Weeks 0 and 1 in the FCS

[s--k]

Figured it was time to move out of the off-season thread



Saturday, August 24

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile	Massey PR Spread
McNeese at Tarleton State	3:30pm	ESPN2	T -16.5 / 55.5
Montana State at New Mexico	4:00pm	FS1	M -7.5 /51.5 real line M - 8.5 / 53.5
Southeast Missouri vs North Alabama (in Montgomery, AL)	7:00pm	ESPN	S - 7.5 / 57.5
Norfolk State vs Florida A&M (in Atlanta, GA)	7:30pm	ABC	F -13.5 / 51.5
Delaware State at Hawaii	11:59pm	Spectrum PPV ~stream free on app~	H - 38.5 /53.5 real line H - 38.5 / 55.5

Thursday, August 29

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile	Massey PR Spread
Central State at Morehead State	6:00pm	ESPN+	M - 25.5 / 52.5
Howard at Rutgers	6:00pm	BTN	R - 38.5 / 50.5 real line R - 34.5 / 47.5
Youngstown State at Villanova	6:00pm	FloFootball	V - 4.5 / 55.5
Mercyhurst at Wheeling	7:00pm	MECTV	W - 6.5 / 55.5
Western Carolina at 24 NC State	7:00pm	ACCN	N - 33.5 / 54.5 real line N - 33.5 / 60.5
Jackson State at ULM	7:00pm	ESPN+	ULM - 20.5 / 51.5
CCSU at Central Michigan	7:00pm	ESPN+	CM - 34.5 / 52.5
VMI at William & Mary	7:00pm	FloFootball	W - 18.5 / 46.5
Wofford at Gardner-Webb	7:00pm	ESPN+	G - 9.5 / 51.5
New Hampshire at UCF	7:00pm	ESPN+	CF - 28.5 / 55.5 real line CF - 42.5 / 61.5
North Carolina A&T at Wake Forest	7:00pm	ACCNX	W - 36.5 / 50.5 real line W - 37.5 / 52.5
Presbyterian at Mercer	7:00pm	ESPN+	M - 37.5 / 50.5
Lafayette at Buffalo	7:00pm	ESPN+	B - 15.5 / 50.5
Bryant at Delaware	7:00pm	FloFootball	D - 14.5 / 54.5
Fordham at Bowling Green	7:00pm	ESPN+	B - 17.5 / 56.5
Quincy at Drake	7:30pm	TV TBA	D - 13.5 / 52.5
UAPB at Arkansas	7:30pm	ESPNU	A - 49.5 / 54.5 real line A - 52.5 / 58.5
Duquesne at Toledo	7:30pm	ESPN+	T - 34.5 / 52.5
Alcorn State at UAB	8:00pm	ESPN+	UAB-33.5 / 52.5
Lindenwood at 22 Kansas	8:00pm	ESPN+	K - 44.5 / 55.5
Northern State at South Dakota	8:00pm	TV TBA	S - 36.5 / 49.5
Sioux Falls at St. Thomas	8:00pm	Tommiesports.com	ST - 6.5 / 54.5
Northwestern State at Tulsa	8:00pm	ESPN+	T - 33.5 / 53.5
Southeastern La. at Tulane	8:00pm	ESPN+	T - 27.5 / 53.5
Murray State at 11 Missouri	8:00pm	SECN	Miz-42.5 / 55.5 real line Miz-47.5 / 58.5
North Dakota State at Colorado	8:00pm	ESPN	C - 3.5 / 58.5 real line C - 8.5 / 58.5
North American at Stephen F. Austin	8:00pm	ESPN+	S - 58.5 / 60.5
Monmouth at Eastern Washington	9:00pm	SWX/ESPN+	EW - 6.5 / 62.5
Eastern Illinois at Illinois	9:00pm	BTN	I - 34.5 / 48.5 real line I - 30.5 / 44.5
Southern Utah at 12 Utah	9:00pm	ESPN+	U - 35.5 / 51.5 real line U - 37.5 / 52.5
Sacramento State at San Jose State	10:00pm	truTV/Max	SJ - 10.5 / 56.5

Friday, August 30

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile	Massey PR Spread
Lehigh at Army	6:00pm	CBSSN	A - 34.5 / 48.5
Colgate at Maine	7:00pm	FloFootball	M - 5.5 / 55.5
Elon at Duke	7:30pm	ACCN	D - 30.5 / 49.5 real line D - 23.5 / 49.5

Saturday, August 31

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile	Massey PR Spread
Illinois State at 25 Iowa	12:00pm	BTN	I - 27.5 / 43.5
Bucknell at Navy	12:00pm	CBSSN	N -34.5 / 49.5
Austin Peay at Louisville	12:00pm	ACCN	L - 28.5 / 51.5 real line L - 34.5 / 54.5
Indiana State at Purdue	12:00pm	BTN	P -34.5 / 49.5 real line P - 36.5 / 47.5
Saint Francis U. at Dayton	12:00pm	Facebook Live	S -13.5 / 52.5
Virginia-Lynchburg at Wagner	12:00pm	NEC Front Row	W - 32.5 / 51.5
Davidson at Georgetown	12:30pm	ESPN+	G -10.5 / 58.5
Chattanooga at 15 Tennessee	12:45pm	SECN	T - 37.5 / 51.5 real line T - 41.5 / 56.5
Upper Iowa at Butler	1:00pm	FloFootball	B - 18.5 / 50.5
South Dakota State at 17 Oklahoma State	2:00pm	ESPN+	O - 7.5 / 54.5 real line O - 9.5 / 54.5
Towson at Cincinnati	2:30pm	ESPN+	C - 31.5 / 52.5 real line C - 33.5 / 53.5
Portland State at Washington State	3:00pm	The CW	W - 31.5 / 58.5 real line W - 31.5 / 60.5
ETSU at Appalachian State	3:30pm	ESPN+	A - 34.5 / 55.5
North Dakota at Iowa State	3:30pm	FS1	I - 29.5 / 52.5 real line I - 27.5 / 52.5
Western Illinois at NIU	3:30pm	ESPN+	N - 30.5 / 52.5
Merrimack at Air Force	3:30pm	CBSSN	A - 40.5 / 48.5
Lincoln (CA) at Northern Arizona	4:00pm	ESPN+	NA - 45.5 / 54.5
UC Davis at California	5:00pm	ACCNX	C - 23.5 / 53.5 real line C - 22.5 / 53.5
Stony Brook at Marshall	5:00pm	ESPN+	M - 31.5 / 50.5
Valparaiso at Northern Iowa	5:00pm	PSN TV / Marquee / ESPN+	NI - 30.5 / 52.5
Ave Maria at Stetson	6:00pm	ESPN+	S - 21.5 / 55.5
MVSU at Tennessee State	6:00pm	ESPN+	T - 20.5 / 45.5
Morgan State at Hampton	6:00pm	FloFootball	H - 3.5 / 49.5
Delaware State at Sacred Heart	6:00pm	TV TBA	S - 13.5 / 48.5
Samford at West Georgia	6:00pm	ESPN+	S - 16.5 / 56.5
The Citadel at Charleston Sou.	6:00pm	ESPN+	CS -7.5 / 46.5
SC State at Florida A&M	6:00pm	ESPN+	F-10.5 / 49.5
Campbell at Liberty	6:00pm	ESPN+	L -30.5 / 58.5
Norfolk State at East Carolina	6:00pm	ESPN+	EC - 37.5 / 51.5
Richmond at Virginia	6:00pm	ACCNX	V - 22.5 / 53.5 real line V - 21.5 / 51.5
Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State	6:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+	M - 30.5 / 54.5 real line M - 29.5 / 58.5
Idaho State at Oregon State	6:30pm	The CW	O - 40.5 / 54.5 real line O - 34.5 / 50.5
Texas Southern at Prairie View A&M	7:00pm	ESPN+	PV - 3.5 / 55.5
North Alabama at Memphis	7:00pm	ESPN+	M - 34.5 / 58.5
LIU at UAlbany	7:00pm	FloFootball	A - 27.5 / 50.5
Tennessee Tech at Middle Tennessee	7:00pm	ESPN+	MT - 27.5 / 50.5
Bethune-Cookman at USF	7:00pm	ESPN+	SF - 35.5 /55.5
Furman at 6 Ole Miss	7:00pm	SECN+/ESPN+	M - 35.5 / 51.5 real line M - 42.5 / 60.5
Central Arkansas at Arkansas State	7:00pm	ESPN+	A - 10.5 / 55.5
Northern Colorado at UIW	7:00pm	ESPN+	IW - 14.5 / 55.5
Holy Cross at Rhode Island	7:00pm	FloFootball	HC - 3.5 / 58.5
UT Martin at 18 Kansas State	7:00pm	ESPN+	K - 37.5 / 54.5 real line K - 37.5 / 55.5
Tarleton State at Baylor	7:00pm	ESPN+	B - 31.5 / 55.5
Abilene Christian at Texas Tech	7:30pm	ESPN+	TT - 35.5 / 53.5 real line TT - 32.5 / 56.5
Idaho at 3 Oregon	7:30pm	BTN	O - 35.5 / 55.5 real line O - 43.5 / 62.5
Alabama A&M at Auburn	7:30pm	SECN+/ESPN+	Aub-47.5 / 53.5 real line Aub-49.5 / 56.5
Southern Illinois at BYU	8:00pm	ESPN+	B - 15.5 / 51.5 real line B - 18.5 / 48.5
Lamar at Texas State	8:00pm	ESPN+	T - 29.5 / 55.5
Cal Poly at San Diego	8:00pm	ESPN+	CP - 7.5 / 54.5
Texas A&M-Commerce at San Diego State	8:00pm	truTV/Max	SD - 34.5 / 48.5
Nicholls at Louisiana Tech	8:00pm	ESPN+	LT - 11.5 / 57.5
HCU at SMU	8:00pm	ACCNX	S - 42.5 / 55.5
Grambling State at Louisiana	8:00pm	ESPN+	UL - 38.5 / 53.5
Southern at McNeese	8:00pm	ESPN+	M - 3.5 / 53.5
Missouri State at Montana	9:00pm	MTN/ESPN+	Mont-10.5 / 55.5
Southeast Missouri at New Mexico State	9:00pm	ESPN+	NMSt-13.5 / 54.5
Montana State at Utah Tech	10:00pm	ESPN+	MS - 22.5 / 57.5
Weber State at Washington	11:00pm	BTN	UW - 33.5 / 54.5 real line UW - 27.5 / 52.5
Robert Morris at Utah State	Time TBA	TV TBA	U - 35.5 / 54.5

Sunday, September 1

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile	Massey PR Spread
Alabama State vs NC Central (in Miami Gardens, FL)	3:00pm	ESPN	NCC-6.5 / 51.5

 

[B.A.R.]

Awesome!

 

[HUNT]

My dude. Good luck!

 

[wiseplayer]

I believe we also have FSU vs G Tech on the 24th. GL!

 

[s--k]

I believe we also have FSU vs G Tech on the 24th. GL!

