Week 7 in the FCS
- Thread starter s--k
- Start date
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No…so much to keep up with…
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Now -3
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Now -1.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Not familiar with it…would be curious to know if it had accurate records of the opening lines or no?
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Looks like it does. When you click on the game it shows the earlier lines. Like it does show Lafayette -17 vs Georgetown as the first line. It shows all other openers I saw that moved. But weird that when there are lines right now on Heritage that those lines wouldn't be listed on there.
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PV at PB - neither of these teams do much on O. PB vs FCS has gained 331, 302, 329 vs FCS (latest to oldest game). PV just 280, 303, 302, 464 (vs NW St) and 240 vs FCS. PV has been outgained in every game this year except NW State. Vs SWAC they are being outgained by an avg of 89 ypg. SWAC Ds aren't much match for UIW who put up 56 on them. Grambling 24, Southern 31, NW St 31 (2 pick-sixes and 10 other pts with limited O), Texas So 27.
Due to a weaker D PV has gone Over 4 of those 5 with an average total of 53.9. PV O only contributing 26.8 ppg (was a 9 pt output but also an OT game to even it out). PB has gone Over all 3 vs FCS avg total of 57.3 although PB is only avg 24.3 in those. Their D gives it up and they have been outgained by an avg of 185 in the 3 FCS games. Offensively challenged Tenn State hung 41 on them and a good UCA team put up 56. Alcorn 38 last week (those 3 opp avg 506 ypg on PB's D).
PV is pretty average to maybe below average SWAC O and PB is poor. Neither D is good. I don't think I trust these offenses to get an Over even vs eachothers weak defenses, and I also can't trust a team like PV laying pts on the road. PB is 2-1 ATS as a dog this year, although both covers were losses by low DDs and they covered thanks to 18.5 and 14.5 pt spreads. This line tonight is only 7.5. PV actually was only favored once all year (yes they were dogged at NW State) and their lone fav role week 1 they lost straight up to Texas Southern 9-27.
I'll take some +7.5 with the home team here for the heck of it. Two bad teams play, maybe an upset too. I don't see any redeeming qualities in this PV team. PV did win 38-14 as 11.5 pt home fav last year (+348 ttl yards) - they somehow found themselves in the SWAC title game as a few teams lost the final week or two as I recall elevating them to that spot. Maybe this line is reflection more of last year than this year. Resume to date doesn't justify it. Maybe historical PR does.
Edit BOL showing 9. Maybe goes up more elsewhere
Due to a weaker D PV has gone Over 4 of those 5 with an average total of 53.9. PV O only contributing 26.8 ppg (was a 9 pt output but also an OT game to even it out). PB has gone Over all 3 vs FCS avg total of 57.3 although PB is only avg 24.3 in those. Their D gives it up and they have been outgained by an avg of 185 in the 3 FCS games. Offensively challenged Tenn State hung 41 on them and a good UCA team put up 56. Alcorn 38 last week (those 3 opp avg 506 ypg on PB's D).
PV is pretty average to maybe below average SWAC O and PB is poor. Neither D is good. I don't think I trust these offenses to get an Over even vs eachothers weak defenses, and I also can't trust a team like PV laying pts on the road. PB is 2-1 ATS as a dog this year, although both covers were losses by low DDs and they covered thanks to 18.5 and 14.5 pt spreads. This line tonight is only 7.5. PV actually was only favored once all year (yes they were dogged at NW State) and their lone fav role week 1 they lost straight up to Texas Southern 9-27.
I'll take some +7.5 with the home team here for the heck of it. Two bad teams play, maybe an upset too. I don't see any redeeming qualities in this PV team. PV did win 38-14 as 11.5 pt home fav last year (+348 ttl yards) - they somehow found themselves in the SWAC title game as a few teams lost the final week or two as I recall elevating them to that spot. Maybe this line is reflection more of last year than this year. Resume to date doesn't justify it. Maybe historical PR does.
Edit BOL showing 9. Maybe goes up more elsewhere
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carolinablue
College Football Guru
My Harvard vs Cornell over looking solid so far. Have watched the entire first half and it has actually been really entertaining.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Solid indeed. Fun game so far.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Actually took the over when it came out (actually dropped a couple since then) as I see both teams playing in the 30’s due to the poor defenses on both sides.
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Goodbye to Romance College Football
Stonehill at Long Island - LIU was 3-1 ATS vs FCS this year, 3-0 ATS as dogs showing some competitiveness in covers vs 3 CAA teams, then Duquesne had their way with them last week for their worst FCS game of the year. LIU O was very sluggish to start and rotated QBs sometimes in the same possession. Stonehill has scored 10 at SB and 6 at UNH and only 7 last week at home off a bye vs Wagner. Somehow they scored 35 vs SHU with a season high 418 ttl yards (6.9). They had just 192 (3.0) on Wagner last week. So LIU is a team that has shown improvement this year vs a weak Stonehill team. A better Stonehill team that played very well down the stretch to close last year beat LIU 40-23 in the ssn finale. Have to figure that this year LIU takes care of business here, but I'm not trusting them to cover what, 8.5 and no interest in trying Stonehill in this one.
Dartmouth at Yale - I did take just a little Dartmouth +3.5 yesterday just because of the number, but not sure I really like them at anything less. I do need to give them credit for last week as I did not expect them to win that game vs Penn and they were just better and might be better overall this year than I expected, mostly defensively which I thought they would regress there. Offensively they should have what it takes. Beat some weak opponents Merrimack (barely, just 280 ttl yards of O) and Fordham (easily) before that. Yale not the typical Yale only beating CCSU by 1 and losing to Cornell by 24! Because of the Yale differences can't draw much comparison to any previous years, Yale has won the last two. Not sure they deserved it last year. Dartmouth has done more this year and no credable case can be made to endorse Yale. Still I don't really like this game.
Mercyhurst at CCSU - CCSU easy covers as dogs of +14, +20.5, +11.5 and +23.5...now they get the DD fav role! They did outgain all three of their FCS opponents this year and the straight up losses were last week to Yale by 1 and then by 4 to UMass. Mercyhurst lost to Frostburg St last time out and also only beat Wheeling by 3 week 1. Montana State and Robert Morris were blowouts. Played a weird game vs Howard where they trailed 3-21 but then led 31-29 and ended up losing. The kind of season CCSU has had we'd all assume they win, but is anyone laying 17.5 with them? Suppose I would if I had to.
Davidson at Dayton - Dayton owns this series. They are 14-2 since 2004 including last year's 45-14 win as 13.5 pt road dogs, in a game Davidson needed for the Pioneer Title! Only 3 of the games have really been close. Of late Dayton has been dogged in all the lined games I see, this year Dayton currently 4.5 pt favorite. Think I heard that Davidson has played 5 different QBs this year. Current starter is a converted DB I believe. It's all on the ground as it typically is for Davidson, they'll only attempt about 12 passes if they have their way looking to run for 350+. Vs Pioneer teams, Davidson has got up 21-0 each of the last two weeks, but allowed opponents to comeback in both games. All 3 lined games have gone Over. Dayton has had two byes already. Their win vs St Francis wasn't exactly impressive but since then they have been +234 ttl yards at Ind St, +289 vs Ave Maria and +213 vs Marist. Flyers have turned into a fairly decent team and things point towards them here, but I just don't like anything in it.
Duquesne at St Francis - Still upset that Delaware State blew that game vs SFU last week. DSU led 17-6, but SFU would score 3 TDs in under a 6min span to win by 11. SFU has not been good this year. lost to CCSU lost at Dayton, beat Kent State. Duquesne is a good program finding themselves as league champion and in the playoffs with relative frequency and they again appear on that track again. Led LIU 33-7 last week winning 47-21, led a down YSU team 28-17 before allowing a very late score to win 28-25. They were noncompetitive in their FBS games, but they should be superior here. Last year they led SFU 31-7 HT but had to hang on to win just 38-35 as 3 pt home fav. I ML'd them at Heritage -136 Thursday afternoon. I must be blind as I never saw and still do not see this game listed at FanDuel. This is really the only game among the ones in this post that I like.
