Hulu's CFL 2018
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#3DownNation
Not sure to be honest. Only thing I can guess is uncertainty about the qb. They never completely closed the door on manziel starting but as of late yesterday, he was still experiencing light sensitivity and hadn’t been cleared to join the team outdoors yet so I think it’s highly unlikely he plays.
It’s still up at some places. The ALs and the over have been taking money. It’s 5 and 52 now.
I’ll post anything I find out.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Thanks man. Every book I have has the game back up except pinnacle oddly.
I'll be at the game tonight. Hate cheering against my team but it is what it is.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I like the Argo's too :cheers3::cheers3:
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results after Week 11
Sides 12-10 +5.56*
Totals 16-7-1 +7.31*
2H plays 7-3 +3.46*
Live Plays 1-0 +0.75*
Teaser/Parlay 2-1 +0.75*
Overall 38-21-1 +17.83*
Second straight losing week albeit less than a unit. That was some mid-season fuckery at its finest right there. Winnipeg had the cover with under 2 minutes to go. All Calgary had to do was make 2 first downs then kneel it out for the win. Instead they somehow score 2 touchdowns in that time. And in Montreal, the over was definitely the right play but both teams kept leaving points on the field. It was finally killed by a field goal off the post as time expired. That's gambling.
Only play this week so far as posted above. Missed the best number.
1* Toronto +7.5 -110
Sides 12-10 +5.56*
Totals 16-7-1 +7.31*
2H plays 7-3 +3.46*
Live Plays 1-0 +0.75*
Teaser/Parlay 2-1 +0.75*
Overall 38-21-1 +17.83*
Second straight losing week albeit less than a unit. That was some mid-season fuckery at its finest right there. Winnipeg had the cover with under 2 minutes to go. All Calgary had to do was make 2 first downs then kneel it out for the win. Instead they somehow score 2 touchdowns in that time. And in Montreal, the over was definitely the right play but both teams kept leaving points on the field. It was finally killed by a field goal off the post as time expired. That's gambling.
Only play this week so far as posted above. Missed the best number.
1* Toronto +7.5 -110
Hulu
#3DownNation
Spottie do you think Montreal has enough in them to cover the +16? Regardless of who QBs, they always seem to keep it closer when playing the Redblacks. OTOH its hard to get in the way of Harris who has thrown for over 400 yards in 3 straight games.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
My points on the game.
1) On the field and the last head to head meeting. Ottawa playing well, scoring points and moving the ball. Ottawa gave the cover away last meeting and if they play to that level again then Ottawa could and should get the cover.
2) Montreal has covered 3 in a row now. In my opinion they have played better but the real reason behind them cashing tickets are the inflated lines. It is the case again here in my opinion. That does not mean Ottawa can't bet the crap out of them. Problem is laying this many in 2 down football late game poor performaces can leave the backdoor open.
3) Ottawa is 1-8 ATS when laying -6.5 or higher. Ottawa's one cover in this situation was against Montreal last season and that line was -16.5.
4) Is Sutton back this week? Who is the starting QB for Montreal. I am not sold Manziel can stay away from blowing up, and giving the game away.
The discounted lines fading the Alouettes are a thing of the past. The poor Alouettes team are still present and there is always the risk of them self destructing and giving the game away. We have seen the Alouettes D quit playing at times.
My final take. I do not bet ever game for the same amount of units. I believe the lines maker makes adjustments and as they do I make my unit adjustments. I play team trends a lot and for that reason I am on Montreal for 1 unit. I am not excited for this play, but it fits into my system and thats good enough for me.
On the field this could be a blow out, but the lines are ridiculous. Ottawa can cover yes but bettors are paying a hefty price.
Montreal has a bye week ahead in week 13 and are home to BC in week 14. If they get destroyed here I expect to be getting a nice line against BC and I will know more about Sutton and who the Starting QB is. If Montreal stays in the game and cashes that would make 4 covers in a row and these high prices could subside a little bit.
I play chess and think ahead for my next move, keep my units in check and wait for bigger opportunities. 3 covers in a row is not a big opportunity but the price is still very high.
