Week 9 in the FCS

[s--k]

Thursday, October 26

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile
LIU at CCSU	7:00pm	CBSSN
SC State at NC Central	7:30pm	ESPNU

Friday, October 27

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile
Brown at Penn	7:00pm	ESPNU

Saturday, October 28

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV/Mobile
Duquesne at Sacred Heart	12:00pm	ESPN+
Stonehill at Wagner	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Howard at Delaware State	12:00pm	ESPN+
Tennessee Tech at Robert Morris	12:00pm	ESPN+
Columbia at Yale	12:00pm	ESPN+
Lafayette at Georgetown	12:30pm	ESPN+
Merrimack at Saint Francis U.	1:00pm	NEC Front Row
Holy Cross at Fordham	1:00pm	SNY/ESPN+
Bucknell at Colgate	1:00pm	ESPN+
Stetson at Drake	1:00pm	ESPN+
Valparaiso at Butler	1:00pm	FloFootball
UAlbany at Maine	1:00pm	FloFootball
Princeton at Cornell	1:00pm	ESPN+
Monmouth at William & Mary	1:00pm	FloFootball/Cox
Northern Iowa at Illinois State	1:00pm	ESPN+
New Hampshire at Rhode Island	1:00pm	FloFootball
Chattanooga at VMI	1:30pm	ESPN+
UT Martin at Gardner-Webb	1:30pm	ESPN+
ETSU at Furman	2:00pm	ESPN+
Marist at St. Thomas	2:00pm	Midco Sports Plus / FOX 9+
Morgan State at Norfolk State	2:00pm	ESPN network
North Carolina A&T at Hampton	2:00pm	FloFootball
Stony Brook at Villanova	2:00pm	FloFootball
South Dakota State at South Dakota	2:00pm	ESPN+
Missouri State at Youngstown State	2:00pm	ESPN+
Indiana State at North Dakota	2:00pm	ESPN+/Midco Sports Two
Mercer at Western Carolina	2:30pm	ESPN+
Southeast Missouri at Nicholls	3:00pm	ESPN+
Bethune-Cookman at Grambling State	3:00pm	HBCU GO
Lincoln (CA) at Kennesaw State	3:00pm	ESPN+
Jackson State at UAPB	3:00pm	ESPN network
Lindenwood at Tennessee State	3:00pm	ESPN+
MVSU at Alcorn State	3:00pm	Braves All-Access
The Citadel at Samford	3:00pm	ESPN+
Texas A&M-Commerce at HCU	3:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Colorado at Montana	3:00pm	ESPN+/Scripps
Abilene Christian at Southern Utah	3:00pm	ESPN+
Campbell at Richmond	3:30pm	FloFootball
Murray State at North Dakota State	3:30pm	ESPN+/ABC ND
Alabama State vs Alabama A&M (in Birmingham, AL)	3:30pm	ESPN+
Prairie View A&M at Florida A&M	4:00pm	ESPNU
UIW at Lamar	4:00pm	ESPN+
UC Davis at Northern Arizona	4:00pm	ESPN+
Southern Illinois at Western Illinois	4:00pm	ESPN+
Montana State at Idaho	4:00pm	ESPN+/Scripps/MTN TV
North Alabama at Austin Peay	4:00pm	ESPN+
Eastern Washington at Portland State	4:00pm	ESPN+
Delaware at Towson	4:00pm	FloFootball
Dartmouth at Harvard	4:00pm	ESPN+/NESN
Bryant at Charleston Sou.	4:00pm	ESPN+
Tarleton State at Central Arkansas	5:00pm	ESPN+
Texas Southern at Southern	5:00pm	Jaguar SN
Morehead State at San Diego	5:00pm	ESPN+
Presbyterian at Davidson	7:00pm	TV TBA
Eastern Kentucky at Utah Tech	8:00pm	ESPN+
Northwestern State at McNeese	8:00pm	ESPN+
Idaho State at Sacramento State	9:00pm	CW31/ESPN+

 

[s--k]

BIG SKY

FARMINGTON, Utah (Oct. 22, 2023) — For the second straight week, Big Sky football had a national spotlight as No. 2 Montana State won a late-night showdown against No. 3 Sacramento State on ESPN2.

In a battle that pitted last season's Big Sky co-champions, Montana State earned a 42-30 victory over Sacramento State as the Bobcats posted their fifth-straight game with over 300 yards rushing.

The Hornets had cut the deficit to 28-24 in the fourth quarter, until Julius Davis hurdled his way over a defender to flip momentum for good in the favor of the Bobcats.

The Top 10 road win was Montana State's second of 2023, with the Bobcats slated to play two more on the year as they venture to No. 10 Idaho next week and No. 9 Montana to close out the season.

Another impressiver road victory was Idaho State's 38-24 win at Portland State, as the Bengals snapped their 17-game losing skid on the road.

The Bengal quarterback duo of Jordan Cooke and Hunter Hays combined for nearly 300 yards passing and over 100 yards on the ground, as the pair scored four of Idaho State's touchdowns to down the Vikings.

Eastern Washington and Cal Poly each won their games this past Saturday at home, as the Eagles got back into the win column with a 31-23 victory over Weber State while the Mustangs won their first Big Sky game of the season with a 24-17 decision over Northern Colorado.

Follow all things #BigSkyFB on Twitter and Instagram at @BigSkyFB. Follow the Big Sky Conference (@BigSkyConf) on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Blue Sky, and TikTok for all the latest news around the league and use the hashtag #ExperienceElevated.

Big Sky Football Week 8 Scores
Saturday, Oct. 21
FCS Rankings: Stats Perform/AFCA

Idaho State 38, #NR/RV Portland State 24
Read Full Idaho State Recap

#RV/NR Eastern Washington 31, #RV/NR Weber State 23
Read Full EWU Recap

Cal Poly 24, Northern Colorado 17
Read Full Cal Poly Recap

#2/2 Montana State 42, #3/4 Sacramento State 30
Read Full MSU Recap

BIG SOUTH / OVC

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 28, TENNESSEE TECH 3 | BOX SCORE
Ryan Flournoy caught six passes for 203 yards and a touchdown to lead Southeast Missouri (3-4, 3-0) to its first road win of the season, a 28-3 victory over Tennessee Tech (2-5, 0-2) Saturday afternoon at Tucker Stadium. Flournoy went over 200 receiving yards for the second time in his career as the Redhawks picked up their ninth-straight conference win dating back to the 2021 campaign.