Dartmouth at Yale - I did take just a little Dartmouth +3.5 yesterday just because of the number, but not sure I really like them at anything less. I do need to give them credit for last week as I did not expect them to win that game vs Penn and they were just better and might be better overall this year than I expected, mostly defensively which I thought they would regress there. Offensively they should have what it takes. Beat some weak opponents Merrimack (barely, just 280 ttl yards of O) and Fordham (easily) before that. Yale not the typical Yale only beating CCSU by 1 and losing to Cornell by 24! Because of the Yale differences can't draw much comparison to any previous years, Yale has won the last two. Not sure they deserved it last year. Dartmouth has done more this year and no credable case can be made to endorse Yale. Still I don't really like this game.
Mercyhurst at CCSU - CCSU easy covers as dogs of +14, +20.5, +11.5 and +23.5...now they get the DD fav role! They did outgain all three of their FCS opponents this year and the straight up losses were last week to Yale by 1 and then by 4 to UMass. Mercyhurst lost to Frostburg St last time out and also only beat Wheeling by 3 week 1. Montana State and Robert Morris were blowouts. Played a weird game vs Howard where they trailed 3-21 but then led 31-29 and ended up losing. The kind of season CCSU has had we'd all assume they win, but is anyone laying 17.5 with them? Suppose I would if I had to.
Davidson at Dayton - Dayton owns this series. They are 14-2 since 2004 including last year's 45-14 win as 13.5 pt road dogs, in a game Davidson needed for the Pioneer Title! Only 3 of the games have really been close. Of late Dayton has been dogged in all the lined games I see, this year Dayton currently 4.5 pt favorite. Think I heard that Davidson has played 5 different QBs this year. Current starter is a converted DB I believe. It's all on the ground as it typically is for Davidson, they'll only attempt about 12 passes if they have their way looking to run for 350+. Vs Pioneer teams, Davidson has got up 21-0 each of the last two weeks, but allowed opponents to comeback in both games. All 3 lined games have gone Over. Dayton has had two byes already. Their win vs St Francis wasn't exactly impressive but since then they have been +234 ttl yards at Ind St, +289 vs Ave Maria and +213 vs Marist. Flyers have turned into a fairly decent team and things point towards them here, but I just don't like anything in it.
Duquesne at St Francis - Still upset that Delaware State blew that game vs SFU last week. DSU led 17-6, but SFU would score 3 TDs in under a 6min span to win by 11. SFU has not been good this year. lost to CCSU lost at Dayton, beat Kent State. Duquesne is a good program finding themselves as league champion and in the playoffs with relative frequency and they again appear on that track again. Led LIU 33-7 last week winning 47-21, led a down YSU team 28-17 before allowing a very late score to win 28-25. They were noncompetitive in their FBS games, but they should be superior here. Last year they led SFU 31-7 HT but had to hang on to win just 38-35 as 3 pt home fav. I ML'd them at Heritage -136 Thursday afternoon. I must be blind as I never saw and still do not see this game listed at FanDuel. This is really the only game among the ones in this post that I like.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Between the CCSU v Mercyhurst and Lafayette vs GTown games
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St Thomas at Marist - Last week I bet on some improvement with Stetson vs what appeared like a fairly weak St Thomas team. The game pushed on 10, as it went probably lucky, but St Thomas had a crazy start...back-to-back blk'd a punts for TD then had INT set them up at the 27 yard line and then got a 66y pick-six to lead 28-0! St Thomas really is not good though, they only had one drive all game greater than 50 yards. They have had FOUR games this year with offensive yardage under 250 yards and were blown out like few could be by Lindenwood. Upset that last week was a good chance to fade them but all those non-offensive TDs ruined it and now it's Marist who I can't take here. Red Fox have had some moments this year, like getting back in the game at Davidson last week and showed some offense at Bucknell too. So that is 425y and 435y in those two, but the D remains really bad. Not sure St Thomas can take advantage of it with the kind of year they are having. Would like the Under 48.5 but non-offensive TD potential out of St Thomas scares me a little. Marist only averaging 14 ppg, St Thomas avg 16 and that is with last week's 34.
Columbia at Wagner - Big line for Columbia. So far this year they've earned that right with their play, 2-0 with impressive wins when their primary QB is playing. Lost to Georgetown with a decent backup QB after leading 14-0 they lost that one 17-20 as 7pt away fav (-4 TOs). Offense can run it or throw. Did trail 6-10 HT last week, but then erupted for 4 straight 2H TDs. D did good job last week, but Princeton is a bad offense so that job was fairly easy to hold them to 280y (5.1). Vs Laf and GT they allowed 394 (5.5) and 345 (5.9) and both those QBs did well vs their pass D. Wagner has been in some games. Won easily vs Stonehill last week (+238 ttl yards), were only trailing FAU 10-17 HT before getting blown out 2H, hung with RM only losing by 7 (-69 ttl yards), took advantage of a lot of Delaware St mistakes for a 30-7 win there (+54 ttl yards). So it's not necessarily a bad Wagner team, but one inferior to Columbia for sure. 14.5? Kind of a lot of pts to expect Columbia to cover. They are off their Ivy opener and have Penn on deck. Wagner is 4-1 to the Under while Columbia has gone Over 2 of 3.
Georgetown at Lafayette - Did take Hoyas +14.5 yesterday. I never saw the 17 opener. Lafayette isn't quite the same team this year, 1-2 ATS as fav, 0-2 ATS as favs vs teams not named Marist. Columbia and Fordham both outgained them. This line appears to be high with that in mind as they were 10 pt road fav last year (push). Georgetown games have been very sensative to turnovers this year. +5 ratio in their 3 wins, -7 in their 2 losses. They don't run it well, but Lauter is decent QB. He actually got the start vs Lafayette last year and threw for 428! GT had a 464-313 yardage edge in that one despite losing by 10.
Columbia at Wagner - Big line for Columbia. So far this year they've earned that right with their play, 2-0 with impressive wins when their primary QB is playing. Lost to Georgetown with a decent backup QB after leading 14-0 they lost that one 17-20 as 7pt away fav (-4 TOs). Offense can run it or throw. Did trail 6-10 HT last week, but then erupted for 4 straight 2H TDs. D did good job last week, but Princeton is a bad offense so that job was fairly easy to hold them to 280y (5.1). Vs Laf and GT they allowed 394 (5.5) and 345 (5.9) and both those QBs did well vs their pass D. Wagner has been in some games. Won easily vs Stonehill last week (+238 ttl yards), were only trailing FAU 10-17 HT before getting blown out 2H, hung with RM only losing by 7 (-69 ttl yards), took advantage of a lot of Delaware St mistakes for a 30-7 win there (+54 ttl yards). So it's not necessarily a bad Wagner team, but one inferior to Columbia for sure. 14.5? Kind of a lot of pts to expect Columbia to cover. They are off their Ivy opener and have Penn on deck. Wagner is 4-1 to the Under while Columbia has gone Over 2 of 3.
Georgetown at Lafayette - Did take Hoyas +14.5 yesterday. I never saw the 17 opener. Lafayette isn't quite the same team this year, 1-2 ATS as fav, 0-2 ATS as favs vs teams not named Marist. Columbia and Fordham both outgained them. This line appears to be high with that in mind as they were 10 pt road fav last year (push). Georgetown games have been very sensative to turnovers this year. +5 ratio in their 3 wins, -7 in their 2 losses. They don't run it well, but Lauter is decent QB. He actually got the start vs Lafayette last year and threw for 428! GT had a 464-313 yardage edge in that one despite losing by 10.
