-0. Strong passing team. Run D is a problem.
Monmouth: Supposedly a solid CAA team. Were off fairly strong win vs Towson (who is looking not so good), then lost by 14 at home to Campbell and last week lost at Lafayette. Run O was their strength until Lafayette held them to 1.6ypc on 36att! Tend to think they aren't as bad as last week indicates, but are on 2 game losing streak and I'd think their pretty pissed to be 1-3 SU. Overs 4-0, D was bad last year and is again this year.
Montana: Only led Butler by a single pt in the 2H at one time, won by 15. Looked ok at Utah Tech. Then really struggled with back-to-back Dll Champ Ferris State and now have lost by 14 to previously winless NAU. Were outgained by 152y to NAU and 96y to Ferris. Griz O have avg just 216.5 ypg the last two! Unders are 3-1 (only Over by single pt vs Butler).
Montana St: Everyone knows one of the elite FCS teams right now. Off emphatic 40-0 win at Weber, who probably was not as good as their rank, but impressive none the less, outgained them by 310y! Some were impressed with passing game last week, box score indicates it still needs work and remains their liability when they face off vs the best teams. QB1 Mallott still out, but QB2 Chambers very capable. RZ O really hurt them in showdown vs South Dakota State. 3-1 ATS with only a 37 pt win laying 48 to Stetson as the lone blemish. When they play bad teams they go Over. When they play good teams they go Under.
Morehead State: Have had two lined games and actually 2-0 ATS on a big line at Mercer and a medium 2 TD line at St Thomas. Were not outgained as badly in either as one would've expected either (145 at Mercer and 54 last week). I believe that both Mercer and St Thomas are weaker versions of themselves this year leading to such results.
Morgan State: Without exaggeration one of the top Ds in FCS and also one of the worst Os. Unders 3-1 with the only Over coming last week, weather and OT aided. Albany fumbled the ball running out the clock in a 17-10 game. Without that fumble it stays Under 35 and never goes to OT. Now, they have not played very good offenses, Richmond with a new QB week 1, Akron well, it's Akron, Towson did put up 352y and 5.0 ypp on them, the best anyone has. And last week Albany could only muster 258y and 17pts in regulation - that was again weather aided. It feels like a team that could fall apart because the D has given them every single opportunity to win games and the O has failed them in all but one. 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS.
Murray St: Handled Presbyterian as expected 41-10 with +288 yard edge. Then played Louisville and MTSU, we'll call one a huge blowout and the other one just lopsided not quite a blowout. They did put up 401 yards of total O on MTSU (5.7ypp). Have yet to face an equal-ish team.
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North Carolina Central: 2-0 ATS vs FCS, played a Dll and played UCLA which really wasn't fair, UCLA avg 11 ypp on them. But vs teams in their neighborhood they are real good. I don't know Davius Richard's exact injury situation, didn't need him last week, but as a 4 year starter, he is their key.
New Hampshire: 3-1 ATS with first spread loss coming last week at Delaware. RZ O has been an issue the last two vs Dartmouth and Delaware, scoring just 4 TDs on 11 RZ trips in those. Previously vs CMich and Stonehill they were 100% 6-for-6 TDs in the RZ. Laube is an all-purpose machine. Had KO return for TD last week. One of the best players in the country.
Nicholls: I really don't know much about them. Watched their week 1 game vs Sac State and thought their D didn't play bad, but the O wasn't very effective. There was a lot of somewhat unexpected scoring late in that game, if not for that they'd have 3 Unders on the year. Had two vs FBS with a bye in between so hard to know what they are still really. Did cover generous spreads vs both TCU and Tulane, but likely neither really gave full focus on them. Not like Nicholls O did anything, but the FBS teams didn't do much either, oddly both TCU and Tulane stalled when they got into the RZ on them (just 4 TDs on 10 trips vs them). One thing I see is that TCU completed 85% for 313 on them and Tulane was 73% for 258. Run D appears a little better.
Norfolk State: Have two upset wins to their name, last week vs Towson, who they outgained +102 for their best offensive game of the year all around. Also upset Hampton week 2. Otherwise lost to Virginia St week 1 and just barely missed a cover vs Temple. Vs those two in their losses they have been grossly outgained (-183 to Vir St and -292 vs Temple). Seem like the definition of unpredictable.