Not in this thread we don't

So the season starts with McNeese at Tarleton State. Cliffton McDowell ended the season losing in the National Title game and he will start the season here now for McNeese. It was an interesting offseason for McDowell who entered the portal after the title game loss. He signed with Temple, then went back in the portal after the spring game, committed to Prairie View A&M, but then ultimately signed at McNeese. Think I heard a rumor he inquired about coming back to Montana somewhere along the line but supposedly was told he would have to compete for the job again and the lockroom may not have been real high on him coming back. The path he took makes you wonder how he really feels about being at McNeese. He's from Texas, originally was at ULL, then played at JUCO, then went to Central Ark, then to Montana and took over their QB job after some early QB shuffling and was key in their end of season run to the playoffs. All that being what it is, McNeese isn't a horrible spot to play QB considering it is Gary Goff at the helm there - went 22-3 in two years at Valdosta State making the playoffs both years and losing in the title game 2021 leading the NCAA Dll in yards per game at 527!

That success has not followed him here, Goff is now 4-17 and went winless last season (awarded a forfiet 2-0 win vs NW State). The offense does need to get it going, but it has been the defense that is just awful, terrible awful. Four teams ran for over 300y on them last year! I don't know much about their 16 FBS transfers, they do have 3 FCS transfers that should play, two DBs who have started at their prior team. The front 7 is where they really need help They did add back-to-back All Ivy LB out of Dartmouth and they return their own 2nd Tm AA Micah Davey (153 tackles last year!). 5 of their FBS guys are DL. They lose 3 of their top 5 off DL from last year so maybe that is a good thing.

Tarleton is really an up-and-coming team to watch out for. All under their current head coach, after a 23-2 record their last two years at Dll, they moved up to D1 spring covid year. For a transition team going to D1, they have never had a losing record in 4 years. This is their first year they are eligible for the playoffs. Last year they were the second best scoring and total O in the UAC. they were a #3/#4 defense in the UAC in ppg and yards allowed, but were the #1 pass eff D and led the league in sacks (26 in 11 games).

They bring back their QB Gabalis, but he isn't what makes the team go (226 ypg passing, 54.5% compl and just a 18-13 ratio and he isn't much of a running type), Tarleton led the league in rushing with 201.7 ypg (5.2) and 25 TDs. They ran for over 300y twice and finished the season with a 6.5 ypc 240y game on the ground at ACU. All 5 OL starters are back and actually the entire 2-deep from the end of last year returns. Three OL earned 1st or 2nd Tm UAC. Their top 4 RBs are all back, top 3 WRs for that matter too.

Now, on defense, they do lose a lot. All 3 of their All Conference players are gone including #1 and #2 tacklers and they 2 other starters transfer out. They only return
5 of their top 14 tacklers. They didn't add much in the portal though. They did pick up a PFF AA S out of Miss Valley State (I can't believe they had an AA there). He was actually PFF's #1 safety. But anyway, I see they only added a total of 2 defensive transfers in the portal which tells me this coaching staff likes their development of the roster.

This line is projecting to be over 2 TDs. Tarleton did win by 42 twice and also won twice by 17-18 pts including their week 1 game at McNeese last season (Tarleton was just a 3.5 pt road fav there). That game was just 17-17 HT, but 52-34 F with Tarleton having a 554-278 TY edge (7.5-3.6 ypp). Tarleton went Over 5 of their 9 games vs FCS last year. In one of their Unders, Tarleton won 42-0 (total of 60.5). Their average total vs FCS was 60.2.

McNeese was offensively challenged last year to say the least, but their games still went Over 6 out of 9 vs FCS with an average total of 52.9

Based on paper with the lack of defense experience returning for Tarleton and one would hope that with McDowell at QB that McNeese will have an improved offense, I can't imagine their D has improved all that much - I would think Over 55.5 is a good play if that is actually where it opens at (that's the Massey total). Unless McNees'e game plan is to protect their D and with McDowell now they can actually stay on the field better offensively. They had the worst 3rd down O other than NW State last year. Still would think Over is more likely than not. Was 53.5 last year (they scored 86 combined).

 

[wiseplayer]

Not in this thread we don't

So the season starts with McNeese at Tarleton State. Cliffton McDowell ended the season losing in the National Title game and he will start the season here now for McNeese. It was an interesting offseason for McDowell who entered the portal after the title game loss. He signed with Temple, then went back in the portal after the spring game, committed to Prairie View A&M, but then ultimately signed at McNeese. Think I heard a rumor he inquired about coming back to Montana somewhere along the line but supposedly was told he would have to compete for the job again and the lockroom may not have been real high on him coming back. The path he took makes you wonder how he really feels about being at McNeese. He's from Texas, originally was at ULL, then played at JUCO, then went to Central Ark, then to Montana and took over their QB job after some early QB shuffling and was key in their end of season run to the playoffs. All that being what it is, McNeese isn't a horrible spot to play QB considering it is Gary Goff at the helm there - went 22-3 in two years at Valdosta State making the playoffs both years and losing in the title game 2021 leading the NCAA Dll in yards per game at 527!

That success has not followed him here, Goff is now 4-17 and went winless last season (awarded a forfiet 2-0 win vs NW State). The offense does need to get it going, but it has been the defense that is just awful, terrible awful. Four teams ran for over 300y on them last year! I don't know much about their 16 FBS transfers, they do have 3 FCS transfers that should play, two DBs who have started at their prior team. The front 7 is where they really need help They did add back-to-back All Ivy LB out of Dartmouth and they return their own 2nd Tm AA Micah Davey (153 tackles last year!). 5 of their FBS guys are DL. They lose 3 of their top 5 off DL from last year so maybe that is a good thing.

Tarleton is really an up-and-coming team to watch out for. All under their current head coach, after a 23-2 record their last two years at Dll, they moved up to D1 spring covid year. For a transition team going to D1, they have never had a losing record in 4 years. This is their first year they are eligible for the playoffs. Last year they were the second best scoring and total O in the UAC. they were a #3/#4 defense in the UAC in ppg and yards allowed, but were the #1 pass eff D and led the league in sacks (26 in 11 games).

They bring back their QB Gabalis, but he isn't what makes the team go (226 ypg passing, 54.5% compl and just a 18-13 ratio and he isn't much of a running type), Tarleton led the league in rushing with 201.7 ypg (5.2) and 25 TDs. They ran for over 300y twice and finished the season with a 6.5 ypc 240y game on the ground at ACU. All 5 OL starters are back and actually the entire 2-deep from the end of last year returns. Three OL earned 1st or 2nd Tm UAC. Their top 4 RBs are all back, top 3 WRs for that matter too.

Now, on defense, they do lose a lot. All 3 of their All Conference players are gone including #1 and #2 tacklers and they 2 other starters transfer out. They only return
5 of their top 14 tacklers. They didn't add much in the portal though. They did pick up a PFF AA S out of Miss Valley State (I can't believe they had an AA there). He was actually PFF's #1 safety. But anyway, I see they only added a total of 2 defensive transfers in the portal which tells me this coaching staff likes their development of the roster.

This line is projecting to be over 2 TDs. Tarleton did win by 42 twice and also won twice by 17-18 pts including their week 1 game at McNeese last season. That game was just 17-17 HT, but 52-34 F with Tarleton having a 554-278 TY edge (7.5-3.6 ypp). Tarleton went Over 5 of their 9 games vs FCS last year. In one of their Unders, Tarleton won 42-0 (total of 60.5). Their average total vs FCS was 60.2.

McNeese was offensively challenged last year to say the least, but their games still went Over 6 out of 9 vs FCS with an average total of 52.9

Based on paper with the defense returning for Tarleton and one would hope that with McDowell at QB that McNeese will have an improved offense, I can't imagine their D has improved all that much - I would think Over 55.5 is a good play if that is actually where it opens at (that's the Massey total). Unless McNees'e game plan is to protect their D and with McDowell now they can actually stay on the field better offensively. They had the worst 3rd down O other than NW State last year. Still would think Over is more likely than not. Was 53.5 last year (they scored 86 combined).

Lol! I didn’t read the FCS part. Looking forward even more to these games and this thread for insight.

 

[s--k]

Very disappointing season for SEMO last year. 4-7, 3-3 in league play. There was a 3-game stretch of excruciating losses to Southern ILL, EKU and Central Arkansas - blown leads, unbelievable turnovers OT loss....BUT - they as much as it seems they should've or were in position to win those 3 games, they were significantly outgained in each. SIU outgained them by 206y, EKU outgained them by 110 and UCA outgained them by 82. So that put them at 1-4 record, they won 3 straight and then lost the final 3 including losing to Robert Morris as a 28.5pt home favorite (outgained by 78y).

They've made the playoffs 3x going back to 2018 so I want to try and not let last year throw off the fact that SEMO is a strong program traditionally. They had a 4-7 record in the fall of 2021 and came back in 2022 with a 9-3 season. Last year they had super RB Geno Hess back, experienced QB, good WRs - but that experienced QB DeLaurent got injured and missed the final 4 games. The offense dropped off a cliff and they lost their final 3 games. Geno Hess is SEMO's all time leading rusher with over 5000 yards to his credit, he barely cracks 1000 last season. They finished about mid-pack offensively in the Big South-OVC. But the defense was just so bad...last in total D, they were worse statistically on D than Lindenwood! Second to last in scoring D.

DeLaurent is back this year. But Hess is gone. They had WR Flourney get drafted in the 6th round, lost their #2 WR as well (actually 4 of top 5 pass catchers are gone - Hess was third). The OL has 5 back who started atleast 5 games last year. Looks like they are turning to an SMU transfer Epton at RB who has never really done much there. No significant WRs in the portal from FCS or FBS, signed some JUCOs, mostly expecting last year's depth players to play a bigger role. DeLaurent is probably the key, I would think offensively they can be pretty good, just the lost a lot of talent and experience at the RB and WR spots.

Defense...I don't know. LB they are good with #1 tkl'r and 1st Tm Bryce Norman back. They lose 3 of their next 4 top LBs (#3, #8 and #11 tacklers) but they brought in Pedroza from Northwestern St who has over 200 tackles in 5 years for them. They signed 3 LBs and 2 DBs both who have started at other FCS schools out of the portal which makes sense because they also lost their top 2 DBs who were #2 and #4 tacklers. They were 80 yards a game worse last season than 2022, a yard per play worse, a full TD worse. And they only had 14 sacks last year, just 2 were from the DL. 3 of the top 5 from DL are back. They had 28 team sacks in 2022.

I'd think they should revert closer to their normal good team self, just have to see some new players emerge to make a difference.