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Goodbye to Romance College Football
Brown at Rhode Island - Sometimes I get stuck on or against a team, right now I am busy fading Rhode Island. They won their last 2 vs LIU and Hampton, but could've lost both straight up. They weren't as good as their 21-9 win vs Campbell suggest either. Brown played a very tight game with URI last year ultimately losing by 4 but Brown had leads of 3-0, 10-6, 17-13, and 27-20 before losing 30-34 (+55 ttl yards). That was a better URI team while Brown is mostly the same. It is true they got lucky to win vs Harvard, but probably should've, definitely could've beat Bryant last week. Game was 35-35 when Bryant threw a 30y TD pass on 4th down under 2min left. That was Bryant's second 4th down TD pass as their first score of the game was a 4th-20 TD pass! URI D allowed LIU to have their best offensive game of the ssn (371 yards - LIU was 53% 3rd down vs URI, they are a combined 2-of-18 the last two games!). Just really not liking this Rhode Island team. Took some Brown ML too.
Fordham - Holy Cross - Fordham rose from the dead last week, good for them. Was Fordham's first cover of the year! Can they keep that up? They avg just 264 ypg their previous 3 before putting up 323 (4.0) last week. Not that great really. They were pretty good on 3rd down for a change and 4-of-6 on 4th down which helped their O a lot. Their D had been shredded for 477 ypg, but they held Lafayette to just 301 (6.0ypp though - Monmouth hit 9.4 on them and Dartmouth 7.9 so 6.0 is an improvement). Holy Cross was impressive in their 38-7 win over Colgate, their D was the surprising part, but Colgate O isn't normally good. HC O has been good vs FCS recently, over 400ypg in each of last 3. Only team to outgain HC all year was Cuse. Hard to know what Fordham team shows up, the one who fought last week, or the one that was looking towards the offseason. I would like HC but really don't want to lay the pts, 16.5.
Murray St - Indiana State - This game was billed as one of the biggest games in Murray history last year as it was their MVFC opener and Murray won 30-28 as 2.5 pt dogs. They've had a couple of rough games the last two weeks losing by combined 35-131 and last week were shut out 0-59. They did put up 447 (5.3) yards on UND 2 weeks ago. They hammered Miss Valley as a lot of teams can. Bad loss at home vs Butler, but this is a team that was going to be finding themselves early in the season with all new everything. They should fare better this week. Indiana State had their typical close game vs YSU. Ind St D actually isn't that bad when they play other teams that aren't good like them (pretty much everyone they've played except Purdue). The fact they lost to Houston Christian is bad even though HCU just beat McNeese. HCU jumped on them too leading 17-0, Ind St came back to only lose by 3 but they never led. Ind St hasn't scored more than 24 in any game this year, so even though Owens is a do-it-all QB, they really don't produce much on O (337 ypg vs FCS in games Owens plays). It's rare for Murray to have a game they know they can win so I think they will bring the best they have. Will it be good enough? Ind St is 1-1 ATS as a fav this year, could be 0-1-1 depending on the Dayton line. After opening at 4.5, now at 6.5 it is nearing playable territory on Murray for me I think. The final score not withstanding, I think there were some positives to take away from their loss at UND.
As sleepy informed me, the Valpo - Stetson game was postponned. I liked Stetson
Sacred Heart at Howard - Howard has gone Under 3 of 4. SHU does have 3 Overs but also have two way Under games. This total is too low for me to do the Under with these two and actually I don't want to take anything here.
Bucknell at Penn - I took a little Penn ML right at open and then it went up quite a bit. Can't see them losing here, at least I hope not. They have been disappointing on offense at times. 7.1 ypp on Colgate but only 27 pts led to a non-cover there (456-343 yardage edge, 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips). I would think that the Colgate D should be similar to what the Bucknell D presents. Bucknell's last 3 has them giving up 446 ypg (6.36) and that is vs teams that don't normally have a lot of O, like Merrimack, Marist and Lehigh. So this really should be a game that Penn goes off on. I got burned being on Penn the last couple games so I might be a little hesitant. Bucknell does have some O and I normally say they are always a good back door potential team. Might be an Over game as well. 53.5. Bucknell games are alwasy good for atleast one non-offensive TD, actually there has been atleast one in each of their last 4 and twice there were two in one game. Those are always good for Overs. As long as Penn is the one scoring those they probably cover. Just a little gun shy as my preseason expectations on them haven't proven out, but I still believe they should be true. If so this has to be a game it shows up.
Albany at Bryant - Did take a small piece of Bryant at open, but don't love it. See some improved play there, but actually Albany showed a lot last week. Was just vs Cornell, but not like Cornell is much better than Bryant. So I am worried that Albany's performance last week could be a launching point for them. 498 (6.9) and only 31 pts, but Danes kicked short FGs, missed FG, SOD in scoring position, you name it. We all know they are a much different team, but offensively I think they always had a chance to come together as there are pieces there, just different. I am actually talking myself into Albany a little despite holding Bryant +8.5. Maybe it drops more and I can take both. Maine beat them 34-20, but that game was just 27-20 when Albany threw a 78y pick-six under 2min left. Bryant competed well with Brown althoug they got some rather unlikely TDs in that game (pair of 4th down 30y TD passes). Bryant played a good 2H at UNH, only outgained by 7y there and only outgained by 52y despite losing last home game vs Holy Cross by 19. Think I'd rather have Albany to win, do think Bryant can hang around. So one of those games.
Maine at Delaware - Hens have scored 40+ in every game except Penn. Ran for 309 last week at Monmouth (Yarns was back), passed for 309 on Penn. They can do it all. Nobody can stop Monmouth right now. Normally Delaware D keeps opponents down, but Penn did put up 393 (6.2) on them with a balanced attack. Maine off a little bit of a misleading win before their bye, but their last two have definitely been better than their first 3. So teams get better or worse. Maine a little better of late. I really don't know what to do with this game.
Missouri State at Illinois State - tough game. Illinois State won big last week, 45-10, but check the yardage for SIU in that one 487-407. SIU was SOD at the IS20, missed FG from the IS11 and IS21, SOD at the IS40 and missed another FG from the IS28. Later they were SOD at own 29 which led to short Ill St TD. And that yardage is with the starting QB for SIU going out in the 3Q. SIU was penalized 12x for 109. A lot of favorable situations there for Illinois St last week. Missouri State is kind of hard team to trust. Were up 31-17 on YSU, but that game was tied 31-31 late. Their win at UT Martin was fairly impressive. I don't know here. Can't imagine many have strong opinions on this one way or the other.
VMI at Wofford - Don't believe this one is lined yet. Wofford started their backup QB Seeley last week who did ok, under 50% passing, but no INTs and added some running. I haven't checked status of Odom. Wofford has relished their role as a dog this year, 4-1 ATS with the only miss vs Mercer, but that game as very close until a blk'd punt, safety, pick-six...3 straight INTs, it just unravled on them. But this is a markedly improved Wofford team. Now they assume their first favorite spot, how will they handle that because they aren't very strong at anything, rather just solid all around. They've actually been outgained in every game except for week 1. 4 of 5 have gone Under. It is rather amazing how consistenly bad VMI has been every week. I mean, they are just dog shit! Avg just 238 ypg vs FCS and that includes 378 on Bucknell. They had 131 (2.2) on Samford last week and 203 (3.1) on Norfolk. I can't imagine them scoring many here. Should be a lower scoring game, but unsure I want an Under. Maybe I could take Wofford if less than 2 TDs, doubt it will be. Samford closed -18
Fordham - Holy Cross - Fordham rose from the dead last week, good for them. Was Fordham's first cover of the year! Can they keep that up? They avg just 264 ypg their previous 3 before putting up 323 (4.0) last week. Not that great really. They were pretty good on 3rd down for a change and 4-of-6 on 4th down which helped their O a lot. Their D had been shredded for 477 ypg, but they held Lafayette to just 301 (6.0ypp though - Monmouth hit 9.4 on them and Dartmouth 7.9 so 6.0 is an improvement). Holy Cross was impressive in their 38-7 win over Colgate, their D was the surprising part, but Colgate O isn't normally good. HC O has been good vs FCS recently, over 400ypg in each of last 3. Only team to outgain HC all year was Cuse. Hard to know what Fordham team shows up, the one who fought last week, or the one that was looking towards the offseason. I would like HC but really don't want to lay the pts, 16.5.