North Alabama: Have led at HT in all but one game this year, and led at HT in 2 of their 3 losses. They have been shut out in the 2H twice and held to 3 twice. 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-0 ATS as a fav so 2-2 ATS as a dog. Their D does generate a good number of TOs a game, but the O has trouble giving them away as well. They can blow leads, they can comeback, turn a would-be blowout into a close game or make a close game end in a blowout loss - in someways they can do it all in one game even (see Chattanooga, Tarleton and UT Martin games - led by DD in each, then later trailed in each, then won by DD or lost by DD).
North Carolina A&T: Really bad O, avg just 171 ypg and 25 total pts vs UAB, NCCU and Elon. Massively outgained in each. Their best game was the rivalry vs NCCU, close 1H, but NCCU shut them out 2H and still outgained them by -138. 0-3 ATS, Unders 3-0
North Dakota: I might want to call them a bend, don't break D. Even vs Drake and vs NAU they would allow some drives and yards, but not many scores. NAU got some in the 2H after North Dakota was up big though. Boise handled them, after 652y and 448y vs the first two, Boise held them to just 183 total yards and outgained them by -211. What Boise D did I might think the top shelf FCS teams can also do, but I also feel like they have some pieces on O to be better than that in upcoming games. Overs 3-0
North Dakota State: To be blunt, this may actually be the best team in the country this year. No disrespect to the defending champs who now have a pretty good win streak going against the Bison, but 2023 NDSU team is outstanding. They are significantly better and that is saying something for a team that lost in Frisco last year. They did allow a backdoor cover vs Central Ark so they beat them more impressively than the final, however also had to front door vs Maine in a game they seemed not quite at their best. Still outgained an improved EWash team by +176, outgained Maine by +233 and at one point led UCA 49-17. QB Cam Miller is playing way better this year and they are also getting backup Cole Payton action who is a game breaker running.
Northern Arizona: 1-3 SU after beating Montana as a 17pt home dogs, which is odd because the week prior NAU was beat at home as 11.5 fav (lost 5 TOs in that one, think Utah Tech had 2 direct D scores off them). NAU backdoored vs North Dakota, but I kind of feel their overall play in that one deserved it. O has put up 445y on ND, 449y on Utah Tech and 396y on Montana and they can do it with some balance. Their D was really a surprise last week vs the Griz holding them to just 244y and 14 pts. Tend to think that is an aberration, but on O they can get things done.
Northern Colorado: Were outgained by over 300y in each of their first 3 games (ACU, UIW, Wazzou). Only were outgained by 64y last week at Idaho State and are showing some signs of life the last 6 quarters with 35 pts vs 25 pts the previous 10 quarters. The D is still a major problem. Their best game was allowing 429 and 6.0ypp, but that was their last game. It was also just Idaho State.
Northern Iowa: After turning it over 8x and being sacked 10x in their first two games vs ISU and Weber with Day completing just 53% of his passes, they righted the ship vs Idaho State with +181 yard edge, no sacks allowed, no turnovers lost while Day hit 73% for 388 and a 41-17 win. Off bye now enter MVFC play. What will that look like?
Northwestern State: Don't know much but they look bad. 1-2 ATS thanks to only a 25 pt loss catching 35 week 1 vs ULL, they were outgained -242 in that one. Ougained by -154 in a 30 pt loss to LaTech and outgained by -246 in a 34 pt loss to SFA. Threw 6 INTs the last two games. Off Bye.
Penn: Had a good season last year and open 2-0 both SU and ATS this year, one Under one Over. Have held Colgate and Bucknell to a total of 68y rushing on 51att. Having some trouble finishing drives in the RZ, scoring 8-of-11 overall but just 5 TDs. Only outgained Colgate by +19, much better vs Bucknell +277.
Portland State: Hard team to gauge. Big loss vs Oregon, played pretty well vs a WYO team perhaps hungover. Beat NAIA 91-0 with a 21-2 FD edge and led Cal Poly 52-14 at HT before winning 59-21. Have ougained the NAIA and Cal Poly by combined 675y, 233 of which was vs Cal Poly. Feel like they aren't a bad team, maybe an average .500-ish type team just hard to say really with those results.