EASTERN ILLINOIS 25, BRYANT 24 (OT) | BOX SCORE
Pierce Holley rushed for three scores and the crucial two-point conversion as Eastern Illinois beat Bryant 25-24 in overtime on Saturday afternoon at O'Brien Field. Holley found the end zone in the first quarter, second quarter and overtime periods. He then rushed in on the two-point conversion in overtime to hand EIU the win.

#17 UT MARTIN 17, CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 0 | BOX SCORE
The vaunted University of Tennessee at Martin defense once again flexed its muscles this afternoon as the Skyhawks shut out Big South-OVC Football Association rival Charleston Southern for a 17-0 victory at Hardy Graham Stadium. The shutout was UT Martin’s first since Nov. 18, 2017 at Tennessee Tech (won 24-0). It marked the Skyhawks’ first home shutout since Sept. 15, 2011 (63-0 against Union College) while UT Martin blanked its first home conference opponent since a 37-0 result against Tennessee State on Nov. 13, 2010. The No. 17 ranked Skyhawks (6-1, 3-0 Big South-OVC) extended their winning streak to six games after limiting the visiting Buccaneers to 242 yards of total offense.

GARDNER-WEBB 35, EASTERN KENTUCKY 32 | BOX SCORE
Jayden Brown rushed for 142 yards, including an 88-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter, as Gardner-Webb topped Eastern Kentucky for the second-straight season. Brown averaged 9.5 yards on 15 carries and also caught a pair of passes. Quarterback Jaylen King passed for and ran for a score as well for the Runnin' Bulldogs.

TENNESSEE STATE 54, LINCOLN 0 | BOX SCORE
Five different players scored touchdowns, led by four scores from Jordan Gant, as Tennessee State rolled past 54-0 on Saturday afternoon inside Nissan Stadium. The win improved Tennessee State's record to 5-2 on the season. The shutout marks TSU's first since they beat Eastern Illinois 28-0 on October 23, 2021, while the 54-point margin of victory now ranks second in TSU histroy.

CAA

Road teams went 4-3 in CAA Football action on Saturday as Delaware, Richmond, Towson and New Hampshire recorded double-digit victories. UAlbany, Elon and Campbell protected their home fields in a high-scoring Week 8.

Richmond 33, North Carolina A&T 10
Box Score

Richmond’s defense held North Carolina A&T to 145 total yards and forced four turnovers, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns, as the Spiders (5-3, 4-1 CAA) picked up a 33-10 road win over the Aggies (1-6, 0-4 CAA). UR’s Jabril Hayes had a 48-yard pick six in the first half and Aaron Banks capped the scoring with a 32-yard pick six in the fourth quarter. The Spiders also reached the end zone on a 15-yard return of a blocked punt by Quintarius Jefferies.

The Spiders never trailed after a 2-yard TD catch by Quanye Veney on the opening drive of the game. Hayes’ pick six pushed the advantage to 17-0 before A&T got on the board on a 91-yard kickoff return for a TD by Taymon Cooke, which was his third of the season. Jefferies return put UR ahead 23-7 before A&T closed the half with a 28-yard Owen Daffer field goal. UR’s defense pitched a second-half shutout and closed the scoring with Banks’ pick six. Savon Smith ran for 80 yards to lead the Richmond offense, while Kevin White rushed for 66 yards for A&T. BJ Turner contributed 13 tackles and 3.0 TFL’s for the Aggies’ defense.

Delaware 47, Hampton 3
Box Score

Delaware (6-1, 4-0 CAA) sprinted out to a 31-0 lead and cruised to a 47-3 victory over Hampton (3-4, 1-3 CAA) to extend its winning streak to five. The Blue Hens excelled in all phases of the game, piling up 522 yards of offense, holding the Pirates to 216 yards, and scoring a TD on an 82-yard punt return by Jourdan Townsend.

An 8-yard TD run by Marcus Yarns on Delaware’s first drive of the game made it 7-0 and Townsend doubled the margin with his punt return. Scoring runs of 4 yards by Yarns and 18 yards by quarterback Zach Marker gave the Hens a 31-0 advantage with 5:32 left in the first half. Hampton got on the board on a 30-yard Brian Csehoski field goal, but Marker closed the first-half scoring with a 10-yard TD pass to Joshua Youngblood. James Collins completed the scoring with 27-yard reception in the fourth quarter. Marker threw for 239 yards in his first career start for the UD offense, while Dillon Trainer had eight tackles defensively. For Hampton, Tymere Robinson rushed for a career-high 119 yards and Mason King recorded a game-high nine tackles and 2.0 TFL’s.

Elon 28, Monmouth 26
Box Score

In a hard-fought game that featured six scoring plays of over 40 yards, Elon (4-4, 4-1 CAA) held off Monmouth (3-4, 2-2 CAA), 28-26. The fireworks started in the opening quarter as Elon quarterback Matthew Downing threw scoring passes of 59 yards to Chandler Brayboy and 41 yards to Jordan Bonner. Monmouth cut the deficit on a 43-yard TD reception by Dymere Miller, but a 65-yard scoring catch by Johncarlos Miller II moved the Phoenix on top 21-6 at halftime. The Hawks pulled within 21-19 in the third quarter as Miller found the end zone on a 68-yard reverse and Sone Ntoh had a 2-yard TD run. A 41-yard Brayboy TD run on an end around extended Elon’s lead to 28-19 early in the fourth period, but Monmouth answered again with a 12-yard Josh Derry TD catch with 1:29 to go. Elon was able to run out most of the clock and got a stop on a final MU play.

Downing finished 14-of-20 passing for 282 yards and 3 TD’s, while Brayboy had three catches for 96 yards. Caleb Curtain had five tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery for the Phoenix defense. For Monmouth, Miller had 11 receptions for 146 yards and a TD and Jaden Shirden ran for 110 yards.

