Hulu's CFL 2018

1.5* Edmonton +3 -107

I made this game pk based on the fact that Edmonton showed they can hang with Calgary, combined with they way they lost. Reilly and Maas both looked extremely pissed post-game and I think they have a chance to exact some revenge on a short week coming home. Add in the number of Stamps who got hurt in this game and I think the Esks may have a solid edge here. Getting 3 is a gift and although I have been wrong on a lot of line movement this season, I can't help but think this one goes down, especially as injury news starts coming out of practice this week.
 
The good news and the reason I like it is Edmonton has won 2 of the last 3 and I just like the way Edmonton can score. At home and getting points is a good enough reason. Calgary only has oner loss are they going to win out ? Edmonton has the offense to beat them. Will they. I'm betting on it, but small

:recliner:
 
My best this week is the Argo's. Yup back on them for the 2nd straight week.

http://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query...auts+and+A+and+line+<=3+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Hamilton has not fared too well in Argo land and I am getting a decent amount of points. Here is a trend that supports the Argo's at home getting points this week. with a higher total the book expect both teams to score. That makes for another exciting game.

http://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query...otal+>48+and+p:points>27&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
 
as +2.5 or more home dogs in this situation the Argo's have won the game 5 of 7 times. and 6-1 ats. If I delete +3 lines its the Argos are undeated ATS when the total is above 48. Win or lose this is my play of the week.
 
Agree totally spottie. I think the Argos are a great play this week, especially with the cats losing Jalen Saunders likely.

I also like the under there. Check out this trend...

http://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query...and+po:team=o:team+and+H&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

So basically when playing the same opponent as last week and the last game went over by >10. O/U is 8-16 in that situation since 2007.

For both bets I’m waiting to see how high the numbers go. A correlated parlay might be icing on the cake there.
 
As for Edmonton, I know that the stamps own the series but the way the Eskies lost last week and seeing their reactions post game makes me feel like they will give 110% here.

As a bonus I still don’t know how the stamps injuries will affect them this week but we saw Kumar Jordan go down, likely for the year, as well as Ciante Evans and Micha Johnson and Rene Parades and Bo all get dinged last game. If even a couple of those guys can’t go or if Bo is <100%, Edmonton getting points has serious value.
 
Updates from stamps first practice...

Jordan is done and may require surgery
Mitchell practicing in a knee brace
Don Jackson is in a walking boot
Micah Johnson appears ok
Ciante Evans not at practice...no word on his status
 
Hulu said:
Agree totally spottie. I think the Argos are a great play this week, especially with the cats losing Jalen Saunders likely.

I also like the under there. Check out this trend...

http://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query?output=default&sdql=p:ou+margin>10+and+po:team=o:team+and+H&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

So basically when playing the same opponent as last week and the last game went over by >10. O/U is 8-16 in that situation since 2007.

For both bets I’m waiting to see how high the numbers go. A correlated parlay might be icing on the cake there.
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cool but most of those were Home Favorites>>>>

http://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query...nd+po:team=o:team+and+HF&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
 
Hulu said:
As for Edmonton, I know that the stamps own the series but the way the Eskies lost last week and seeing their reactions post game makes me feel like they will give 110% here.

As a bonus I still don’t know how the stamps injuries will affect them this week but we saw Kumar Jordan go down, likely for the year, as well as Ciante Evans and Micha Johnson and Rene Parades and Bo all get dinged last game. If even a couple of those guys can’t go or if Bo is <100%, Edmonton getting points has serious value.
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I agree and you have more in depth info I appreciate it!!
 
Marcus Ball might be out for the Argos this week. That defence has so many holes and the DC might be the worst in the league

Duron Carter may see his first game action but not confirmed yet
 
Hulu said:
I'm not sure I would apply this trend here. When you consider how many points the Argos were gifted off Ticat turnovers, I don't know that they would've gotten >20 with just their offense.
Click to expand...

Like I said im not against your thinking. I am on the bench for this bet. Wish you the best
 
I was considering Ottawa this week but never like the spot with an eastern team playing the late-night west coast start. I had always assumed thats a bad spot but looking into the numbers is a bit shocking...

Since 2007...
BC overall at home 50-54 ATS
On Thursday or Friday nights 19-28-3 ATS
On Thu or Fri night vs eastern opp 8-11 ATS

So it seems they have almost no home advantage at all, not even against eastern teams playing at 10 or 10:30pm eastern. Really surprising.
 
I don't often tease the CFL but this one I like.

