Bills vs. Chiefs Discussion Thread

not as easy as tits but ill take the plus money.. bills were built to beat kc, not in general, specifically the d is built for kc, and singeltary has brought a run presence that will be very helpful too!! only concern is bills not having their all world corner. but is tyreek fully healthy? im still not sure, he def did something to his foot pre game in denver. bills well coached enough i think they can figure it out without the corner.
 
Big daddy naught said:
No point in playing spread here imo. Not gonna be a 1 or 2 pt game. If you like kc just roll ml. If you like Buffalo take the ml to win outright imo.
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Ya would think that and I’m sure that what I do but seems like every time I say that I turn around and get fucked by a point or 2, getting way more common!!
 
Went into the playoffs thinking the Bills would win this matchup, but god dammit they played too damn well, they were basically perfect on Saturday. The ease with which they dispatched of the Patriots is going to get in their heads. Now I kinda lean to the Chefs.
 
Gandolf said:
Went into the playoffs thinking the Bills would win this matchup, but god dammit they played too damn well, they were basically perfect on Saturday. The ease with which they dispatched of the Patriots is going to get in their heads. Now I kinda lean to the Chefs.
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Kc looked equally as amazing after the 1st qrtr.
 
survive&advance said:
This very well could be the super bowl
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I think winner have hands full w titans. I can’t decide if I’m ready to too call tits a SB team but I think they present problems for both these 2, and they catch them after playing this game they will think was the SB! I think you right winner gets past titans but it won’t be easy, titans got them both this year and they just as battle tested and could be really fresh and healthy!!
 
2daBank said:
I think winner have hands full w titans. I can’t decide if I’m ready to too call tits a SB team but I think they present problems for both these 2, and they catch them after playing this game they will think was the SB! I think you right winner gets past titans but it won’t be easy, titans got them both this year and they just as battle tested and could be really fresh and healthy!!
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No doubt. Titans beat them both already this season! I said in the other thread I think Titans are the best value play to win it. But I also feel like buf and kc kind of held back a little bit in reg season and are playing their best ball now
 
survive&advance said:
No doubt. Titans beat them both already this season! I said in the other thread I think Titans are the best value play to win it. But I also feel like buf and kc kind of held back a little bit in reg season and are playing their best ball now
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Yea I don’t really take a ton from reg season, bills didn’t hold back that game but they also should have won, Allen slips on sneak he gets 99 of 100x, it was a hell of a game tho. Kc was def at their worst when they played them, that game meant nothing. More to the point is Bills were built to beat kc, they don’t match up nearly as well with their d against titans offense. I do think the new found run game be helpful. All depends if tits can regain that form with everyone healthy, that the only concern I have for them this week is they havnt played together much in some time. I think against cincy the dline will carry them if not but they have to be clicking by afc champ or they screwed cause kc/bills are no doubt peaking!!
 
Bills advance here. Chiefs not rolling into 3 straight superbowls. I get points with a really strong team that has been lined at -10 or more times this season multiple times. Any price >+100 is a done deal for me.
 
Hard to not just blindly pick Buffalo as a dog. Questions is, which Josh Allen do we get? Do we get MVP caliber Allen or do we get the other guy that occasionally shows up?
 
Coverdatspred said:
Hard to not just blindly pick Buffalo as a dog. Questions is, which Josh Allen do we get? Do we get MVP caliber Allen or do we get the other guy that occasionally shows up?
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I think I’m convinced we get the bad man in playoffs. I wondered before last game, I’m convinced.
 
Defense cruised last game- I'll say it again Hyde/Poyer best safety tandem in the game but it's a huge ask to make up for the corners in this one. Bills can't blitz with them (which they love to throw in) because you'll have single coverage and mismatches everywhere. Hill/Kelce will get open. I don't think the Bills front four will be able to generate enough pressure to slow the KC offense down.

Offensively the Bills are playing as good as they possibly can- Singletary has come on like gangbusters since the oline solidified. I think they will score pts vs the Chiefs and for this reason I give them a shot. I just don't know how many stops the Bills D can make.

Total once again looks low, given that it might take 40+ to win.

I'll be heavy on the Bills tt over. 27 they get there unless Allen implodes.
 