Towson 34, William & Mary 24\
Box Score

Towson (3-4, 2-2 CAA) rallied from a 14-point halftime deficit to knock off #12 William & Mary (4-3, 2-2 CAA), 34-24. The Tribe built a 17-3 advantage on a 1-yard Martin Lucas TD run and an 8-yard catch by Hollis Mathis, before the Tigers reeled off 31 unanswered points in the second half. Third quarter TD runs by Nathan Kent (1 yard) and Devin Matthews (10 yards) evened the game at 17-17. A 24-yard Keegan Vaughan field goal midway through the fourth quarter put Towson on top, and the Tigers put the game away on scoring passes of 53 and 1 yard from Kent to tight end Carter Runyon. The second score was set up when Rodney Roane, Jr. forced a fumble on a sack that was recovered by Jesus Gibbs.

Kent was 19-of-28 passing for 188 yards and 2 TD’s, with Runyon making seven grabs for 92 yards. Matthews ran for a game-high 117 yards on 20 carries. Roane, Jr. had two sacks for a Towson defense that shut out the Tribe for a span of 42 minutes from early in the second quarter to late in the fourth. For W&M, Malachi Imoh rushed for 104 yards and Hollis Mathis caught five passes for 66 yards and 2 TD’s.

UAlbany 35, Rhode Island 10
Box Score

UAlbany (5-3, 3-1 CAA) used a balanced attack to pile up 540 yards of offense as the Great Danes topped Rhode Island (4-4, 2-3 CAA), 35-10. Reese Poffenbarger passed for 324 yards and four touchdowns, two of which went to Julian Hicks, who had seven receptions for 188 yards. The Great Danes also had a pair of 100-yard rushers as Griffin Woodell had 115 on 16 carries and Faysal Aden added 100 on 17 attempts.

A 2-yard TD run by Woodell and a 10-yard TD catch by Hicks made it 14-0 after one quarter. UAlbany broke the game open in the second quarter on TD passes of 85 yards to Hicks and 83 yards to Brevin Easton that upped the lead to 28-3 at halftime. In the final quarter, the Great Danes got a 4-yard scoring reception from Ian Renninger before URI found the end zone on a 6-yard Jaden Griffin run. Dylan Kelly had 10 tackles and an interception for a UA defense that held URI to 311 yards. URI quarterback Kasim Hill passed for 261 yards, with Kahtero Summers making eight catches for 92 yards. Evan Stewart had a game-high 11 tackles.

New Hampshire 45, Stony Brook 14
Box Score

Max Brosmer passed for 335 yards and four touchdowns and scored another TD on a fake field goal as New Hampshire (4-3, 2-2 CAA) picked up a 45-14 win at Stony Brook (0-7, 0-5 CAA). The Wildcats struck early on a 54-yard TD catch by Joey Corcoran, but the Seawolves answered with a 7-yard scoring run by Roland Dempster. The Wildcats pushed their lead to 24-7 midway through the second quarter as Brosmer had TD passes of five yards to Colby Ramshaw and 23 yards to Dylan Laube. SBU trimmed the deficit on a 98-yard TD pass from Casey Case to Jayce Freeman, but Brosmer’s 9-yard run on a fake field goal put UNH up 31-14 halftime. The Wildcats added a 57-yard Caleb Burke TD catch and a 7-yard scoring run by Laube in the second half.

Laube had 42 yards rushing and 57 receiving, while Corcoran finished with four catches for 76 yards. Duncan Moreland had seven tackles and a fumble recovery for the UNH defense. For SBU, Case was 18-of-29 passing for 255 yards and a TD. Freeman had 115 receiving yards and freshman Anthony Johnson had nine catches for 101 yards. De’Aundre Cruz had 10 tackles and 2.0 TFL’s.

Campbell 34, Maine 28
Box Score

Hajj-Malik Williams passed for 242 yards and 2 TD’s and Lamagea McDowell added 114 yards and 2 TD’s on the ground as Campbell (4-3, 3-2 CAA) held off a furious Maine (2-6, 1-4 CAA) comeback for a 34-28 victory. Quarterback Derek Robertson had a huge day for the Black Bears, completing 36-of-52 passes for 503 yards and 4 TD’s. Joe Gillette made six catches for 135 yards and Jamie Lamson had five receptions for 71 yards and 2 TD’s.

Maine went up 7-0 on an 11-yard Lamson reception, but Campbell responded with 28 unanswered points. McDowell had scoring runs of 1 and 7 yards, Jasiah Provillon had a 5-yard TD catch and Chris McKay ran in from 5 yards to put the Camels ahead by 21 at halftime. The teams traded TD’s in the third quarter with a 26-yard catch by Lamson and a 33-yard reception by CU’s Jason Kelsey. In the fourth quarter, scoring passes of 33 and 18 yards to Rohan Jones brought the Black Bears within six with 6:12 to go, but the Camels held on for the win when Trevon Booker picked off a pass with 2:02 remaining. Buggs Brown had 10 tackles and a sack for the Maine defense, while C.J. Tillman had 10 stops and a forced fumble for the Camels.

IVY

PRINCETON, N.J. – In the first weekend of Ivy-only competition Penn, Princeton, Cornell and Dartmouth picked up big Ivy League football wins.

With the results from Week 6, there is currently a five-way tie atop the league standings consisting of today’s winners and No. 17 Harvard at 2-1. Despite their setbacks today Brown and Yale are just a game behind at 1-2 in league play.

PENN 27, YALE 17
12 p.m. // New Haven, Conn. // Yale Bowl

• Penn (5-1, 2-1 Ivy) receiver Jared Richardson had a record day, as the Quakers topped Yale (3-3, 1-2 Ivy) by a score of 27-17.
• Richardson had a program record 17 catches – the most by an Ivy since 2012 (Tellef Lundevall, Brown) – for 191 yards and a touchdown. His 17 receptions also marks a single game high in the FCS this season. Quarterback Aidan Sayin passed for a career high 364 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 33-for-48 passing. Linebacker Jack Fairman posted a team-high 10 tackles.
• Yale linebacker Joseph Vaughn notched a game high 12 tackles, including three for a loss.