Prairie View A&M: 1-1-1 ATS, 2-1 SU after small road upset at Alcorn last week, although they were outgained by -71 there and -31 in their other win vs Texas Southern with the ypp advantage also better for the opponents in those 7.4 to 5.3 and 6.4 to 5.8. ACU beat them 45-16, however of note they had 301 (5.0) rushing yards in that one! Total outlier as they ran for just 126 (3.6) and 180 (3.4) in the other two. I've never seen them play, I tried to watch the ACU game, but couldn't.
Presbyterian: One of the worst teams still, but surprisingly they are 2-1 SU with wins vs Virginia Lynchburg (who was 0-10 last year) and in a huge upset won at Wofford, not huge now I suppose since Wofford is pretty bad, but still, pretty big as they were 31 pt dogs! And they actually outgained Wofford by 95y. But Murray State beat them 41-10 with a 484-196 yardage difference. The Blue Hose as they are called has to still be pretty bad.
Princeton: Started the year as they played all of last year, Under. Under 2-0 this year and Unders are actually on a 12-0 run in Princeton games! Downgraded offense from last year that isn't going to blow anyone away. The D can still be solid. San Diego and Bryant have struggled to find wins so the fact they only beat one of them by 11 and lost to the other in OT says something.
Rhode Island: Games like the loss at Villanova last week are why URI has been left out of the playoffs the last two years despite 7-4 records. Nova took it to them with a 218 yard edge in the 35-9 game. No doubt weather effected the pass heavy URI O and my suspicion from the Maine game was that URI could be run on. Maine just wasn't the best team to expose that, Nova did for 287y and 6.7ypc. Not a good defense and generally not a good running team either.
Richmond: Won last week ending the game on their 3rd string QB. Were somewhat fortunate to win at Stony Brook perhaps as a missed xpt was key in their 1 pt win. Are 2-2 after playing some pretty weak FCS teams overall. Morgan is a good D, but they lost to them week 1 anyway. Wins vs just Delaware St and the 20-19 win vs Stony Brook...the D has done what it is supposed to vs this schedule, but can't believe they are really a good team.
Robert Morris: The week 2 upset over St Francis looked really big, but St Francis is now 0-4 so maybe not. Robert Morris does appear to be a slightly improved team, they are actually 2-2 SU, 3-0 ATS only losing by 35 catching 46 at AF (outgained -313) and backdooring vs YSU to lose by 20 catching 31 (outgained -305).
Sac State: Kaiden Bennett at QB has been pretty terrific for them. 3-1 SU, but just 1-3 ATS with their only cover being the Stanford win. Had +148y edge at Nicholls but won by just 14, think Nicholls scored late in that one. Had nearly +300y edge vs Tx A&M Commerce, but only won 34-13 laying 34.5. The game vs Idaho had some sloppy moments by both teams, Idaho got up by 10 on a few occasions but Sac State kept rallying. Idaho did hold them 164y below their season average. So maybe Sac St just played some weaker teams to open 3-0 and they really aren't that good? I mean they are still good, but not upper level Big Sky good.
Sacred Heart: Got first win and cover of the year as 10 pt dog at St Francis. They are a decent running team vs equal type opponents, passing consistently is a problem, no INTs last week, but threw 6 in the first 3 games and the INTs absolutely killed them vs Wagner as they outgained them 342-219 yet lost that one. Week 1 was a pretty close game with Lafayette. This isn't a bad team, but not a good one either.
Samford: Samford was outgained in I think atleast 4 of their wins last year, they are not getting that kind of good fortune this year. They are 1-2 ATS and that win was a 32 pt loss getting 37.5 at Auburn. Really have not looked good in any game except for their week 1 Dll win. 1-3 SU. Other than week 1, D is allowing 509.5 ypg and that doesn't include Auburn's 562.
San Diego: Had a really rough start to the year, losing to Cal Poly and Colorado Mesa, but then were able to ugly the game up vs Princeton for just a 11 pt loss (outgained -205) and last week finally got their first win vs Dayton and the box score shows it was a pretty good win, of course being the beneficiary of +6 turnovers in one game certainly helps, still had +116 yard edge there. Last week was their first Over, but with all the turnovers it is easy to see how (two short field scores and a pick-six). 1-3 SU, 2-1 ATS. Despite two straight covers, they are likely still bad.