They were 2-4-1 ATS as a favorite last year. I guess I am surprised to see them positioned as over a TD fav on a neutral field over North Alabama. The game is in Montgomery, the same field that UNA opened at last season and played Mercer pretty even, losing 7-17 as a 21.5 pt dog. UNA was really up and down last year. They beat Chattanooga a playoff team by 14, they led them 21-10 HT and finished with a slight yardage edge. Then over the course of the next few games they led Tarleton 28-17 and Utah Tech 21-10 at HT but would lose both. They outgained EKU and ACU by 100 and 90 yards, but lost both. They finished 3-8, 4-4-1 as dogs ATS. Turnovers were a problem, they lost 3+ TOs in 4 games. Some of those turnovers are gone, starting QB Noah Walters threw 13 of them. TJ Smith played some last year, from FAU, not very good. They brought in a seldom used QB from Stanford, he started once in 2021 and he has appeared to win the starting job, Ari Patu. He's 6' 4" and mobile. Nobody on UNA's O was All Conference, but they do return 4 of their top 5 WRs, 4 OL who had multiple starts last year return, but they also lose 4 who had multiple starts. #1 RB transfered. The O failed to top 300y 4x , but they they gained over 500y 3x. It was a mid-to-lower tier UAC D. They do have 8 starters back on D. 12 of their top 15 tacklers are back led by 1st Tm S White-Schultz. They basically lose a DL, a LB and a CB from their starting roster. HC and both coordinators all enter year #2.

I don't know on this one. Tempted to think that North Alabama + the pts here. SEMO has the QB, a good one, but largely new skill players being relied upon. D was awful last year, normally it isn't. North Alabama has a new QB, WRs are experienced, OL was shuffled a lot last year, probably should be better this year. The D wasn't great last year, a lot of those guys back. Year 2 for staff and year 2 opening in the same game at the same stadium instate for week 0. Think I like some of the intangibles for UNA + over a TD I lean that way. Not sure I play it or not.

 

[s--k]

Florida A&M unbelievably started 0-4 ATS last year as a favorite (opened the year dogged and went 2-0 ATS 1-1 SU in those). Despite clearly being the best team in the SWAC on paper, which they ultimately showed on the field and in the Celebration Bowl - they didn't start taking it to their opponents until game #7 when they reeled off 4 straight covers (a non-lined Dll game was in there as well) and then they capped the season with an exciting game, a noncover vs Howard, but ultimately a HBCU Title.

This year a lot has changed. Just recently the AD changed. After Willie Simmons left, the search and proposed candidate the AD came up with didn't sit well with FAMU alumni and backers and players. She had selected a Dll coach. That's not who they hired. Instead they hired two year defensive position coach James Colzie. I think Willie Simmons was pretty key for that team. I don't know if the coach the AD wanted to hire and basically was vetoed on or Colzie is the better choice. Time will tell, but losing Simmons either way is pretty big. He took an assistant position at Duke with hopes of moving up the FBS coaching ladder someday.

Back at FAMU there is a lot of new. One Co-OC was on staff last year, the other Co-OC was brought in. SWAC O POY QB Moussa is gone after a terrific career, their back up Muratovic or Central Mich/FAU transfer Daniel Richardson is set to take over. The top 4 receivers are gone, 3 of the top 4 RBs are gone. Thankfully they do return 6 of their top 10 OL from season's end, 3 starters are back, but they do lose their only 1st Tm SWAC selection at RT. Their LT was 2nd Tm. A few FBS transfers have stood out in fall camp at WR, TE and OL to make immediate impacts there.

On D, they lost perhaps even more. Their #1 tackling LB was D POY in SWAC, he's gone. #2, #3 are off to the FBS along with two others also going FBS. They had 7 All SWAC defenders off the Dark Cloud D last year, only 1 is back. A few guys hoped in the portal but came back to the team, so assuming I have this right, only 4 of their top 16 tacklers are back! 4 FBS transfers are expected to start right away and 3 key reserves from last year's starting unit are poised to make their own impact now. Just a lot of turnover there.

It's a great program and tradition, so I don't know if they'll have a huge drop off, but some must be expected.

This is the SWAC-MEAC Challenge played in Atlanta and the opponent is Norfolk State. Not a very good team in year 4 of HC Odums. They will have their 4th OC in 4 years after last year's guy left for Buffalo. They did make a full TD improvement from '22 to '23 in scoring O to average 24 ppg last year. They brought in longtime Alcorn assistant and recently OC to run their O and Alcorn generally has some good offenses. Norfolk returns their starting QB form last year Kuhns, who is ok, better runner and a 50-50 passer, 12-7 ratio last year, 254y rushing. He has 18 career starts, but is being challenged by a JUCO QB Daniels. Whoever wins that job will play behind an OL that returns 4 starters off what was a very young OL. Norfolk has been playing tFr all over the place due to some depth issues. This team does look like their most complete of Odum's tenure with more returnees and less holes to plug. They did lose their starting RT to UAB. 3 of the other OL made preseason 2nd Tm SWAC list. Top WR graduated but the next 4 WRs are back including their #3 who only played in 5 games til injury and was still #3 - although it was just with 172 yards! Top couple RBs return as well and the expectation is the O can take another step forward like it did last year.

Defense is a middle to lower 1/3 type MEAC D. They actually had 4 players on D earn 2nd Tm MEAC and 3 of 4 return led by LB AJ Richardson who was #1 in tackles starting as a tFr last year! The only spot they are weak on depth is nickle/rover so they shift a starting LB over there as they now have better LB depth to do that. 20 of the guys that made DD tackles last year, 15 are back.

This might kind of be an interesting game. You have Norfolk who won't be mistaken as a good team, but they occasionally play well. They beat Hampton as a 13.5 pt dog and they beat Towson as a 17.5 dog last year on the road. They only lost to Howard by 4, outgained by just 17y (Howard is the team that took FAMU to the wire in the Celebration Bowl).

Then you have a FAMU team that is off a fantastic season, but one in which they didn't always put the hammer down on teams like they could or should've for whatever reason. Alot of transition happening. If the line were to get at or over 2 TDs I might take a shot on Norfolk, will be watching when a real line gets released.

 

[s--k]

I previously thought the Under looked like a pick in the offseason thread for Montana State - New Mexico. Definitely think Montana State wins that game, but with the line north of a TD, don't really have the appetite to lay that even with one of the best FCS teams vs one of the lowest run Group of 5 teams - all things considered. It's Bronco back where he's familiar and his defensive players are familiar with his scheme. Both Ds should be good enough to kind of make it a dull game to watch in the kind of offensive styles that will be on the field.

And I'm not going to spend a lot of time looking into Delaware State - Hawaii. Honestly, it takes me an hour to an hour and a half to size up each team enough to have some educated material to post and Delaware State just is not worth the time. They gave up over 600 yards twice last year defensively (NCCU and MiaOh), gave up over 500y three times last year SC State, Army .... and Central Connecticut State of all offenses to go for that on them. If you play that game you just have to lay it and hope it plays out where Hawaii gets up enough early and the reserves are good enough for Hawaii to keep the margin. Reading other members here optimism on Hawaii this year is good for that, but they could also be up 41-10 in the 2H at some point and kind of mail it in down the stretch. So not a real fun thing to have to do, but it would obviously be Hawaii or nothing in that game. Even the total, yeah, Hawaii can do a lot of heavy lifting towards a 55.5 pt total - but they have UCLA on deck and will they really want to pour it on vs this team ....best to just go to bed early Saturday night and look towards other things.

One thing that is really making for longer prep times on these games is the Phil Steele FCS preview is very incomplete one week out from games starting. They are adding to it as they complete more previews but it hasn't been updated in days and they are running way way behind. The other thing is I've found some errors in it making it 100% hard to trust and know if it is accurate. Obviously they are rushed and having to throw it together here at the last minute. I have all my own data and sources I can and am using, but it just takes so much more time to compile it when somebody else should've of summarized the bulk of it already in a paid season preview. So that has been a big let down up to this point. I have some ideas on how I can set myself up next season with some work in December and January but that will have to wait until the offseason.

 

[s--k]

I'm not going to go in order for any of the week 1 thoughts.

One game that has been jumping out to me is East Tennessee State at App State.

ETSU brought over Trey Lamb from Gardner Webb and brought 20+ GW transfers, basically the entire team - starting QB, 5 GW WRs, 2 TEs, 3 starting OL, 3 DL, 2 top GW LBs, 3 DBs. That combined with the best returning ETSU players makes for an interesting team given that fact that GW was really good down the stretch last year (won final 5 regular season games and made playoffs). GW opened with App State last year. They were starting a different QB in week 1 before Jaylen King took over. App State was -22.5, won by 21 outgaining GW by just 34 yards (GW -3 TOs).

Now, granted, how it comes together for ETSU team may not hit right off the bat and I do understand that this App State team appears positioned stronger than where last season's team began. Except for maybe they are vulnerable on OL. But the spread is looking like it could be 34.5. Take the best pieces of that GW team, combine them with what's left of ETSU - seeing the line be 12 points higher makes me think that is something I want to play. Clearly the PR is soley going off of the 2023 team of ETSU without factoring it is essentially 2023 GW's team.

 

[oakas]

Great information s--k.

Thanks and keep them coming.

 

[s--k]

Most certainly the Villanova number will not be 4.5. It was 6.5 last year in the playoffs and YSU will be a different team. Might be a little hard to gameplan vs them offensively - their OL is a strength and their run game with the expected athletic QB. That is one thing that will be different and could play into YSU's advantage. But defensively, I would expect YSU to take some time to come together and while I have not dug into Villanova yet - by all accounts they are going to be just as good and perhaps better than last year. Villanova beat YSU in the playoffs last year 45-28 with a 97 yard edge.

After saying what I said about Gardner Webb above, seeing them lined as potentially 9.5 pt favorite over Wofford is intreguing. GW brings in a ton of transfers and I've done no work on them yet. Wofford beat Furman in the finale last year and it isn't like Furman didn't need that game. Had they won that game they could've hosted a third round game instead of traveling to Montana. Wofford also only lost to WCU by 3 in the final month of the season. They might be coming off the mat a little bit.

Jackson State would appear to be an upset candidate to win at ULM. Getting 20?

Fordham and the points at Bowling Green is interesting to me.

Bryant lost their pretty good QB to Washington State. If Bryant is taking a step back, Delaware could roll them.

Our friend bookieassassin raised some very good points on Tulsa over Northwestern State that make that a good lay the points spot with Tulsa.

I had some ramblings about Sac State maybe being a candidate to beat San Jose in the off season thread.

Kind of feel like this is a good spot for Eastern Washington. Need to confirm what Monmouth lost/added and has coming back.

These Thursday 8/29 games will be my focus for the next several days.

 

[s--k]

Here is the recon on Gardner Webb.

QBs who started the first 5 til injury (Caldwell) and the final 7 (King) are gone. King was up and down, but when he was on he was pretty good. #2 rusher. The likely starter is going to be former JUCO AA and 2021 Presbyterian record setting QB Ren Hefley (passed for 3934 yards in a season there). He was at MTSU last year, but only saw mop up duty in one game.

The top 7 pass catchers are gone. They add a Tiffin WR who was Dll AA (Lowe) and also add a Murray St WR who was All OVC in 2022. Tiffin's starting TE is in as is a UTChatt TE who has played in 23 games. 5 other FBS WR/TEs were signed.

GW loses their #1 and #2 RBs and QBs were #3 and #4. A St Francis transfer who has 500y in 2 years is in as is a Temple RB (Saydee) and a Tiffin RB (Gresock).

The OL only has 1 starter back. The reserves were very very young last year, 4 of those 5 reserves do return. They brought in a 3 year starting OL from Tiffin and only 1 other FBS transfer from App State, but he is not listed on the current roster, no FCS transfers. Seems odd given how much they need bodies here. OL most definitely looks weak.

