ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Would have been a never can be beaten record of most fantasy points scored by a player on 1 play, 20+ points
49ers vs. Chiefs Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
- Status
Would have been a never can be beaten record of most fantasy points scored by a player on 1 play, 20+ points
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
The schedule was harder but as the season went along, most of the teams were with 2nd and 3rd string QB's and other players out. Thats why its important to look at who played. Bengals are a big example who were picked to win the division, but crumbled to last place with injuries.
Whales begin targeting 49ers with $1 million Super Bowl bet vs. Chiefs
Whales are swimming around the Super Bowl as Caesars Sportsbook reported a $1 million wager on the 49ers moneyline (-120).nypost.com
Only 16% of the bets on Niners ML based on MGMSportsbook
Must be Vivek.
Can't really worry about the line. Not in the super bowl. If you're worried about the line that means you're not confident in your bet.
It will also even out more by game time. Whales lose too. This is the publics year because of the storyline.
Don't over think it. Super bowl winners almost always have a fairy tale feel to it. Brady, Bettis, LA in LA, Cowboys dynasty, Montana/Rice. It's predictable this year. Especially if you see Taylor Swift in attendance after having a concert in Japan not even 24 hours prior and flying back to get a seat next to Pelosi and Newsome.
It will also even out more by game time. Whales lose too. This is the publics year because of the storyline.
Don't over think it. Super bowl winners almost always have a fairy tale feel to it. Brady, Bettis, LA in LA, Cowboys dynasty, Montana/Rice. It's predictable this year. Especially if you see Taylor Swift in attendance after having a concert in Japan not even 24 hours prior and flying back to get a seat next to Pelosi and Newsome.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt after that historic Atlanta meltdown but it happened again. They were beating the Chiefs by 10 with 12 minutes to go in the 4th quarter yet lost by 11. I said right then and there that Shanahan cannot be trusted in big game situations. They barely made it past GB and Det for crying out loud.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
The reason why the 49ers will lose to the Chiefs in the SB again is because San Fran still believes in running the football first. That philosophy won't work in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Both teams were arguably better than San Francisco. Both blew it and it was more that both beat themselves rather than the Niners. San Francisco a 4 leaf clover and that's the only way they win this game.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Shows you how jaded this society is. Destiny and all the things you described…..
A Mr. Irrelevant is QBing a team to the SB and it’s only a story for “diehards” I guess.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
San Fran finished last (32nd) in the NFL regular season in pass attempts. To put it in perspective, the Ravens we're 30th.
RetroRetrovk
Pretty much a regular
Remember Patriots after 9-11?
SF should rush 0 players. You can't sack Mahomes and if you get close they get a free 15 yards every time.
In all seriousness, as has been mentioned in this thread ...... Mahomes and Reid vs Purdy and Shannahan is hard to overcome even though the other parts heavily favor the 49ers. Chiefs defense is really good too and doesn't get the praise they deserve.
A loss by Mahomes here would be akin to the Brady loss vs Eli, I guess.
Word on the street is you have to be vaccinated and lobotomized to attend the game, and not in that order, obviously.
SF should rush 0 players. You can't sack Mahomes and if you get close they get a free 15 yards every time.
In all seriousness, as has been mentioned in this thread ...... Mahomes and Reid vs Purdy and Shannahan is hard to overcome even though the other parts heavily favor the 49ers. Chiefs defense is really good too and doesn't get the praise they deserve.
A loss by Mahomes here would be akin to the Brady loss vs Eli, I guess.
Word on the street is you have to be vaccinated and lobotomized to attend the game, and not in that order, obviously.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
I do remember the Patriots after 9/11. They beat the Rams in the Super Bowl at a time when running teams won the SB. That's not how you win the Lombardi trophy in today's NFL.
RetroRetrovk
Pretty much a regular
I more meant the storyline aspect. 0 offenseive and 0 defensive penalties scored against them
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
They literally lost a SB because they stopped running the ball against the Chiefs.