Murray St - Indiana State - This game was billed as one of the biggest games in Murray history last year as it was their MVFC opener and Murray won 30-28 as 2.5 pt dogs. They've had a couple of rough games the last two weeks losing by combined 35-131 and last week were shut out 0-59. They did put up 447 (5.3) yards on UND 2 weeks ago. They hammered Miss Valley as a lot of teams can. Bad loss at home vs Butler, but this is a team that was going to be finding themselves early in the season with all new everything. They should fare better this week. Indiana State had their typical close game vs YSU. Ind St D actually isn't that bad when they play other teams that aren't good like them (pretty much everyone they've played except Purdue). The fact they lost to Houston Christian is bad even though HCU just beat McNeese. HCU jumped on them too leading 17-0, Ind St came back to only lose by 3 but they never led. Ind St hasn't scored more than 24 in any game this year, so even though Owens is a do-it-all QB, they really don't produce much on O (337 ypg vs FCS in games Owens plays). It's rare for Murray to have a game they know they can win so I think they will bring the best they have. Will it be good enough? Ind St is 1-1 ATS as a fav this year, could be 0-1-1 depending on the Dayton line. After opening at 4.5, now at 6.5 it is nearing playable territory on Murray for me I think. The final score not withstanding, I think there were some positives to take away from their loss at UND.
As sleepy informed me, the Valpo - Stetson game was postponned. I liked Stetson
Sacred Heart at Howard - Howard has gone Under 3 of 4. SHU does have 3 Overs but also have two way Under games. This total is too low for me to do the Under with these two and actually I don't want to take anything here.
Bucknell at Penn - I took a little Penn ML right at open and then it went up quite a bit. Can't see them losing here, at least I hope not. They have been disappointing on offense at times. 7.1 ypp on Colgate but only 27 pts led to a non-cover there (456-343 yardage edge, 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips). I would think that the Colgate D should be similar to what the Bucknell D presents. Bucknell's last 3 has them giving up 446 ypg (6.36) and that is vs teams that don't normally have a lot of O, like Merrimack, Marist and Lehigh. So this really should be a game that Penn goes off on. I got burned being on Penn the last couple games so I might be a little hesitant. Bucknell does have some O and I normally say they are always a good back door potential team. Might be an Over game as well. 53.5. Bucknell games are alwasy good for atleast one non-offensive TD, actually there has been atleast one in each of their last 4 and twice there were two in one game. Those are always good for Overs. As long as Penn is the one scoring those they probably cover. Just a little gun shy as my preseason expectations on them haven't proven out, but I still believe they should be true. If so this has to be a game it shows up.
Albany at Bryant - Did take a small piece of Bryant at open, but don't love it. See some improved play there, but actually Albany showed a lot last week. Was just vs Cornell, but not like Cornell is much better than Bryant. So I am worried that Albany's performance last week could be a launching point for them. 498 (6.9) and only 31 pts, but Danes kicked short FGs, missed FG, SOD in scoring position, you name it. We all know they are a much different team, but offensively I think they always had a chance to come together as there are pieces there, just different. I am actually talking myself into Albany a little despite holding Bryant +8.5. Maybe it drops more and I can take both. Maine beat them 34-20, but that game was just 27-20 when Albany threw a 78y pick-six under 2min left. Bryant competed well with Brown althoug they got some rather unlikely TDs in that game (pair of 4th down 30y TD passes). Bryant played a good 2H at UNH, only outgained by 7y there and only outgained by 52y despite losing last home game vs Holy Cross by 19. Think I'd rather have Albany to win, do think Bryant can hang around. So one of those games.
Maine at Delaware - Hens have scored 40+ in every game except Penn. Ran for 309 last week at Monmouth (Yarns was back), passed for 309 on Penn. They can do it all. Nobody can stop Monmouth right now. Normally Delaware D keeps opponents down, but Penn did put up 393 (6.2) on them with a balanced attack. Maine off a little bit of a misleading win before their bye, but their last two have definitely been better than their first 3. So teams get better or worse. Maine a little better of late. I really don't know what to do with this game.
Missouri State at Illinois State - tough game. Illinois State won big last week, 45-10, but check the yardage for SIU in that one 487-407. SIU was SOD at the IS20, missed FG from the IS11 and IS21, SOD at the IS40 and missed another FG from the IS28. Later they were SOD at own 29 which led to short Ill St TD. And that yardage is with the starting QB for SIU going out in the 3Q. SIU was penalized 12x for 109. A lot of favorable situations there for Illinois St last week. Missouri State is kind of hard team to trust. Were up 31-17 on YSU, but that game was tied 31-31 late. Their win at UT Martin was fairly impressive. I don't know here. Can't imagine many have strong opinions on this one way or the other.
VMI at Wofford - Don't believe this one is lined yet. Wofford started their backup QB Seeley last week who did ok, under 50% passing, but no INTs and added some running. I haven't checked status of Odom. Wofford has relished their role as a dog this year, 4-1 ATS with the only miss vs Mercer, but that game as very close until a blk'd punt, safety, pick-six...3 straight INTs, it just unravled on them. But this is a markedly improved Wofford team. Now they assume their first favorite spot, how will they handle that because they aren't very strong at anything, rather just solid all around. They've actually been outgained in every game except for week 1. 4 of 5 have gone Under. It is rather amazing how consistenly bad VMI has been every week. I mean, they are just dog shit! Avg just 238 ypg vs FCS and that includes 378 on Bucknell. They had 131 (2.2) on Samford last week and 203 (3.1) on Norfolk. I can't imagine them scoring many here. Should be a lower scoring game, but unsure I want an Under. Maybe I could take Wofford if less than 2 TDs, doubt it will be. Samford closed -18
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I swear, I never once saw it on my phone app or now on a lap top. It's just not there for me.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Chattanooga at Furman - We were touching on this one a little when the lines were coming out. UTC +1.5 went to -3 not long later and now 3.5. I'd ML rather than lay 3.5 at this point. Fortunately they were dogged long enough on FD for anyone to get some. Neither UTC or ETSU did much on O in the 1H and in the 2H UTC was just better and the more polished team. Had a feel good win for their O vs Portland St two weeks ago. Looks like now they are playing like the SoCon preseason favorite many had them as. Mercer beat them 10-3 so not like they are in the driver's seat or anything, but all the pieces are there on O and D for this team to be right there at the top of the league. Furman is not a top the league this year. Not a bad team, but can't call them good exactly either. I'm not going to rule out the possibility of a close game that's why I wouldn't want to lay pts with them, but definitely feel they are positioned better to win it than Furman. Furman had to come from 13 down to beat The Citadel. They hung with W&M, had some good fortune early to get up 14-0 early, then only scored 10 the rest of the game and ended up being outgained by 134y. W&M is a playoff caliber team. Chattanooga is a playoff caliber team. Speaking of playoffs, Furman ended UTC's playoffs last year. Yeah, I think that likely motivates the Mocs here. Edit - oh damn I see this line 6.5 now!
Presbyterian at Morehead St - I wasn't surprised that Morehead was favored at home vs another team who typically is bad, I took the Blue Hose plus the pts. I was surprised how quickly Presbyterian went to favored. People might see what I have seen, they aren't that bad. I mean you know, relatively speaking. We are dealing with Pioneer league teams playing eachother, so through that prism, they aren't bad. Played a strong game vs San Diego in which they never trailed until losing on an 87y fum ret TD in OT. Davidson did win 48-37 vs them, but after getting down by 21 to start that game (which was played on Sunday relocated from home to an away game for the Hose), they clawed back in that one scoring 4 straight TDs to only trail be 10/11. It was too big of a hole though. So they have some O. They showed some D last week, which surprised a little. Morehead has been a bad team. Butler spanked them at home, they only managed 216y and 17 pts vs Valpo....EKU and Montana all blew them out. So I'm expecting Presbyterian to win.