The D not only loses 10 of 11 starters, but 13 of the top 21 tacklers transferred out leaving just 3 of their top 21 tacklers back on this year's team! Two DL with DD tackles are back. They added a Tiffin DL Holtz who was that league's DL POY and 2 FBS transfers. Essentially every LB is gone. They will rely heavily on inexperienced transfers here. ECU LB Young with 1 career tackle will be "plugged into the middle:, a Marshall LB Jackson Marshall is likely a game 1 starter, he has no previous career stats and the other LB is looking to be Western Mich's Cannon who has 21 career tackles in 3 seasons, mostly on special teams.

They return one CB who started 5 last year. They bring in an Illinois St CB who started all 11 last year and a Delaware DB Rose who had 1 start in '23 was said to "compete immediately". They add 2 other FBS transfers.

The HC is from Tiffin, he went 40-11 there. The OC if from Tiffin as is the RB and WR coaches. The QB coach was at MTSU last year (so was QB Hefley). The DC was a Saftey coach at Western Michigan last year.

It's a group that will be thrown together from a lot of different places that is for sure!

So with Wofford, the problem is offense. Don't know who they are playing at QB. All 3 who started last year are back and all 3 weren't good. The top 4 RBs are back and the OL is decent, LT Quincy Huges is one of the better tackles in the SoCon, 58 starts are back from the 3 returnees and 3 reserves who started at least 1 last year return who comebine for 11 career starts. #1 WR is gone, but the next 4 are back for whatever that is worth.

Defense is what made Wofford problematic for some teams last year. They went from allowing 31.8 to 25.3 ppg and cut the ypg from 433 to 354. They finished with the #1 pass eff D in the SoCon. 7 starters are back here. They lose probably their best DL, but have 2 other starters from a 3 man line back (one was 2nd Tm) and some depth. Lost their #2 tackler at LB to Tennessee, but they bring back a 2nd Tm SoCon LB, another starter and some depth. Plus they are getting back a 2022 starter at LB. 6 of the top 8 DBs are back, they only lose a starting S and a part-time starting CB.

Shawn Watson enters his 2nd full season as HC here after finishing 2022 as the HC as well. There is a new passing game coordinator/TE coach and a new WR coach. The QB, RB and OL position coaches are all back. The Co-DCs are back. I assume Watson is the actual OC as he has been for most of the last 20+ years at various FBS schools, not always with the most effectiveness.

This game comes down to the experience and defensive improvement from Wofford coupled with some end of season competitiveness as dogs vs their league's top teams. Gardner Webb has a Dll coach stepping up mostly with his assistants and a whole new roster basically of players that need to come together quick. GW is back-to-back Big South / OVC champs, but the only thing those teams have in common with this one is the name and the uniforms. The biggest concern with Wofford is going to be their offense and QB play. Might assume the turnover on D for GW could/should help that? Looking towards playing Wofford at a number over a TD. Wofford has played good defenses in the SoCon, I can't think GW is going to be all that together out of the gate. I don't think it would be so unheard of if they won outright considering the circumstances. It was less than one year ago they lost outright as a 31 pt favorite to Presbyterian so, this started out 2023 as a historically bad Wofford team.

 

[s--k]

So Jackson State has never beaten an FBS program. The last time they played in 2021 ULM they were oh so close, losing 7-12. ULM was 2-10 last year and has a new coaching staff and naturally a lot of new players.

Jackson State is not as good as they were at their peak in 2022 and preseason coaches and SIDs around the SWAC have noticed, picking them 3rd in the East this year. They could certainly finish better than that.

They had the #1 SWAC YPG O last year with 389, but were only #4 in ppg 27.3. It was slightly worse vs just the SWAC. Defensively they were only #4 ypg allowed at 335.8 and scoring 23.9 ppg. One big difference from 2022 to 2023, 48 sacks in ’22. 29 last year. And the run D at times let them down, there was Texas St rushing for 399 on them. Maybe that isn't a fair comparison given the jump Texas State made last year. That is a Sun Belt opponent though. That game aside, they did allow over 6 ypc once vs SWAC and another 5 ypc in league play. The pass D was pretty good, leading the league with 17 INTs last year in just 11 games (FAMU also had 17, but in 13 games).

So it definitely is not the same team, but still pretty good for SWAC.

Brown started the first 7 games at QB and the O at times left a lot to be desired. They started Morgan vs MVSU and the next 4, improved the passing game (10-1 ratio) and was a better runner. He is formerly from Syracuse. Brown is gone, but a full season of Morgan should be better. They are stacked at RB. Mulligan was leading SWAC when he was injured in game 6. He’s back and they have a deep unit. They do lose their best OL in RT, but they return 2x All SWAC C Henry (Henry actually played for ULM when these two met last). Top 3 WRs are back, TE is a question right now after they lost a 2nd Tm guy and one of their next man up reserves is in the portal but still on the roster, he could return. If not, they may put a RB at TE. I feel the O should be better scoring this year. There were 3 SWAC games last year they had a 100-150 total yard edge over their opponent, but failed to win or cover with margins under a TD due to some RZ inefficiencies or 3rd down conversions. The O really should be better than it was last year. Was frustrating at times if you were playing their games.

The D, there is some question. 6 of top 10 tacklers gone, 9 of top 16 gone overall. The top 2 tacklers are gone, both LBs and LB has been a good position for JSU the last 2 years, now it’s a void. A Bryant starter and NW State starter will play right away. The DL loses an edge and interior guy to UNLV and FAU respectively. But 3 of the top 4 DTs and 2 of the top 3 DEs are back. Secondary is likely the strength of the D, the ‘no fly zone’ returns 3 of top 5 safeties, have 1 starting CB back while losing the other CB and both NBs. They have some good transfers here, guys who have played well for Alcorn and an experienced multiyear reserve from Portland St. Plus they add a late signee JUCO AA Hawkins for fall camp.

No possible way this line can be 20.5 as the Massey PR says. Sagarin '24 PR is out, they have it about 12-13. That is probably still too high. These teams might not be all that different in talent, depth yes, but front line guys, no. Jackson State might be better and could win. This isn't even the toughest game Jackson will play on their 2024 schedule and should be considered winnable. Last time this line was ULM-5 week 2 of 2021.

 

[s--k]

Monmouth has had a great offense in the CAA lately. They finished #2 in that league with PPG 32.45 and 432 ypg. The points and yards were just slightly higher in 2022 when they were #1 in both categories!

The offense will look different this year. First off, they will have a new transfer QB for the second straight year. But more importantly Jaden Shirden is gone after having rushed for 3697 yards in his Monmouth career with 14 TDs of 50+ yards and 6 200y games. He’s a 2x CAA O POY winner. Also the OL will be new as well. 4 starters are gone including both of their All CAA players and 2 other players who transferred to FBS. They return a 5th Yr SR RT in Cornelius, after him they return 4 top reserves that only have a combined 1 start between them. The only significant transfer they signed was from Purdue, a guy who has 2 career starts there. Their 2023 OL did have 4 FCS games where they allowed 5+ sacks.

Back at RB they have their #2 back. Shirden got 221 carries and #2 Sone Ntoh only carried 56 times, but made the most of it with 411 yards and 14 TDs! Their reserves also return. QB is going to be Maine QB Derek Robertson who has played in 21 career games and threw for 2933 yards last year. He was better in the second half than in the first half of the season last year. Finished with a 25-13 ratio. McCray was 21-6 TD-INT with similar yardage and completion %. Neither is a runner. The QB swap is probably a wash. They lose their 1st Tm CAA #1 WR Miller to Rutgers as well as their #2. Those guys combined for over 120 receptions and about 1800 yards. The top two TEs return as well as their #3 WR and some reserves who didn't accumulate many stats. Surprisingly Monmouth did not make many big additions here in the portal. Just a JUCO WR Max Jones who caught 24-398-5TDs last year. He formerly played 7 games at JMU.

The offense lacks star power compared to what they had last year. Ntoh was 2nd Tm CAA as the #2 RB, but their other recognized All CAA players, 4 of them, are gone including high quality players Shirden and Miller.

Defense, some of their games go poorly, but overall on the surface they don’t rate bad. About mid-pack in the league. Their D cut a TD off the 2022 PPG of 34 down to 27 last year. Still the RZ D however wasn’t good. 4 times they had opponents go 100% for TDs on their RZ trips and they were second to last in league at RZ D %. And the pass eff D was below average (63% and 23-8 ratio allowed).

One DL transferred to Buffalo and another to Montana, they get 4 of 8 back, basically the rotational reserves will now be starting. They lose their #1 tackler at LB, but 5 of the next 6 LBs are back. They have added to the lineup with some decent FCS transfers to the front 7 as well. The secondary is a big of a concern. 3 of the top 4 Safeties are gone and the top 2 CBs as well. They do add a 3 year guy from Temple who often started and a guy from 'Nova who has played in 35 career games.

Eastern Washington is a pretty experienced team. Returning QB, top RB, top 2 WRs, 4 OL starters (100+ starts back). The O had a pretty big drop in 2022, but it is going the right way again now. They were #4 Big Sky in PPG and YPG last year. The D is the area of concern for EWU. Thankfully for them atleast, this is not last year’s Monmouth O they are facing. The familiarity and cohesion should be missing early and one of the all timer recent RBs in FCS is off the roster. The EWU D looks like they might be poised for some improved play on D. Will be interesting to see when the UW transfer Anthony James plays (was #39 DL in country out of HS). Secondary they should be fine. They do look weaker at LB at the start of the season.

I am going to assume that the Monmouth O will take a step back considering some of the changes after 2 pretty good seasons and the D might end up about the same probably, but vulnerable perhaps early in the season especially against a good offense such as EWU will field. Massey is showing the line to be 6.5. Sagarin suggests maybe 12. 6.5 is low. EWU was 3-1 ATS and SU as a home fav last year. This is the first season EWU opens with back-to-back home games since 2014 and I think they get their season started off on a good foot. Will see where they open this number at.

 

[s--k]

Norfolk named the JUCO Jalen Daniels their starting QB. Kuhns will be held out the first 4 games due to some ncaa ruling. Daniels stats at Garden City CC doesn't exactly inspire confidence especially considering he's going to debut vs a FAMU D rather than a Virginia State or somebody like that. 57.1% 1,282 yards 9-10 ratio last year. Would've felt better trying to fade FAMU had Norfolk been going in this game with Kuhns.

 

[carolinablue]

Hoping to get at least 14.5 with both Lafayette and Jackson State, as I think both have a shot to be their respective games late into the 4th quarter.

Took SIU early on at 19.5 as I liked that one at anything above 17.

Missed the early line on Illinois State but may take a shot if it gets back to 24.5.

Thought about S Dakota State but was hoping for more points as the value isn’t there for me at 9.5.

Appreciate all the insight man, great stuff!

 

[s--k]

Hoping to get at least 14.5 with both Lafayette and Jackson State, as I think both have a shot to be their respective games late into the 4th quarter.

Took SIU early on at 19.5 as I liked that one at anything above 17.

Missed the early line on Illinois State but may take a shot if it gets back to 24.5.

Thought about S Dakota State but was hoping for more points as the value isn’t there for me at 9.5.