PRINCETON 21, #17 HARVARD 14
1 p.m. // Princeton, N.J. // Powers Field at Princeton Stadium

• Princeton (3-3, 2-1 Ivy) kept itself in the Ivy title race with a 21-14 win over No. 17 Harvard (5-1, 2-1 Ivy). The Crimson erased a 14-0 deficit to even the score at 14 apiece, but the Tigers used a late score to secure the win.
• Princeton quarterback Blake Stenstrom passed for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He connected with Connor Hulstein from 10 yards out for the game-winning score with 1:28 left. Linebacker Ozzie Nicholas led the team with 10 tackles and had a sack.
• Harvard defensive lineman Thor Griffith and safety Garrett Sharp each had eight tackles. Griffith had 1.5 tackles for a loss.

CORNELL 36, BROWN 14
1 p.m. // Ithaca, N.Y. // Schoellkopf Field

• Cornell (3-3, 2-1 Ivy) ditched its three-game losing skid by pulling away from Brown (3-3, 1-2 Ivy), 36-14.
• Big Red quarterback Jameson Wang was 27-for-39 through the air for a career high 330 yards and two touchdowns. Wang connected with nine different targets with Nicholas Laboy (87), Samuel Musungu (75) and Doryn Smith (74) each having more than 70 receiving yards. Cornell had three interceptions, including a 55-yard pick six from Paul Lewis III.
• Brown linebacker Ethan Royer posted a game-high nine tackles, including one behind the line of scrimmage.

DARTMOUTH 20, COLUMBIA 9
1:30 p.m. // Hanover, N.H. // Memorial Field

• Dartmouth (3-3, 2-1 Ivy) bested Columbia (2-4, 0-3 Ivy) at home 20-9.
• The Big Green’s special teams accounted for 13 points. Patrick Campbell blocked a punt and recovered it in the endzone for a touchdown in the first quarter. Kicker Owen Zalc connected on both of his field goal attempts.
• Columbia quarterback Joe Green threw for 239 yards and added a rushing touchdown. His top target through the air was JJ Jenkins, who had five catches for 94 yards.

MEAC

Thursday, October 19, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Thursday 10/19/2023	North Carolina Central 16	Morgan State 10	Final	Baltimore, Md. (Conf.)	Box Score

Saturday, October 21, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 10/21/2023	Norfolk State 23	Howard 27	Final	Washington, D.C. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	South Carolina State 35	Delaware State 7	Final	Dover, Del. (Conf.)	Box Score

 

[s--k]

MVFC

Saturday, October 21, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 10/21/2023	South Dakota 17	Indiana State 3	Final	Terre Haute, IN (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	Illinois State 38	Youngstown State 41	Final	Youngstown, Ohio (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	South Dakota State 17	Southern Illinois 10	Final	Carbondale, IL (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	Murray State 24	Missouri State 28	Final	Springfield (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	Western Illinois 7	North Dakota State 52	Final	Fargo, N.D. (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	North Dakota 0	Northern Iowa 27	Final	Cedar Falls, Iowa (Conf.)	Box Score

NEC

The first full weekend of Northeast Conference (NEC) football was a thrilling one. Duquesne held off a furious Saint Francis U comeback to secure its spot on top of the league standings with a perfect 3-0 record. Merrimack continues to climb up the rankings as the Warriors pitched a shutout at LIU to improve to 3-1 in conference play. Stonehill got back on track with a thrilling double overtime home victory over Sacred Heart, while Central Connecticut put its first notch in the win column in league play after defeating Wagner at home.

Click here for Boxscores / Statistics
MERRIMACK 39, LIU 0
The NEC’s top defense pitched a shutout for the second time this season — and the first time against a conference opponent since joining the league in 2019 — on Saturday as Merrimack (4-3, 3-1 NEC) posted its third-straight win by way of a 39-0 decision at LIU (1-6, 1-2 NEC). Junior Malakai Anthony threw for three scores for his first his first career multi-touchdown game, while sophomore Donovan Wadley, who was on the receiving end of two of those scores (83 yards, 40 yards), also returned a kickoff 90 yards for a touchdown to pace the Warriors.

CENTRAL CONNECTICUT 17, WAGNER 3
Sophomore quarterback Matt Jenner and junior wide receiver Isiah Williams hooked up two times in the opening half to lead Central Connecticut (3-4, 1-2 NEC) to a 17-3 road win at Wagner (2-5, 2-2 NEC) on Saturday. Jenner finished the game 20-of-29 with 236 yards and zero interceptions for the Blue Devils, who received a strong defensive performance in their first NEC victory of the season.

DUQUESNE 38, SAINT FRANCIS U 35
Led by a junior quarterback Darius Perrantes’ third three-touchdown performance, Duquesne (4-3, 3-0 NEC) survived a furious Saint Francis U (2-5, 2-2 NEC) comeback bid to remain undefeated in NEC play with a thrilling 38-35 win on the Bluff on Saturday. With the Dukes leading, 38-14, the Red Flash rallied in the final quarter with 21 points and had an opportunity to draw the two teams even on a 45-yard field goal with 10 seconds left, but they missed wide right.

STONEHILL 22, SACRED HEART 19 (2 ot)
Senior Jermaine Corbett made a statement in his return from injury on Saturday, as the elusive running back’s five-yard run answered a go-ahead field goal by Sacred Heart's Sam Renzi and propelled Stonehill (3-4, 2-2 NEC) to a double-overtime win over the visiting Pioneers (1-7, 1-4 NEC) at W.B. Mason Stadium. The Garden State native racked up 146 yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns for the Skyhawks, who snapped a three-game skid with the 22-19 Homecoming triumph.