Southeastern Louisiana: 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS with only cover vs South Alabama. Did play a tough schedule, until last week that is. First 3 games must've taken a toll and they lay an egg in the home opener vs Houston Christian as a 28 pt fav and end up being outgained by -189y. Would seem as if they have multiple issues, unknown if any can be resolved.
Southeast Missouri St: Hard to believe just 1-3 SU after letting two wins slip through their hands in the final seconds vs SIU and EKU. SIU did outgain them by 200y and EKU outgained them by 100y, but bottom line SEMO fumbled very late in each allowing their opponent to beat them by the narrowest of margins. They only have 2 TOs lost on the year and those are the 2. Not as good of a rushing O team as I would've thought, just 150y total and 2.5 ypc the last two games. Not sure where they go from here. SIU and EKU are quality teams, had them both beat.
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Steven F Austin: Two wins vs bad teams outgaining them by +240 and +250, SFA D excelled in those. Lost a lower scoring struggle vs Austin Peay last week that was played even on the stat sheet, a late game safety was the difference. Last 3 have gone Under by a good bit. Not a real good offensive team despite scoring 30-40 pts 3x.
South Carolina St: It's been a struggle until they got to play Citadel last week who they beat 31-10 and outgained them by +354! They are, or were, an offensively limited team and likely still are. D vs teams their own size is good. Unders 4-0, kind of surprised to see them 3-1 ATS (covered big spreads vs FBS).
South Dakota: I'm curious to see if this team can be good enough to upset some middle-pack teams in the MVFC, but I'm cautious because their wins have come vs just St Thomas and Lamar. They won comfortably and looked good in both, but not necesssarily super. 3-0 ATS. Unders 2-0-1 (pushed Mizzou game, went Under in others because held St Thomas and Lamar to combined 6 pts).
South Dakota State: Was everyone's pick to go unbeaten and repeat as national champ. The Montana State game gave a little pause to that thinking, although they rallied in the 2H and the Bobcats are really good so don't want to hold a close game there against them. I've heard some say they think their interior DL is weaker this year. They played a Dll and Drake in their other 2 games. Not a good resume so far, but obviously this is an elite team loaded with experience.
Southern: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS with all 3 games vs fellow SWAC members. Very limited offense, defense is better, but vs a good team their D can be had.
Southern Illinois: Very experienced team which has led to some impressive wins, 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS with non-cover being the comeback at SEMO which was a crazy game. They beat Northern Illinois due to their defense as NIU outgained them by 141 and SIU O did struggle in that one. Opposite vs SEMO as SIU held a +206 yard edge in their 1 pt win. On the year just 8-of-34 3rd down conversions. Their O should get more consistent and their D has proven themselves.
Southern Utah: Opened with two FBS and Davis all on the road and all 3 covers as sizeable dogs. Won and covered home opener vs W ILL, but needed some late 4Q scores to get it. 4-0 ATS, Unders 3-1. Pretty solid all-around team.
St Francis: 0-4 SU and ATS, preseason expectations would've been 2-2 probably. Have played somewhat close in their dog roles vs better teams. The big shocker was home loss as 20 pt fav to Robert Morris where they were -154 total yards. Last week was their best offensive game, but still lost to SHU on a walk off FG. I would think they go on a win streak at some point, but can't want to lay pts with them.
St Thomas: St Thomas previously had been dominating Pioneer league but is ineligible for autobid as they move from Dlll to FCS. This is not the same team and you can see it in games vs Black Hills and Morehead which were 10 pt and 7 pt wins. 1-2 ATS, lone cover by .5 pt on closing number at South Dakota in a game they were shut out in. They are young at QB and it's holding them back. The D isn't bad for who they are. Will be interesting to see what happens in league play this year.
Stetson: Not like they were good last year, but I feel like they are worse this year. Opened with two NAIA teams, beat one in OT. Covered huge number at Montana St and then trailed Butler by 7-14 most of the game, rallied late and ultimately lost by 10. Best comparison is the Butler game I'd say and Stetson was outgained -118. Not a good run team, so if their QBs are off, they will struggle. Their D is below average. Still probably not the worst team in the Pioneer.