I know the over will be very public with both teams coming off easy overs. I just don't see either team NOT scoring here. KC not going to turn the ball over 4x like they did last meeting
 
Lexington 125 said:
I know the over will be very public with both teams coming off easy overs. I just don't see either team NOT scoring here. KC not going to turn the ball over 4x like they did last meeting
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Im sure they will both move the ball, think it just come down to the red zone, your squad pretty good holding teams to fgs, really think that the difference in the game.
 
spottie2935 said:
Bills advance here. Chiefs not rolling into 3 straight superbowls. I get points with a really strong team that has been lined at -10 or more times this season multiple times. Any price >+100 is a done deal for me.
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i really hope so. I just think as far as a side this could very well be a coinflip.
 
2daBank said:
Im sure they will both move the ball, think it just come down to the red zone, your squad pretty good holding teams to fgs, really think that the difference in the game.
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Titans in rz- 3 tds

Colts in rz-5 tds 3 fgs

Bucs in rz- 2tds 2 fgs

Patriots (gm 2) in rz- 3 tds
 
Lexington 125 said:
Titans in rz- 3 tds

Colts in rz-5 tds 3 fgs

Bucs in rz- 2tds 2 fgs

Patriots (gm 2) in rz- 3 tds
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Your defense is built to stop kc, not the physical run games of titans, colts, pats (even tho they did finally do so the 3rd time), doesn’t surprise me those 3 did well. I think bucs offense def compares closer to kc, 50% is good. Assuming they don’t give up any big play tds Id be pretty confident bills win if they hold kc to 50% td in red zone.
 
2daBank said:
Your defense is built to stop kc, not the physical run games of titans, colts, pats (even tho they did finally do so the 3rd time), doesn’t surprise me those 3 did well. I think bucs offense def compares closer to kc, 50% is good. Assuming they don’t give up any big play tds Id be pretty confident bills win if they hold kc to 50% td in red zone.
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Those were the playoff teams the bills faced and what they did in the redzone! You can't excuse that by saying they are a different style. Or that 50 percent TD would somehow be good. No turnovers points every time. Trust me I've watched every snap this season. I know when they might be in trouble.

KC might come out and pound the run. Who knows. I think both teams move the ball regardless of gameplan. If KC gets up say late third q I could see them trying to bleed the clock. That would be my concern with the over.
 
Another thought the bills got up quick vs the pats and after the pick they march down and score again. Everyone who watches football knew it was over. The pats aren't built to throw all over the place. Buffalo can't take half of kcs playbook away like they did lw
 
Lexington 125 said:
Those were the playoff teams the bills faced and what they did in the redzone! You can't excuse that by saying they are a different style. Or that 50 percent TD would somehow be good. No turnovers points every time. Trust me I've watched every snap this season. I know when they might be in trouble.

KC might come out and pound the run. Who knows. I think both teams move the ball regardless of gameplan. If KC gets up say late third q I could see them trying to bleed the clock. That would be my concern with the over.
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Why wouldn’t it stand to reason power run teams would have more success in red zone vs them than passing teams when they play mostly nickel and have been known to get pushed around by really strong run games? How is holding them to 50% td in RZ not good? It would be best in league over a season. Obviously it ain’t great if kc gets in the red zone every possession but as you said it pretty likely both teams are gonna be moving the ball so just seems to me red zone efficiency could be a huge factor in the outcome, on the season bills offense has scored td’s 65% the time good for 3rd while the d has held opponents to 53% (8th in league). On the other hand kc has scored tds on 62.5% their RZ trips while allowing 57% which 17th. For my money that important, maybe I’m wrong but if you correct that both them are getting into scoring range on majority their drives what happens inside the 20s could be everything far as deciding the winner and the total!!

I think ya’ll have a better run game than kc right now, I’d think either one of them could elect to try bleeding the clock with a lead, if memory serves me right didnt your squad have a lead in last year afc champ? Maybe this time they can lean on run a little if they jump out? both qbs also dangerous on the ground but I think Allen is far more so when it comes to helping the run game on scripted runs, mahomes rarely does that, he don’t have the size Allen does to absorb those hits as a runner.