PATRIOT

rv/rv LAFAYETTE LEOPARDS (6-1, 2-0 PL) 38, AT NO 11/15 HOLY CROSS CRUSADERS (4-3, 2-1 PL) 35
Fitton Field/Worcester, Mass. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
WORCESTER, Mass. – Sophomore running back Jamar Curtis's 41-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter provided breathing room to help Lafayette hold off No. 11/15 Holy Cross in a 38-35 victory at Fitton Field.
*Curtis rushed for a career-high 229 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries to help the Leopards snap the Crusaders' 18-game Patriot League winning streak.
*Leopards' sophomore quarterback Dean DeNobile completed 12-of-17 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns: a 53-yard touchdown pass to sophomore tight end Dallas Holmes in the second quarter and a 43-yard strike to freshman receiver Carson Persing in the third.
*Sophomore wide receiver Elijah Steward caught five passes for a game-high 99 receiving yards for the Leopards.
*Lafayette senior linebacker Marco Olivas led the Leopards' defense with nine tackles and a half sack. Senior linebacker Billy Shaeffer finished with seven tackles, 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks.
*Holy Cross senior quarterback Matthew Sluka rushed for a career-high 330 yards on 28 carries, setting a single-game Patriot League and FCS record for rushing yards by a quarterback, against Lafayette, who entered the game with the fourth-ranked rushing defense in NCAA DI FCS.
*Sluka rushed for a 29-yard touchdown in the first quarter, 70-yard and four-yard touchdowns in the third quarter and threw a three-yard touchdown pass to senior wide receiver Jalen Coker in the fourth.
*Crusaders' junior running back Jordan Fuller rushed for 95 yards and a score on 16 carries.
*Holy Cross fifth-year linebacker Jacob Dobbs totaled 14 tackles, 1.5 TFLs and a half sack.
RECAPS: LAFAYETTE | HOLY CROSS

LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS (2-6, 1-2 PL) 27, AT BUCKNELL BISON (2-5, 0-3 PL) 18
Christy Mathewson - Memorial Stadium/Lewisburg, Pa. 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
LEWISBURG, Pa. – Freshman running back Luke Yoder rushed for a career-high 138 yards and two touchdowns to lead Lehigh to a 27-18 victory over Bucknell at Christy Mathewson – Memorial Stadium on Saturday.
*Yoder opened the scoring in the first quarter before sophomore placekicker Nick Garrido connected on field goals of 31 and 35 yards in the second quarter.
*Lehigh sophomore defensive back Nick Peltekian returned a punt 57 yards for a touchdown with 4:03 remaining in the first half to give the Mountain Hawks a 20-0 lead. Peltekian also made seven tackles and broke up two passes.
*Lehigh senior Mike DeNucci finished with a team-high nine tackles and 1.0 TFL, while senior linebacker Drew DeMorat added eight tackles, 1.5 TFLs and one sack.
*Bucknell sophomore placekicker Matt Schearer put the Bison on the board with a 35-yard field goal before the end of the half to make the score 20-3.
*Yoder found the end zone on a two-yard rush with 4:17 remaining in the game for his second touchdown of the day.
*Bison sophomore wide receiver Josh Gary returned the ensuing kickoff 88 yards for a touchdown, the longest kickoff return in the Patriot League this season.
*Senior quarterback Nick Semptimphelter threw a three-yard touchdown pass to sophomore wide receiver Derrick Anderson Jr. with 37 seconds left in the game to make the score 27-18.
*Bucknell senior defensive lineman Connor Carretta made a game-high 12 tackles and 2.0 TFLs, while junior safety John Schlendorf and sophomore cornerback Roman Pearson both recorded interceptions.
RECAPS: LEHIGH | BUCKNELL

COLGATE RAIDERS (3-4, 1-1 PL) 28, AT GEORGETOWN HOYAS (4-4, 2-1 PL) 18
Cooper Field/Washington, D.C. 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
BOX SCORE
WASHINGTON – Colgate senior defensive back Owen Goss intercepted two passes, returning one for a 59-yard touchdown in the first quarter to set the tone in the Raiders’ 28-18 victory over Georgetown at Cooper Field.
*The Raiders’ defense picked off three passes and limited the Hoyas to three scores in five red-zone trips to pick up their first League victory of the season.
*Sophomore quarterback Zach Osborne completed 8-of-12 passes, including a 19-yard touchdown pass to first-year running back Chris Gee in the first quarter.
*Colgate first-year wide receiver Winston Moore and senior running back Jaedon Henry each rushed for second-quarter touchdowns to build a 28-12 lead going into halftime.
*Fifth-year linebacker Tyler Flick recorded a team-high 12 tackles, senior linebacker Christian Sweeney compiled 11 tackles and sophomore linebacker Cole Kozlowski added seven tackles and an interception.
*Sophomore wide receiver Nicholas Dunneman led Georgetown’s offense with 205 receiving yards on 15 receptions, one shy of matching the Patriot League single-game record. He caught a 51-yard touchdown pass from graduate student quarterback Tyler Knoop in the first quarter.
*Knoop completed 32-of-57 passes for 353 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions for the Hoyas.
*Graduate student Joshua Stakely rushed for 51 yards on 10 carries, including a two-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.
*Senior linebacker David Ealey III finished with eight tackles and 1.5 TFLs, while junior defensive lineman Ibri Harell added four tackles, 2.0 TFLs and one sack for Georgetown.
RECAPS: COLGATE | GEORGETOWN

Bye Week: Fordham

PIONEER

Davidson 42, Valparaiso 21

DAVIDSON, N.C. – Mason Sheron ran for three touchdowns, including one on each side of halftime, to help Davidson down Valparaiso 42-21 in PFL action Saturday at Brown Field. Davidson scored the game’s first 28 points. Sheron’s second-quarter two-yard touchdown run, followed by a 38-yard dash midway through the third quarter, capping the opening outburst. Valparaiso would close within 14 points with 12:45 remaining on Chris Gundy’s 60-yard touchdown run, but Sheron closed the day’s scoring with and eight-yard run with 1:18 left. Sheron ran for 103 yards on 16 carries to pace Davidson’s 265-yard, five-TD rushing performance. Rowan Keefe passed for 187 yards on an 8-for-12, three-touchdown performance.

Butler 37, Dayton 10

DAYTON, Ohio – Jyran Mitchell ran for two touchdowns and caught another as Butler pulled away for a 37-10 PFL victory against Dayton Saturday at Welcome Stadium. Mitchell’s 24-yard touchdown run and Luka Zurak field goals from 24 and 46 yards staked the Bulldogs to a 13-0 lead after one quarter. Mitchell extended the lead before halftime with a three-yard touchdown reception from Bret Bushka for a 20-3 advantage. Mitchell would put the game away late in the fourth frame with a 59-yard scoring dash. Mitchell ran for 117 yards on 16 carries and added 29 yards on four receptions. Luke Hansen ran for Dayton’s lone touchdown as part of a nine-carry, 54-yard outings.