Montreal +16.5 1 unit but I have no strong feeling on either side.
1) On the field and the last head to head meeting. Ottawa playing well, scoring points and moving the ball. Ottawa gave the cover away last meeting and if they play to that level again then Ottawa could and should get the cover.
2) Montreal has covered 3 in a row now. In my opinion they have played better but the real reason behind them cashing tickets are the inflated lines. It is the case again here in my opinion. That does not mean Ottawa can't bet the crap out of them. Problem is laying this many in 2 down football late game poor performaces can leave the backdoor open.
3) Ottawa is 1-8 ATS when laying -6.5 or higher. Ottawa's one cover in this situation was against Montreal last season and that line was -16.5.
4) Is Sutton back this week? Who is the starting QB for Montreal. I am not sold Manziel can stay away from blowing up, and giving the game away.
The discounted lines fading the Alouettes are a thing of the past. The poor Alouettes team are still present and there is always the risk of them self destructing and giving the game away. We have seen the Alouettes D quit playing at times.
My final take. I do not bet ever game for the same amount of units. I believe the lines maker makes adjustments and as they do I make my unit adjustments. I play team trends a lot and for that reason I am on Montreal for 1 unit. I am not excited for this play, but it fits into my system and thats good enough for me.
On the field this could be a blow out, but the lines are ridiculous. Ottawa can cover yes but bettors are paying a hefty price.
Montreal has a bye week ahead in week 13 and are home to BC in week 14. If they get destroyed here I expect to be getting a nice line against BC and I will know more about Sutton and who the Starting QB is. If Montreal stays in the game and cashes that would make 4 covers in a row and these high prices could subside a little bit.
I play chess and think ahead for my next move, keep my units in check and wait for bigger opportunities. 3 covers in a row is not a big opportunity but the price is still very high.
Montreal +16.5 1 unit but I have no strong feeling on either side.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Great info, thanks Spottie.
I see it much the same. I think the correct line on this was the opener -13. When it zoomed up, value shifted to the Alouettes.
Manziel has passed concussion protocol and has practiced sparingly with the team this week but by all accounts Pipkin will start which is my preference at this point. I've said it all year that I don't think Manziel's heart is in this CFL escapade and even moreso since he ended up with the worst dumpster fire of a team in the league. This team seems to rally around Pipkin and their level of play elevates with him. I feel this team is in the same position Hamilton was in last year in that they finally see a faint glimmer of hope and it has lifted their spirits. Not that I'm very high on Pipkin overall, I think he caught some lucky breaks last week. The big throw he made that TSN keeps replaying over and over was really more of a great play by a receiver after a poor decision to throw late across the middle into double coverage.
I don't know about Montreal's RB situation though and that is a big question mark. I will know more by late tonight or early tomorrow. Sutton is a question mark and Stanback is out after getting dinged last week. If neither of them can go, the job falls to Ryder Stone who is a different sort of back.
One piece they do potentially get back this week is Stef Logan which is a big deal for them. Their avg starting field position dropped off by about 15 yards or so since hes been out. Also, Gabe Knapton is back and should help solidify the DL rotation with Vantrel McMillan still out.
As you pointed out, Ottawa doesn't often win games big and these two teams seem to play closer than you would expect. Their previous games this season were settled by 10 (line:-8) and 7 (line:-14) points although the latter was mainly because of Ottawa's fumblefingers in the redzone. I think the ALs are in a better place now than they were in either of those two meetings and we are getting more points than we ever have.
One final point about Ottawa...they still seem to play better on the road than at home. This is not a trend I would expect to last forever but under the current regime is has been pretty consistent. 5-9 ATS at home and 11-3 ATS on the road since last year.
So in short, I don't necessarily want to back this crap team but the line is so inflated and there are several situational factors that make this a value play IMO.
I see it much the same. I think the correct line on this was the opener -13. When it zoomed up, value shifted to the Alouettes.
