CFL Syndicate 2025

[spottie2935]

Home Favorites that score 28 or less are 98-337-5 (22.5%) ATS

I randomly selected 28

Less than 35 it is

[td]

208-447-8 (31.8%)
​

[/td]​

According to my double check there are a lot of results here and no missing data. I’m doing my best to confirm my data as some of the results don’t execute properly. In this case with so many results we are accurate.


The CFL is about scoring and offensives possessions and keeping the ball. That’s what good teams do. Bc out rushed and held the ball longer 5 minutes longer than the Elks last week. Winnipeg has to flip that this week on them.

 

[Teapot9]

.5*/.5* BC Lions -2.5/ML -110/-140
I am taking a flyer here that the Bombers defence will have taken a half step back from last year and will struggle to keep Rourke and co in check. With BC's offence in full flight, Winnipeg's offence simply won't be able to keep up with Streveler at the helm.

1* Montreal ML -105
I didn't like what I saw from Ottawa last week and although they will likely get better, Dru Brown may be playing hurt and this Montreal defence will feast on Ottawa's banged up OL.

Nathan Rourke has the opportunity to make a fan for life this game

 

[Hulu]

Home Favorites that score 28 or less are 98-337-5 (22.5%) ATS

I randomly selected 28

Less than 35 it is

[td]
208-447-8 (31.8%)

[/td]​

According to my double check there are a lot of results here and no missing data. I’m doing my best to confirm my data as some of the results don’t execute properly. In this case with so many results we are accurate.


The CFL is about scoring and offensives possessions and keeping the ball. That’s what good teams do. Bc out rushed and held the ball longer 5 minutes longer than the Elks last week. Winnipeg has to flip that this week on them.

So a home fav has to score over 28 or they have just a 1 in 5 chance of covering? If they score under 35 it only becomes a 1 in 3 chance? I know the CFL is a higher scoring league than the NFL but that just seems incredible unless I am reading it wrong.

Can you post the query that gave these results? Not trying to call you out here but trying to understand how that could be possible. It just doesn't add up in my head.

 

[spottie2935]

Yes I’ll go do that and post now but don’t forget the line also has a big factor. A -10 line influences this stat more than -1

 

[spottie2935]

H and F and points<28

H and F and points<35


There are about 25 games each season that qualify. That’s like 1.25 per week

 

[spottie2935]

I think you’re looking at the top of 28 points. It’s not the majority of these claims.

The majority of the <28 point claims is 20 to 26 points and the most failures are the higher lines. So not all lines are congruent and not all point outputs are equal.

It is factual but the lines and points under 20 are the big difference makers in the data and ROI

If a line is -4 or greater from -1 to -4.5 it’s 17-14 ats for the home favorite. With a standard of at least 20 points but not as many as 28

 

[spottie2935]

The 35 point data is telling because the ROI decreases the % from as you said 5-1 to 3-1

It’s the big lines and under 20 point games that influence the profitability massively.

It still averages 1.25 times a week and point wise Toronto is a possible candidate. Line wise not as influential here because obviously -1.5 is more like a 40% outcome not 20% or 25% chance.


Only 46 games since 2006 has the line been -1 or -1.5 and the home favorite output been under 28 points 46 times.

The favorite has been 15-29-2 ats and 17-29 SU “lifetime”

6-8-1 ats and 7-8 straight up since 2018. They also made rule changes to create more offense and more scoring. some or all of the data could be obsolete.

I still believe that Toronto is a fade here but the data I have explained just made more balance.

The best ROI for Toronto is to score 20 +

If they don’t it’s a terrible chance and extremely low ROI chance. That’s really my point I just didn’t explain it in more detail.

Now I’m being more thoughtful and fair.

That being said it depends on the opponent and the data is still saying even 27 points and a line -1 to -3 isn’t profitable unless the Stamos are inefficient, which Is my point. Toronto’s ability to score snd Calgarys ability to keep pace and get and keep a lead

 

[spottie2935]

With a line greater, than -4, line closer to 0, and the favor scores 28 to 35 points is 21-14 ats for the favorite.

This is mostly in-game thinking. It unpredictable pregame info. It’s the CFL

 

[spottie2935]

what we did was collaborate to make some future considerations that will help us understand the odds of what might take place.

 

[Hulu]

Ok thanks. I sort of get it now. Makes more sense than how I initially interpreted it.

 

[Hulu]

Recapping my already-posted plays for week 2. Good luck to all!