Butler at Drake - tricky game to figure out I think. Butler has been so good. But every opponent has been exceptionally weak except for maybe Murray who is just regular old weak. Drake has atleast been tested with a win at Eastern Washington and didn't compete, but took on a South Dakota team. Drake has experienced a close league game when they blew the lead vs San Diego and had to come back and win in the final seconds. Then they just dominated Valpo. So Drake has kind of done it all, Butler only faced creampuffs. That's what makes it tough. With that said, suppose I lean Drake. Laying the 4.5 is uncomfortable though...the San Diego game is too fresh. They were dogged at open in that one which is the only reason I was on them in the first place. Butler could actually be good in a Pioneer League kind of way, they just haven't proved it in a big game yet. So I'm not laying pts even though I just got done doubting Butler and complimenting Drake.
New Hampshire at Elon - Big game for both teams. Elon been a mess most of the year and I bet nobody knows how to assess them. I have been a fan of this UNH team, they let me down last Friday vs Harvard where they played a pretty good 1H and then just weren't able to duplicate it after halftime. I can't know what I would do here. Home team is desperate. UNH needs a bounceback. Not sure why no line? Elon off bye. Did UNH QB get banged up? He's been pretty good this year.
Charleston Southern at Lindenwood - Tough loss for Lindenwood last week. Blew a 20-7 HT lead and were shut out 2H and handed TSU pts with a fumble (7p 1y drive for TSU FG) and muffed punt (6p 22y drive for TSU TD). Neither team topped 300y of O. Also tough loss for CSO, lost as 13 pt home fav to Western Illinois! That one got to hurt! This total...48.5? Man that is high for a CSO game. Last week did stay Under 52 as they combined for 51, but WILL had a 12y drive for TD following INT and a 38y pick-six. CSO's previous 4 games, not one scored more than 44 pts. CSO was +102 ttl yard last week and +103 ttl yards before that, both losses. Lindenwood has potential on O, but they don't always live up to it (like last week). I really am not a fan of CSO but +7.5 may tempt me into taking them, just such a rare spot for Lindenwood to be favored (1-1 ATS this year, win was vs St Thomas, lost straight up to TSU last week). CSO beat them 24-10 as 3 pt home fav last year.
Presbyterian at Morehead St - I wasn't surprised that Morehead was favored at home vs another team who typically is bad, I took the Blue Hose plus the pts. I was surprised how quickly Presbyterian went to favored. People might see what I have seen, they aren't that bad. I mean you know, relatively speaking. We are dealing with Pioneer league teams playing eachother, so through that prism, they aren't bad. Played a strong game vs San Diego in which they never trailed until losing on an 87y fum ret TD in OT. Davidson did win 48-37 vs them, but after getting down by 21 to start that game (which was played on Sunday relocated from home to an away game for the Hose), they clawed back in that one scoring 4 straight TDs to only trail be 10/11. It was too big of a hole though. So they have some O. They showed some D last week, which surprised a little. Morehead has been a bad team. Butler spanked them at home, they only managed 216y and 17 pts vs Valpo....EKU and Montana all blew them out. So I'm expecting Presbyterian to win.
Butler at Drake - tricky game to figure out I think. Butler has been so good. But every opponent has been exceptionally weak except for maybe Murray who is just regular old weak. Drake has atleast been tested with a win at Eastern Washington and didn't compete, but took on a South Dakota team. Drake has experienced a close league game when they blew the lead vs San Diego and had to come back and win in the final seconds. Then they just dominated Valpo. So Drake has kind of done it all, Butler only faced creampuffs. That's what makes it tough. With that said, suppose I lean Drake. Laying the 4.5 is uncomfortable though...the San Diego game is too fresh. They were dogged at open in that one which is the only reason I was on them in the first place. Butler could actually be good in a Pioneer League kind of way, they just haven't proved it in a big game yet. So I'm not laying pts even though I just got done doubting Butler and complimenting Drake.
New Hampshire at Elon - Big game for both teams. Elon been a mess most of the year and I bet nobody knows how to assess them. I have been a fan of this UNH team, they let me down last Friday vs Harvard where they played a pretty good 1H and then just weren't able to duplicate it after halftime. I can't know what I would do here. Home team is desperate. UNH needs a bounceback. Not sure why no line? Elon off bye. Did UNH QB get banged up? He's been pretty good this year.
Charleston Southern at Lindenwood - Tough loss for Lindenwood last week. Blew a 20-7 HT lead and were shut out 2H and handed TSU pts with a fumble (7p 1y drive for TSU FG) and muffed punt (6p 22y drive for TSU TD). Neither team topped 300y of O. Also tough loss for CSO, lost as 13 pt home fav to Western Illinois! That one got to hurt! This total...48.5? Man that is high for a CSO game. Last week did stay Under 52 as they combined for 51, but WILL had a 12y drive for TD following INT and a 38y pick-six. CSO's previous 4 games, not one scored more than 44 pts. CSO was +102 ttl yard last week and +103 ttl yards before that, both losses. Lindenwood has potential on O, but they don't always live up to it (like last week). I really am not a fan of CSO but +7.5 may tempt me into taking them, just such a rare spot for Lindenwood to be favored (1-1 ATS this year, win was vs St Thomas, lost straight up to TSU last week). CSO beat them 24-10 as 3 pt home fav last year.
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sleepy
Pretty much a regular
NAU down to third string guy
PJ London, barring any injuries or setbacks, will make his first career start at quarterback. With starter Ty Pennington and backup Angel Flores both out with injuries, and their return dates still up in the air, London is set to lead the offense.
PJ London, barring any injuries or setbacks, will make his first career start at quarterback. With starter Ty Pennington and backup Angel Flores both out with injuries, and their return dates still up in the air, London is set to lead the offense.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Nice job on UAPB, well done!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
London was quite bad last week in relief. Good to know he's the guy today, thanks!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
More brainstorming through the schedule...
Towson at Norfolk St – Towson has been a great 4-0 ATS as s dog this year. 0-1 ATS in their only fav role hosting Morgan, a 14-9 win as a 10 pt fav. They were 1-1 last year as fav, the loss was vs this team Norfolk…Towson was -17.5 at home and lost straight up 14-21 as Norfolk ran for 350 on them. Usually that is what Norfolk will want to do again, rely on the run and they aren’t typically good passing but occasionally have done ok there, not often. All-in-all up against some kind of good team Norfolk O is bad. Another CAA team, Hampton held them to 104y (2.5), NCCU held them to 244 (4.5). So you wouldn’t assume that Norfolk O is going to do much. Towson D has had to go up against quality offensive units in W&M, NDSU, Villanova (not always execute well, but they have good players). I can probably swallow the pts here. Don’t love it as the Towson O hasn’t been as high flying this year on their own (a lot of scoring last week was pts off TOs) and the respect for Morgan D is still there for me, but only scoring 14 on Morgan is something that makes you say hmm. It still is an O that can do well when they hit it right. Norfolk QB left last game with concussion, not sure he goes this week. Kuhns was never able to return this year, so they will be down to what I am going to assume is a pretty bad third stringer if Daniels can’t go – Daniels himself isn’t always good.
The Citadel at Western Carolina – Hats off to The Citadel, 4-1 ATS this year and the only loss is a game that saw ETSU take a 20-10 4Q game and make it a 34-17 F (Cit +14). Might be a little tough for them to rebound from last game as they had Furman down by 2 scores in the 2H, but blew it in the 4Q. The Citadel has been held below 300 ypg on O in 3 of their 4 FCS games, surprisingly their best outing was vs the best D in Mercer. Kind of have to just see that as an aberration, something that shouldn’t have happened but did. The 3.5 and 3.9 ypp O of the last two weeks probably closer to reality. WCU still seems a little off compared to last year. Had 475 yard last week, but just 21 pts. RZ scoring has been bad all year. Citadel and WCU both have combined for Unders in 8 of 10 games this year. If RZ scoring was more efficient some of those WCU Unders go Over. 53.5 is a little tough, too bad it isn’t more like 58. I don’t know. WCU actually 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite, they are just kind of meh team. Believe this game got bet down from 16.5 to 13.5 and with good reason. Maybe it goes down more…I really can’t see myself laying anything more than 10 and even then feels kind of wrong.