And they have the leading passer rated QB in the league.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
I think the lines in this big games are massive angles.
Michigan > Washington as a huge public dog.
Georgia > TCU, again a massive dog.
Chiefs Eagles a true coin flip.
Bengals Rams a coin flip.
Chiefs Bucs a massive Chiefs popular play.
Can’t remember the last time the books took a bath on the SB. Maybe Pats Rams? Forget the split there…
The story only needed to go to the SB. The story ends in Vegas.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
When that game got tight it was Mahomes making the plays, not Garoppolo.
And when is the last time the QB with the #1 passer rating won the SB?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'd really like to know how much these books have tied up in SF futures, obviously they're enticing KC wagers for a reason much bigger than just SB Sunday wagers
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Agree. Trust factor when the lights are the brightest is a concern if you’re backing the 9ers. Overall I think the 9ers have the better roster except Mahomes balances out any imbalances.
Without a combination of good fortune and blunders by 2 NFC teams still ascending, the 9ers aren’t here. If you start with the divisionals, KC has beaten 2 teams on the road who have been pushing for a Super Bowl the last few years.
There's been something very off about 9ers defense. They’ve been playing zone which is a recipe for disaster vs Mahomes & Kelce. Bosa hasn’t been the impact player he was. Chase Young isn’t the player we thought he was. Reid with time to prepare is about as dangerous as they come. Spags will take away the run and put this game on the strength of his defense.
Having said all this, if the 9ers are clicking on both sides, they’re capable of doing what the Raiders did to KC Christmas Day. Coin flip game.
No, the story ends with a proposal after the game.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Gross.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
If the 9ers can break the script, end the story, restore balance to pre-pandemic matrix, tie for 6th ship, in the biggest most watched game of all time… they may eclipse the sport as a franchise itself.
Tall ask to break the script though…
Would be Brock Lesnar > Tanker.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I hope so man
Dvoa accounts for injuries? I didn't think so.
Dvoa is just fancy anyways. Ravens proved that.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
It looks like DVOA would have been great for predicting how good teams were back when it was a running league but it looks pretty worthless in todays passing league.
Correct imo.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I don't even know what DVOA stands for without looking it up. Guess it's similar to WAR in baseball?
Scopey uses it a ton for his fantasy stuff, I assume it's a big deal for individual performances since it's such a big thing.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I think it does, yes.
DVOA is a tool, just like everything else. It is/was designed as a way to predict a team's record, it is NOT meant to predict individual games.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
How does that DVOA chart posted earlier not have one team that won the SB between 1998-2022 on it? That's says everything.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Explain.
Maybe you're not sure what goes into it, because this comment doesn't seem to make sense. Why would the type of league matter when it's calculated the way it is?
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Because their DVOA rating didn't rank high enough for them to be on the list.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
Then it's pretty much fucking useless if it hasnt picked a winner since 1996.:badass: I dare say its completely outdated.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Okay.
All I was doing is answering your question.
Also, what does "it hasn't picked a winner since 1996" even mean? The DVOA stat isn't intended to pick a winner, so this comment makes even less sense.
Pretty sure I know about Dvoa buddy. I use it to cap some things. I actually subscribed to football outsiders in the early days. It came at a time when the league was run heavy... And I personally don't think it has evolved as the league has. It's just my opinion. I said imo in the quote. Just in case you aren't sure what that means, it means "in my opinion"
Now, I know you like to argue with me until paint dries with every single topic we disagree on, but I'm not in the mood for it. Go ahead and have the last word, I know that's how you like it.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
And yes I know what imo means. Maybe you need help with the word “explain.” I simply asked you to explain your opinion. Is that frowned upon now?
Also, knowing the guy who put the stat together and the team that works with him, it doesn’t make sense that the stat wouldn’t have “evolved” with the league. Or else, your opinion is that they’re not competent enough to update their algorithms and change with the times? Could be, that’s why I’m asking (as symbolized by the question mark at the end of the sentence).