Appreciate all the insight man, great stuff!

I haven't got into any Patriot League teams yet, but Lafayette is on the radar. Loved that team last year.

Need to look into Colgate, they finished the year last season 3-0 ATS with two ML wins, they travel Friday night to what I assume at this point is a weak Maine team. No work done there yet.

Agree on Jackson State, but I don't think that will be the line. I'd say maybe about a TD is my guess by the time it comes out of 5dimes into our outlets.

I have no knowledge on BYU so I am hesitant to say on SIU. I do think that team has potential to regroup and make a playoff push this year. But there is a lot new that needs to come together and a road trip to Provo isn't ideal. If it is coming together for them then they can hang around.

I'm still pondering Illinois State. Big ask to hang around at Iowa, but I do like that team. I'm thinking maybe they can score up to 13 points? Not sure how many Iowa can get, assuming they will be better now on O.

Last year's South Dakota State team I would play for sure. They are just a few notches weaker this year that probably won't matter a whole lot in almost all their FCS games, but could matter in an FBS game.

What do you think on Elon - Duke? You asked me about Western Carolina - NC State, but I haven't made it to that one yet.

 

[carolinablue]

I haven't got into any Patriot League teams yet, but Lafayette is on the radar. Loved that team last year.

Need to look into Colgate, they finished the year last season 3-0 ATS with two ML wins, they travel Friday night to what I assume at this point is a weak Maine team. No work done there yet.

Agree on Jackson State, but I don't think that will be the line. I'd say maybe about a TD is my guess by the time it comes out of 5dimes into our outlets.

I have no knowledge on BYU so I am hesitant to say on SIU. I do think that team has potential to regroup and make a playoff push this year. But there is a lot new that needs to come together and a road trip to Provo isn't ideal. If it is coming together for them then they can hang around.

I'm still pondering Illinois State. Big ask to hang around at Iowa, but I do like that team. I'm thinking maybe they can score up to 13 points? Not sure how many Iowa can get, assuming they will be better now on O.

Last year's South Dakota State team I would play for sure. They are just a few notches weaker this year that probably won't matter a whole lot in almost all their FCS games, but could matter in an FBS game.

What do you think on Elon - Duke? You asked me about Western Carolina - NC State, but I haven't made it to that one yet.

Thanks for the detailed reply…To answer your question, I don’t think there is much value at 23.5 in the Elon game as Duke should struggle this year and Elon is overmatched for sure but no value is needing Duke to win by 24 given all the new pieces to the puzzle over there. If WCU can get a few points on the board, the over may be worth a look vs State as that one could be a 48-17 type game potentially.

 

[s--k]

Delaware State football's long trip to face Hawaii in the team's season opener just got longer. The Star-Advertiser in Honolulu reported Tuesday that the Hornets missed their scheduled 10.5-hour flight to the city because of what was termed "a bus snafu" as the team attempted to reach John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. A spokeswoman for Delaware State told the outlet that officials were "working on a plan" to get the team to Hawaii. The game is scheduled for Saturday at 6 p.m. local time. The Rainbow Warriors haven't played an HBCU team since they met Prairie View A&M in 1979, and it will be their first-ever meeting against Delaware State. Hawaii has a 20-game winning streak against FCS teams dating back to 2011, with an average win margin of 25.9 points per game. Hawaii finished the 2023 season with a 5-8 record (3-5 Mountain West Conference). Delaware State was 1-10 (0-5 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference). --Field Level Media

Read more at: https://www.sacbee.com/sports/college/article291221725.html#storylink=cpy

 

[carolinablue]

Great stuff, thanks for sharing!

 

[s--k]

Back to crunching some games the next few days.

Phil Steele's 2024 preview still lacks write-ups for 6 of the 7 teams playing in 3 days. Inexcusably incomplete!

Looked in Bryant and Delaware. Didn't know that Bryant has only been playing football since 1999, they went Dl in 2008. They join the CAA this year and it is technically their 4th conference in 4 years. Delaware on the other hand is leaving the CAA for greener pastures of the FBS and CUSA. The Hens are ineligible for the CAA title or FCS playoffs this year which always kind of makes it hard to estimate what a season like that may be like.

Bryant's 3 year starting QB Zevi Eckhaus transferred to Washington State where he lost the QB battle and will be second string there. He threw for over 8500 yards during his time at Bryant. The offense will look different this year. They bring in a pretty decent looking QB from Coastal Carolina in Jarrett Guest who was their back up but saw some starts and significant playing time over the last 3 years. He will allow this offense to do more with QB run. Eckhaus was mobile, but his arm led the way. Bryant closed last year passing for 300+ yards in their final 4 including 403 in the finale. That won't be the case this year. After a decent looking QB, their offense on paper does not look strong at all. They lose 6 of their top 7 receivers including 3 2nd Tm players and their top 2 TEs. They return only their #3 WR and didn't make any good additions in the portal, just a kid from Ohio who was a good returnman, but never caught a pass. The OL is equally wiped out losing 4 full time starters including both their All Conference guys. Some of their depth guys have 1-2 career starts and they will also look towards a Bethune Cookman and Northwestern St OL to step in. They do return their top RB for whatever that is worth. They had #1 Big South / OVC PPG O 31.6 and the #2 YPG O at 383 last year. Doubt they get close to that this year.

Defense, they were about a middle pack D in their league. 5 starters transferred out on D and they lose 4 of their top 5 tacklers and 6 of their top 8 overall. 3 DL starters are gone including a 1st Tm guy, but they do return a good interior 2nd Tm player in Otty. 3 of the top 4 LBs are back, but sometimes these guys play S/hybrid roles so hard to tell. 2 starting CBs are gone, overall 3 of their top 4 CBs are gone. S is a good position for them with 3 of top 4, and again sometimes these guys drop down into LB roles too. For the voids they are adding a couple highlighted names by way of transfer. I looked through and see that none have any significant playing time, all under 10 career tackles.

They do have a new OC this year, promoted from within, he was their RB and WR coach formerly.

One would think this is going to be a rough year for Bryant. If it weren't for the upside that Guest brings at QB this would be a very poor looking team.

Delware is pretty much the opposite.

The first thing that jumped out to me, I saw they started 5 Sr OL last year and I thought, well they will be taking a hit there. Nope. This year they will unbelievably be starting 5 Grad Sr OL! These guys will be entering their 3rd year starting full time and in some cases a couple have 4 years of starting! The reserves have played as well, 4 of the reserves I checked have seen 23 career games total. At QB the Hens return all 3 who started last year. O'Connor was injured, he started 10 I think. 2104-56%-19.8. Marker was first up til he also got injured. 135ypg-65%-3-2 and he is mobile. Marker started the Towson game with a Delaware record 16 straight completions! Then after he was hurt, they had to turn to Minicucci who played in 6 and started the Lafayette playoff game. He is your running type. He was 16-25-198-3-3 with 46y net rushing vs Laf. So all those guys are back and they return a 2nd Tm near 1000y RB in Marcus Yarns. #2 RB is gone, but the rest of the depth is back. Yarns was also #5 receiver. Now, receiver, that is where the bad news for Delaware is. They lose their top 3 WRs and their 2nd Tm TE who was #4. The top receivers back Bermudez and Lutz did combine for 39-485-2TDs. They added 2nd Tm All Ivy WR Laboy from Cornell and a couple FBS P5 WRs and TEs to fill in.

The D for Delaware last year was upper 1/3 in the league, but a big notch down from their 2022 D that was #1. They play a 3 man DL and are light, average weight last year of the 3 starters was just 267 lbs. They do return 5 of thier top 6 there, but the guy they lose did account for 16 TFLs and 7 sacks. Lose their #1 tackler at LB, but get 2 of their top 4 back including one who played as a tFr. They play with 3 safeties and 4 of the top 5 there are back. 2 of the top 3 CBs are back plus they return Manning who started in the playoffs as a Fr. So pretty good shape. Arguably lose their 2 biggest impact guys from the front 7, but have 8 starters back on D overall.

Side note, both their kickers combined for 0-4 on 40+ yard FGs last year. There was no named OC last year, so I don't know if that was HC Canty or not. This year they did name their pass game coordinator as OC.

Massey has this line at 14.5. Sagarin is looking like 14. If it were last year I would not lay it vs Bryant, this year, probably. They don't look strong. Bryant actually went 6-0 ATS after their bye last year and played playoff team Garnder Webb close losing by 1 in OT and playoff bubble team Eastern Illinois also losing by 1 in OT. But that was with Levi Eckhaus at QB and a more complete team overall. Delaware opened last year 5-1 ATS as a favorite, but then the injuries really began to set in and they were upset in 2 of their final 3 regular season games. Delaware should get into the 40s and Bryant might not crack 20 I'd guess. Last year Delaware opened with a weak Stony Brook team, won 37-13 as 15.5 pt home fav, what is more impressive was their 232 total yard edge (only scored 3 TDs on 6 RZ trips).

 

[s--k]

Guess who updated their pdf preview this morning! Only missing SWAC, MEAC, NEC and Merrimack and Sacred Heart now! ...and missing Big South / OVC

 

[s--k]

UC Davis WR / everything 2023 Big Sky 2nd Team All Purpose Trent Tompkins out a few weeks with an MCL injury. Doesn't help for sure, Davis skill personnel still looking good.

 

[s--k]

Montana State OL shuffling, they are good enough to do this and their top RB is down, but they are DEEP. Davis did have 40 more carries on the year for a reason, but this RB unit can certainly sub each other. Down starting C, shuffling OL and without top RB may help the under perhaps. I have Under 55.5 bought -121 at Heritage. As an aside, crazy to think this line is up to 11.5 now. I'm not taking New Mexico...and Montana State is a legit national title contender, but that is a huge FCS vs FBS road fav line. Wonder what the highest road fav FCS over FBS was?

All-American center Justus Perkins and running Julius Davis are expected to miss the game due to injury

...Justus Perkins, who suffered a leg injury in fall camp. Scottre Humphrey is listed as the starting running back with Adam Jones behind him. Last year's main starter, Julius Davis, is out due to injury.

edit - search and you will find...this is from 2021 showing DD road FCS favs at FBS:

After some digging at BetLabs, I discovered it has happened 19 times since 2005 (the beginning of the database). I also learned UTEP will not be the largest home FBS underdog against an FCS school. In fact, three FCS teams have actually been double-digit favorites on the road against an FBS school:

• Old Dominion (-14) at Idaho (ODU won 59-38)
• Jacksonville State (-10) at Georgia State (JSU won 32-26)
• Samford (-10) at Georgia State (Samford won 31-21)

All three teams won their games, but only Old Dominion covered (1-1-1 ATS) — which is what really matters. ODU was in its transition year from FCS to FBS. https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf...ad-betting-favorites-against-fbs-schools-utep

 

[s--k]

Daniel Richardson ready to take the reins as Florida A&M starting quarterback

Daniel Richardson wasn't promised anything when he transferred to Florida A&M despite an FBS background.

hbcusports.com

Richardson had a 13-10 TD-INT ratio last year in his one year at FAU. Not sure how I feel about this, kind of thought (from what I read and heard) the back up from last year(s) Muratovic was ready for this. Norfolk isn't the toughest team for sure they will play so maybe Richardson can get it going.

