Week 5 in the FCS

carolinablue said:
Nothing really jumping out to me so far as I’m not sure where they opened at but no plays for me yet but Drake getting 2.5 at home in what should be pretty much a toss up is tempting. Line is at 105 so will wait and see if it crosses 3 or not. With that said, not sure I want to invest my money in the Bulldogs…
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It went from 2.5 to 3.5 -110 at 8:00 this morning. I played Drake.

Historically San Diego owns them, had won 10 in a row before Drake won on a hailmary last year (25-20 Drake +95 total yards)
 
steponaduck said:
Idaho state could sling it around a bit. Would consider that one for sure
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Line is certainly high. Don't think Idaho State is getting the same kind of QB play with Tracy this year that they did last year with Cooke. Hays isn't likely to have success with his style vs Montana State. Over/Under number of INTs ISU QBs throw could be interesting if they had something like that. Montana State winless ATS this year because they are up so big they pull starters. Idaho State would fit the prototypical mold of a back-door team.
 
About 1 week shy of the 10 year anniversary that Sacred Heart beat Delaware 10-7 Oct 4 2014!

Don't think that happens again. Would lay 30 with Delaware, but do feel a little nervous about their intentions here. Remember they are moving to FBS next year and could be redshirting players in spot games. Have already speculated one of their top OL is redshirting, one of their 3 QBs who started last year is redshirting. Delaware was without Yarns last week and a starting WR Bermudez due to injuries. Some OL were injured too. I fear that they treat this game as a glorified scrimmage, stay healthy, get other guys experience. Week 1, healthy Delaware laying what, like 30 vs Sacred Heart? No problem. As it is now, not that excited about it. Don;'t know how they are handling the CAA games this year (ineligible to win conference title), but CAA opener is on deck.
 
Maine at Albany. Eh...Maine is bad. Albany hasn't figure out how they want to try conduct their offense this year. Can't lay pts with them still figuring it out vs Maine and not sure I will be betting Maine vs anyone this year.

Stony Brook is hot! Freshman QB vs the Morgan D...I don't know if that is good combination. Morgan O vs anyone? Not going to try and figure this one out and moving on.
 
FAMU's game rescheduled.

South is going to get a ton of rain. Here are regions expecting rain Saturday

weather map 9-28-24.jpgNCAA_FCS_map cropped.png
 
s--k said:
It went from 2.5 to 3.5 -110 at 8:00 this morning. I played Drake.

Historically San Diego owns them, had won 10 in a row before Drake won on a hailmary last year (25-20 Drake +95 total yards)
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I was in work meetings all week so my normal routine was nowhere to be found. I see it at 1.5 now so nice job getting the 3.5, well done!
 
s--k said:
I did blind bet Syracuse this morning vs Holy Cross. I have not seen any Syracuse football nor looked at their stats this year so that may not be the smartest on my part. I do remember Cuse having very good success vs FCS teams in years past and I am just assuming Syracuse O is going to be able to do whatever they want on Holy Cross and be a big score game for them. Offensively, HC isn't bad, very inconsistent or efficient, but not bad overall. This is not Sluka led HC O however. They only scored 17 at URI and 20 home vs UNH the first 2 weeks. They did do better vs Bryant, but that is Bryant. I think they have had some pretty taxing games to open the season. Say that battle tests them? I don't know. Yale scores go-ahead TD with :12 left last week. They have the ball in the final minute vs UNH and throw a game sealing INT and then lost vs URI with :19 to go. I don't know if that plays any kind of factor or not, but losing 3 close games like that I don't think helps them here. If anything at 1-3 with their new head coach after normally being good the last several years probably doesn't help them being so close and losing those games that matter. So far this year Patriot League teams have not matched up well vs FBS...Lafayette at Buffalo, Fordham at Bowling Green, Colgate at Akron...well that one was kind of weird. And still, none of those teams are as good as Syracuse and Cuse has the history of pounding these type teams.
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heritage has severely mispriced syracuse team totals. you will not find a more +EV bet all weekend than those. go right down the line and bet every one of those over...they even have a Syracuse team total over 24 -246 that you could place any amount of significant money on and sleep soundly knowing you have a winner there.