0.5* Teaser Ottawa +8 / Sask +10

I feel like BC is in a bit of disarray right now. They lost Manny Arcenaux. Chris Rainey won't play is is reportedly being shopped around. While their season isn't officially over, they are last in the west and that kind of move makes me feel like they are dumping salary or starting to build for the future. Ottawa was one of the hottest teams in the league until they ran into the suddenly resurgent Alouettes last week but as we know the RBs turn in a stinker here and there at home and often look better on the road. Even with the Leos off a bye, I just don't think Ottawa gets blown out here. They may not win but they will keep it close.
I think the Bombers are out for revenge and this is the perfect spot for it but I think this will be another close game like last week. Additionally, the Bombers will still likely be without Weston Dressler again (unconfirmed) and he really has been an important slice of their offense. Maybe even more importantly, their backup RT Foketi is out and Jamarcus Hardrick is not yet ready to return so their offensive line will be even more vulnerable than it was last week. Another game I think stays fairly close.
 
Ottawa is always a great bet when they are getting points.

Saskatchewan is trending very well too.

Win or lose I like the play and it has a great chance of winning.

Best wishes Hulu
 
spottie2935 said:
Ottawa is always a great bet when they are getting points.

Saskatchewan is trending very well too.

Win or lose I like the play and it has a great chance of winning.

Best wishes Hulu
Click to expand...


Thanks spottie, always good to know a quality capper is in agreement.

I am still with you on the Argos but still waiting out the line. Its 6 now but I think if I wait it out, I might be able to get a 6.5 tomorrow. After last week, cats and the over will be very public bets so I think the line on both still has room to improve. At least it won't get any worse so I'll look to get down tomorrow.

Lets win some money!
 
Winnipeg not as banged up as first thought. Dressler and Mo Leggat still out but surprisingly, Hardrick returns at RT. I have to wonder if he is 100% or if he is just their best option there right now.

Sask gets DL Brooks back as well as DB Crezdon Butler.
 
Ok I changed my mind and took this now. With news coming out that Duron Carter will play in some capacity, I can see this line possibly going the other direction and I don't want to lose the 6. I'm not sure how much impact Carter will have but the market will likely overreact.

I do feel like Carter is the kind of guy that can go off when he's pissed. Remember his first game at DB when BLM chirped him on twitter and then Duron goes out and makes a pick-six against Bo. I don't know how much time he sees tomorrow but if he's given the chance, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big kick return or reception. Anyway, plenty of other reasons I like this bet also...some discussed above.

1* Toronto +6 -109
 
I should've learned my lesson long ago. This Ottawa team is unbettable because you never know which version is going to show up. They look like world-beaters one game and then incompetent the next.
 
Results after Week 13

Sides 15-12 +5.87*
Totals 16-7-1 +7.31*
2H plays 8-3 +4.46*
Live Plays 1-1 +0.225*
Teaser/Parlay 3-2 +0.805*

Overall 43-25-1 +18.67*

Steered myself into a tiny profit with the 2H bet in Edmonton. Its been a tough few weeks. I have to slow my roll until I get my bearings again.
 
1* Calgary -1 -110

Not often you’ll get Calgary at this bargain price. The cats are playing some good ball right now but they still aren’t playing the mistake-free football you need to beat this juggernaut.
 
These gift free bets on the Alouettes inflated lines are all gone now. BC -3.5 and Moneyline just in case. Its my play of the week
 
spottie2935 said:
These gift free bets on the Alouettes inflated lines are all gone now. BC -3.5 and Moneyline just in case. Its my play of the week
Click to expand...

Yup the bookmakers have caught on.
I actually kind of like the over 49.5 there. Both these teams have been trending under all year but I feel like both can score on each other in this situation and should be able to get over that low number. Still thinking about it though.
 
After further review i have backed out of BC. As I stated before Hulu most often i dont place bets early so i can take the closing line or change my mind. With Jennings possible to start I am not sure I want to increase my bet. I might still be on BC but After the Al's have won 2 in a row and the lines moving against them I am just not clear on either team.

I know you like Calgary, but they scare me right now. I have Calgary actually winning the Grey Cup this year, but at this point. Another sites consensus is 74% on Calgary and I like the way Hamilton is scoring right now. Even if it was Toronto I think Hamilton could put one more game together then be fade able after everyone starts drinking the Hamilton kool-aid. To me this line has everyone confused and I am gonna gamble on the bookies side.