 

[s--k]

Massey is saying Maine -5.5, Sagarin suggest Maine -3.5 with the modest HF advantage

I would probably want 7 to play Colgate and don't think I would want to play Maine at any number. Colgate could win. Perception of a CAA team Maine vs a little weak Patriot team, but Maine is pretty weak themselves and Colgate got a pulse back last year, so can definitely see the Raiders as a live dog here.

Maine's O was hot and cold last year, their D was mostly bad (allowed over 400y 7x). Don't like a lot about Maine here. QB is gone, was a multi-year starter who when he was on, he was pretty good here, 2933-64%-25-13 2023. They bring in Carter Peavy who was pretty good in, 2021, and had the Mercer offense turned over to him last year and honestly, I thought he was horrible - he ruined the Mercer O. Mercer had two of the best WRs in the FCS and their offense was trash and it was because of him. Make no mistake, Mercer was what they were last year because of their defense. So Maine losing Robertson and bringing in Peavy - I think that means they are weaker. Maine had a good tFr RB emerge who led them in rushing, he's gone. Top 2 RBs gone, supposedly no new transfers there. They have a good receiving group, but Peavy has squandered better receiving talent before. The OL isn't what you'd call impressive. Even with some good games they had last year, 2023, as it has been for the last few years now, this Maine O is just mired in the low to mid 20s ppg on average scoring O.

Maine's D has been bad and is actually getting worse. Now they are positioned better to start this year than last in terms of returning experience in the front 7. Twice they allowed 300+ yards rushing (W&M and Hampton in the second to last game). If teams wanted to throw on them, that worked too, they had the #13 out of 15 pass eff D in the CAA. New OC was promoted from within after most recently being the ST coordinator...was offensive positon coach here before that. New DC, was only on staff 1 year prior to that. This coaching staff has never had a season average ppg allowed under 30 or a ypg avg allowed under 400 - hell, Stony Brook went for 479 (7.3) on them! So really, not much to like here with Maine. They were 2-1 ATS last year as a favorite (2 wins vs Long Island and Stony Brook, which you can't get any weaker programs than that - were upset by Hampton for their other fav spot).

Colgate isn't some great team either. But they do have some positive momentum and a lot of players coming back. Colgate had 15 starters back last year and went 6-5. This year they have 14 starters back. It is a team that kind of caught lightening in a bottle, in a Colgate kind of way, last year. They were outgained in 8 of their 11 games, and in 3 of their 6 wins and 5 of their 6 wins they were dogs. They beat Patriot league champion Lafayette in OT...but they were also upset by Bucknell! So that is the kind of team we are dealing with here.

Brescia would be entering year 4 of at least part-time starting assuming he wins the job. Due to injury, Colgate played 3 QBs last year and they all return. Their #2 receiver from 2022 became their #1 last year and earned 1st Tm All Conf, they return their top 3 receivers this year plus their top TE. Had a Fr RB lead the team in rushing and he's back. All 7 OL who started last year return as well including two 2nd Tm All Conf guys. So this is an experienced offense. OC enters 4th year.

The D was poor, allowed 32.6 ppg and 443 ypg, which was last in the Patriot. They did have 21 sacks which was their most since 2019, 21 sacks is double what they had in '22 and '21. 4 of their top 6 DL are back and they only lose 3.5 sacks in the DL guys who depart. 4 of top 6 LBs back including a 2nd Tm Patriot guy. Their pass D was last in league last year. 4 of the top 6 back there for whatever it is worth.

The Maine passing game would have an advantage in this game, but after seeing Peavy play last year, I just can't believe he can get the job done.

This is the first winnable game Colgate has opened with in years, they have been 5-6 TD underdogs to open the season the last 3 years. I think the kind of seaon they had last year, some success, the guys back and a legit winnable game to open this season makes them a live dog here given they aren't playing a strong team on the road. One could say that Maine plays tougher competition in the CAA, but the CAA with is't 16 teams is so watered down now, Colgate played Villanova and Holy Cross and Lafayette and Fordham - those have all been recent playoff teams. The strength of schedule played aren't all that different. Maine played 3 playoff teams last year, Colgate played 2.

Colgate won here in 2021 as a 7.5 road dog in week 2. This Maine coach has lost twice out of four chances at home as a favorite in his two years here. Looks like some Friday night action for me on Colgate if the number is right.

 

[s--k]

Towson either scored or allowed over 30 pts in 8 of their 11 games, sometimes each team topped 30. Cincinnati has opened with an FCS in the first two weeks in each of the last 4 years. Those scores have been 66-13, 63-10, 42-7, 55-20. Towson has a capable offense led by veteran QB, experienced OL and receivers. Not sure they can score a lot, but should chip in something around 14 I would think. Massey is showing the total at 52.5, I see sportsbooks with a 53.5 and 54.5. It helps that Towson's D is one of the worst in the FCS - scoring D 100th out of 122 (32.4 ppg allowed), run D 104 out of 122, total D 113 out of 122. Towson's O should be improved this year (which may not show up much here), but their D should be just as poor as last year. Maryland "only" scored 38 on them after scoring 28 in the 1H (UM missed a FG from the T06 - that possession could've been anohter TD and they missed a longer FG). I would think this game goes Over, history for UC in 3 of 4 of these games says it should.

 

[s--k]

Fan Duel with the first FCS vs FCS lines I have seen:

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/football/ncaa-fcs/north-alabama-@-southeast-missouri-state-33510741

 

[s--k]

After looking at Villanova, really, I think the hype for them is based off of how they played at South Dakota State in the playoffs - which they played SDSU as good as anyone did last year. There was significant wind impacting that game, but they were right there for all of 3Q with them. And the 2024 schedule is pretty easy for a good seed and a likely CAA Title.

But Villanova is not a better team this year than they were last year. QB Watkins does enter his 3rd year starting, but Nova does lose two WRs who have been leading, or in the top 2 or 3 for 3 years. Pringle and Hayek have been a top the receiving charts 3 years and they are gone. The RBs were very active in the passing game as well, and the top 3 RBs are gone. Generally RBs aren't as hard to replace, these 3 did combine for something like 2200 rushing yards and 30 receptions. They do return last year's #3 in catches/ #2 in yards Sanchez who is the big play threat. They return a TE and the depth WRs all of whom caught in the single digits. So having to replace those players doesn't make this offense stronger. They do add NC Central WR Smith who was 1st Tm MEAC last year and 2nd Tm MEAC 2022.

They have to replace both starting guards on the OL, one was 1st Tm CAA and the other was an UDFA in the NFL, but they should be ok there I'd assume.

On the other line, they lose all 3 starters on DL and will look for their good rotational players to step in. Also add a good Wofford DL who has produced for them the last 3 years. The back 7 is in good shape with two All Conference guys back at LB and at DB, perhaps losing their best CB to NC State. 5 starters back on D. I think they will be good, but they aren't necessarily looking to be stronger on paper.

YSU is going to be interesting in how they play this year. It's going to be different. As I said in the offseason thread, YSU loses A LOT! Really underrated good QB gone, lose #1 WR and top TE and on D they lose all 4 starting DL including 6 of their top 8 gone, top 2 LBs, starting NB, 2nd Tm CB and top 3 Safeties - all gone.

I think Davidson would be really hard to replace, so they aren't so much going to replace what he did. He was your 3000 yard pocket passing QB who was mobile, but not a dual threat. They will turn to athletic Beau Brungard at QB now who they used in multiple ways last year - TE, punt returner, change up QB. He's going to be your 50-60% type passer, but one that could run for as many yards as he throws for in the game. This will be unique for YSU after 1.5 years of Davidson's accurate arm leading the way. The OL is going to be strong, 4 starters back, a total of 124 career starts back. They lose half of their 1-2 punch at RB, but return King who topped 1000y and added a transfer from Cincinnati Wright that they expect to share carries right away. Less certain at receiver, I expect less balls to be coming there way this year.

Defense there are major questions for YSU and losing what they did there isn't in any way going to make them better, but the YSU D did let down somewhat often last year - the UNI and the USD losses largetly came down to defensive failures in the closing minutes. The pass D especially got burned in some games vs good passing attacks. I have no idea what to expect here. All told about a dozen guys on D transferred out. That indicates some kind of fracture in the locker room there with that many guys leaving town. Some speculation that a lot of those guys had their plans to transfer before the season was even over (as in contact and agreements with representatives from other teams during the season).

I am not that interested to back a YSU D even though the holes that Villanova has to fill could make it easier for Penguin D to get theri feet under them. I don't think Villanova is going to just pick up where they left off last year. What does make this game interesting is the kind of attack YSU is going to have on O and how Nova will matchup against that. Nova was the CAA's #3 rush D last year thanks to a few really dominant games. They did however allow 157 rush ypg over their final 5. YSU only rushed for 82 on them in last year's playoff game, YSU will likely double that this game.

I'm not expecting this line to end up at 4.5 where Massey has it. Surprised to see Sagaring projecting about the same 4/5 pt Nova fav. Maybe it opens in that neighborhood. The playoff game was 6.5. I would expect the Villanova hype train to move that up pretty quick. This game I might look to play a Nova ML if the line remains low, but if it were to somehow balloon up towards 10, I would certainly look at YSU in that case.

 

[s--k]

Iowa State looks appealing -27.5 hosting North Dakota week 1. ISU is historically a poor ATS team vs FCS, that is however due to a lot of games vs Northern Iowa. Matt Campbell has played 6 FCS schools (a 7th was canceled due to weather) - he is just 2-4 ATS in those. Five were vs UNI, lost SU his first ever game by 5 laying 9.5. Then covered the next year winning by 18 again laying 9.5, won in OT 2019 by 3 as 23 pt fav and only won by 6 in 2021 as a 32.5 pt fav! Last year ISU won by 21 in a line bet way down from over 2 TDs to just 7. 2-3 ATS vs UNI. Some of those UNI teams made the playoffs, some did not. But there is something unique about the instate FCS school playing Iowa or Iowa State.

The other FCS game Campbell's Cyclones have played in was 2022 vs SE Missouri St where they won 42-10 laying 33.5, a non-cover, but pretty good win.

So I partially think that Northern Iowa generally really got up for the ISU games and maybe ISU was kind of going through the motions. It isn't like they can't put the hammer to an inferior team as they did in '22 vs SE Mizzou St.

This year's opponent is North Dakota, who has been in the playoffs the last 2 years - so maybe they are pretty good? No they are not and they have quite a bit of upheaval this year. First off, in their games vs teams with a winning record and/or FBS opponents last year (Boise), UND was outgained by 211y and lost by 24 to Boise, outgained by 199 and lost by 21 to SD State, outgained by 36y and did beat NDSU, outgained by 205y and lost to USD, outgained by 128y in their 1 pt win over ILL St. So even vs the good FCS teams they play, their D yields a lot and their O isn't all that great.