Cuse to hang 45+ on a bad holy cross squad. the entire Patriot League is way down this year by comparative standards.
 
steponaduck said:
heritage has severely mispriced syracuse team totals. you will not find a more +EV bet all weekend than those. go right down the line and bet every one of those over...they even have a Syracuse team total over 24 -246 that you could place any amount of significant money on and sleep soundly knowing you have a winner there.

Cuse to hang 45+ on a bad holy cross squad. the entire Patriot League is way down this year by comparative standards.
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Holy shlit ..

24 is only -246??

I might have to dust off my Heritage account.

S--k... Cuse can score some points with McCord.
 
steponaduck said:
heritage has severely mispriced syracuse team totals. you will not find a more +EV bet all weekend than those. go right down the line and bet every one of those over...they even have a Syracuse team total over 24 -246 that you could place any amount of significant money on and sleep soundly knowing you have a winner there.

Cuse to hang 45+ on a bad holy cross squad. the entire Patriot League is way down this year by comparative standards.
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Hello
The line is more than the team total
They should just make the team total 0.5 and use it as a promo
 
sleepy said:
Hello
The line is more than the team total
They should just make the team total 0.5 and use it as a promo
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I see a max of risk $100 on that one but not sure if that is across the board or not as I see that for every single game on my end.
 
carolinablue said:
I see a max of risk $100 on that one but not sure if that is across the board or not as I see that for every single game on my end.
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That's why I'm reluctant to go back there. When they took over all the Greek players, they said no one would be limited. Total lie as my account lasted less than a month before cutting my limits.
 
sleepy said:
That's why I'm reluctant to go back there. When they took over all the Greek players, they said no one would be limited. Total lie as my account lasted less than a month before cutting my limits.
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Yeah similar situation here, totally random as I know guys who haven’t been limited and played just like I did. All I want is consistency but not gonna happen…I added them to the scrap heap along with youwager, bovada, and a few others I can’t even remember right now. Best of luck this weekend man!
 
Here are the ones I’m gonna wait and see what BM opens at…

Delaware
Citadel
Robert Morris
Idaho St
Alcorn St
Monmouth
Princeton
Nova
Grambling
Utah tech
North alabama
Idaho
WIU
 
I'm just getting back to things here tonight. I'm sure I missed the Syracuse total, but will check it out. Did get some more Fan Duel lines when I was out to dinner with friends last night. Missouri State opened -1.5 it is -8.5 now. I ML'd them last night -125 and will try and middle with YSU+ now. YSU has a lot of issues, but Missouri State has proven to be poor favorite of late.

I'll post some stuff tonight. I have this weekend for sure and then next week is all up in the air. Was supposed to be out of town on a prearranged trip, but then hurricane did a number on family condo spot in Florida so might be there next week doing whatever needs done. Not sure. Football this weekend for sure.

Any other weather updates or game reschedules? I'm going to check those first
 
I played some Syracuse team totals, all those numbers are still up. Thank you
 
EL CAPO said:
Top 3 fcs plays this week ?
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I have about 30 already in. Some are the same game, just at different numbers. I do kind of a dollar-cost-average approach. I will have at least 30 more by this time tomorrow on games that lines aren't out and ones I haven't fully analyzed yet. I literally bet all day on Saturday. I never like isolating a favorite or best ones because if I have 30 some bets and I pick out one or two or five - I'm just happy how the whole equation works out whether my top 3 win or my bottom 3 the net result is what I like. But I'd say Cal Poly - Northern Colorado Under was 50.5, now 49.5 would be the one I actually have the most $ on. I think that total should be low 40s. Technically I do have like 2.5x more $ on the Syracuse Team Total, but I can't take any credit for that and as steponaduck said, looks like some wrong numbers
 