Stonehill: 2-2 SU and ATS. Had a good run going with an exciting road upset at CCSU, another road upset at Georgetown, but Fordham sent them back to reality last week. Vs playoff caliber teams in UNH and Fordham have lost by combined 17-95 and outgained by -240 and -272 in those. Actually outgained very slightly in their two wins as well. So it depends who they play as for how they will fare. Fade vs good teams, potential play vs weak teams.
Stony Brook: Similar to Stonehill without the wins, fade vs good teams, potential play vs weak teams. 3-1 ATS, 0-4 SU. Covers vs URI, Ark St and Richmond, but have been significantly outgained in all games (avg 157). Maybe weaker overall than Stonehill.
Tarleton St: I'll give them a pass for the sleepwalking win vs SW Baptist last week. Schedule has been weak with week 1 52-34 win vs McNeese who has been struggling, then trailed North Alabama by DD in the 3Q, but won by 21 with some strange happenings and had a bye. 2-0 ATS, not real sure how good they are, they may not be as good as their record and results suggest. They have lost atleast 3 TOs in every game this year (6 INTs in 3 games).
Tennessee State: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS depending on the Ark PB line, could be 2-1 ATS at a better number there. That game was 14-0 HT and got closer in the 2H for a 10 pt TSU win on a line I had at 10.5. The big win was beating Gardner Webb on a last second FG 27-25. That game was competitive throughout. Is that game indicative of the real TSU? Probably played over their heads that game, but they aren't bad, may be kind of average?
Tennessee Tech: Were 0-3 ATS and SU before their surprising 17-7 win vs Kennesaw last week. Their game vs North Alabama was somewhat close. Looks like they play good D vs FCS teams, even Furman "only" had 384 yards on them but short fields and lots of TOs contributed to them losing that one 10-45. For comparison they have held N Ala and Kennesaw to 259 (4.2) and 173 (3.1) and 20 and 7 pts respectively. So not a good offensive team, maybe solid D. Last two games went Under by a ton.
Texas A&M Commerce: Never seen them, but 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS. Were outgained very badly week 1 and 2 vs Davis and Sac St. Had bye and nearly pulled off win at ODU. I really have no idea what they are.
Texas Southern: 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS. Got drubbed by combined score of 10-130 vs Toledo and Rice. Have held better vs PV (lost by 3 in OT) and Grambling (lost by 12). Not a team anyone would want to back I don't suspect.
The Citadel: Another very rough team with a first year HC and a philosophy change. 0-3-1 ATS. South Carolina St just beat them by 21 with a 556-202 TY edge. That says a lot. Been held to 200 or fewer yards of total O in 3 games.
Towson: Only win vs Morgan St, 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS because they covered big number week 1 vs Maryland. Monmouth beat them pretty good and Norfolk St of all teams beat them 21-14 with a 443-341 yard edge. That has to be rock bottom, not sure if they get better or stay the same. I don't think they were supposed to be awful.
UC Davis: Biggest story is going to be the loss of super RB Lan Larison who had over 200y rushing on EWU last week in just 3Q. He was a big part of their offense. So lost to EWU, were not impressive vs Southern Utah and SUU made a lot of mistakes in that one and Davis still only beat them 23-21. This is a team that underachieved last year and they do not look like anything special this year. 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS.
UT Martin: Pretty strong team. Trailed N Ala at HT last week 10-21, but dominated 2H and scored late to win 37-21. Blew out HCU and had big lead on Missouri St then hung on to win. Didn't play awful at Georgia either week 1. 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS. Outstanding running game, passing is hit or miss, mostly miss. Good D for the most part.
Utah Tech: Kind of mysterious team. Lost big at Montana St and were outgained by 329y. Only outgained by 36y vs Montana and had a chance to backdoor. Took it took NAU for big upset road win and then got crushed by Missouri St last week. Turnovers are the story, they average losing 3.67 in their losses. Vs NAU they lost 0 and gained 5. Overs are 3-1 because either their opponent scores a bunch on them, or the one game, Utah Tech did a ton of scoring. The Under was Montana who isn't great on O but still good enough on D at times to limit a below avg O like this team.
Valpo: Were outgained by -276 at YSU to open. Then have played close games vs an NAIA and Marist. They are probably what you think they are.