That offense loses their muti-year starting QB. It is either career backups or incoming freshman now. Lose 4 OL, two who transfered post-spring and all 3 who transferred out ended up at Kansas State and Iowa, the other transferred to SDSU - pretty good steps up for those OL and pretty big losses. Their other loss was to graduation. No significant transfers in there, other than a JUCO and a guy who has played 6 games at Dll. This is where you have to be careful with the Phil Steele preview, he says they have 3 starters back, no they have ONE. They have a new OL coach and OC after last year's OC left for a better/bigger job at SDSU. Both those new coaches are from Dll and are bringing in an 'up tempo' O. I've seen those new up tempo offenses when they are new vs superior defenses and it can be bad news with a lot of quick possessions exposing the D to a lot of snaps on the other side. Now, on one hand, that does make it hard to gameplan against - the unknown, the sight-unseen for ISU. I'll have to just trust in Jon Heacock who has proven to be a really good DC through the years.

On the other side for North Dakota, they lose all 3 starters on DL and lose all 4 starters from the secondary. They return 3 of their 4 LBs and have depth, but are lacking production from their outside LBs in terms of pass rush, so they haven't been getting it done there and will look towards

This looks like a particularly strong Iowa State team on paper entering 2024. Very talented with a lot of experience and very deep. Last year when ISU played Northern Iowa in the opener. ISU had a lot of offseason turmoil with some suspensions and had to replace some key pieces on D. ISU really really got after a UNI OL that was also down several starters and made a QB who previously had some NFL hype (Theo Day) throw under pressure all day leading to 49% completions and 2 INTs. I would have to think that this ISU team is going to cause similar problems vs another depleted OL and this time faces a lesser QB. Defensively, in those 5 games I listed that UND played teams with winning records, including Boise, they allowed 414.6 ypg on average with a ypp of 6.5. PPG allowed was just 28 due to some offensive inefficienes. It would be quite a shock if this UND team holds ISU below 40 points. This spread is 27.5

I think ISU's ATS record vs FCS and the fact that UND's recent success makes this seem like a game to pass over at first glace with a high point spread. But given the changes and players lost on UND (only 4 starters back on each side of ball) coupled with the aparent strength of this Iowa State teams makes me want to lay it.

 

[s--k]

Hoping to get at least 14.5 with both Lafayette...

I haven't got into any Patriot League teams yet, but Lafayette is on the radar. Loved that team last year.

Don't think we will be lucky enough to see 14.5. This line is not out yet I don't believe? Massey said 15.5 and Sagarin is saying maybe 4? I think I would take a solid +7.

Only thing that really worries me is that Buffalo has lost to FCS Patriot League teams TWO straight years. And this being the home opener and all with the new staff, they know who they have coming in, 2023 Patriot League Champs! So yeah, Lafayette on my radar, must be firmly centered on everyone's radar in Buffalo too.

Is Buffalo good enough to do anything about it? Holy Cross was really good, but I think everyone was fairly surprised they lost to HC and Fordham. Now it looks like they are at their weakest. They bring in a good HC hire in Pete Lembo but the cupboard looks pretty bare, at least on offense. Interesting that Lembo used to be HC at Lehigh 2001-2005. Lafayette and Lehigh have played 159 times, the most by any teams in college football. Ogbonna has been named their starting QB. He played last year, his most extensive action saw him complete just 4 of 14 passes for 41y with a 1-2 ratio vs Bowling Green. Ran for 214 (4.2) on the year.

I'd be somewhat surprised if Lafayette isn't competitive in this game. Not much going in here that says that Buffalo is all that much better. I expect Buffalo D to be better than their O.

Lafayette was outstanding last year as an underdog; 7-0 ATS with 5 outright upsets - won at Holy Cross and at Princeton and only lost at Delaware by 2 in the playoffs. Delaware was on their 3rd string QB, but Lafayette's QB also got knocked out in the 3rd Q.

QB DeNobile is back this year, RB Curtis is back this year, #1-3 WRs back this year, #2 TE back - lose 2 best OL, but return 3 starters 2 of which are All League types. 8 starters back on O - 8 starters back on D. Lose a good DE, but they have a 1st Tm DT who started as a Fr and won league Fr POY. 4 of top 5 DL back from unit that has allowed just 108 ypg (3.2) and 124 ypg (3.7) rush the last 2 years. 36 sacks last year! They are down 2 of their best LBs, but like the OL they return a couple potential All League guys there. 1st Tm S and 5 of top 6 DBs back overall. A couple pieces missing, but it is essentially very similar to the team they had last year. 3rd year HC who is an alum here and 3rd year OC and DC. Now, the height of last year's success was unexpected. However, this program does have a history of Patriot Titles and playoff appearances going back 10+ years. So one might say "they are back".

 

[carolinablue]

Don't think we will be lucky enough to see 14.5. This line is not out yet I don't believe? Massey said 15.5 and Sagarin is saying maybe 4? I think I would take a solid +7.

Only thing that really worries me is that Buffalo has lost to FCS Patriot League teams TWO straight years. And this being the home opener and all with the new staff, they know who they have coming in, 2023 Patriot League Champs! So yeah, Lafayette on my radar, must be firmly centered on everyone's radar in Buffalo too.

Is Buffalo good enough to do anything about it? Holy Cross was really good, but I think everyone was fairly surprised they lost to HC and Fordham. Now it looks like they are at their weakest. They bring in a good HC hire in Pete Lembo but the cupboard looks pretty bare, at least on offense. Interesting that Lembo used to be HC at Lehigh 2001-2005. Lafayette and Lehigh have played 159 times, the most by any teams in college football. Ogbonna has been named their starting QB. He played last year, his most extensive action saw him complete just 4 of 14 passes for 41y with a 1-2 ratio vs Bowling Green. Ran for 214 (4.2) on the year.

I'd be somewhat surprised if Lafayette isn't competitive in this game. Not much going in here that says that Buffalo is all that much better. I expect Buffalo D to be better than their O.

Lafayette was outstanding last year as an underdog; 7-0 ATS with 5 outright upsets - won at Holy Cross and at Princeton and only lost at Delaware by 2 in the playoffs. Delaware was on their 3rd string QB, but Lafayette's QB also got knocked out in the 3rd Q.

QB DeNobile is back this year, RB Curtis is back this year, #1-3 WRs back this year, #2 TE back - lose 2 best OL, but return 3 starters 2 of which are All League types. 8 starters back on O - 8 starters back on D. Lose a good DE, but they have a 1st Tm DT who started as a Fr and won league Fr POY. 4 of top 5 DL back from unit that has allowed just 108 ypg (3.2) and 124 ypg (3.7) rush the last 2 years. 36 sacks last year! They are down 2 of their best LBs, but like the OL they return a couple potential All League guys there. 1st Tm S and 5 of top 6 DBs back overall. A couple pieces missing, but it is essentially very similar to the team they had last year. 3rd year HC who is an alum here and 3rd year OC and DC. Now, the height of last year's success was unexpected. However, this program does have a history of Patriot Titles and playoff appearances going back 10+ years. So one might say "they are back".

Great insight man! Hoping for 14+ but would play it if I get at least 10. Not as hot about 7 as I probably won’t submit if single digits, similar to how I viewed the SJSU open.

 

[s--k]

Great insight man! Hoping for 14+ but would play it if I get at least 10. Not as hot about 7 as I probably won’t submit if single digits, similar to how I viewed the SJSU open.

Buffalo closed between -5 to -6 2022 vs Holy Cross. That line appears to have opened at 10 at BM and BOL earlier that day and it actually may've been bet up to 12.5 briefly at BOL. That was a week 2 Buffalo team off a 4-8 '21 season and HC was '21 Patriot League Champ and playoff participant. So there are some similarities as Buff was 3-9 last year and obviously now Lafayette is in the HC role.

 

[s--k]

Very very curious to see what Holy Cross is like this year. They open as a projected small road fav at Rhode Island with Massey, Sagarin says URI-1.

Might be some hope for HC on O; while All-Everything Sluka is gone, they did have to start Pesansky twice and he played pretty well. And they get Fuller back at RB who has had a good career. The problem is they lose the #1 WR and it's a big drop off to the rest of the guys back. And the OL has gone from returning 4 OL to 3 OL last year to just 1 this year. New OC from Stony Brook who was previously on Rhode Island staff 2019-22 - who they play week 1!

Holy Cross D is harder to have much optimism about. They have been getting about 3 ppg worse and 50-70 ypg worse the last couple years and now they are suffering significant player losses. Only 5 starters back on D. They kept a LB coach to promote to DC. Merrimack HC is now HC here, not a terrible hire. Transfer portal looks like a one-way door, only players leaving, no Dl additions.

Rhode Island is also replacing their own multi-year starter QB Hill. Hunter Helms out of Clemson competing with last year's back up Farrell who was originally VT. Add a good RB transfer from SHU (Grant has over 3000 career yards). Lose 3 of top 4 at WR, do return a good 6' 4" All CAA guy in Buchanan who had three 100y games last year and looking towards transfers who have some experience at other CAA and NEC schools. OL takes a couple hits after having a good unit last year. OL looks like the weakest unit on the O, the transfers coming in are inexperienced from other small FCS schools.

Just 5 starters back on D. They only return 3 of top 6 to a 3 man DL. Did add Primrose out of SHU as a 2x All NEC player. Starters back at OLB, but need new interior LBs and again it is a smaller school transfer, CCSU Miles who does have 131 career tackles unless depth players can step up. Similarly at DB, they lose 2 of 5 starters. INcluding CAA's ROY who tranferred out to GT. They do return some guys who started here that can step in and generally URI doesn't have a bad pass D no matter who is back or not.

HC back for 11th year, 5 year OC, 2nd year DC.

Suppose I would give HC the edge at QB and RB and probably receiver. OL is tough to say they both would appear to be issues for each team. D overall, would not say I am bullish on either. HC road fav might be justified according to Massey, just looks wrong without Sluka, Dobbs and coach.

Tough game, just have to wait this one out and see what team looks like what going forward.

 

[s--k]

Bowling Green looks like a tougher game for fellow Patriot League team Fordham. Fordham also has a good looking team, but BGSU is stronger that Buffalo, appears much stronger. Massey is projecting the line at BGSU -17.5, maybe still high but closer than where the UB -15.5 pt line will be vs Lafayette I expect. Sagargin looks like BGSU -19.

Fordham is in the middle of 3 consecutive winning seasons in a row with 2022 their high water mark. CJ Montes was simply amazing last year. Those words probably had never been said before he did what he did last year. He passed for 3000 yards 64% with a 26-1 ratio...26 to 1! It is a very QB friendly system, but still - CJ Montes. So good for him. He's back this year. #1 WR gone, a good one, but 4 of the top 5 are back and the starting TE. 1100+ yard and 1st Tm Patriot RB is back. It has been a veteran OL, 4 starters back last year and 3 back this year with multi-year starters and a couple guys with starting experience to plug in. Overall 8 starters are back. Like Holy Cross, Fordham gets no significant or even insignificant Dl transfers.

