Hulu's CFL 2018

spottie2935 said:
my week 17 will lean to :

Redblacks 5 units
Argonauts 2 units
Alouettes 1 unit
Roughriders 10 units

I have varying unit sizes based on my data and the lines, but indicated plays and units are posted before any lines.
Click to expand...

I had to take a few days away from football after that disasterous weekend but I'm mostly in agreement with you. I think the RBs are a good bet. Doubt I'll touch the Argos or Alouettes though. And in Sask I think the Eskies are the play but mainly based on the line. I think +3.5 is solid value there
 
Results after Week 16

Sides 18-14 +8.10*
Totals 17-11-1 +3.52*
2H plays 8-6 +1.15*
Live Plays 1-1 +0.225*
Teaser/Parlay 4-3 +0.79*

Overall 48-35-1 +13.785*

Got absolutely eviscerated last week. 2 games I thought would be closely contested, playoff type atmospheres, were instead completely lopsided with BC and Edmonton completely failing to show up. I can't understand how BC managed absolutely no pass rush against Hamilton and let Masoli pass the ball around at will. I also can't understand how Edmonton let Winnipeg completely dominate them in every phase of the game the way they did. Worst week of my season by far.

On to week 17...

1* Ottawa -1.5 -107

1.5* / 0.5* Edmonton +3.5 / ML -115 / +140
 
Last edited:
yea im on the ESKS now

Redblacks 2
Argonauts 2 units
Alouettes 1 unit
ESKS 2 units

ill just list my teams no bets until later on game day

good luck this week hulu
 
I may yet join you on the Alouettes.

I really should’ve bet them last week with sask testing players but I chickened out. Dikenson is known to rest guys but It may be too early for that. The stamps have a playoff spot wrapped up but not the division title so they may not rest anyone yet.

Still though, 12 points is a lot of cushion.
 
Another crap week. Thought I was back on track until a pick six in the final 2 minutes killed my week. I’ll tally up the damage later. Right now I’m getting down on a couple of plays for this week. Thoughts later.

1* Ottawa +3.5 -107
1.5* BC Lions +10.5 -115
 
1* Toronto +8.5 -110

One thing about Trestman is that he never lets his team play without pride, even when they are out of the race. I think starting Franklin again will give this team a boost. He was the heir apparent before MacBeth stepped in and looked flashy for a while. But after having seen them both, I think its safe to say that Franklin is the guy with more upside and he must be itching to get into the game and prove it. The Argos patchwork defence and piss-poor DC are major concerns but I think they can do enough to keep it close.
 
Getting down on the under in Calgary and adding another half unit on BC at a more favourable vig.

Calgary has no receivers right now. Brescasin looks like hes all thats left . Rogers played last week but didn't look himself. He has one of those injuries where he's on the cusp of playing but not quite ready for several weeks and then when he played, you could see it. This week he would play but is questionable as he's left the team to attend the birth of his child. I was a little surprised to see that but I don't think Dikenson cares about this game as Calgary basically has everything sewn up at this point and no one is sweriously challenging them for the division at this point. Marken Michel is also questionable after getting hurt last week. The stamps have been a receiver machine for the past few years but now they are having to dig so deep for talent even they don't have enough. They have several defensive nicks as well but plenty of depth to cover over for them. On the other side, Lulay is back starting for BC and they acquired Tyrell Sutton from Montreal at the deadline which gives them a power rusher to move the ball when the weather gets bad. Lulay is a good QB but plays at a slow pace and BC was a stone cold under team with him starting all year. Theres a chance that the Leos gets big Sol back this week as well which will solidify there already good defence.

I think Calgary's lack of receivers combined with BC's slower paced QB and new running threat add up to a tough slog-it-out type of game on a chilly Alberta evening.

Here's my complete card for week 18. Consolidated for easy fading...

