NBA Playoff Plays (First Round)...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Regular season: 71-51 (+22.01)

Playoffs finally here.

Looking at a couple of plays for Saturday.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors (Game One)

The play...

Warriors -11.5 (3 units)

Like the Dubs to give AD and the Pels a nasty welcome to the playoffs first up. 'Deer in headlights' game.

:shake:
 
Thanks fellas.

1 seeds are 10-2 ATS when favored by 10 or more vs 8 seeds in Game 1 of the playoffs since 2004.
 
Hope you have first two months of the playoffs the same way you had the first two months of the regular season :) !
 
Split yesterday.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (Game One)

The play...

Spurs +1.5 (2 units)

:shake:
 
adding...

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks (Game One)

The play...

Hawks -10.5 (2 units)

:shake:
 
Thanks fellas.

Round 1 Game 1 is always the figure out type game. Spurs have won 11 straight Game 1's (34-20 SU overall in Game 1, 10-2 overall series record in the Prelim Round) and if they hit previous playoff form the Clips are screwed, LAC bench also give SA some room for error given the discrepancy between both squad's pine-riders.

The gap between the Hawks and Nets is the most lopsided in the opening round matchups, had to bite. Crooklyn is the only team in the playoffs with negative key numbers. Hawks coached by Pops 2.0.

Either way it sets up the next game should both shit the bed.
 
Worth noting that the Game 1 spread in the Clips v Spurs series is the lowest spread ever for a 3-seed playing a 6-seed in the 7-game format.

Homer refs is concerning though.
 
Going through the motions, will take a few losses early. Bounce-back factor always there in the playoffs.

Hawks tried to please the crowd a little too hard in the last 10 minutes. Korver playing like he had to launch a 3 every time he got the ball. Dumb but forgivable given the occasion for Atlanta. They should be extra focused in Game 2.

Go Spurs, go !
 
Doc also showed how he rates his bench by leaving his starters in up 15 with 3 mins left. Would not be concerned just yet if I were a Spurs fan/future holder.
 
emkee said:
Doc also showed how he rates his bench by leaving his starters in up 15 with 3 mins left. Would not be concerned just yet if I were a Spurs fan/future holder.
Click to expand...

True but also game 2 isnt until wednesday.. plenty of time to rest...
 
Calimike02 said:
while I can agree on the duncan retiring angle, I cannot in any way see the Spurs winning a title this year. They won last year due to cramps.
Click to expand...

Agree aside from the cramps thing. Not one team in the NBA would have beaten the Spurs in last season's Finals. IMO, the fact the starters had to play every game leading in, on the quest for the 2nd seed this season is gonna cost them. Pops had the luxury of handing out rest the past few years. Spurs will be victims of their slow start.

Griffen got rest (due to injury), Crawford as well. CP3 had his healthiest season ever. That keeps the LAC bench out of the game, at least for this series. Whether the Clips have the mental fortitude is another story.
 
Have to play this, more favorable spread plays going off on Wednesday.

Beware - Chalk.

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors (Game Two)

The play...

Raptors ML -200 (4 to win 2)

Auto for me in this spot. Will play the percentages.

ML raises the predicted win percentage to 85.1% as opposed to 58.7% for a spread play via the 'numbers'.

Wiz did win both road games last postseason though.

Parlay with the over or with a teased-down Cavs (laying 7 or less) if not keen on laying the chalk. Latter being the stronger of the two.

:shake:
 
Agree w/ the play Emkee, and the manner in which youbplayed it (ML over pts). I played Craptors 1st qtr as that's a close auto play for me. Very similar to playing teams coming home down 0-2. Divol - what is the reasoning behind putting a restriction of .5 to 1 pt on the situational analysis? Good thread for those nee to betting sports. To win in the long run, you not only have to pick winners, but u need to understand the math w/ regards on "how" to place the bet. Another lesson from CTG University.

GLTA
 
Bad call on my part. Raps the squarest play on the board by far. Smh made the 'smart' play.

Raps just gutless. Got some work to do now.
 
Scufflin'. Better doing it early than late I guess.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (Game 2)

The play...

Clippers ML -125 (3 units)

Thoughts in a bit...

:shake:
 
Re-watched last two Spurs games and they're playing fatigued. Clips with the opportunity to go along way to exorcising past playoff demons if they win tonight. Spurs previous success in the playoffs off a loss has mainly come at home which includes their championship years of 2003, 2005 and 2007 - all titles won when losing their very 1st postseason game (at home with the 2nd game being at home). Playing off a road loss in the playoffs, the Spurs are 5-14 SU in the 'Duncan Era', meanwhile teams off a Game 1 win at home are 55-14 SU in Game 2. Home faves off a 10+ point win are 14-3 SU in Game 2 (including the Grizz tonight). Sets up a nice Game 3 play as well if it hits.
 
2-5 (-6.35)

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers

The play...

Trail Blazers ML -149 (3 units)

:shake:
 
Going through the motions in the 1st round after a bunch of bad reads. Hit a big unposted play on the Spurs last night. Round 2 is the 'Money Round', imo, shit is more settled.

Blazers in a good spot, percentages say ML over spread.

Hearing Udrih is ? and Affalo, Caveman suiting up.
 
Whole 1st round has been awkward, Braves.

Refs and the Clips inability to close big games the two key factors for me. Counting on Danny Green to step up, dude is also somewhat key.
 
Thanks BJ.

Always tend to ride the better points differential to break through in a tied series. Spurs ahead by 7 in that department.
 
late add...

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks

The play...

Hawks -8.5 (2 units)

'Circle the Wagons' game for the Hawks.

:shake:
 
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