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
Or else, your opinion is that they’re not competent enough to update their algorithms and change with the times?
When you have the Ravens as the best team since the 85 Bears and they only score one TD at home in the conference final and fail to even reach the super bowl, then its quite obvious theyre not competent enough to change.
When you have the Ravens as the best team since the 85 Bears and they only score one TD at home in the conference final and fail to even reach the super bowl, then its quite obvious theyre not competent enough to change.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
I’m also not understanding this portion…if it came at a time when the league was run heavy how can that also be the reason that teams from 1998-2020 got left out? Because the reason given that they were left out is that they were too run heavy at that time.
Can you see how this doesn’t make sense? Or am I misunderstanding what you’re saying?
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Any maybe we’re talking about two different things here…but if they have more recent teams ranked highly, isn’t that proof they’ve changed with the times? We were just told that the stat was created when the league was more run heavy. How would pass heavy teams be on the top list then if they didn’t evolve?
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
So right there next to the MVP. Good point.
C
C-70 Blues
Guest
I cant tell if youre being sarcastic.
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
Here's a flashback when I bet on Georgia in the Championship game. Most of the capping factors are the same as what I used on this years SB with SF&KC>
Thought you would like this after reading about your feeling betting against Bama all those years...which is what you feel now about betting against Mahomes....
Hope to give you some insight why Im on SF next week. I already posted the KC win from last years SB here in the CTG forum today..
GL
My write up Below from back then,,
Easy Win Last Night with Kansas State
The seasons final play. Georgia - Alabama.
After going 24-9 in the bowls- here is the Biggest of all.
This entire analysis is based on no Covid issues changing the forecast. If things change before game day, this may or may not - become a different play.
No trends are considered. They are worthless as always to me. Only todays team with todays players matter.
Georgia -3 over Alabama
Georgia ML -145.
The Common opponent is important here as always. Statistical Advantages are also relevant, with a careful analysis on those stats.
Winning teams can pay a hundred games against each other and the best team doesn't always win.
Georgia lost SU to 6-point underdog Alabama in the Conference Championship game. The game was lost in the 2nd qtr when Alabama scored 24 points.
The Georgia run game was shut down to 109 yds on 30 carries. That is the main reason they lost offensively - with the defense being clueless for the first half. I'll explain later here.
The two interceptions were damaging, but the last one in the fourth qtr for a TD made no difference in the final outcome.
Georgia must be able to run the ball.. When that happens, the opponent gets fewer chances to score. It also puts the opponent in a pass mode to catch up.
When Alabama took the lead, Saban was smart to know that the Bulldogs would no longer be able to stop them.
Georgia was the top run defense in the country so Saban decided to see if they could pass on them and it worked. Georgia was unprepared for that and never made the adjustment to it and lost.
This game will be different - as changes will likely be made to shut down the pass first and the run second. Georgia has the better defense and will make that change. Many of the passes that Bama had were long gainers. Georgia needs to fix that and then win the game.
In common opponents, Georgia was better against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn than how Alabama played them. The scores were closer for the Bama games while Georgia won easily and shut down all three opponents.
The Point spread was over priced for Alabama on all three games because of betting public on Alabama.
Validation for that is recognized as well, because only Florida was played by Bama before Georgia played them. But Georgia played at a neutral site against Florida for the game.
Scores for Alabama were:
Bama (-14). 31-29 over @ Florida
Bama (-21). 24-22 iver @ Auburn
Bama (-21). 42-35 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home and 2 away.
Scores for Georgia were:
Bulldogs (-14) 34-7. over Florida (N)
Bulldogs (-14.5) 34-10 over @Auburn
Bulldogs (-16.5) 37-0 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home game. 1 away and 1. Neutral site.
Now we get to Georgia and the Alabama spread and SU loss in the Conference playoff game..
Georgia was a 6 point favorite and lost SU as explained above.
The spread was based on the public over paying on common opponents in the earlier matchups as shown above.