I really think it truly a coin flip game, reason I love betting mlb is cause I think there a ton of games where you can get plus money on what i believe are coin flips, I’ll happy play heads or tails with anyone if I’m getting +115 per flip!! This feels like that to me so while i won’t be betting a lot on it I’ll happily take some plus money: I’m sure I’ll have more on props tho as lots of guys should hit their yardage numbers in this one.
 
2daBank said:
I think ya’ll have a better run game than kc right now, I’d think either one of them could elect to try bleeding the clock with a lead, if memory serves me right didnt your squad have a lead in last year afc champ? Maybe this time they can lean on run a little if they jump out? both qbs also dangerous on the ground but I think Allen is far more so when it comes to helping the run game on scripted runs, mahomes rarely does that, he don’t have the size Allen does to absorb those hits as a runner.
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KC had a 3 and out on their first drive then muffed a punt. It was a total domination from then on. FWIW the Bills are playing much much better offensively now and in no way do I see them getting blown out.

Yes Allen is better on scripted runs than any qb in the league not named Lamar. Mahomes is very dangerous in this matchup to me for a couple reasons

I don't think the Bills can consistently get to Mahomes with just the front 4.

They'll need to at min keep a safety over the top at all times and Kelce will draw doubles.

If they bring pressure and he shakes loose, he'll be able to run forever. Also if it's a long developing passing play where the Bills can't get home, the cbs no doubt will have their hands so full he can rip off an unsuspecting run. I might check out yds prop for this reason.
 
spottie2935 said:
Bills advance here. Chiefs not rolling into 3 straight superbowls. I get points with a really strong team that has been lined at -10 or more times this season multiple times. Any price >+100 is a done deal for me.
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This makes me feel good. I wonder what the #s are for teams who have been lined high all season then dogged in the playoffs. Can't think of any instances that it's happened off the top of my head
 
Chiefs allowed 15 tds on the ground

Bills have allowed 19

Bills have allowed just 12 passing tds 19 ints beastly.

KC allowed 27 with 15 ints


I will say the KC defense has looked like a completely different animal at home. This paired with how "easy" the over looks is giving me pause with the total. Both teams off blowout wins soaring over the total and it comes out 54.5? Might be overthinking it
 
Lexington 125 said:
KC had a 3 and out on their first drive then muffed a punt. It was a total domination from then on. FWIW the Bills are playing much much better offensively now and in no way do I see them getting blown out.

Yes Allen is better on scripted runs than any qb in the league not named Lamar. Mahomes is very dangerous in this matchup to me for a couple reasons

I don't think the Bills can consistently get to Mahomes with just the front 4.

They'll need to at min keep a safety over the top at all times and Kelce will draw doubles.

If they bring pressure and he shakes loose, he'll be able to run forever. Also if it's a long developing passing play where the Bills can't get home, the cbs no doubt will have their hands so full he can rip off an unsuspecting run. I might check out yds prop for this reason.
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Yea I’m thinking bout both qb rush props depending on the numbers of course. Mahomes was incredibly low/reasonable last week, I think we usually get value on mahomes over rushing in big games cause I think he tends to run more the bigger the game.

Do bills blitz much? I don’t recall seeing them do much of it.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Might have already said this but if the Bills win this game I think they win the SB.
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I think it a pretty good bet whomever wins this game wins the SB. Although titans won’t be a pushover, they a pretty tough team to have to play a week after this game that I’m sure feels like the afc championship to both teams! I was surprised to hear someone told me the NFC is -3 right now? I havnt seen myself but think where I heard it was credible,
 
Lexington 125 said:
Chiefs allowed 15 tds on the ground

Bills have allowed 19

Bills have allowed just 12 passing tds 19 ints beastly.

KC allowed 27 with 15 ints


I will say the KC defense has looked like a completely different animal at home. This paired with how "easy" the over looks is giving me pause with the total. Both teams off blowout wins soaring over the total and it comes out 54.5? Might be overthinking it
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I don’t think you are, I’m incredibly hesitant to play the over. I rather play some kind of over total yardage than over the total, lol. I do feel like kc d has started leaking some oil again down the stretch, can’t help but recall drew lock having 2 fairly long td runs right up the gut while kc defense parted like the Red Sea! Lock not even all that athletic and certainly not fast!!
 
Buffalo are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Kansas City.

