CFL Syndicate 2025

[Hulu]

Ok changed my mind as I so often do.

1* TOR / HAM over 47.5 -110

There's a reason this total is high for a preseason game. As I've mentioned earlier both these teams have solid offences with questionable defences coming into the season. Looking at the depth charts, I see a lot of offensive starters and a lot of defensive newcomers as both teams need to find pieces to fill the holes on that side of the ball.

On the Argos side, Kelly is out for a bit yet but they will start Grey Cup MOP Nick Arbuckle who is very capable and will be throwing to a bevy of starting receivers. He will give way to Cameron Dukes who, while not setting the world on fire in his 9 starts LY, at least has experience and an ability to scramble and improvise and is trying to bone up his downfield passing attack in order to find a career as a qb here. Rookie Tucker Horn out of some Div III school I've never heard of will be on mop up duty.

For the Ti-cats, Mitchell will get the start, followed by promising 3rd year qb (and semcon favourite) Taylor Powell. They will be butressed by the full strating lineup on offence including a stacked and very deep receiving corps. Having Kenny Lawler, TIm White, Shamar Bridges, Kiondre Smith & Drew Wolitarsky on the field at the same time is going to give opposing defenses fits. They have 3rd string receivers who could be starting for other teams. Looking back on the Ti-cats past 3 preseason openers, they have gone over this number all 3 times (53, 49, 48) as Scott Milanovich likes to open the taps a bit in this spot. Last year he had Mitchell and Powell throw a combined 30 pass attempts in the preseason opener (also at home) and I tend to think that happens again here. The clincher for me was Milanovich himself stating this week that he'd like to put some more emphasis on playing aggressive football in the preseason in order to be ready for when the games count. The cats have had slow starts for the past few seasons and he seems to be looking to change that. He furthermore stated that his offensive starting lineup is mostly set so the emphasis will be on the offence developing chemistry rather than finding new faces to plug holes and that he planned to give his starters "more playing time than normal" in order to do that. He knows that this defence will be a work in progress and if the team is to start the season strong, it will be by scoring enough to keep them in games until the defence comes around.

Its pretty rare for me to take a preseason over but I think this spot and those comments warrant it. I also leaned to Hamilton -120 but I think the over is a slightly better play.

 

[Hulu]

One more today...

0.5* Parlay Hamilton ML / Calgary ML +142

I think Calgary wins their home preseason game easily given that they have one under their belts already and are starting a lot of veteran talent vs Edmonton's JV squad. But at -310 its a little tough to swallow so I'm pairing it with Les Tigre-Chats to give me a tasty +ML.

IRL I also included the Yankees ML to bring this up to +218 but don't want to post mixed sport parlays here because it fouls up my record keeping.

 

[Hulu]

Can I just say if ticketmaster was a person, they would deserve to be rogered by a rusty poker for eternity.

For the third time in as many years, I check my digital ticket to find out it has been invalidated by ticketmaster on game day. After 20 mins on hold with them they can't help at all and try to blame my phone, finally telling me to call the cats box office. No problem, its not like they are busy on a game day. Finally get through and the guy says "yeah sorry ticketmaster is crap" and texted me the tickets.

They are a hopelessly corrupt and outright criminal organization. They have been the subject of dozens of investigations and lawsuits over the years. The management has repeatedly lied publicly about their involvement in criminal ticket reselling operations only to be exposed later. Their security is so bad they average about 1 data breach per year and have no business handling customer data whatsoever. I am hard pressed to think of a more utterly corrupt business.

I hate them with the heat of a thousand suns.

 

[spottie2935]

yes I know these teams do not play each other. I’d like them to stay hot and high scoring. The lines and totals always start low and increase. It’s up to the teams to achieve overs. We have not seen totals in the 60’s in quite sometime but this could be the season. Every league want to sell tickets and scoring does that. If they get totals in the 70’s an under can occur without the game being dull.

60’s not 70’s

 

[spottie2935]

I cashed both unders. Very small plays these teams are going to pull back if the totals will adjust and I don’t think pre-season matters to the books adjustment.


Another guy I know thinks highly of Ottawas offense as well and also their lack of D. If they still have a bad D and don’t score big. That will be a problem for them. We will see.