1* Toronto +8.5 -110
1* HAM / TOR over 52.5 -111
1* Ottawa +3.5 -107
2* BC Lions +10.5 -112
1* BC / CAL under 49.5 -108
 
Confirmed that Marken Michel is out this week with a broken shoulder. So thats Kumar Jorden, Davaris Daniels, Reggie Begleton and Michel all confirmed out and Rogers likely out. Calgary basically has one decent receiver left in Brescasin and a bunch of second tier guys, raw rookies and scrubs after that. I am hard pressed to see why I shouldn't be going max 3 units on BC this week as well as a taste of the moneyline also.

Hamilton also having injury trouble. Terrance Tolliver is the latest receiver to hit the 6gm DL. 2018 draft pick Justin Buren will start at WR. Very rare is the guy who can come straight from CIS ball and compete at this level but at least he's been with the team all year. Kevin Palmer will get the start at LT again as he looked like the best guy they've had at that spot all year in his first start last week. Defensively Tracy and Neill are out from the DL again meaning the undersized Nikita Whitlock gets pushed into a starting role again.
 
Ok had to do it...added more on BC ATS and ML. Also upped my Argos bet another half unit. I'm going hard this week. Full card recapped...

1.5* Toronto +8.5 -110
1* HAM / TOR over 52.5 -111
1* Ottawa +3.5 -107
2.5*/0.5* BC Lions +10.5/ML -111/+335
1* BC / CAL under 49.5 -108
 
One more add. I really really hate having a play in every game of the weekend but this line is just out of whack. I lean to Winnipeg to win this game but made the line 2.5. This number is just silly for a game between two teams on 3 game win streaks that will go a long way to deciding playoff positioning in the west so I have to take the points. I think this game comes down to the wire and is decided by a field goal either way. Gimme the 4.5.

Both teams look to be coming into this one fairly healthy and the only question mark there is Weston Dressler who is such a big part of Winnipeg's offense but left practice this week with an undisclosed injury. My guess is he'll likely play but is he 100%? Also, Sask just added a solid piece to their offensive line by trading for veteran Guard Philip Blake who will step in immediately in place of second year man Darius Bladek and immediately improve their already good line.

This should be a really fun game to watch.

1* Saskatchewan +4.5 -110
 
Since 2007...

Dogs after week 14 are 161-127-10 ATS. Thats 55.9%
Road teams after week 14 are 160-134-10. That's 54.4%
Road dogs after week 15 are 120-90-6. That's 57.1%

Pretty strong trends there. The bottom line is nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen in the Crazy Football League so forget home field advantage (its weak in the CFL anyway) and take the points!
 
A couple of changes for the Argos. James Wilder jr is out and Brandon Burks will get the start. I am guessing this is what drove the line up a point this week but it doesn’t concern me at all. Wilder has looked pedestrian all year.

Also former Indianapolis Colts lineman Isiah Cage will get a look at LT. This one slightly concerning but the Argos have been pretty high on this guy all year.
 
Stamps injury update...

Eric Rogers will play but I’m not convinced he’s 100%. Chris Matthews gets his first start at WR replacing Marken Michel. Ambles, Brescasin and Durant round out the starting receivers. Not a stellar group by any stretch.

On defence CBsTroy Stoudermire and Brandon Smith are out, replaced by Patrick Levels and some guy named DaShaun Amos who just signed 8 days ago. He spent last year in the NY Giants training camp but has no other pro experience.

Calgary is super banged up in an almost mean-nothing game for them. I am liking this BC bet more and more.
 
If there's one bet I am re-thinking its Ottawa. It was based on the idea that Ottawa is coming off a disappointing OT loss and going on the road where they tend to play better vs a slumping Edmonton team on a 5 day week. Getting a 3.5 in this situation looked like value.

But since then, its emerged that Ottawa is having to re-arrange their secondary and linebackers due to injuries, while Edmonton gets back 2 very important pieces they've been missing all year. LT Tommie Draheim who was hurt back in week 1 which should really help give Reilly some time. They also get back CB Arjen Colquhoun who was hurt in preseason and may be their best DB.

