Hulu's CFL 2018
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#3DownNation
Results after Semi-Finals
Sides 25-22 +7.175*
Totals 25-14-1 +7.865*
2H plays 9-7 +1.08*
Live Plays 1-1 +0.225*
Teaser/Parlay 5-4 +0.29*
Overall 65-48-1 +16.635*
3-2 for a tiny profit in the semi-finals. Can't believe the Lions just completely failed to show up. So many of those guys had so much to play for and they just never got off the bus. I should probably never have gotten involved with that game at all.
This week is tough. I have a couple ideas but waiting to see how the week plays out.
Sides 25-22 +7.175*
Totals 25-14-1 +7.865*
2H plays 9-7 +1.08*
Live Plays 1-1 +0.225*
Teaser/Parlay 5-4 +0.29*
Overall 65-48-1 +16.635*
3-2 for a tiny profit in the semi-finals. Can't believe the Lions just completely failed to show up. So many of those guys had so much to play for and they just never got off the bus. I should probably never have gotten involved with that game at all.
This week is tough. I have a couple ideas but waiting to see how the week plays out.
Hulu
#3DownNation
1.5* Calgary -4.5 -110
Backed Winnipeg last week but I want to fade them here. Its pretty tough to get to the Grey Cup from third place, having to win twice on the road to get there. The Bombers come off a big win in Sask but was it really that impressive? They won by 5 against a team that had one of the worst offenses all year, and hobbled even further without their starting QB. Sure they triumphed against the #1 or 2 defence in the league in a tough road stadium but now they have to go up against the other #1 or 2 defence in the single toughest place to play in the whole league. And the stamps won't be missing their QB. Bo Levi has my vote for league MVP this year because of the way he continued to get Ws even as his offense crumbled around him due to injury. But now they are getting healthy as Devaris Daniels returns and Marken Michel is even a possibility (at practice today). They have an embarrassment of riches at receiver now, the toughest part is figuring out how to juggle the ratio but that is a good problem to have. The stamps defence is now mostly healthy too and the bye week gave them some much needed rest. I think the Devonte Claybrooks is arguably the best DC in the league now and he has had extra time to see what Winnipeg is doing with their trick packages with Streveler at QB and will figure out a way to stop them. Finally, I like that for the first time in a few years, the Stamps actually had to play meaningful football right to the last week of the season to secure first place. Theres something to be said for adversity making a team stronger and I hate backing teams that have been coasting for weeks so I am pleased that they've had to play hard to the end.
eta...upping this by a half unit. The more I cap, the more I see lining up for Calgary here. Will likely be on the moneyline in a parlay too
Backed Winnipeg last week but I want to fade them here. Its pretty tough to get to the Grey Cup from third place, having to win twice on the road to get there. The Bombers come off a big win in Sask but was it really that impressive? They won by 5 against a team that had one of the worst offenses all year, and hobbled even further without their starting QB. Sure they triumphed against the #1 or 2 defence in the league in a tough road stadium but now they have to go up against the other #1 or 2 defence in the single toughest place to play in the whole league. And the stamps won't be missing their QB. Bo Levi has my vote for league MVP this year because of the way he continued to get Ws even as his offense crumbled around him due to injury. But now they are getting healthy as Devaris Daniels returns and Marken Michel is even a possibility (at practice today). They have an embarrassment of riches at receiver now, the toughest part is figuring out how to juggle the ratio but that is a good problem to have. The stamps defence is now mostly healthy too and the bye week gave them some much needed rest. I think the Devonte Claybrooks is arguably the best DC in the league now and he has had extra time to see what Winnipeg is doing with their trick packages with Streveler at QB and will figure out a way to stop them. Finally, I like that for the first time in a few years, the Stamps actually had to play meaningful football right to the last week of the season to secure first place. Theres something to be said for adversity making a team stronger and I hate backing teams that have been coasting for weeks so I am pleased that they've had to play hard to the end.
eta...upping this by a half unit. The more I cap, the more I see lining up for Calgary here. Will likely be on the moneyline in a parlay too
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Hulu
#3DownNation
Nice...looks like decent weather for it. Have to like your Stamps to go all the way. They're getting healthy at the right time.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Thank you sir. Its been a tough back half but I'm glad to be well into the black. You can see the line making getting better in this league. I think the biggest line move I benefitted from all year was 3 points. Previous years have always had a few that moved 5 or 6 points.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Its hard to believe in a league thats had 8 or 9 teams through most of its existence but Winnipeg has not won a playoff game in Calgary since 1965 when they won game 3 (playoffs series were best of 3 back then) on the strength of a 109 yard TD pass by Kenny Ploen in one of the coldest games in CFL history. Windchill was something like -35F.
