1* Winnipeg +6.5 -115
I’ll put down some thoughts later if anyone is interested.
Ok brief thoughts on this one. Much like the BC/HAM game I just think this line is inflated. I made it 3.5 so I think there is some value on the dog.
This game is hugely important to both teams. Edmonton currently sits third in the west, a game behind Sask who gets to play the 'free-space' Alouettes on Sunday so they need to keep pace to have any hope of landing a home playoff date. For the bombers, a loss here would all but eliminate them from the west playoffs as they sit in 5th behind BC who has a game in hand and Edmonton who would win the season series tie-breaker with the win. The Bombers only hope after that would be a crossover spot and no crossover team has ever made it to the Grey Cup. So I expect a playoff atmosphere here and a close, hard fought game by both teams.
The risk with Winnipeg is that they looked so lost for 4 straight games and only just turned it around last week against Montreal. But I am trusting that that win restored Nichols confidence and he is ready to ball. Also Montreal's defence has gotten fairly stout as of late and the same can't be said for Edmonton. Its been an average at best defence for most of the year, even when healthy. Probably their biggest weakness is defending the run and for that the Bombers have Andrew Harris back after missing most of last week's game. Reports from practice this week say he is 100% and ready to go. He also just got passed for the league rushing lead by William Powell and although I doubt he would admit it publicly, I think that means something for him. Look for him to have a big game vs the Esks porous rush defence.
I waited and lost a bit of line value because there were question marks araound a number of players this week. Coach O'Shea likes to play games I am learning and gives a lot of vets 'maintenance day's during the week without always admitting so. Reporters report and it creates a lot of uncertainty. This week the status of Brandon Alexander, Kevin Fogg, Adam Bighill and Nick Demski were all clouded like this. As of today, all are playing which makes this pretty much a 100% healthy squad.
Finally, Ill add that Edmonton is often overvalued after labour day. Contrary to popular thought, they really don't have a strong home field advantage. Since 2004, they are 12-19 ATS at home in the month of September, the caveat being that a number of those games would be the back end of the labour day home-and-home against the Stamps and the Stamp own that series.