Argos finished last year 5 in a row over and Ittaeas last 3 games were tremendously high scoring.


I expect initial regression and to pick up the pace after a few weeks. In general the scoring will be back. Scoring creates interest and interest is money.

 

[spottie2935]

Here's what 365 has up. No opinions from me right now. Just haven't had the time to do the homework this week.

View attachment 97429

appreciate you posting this i was on the go most of the day

 

[spottie2935]

Can I just say if ticketmaster was a person, they would deserve to be rogered by a rusty poker for eternity.

For the third time in as many years, I check my digital ticket to find out it has been invalidated by ticketmaster on game day. After 20 mins on hold with them they can't help at all and try to blame my phone, finally telling me to call the cats box office. No problem, its not like they are busy on a game day. Finally get through and the guy says "yeah sorry ticketmaster is crap" and texted me the tickets.

They are a hopelessly corrupt and outright criminal organization. They have been the subject of dozens of investigations and lawsuits over the years. The management has repeatedly lied publicly about their involvement in criminal ticket reselling operations only to be exposed later. Their security is so bad they average about 1 data breach per year and have no business handling customer data whatsoever. I am hard pressed to think of a more utterly corrupt business.

I hate them with the heat of a thousand suns.

Belichick says do your job

 

[spottie2935]

Ottawa:

season>2018 and playoffs=1. Has played 3 games. The worst CFL team.

season>2018 record =23-63 SU the worse CFL team

The Elks and RBlacks are the 2 worst teams. I do believe on or both of these teams will improve but I am guessing on the Elks. I have to see before I gain confidence.

RBlacks I am more confident in. The RBlacks and Elks home spreads since 2018

Elks: 11-30 ATS

RBlacks: 16-27 ATS

So what am I thinking. When we all see a bad team and they show once again they are bad fade them on their home field. The lines are not as inflated as they are on the road. Home dogs usually have to win to be considered safe or at least have a 7+point lead. Bad teams fail miserably.

Favorite bettors fade bad teams when the bad team is home.

 

[spottie2935]

season>2018 and away dog and opponent team: take ANY team as an away dog when the home team is :

Fading these teams ATS record: again fade these home favorites

Stamps: 6-23 ATS
RBlacks 2-9 ATS
Elks 5-14 ATS

13-46 ATS

Keep it simple and await opportunity. No need to mess around betting against elite teams or regression. Thats been my down fall expecting the elite to regress. In a 9 team league the regression doesnt occur as often. Most regular season outstanding win teams has been Calgary and Winnipeg. Now Cagary is in regression look at how bad they have been in home games ATS and Winnipeg should be heading there.

Winnipeg and season then ATS record:

2018 5-3
2019 6-2
2020 0-0
2021 4-3
2022 7-3
2023 8-2
2024 4-6
combined 34-19 ats and off a losing season finally

 

[Teapot9]

Gents, sorry for anyone who followed my preseason bet on the Leos, that was a misread on my part. The lesson here is you simply can't believe anything coaches say or infer anything in the preseason.

But I have seen some well-deserved criticism of the team in the days after. By all accounts, the team was marketing this game as "come see Nathan Rourke" to the fine people of Victoria and they paid good money to show up and watch him play 4 plays and not even throw a real pass. How many of those people will pay good money the next time around? This isn't the NFL where fans will show up and even if they don't the TV money pays for everything. The CFL survives by putting asses in seats so its pretty disrespectful to treat them like that IMO.

Anyway, nothing like putting yourself into a 2.5 unit hole to start things off. Nothing comes easy in this game.

But I am going to add a future on the Lions here to win it all. If Rourke can return to even 80% of his 2023 form, the ceiling for this team is very high and based on all I am seeing and hearing (and guessing, lets be honest) that is more likely to happen than not. There are some good teams in the west but there will be no better QB and that is everything in a 3-down league. You can't rush your way to a title here.

I think there is legitimate competition from Sask although they may have lost 2 potential starting nat offensive linemen in camp already and it will rest on the 39 year old shoulders of Trevor Harris who will need to stay healthy. Winnipeg is never out of it as long as Collaros is in form but I really think they begin to fade this year as they lose pieces and their remaining core ages. Edmonton has an outside shot with the talent they've assembled but it will depend on Tre Ford taking the next step as a QB. Toronto ain't going anywhere unless Kelly can pull off a miracle. In the east Montreal has a very solid roster top to bottom but a QB that for all his promise has started 4 games. Ottawa's defence isn't championship calibre and their offence, while good, isn't enough to carry the team on its own.