Villanova: Very good team especially given the right circumstances and opponent. Capitalized off weak opponents to open the season. Did not compete well at all vs UCF falling in a big hole (trailed 0-34 HT!). Then they played a URI team that was good matchup for them (one dimensional URI team in bad weather with suspect D). So there they are 3-1 SU and ATS, 3-0 in both vs just FCS. Have won their FCS games by 26.7 ppg. QB runs and throws. D has shut down the likes of Lehigh, Colgate and Rhode Island (weather aided). Pretty good team, but I wonder just how good...
---------Part 6---------
VMI: Feel like this team has potential but just aren't that good yet. Not sure it shows up this year or next. Just 1-3 ATS on closing numbers with only cover being big spread at NC State. Should've won big week 1 vs Davidson, didn't. Lost straight up at Bucknell which is never good. Beat Wofford last week by 3, but were outgained by -127 in a slow limited number of play for both team game. Their O struggles to stay on the field and sustain drives. Were banged up at QB, but week 1 starter returned last week. So just on the surface, 5 pt win vs Davidson, lost by 8 to Bucknell and won by 3 to Wofford. Draw your own conclusion.
Wagner: 3-1 ATS with two upset wins the last two weeks vs Sacred Heart and Merrimack. So not the greatest but pretty good for them. It's a team that has gotten better each week really, however they are still pretty limited offensively, just 219 and 288 TY of O the last two weeks in those wins.
Weber St: I thought they were going to be down, then were looking pretty good and then got shutout at home to Montana St with a -310 yardage deficit. Bottom line, they aren't good at QB. They need to run the ball and they excell on special teams and are opportunistic on D. So vs uneven offensive teams and weaker defenses they should still be pretty good.
Western Carolina: One of the best teams of 2023 not in the MVFC or Big Sky. Really didn't play that bad vs Ark week 1 despite the score. Then have two dominating home wins vs Samford and Charleston Southern and a tough road win at EKU. 3-1 ATS, totals are 2-2.
Western Illinois: This is their last year in the MVFC as they move to Big South/OVC which is a better fit. Weak team, but not completely awful. Can't run but can pass on most. Were competitive vs both Southern Utah and Illinois St, but ultimatley lost both by 3 scores. Had 17 pt lead on Lindenwood but lost. So that kind of team. 1-3 ATS, totals 2-2.
William & Mary: One of the best defenses around - have allowed a TOTAL of 371 total yards their last 3 games! Campbell did put up 310 on them, so they suffocate weak teams, which the last 3 all were. Vs a better team? We'll see. Big problem on O for them right now. Just scoring 66 pts combined in their last 3 and those are some of the weakest teams they will play all year. Something is off with their O and it is in the passing game. Good team, but suspect right now. 1-3 ATS, 3-1 Unders
Wofford: Continue to circle the drain. 1-3 ATS due to a 3 pt loss at VMI as 4 pt closing dog. Loss to Presbyterian two weeks ago is an embarrassment to the tradition of Wofford football. The VMI game was probably their best all year, not saying much, but they aren't complete dead atleast.
Yale: 0-2 SU and ATS. Lost to Holy Cross to open, no shame in that. Blew lead and let Cornell come back to beat them is a shocker. Cornell has been improving, a close game, maybe, a home loss to them, no. There was bad weather, but Cornell was able to make plays through the air while Yale was not. That was the difference. This is still a good team, but they are not and were never a dominant team that preseason Ivy poll pickers were implying them to be. The Ivy is a very competitive league and Yale is good, but nobody in the Ivy is head and shoulders above the other teams.
Youngstown State: Blew out Valpo, competed well at Ohio State and didn't play a clean game vs Robert Morris. Have yet to play a good complete game, but have shown it all in moments, just have to put it all together. Their D can get after it with negative plays and turnovers. Good special teams and an O that is better at running than passing, but the passing game is actually pretty decent as well. Penalties and timely mistakes have hurt them so far this year. Not sure if they are an upper 1/4 MVFC team or not, but they have the potential to do it. Capable of beating or competing with anyone on their schedule and that include South Dakota St in my opinion. But also capable of losing at UNI this week which historically has been a house of horrors for the Penguins.
Done! That took a lot more time than I thought. But that's the run down on the FCS teams how they've played and how I see them.