Merrimack at Morgan – These are two offensively challenged teams. Merrimack scored 31 on Bucknell, otherwise they avg just 14.5 in their other two FCS games and just 229.5 ypg in those (405 on Bucknell). After some early season hope the Morgan O had a heartbeat this year (30 pts and 319y week 1 vs Hampton), as it turns out they do not. 3 pts and 259y on SB last week. 6 pts at Ohio and 9 pts at Towson. Their last 3 lined games avg just 6 ppg and 239.7 ypg. Total is 42.5 with good reason. Can I play a total that low? Bad offenses, just fear some turnovers and field position or non-offensive TDs, definitely no value in a total that low, but results on the field do justify it. It’s the lowest Merrimack total, Morgan played a 42 totaled game last lined game. Teams combined for Unders 6 of 8 games (not counting Merrimack-Bucknell as nobody lined it). Rare favorite spot for Morgan, hasn’t happened this year and last year they were 1-2 ATS. Think I would have to take Merrimack +, would like to have a full 7 if I did.
Texas A&M Commerce at Northwestern State – Commerce has been on the struggle bus, medicine for that should be NW State. Demons are among the worst if not the worst team in FCS. But they just had more yards last week (379) then they had the two prior games combined (120+157). Their just scored their most pts (17) since week 2. I’m not sure exactly what that means for them here. If this game was 3 weeks ago I’d be all about TAMC as I liked them going into Grambling, 6 lost turnovers later and an OT loss there was a big turn off. The TOs haven’t stopped, but just 4 and 2 the last two games so they are doing it less. I guess their game at SLU was kind of close (14-9 late 4Q before final TD made it 21-9. I really don’t like what TAMC is going at QB, they alternated Rodriguez and Peace. This is really just not a game to talk much about. Suppose if you are fading NW State weekly you just keep doing that. TAMC had some things going on a few weeks back, maybe they can regain some of that vs the weakest team they have played to date. Going with them to win, laying pts with them seems risky still.
Southeastern Louisiana at Houston Chrisitan – HCU has their mojo working back-to-back upset wins. And their game vs UTSA, they played well enough considering in that one. So appear to have turned a corner. I might give SLU a pass for a less than stellar game vs Commerce last week as the Tarleton loss likely took a lot out of them as it was pretty hard fought close game that could’ve went either way. They will need to show up here with that kind of effort as HCU definitely has found themselves. 414y rushing last week! Brickhandler really isn’t that good of a QB though 7of20 last week, but he reeled off 138y rushing. Hard to go against the kind of momentum HCU has right now, think I side with SLU to win this. -2.5 or I’d just go -120 on the ML. HCU just played a McNeese St team basically without McDowell and Indiana State O which is never good. SLU has some issues, but I will bet this is a better team than HCU has beaten – and that is saying something because SLU generally is not good – they’ve done some decent things at times this year (EWU, Tarleton games). So they can come up with that type of game I can see them winning. When SLU was tail-spinning last year, HCU beat them 34-19 and was +189. Just noting that, we are talking about an SLU team that is a shell of what they once were.
Mississippi Valley State at Alabama State – No line yet…nobody bets Valley so it is ASU or nothing obviously. Last year ASU beat them 20-3 as 14.5 pt road fav for reference. ASU is a good defense and a not so good offense kind of team in mostly lower scoring games because of that. So laying the pts this line will require makes it kind of tough. Valley does cover some games occasionally, like +23 at Lamar, only lost by 14. Were getting blown out week 1 to TSU and came back to push. I can’t see myself having much interest in this game.
Delaware State at Robert Morris – Would understand if DSU is flat here off blowing the SFU game last week, which I’d rather forget about what happened there myself. They’ve been pretty feisty team this year. Should’ve covered last week, but otherwise 4 covers ATS as dogs this year. Also were in position to win the Campbell game, but let that one get away too. Robert Morris wasn’t good enough to hang around at EKU, but this should be a game they win. By 7 or more? I guess so. They were 6 pt road fav at Wagner and won 21-14. DSU was 8 pt home fav to Wagner and lost 7-30! Lots of mistakes by DSU in that one as we might figure with them as they screw up a lot. Think I would like Robert Morris.
North Dakota State at Southern Illinois – Dakota Marker game on deck for Bison and that is a BIG one. And they are off the revenge game against UND. So not the best situational spot for them. Still like NDSU though. I was able to get some of the open and may still like it at current number given the state that SIU find themselves. Third string QB now. They were so QB dependent their entire trajectory of their season changed with Williams went out and now his backup is out. OL is not good enough to rely on any kind of conventional run game either. The receivers on SIU are very good, just can you trust the new QB to get them the ball? Might be a little afraid of a back door here if Bison aren’t up by enough late. Their D has been really great the last several games and especially the last two vs Ill St and UND.
Towson at Norfolk St – Towson has been a great 4-0 ATS as s dog this year. 0-1 ATS in their only fav role hosting Morgan, a 14-9 win as a 10 pt fav. They were 1-1 last year as fav, the loss was vs this team Norfolk…Towson was -17.5 at home and lost straight up 14-21 as Norfolk ran for 350 on them. Usually that is what Norfolk will want to do again, rely on the run and they aren’t typically good passing but occasionally have done ok there, not often. All-in-all up against some kind of good team Norfolk O is bad. Another CAA team, Hampton held them to 104y (2.5), NCCU held them to 244 (4.5). So you wouldn’t assume that Norfolk O is going to do much. Towson D has had to go up against quality offensive units in W&M, NDSU, Villanova (not always execute well, but they have good players). I can probably swallow the pts here. Don’t love it as the Towson O hasn’t been as high flying this year on their own (a lot of scoring last week was pts off TOs) and the respect for Morgan D is still there for me, but only scoring 14 on Morgan is something that makes you say hmm. It still is an O that can do well when they hit it right. Norfolk QB left last game with concussion, not sure he goes this week. Kuhns was never able to return this year, so they will be down to what I am going to assume is a pretty bad third stringer if Daniels can’t go – Daniels himself isn’t always good.
The Citadel at Western Carolina – Hats off to The Citadel, 4-1 ATS this year and the only loss is a game that saw ETSU take a 20-10 4Q game and make it a 34-17 F (Cit +14). Might be a little tough for them to rebound from last game as they had Furman down by 2 scores in the 2H, but blew it in the 4Q. The Citadel has been held below 300 ypg on O in 3 of their 4 FCS games, surprisingly their best outing was vs the best D in Mercer. Kind of have to just see that as an aberration, something that shouldn’t have happened but did. The 3.5 and 3.9 ypp O of the last two weeks probably closer to reality. WCU still seems a little off compared to last year. Had 475 yard last week, but just 21 pts. RZ scoring has been bad all year. Citadel and WCU both have combined for Unders in 8 of 10 games this year. If RZ scoring was more efficient some of those WCU Unders go Over. 53.5 is a little tough, too bad it isn’t more like 58. I don’t know. WCU actually 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite, they are just kind of meh team. Believe this game got bet down from 16.5 to 13.5 and with good reason. Maybe it goes down more…I really can’t see myself laying anything more than 10 and even then feels kind of wrong.
Merrimack at Morgan – These are two offensively challenged teams. Merrimack scored 31 on Bucknell, otherwise they avg just 14.5 in their other two FCS games and just 229.5 ypg in those (405 on Bucknell). After some early season hope the Morgan O had a heartbeat this year (30 pts and 319y week 1 vs Hampton), as it turns out they do not. 3 pts and 259y on SB last week. 6 pts at Ohio and 9 pts at Towson. Their last 3 lined games avg just 6 ppg and 239.7 ypg. Total is 42.5 with good reason. Can I play a total that low? Bad offenses, just fear some turnovers and field position or non-offensive TDs, definitely no value in a total that low, but results on the field do justify it. It’s the lowest Merrimack total, Morgan played a 42 totaled game last lined game. Teams combined for Unders 6 of 8 games (not counting Merrimack-Bucknell as nobody lined it). Rare favorite spot for Morgan, hasn’t happened this year and last year they were 1-2 ATS. Think I would have to take Merrimack +, would like to have a full 7 if I did.