Manziel has passed concussion protocol and has practiced sparingly with the team this week but by all accounts Pipkin will start which is my preference at this point. I've said it all year that I don't think Manziel's heart is in this CFL escapade and even moreso since he ended up with the worst dumpster fire of a team in the league. This team seems to rally around Pipkin and their level of play elevates with him. I feel this team is in the same position Hamilton was in last year in that they finally see a faint glimmer of hope and it has lifted their spirits. Not that I'm very high on Pipkin overall, I think he caught some lucky breaks last week. The big throw he made that TSN keeps replaying over and over was really more of a great play by a receiver after a poor decision to throw late across the middle into double coverage.
I don't know about Montreal's RB situation though and that is a big question mark. I will know more by late tonight or early tomorrow. Sutton is a question mark and Stanback is out after getting dinged last week. If neither of them can go, the job falls to Ryder Stone who is a different sort of back.
One piece they do potentially get back this week is Stef Logan which is a big deal for them. Their avg starting field position dropped off by about 15 yards or so since hes been out. Also, Gabe Knapton is back and should help solidify the DL rotation with Vantrel McMillan still out.
As you pointed out, Ottawa doesn't often win games big and these two teams seem to play closer than you would expect. Their previous games this season were settled by 10 (line:-8) and 7 (line:-14) points although the latter was mainly because of Ottawa's fumblefingers in the redzone. I think the ALs are in a better place now than they were in either of those two meetings and we are getting more points than we ever have.
One final point about Ottawa...they still seem to play better on the road than at home. This is not a trend I would expect to last forever but under the current regime is has been pretty consistent. 5-9 ATS at home and 11-3 ATS on the road since last year.
So in short, I don't necessarily want to back this crap team but the line is so inflated and there are several situational factors that make this a value play IMO.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I enjoy reading your thoughts. Thanks for sharing
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Okay that’s good. well see what happens.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Reporting in.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Been absent. Prepared to face any disciplinary sanctions
Hulu
#3DownNation
Welcome back sir.
Looks like we could get weather in both games tomorrow.
In Calgary a chance of rain but more importantly, wind 30km/h gusting to 50.
In Hamilton 60% chance of showers with chance of a t-storm and some wind also.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Bombers send Jeffcoat to the 6gm and Poop Johnson to the 1gm leaving them pretty thin on the DL.
Mo Leggat out and Chandler Fenner will take over the SAM. No big downgrade there.
Weston Dressler a GTD. Darvin Adams moves inside to the slot and Corey Washington gets his first start at receiver.
I love sask today but not at the present -3.5.
Mo Leggat out and Chandler Fenner will take over the SAM. No big downgrade there.
Weston Dressler a GTD. Darvin Adams moves inside to the slot and Corey Washington gets his first start at receiver.
I love sask today but not at the present -3.5.
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
Any thoughts on the total in Calgary Hulu?
Hulu
#3DownNation
I made it 52. Slight lean to the under but I can make compelling cases for both over or under so I won’t play it either way.
Edmonton probably has value catching 7.5 but I dont want to mess with Calgary at home where they are >60% ATS over the past few years.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
The only team that has the QB that is keeping pace with Calgary Bo Levi is Edmonton's Reilly If I am not mistaken they both have thrown for 20 TD's . The problem is the Defenses are not comparable. I do think the +7.5 is betable. Edmonton can keep pace here but it depends on high out put of their offense. According to the past lines this season ( I use these as comparisons for value in a small league.) Edmonton's ability to score makes them a play here at this line. Do I expect an out right win? Nope Calgary is so good at home.
Edmonton +7.5 2 units
=-=-=--=-==--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-
Play of the week for me. (It should have been Montreal lol) but seriously after a loss to the Alouettes this line is very generous. I would understand this line more if it was a better team but this is Hamilton. Toronto is well below average, and after last week loss I understand why this line is what it is.
I really think that one of the 2 dogs gets paid today is this game to me is the better dance.
3 units on the Argo's +7.5 ( I got in too early but I took it because I didnt want to miss the hook.