The playoff game was a neutral site game.
Obviously with Georgia out-scoring all three opponents that Alabama played - the line was based on those scoring advantages and put into play on the playoff game being at a neutral site. Thats all true and correct.
In statistical advantages - Georgia should have won the game by more than 7 points, but lost.
Knowing that the line was realistic to the potential outcome and since Vegas has the betting history in their favor to justify the spread to their advantage, they were counting on a win.
Regular season scoring against all opponents was Georgia 39-10.
Alabama scoring was 43-20. A natural difference when is subtracted from the other is @6 points.
Georgia was better on defense by 10 points, but Bama was better by 4 points on offense. Result Georgia better by 6.
But in these 3 games against common opponents, Georgia was far better with averages at. 35-6.
Alabama was 32-28. The main difference was the defense by Georgia. That defense didnt play like that against Alabama just a few weeks ago.
This game is where its at now. Strictly the defense and that's where the adjustment must come from. The offense will take car of itself when the defense plays the way its capable of playing.
I doubt that Bama could ever play defense any better than it did in the last game - with Georgia only scoring 24 points, - but Im sure that the Georgia defense can fix everything this time to prevent Alabama from reaching that score again, or anywhere near it.
In addition - If Georgia removes the interceptions for this game, they will drive the ball and continue to score more.
As we speak - its noted that 63% are on the SU Dog-winner again, all because of that last game. The Public is all over Alabama.
Vegas just did what their betting history advantage gives them. They feel that they still have their best interest on Georgia and moved the spread down to 3 points from 6 in the previous game - with all the masses on Bama.
They just put 3 more points in their advantage.
They are still basing the spread by the public being on Bama. and they are keeping the public there - even though they gave themselves a better advantageof 3 points without losing any Bama backers on that side.
The season-long points scored are the original factors the line was set on in the last game. Now The public is banking all the money on the upset that day -again!.
All the public see's now - is a 41-24 win by the dog who is a dog again.
Finally Looking at the last 2 teams that played Georgia and Alabama, (Michigan and Cincinnati), there is no doubt what team was better.
Cincy couldn't beat Michigan at anytime and Georgia dominated Michigan - just the way they're are going to play Alabama for this game on Monday,
Georgia must focus on the pass, as Alabama was one of the worst bowl teams with only a 3.6 yds per rush average vs bowlers.
The Georgia defensive line will be good enough to cover the run - and that gives Georgia the chance to play 5 DB's against the pass. Something they didnt do until the second half in the last game.
In the Playoff game for the SEC Championship, Alabama scored on its last four possessions of the 1st half. Alabama produced 365 yards, including Young's 286 passing -- an SEC title-game first-half record. That wont happen again.
My Plays are Georgia ML -145
Georgia -3.
Looking For Win #25!
GL to all. We had a great Bowl-Run together.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
LA in LA has such a nice ring to it! I agree. Sometimes there is a fairytale feel to it and at the moment Tay Tay & Travy is the feel good storyline.
Right, on top of that, Stafford getting a ring after being with a dormant franchise for a decade +.
I guess I'm more of a feel and intangibles capper which is why I bet live a lot. QB is always numero uno for myself pregame. Then during the game I watch for the trench play and momentum. You can feel momentum a lot. 90% of lions fans, especially the die hards will tell you, here we go again after that helmet catch. You knew Niners were coming back. Reno was smart enough to think during the moment. I was still shell shocked choking on my nachos.
i still thought the lions would win - maybe i'm mistaken, but i feel when those big comebacks happen the favorite usually finds a way to regain control at the end and hold on.....usually god knows the better team should win......it did not happen
Yes, usually that's the case, I think. The Lions though, usually are the exception to the rule in big games. I think their inexperience showed big time. Young team in the big lights. San Francisco has been in the conference finals so many times in recent years. Just a terrible gut wrenching loss as a fan. I guess I have to be encouraged they can compete with the big boys or else I'd have no faith.
- Status
Similar threads