Texas A&M Commerce at Northwestern State – Commerce has been on the struggle bus, medicine for that should be NW State. Demons are among the worst if not the worst team in FCS. But they just had more yards last week (379) then they had the two prior games combined (120+157). Their just scored their most pts (17) since week 2. I’m not sure exactly what that means for them here. If this game was 3 weeks ago I’d be all about TAMC as I liked them going into Grambling, 6 lost turnovers later and an OT loss there was a big turn off. The TOs haven’t stopped, but just 4 and 2 the last two games so they are doing it less. I guess their game at SLU was kind of close (14-9 late 4Q before final TD made it 21-9. I really don’t like what TAMC is going at QB, they alternated Rodriguez and Peace. This is really just not a game to talk much about. Suppose if you are fading NW State weekly you just keep doing that. TAMC had some things going on a few weeks back, maybe they can regain some of that vs the weakest team they have played to date. Going with them to win, laying pts with them seems risky still.
Southeastern Louisiana at Houston Chrisitan – HCU has their mojo working back-to-back upset wins. And their game vs UTSA, they played well enough considering in that one. So appear to have turned a corner. I might give SLU a pass for a less than stellar game vs Commerce last week as the Tarleton loss likely took a lot out of them as it was pretty hard fought close game that could’ve went either way. They will need to show up here with that kind of effort as HCU definitely has found themselves. 414y rushing last week! Brickhandler really isn’t that good of a QB though 7of20 last week, but he reeled off 138y rushing. Hard to go against the kind of momentum HCU has right now, think I side with SLU to win this. -2.5 or I’d just go -120 on the ML. HCU just played a McNeese St team basically without McDowell and Indiana State O which is never good. SLU has some issues, but I will bet this is a better team than HCU has beaten – and that is saying something because SLU generally is not good – they’ve done some decent things at times this year (EWU, Tarleton games). So they can come up with that type of game I can see them winning. When SLU was tail-spinning last year, HCU beat them 34-19 and was +189. Just noting that, we are talking about an SLU team that is a shell of what they once were.
Mississippi Valley State at Alabama State – No line yet…nobody bets Valley so it is ASU or nothing obviously. Last year ASU beat them 20-3 as 14.5 pt road fav for reference. ASU is a good defense and a not so good offense kind of team in mostly lower scoring games because of that. So laying the pts this line will require makes it kind of tough. Valley does cover some games occasionally, like +23 at Lamar, only lost by 14. Were getting blown out week 1 to TSU and came back to push. I can’t see myself having much interest in this game.
Delaware State at Robert Morris – Would understand if DSU is flat here off blowing the SFU game last week, which I’d rather forget about what happened there myself. They’ve been pretty feisty team this year. Should’ve covered last week, but otherwise 4 covers ATS as dogs this year. Also were in position to win the Campbell game, but let that one get away too. Robert Morris wasn’t good enough to hang around at EKU, but this should be a game they win. By 7 or more? I guess so. They were 6 pt road fav at Wagner and won 21-14. DSU was 8 pt home fav to Wagner and lost 7-30! Lots of mistakes by DSU in that one as we might figure with them as they screw up a lot. Think I would like Robert Morris.
North Dakota State at Southern Illinois – Dakota Marker game on deck for Bison and that is a BIG one. And they are off the revenge game against UND. So not the best situational spot for them. Still like NDSU though. I was able to get some of the open and may still like it at current number given the state that SIU find themselves. Third string QB now. They were so QB dependent their entire trajectory of their season changed with Williams went out and now his backup is out. OL is not good enough to rely on any kind of conventional run game either. The receivers on SIU are very good, just can you trust the new QB to get them the ball? Might be a little afraid of a back door here if Bison aren’t up by enough late. Their D has been really great the last several games and especially the last two vs Ill St and UND.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Alcorn at Grambling - tough game in the Hole. I count Alcorn has lost their last 11 in this stadium! Grambling had kind of been doing it with smoke and mirrors then the magic show stopped and they lost to PV in 5 OT. Bye last week. Crawley is good QB though so offensively Grambling is going to do some things. Their OL seems weak and holds them back though. Vaughn, the QB for Alcorn may be the best player on the field though, he's a great runner while a little up and down throwing. I think the Alcorn O is good enough to win this, they just have to overcome a lot of history to pull it off. Both teams new head coaches so history may mean little to them. Alcorn and Grambling both 3-0 to the Over in their FCS games. 52.5 isn't too high, think I go that route too
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Goodbye to Romance College Football
7.5
sleepy
Pretty much a regular
steponaduck
Pretty much a regular
Davidson over 56
Norfolk under 50.5
Mercer-3.5
UTM -22.5
South Dakota state -31.5
Norfolk under 50.5
Mercer-3.5
UTM -22.5
South Dakota state -31.5
sleepy
Pretty much a regular
I hope DK opens Mercer -3.5
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Long Island scores a season high 31 pts in a 24 pt win over Stonehill.
Dartmouth ties the largest comeback in program history coming from 23 down to beat Yale in OT behind 3rd string QB!
CCSU gets a 58y TD run with 1-1/2 minutes left for the cover and the Over
Dayton blocks a punt and 3 FGs as their dominance in the series vs Davidson continues (15-2 now)
Saint Francis fails to convert a 3rd down as Duquesne rolls them
St Thomas led by 15 twice, but Marist scored TD and got a 2pt conversion with just :19 left to lose by 7.
Columbia led 24-0 1H, 24-6 HT, nobody scored 2H for an odd game that Columbia dominated but were outgained in total yards. Wagner threw INT in the EZ with 2min left.
Georgetown had a 39:21 TOP advantage and Lafayette’s offense was every bit as bad as the shutout suggests.
Brown led, were tied, or didn’t trail by more than 7 pts for 57 minutes, but the game got away from them in the 4Q as they were SOD at the R34, missed a FG from the R10, and threw an INT and fumbled on their side of the 50 for their final 2 possessions and lost by 10.
Fordham played their second tough game, led 16-13 4Q, but Holy Cross pulled it out 19-16.
Murray St took the lead 27-24 on a short FG 2min left, but Indiana State went down the field and scored TD in the final seconds to win by 4.
Howard won their 9th straight home game with a 21-14 win vs Sacred Heart. SHU led 14-7 HT.
Bucknell missed 3 FGs and Penn passed up a FG late 4Q to try and pick up a 4th down, but they were stopped at the B21. These things kept the game Under by just 1-2 pts.
Albany beat Bryant by 7, each team scored a TD in the final 2 minutes of the game, Albany was leading 24-10 before Bryant got theirs with just :08 left.
Maine – Delaware was close throughout, just 23-21 early 4Q, but Hens would score 21 straight including a 34y pick-six to win 44-21.
Missouri State crushes Illinois State 41-7!
Wofford led 15-0 and 15-3 HT. VMI got a 41y pick-six, Woff ret the ensuing KO but it was brought back by penalty. VMI would later blk a punt in the EZ to lead 16-15 without an offensive TD! Wofford scored the final 16 including a FG with :10 left (there was a failed 2pt conversion in there that may’ve mattered for the spread). Wofford had nearly double the yardage (349-180).
Chattanooga wins easy
Neither Presbyterian nor Morehead topped 300y of O. Presbyterian turned it over 5x including back-to-back INTs in the final minutes at the M26 and M14. Morehead won 14-7.
Butler led 6-3 HT, but Drake would take a 27-9 lead before Butler scored a TD with a 2pt late. 27-17 final.
Little offense was found between New Hampshire and Elon. UNH had just 151 yards in the win! Elon only came up with 231y. They combined for 23 TFLs for a total of 122 yards lost. Elon led 10-0. A blk’d punt and recovery at the E10 got UNH on the board right before HT.
Lindenwood sets program record with 5 FGs made in the 29-14 win over Charleston Southern.
The Citadel had a 429-396 (5.6-5.4) yardage edge at Western Carolina, but WCU was up by 2-3 scores most of the game. The Citadel threw two INTs into the EZ from the RZ 2H and also missed a FG from the W06 and ended the game at the W04. It was a 16 pt game late 4Q when Citadel tackled the WCU punter in the EZ to make it a 14 pt game, which may’ve mattered in some scenarios of the varied line movements this game saw.