BC Maybe
Ti-Cats 2 units
 
BC has some other issues as well. Cody Husband is out and he was their best offensive lineman. Remember all the trouble they had with shotgun snaps last week? They will likely get that cleared up but their OL will still be weaker. Also they are a bit of a mess at receiver. Devier Posey signed this week and is getting 1st team reps but how much impact will he have with only a couple of practices with this offense.

I am surprised to see Calgary at pk in some shops now. But I've been shocked by line movement all year so no biggie. Hamilton signing both Chad Owens and Maquay McDaniel is a bit odd. I'm not sure either of them has much of an impact here. I am starting to like the over in this game too with the total dropping to 50.5 in some places. Both teams have defensive question marks.

I am going to wait until later in the week before laying any more bets though.

In Sask, Collaros cleared concussion protocol and will likely get the start. What will that line be? -4.5?
 
Is Lulay starting ? I better just stay away there is too much going on. I wanted to fade Montreal after 4 covers and back to back wins but maybe not a good time. I still have a hunch even with all thats going on Montreal gets crushed lol.
 
spottie2935 said:
Is Lulay starting ? I better just stay away there is too much going on. I wanted to fade Montreal after 4 covers and back to back wins but maybe not a good time. I still have a hunch even with all thats going on Montreal gets crushed lol.
Click to expand...

Admittedly I am way behind on my news this week but from what I hear Lulay has been cleared but theres been no confirmation of a starter.
 
Looks like we got -4 and 50.5 in Sask. Lean to Sask and the under but I don't think I can bet either.
 
Adding to Calgary at the same numbers with the news that Brandon Banks is nursing a groin pull this week. He likely won’t practice much or at all but may still play. Either way, a groin pull is going to diminish his play somewhat.

Also, the Stamps get Don Jackson back as well as Patrick Levels in the secondary. There’s also a chance Ciante Evans could come back but it’s uncertain at this point. Full bet is now as follows...

1.5* Calgary -1 -110
 
Also grabbing this before lines get any worse for me. I like both these teams to win outright but don't like the spread.

0.5* Parlay BC / Sask ML +142
 
spottie2935 said:
I agree on BC does Montreal win 3 in a row or cover 5 straight? There are a lot of injuries going on.
Click to expand...

Beyond the fact that Montreal has covered 4 straight, I think we are also getting a low line there due to the fact that BC has yet to win away from home. But I view that as a seasonal aberration rather than a trend. BC and Wally have historically (and counter-intuitively) been a good road team and even last season they did very well playing in the east. They very nearly beat both Ottawa and Toronto so I think they should be able to get over that hump and beat Montreal. Lulay has been practicing with the team today so although its unofficial, I don't see why he wouldn't start. Finally, I'm reading all over that Manziel has the "stomach flu" this week but more quietly, its been reported that an assistant coach has it too. I've seen the way these things can spread around locker rooms so wouldn't be surprised if other players began to be afflicted by the weekend.

I'm a big believer in the 'never as good as your best game or as bad as your worst game' theory and Montreal's last game was definitely their best. They are due for some regression I would hope.

In Sask, I think Ottawa will have a very tough time. This is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions. Ottawa has looked awful for 2 straight games while Sask has won 4 straight and looks like they are heading somewhere. Having 2 straight western road games doesn't give the RBs much time to correct problems and Sask has become the second most difficult place to get a win (next to Calgary). Finally, Ottawa was the only blowout loss (40-17) the Riders have suffered all year and I think they want a little payback in front of the home crowd. The only thing keeping me off the side is that Ottawa doesn't typically lose or win big so I don't like the 5 point spread.
 
Hearing Terrance Toliver had a leg injury at practice today. No further update. May be nothing
 
In BC Kevin Elliot is cut as Devier Posey is ready to go, fresh of his NFL stint. Rookie Peter Godber will start on the O-line in Husband's absence.

Chris Rainey is back in the lineup again this week. I find that odd considering he was benched last week and trade rumors were swirling.
 
Riders getting Dante Moncrief back at SAM this week. Matt Elam was no slouch but Moncrief is a stud. Ottawa is going to have their hands full with this defence.

Also Collaros confirmed as starter this weekend.
 
I have to take a shot with Sask. It just seems like everything is lining up for them and against the Redblacks. This could be another one of those 'avalanche' games they tend to have at home. I've missed the boat for the past few weeks with them but I think there's still value here and I'm not missing it again.

1* Saskatchewan -4.5 -113

Paid a little extra juice to get under the 5 because mathematically a 5 in the CFL is roughly equivalent to a 6 in the NFL and vice versa. Worth about 8 cents in my estimation.
 
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