In player news it looks like Michel and Daniels will not be back and the Stamps will go with an import trio of Rogers, Matthews, Ambles at receiver with Brescasin and Durant round it out. Its looking like Troy Stoudemire will be back and Brandon Smith is finally 100% which brings their secondary back to full strength for the first time in weeks.
For Winnipeg, Adam Bighill, who missed the last quarter of the game in Sask is 100% and will play. Jovan Santos-Knox is a GTD again and my guess is he won't play. Weston Dressler has been limited at practice all week and likely will be in the game as well. He is such an important piece of the Bombers offense.
In player news it looks like Michel and Daniels will not be back and the Stamps will go with an import trio of Rogers, Matthews, Ambles at receiver with Brescasin and Durant round it out. Its looking like Troy Stoudemire will be back and Brandon Smith is finally 100% which brings their secondary back to full strength for the first time in weeks.
For Winnipeg, Adam Bighill, who missed the last quarter of the game in Sask is 100% and will play. Jovan Santos-Knox is a GTD again and my guess is he won't play. Weston Dressler has been limited at practice all week and likely will be in the game as well. He is such an important piece of the Bombers offense.
Hulu
#3DownNation
0.5* WPG / CAL under 53.5 -109
Gonna take a small shot with the under here. This is basically what the number was both times theser teams met in the regular season with one going over and one going under. But recently these teams have been going under pretty consistently with the Stamps going under 4 of the last 5 and Winnipeg 5 of the last 7. Add in some weather today, 60% chance of rain and some wind (20km/h gusting to 40) and I think the under has a solid chance of coming in. The number has climbed a point from open so I think there's value here.
Gonna take a small shot with the under here. This is basically what the number was both times theser teams met in the regular season with one going over and one going under. But recently these teams have been going under pretty consistently with the Stamps going under 4 of the last 5 and Winnipeg 5 of the last 7. Add in some weather today, 60% chance of rain and some wind (20km/h gusting to 40) and I think the under has a solid chance of coming in. The number has climbed a point from open so I think there's value here.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Jovan Santos-Knox confirmed out for the Bumblers. Ian Wild will sub, same as last week.
Also, Kenbrell Thompkins has been benched in favour of Ryan Lankford. A downgrade at receiver in order to bring on kick returner Charles Nelson in a bid to improve the Bombers starting field position. Interesting move.
Also, Kenbrell Thompkins has been benched in favour of Ryan Lankford. A downgrade at receiver in order to bring on kick returner Charles Nelson in a bid to improve the Bombers starting field position. Interesting move.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Wow Johnathan Rose goes apeshit crazy and two-hand pushes an official over the pile. Gone for the game and I would think suspended for the Grey Cup possibly.
Also, big fuckup again by June Jones not taking his timeout when they had 12w seconds on the clock. It worked out but thats the 4th big clock management mistake he's made this year.
Also, big fuckup again by June Jones not taking his timeout when they had 12w seconds on the clock. It worked out but thats the 4th big clock management mistake he's made this year.
norwesterner
Pretty much a regular
Great insight recently in here as always. Should we perhaps be playing overs with so many loose yards and penalties keeping drives alive? Seems like it takes more for a game to go under. Had under with BC/Ham last week and ball was flying all over. Also had under in Ottawa today.
54 wasn't much higher than a few NFL games out there. Almost feel like totals haven't tightened/adjusted as the lines have. Need good defenses to roll with an under.
I agree with under in Calgary. I am curious to see skinny Bo Levi today. He's smaller and in better shape, but this game might tightwn
54 wasn't much higher than a few NFL games out there. Almost feel like totals haven't tightened/adjusted as the lines have. Need good defenses to roll with an under.