Merrimack won a game 32-24 vs Morgan with just SIX first downs! They scored 23 pts via STs and TOs off very little offensive production.
Texas AM Commerce led 42-7 before 2 garbage TDs by NW State in the final 5 minutes.
Houston Christian led 7-0, SLU scored the next 37
Mississippi Valley actually led 14-0, they lost 17-54 to Alabama State!
Robert Morris led just 3-0 HT vs Delaware St, but won 23-0
NDSU kind of mailed one in 24-3 with the last TD coming fairly late 4Q, but it was good enough vs a limited SIU offense.
Alcorn-Grambling left a lot of pts off the board in the 1H. Alcorn was in scoring position 5 of 7 1H drives but only came away with 2 TDs having a FG blk’d, threw an INT in the EZ and fumbled at the G10. Grambling was in scoring position 4 of 5 possessions, but only had two FGs since they were SOD at the A24 and threw INT at the A19. Not much O in the 2H, Alcorn kicked a 27y game winner with :07 left.
South Dakota St took the opening KO for TD and they were hitting on all cylinders ahead of the showdown with NDSU next week. Jacks have scored on ST 3 straight games.
South Dakota scored TDs on their first 6 full possessions vs UNI (not counting a kneel down before HT).
Alabama A&M puts up 56 pts on 700 yards vs Bethune-Cookman!
Mercer’s D and ST (2) scored as many TDs as the Mercer O did (2). Kind of a theme with them.
Samford led by 14 twice including 28-14 3Q, but ETSU rallied and scored the final 21 pts. Samford had five 3-out-punt possessions spanning 3Q-4Q (negative 8 yards on final 6 possessions of game for them).
Tarleton State gets up 42-0 HT, loses team total (42.5)
North Alabama gets their first ever win vs a ranked team as a Dl member in beating Abilene Christian a weak after ACU got their first ever win vs a top 5 ranked team. And that then top 5 team UCA nearly went down today home vs West Georgia having to survive a 2pt attempt to escape with the win.
A few Big Sky upsets! Northern Colorado snaps an 18 game losing streak with the win at Weber. And winless Portland State finally gets a win beating Idaho State. Eastern Washington beats Sac State! Montana had to work awfully hard to beat NAU but found a way in the 4Q. Right now Cats showing Vandal fans their worst nightmares, offensive limitations fully on display.
Dartmouth ties the largest comeback in program history coming from 23 down to beat Yale in OT behind 3rd string QB!
CCSU gets a 58y TD run with 1-1/2 minutes left for the cover and the Over
Dayton blocks a punt and 3 FGs as their dominance in the series vs Davidson continues (15-2 now)
Saint Francis fails to convert a 3rd down as Duquesne rolls them
St Thomas led by 15 twice, but Marist scored TD and got a 2pt conversion with just :19 left to lose by 7.
Columbia led 24-0 1H, 24-6 HT, nobody scored 2H for an odd game that Columbia dominated but were outgained in total yards. Wagner threw INT in the EZ with 2min left.
Georgetown had a 39:21 TOP advantage and Lafayette’s offense was every bit as bad as the shutout suggests.
Brown led, were tied, or didn’t trail by more than 7 pts for 57 minutes, but the game got away from them in the 4Q as they were SOD at the R34, missed a FG from the R10, and threw an INT and fumbled on their side of the 50 for their final 2 possessions and lost by 10.
Fordham played their second tough game, led 16-13 4Q, but Holy Cross pulled it out 19-16.
Murray St took the lead 27-24 on a short FG 2min left, but Indiana State went down the field and scored TD in the final seconds to win by 4.
Howard won their 9th straight home game with a 21-14 win vs Sacred Heart. SHU led 14-7 HT.
Bucknell missed 3 FGs and Penn passed up a FG late 4Q to try and pick up a 4th down, but they were stopped at the B21. These things kept the game Under by just 1-2 pts.
Albany beat Bryant by 7, each team scored a TD in the final 2 minutes of the game, Albany was leading 24-10 before Bryant got theirs with just :08 left.
Maine – Delaware was close throughout, just 23-21 early 4Q, but Hens would score 21 straight including a 34y pick-six to win 44-21.
Missouri State crushes Illinois State 41-7!
Wofford led 15-0 and 15-3 HT. VMI got a 41y pick-six, Woff ret the ensuing KO but it was brought back by penalty. VMI would later blk a punt in the EZ to lead 16-15 without an offensive TD! Wofford scored the final 16 including a FG with :10 left (there was a failed 2pt conversion in there that may’ve mattered for the spread). Wofford had nearly double the yardage (349-180).
Chattanooga wins easy
Neither Presbyterian nor Morehead topped 300y of O. Presbyterian turned it over 5x including back-to-back INTs in the final minutes at the M26 and M14. Morehead won 14-7.
Butler led 6-3 HT, but Drake would take a 27-9 lead before Butler scored a TD with a 2pt late. 27-17 final.
Little offense was found between New Hampshire and Elon. UNH had just 151 yards in the win! Elon only came up with 231y. They combined for 23 TFLs for a total of 122 yards lost. Elon led 10-0. A blk’d punt and recovery at the E10 got UNH on the board right before HT.
Lindenwood sets program record with 5 FGs made in the 29-14 win over Charleston Southern.
The Citadel had a 429-396 (5.6-5.4) yardage edge at Western Carolina, but WCU was up by 2-3 scores most of the game. The Citadel threw two INTs into the EZ from the RZ 2H and also missed a FG from the W06 and ended the game at the W04. It was a 16 pt game late 4Q when Citadel tackled the WCU punter in the EZ to make it a 14 pt game, which may’ve mattered in some scenarios of the varied line movements this game saw.
Merrimack won a game 32-24 vs Morgan with just SIX first downs! They scored 23 pts via STs and TOs off very little offensive production.
Texas AM Commerce led 42-7 before 2 garbage TDs by NW State in the final 5 minutes.
Houston Christian led 7-0, SLU scored the next 37
Mississippi Valley actually led 14-0, they lost 17-54 to Alabama State!
Robert Morris led just 3-0 HT vs Delaware St, but won 23-0
NDSU kind of mailed one in 24-3 with the last TD coming fairly late 4Q, but it was good enough vs a limited SIU offense.
Alcorn-Grambling left a lot of pts off the board in the 1H. Alcorn was in scoring position 5 of 7 1H drives but only came away with 2 TDs having a FG blk’d, threw an INT in the EZ and fumbled at the G10. Grambling was in scoring position 4 of 5 possessions, but only had two FGs since they were SOD at the A24 and threw INT at the A19. Not much O in the 2H, Alcorn kicked a 27y game winner with :07 left.
South Dakota St took the opening KO for TD and they were hitting on all cylinders ahead of the showdown with NDSU next week. Jacks have scored on ST 3 straight games.
South Dakota scored TDs on their first 6 full possessions vs UNI (not counting a kneel down before HT).
Alabama A&M puts up 56 pts on 700 yards vs Bethune-Cookman!
Mercer’s D and ST (2) scored as many TDs as the Mercer O did (2). Kind of a theme with them.
Samford led by 14 twice including 28-14 3Q, but ETSU rallied and scored the final 21 pts. Samford had five 3-out-punt possessions spanning 3Q-4Q (negative 8 yards on final 6 possessions of game for them).
Tarleton State gets up 42-0 HT, loses team total (42.5)
North Alabama gets their first ever win vs a ranked team as a Dl member in beating Abilene Christian a weak after ACU got their first ever win vs a top 5 ranked team. And that then top 5 team UCA nearly went down today home vs West Georgia having to survive a 2pt attempt to escape with the win.
A few Big Sky upsets! Northern Colorado snaps an 18 game losing streak with the win at Weber. And winless Portland State finally gets a win beating Idaho State. Eastern Washington beats Sac State! Montana had to work awfully hard to beat NAU but found a way in the 4Q. Right now Cats showing Vandal fans their worst nightmares, offensive limitations fully on display.