.5*/.5* BC Lions -2.5/ML -110/-140
1* Montreal ML -105
.75*/.25* Hamilton +3.5 / ML -114 / +156
.5*/.5* Toronto -1.5/ML -109/-128

Not a fan of having a side bet on every game this week but if there is a time in the season to do that, its in weeks 1-3 IMO. And I've got a better number than current market on 3 of the 4 so I can't complain about that.

 

[Hulu]

Montreal with a couple of late scratches this week. LT Nick Callender is out and will be replaced by a rookie LT. Normally thats a concern but I am still convinced the ALs will dominate this game.

WR Charles Rambo will also miss for personal reasons but again, they have enough receiving talent on this roster to paper over that hole pretty easily.

Ottawa will have a rookie starting at safety with both Addae and Howell being out. Add that to the other 2 rookies in the secondary and Davis Alexander should have a field day tomorrow.

 

[Hulu]

2 hours until kick and BC has reached -4.5 at some shops. That's a bit silly and I wouldn't bet them at that number. IMO the value shifts to WPG somewhere around 4.

Wouldn't surprise me to see this keep on climbing because BC is a public darling right now. I don't like being on the square side but hey, the public wins sometimes too.

 

[Hulu]

0.5* Live BC Lions ML +120

 

[B.A.R.]

0.5* Live BC Lions ML +120

I'm taking the +3.5 at the break for my first CFL bet of this season!

 

[B.A.R.]

I was living in Vegas before all the app and phone betting and yet I was still betting online. It was right before Pinny banished USA customers. I bet one football MGM parlay card a week 11 teamer wins 140k. One week I missed one game because I didn’t stick to my guns. I let something penetrate my decision. The punt return TD killed me.

Another time I did all the homework in CBB conference tourney’s and early rounds 64 tourney betting. Cashout 20gs some placed didn’t blink an eye. Station casinos were documenting me and profiling me. Surveillance photos and all.

I worked at the Wynn Encore and I would listen to customers talk. Some big sports betters were denied because they didn’t have casino betting history. These casinos don’t mind losing in the sports book if you take in the money and have a losing history playing back all the money in the casino. Player only bets sports? If not stealthy one will be limited. William hill is famous for that.


South point was also a famous book for locals. Most books were shut down over nigh to do the accounting. However they did it early and Saturday night/ Sunday morning would open at 4 am instead of 6 or 7 am They cornered the market on night/swing shift workers wanting to get all their NFL parlays in. Otherwise if they didn’t bet before Sunday they would have to wait 2 or 3 hours to get their action. 7 am opening windows also had 30 minutes wait times standing in lines unless one got their early to get a better position in line.

I used Suncoast, South Point, Silverton, M Redort and Tuscany. Then like I said Friday night was a stop in to the Luxor for my 11 teamer. All these different hotels I listed had different corporations ownership.

The problem with Vegas back in the day was time, missing lines driving to the books and gas money. I could get at Wynn if I wanted but not a good idea if I won of a problem with a game of ticket occurred. Didn’t want that mess.

I have several casino stories from there as well being a decent enough dice dealer came with adversity and good and bad memories.


Much like the Phil Ivey Baccarat scam they let big players adjust the rules a little bit as long as the bottom line was for deposit only. If the big player won the management job was to review the tape to make sure every card and every chip and all the hand were played exactly by the procedures. We signed documents when we hired on.

My biggest tip, 50k. and of course it’s split thru all dealers 24 hour period split.

The Wynn collected tips on a typical Saturday night North of 150 k. 300 to 450 each. That was in the poker boom 2006 to before the housing crash. That’s when I moved over to Encore for the opening.

Delt face to face with so many ex and current athletes, coaches, movie stars, musicians. John Tutor of Tutor Perini corp was pretty big time. He bet 17k on the 5,8 and 24k on the 6,8 depending on the point. Remember back in the day the post season awards being at the Wynn Theater. I didn’t get to see many but a few of the guys were around.

I still have friends dealing there and I’m sure I could get a part time gig there if a spot opened up. Part of the Problem with Vegas it is California's little brother and they buy up what the casino workers can’t afford. A lot of celebrities have residences there because no state tax. Dealing in Vegas isn’t easy to get a good paying job. It’s still who you know and getting your foot in the door with the mgrs that do the hiring.




Fun times.

Killer read here.

 

[spottie2935]

Pregame I wanted this game to make a statement that WPG is once again dominant. Now let’s see the lines next week. BC on the road is that an issue?. The Lions did have a few injuries on defense. Winnipeg opening night at home. Last week BC opened against the Elks and BC was home. BCs offense is still legit with over 400 yards I hope Rourke is okay.

Early week after a late game, injuries, game at WPG. Tough game for BC but they are Elite.