I agree with under in Calgary. I am curious to see skinny Bo Levi today. He's smaller and in better shape, but this game might tightwn
Hulu
#3DownNation
I keep thinking overs are going to be the play but then unders hit at almost 56% this season, just like last year.
With the CFL adding an 8th official who can only call RTP, one would think that would help scoring. It kept one drive alive in the east final. I really hope they don't continue this next year. The last thing this league needs is more penalties.
With the CFL adding an 8th official who can only call RTP, one would think that would help scoring. It kept one drive alive in the east final. I really hope they don't continue this next year. The last thing this league needs is more penalties.
norwesterner
Pretty much a regular
That was a strange call in the east final, but it happens quite fast and they're trying to protect QBs. Great point about the 56 pct unders. It's fun to watch 12 guys protect space so soundly to keep games under.
Good luck out there.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results after Division Finals
Sides 26-22 +8.675*
Totals 26-14-1 +8.365*
2H plays 9-7 +1.08*
Live Plays 2-1 +0.475*
Teaser/Parlay 5-4 +0.29*
Overall 68-48-1 +18.885*
3-0 this week and amazingly have climbed back within striking distance of my season high in units from back in week 9. One game to go. Calgary should be favoured, probably by 2 or 3. Total somewhere around 52. There might be some props to play.
Sides 26-22 +8.675*
Totals 26-14-1 +8.365*
2H plays 9-7 +1.08*
Live Plays 2-1 +0.475*
Teaser/Parlay 5-4 +0.29*
Overall 68-48-1 +18.885*
3-0 this week and amazingly have climbed back within striking distance of my season high in units from back in week 9. One game to go. Calgary should be favoured, probably by 2 or 3. Total somewhere around 52. There might be some props to play.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Books pulled a fast one on me and opened the Grey Cup line last night when I wasn't looking. Opened at -6.5 and 55. I would've hit Ottawa plus the points in a heartbeat.
As it is, its 4 and total is 52.5 to 54 depending on the book. I'll have to think about this one a bit but off the hop the under looks good. I made it 52.
As it is, its 4 and total is 52.5 to 54 depending on the book. I'll have to think about this one a bit but off the hop the under looks good. I made it 52.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I added Calgary in a parlay with some NFL moneylines I like. The way I cap this game, I made the number 3.5 so there may be slight value on Ottawa. On the other hand I like the way Calgary has had to fight to get here and I think they are laser focused to get the win after losing the past 2 cups. Not to mention this may be their last hurrah as Bo Peep is exploring NFL opportunities next year as is Alex Singleton. This could be a very different looking Calgary team next season so they know this may be their last shot to win it all for a while. So I can't take anything ATS here but I really think Calgary wins it.
I will be looking at the 1Q under as well as any player props that come up. This is pretty much the only CFL game all year where books put up player props.
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#3DownNation
Interesting couple of days for the Stamps...yesterday their practice bus failed to show up, leaving them scrambling to find an alternate. Then they get sanctioned by the league for covering player numbers at practice which is a violation of league rules. Then this morning a group of players got stuck in an elevator at the hotel and had to be rescued.
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#3DownNation
Calgary receiver Eric Rogers...
"Probably have to stutter your steps a little more, get your feet underneath you, drop your centre of gravity, lower your hips. Its harder for taller receivers like myself who rely on speed cuts. I might not wear my cleats, I might wear turf shoes. The field is pretty bad to be honest with you but both teams have to play on it."
"Probably have to stutter your steps a little more, get your feet underneath you, drop your centre of gravity, lower your hips. Its harder for taller receivers like myself who rely on speed cuts. I might not wear my cleats, I might wear turf shoes. The field is pretty bad to be honest with you but both teams have to play on it."
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
Maybe add to the under?
Hulu
#3DownNation
So hard to say as sometimes bad field conditions can hamper defenders more. I am still looking to add 1Q under though, just waiting for Pinny to release a number. I think there will be an adjustment period where everyone is getting used to how hard they can cut and QBs have to adjust to different timing.
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#3DownNation
I'm with ya Fab. That INT hurt
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