Its still a bet for now but I am considering buying out if the books make it attractive. I wouldn't recommend following.
 
Well hold the phone...Mike Reilly misses practice today due to illness. Not like he needs it but if he’s not feeling well today, chances are he’s less than 100% tomorrow.

Also Eric Rogers is not yet back in the country so his status is still in doubt for the stumps.
 
Looks like a shitty day in the Peg. Windy and rainy. I leaned under anyway.

0.5* SSK / WPG under 53 -116

I’ll make it a full unit if a better number pops
 
Hulu said:
Looks like a shitty day in the Peg. Windy and rainy. I leaned under anyway.

0.5* SSK / WPG under 53 -116

I’ll make it a full unit if a better number pops
Click to expand...

Found a 53.5 -110 on this so upping to a full unit. Full bet now as follows...

0.5*/0.5* SSK / WPG under 53/53.5 -116/-110
 
Forecast for Winnipeg. I like this kind of wind

Snow ending this afternoon then mainly cloudy. Wind northwest 40 km/h gusting to 60. Temperature steady near plus 1. UV index 2 or low.
Click to expand...
 
Another game that should have been a tightly contested playoff type atmosphere, instead turns into a blowout. One team just completely fails to show up.
 
pb278817 said:
Nice 3rd q for us. Hopefully nothing crazy in the 4th
Click to expand...

Wasn't quite the way I expected but we got the under.

The wind was present but didn't look as bad as I expected. Maybe because IGF is a mostly enclosed stadium. The ones with open ends like Toronto and Hamilton tend to have better wind effects.
 
Results after Week 18

Sides 20-19 +5.66*
Totals 20-11-1 +6.52*
2H plays 9-6 +2.15*
Live Plays 1-1 +0.225*
Teaser/Parlay 4-3 +0.79*

Overall 54-40-1 +15.345*

Not the greatest week but the lagre position on BC saved me. 4-3 and ~3.5 units. Nice going 3-0 on totals too after struggling with those for the past few weeks.

3 more weeks to go in the regular season. Where does the time go?
 
Lines are out at Pinny and there are 2 sides and 2 totals that jump off the board for me. I'm going to try and catch up on news before I drop any money as the lines have been pretty stable at open lately so I think I can afford to wait. With several teams having major injury issues lately, it pays to keep up to date on whos in and whos out.
 
Ok my time is running short and I will be travelling much of the rest of this week so I am firing on these 4. In a couple of cases the number is already moving in my direction so best to get down now if I won't have time to incessantly watch lines all week.

1* EDM / BC under 53 -108 - I made this number 49.5
1* Montreal +5 -110 - Value play. Number should be <3
1* Saskatchewan +9 -110 - Waaaay too many points for a Stamps team in serious injury trouble - May add to this bet as rosters become more clear
1* SSK / CAL under 49.5 -108 - Pretty much a perfect under storm with 2 of the top defenses in the league vs 2 badly slumping offenses. I made it 47.
 
Won't be adding on Sask as I thought. Its becoming clear that they have an injury situation themselves after last game.

On the line, C Dan Clark and G Dariuz Bladek look gone for the year. Recently added Philip Blake will fill in one role and it looks like depth guy Josiah St. John will fill the other spot but that leaves them very thin for linemen.
At receiver, Naaman Roosevelt won't be back until the playoffs although they do get Williams-Lambert back this week to help out a depleted corps.
On defence DL Mi'chael Brooks has been lost for the year and now DB/LB Matt Elam is out for this week. DL Zack Evans was also banged up but is likely to play this week.
 
1* Hamilton pk -107

After fading the cats forever, I think now is the right time to jump on board. Ottawa has multiple defensive starters injured and is having to do some major juggling. Meanwhile Hamilton has found their solution at LT in Kevin Palmer and gets RB Alex Green back this week to ground and pound the RedBlacks defence. The cats have their share of starters out too but the roster has been mostly stable for the past 2 games + bye so I think they have begun to adapt. There's no teling if Terrell Sinkfield gets in the action but I doubt its much, if at all, since he only arrived this week. Once he gets going though, he will be a very capable replacement for some of the speed the cats lost at receiver with the Saunders and Williams injuries.
 