Edmonton +7.5 2 units
=-=-=--=-==--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-
Play of the week for me. (It should have been Montreal lol) but seriously after a loss to the Alouettes this line is very generous. I would understand this line more if it was a better team but this is Hamilton. Toronto is well below average, and after last week loss I understand why this line is what it is.
I really think that one of the 2 dogs gets paid today is this game to me is the better dance.
3 units on the Argo's +7.5 ( I got in too early but I took it because I didnt want to miss the hook.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Agree on everything you said spottie and I too got down on the Argos too early because I thought for sure the line would be under 7 by kickoff. Now its 9 in some shops.
I think the Hamilton win over Edmonton last week is helping the narrative on both these games. There is a feeling out there that Hamilton made some sort of statement with that win but what I saw was an extremely gassed Edmonton team fade badly in the second half. They were on 5 days vs a team off a bye at home. It made Hamilton look better than they are and Edmonton worse. Same thing with Toronto, they're not great but they're a lot better than what we saw last week, especially now that Woods has had a week to settle in to the defense.
I may take a half unit on Edmonton if they hit +8 just as a hedge on my parlay. I think there's a decent chance to middle that. Still thinking about it
I think the Hamilton win over Edmonton last week is helping the narrative on both these games. There is a feeling out there that Hamilton made some sort of statement with that win but what I saw was an extremely gassed Edmonton team fade badly in the second half. They were on 5 days vs a team off a bye at home. It made Hamilton look better than they are and Edmonton worse. Same thing with Toronto, they're not great but they're a lot better than what we saw last week, especially now that Woods has had a week to settle in to the defense.
I may take a half unit on Edmonton if they hit +8 just as a hedge on my parlay. I think there's a decent chance to middle that. Still thinking about it
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#3DownNation
Major thunderstorms headed for Hamilton but they should be past by game time. I like this kind of situation because it can often cause the total to drop too much and I like the over here. I'm seeing its dipped a half point at some shops this morning. I would like 49.5 if I can get it
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
http://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query...d+p:W+and+date+>20140301&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
I found this and to define this :
Starting from the 2014 season any team That is Home and the line is -7.5 or higher. This Home Favorite is off a win in its last contest. Is playing a team that is off a loss in their last game but won the game before that. So this excludes teams on losing streaks. The Home Favorite is 3-9 ATS in these situations
I found this and to define this :
Starting from the 2014 season any team That is Home and the line is -7.5 or higher. This Home Favorite is off a win in its last contest. Is playing a team that is off a loss in their last game but won the game before that. So this excludes teams on losing streaks. The Home Favorite is 3-9 ATS in these situations
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Good job waiting on that nice line
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Someone said its windy in Calgary but I think this will assist Edmonton's Defense. That is a hunch. Well see.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Forecast is showing 30km gusting to 50 but looking at the radar, it looks as if the worst of the storm has already passed. Winds may be strong in the 1H and then fade throughout the game. Its hard to get a feel without being there.
I tend to think wind usually favours the defense and the dog as long as they have a capable running game which the Esks do.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Let's get some winners and have a really nice day ! Best wishes Hulu :tiphat:
Hulu
#3DownNation
Thats what its all about man. You too.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
You got them both :rosesmile:
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
oh well, CFL wild games
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yeah that was a nutty game to be sure. I still think the Argos were the right side to be on there but yu can never account for that kind of game
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results after Week 12
Sides 14-11 +5.46*
Totals 16-7-1 +7.31*
2H plays 7-3 +3.46*
Live Plays 1-0 +0.75*
Teaser/Parlay 3-1 +1.355*
Overall 41-22-1 +18.355*
3-1 but only a half unit of profit this week. I really regret not following my gut and taking the over in Hamilton but hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
Sides 14-11 +5.46*
Totals 16-7-1 +7.31*
2H plays 7-3 +3.46*
Live Plays 1-0 +0.75*
Teaser/Parlay 3-1 +1.355*
Overall 41-22-1 +18.355*
3-1 but only a half unit of profit this week. I really regret not following my gut and taking the over in Hamilton but hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
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