I think at this number, BC is probably the best pick to win it all.

0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750

Literally was talking to myself in the shower about BC, I’m pulling the trigger

 

[Teapot9]

Fuck the boat

 

[spottie2935]

So if BC is that team, and they very well could be and Ottawa continues in their string trends and the Argos stay decent does Winnipeg continue to trend down. Usually only 2 elite teams. There has been more than 2 good home teams though.

Best teams and I’m shooting from the hip here.

BC
Argos
Red Blacks this one I’m not so sure of but certainly off a good finish scoring points.
Alouettes
Is Winnipeg 4th or less this season? Could be. What about the Elks as terrible they have been covering.

 

[spottie2935]

I’m looking for the totals to go back to the days when a very rare very low total was 46. Normal totals were between 48-56.5 and the rare 59 or 60 total that only happens one or 2 times a season. The Argos used to be money unders when their totals were over 50. They based their team on big time D and a non stoppable running game. That was 2005 before Ricky Ray arrived they won a cup that season.

 

[Teapot9]

CFL + in the states not working at the moment

 

[Hulu]

Ahh preseason...when 732 yards of offence can somehow only lead to 40 points.

What a bizarre game. Cats left BLM in the entire first half and then some and he looked absolutely wild. When he wasn't overthrowing receivers he was skippin g the ball to them. 3 potential TDs missed. They could only generate a couple of field goals. The Argos were even worse with Arbuckle and Dukes combining for jack shit.

The guy from the DIv III school looked like the best QB on the field and that's pretty sad.

 

[Hulu]

I’m looking for the totals to go back to the days when a very rare very low total was 46. Normal totals were between 48-56.5 and the rare 59 or 60 total that only happens one or 2 times a season. The Argos used to be money unders when their totals were over 50. They based their team on big time D and a non stoppable running game. That was 2005 before Ricky Ray arrived they won a cup that season.

I don't have complete data on totals but I do have my betting history going back to 2012 (and a bit I was able to recover from 2010/2011 after the crash).

From 2012-2019 totals I was betting were routinely in the 51-55 range with a couple as low as 48 but that was about the floor. A few in the high 50s and 2 in the low 60s even. I bet more unders than overs by a 3:1 ratio and did pretty well with totals in those years.

I remember one notable game in 2019 week 2 when Sask visited Ottawa and both had QBs making their first start. I took under 49 when it opened and as I recall it sank to 46.5 by kickoff which I had never seen. I remember commenting that it was a historically low total. Naturally the teams combined for over 80 points as a young Cody Fajardo, previously only used as a short yardage QB, got his first start and surprised the hell out of everyone.

Then the pandemic changed everything. When the league returned belatedly in 2021, you had 2 years worth of roster turnover, 2 years of draft classes and a lot of players who decided to retire in the off year. Combine all that roster turnover with no preseason and a truncated camp and the offenses were all out of sync and scores plummeted. Unders ruled to start the year until the market adjusted until by week 6 they were putting up totals as low as 42 and nothing above 49. Complete sea change.

Since then its been 3 years with totals slowly starting to come back to where they had historically been. The league made rule changes to try and encourage scoring (most of which I hate and wish they would roll back but that's another story) but there was also a dearth of QB talent which slowed that down.

Finally in 2024 the stars aligned to bring offences back and by the latetr half of the year we were finally seeing pre-pandemic totals in the 51-52 range again.

I think this year continues that trend. Every team in the league has a solid if not great QB and the receiving and OL talent has never been stronger. I think by year's end totals of 53-54 will be routine.