Marist 19, Presbyterian 10

CLINTON, S.C. – Marist used two defensive touchdowns, a safety, and a field goal to defeat Presbyterian 19-10 in PFL action Saturday at Bailey Memorial Stadium. Miles Kauderer tied the game in the first quarter with a 43-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Presbyterian regained the lead in the second quarter courtesy Mack Mikko’s 38-yard field goal. However, Marist took a 14-10 lead into halftime on Rechee Smith’s 48-yard interception return for a score with 59 seconds remaining. Marist would add a safety when it tackled a punt returner in the end zone early in the fourth quarter. Chase Gardi’s 32-yard field goal capped the Red Foxes scoring. Amin Woods ran for 111 yards on 27 carries for the Marist offense, which did not score. Tyler Wesley completed 14-of-35 passes for 204 yards and Nigel Brown scored the Blue Hose’s lone touchdown on a two-yard rush.

St. Thomas 38, Stetson 6

DELAND, Fla. – Hope Adebayo ran for 197 yards and two touchdowns, leading St. Thomas to a 38-6 PFL victory against Stetson Saturday at Spec Martin Memorial Stadium. Adebayo opened the scoring with a 67-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Patrick Wagner caught two touchdown passes to extend the lead to 24-0 before Adbayo capped a 31-0 scoring run with a 49-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Stetson broke through midway into the fourth quarter with Devon Brewer’s one-yard run, but that was all the Hatters could muster. Behind Adebayo’s effort, St. Thomas ran for 378 yards and three touchdowns against Stetson. Stetson passed for 245 yards but was held to 53 rushing yards.

Drake 25, San Diego 20

SAN DIEGO, Calif. – Luke Bailey’s 38-yard touchdown strike to Trey Radocha as time expired kept Drake unbeaten in PFL play with a 25-20 victory Saturday at Torero Stadium. Trailing 19-10 entering the fourth quarter San Diego used a 51-yard Aidan Lehman field goal and a one-yard Isaiah Williams touchdown run to build a 20-19 lead with 42 seconds remaining. Bailey went 5-for-7 on the game-winning drive, including his final two passes to Radocha that went for 49 yards. Bailey finished the day completing 19-of-44 passes for 292 yards and two touchdowns. San Diego used three quarterbacks who combined to complete 16-of-25 passes for 180 yards.

Tarleton State 42, Morehead State 0

STEPHENVILLE, Texas – Tarleton State used a 21-point second quarter to build a 28-0 halftime lead and didn’t look back in a 42-0 victory against Morehead State Saturday in nonconference action at Memorial Stadium. The Texans outgained the Eagles 515-113 on the day, with Kayvon Britton amassing 143 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. MSU’s Carter Cravens completed 9-of-24 passes for 114 yards but the Eagles run game was limited to minus 11 yards.

 

[s--k]

SOCON

No. 20/21 Chattanooga 34, ETSU 3
Samford 27, VMI 14
No. 3/4 Furman 29, No. 14/8 Western Carolina 17
Mercer 31, Wofford 17

SWAC

Saturday, October 21, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Time	Location	Links
Saturday 10/21/2023	Jackson State 21	Mississippi Valley State 6	Final	Itta Bena, MS (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	Alcorn State 31	Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7	Final	Pine Bluff, AR (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	Southern 28	Bethune-Cookman 18	Final	Jacksonville, FL (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	Florida A&M 31	Texas Southern 21	7:00 P.M. CT	Houston, TX (Conf.)

SOUTHLAND

Thursday, October 19, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Thursday 10/19/2023	Southeastern 37	Northwestern State 20	Final	Natchitoches, LA (Conf.)	Box Score

Saturday, October 21, 2023Football

Date	Away	Home	Result	Location	Links
Saturday 10/21/2023	Nicholls 27	Texas A&M-Commerce 7	Final	Commerce, TX (Conf.)	Box Score
Saturday 10/21/2023	UIW 35	McNeese 24	Final	Lake Charles, LA (Conf.)	Box Score

UAC

#UACFOOTBALL - Close games and thrilling finishes describe all three of the United Athletic Conference (UAC) Football contests for Week 8 action, while Tarleton boasted a shutout Homecoming win in non-conference play.

In the in-state rivalry battle between Abilene Christian and Stephen F. Austin, the Wildcats spoiled the Lumberjacks Homecoming event after earning the 34-27 decision in a back-and-forth affair. North Alabama and Utah Tech went down to the wire as the Trailblazers scored a touchdown in the final minute but saw their 2-point attempt for the win batted away by a diving UNA defender to secure the one-point win, 31-30.

Not to be outdone, No. 24-ranked Austin Peay rallied in the fourth quarter and then outlasted Southern Utah in double-overtime for the 48-45 victory, marking the Govs fifth conseutive win of the season.

The Texans dominated Morehead State from the opening kickoff in tallying a 42-0 win while EKU dropped a heartbreaking 35-32 rematch against Gardner-Webb.

UAC RESULTS | OCT. 21
* Abilene Christian 34, Stephen F. Austin 27 | Boxscore
* North Alabama 31, Utah Tech 30 | Boxscore
* #24 Austin Peay 48, Southern Utah 45 (2OT) | Boxscore
Tarleton 42, Morehead State 0 | Boxscore
Gardner-Webb 35, EKU 32 | Boxscore

* = UAC Game
NOTE: Game stories linked to UAC winners

 

[s--k]

4 weeks left of regular season play!

I should be good to obsessively post this week. I wanted to post all the conference standings, but that proved to be a bit of a challenge. I'm going to try it again.