Lots of games with rain tomorrow, but not a lot of wind. Here are the ones with rain forecast for the gametime with wind over 10 mph

Houston Christian at Indiana State (Terra Haute) - showers, 70, 10-13 mph
NW State at SEMO (Cape Giradeau) - rain, 69, 14-16 mph
Lindenwood at Eastern Illinois (Charleston) - rain, 70, 12-14 mph
NDSU at Illinois State (Normal) - cloudy, 70, 16-18 mph
Southern Utah at Austin Peay (Clarksville) - showers, 67, 9-11 mph
Charleston Southern at Tennessee St (Nashville) - light rain, 65, 8-11 mph
 
I need to summarize what I said I wanted and what I took and what I'm waiting for

Brown and Over - not lined yet

Marist - not lined yet

Bucknell/Lehigh - unsure I do anything I wrote about taking Bucknell may have cold feet

Syracuse - played at open, line has gone up

Columbia - need small number only, not lined yet

Houston Christian/Indiana State - had weak opinion on HCU may back off due to weather unless generous line sucks me in

Penn - played at open -10.5, line still same, thought it might go up but hasn't

Dartmouth/Merrimack Under - not lined yet

Wofford - played at open +7.5, like it don't love it. It dropped as low as 4.5 and now back at 6.5.

Elon - Said I was passing but I took +3.5 at open just because I thought the line looked nice at home, I actually have no feeling on this game

Robert Morris - not lined yet, need big number

Drake - played at open +2.5 and got a better line about 30 minutes later +3.5, they are favored now

Furman - played, but game is rescheduled

Southern Utah - played at open even though I think I said I wanted more points I was ok with the +1.5, still +1.5. Like them to win. Weather could help their style too

Southern Illinois - played +10.5 line still the same. Envision a lower scoring game with South Dakota winning, but I could've should've waited to see if I could get more points, but I'm impatient sometimes. Also took some Under 47.5

ETSU - said I liked them then I saw the line about 10 pts higher than I wanted! Guess odds have caught up to them! It's come down to 15.5 currently, but still too high to take ETSU so nothing for me

Yale/Cornell Over - not lined yet

NCCU/Norfolk - I said I was passing on this game, but....last week's A&T game might be hard for NCCU to come down from. I haven't played this game and right now I'll say I won't but this is a big flat spot for NCCU. Norfolk also, played the game of their lives, but were not trash talk or rivalry aspect involved for them as it was for NCCU

Bethune-Cookman - played at open +5.5. +7.5 now, will take that too but haven't yet, may ML too

Missouri State - played ML at open (-125) and will take YSU +8.5 now but haven't yet

Illinois State - I took a little +11.5 just because and some Over 51.5. The total went as high as 54.5 but back down to 53.5 because weather doesn't look good

Northern Colorado - played ML at open and Under for reasons seen in post #50.

I have yet to get into or form a bettable opinion on the rest of the games so I need to do that now
 
4 o'clocks

Sac State is playing pretty good I must say. Conklin at QB gives them a much more steady and trustable presence at QB. Their offense has always had good potential, just the turnovers were a black cloud. The D was seen as weak. How do I evaluate wins vs Texas A&M Commerce and Nicholls? Two teams that aren't good and also hard to gauge because of how they play at times. Think I like Northern Arizona if they are getting some decent pts at home, like hopefully a TD. NAU almost beat them last year (lost by 1 as 20 pt dog). I was down on them in the summer and looks like that was a wrong take as their play has been strong. Played much much better than final suggest last week vs UIW. The bigger issue for Sac State D should be through the air and NAU has been producing there with no INTs by the primary QBs Pennington and Flores. Big Sky opener for the new staff, the players have seen some improvement over last year - 2023 they were blown out by Arizona losing by 35 being outgained by 214y. This year lost by just 12 and were outgained by 163y. Last year they LOST to Utah Tech by 14 with a +59 yardage edge, this year they beat them by 28 and were +268y. Last week they did lose to UIW 14-38, but they were in the RZ 3x and got 0 TDs including a 14pt swing when they dropped an open pass in the EZ on 4th down then UIW ripped a 97y TD run next play. NAU was good 47% on 3rd down, but just 2-of-7 on 4th down. The NAU 3rd down D has been pretty outstanding this year, check that Zona went 0-for-10 and UIW went 1-for-9. Good! Northern Arizona might have some upset potential right when people are starting to really like Sac State...because they blew out AM Commerce and Nicholls?