 

[spottie2935]

League was in turmoil after the pandemic because the game scoring was so low. They can’t go back to those days so the totals have to sustain or still go north. Could be in a few years 60 totals are more common than in the past. I’m talking my way thru this because I will over react because of history. The NFL went thru this back in the day as well. 42 was an average line with 36 being low and being very high. Never in the 50’s unless it was the Super Bowl. Now the ceiling is 55 but there have been a very few regular season 57’s

 

[spottie2935]

Since and after 2022 there have only been 24 games when the home team was favored and the total was >=51

Well obviously scoring is down that one big factor, here is also a trend

Before 2016 the league average was 22 games when the road team was favored. Since then we are now averaging north of 27 and most recently over 30 games.

2017 =29
2018=31
2019=30
2021=24
2022=32
2023=31
2024=31

Less parody since and after 2015

Bombers and Stamps 79 games combined

Ottawa only 11
And these teams under 26:
Argos
Elks
Riders
Al’s
RBlacks.


Since and after 2018 (six years of data) there have been 114 home games with a total line of >=50

Same time frame home game totals<50 , 251



From and after 2011 and before 2018 (six years of data)
Home games with
totals>=50 = 320
totals <50 =145

 

[Hulu]

Since and after 2022 there have only been 24 games when the home team was favored and the total was >=51

Well obviously scoring is down that one big factor, here is also a trend

Before 2016 the league average was 22 games when the road team was favored. Since then we are now averaging north of 27 and most recently over 30 games.

2017 =29
2018=31
2019=30
2021=24
2022=32
2023=31
2024=31

Less parody since and after 2015

Bombers and Stamps 79 games combined

Ottawa only 11
And these teams under 26:
Argos
Elks
Riders
Al’s
RBlacks.


Since and after 2018 (six years of data) there have been 114 home games with a total line of >=50

Same time frame home game totals<50 , 251



From and after 2011 and before 2018 (six years of data)
Home games with
totals>=50 = 320
totals <50 =145

Home field advantage seems to be fading across all sports but especially the CFL. In the past 10-15 years the teams have really upped their travel game. Teams now have charter planes instead of flying commercial, they stay in better hotels, eat better meals etc.

At this point, I think HFA is worth maybe 2 points and that might even be too much.

 

[Hulu]

The Redblacks secondary woes continue.

They already lost their best DB, Damon Webb to Calgary in free agency. Then they signed Tunde Adeleke away from Toronto but he promptly retired before camp. Now Tobias Harris is retiring due to medical issues. He was not a full time starter and started 6 games LY but this is still another tough blow for a beleaguered unit.

Also, Toronto apparently lost DL Brian Cox jr before Saturday's preseason game. Word is it may be season-ending. He was one of the signings the Argos made to try and rebuild their DL after their top 5 bodies left in free agency. This defense will be a shadow of its former self.

 

[Hulu]

Some totals data from LY

2024 Avg Total 50.1 (First 10 weeks Avg 49.6, Last 11 weeks Avg 50.5)
2024 Avg Reg Actual 51.3 (First 10 weeks Avg 50.9, Last 11 weeks Avg 51.6)
You can see a clear rising trend that the market was catching up to all year.

Hamilton, Edmonton & Toronto lead the way as over teams. I think that continues with Hamilton and Toronto but Edmonton's defence will be much better so they may change.
Winnipeg the only real clear under team. I'm not sure if that continues with their defensive losses. BC was also an under team but I think that had as much to do with a market overreaction to Rourke's return than anything. Montreal as well and I tend to think they will be an under team this year as they return a solid D and have a first year starter at QB.

Team	Unders	Overs	Avg Score	Avg Opp Score	Avg Total	Avg Actual	Delta
BC Lions	12	6	25	24	51.2	48.8	-2.4
Calgary	8	10	22	29	49.9	51.2	1.3
Edmonton	6	12	28	28	50.5	55.7	5.3
Saskatchewan	9	9	26	24	49.8	50.1	0.3
Winnipeg	14	4	25	20	48.8	44.9	-3.8
Hamilton	6	12	27	31	51.1	57.9	6.9
Toronto	6	12	28	27	50.4	54.9	4.5
Ottawa Montreal Overall	10 11 41	8 7 40	24 25 26	27 22 26	49.8 49.4 50.1	50.7 47.1 51.3	0.9 -2.3 1.2

 

[spottie2935]

Thanks you provide me some ideas. I’ll post sometime soon. I will look up the teams who went over their team totals from last season. After a few games we will see who has good offenses and can find opportunities off of the previous seasons dysfunction or the opposite they went over but now are struggling. It’s not some that I would focus on but it’s something that can assist in certain situations.