 

[s--k]

Big Sky


Big South (merged with OVC with one auto playoff bid)

Ohio Valley (merged with Big South with one auto playoff bid)


CAA



Ivy



MEAC

 

[s--k]

MVFC



NEC


PATRIOT


PIONEER

SoCon


SOUTHLAND


SWAC



UAC

School	Conf	CPct.	Overall	Pct.	Streak
Austin Peay	2-0	1.000	5-2	.714	W5
Central Arkansas	2-0	1.000	5-2	.714	W4
Eastern Kentucky	2-0	1.000	3-4	.429	L1
Abilene Christian	2-1	.667	4-3	.571	W2
Utah Tech	1-1	.500	2-5	.286	L1
Tarleton State	1-2	.333	5-3	.625	W1
Southern Utah	1-2	.333	2-5	.286	L1
North Alabama	1-3	.250	3-5	.375	W1
Stephen F. Austin	0-3	.000	3-5	.375	L3

 

[s--k]

Abilene Christian - +7 TO margin the last two games, but wins one as a fav vs N Ala and one as dog last week vs SFA. Outgained in both, outgained in every single game this year except week 1 (-164.5 avg last 6 games). Kind of an average team, better when they can run rather than relying on pass (poor 52% completions).
Alabama A&M - Bye last week, upset Grambling week prior as 3.5 pt road dog (ran for 336y, 7.5ypc +90 total yards in that one). 1-2 ATS vs SWAC as dogs, 0-1 ATS as fav, 3-1 Overs in those. In the favorite role they didn't cover, had a +185 yardage edge vs Ark PB (7 pt win laying 9.5). QB Lankford passed for 265y 2 weeks ago vs Jackson St and ran for 193y at Grambling.
Alabama State - Bye last week, upset Jackson St prior to that as 10.5 pt road dog (outgained by -169). Dog is 5-0 in their games. ASU is 3-0 ATS as dog with two upsets (Jackson St and week 1 vs Southern). ASU is 0-2 ATS as a fav, won one vs Bethune by 5 laying 6 and lost one vs Alcorn in OT by 3 laying 2 - both were at home. Unders are 4-1, only Over was OT game on a 37.5 pt total. Only avg 295 ypg vs FCS. Only 8 TDs in 18 RZ trips.
Albany - 3-0 ATS at home (1 fav, 2 dogs won both outright), 0-3 ATS on road vs FCS (2 fav won by 6 laying 13 at Morgan {weather} and won by 7 laying 8 at Towson, but Towson had chance to win/tie late). Failed to cover +3 losing by 7 at UNH, but were in that game the whole way including a DD lead in the 2H, bottom line, all their games on the road are close either as fav or dog. D had 23 sacks in first 5 games, only 1 sack in last 3 games. 414y and 540y of O their last two games (vs UNH and URI) - best offensive production games all year.
Alcorn St - on 3-0 SU and ATS run since losing as 6.5 pt fav to PV a month ago. Have outgained each of thier last 5 opponents by avg of 114 ypg (4-1 SU and ATS in those). Pretty good all around team.
Ark Pine Bluff - lost to Miss Valley St two weeks ago, sums it up well. 1-3 ATS vs SWAC with the 1 cover in a game they were outgained by -185y vs Ala A&M. Worst total yardage D in league.
Austin Peay - Streaky team. Trailed 14-28 HT at Southern Utah, came back to win in OT, but were outgained by -123y. Can put it on bad teams or any team with issues (beat GW, Linden and ETSU by combined 156-27). But vs teams with some players and capabilities, only outscored SFA and SUU by combined 70-65.
Bethune Cookman - Started 4-0 ATS despite being massively outgained in lined games. On 0-2 ATS run now. Only avg 3.4 ypp O their last 3 games.
Brown - 0 turnovers first 3 games = 3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU. 8 turnovers last 3 games = 2-1 ATS, 1-2 SU. Avg 450y and 32 ppg first 5 games, only 298y and 14 pts at Cornell last week.
Bryant - On 3-0 Over run and 4 of last 5, needed OT to get their last week. Those games have gone Over because of their D mostly - which isn't necessarily bad, just their O isn't pulling weight. Bryant scoring O is down almost 10 ppg and nearly 80 ypg this year over last. Were outgained by -123y vs EIU last week and -188y vs URI 2 games ago. 1-2 ATS as favorite this year, 2-1 ATS as dogs.
Bucknell - Scoring O and D about 6-7 pts better this year over last year, but depends really who they are playing. Went Under the last two vs equal-ish opponents Cornell and Lehigh (avg score 19.5-20). Went Over their last 3 vs superior teams (lost by avg of 23.3-49.3 against HC, Laf and Penn). Extending that to the beginning of the season, Unders 3-0 vs equalish opponents (VMI, Cornell, Lehigh). Starting QB missed last game with injury.
Butler - 2-1 ATS vs Pioneer as a favorite (+93 avg ttl ypg), 1-1 ATS as dog (outgained by -38 and -161). Total margin in two league SU losses = 9 pts. Margins in 3 league SU wins 10, 10 and 27 pts. Unders 4-1 in league, last week stayed Under by just 1.5 pt.
Cal Poly - Off best all-around Offensive game last week vs UNC. That game resembles their week 1 game vs San Diego. Comparing those two results, not sure if last week speaks more to improved Cal Poly play or lack there-of for UNC. If we compare to the Portland St game than Cal Poly is a lot better. Portland St and UNC aren't comparable though. Jury says, Cal Poly still not good, but likely not as bad now.
Campbell - On 0-4 ATS run (2-2 SU, all as fav). Total yardage over the course of those 4 games is almost exactly even net. Campbell previously could not stop run, not sure what the Maine gameplan was, but they only ran ball 12x (lead RB injured?). So Maine passed for 486 on them. You can get Campbell by ground or air. Saving grace for Campbell is their O can sometimes make up for their issues on D. Just a poor favorite vs equal type teams. Not a predictable Over or Under team.
Central Arkansas - Question the D - vs ACU and SUU held them to just 232 (4.4) and 232 (3.5) total yards. But then allowed SEMO 415 (5.1) and SFA 386 (5.4). Question their O last week vs SFA, worst offensive game of the ssn (24 pts and just 306 ttl yards). Poor RZ O, just 13 TDs on 25 trips last 4 games. Depending on SEMO line, UCA could be on a 0-3 ATS run, 1-2 ATS best case if favorable SEMO line. Bit of a puzzling team last 3 games.