NW State at SEMO line already came out. Was 35.5 sat there for a few days, I assume the drop to 33.5 is due to weather. Very hard to put real monty on NW State and I will not do so. Don't like the situation for SEMO. Off huge rivalry game and have another instate conference game on deck. Likely a get out of this game healthy type game and the players likely won't be very up for it.

Gardner Webb has been putting it togehter. Understandable slow start to their season, but credit to the staff and players what they've done. Their 7 pt game vs JMU and their should've been an upset win, but was a 1 pt loss at Charlotte (GW led 20-6 in 3Q lost game on failed 2pt conv) - those games showed a lot of growth by their team. And then they took it to a bad team last week beating Presbyterian 42-21 on the road. Looks like Tennessee Tech still has very little O. They had two nice drives of 60+y to open last week, but then never had any drive go longer than 39y the rest of the game. Under 50% passing and don't like Potts at QB who had a career game week 1, but looked more like his 2023 self last week. They like to run the ball, but GW run D has been pretty good. Probalby would like Under here although I suspect it is going to be in the mid/upper 40s and I would want a better number. Tenn Tech had a 54.5 pt total last week and they combined for 38 and that was with one defensive score for each team! Last year these two combined for about 460 total yards, but GW won 35-0 (2 pick-sixes and another short field TD)! That is how bad the Tenn Tech O was last year. Think with Bobby Wilder as HC this year he will have them playing better. GW is of course a vastly different team, Tenn Tech mostly the same. Gardner Webb wins this game and I lean with them if it is a good line (less than 7). This is their first game back home since week 1. Edit - actually I see this game is already out. Not sure what it opened at, I see GW -4.5 and 58.5. Weather should be nice in Boiling Springs. That total looks high and GW -4.5 seems good if Tenn Tech O is going to play like they did last week.
 
6 o'clocks - assuming I have these times right I will have to check for any changes

Respect the opinion on FAU. I'm certainly not taking Wagner here, but don't have the feeling necessary for me to take FAU and I passed on it at the 27.5. It's several pts higher now. Once we're past week 2 really I don't like the FCS vs FBS games unless it just jumps out to me. Like Syracuse did this week. Normally Wagner would not score many points at all here and Florida Altantic just does what they want. Wagner is a little better this year. Just a pass for me.

Portland State at Chattanooga! They better be pumping the water off that field huh?! This is another pass. Can't back Portland State in most games and am very uncertain about the condition of UTC right now. I liked them quite a bit a couple weeks back vs Georgia State and they competed there, weren't better or close to winning, but I thought they showed well for themselves. Then they got humbled pretty good by Mercer at home, then a bye. So I have lost touch with what they are like right now and I really don't want to lay near DD with a team I am unsure of like this. Portland State? Who knows with them....suppose if I hadn't seen all their games and just take a guess at this one in August I would maybe like them +9.5. But after actually watching them play, well no. Now, one could argue perhaps that this is the weakest team Portland State has played depending on how one values Weber. UTC and Weber are actually close in my mind, maybe slight edge UTC and the game vs Weber might've looked close for a bit but it really wasn't and it really wasn't at the end. UTC should win and I guess cover, but it's not for me.