 

[spottie2935]

When I see Winnipeg with so many unders yet still winning at a high level that makes a statement. What want to see from Winnipeg is regression and unders are bad in this case. Bad teams give up points and lose because of it. If they give up points that is a regression signal. Look for it in teams with a strong history.

Years past The Stamps were the awesome team, but not anymore they are the worst home favorite cover team. 6-23 ats last 29 and 11-28 ats last 39. This could happen to Winnipeg in their regression. Be patient wait to see their game play. If i see the bad defense or dysfunction it’s go time to fade away.

 

[spottie2935]

Very few CFL games are won by teams that don’t score 24 +. So looking at the bombers last year they were 1-8 in those games when scored<25. 11-0 when 25+.

 

[spottie2935]

2024 and really all seasons are the same if a team reaches their team total they cover. Last season only 17 games both teams reached their team total and the dogs were 14-12-1 ats.

When the favorite didn’t reach their team total dogs were 30-9 ats no matter if the dog got to their team total or not.

Favorites getting to their team total were 31-14-1.

When any team reaches their team total the over success rate is outstanding. Even when numbers have favored the unders the past seasons.

Early season could under as offenses gain momentum but I do believe offense will gain momentum.

 

[spottie2935]

The chart below is has data for this :

Teams that did NOT get their team total in their game. What we are looking at is the number of times the team failed to do so.

ALS failed the most and are on top and Ottawa successes the most and are listed on the bottom


=============
No chart for the remaining data.

I also looked at: teams that went over their team totals by 14 and more

Argos for it the most at +5
Ott Wpg and Edm did it each 3 times.


Teams that allowed their opponents to reach their team totals, and yes playoffs are included in all this post. No perimeters on these.

Argos 15 times
Ott 12 times
Lions 11 times


Teams that allowed their opponents 14 points over their team total.

Wpg 4
Elks 4
Argo 3
Ti.Cats 3

So as good as the Bombers were they still had 4 teams exceed their team total by 14 points.


===============

Lastly when neither team got to their team total the favorites ats record was 8-10 ats

 

[spottie2935]

To sum up some of this:
Since the CFL resumed after COVID. These have taken place:
Argos have been the best offense teaching their team total 41
Wpg is second at 38

Als best D allowing their opponents to reach their team total at 29
30 Argos
30 Stamps
So the defenses are much closer with more parody.

The worst D would be Ti.cats at 38

 

[spottie2935]

Now what’s the value in those stats?

Fade favorites with bad D since the Covid

Ott 2-5 ats and 2-4-1 SU this team has been dogs so much they need to elevate so dog wins is their need.

elks
3-10-1 ats 4-10 SU another team that needs more favorite lines.

Stans 5-15 ats so again they are on the bad list.

 

[spottie2935]

if none of that made sense oh well i was drinking late night and bored lol

love Heinekens but sometimes too much

 

[Hulu]

So I looked at the preseason lines yesterday morning and wanted to get down on the Elks +3.5 tonight but I was out of province and couldn't lay the bet. I almost called my wife to do it but I was going to be back in my home province in a couple of hours so I waited. By the time I got across the border, I looked and the line was +1. I hate what legalization has done to my hobby. I really don't understand why it matters where I am located when I place the bet. It should be based on residence, not physical location.

Anyway, looking at futures, 365 has put up season series wagers and there is one I really like.

0.5* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200

As noted in my team previews, I think the Argos are going to take a significant step backwards this year with the major losses they've had on defence. They will still have a potent offence but will be more vulnerable than LY. Chad Kelly is 50/50 to start week 1 and there is a non-zero chance he misses more time than expected. The cats OTOH are about the same and maybe a little better on both sides of the ball. Not great but a little better. They cats owned the Argos last year, winning all 3 meetings (begging the question about who really was the best team last year).

Aside from all that are the meetings themselves. Toronto gets 2/3 of the meetings at home but remember that Hamilton and Toronto are only 45 minutes apart so it does not require a flight or even a hotel stay. The cats generally travel on the morning of the game so they don't lose a practice day travelling as they would for any other road game. Although the Argos generally have a good HFA, the cats play there an awful lot.