While the O hasn't been as good as it was under record setting QB Tim DeMorat, the D has actually been improved. They have gotten out of the allowing 30+ ppg, out of the allowing 400+ ypg and gotten those season long averages down to 24.7 ppg and 375 ypg last year. 8 starters are back on D too with 11 of the top 14 tacklers. The DL remains a veteran unit as it was last year. All 4 starters return, 7 of top 8 back with two All Patriot guys. LB James Conway has been making 100+ tackles for 3 years now and will probably do it again this year. Starting NB returns. Did lose a transfer to Northern Ill, 4 of top 6 LBs back. The pass D hasn't been the best. 5 of the top 7 are back there. 7th year HC, 2nd year for both OC and DC. Lose their 1st Tm Kicker (he kicked a career long walk off FG to beat Lehigh last year).

Fordham is more offense oriented whereas Lafayette is more defense oriented. That being what it is, I guess Fordham going vs Bowling Green is better because Fordham can and does play in shootouts. Their win at Buffalo last year as 23 pt dogs was 40-37. Two years ago they lost at Ohio 52-59 (with DeMorat at QB). Two years ago BGSU lost to Eastern Kentucky 57-59 (ot).

What I don't know is how good BGSU is. It sounds like they are poised for a pretty good year. Buffalo I feel pretty good in saying they do not appear to be heading for a good year. If the spread is right, if it is like +17 I could maybe see myself on Fordham. Might feel comfortable at 10 or more. I can take less with Lafayette because I think UB is weaker.

Fordham hosts Lafayette mid season this year. Winner there should win the league unless something crazy happens and be in line for the playoffs.

 

[s--k]

Running down the rest of the Patriot league, already posted some thoughts on Colgate and then Holy Cross, Lafayette and Fordham in the most recent posts above.

A team I am a little high on honestly is Lehigh. They just need to get out of the Army game healthy. The story for the offense is going to be OL. They suffered through injuries early and often last year. At the start of the season they were set to return 5 starting OL from 2022. Their best OL, Center Pedezanin was beginning his 3rd year as a starter and he was OFY game 1. They lost their LT who was entering his second season as a stater in game 2 OFY. Multiyear starter at RT was OFY after 5. As a result, they had to start a Fr for the final 6 games and had to start a Jr who had never seen the field before in the final 7 games. 3 different players started at LT, LG and C with a reserve long snapper starting 2 at C. A total of 10 different OL started last year, 8 of those 10 return this year and they have a total of 107 career starts among them. All 3 OL who were lost for the season due to injury last year return and they are all multiyear starters so so those reserves that were forced into action last year can revert to being reserves again - which is good.

Perri got beat out at QB last year after being 2022's starter (2022-58%-12-9) by a more mobile QB, but that QB Silbor was not as good of a passer (1697-50%-10-11). Silbor is gone, Perri is a 5th year Sr and is back at #1. They do lose their #1 receiver, but he only had 462 yards. #2-#4 WRs are back as is their top TE. They had a Fr RB emerge last year and led with 644y and is ready for larger role this year.

This is not an offense that is going to average 30 ppg, but if they can avg low to mid 20s for the season (something they haven't done since 2017) they can be in and win games vs a lot of teams on their schedule. They finished the season scoring 22.5 over their final 6. That would be a start for them.

So the schedule, let me go there before I go Defense. Army is the opener. But after that they have 3 of 4 at home and play two weak NEC teams, host Princeton and host Bucknell. They should be 3-2 before their bye with a chance at 4-1 depending how good Princeton is. I just think the schedule sets up well for some success and a hungry team that hasn't had it for a while might be a play on team in some of those early games.

Now D, it hasn't been good, but they do return 8 starters adn 13 of top 18 tacklers. They lose a 2nd Tm DT and two part time starters at DE, but have 2 other starters back on the DL and 3 of the top 6. All the starting LBs are back led by 2nd Tm DeNucci. They lose a 7 game starter at SS and a 4 game starter at CB, but the rest of the key players are back in the secondary, 6 who made starts return including a 2nd Tm S in Peltekian.

The staff is in year #2, HC was a Yale OC/QB coach. OC is former Colgate HC who's teams were very up and down - fanbase is unsure of him.

I have not done any reading on the NEC teams, but Wagner and Long Island are poor and Bucknell had a decent bump last season, but Lehigh beat them on the road last year anyway. Get out of Army healthy and look to play on Lehigh is what I'm thinking right now.

Now Bucknell, they won 4 games last year, their most since 2017. Rucker was a revlation at QB and set single season passing record with 2537 yards passing, 62% 21-5 ratio (21 TDs also a record for Bucknell). He's back, but his supporting cast is weaker. Not good for a team like Bucknell. Their #1 receiver transferred out to William & Mary, lost another WR to the portal and their top 2 RBs, the two guys are were #1-#2 the last two years for them, decent backs transferred to Rice and Elon. They do have 4 of top 6 back at receiver. An OL that allowed 37 sacks last year returns 3 starters after having all 5 back last year. Thinking it is going to be a little harder for Rucker and Bucknell's O this year. This O avg 26.1 ppg and 370 ypg last year which was their best in 10 years! They add in a little used Western Michigan WR from the portal. Defensively Bucknell allowed 33.7 ppg and 431 ypg. 6 starters are back there, but they lose all 3 full times starters off the DL - they are better off in the back 7, but they lost a LB and CB to Ohio and Minnesota. Otherwise 5 of top 6 LBs and 4 of top 5 DBs do return. Overall 7 guys transferred out and 6 of those 7 I think are tough to replace for a team like Bucknell. The only portal addition I see on D is a Stanford DB who has played in 6 career games.

Georgetown is another team that had a pretty good year for their standards last year. 5 wins was more than they won 2021 and 2022 combined. And they did it with some pretty solid overall D and an improved offense. They lose their starting QB for the second straight year to the portal. Knoop landed at Stony Brook, so maybe he isn't all that big of a loss. But his legs were big at times and likely made up for some offensive line issues in spots. He did throw 10 INTs thought. An very interesting replacement for him is Danny Lauter who set Georgetown passing records in his one and only start last year when Knoop was out, against Lafayette of all teams. He passed for 458 yards! Don't know much more about him other than that though. If he can be close to that good then maybe they can be ok. Top 6 receivers are back including two 2nd Teamers. RB is a question after they lose a good 2nd Tm veteran who led GT 4 straight years in rushing. Their #2 rusher is a 178 lb guy, not sure he can hold up as the primary RB. The OL only loses 1 starter, but they were really young last year, 4 of the top 9 were Fr and 6 of the top 9 were underclassmen. They allowed 11 sacks in their final 4 games after allowing just 3 in the first 7. You want to get better, not worse. I don't know how good their OL is. With a lesser RB and more of a pocket passer more will be on them to hold up. D is where I am worried for GT. They have 7 starters back, but all 4 guys lost were their 4 best - All Patriot players gone, 2 on DL and 2 DBs. GT's D had been allowing low-to-mid 30s ppg, but they cut that by 11 ppg last year! They actually had the #1 ypg D in the league! I am calling this a fluke as their playmakers in the front line and back end are now gone. The staff does have a lot of consistency at HC, OC and DC. Only significant transfer in was a App St WR who was a legacy there (Corey Sutton's brother).

I am selling Georgetown hard week 1 if they are anything close to a 10.5 pt favorite over Davidson as Massey has it. Davidson is pretty loaded and I can't see the GT D holding up and can't be sure the GT O is good enough to cover DD against them. Sure, last year GT rolled fellow Pioneer League foe Marist. Marist and Davidson are not comparable at all.

Davidson choked their final 2 games of the season costing them the league title and a playoff bid when they were upset as DD favs vs Morehead than Dayton. This year Davidson returns their QBs, and all their best skill players. The OL is down a couple guys but the ones returning are All Conference players. They averaged 308 ypg rushing last year and had the #1 pass eff O as well (69% completions) even though they don't throw it much (20x a game). I think that is going to stress a GT D that has to reload some of their key guys lost. Davidson's D slipped up a little last year, but have 9 starters back this year and can likely improve on that side of the ball. They still had 29 sacks which was their high water mark over the last 5 years and they were the second best 3rd down conversion D in the Pioneer. Davidson got off to a slow start last year in their first 2 games, then started rolling teams as they should be expected to do. And inexplicably dropped their last 2 games. If they can hit the ground running and play like they did in games 3-9 then they can upset GT with all the experience they have back.

 

[M.W.]

Who is the first to post lines for these games?

 

[s--k]

Who is the first to post lines for these games?

Everything would begin Saturday morning between 9:30-10. Then lines would trickle out for hours til about 2-3 pm eastern. Last year I believe Heritage was a little ahead of Bookmaker. I did not have Heritage last year. I think Steponaduck did maybe he can confirm how they did it. So far this year Heritage did not release early for week 0. Actually no offshores released early but week 0 was weird last year too. BM released early enough all season for my liking last year. BOL was next but they would often stop releasing new lines, like pause or freeze the release of more lines. Bovada was same as BOL. I didn’t have MyBookie last year. Think I had heard 2 years ago BOL was earlier than they released last year, as in first.

Everything was Saturday morning and all the offshores were significantly ahead of the domestics. I’m optimistic Fan Duel may release early. I didn’t use them last year. Bet Rivers was pretty good last year among the domestics. DK and MGM were not.

 

[steponaduck]

Heritage and BM were both very quick to release FCS in the morning the day of, just as SK had mentioned.

This year FD and some other USA books have lined up for 90% of the FCS:FBS games.

Lafayette is +4.5 currently

 

[steponaduck]

In fact, it’s the first time in my life I can recall any games involving FCS teams being released earlier than the day of the game, I’ve never seen this before for this market, they also have Villanova -7.5 against Youngstown State

 

[carolinablue]

Heritage and BM were both very quick to release FCS in the morning the day of, just as SK had mentioned.

This year FD and some other USA books have lined up for 90% of the FCS:FBS games.

Lafayette is +4.5 currently

Lafayette was at 6.5 then was taken down and afterwards I saw 4.5.

 

[s--k]

This is going to throw off my schedule if lines are released like this. Might just be because it is first week with so much off season time beforehand

 

[s--k]

YSU - Nova is the only FCS-FCS line I see though

 

[s--k]

Last Saturday morning week 0 one of the online odds trackers showed MyBookie to have numbers for the FCS-FCS games but when I went to their site it still showed the padlock icon in place of the spreads until some time later.

 

[s--k]

Lembo at Buffalo is the x-factor in that game. I think he provides UB with more of a chance than they would otherwise have. Still going to be a difficult game for the Bulls - and from a Lafayette angle, I hate the fact that UB has lost 2 straight years to an FCS. 4.5 is probably too low for even me to take Lafayette

 

[steponaduck]

I think it’s Buffalo or passing this one.

 

[s--k]

Jackson State +7.5 and +235 at FanDuel. They have never beaten an FBS, but if not ULM this year...when?

 

[s--k]

You all probably noticed the big move from +7.5 to +3.5 on Sac State last week. I got some at 7.5 but not as much as I would've liked

 

[s--k]

Central Arkansas has moved from I think it was 13.5, saw the move to 12.5 now it is 10.5 and think somebody, mabye BetRivers was at 9.5. I got burned in this game a couple years ago when Ark State finished 2-10 I think and they still blew UCA out of the water. No knowledge off hand of 2024 Ark State and haven't looked yet. UCA good on paper, but they seem to disappoint and I got gun shy on them.

Anyone have feel for Ark State this year?