Hulu said:
1* Hamilton pk -107

After fading the cats forever, I think now is the right time to jump on board. Ottawa has multiple defensive starters injured and is having to do some major juggling. Meanwhile Hamilton has found their solution at LT in Kevin Palmer and gets RB Alex Green back this week to ground and pound the RedBlacks defence. The cats have their share of starters out too but the roster has been mostly stable for the past 2 games + bye so I think they have begun to adapt. There's no teling if Terrell Sinkfield gets in the action but I doubt its much, if at all, since he only arrived this week. Once he gets going though, he will be a very capable replacement for some of the speed the cats lost at receiver with the Saunders and Williams injuries.
Click to expand...

Adding a half unit here. The Redblacks might be fielding the weakest roster they have all season. Now DL George Uko is out and it looks like they will start receiver Jacob Scarfone who they just plucked off the cats practice roster a couple weeks ago.

1.5* Hamilton pk -107
 
Also going to take a bite of the cats to win the Grey Cup. I think they have a legitimate shot if they win tomorrow night and this number offers tremendous value.

0.5* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +600
 
Since it’s Hamilton vs Ottawa tonight, here’s a ticket stub from the only cfl game between 2 Canadian teams played outside canada. I believe it was some sort of stadium dispute that caused this game to be moved at the last minute but I’m not sure why Philadelphia.

1539988981352.png
 
Hey Bro, any thoughts on the 'mos or the Lions?

I don't know squat, but I took the under based on head to head trends and both of these guys totals this year...
 
inZane said:
Hey Bro, any thoughts on the 'mos or the Lions?

I don't know squat, but I took the under based on head to head trends and both of these guys totals this year...
Click to expand...

Strong lean to the Leos but didn’t play because I can see the Eskies coming together lately so it’s anyones game.

I do have a unit under 53. BC has been a dead nut under team for weeks and the esks have been trending that way now that their defence is coming together in the late season. I made the number 49.5
 
Results after Week 18

Sides 22-20 +6.055*
Totals 20-13-1 +4.36*
2H plays 9-6 +2.15*
Live Plays 1-1 +0.225*
Teaser/Parlay 4-3 +0.79*

Overall 56-43-1 +13.58*

2-3 -1.765* The latter half of this season has been extremely trying but as long as I stay above 10 units, I will keep soldiering on and stay aggressive. My history with this league tells me that is the right thing to do. Still hoping to be at or above 20 by season's end but I'd better start winning now.

1* Ottawa +4 -110
1* OTT / HAM under 54.5 -108
 
Adding a half unit to both these bets. FOr the side, I was able to get a 4.5 and I really think thats too many points for this type of game. With Hamilton losing Banks for the year, where is their offense going to come from? They only have one decent receiver left in Tasker and as good as he is, Ottawa should have no trouble taking away a single threat. Banks accounted for a full third of the cats offense last week despite going out part way through the second half. For the under, its becoming clear that both teams will be healthier on defense this game with both having multiple defensive starters return. Also, the forecast is looking rather shitty with highs of 6C and patchy rain throughout.

Full card now as follows...

1*/0.5* Ottawa +4 / +4.5 -110 / -110
1*/0.5* OTT / HAM under 54.5 / 54 -108 / -108

Also considering taking a shot with the Ottawa ML and maybe with BC getting 4.5 in Sask but waiting on more info to become clear.
 
Took until the 11th hour but finally got the number I wanted on Calgary...

0.75* / 0.25* Calgary +4 / ML -111 / +151
 
I hate Al Bradbury with the heat of a thousand suns. He should never be allowed to watch a football game let alone officiate one.

Every fucking week this guy just murders the sport
 
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