The first meeting comes in week 5 at Toronto but consider that the Argos will be on a 5 day week and off a road game while the cats will be on a 7 day week coming off a home game and a bye before that so they won't have travelled in 3 weeks. Toronto will be favoured but the schedule will even things a bit.

Then they meet in week 13 for the labour day game in Hamilton. This is the biggest game of the year in the hammer and the cats win these games at about a 60% clip historically. So much so that a few years ago the Argos tried to have the labour day game rotated between the 2 cities as they felt it was unfair to always have to play in Hamilton on the holiday. I'll give this one to the tabbies.

Then they meet for the 3rd and final time in week 18 in Toronto. Both teams are off road games against tough opponents out west and the Argos have a slight rest advantage, playing on an 8 day week vs the cats 7. This game is a concern because if the cats season goes sideways, this could be a meaningless game but its unlikely.

All in all, I think the cats have a much better chance of winning this series than the 33% that the +200 number implies. It should probably be closer to +140.

 

[spottie2935]

speaking of futures.

Does the MOP have to win the Championship?

Wasnt Dru Brown outstanding last season at least at the end. At 12-1 is he worth a dabble?

 

[spottie2935]

unders tonight if regression continues

Als/RBlack 43.5
Argo/TiCat 43.5

 

[Hulu]

Late add...

0.5* Parlay Ottawa ML / under 43.5 +227

Late to the party here but this game is currently in a weather delay with major rain, lightning and wind. It should get going soon but the rain looks like it should stick for a while. Furthermore, Montreal's QB roster is a JV team. Caleb Evans, Morgan? and Jonathan Senecal will be lucky to score 15. Ottawa should win in a slop fest.

 

[Hulu]

speaking of futures.

Does the MOP have to win the Championship?

Wasnt Dru Brown outstanding last season at least at the end. At 12-1 is he worth a dabble?

He sure looked better as the season wore on and he has a stud receiving group (although they just lost LY 1st round draft pick Nick Mardner for the season) as well as an improved offensive line. The MOP doesn't have to win the championship (it is awarded the week before) but the MOP is generally from a winning team.

Its wide open this year with no obvious candidates so I would say Brown is as good as any

 

[Hulu]

Two player props for the season. I think these are both solid. As usual all these numbers are juiced to the over so under is the only way to look. Injuries can only help.

0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards
Yes McInnis was the league leading receiver LY with 1469 yards but I don't see him as a year in and year out top guy. He is rangy and tall with a good catch radius but he is not a true number 1. Previous to this, his top performance in a full season was 690 yards. Maybe he hits a thousand but to go over 1200 he would have to be a top 3 guy and I'm just not seeing it. Add in a QB change and the chemistry he seemed to have with VAj last year won't be a factor.

0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards
Bridges was a real find for the cats last year and was a real ROY candidate. He put up 930 yards which is outstanding for a rookie but this number is expecting him to take another step this year. He was the number 2 receiver on the cats roster last year behind Tim White but considering the addition of the leagues best receiver, Kenny Lawler, Bridges will be the third guy. I think his targets will go down, not up.

 

[Hulu]

As of now, ALs/Redblacks game is scheduled to kick off at 7:55 eastern.

Also a possible delay in Regina where smoke from wildfires is impacting air quality.

The max weather delay the CFL will allow is 3 hours before cancelling the game. It may be less in preseason. If either of these games were to be cancelled, that could have week 1 implications.

Def a situation to monitor.

 

[spottie2935]

I should have faded the Argos. In week 1 I like them a little bit but this team should be in regression. Maybe not though. There is always one team that’s unstoppable. I gotta see Winnipeg regress. When they show signs they will fall mightily. Nothing against them. Great coach stadium looks super great. Supportive fan base and all that. It’s just their excellence and regression. Much like Calgary. Maybe the next super power is BC with O’Rourke or maybe the ALS

We’ll see but certainly Argos and Bombers are ripe.

 

[Hulu]

I should have faded the Argos. In week 1 I like them a little bit but this team should be in regression. Maybe not though. There is always one team that’s unstoppable. I gotta see Winnipeg regress. When they show signs they will fall mightily. Nothing against them. Great coach stadium looks super great. Supportive fan base and all that. It’s just their excellence and regression. Much like Calgary. Maybe the next super power is BC with O’Rourke or maybe the ALS

We’ll see but certainly Argos and Bombers are ripe.