I like South Carolina State. 1) A&T is off a big blowout loss in a game they care about vs NCCU, just got their asses kicked all night 2) their QB White got hurt, don't know status right now, not sure it matters really 3) A&T almost lost to Winston Salem, like legitimately they were trailing before a FG to tie with :01 and then they won in OT 4) two non-offensive TDs make their scoring output look better than it actually is (13 on Delaware but one TD was a 70y pick-six) (24 on NCCU but the 1H TD was KO ret score and they only had 12 at HT). Just do not like this A&T O (avg 295.5 ypg the last two weeks), poor passing game and the D, I think their HC was a respected DC maybe from W&M...they have given up over 500y in every Dl game this year. NCCU gained 8.3 ypp on them, Delaware 6.6, Wake 7.5. Now, I must admit, I have not actually watched more than a couple minutes of South Carolina State football this year. There's a new sheriff in town there, Chenis Berry who replaces a legend in Buddy Pugh, but sometimes legends get old and need to retire. Berry is a respected HC from Benedict. And they hit the ground running. Week 1 for them, week 2 for FAMU and they led 18-7 before losing 18-22. Beat The Citadel 23-20 with a +146 yardage edge for their first win. And then last game, really vs Georgia Southern, they weren't bad. SC State had two good drives for missed FGs, moved it good, but trailed 7-21 HT. 2H GaSo had a pick-six and scored in the final minutes to make the final 14-42...SC State ws only outgained by 33y. They should have better rushing O this week and the passing game has been pretty decent. First pick of the year was last week. Pheonix was formerly at Benedict with Berry. Think this could be a surprising team this year in the MEAC. Home opener after a bye week. Sign me up! They did open as small dogs, are short favorites now

When will Villanova play a good game? Here are their first halves this year 17, 7, 7, 0 vs YSU, Colgate, Towson and Maryland. They scored 20-21 twice in the 2H this year, but only scored 7 on YSU and 7 on Towson in the 2H of those. Just not clicking the way it should and really by now, week 5 it should've come together. Maybe this is the week? I won't know til after it is over because I'm not laying it. I believe this line might've been 28.5 at open? Now 24.5. Maybe if it got under 20 I bite. Long Island is another improved NEC team as evidence showed last week vs URI and showed week 1. And they lost by 3 to Lehigh, no sin there. LIU isn't a bad team right now...but knowing Villanova's potential....I don't want to be on LIU because if and when it finally does click, Nova may explode. Pass as it is

William & Mary is good, but just aren't quite hitting on all cylinders and some little things here or there keep their final scores, their margin of victories being a little closer than they probably should vs Wofford and Furman. Wofford is better this year, Furman is down, but not awful. So those weren't complete pushovers like VMI showed to be week 1. W&M did not matchup well vs Coastal Carolina. I actually don't know how to access what Hampton is going to play like vs a good CAA team because they've only played MEAC and Dlls so far which they have looked good at times and not so good at other times. W&M has yet to face much of a threat from really good running QB and that is what Hampton has, two good running QBs who aren't bad passing sometimes. You know, I thought I was going to want W&M here, but thinking about it now, I really am not sure what to expect or what will happen here. I think W&M has played at times better than their final scores suggest, but maybe they just aren't that kind of team that can avoid those types of things that keeps the other teams in the games when they shouldn't be. And if that is the case Hampton could be live. I wouldn't think that Hampton's D is up for this. A lot of different things could happen here. I should pass on it.

I would worry a little bit about the Tennessee State psyche. TSU off the TTU game which has to be pretty disappointing to them. I liked them in that game. TSU has been up pretty good in two other games vs weak teams but allowed some late scores and actually failed to cover them. I have them 0-3-1 ATS. TSU led 38-7 vs Miss Valley, won 41-21. They led Pine Bluff 38-14, won 41-28. They only trailed Tenn Tech 14-17 with a minute to go and the ball in their hands when they threw a pick-six and lost by 10. Could make as case if this team plays better down the stretch or handles their leads better they could be 3-0-1 ATS instead. But they aren't. Last week was a tough loss no doubt. Had some big run D problems last week vs TTU. So TTU is better than them. TSU likes to take advantage of teams that are worse than them. Charleston Southern lost to The Citadel, were shutout and lost by 38 at Richmond, but were able to beat Furman as they were +4 in the TO category. How about 131 total yards (2.6) vs Richmond and 257 total yards (4.1) at Furman! Their passing game was pretty good vs The Citadel but they haven't been able to run vs anybody. That should help TSU's run D situation. CSO beat them last year as 7.5 pt home dogs, thanks to +3 TOs. This number is not out yet, I would lean Tennessee State but require further evaluation.