Buffalo are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against Kansas City.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City.
 
Teapot9 said:
Apparently he got into with a woman and threw a vacuum at a wall
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Lol, I can’t imagine that keeps him off the field does it? Gotta figure these jacked up meatheads throw lots of shit against walls from time to time! I know I have!!

Funny story bout vacuum cleaner, one time my ex-wife and me were in one our biggest fights ever that prob got closer to physical than ever before (I don’t go there w women) anyways she hit me on back of my bare leg with the hard plastic part the hose extension. Hurt like a Mfer, left a welt. Guess it wasn’t that funny, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Lol, I can’t imagine that keeps him off the field does it? Gotta figure these jacked up meatheads throw lots of shit against walls from time to time! I know I have!!

Funny story bout vacuum cleaner, one time my ex-wife and me were in one our biggest fights ever that prob got closer to physical than ever before (I don’t go there w women) anyways she hit me on back of my bare leg with the hard plastic part the hose extension. Hurt like a Mfer, left a welt. Guess it wasn’t that funny, lol.
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He was visiting his baby mama you know how that shit goes
 
Interesting point from Bet the Board podcast. Other than Brady, Bills have faced these QBs since their bye week:

Tua,
Trveor Lawrence,
Mike White,
Wentz,
Trevor Siemian,
Mac Jones,
Cam Newton,
Matt Ryan and
Zach Wilson
 
bones said:
Interesting point from Bet the Board podcast. Other than Brady, Bills have faced these QBs since their bye week:

Tua,
Trveor Lawrence,
Mike White,
Wentz,
Trevor Siemian,
Mac Jones,
Cam Newton,
Matt Ryan and
Zach Wilson
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So you saying they finally stepping down in competition after that murderers row? Amazing they were able to finish w the 1 pass d against such a formidable list! I see 7 1st round picks! Couple 1st overalls!! Damn near all of them drafted higher than mahomes, this should be a cakewalk!! Lol
 
Bet the Board's pick (they do one a week) is Over 53.5/54

Also said Willie Yag's charge was "damage to property under $1000"
 
I’m not sure wentz threw a pass when colts played them, which is obviously the best way for colts to win.
 
The Sportsbook guy they have on the BTB pod said tickets and money 4 to 1 on bills and he expects it to keep going that way!! He said it 1st time in long time he can remember needing kc in a playoff game!! I sure thought this game would be pretty split, that crazy. He from FanDuel so could have to do with what states FanDuel operates in. They did just open in NY! Lol. This game def gonna be split I gotta believe.
 
2daBank said:
The Sportsbook guy they have on the BTB pod said tickets and money 4 to 1 on bills and he expects it to keep going that way!! He said it 1st time in long time he can remember needing kc in a playoff game!! I sure thought this game would be pretty split, that crazy. He from FanDuel so could have to do with what states FanDuel operates in. They did just open in NY! Lol. This game def gonna be split I gotta believe.
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It’s gonna vary by location. BetMGM has 57% of bets and 2/3 of the money on KC. I dont think one side will take significantly more money than the other in this one, though I definitely see and hear more folks on Buffalo in my own experience
 
Capaholic said:
It’s gonna vary by location. BetMGM has 57% of bets and 2/3 of the money on KC. I dont think one side will take significantly more money than the other in this one, though I definitely see and hear more folks on Buffalo in my own experience
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yea i would def think it pretty split but i have noticed a lot more bills love as well, my old lady even said "it seems like everyone likes the bills" and i never know how much attention she really paying, lol.. . i certainly lean to the plus money cause i think it a coin flip but think i will have much more in props and maybe the over than who wins this game, should be a really good 1!! i havnt really been asking ppl at casino much this week, we usually have a pretty strong KC bias around here so it would shock me if it bills heavy.
 
man everyone likes the over, i'll be the first to say I'm on the under. 54 lotta points, outside 2 pats games bills offense was closer to average than great this year. Chiefs defense been better than the offense most of year and especially their pass d which is a good matchup , chiefs defense way improved from rematch game early in year. Bills defense built to stop this kc d.......bills defense is gonna have to show up better than they did vs brady though. They couldn't stop a crossing route to save their life vs tampa and was pretty surprising.
 
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