Agree with all of this and I think Sask could also be in the conversation as an emerging team.

 

[Hulu]

Ottawa with 2 blown special teams plays that handed the ALs 10 points. Preseason...smh

 

[spottie2935]

Agree with all of this and I think Sask could also be in the conversation as an emerging team.

if these regress do not fade the hot team that is outstanding. Montreal i dont really know well but there recent success could continue? it has to be another team if these fall back.

remember the Argos hilarious start a few seasons ago?

2019 started 1-9 with multiple 20 point losses and the lone win was by 1 point as a 15 point dog to WPG LOL. In the first week after the 3rd Q it was 41-6 the game finished 64-14 because of 23-8 4th Q when the game didnt matter. Argos were terrible. After that season they completely reversed

 

[Hulu]

Geez...Otawa's defence is making Caleb Evans look like the second coming of Dunigan. He's been gifted short fields but he's looked sharp.

 

[spottie2935]

my father was a steel sales man in Chicago and Minneapolis back in the 60's thru 90's and one of his customers was from Regina, Living in Minneapolis in my youth I played hocket of course and my father having Canadian clientele. These hosers from Regina bought me a Pats jersey and I still have it. You hosers up North are something

 

[spottie2935]

i knew the unders would at least wash. 55.5 could still see over here, If its regular season I would have no problem betting over
remember 55.5 totals pre-kickoff before 2020 and this game already with 24 points.

 

[Hulu]

Home field advantage seems to be fading across all sports but especially the CFL. In the past 10-15 years the teams have really upped their travel game. Teams now have charter planes instead of flying commercial, they stay in better hotels, eat better meals etc.

At this point, I think HFA is worth maybe 2 points and that might even be too much.

I just updated my totals model and HFA across the league with LY's data added. HFA is now 1.8pts as I calculate it. Down from 1.9 in 2024.

 

[Hulu]

I can't wait for the Saturday nightcap in week 1. Edmonton @ BC. Tre Ford vs Nathan Rourke. This one should be a fun watch.

 

[Hulu]

Last one of my futures...

0.25* Ottawa under 10.5 RSW -104

I just can't envision this team winning 11 games with their secondary.

 

[Hulu]

Results through Preseason

Sides 0-2 -2.50*
Totals 0-1 -1.10*
Parlays 1-1 +0.21*

Overall 1-4 -3.39*

Got a little big for my britches after going 6-0 in the preseason LY. Every time you think you have this game figured out, it humbles you.

Final Review of my 2025 futures...
0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750
0.25* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200
0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards
0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards

Seeing some early week 1 lines popping up. As soon as they appear at a place where I can get down, I will have some plays posted. Here we go!

 

[B.A.R.]

Two player props for the season. I think these are both solid. As usual all these numbers are juiced to the over so under is the only way to look. Injuries can only help.

0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards
Yes McInnis was the league leading receiver LY with 1469 yards but I don't see him as a year in and year out top guy. He is rangy and tall with a good catch radius but he is not a true number 1. Previous to this, his top performance in a full season was 690 yards. Maybe he hits a thousand but to go over 1200 he would have to be a top 3 guy and I'm just not seeing it. Add in a QB change and the chemistry he seemed to have with VAj last year won't be a factor.

0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards
Bridges was a real find for the cats last year and was a real ROY candidate. He put up 930 yards which is outstanding for a rookie but this number is expecting him to take another step this year. He was the number 2 receiver on the cats roster last year behind Tim White but considering the addition of the leagues best receiver, Kenny Lawler, Bridges will be the third guy. I think his targets will go down, not up.

Tailing if I have availability on these.

Love season long stuff like this, really helps keep me in tune.

 

[Hulu]

Tailing if I have availability on these.

Love season long stuff like this, really helps keep me in tune.

Love taking season long unders. Not only are these numbers always way high but one injury and its basically an auto-win.

 

[B.A.R.]

Love taking season long unders. Not only are these numbers always way high but one injury and its basically an auto-win.

Great point!