UT Martin might be in trouble. They had that OT loss to SEMO a couple weeks back, then they came out ho-hum trailed at HT to UNA before righting the ship in the 2H after benching Dent. Last week they trailed Missouri State 14-31 with Sheron at QB and lost 24-31 with a bunch of their yards and pts coming on the final couple drives. UT Martin is one of the teams I feel I have the least familiarity with. And Kennesaw is a total unknown to me. This is a game I shouldn;'t get involved with.

Montana State is -17.5 now, this line came down right? Was it 19.5? Everyone knows they have yet to cover this year. The only game they played all their #1s who were healthy a full game was week 0 when they needed them all for that comeback. Can't take them just because they have to cover one of these games as we all know that is not a good recipe for selecting plays. I don't know here. I might lean towards Montana State. First Big Sky game, maybe they actually do play all their guys a full game here. Idaho State hasn't felt quite as good as this season has wore on this year compared to last year...not like they were good last year, but they had some good moments. Last week was their best showing start to finish probably. I do tend to believe that Southern Utah was still thinking back to their loss the week before and likely didn't have a good week of practice and came out flat (trailed 7-24 HT as a 3.5 pt road fav). I fear that ISU can and often does get way behind in these games. Like they trailed at North Dakota by 31 1H. They trailed Weber and EWU by 21 each at HT last year (they won the EWU game). Now, if Montana State were to be up late and covering, Idaho State is going to keep coming and trying to score til the very very end so back door is always open with them. Actually, I think I would prefer to have Montana State at a lower number than Idaho State at the current number. I don't have the same opinion of this offense 2024 as I did for the 2023 group who I thought was more potent. So I'll wait and see if the line does anything and see where I end up on it.

I'll have to sleep on the 7:00 - and later games
 
Narrowed down my list a bit as I wait for BM openers and more to come out at FD…

Yale and Central are both on my potential list but hoping BM comes out a little lighter on both

Took off UNA and WIU as I don’t trust euther

Considering the total in the Illinois St game as that one could be more competitive than some may think

Also considering Nova, Monmouth, Delaware, Yale, Central and Grambling depending on the BM opens

Debating ML on Idaho but that one may be a toss up

Bethune Idaho St and Lamar are tempting dogs but need more points before committing
 
Yeah, Idaho is tough. UC Davis has some issues. Based on what I have seen to date, Idaho is the superior team...I just worry if the Idaho offense with their backup QB (who's only played 1 year of high school before this year), is the Vandal offense good enough vs a solid D? Like picture that Idaho offense from Wyoming coming in here. That going to get it done? I can see either team winning the game, but Idaho should win. Almost certainly close (unless turnovers) and almost certainly low scoring.
 
Find it odd that Heritage takes down their FCS games and then will put them back up today. They had most of the same ones that Fan Duel has had, but they had them among the regular college football listings.

Columbia at 7.5 isn't interest to me
 
Robert Morris at 21.5 is what I was hoping for. Also Brown +9.5 and Over 53.5 look good
 
every week I suck my Fan Duel balance down waiting for the offshores to catch up. Heritage has their FCS section up with two games now
 
s--k said:
every week I suck my Fan Duel balance down waiting for the offshores to catch up. Heritage has their FCS section up with two games now
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Yeah I wish BM would get in the game earlier as I have plenty of cash in there but they are so behind FD these days both in FBS and FCS
 
Weird, the one FCS line that Bet Rivers had this morning was Delaware -31.5 and that was one of the ones that Heritage had up but then took down also at 31.5 and FD released 24.5? It is fun to follow the numbers
 
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