Central Connecticut State - Allowed Delaware St 44 pts and 426y. Del St is bad team. Allowed similar to Duquesne., Duq is good team relatively speaking. Same with Brown who had 460y and 42 pts on CCSU. So how did Wagner only gain 299y while scoring just 3 pts? Wagner was 0-3 scoring TDs in the RZ (missed FG, INT and SOD). CCSU was also +3 TO. Was best passing game by CCSU since week 2 (69% 236y)
Charleston Southern - D is actually pretty good, held UTM almost 200y below their FCS O avg and UTM's 4.0 ypc rush is their worst on the year. Their D is the reason they are on a 3-0 ATS run with 3-0 Unders (and 4 of last 5 on both spread covers and Unders). Very week offensive team in every category still however.
Chattanooga - Better Pass O than Rush O. The D has suffocated some bad offenses in ETSU, Mercer, Wofford and Citadel. Vs good offenses the Mocs D gave up 52 pts and 551 (11.5) to WCU and 24 with 473 (5.8) to Samford. Were outgained by Samford but +3 TOs were big. Scoring TDs in the RZ has been issue, last week vs ETSU just 2 TDs on 5 trips, vs Mercer just 1 TD on 5 trips. Scored 4 of 5 vs WCU, but then vs Wofford only 2 TDs on 4 trips. On the season they score TDs just 52.6% of the time in the RZ. Good thing for them, their RZ D is outstanding.
Colgate - 3 game winning streak, all as 6 pt to 11.5 pt dogs! All 3 Overs. Have had some good fortune in each. Cornell was just 4-of-16 3rd downs on them and two Cornell fumbles led directly to 14 Colgate pts (14y "drive" and a D TD). Yards were essentially even. Dartmouth outgained them by 91y and that one went to OT where they won a blk'd FG, Dartmouth only scored 4x on 7 RZ trips (3 TDs). And last week vs Georgetown, they were outgained by 208y and benefitted from 3 Hoya TOs with one being a pick-six. GT only scored 3x on 5 RZ trips with just 1 TD. So a deceiving 3-0 run it is. I'd say they generally played well vs Cornell and Dartmouth, the Georgetown game they did not.
Columbia - Dead last is just about every offensive category in Ivy League, do play some relatively good D though. 2-4 ATS, Unders 5-1. Switched QBs last game to Joe Green who was 2022 starter until injury. He injected life into the passing offense. Other than the offensive explosion vs Georgetown, they had their best offensive game last week yardage wise, but only scored 9 pts.
Cornell - Were avg 358ypg and 21.4ppg in 5 games before playing Brown where they gained 434y and 36 pts in the upset win. Did have a pick-six and two FGs after two other INTs. Unders 4-2. Dog is 5-1 ATS in Cornell games and there have been a total of 4 upsets among the 6.
Dartmouth - Off their worst offensive game of the year vs Columbia just 215 ttl yards (3.7ypp) and Columbia outgained them by 88y. Dartmouth is 2-0 in games they lost the ttl yardage and just 1-3 in games they outgained their opponent (had Yale and Colgate by nearly 100y each and lost both).
Davidson - 3-1 ATS since week 1 and outgained their lined Pioneer League opponets by 141 ypg. All 4 Overs. Avg 50 rush att per game and under 18 pass att per game, but hit 83.5% completions vs Pioneer teams.
Dayton - 0-5 ATS vs Pioneer including an OT loss to Presbyterian. Weak offense. Big 4th down team, 17 att last 4 games (converted 8).
Delaware - Outgained every FCS team they have played this year and 5-1 ATS in those. On a 3-0 Under run, however two have been close, last week by 1.5 pts and vs Duquesne it stayed Under by 1 pt on the closing number. Primary QB Ryan O'Connor DNP last week vs Hampton. Pretty weak schedule outside of playing New Hampshire.
Delaware State - 0-5 ATS. SC State outgained them by 370y and CCSU got them by 158y. Bad
Drake - 4-0 SU and ATS run (upset wins at Morehead and vs St Thomas), outgained St Thomas by a whopping 373y two weeks ago. Needed hail mary to beat San Diego last week. Don't really look that good in box scores, have rushed for 2.23 ypc the last 3 games and only completed 41 and 47% of their passes in two of the last three - BUT the other one they hit 74% and went for 449y passing vs St Thomas - so weird.
Duquesne - Team has gotten better since playing back-to-back FBS in Sept and got blown out in those. Were tied with LIU at HT and won by 3. Only trailed Delaware by 5 at HT, but did lose by 26 as 22.5 pt dog. Beat CCSU by 24. Led St Francis 31-7 at HT last week and withstood a 2H comeback attempt, hung on to win by 3. Overs 5-1, could be 6-0 with a better number than close in the Delaware game. Pretty balanced O and a good enough D most of the time vs NEC type teams.
Part 2
ETSU - Held to 120y of O last week vs UTC and 126y 3 weeks ago vs Mercer. Bad O vs good D. But they put up by far their ssn high two games ago vs Wofford (41pts and 422y). Passed for 30-40% completions in 3 of last 4. The D is equally bad when they play decent to good teams. (Outgained by avg of 255 ypg in 3 of last 4 excluding Wofford game because ETSU outgained Wofford by +245).
Eastern Illinois - Have rounded into a pretty solid team as seen in 1 pt OT loss vs UTM (+46 yards) and just a 7 pt loss at SEMO (yards even). Outgained Bryant by +123 but only won on a 2pt conv in OT. FG kicking is an issue, have missed 8 over the last four games. 3-1 ATS as dogs, 1-2 ATS as favs. Overs 5-2.
EKU - QB Parker McKinney's numbers are down this year. Passing for just 240 ypg compared to 330 ypg last year. % is down, ypc is down and TD-INT ratio was 33-8 last year and through 7 games this year it is just 11-9. O avg per game vs FCS is 469y and 34 pts, but their D is yielding 501 ypg and 31 ppg. No surprise that all their FCS games can and have sung either way in the end with only the UNA game being a more than 1 score game (UNA outgained them by 100y, but hurt by TOs and RZ failures). Overs 2-0 in the last two (need OT in one) and Overs 3 of last 4. The dog has won outright in 3 of their 5 FCS games, dog 4-1 ATS in all FCS EKU games.
Eastern Washington - Vs Big Sky opponents, 1-1 ATS as a fav (upset once by ISU) and 1-1 ATS as a dog (pulled one upset vs UCD). #1 QB Visperas DNP vs Idaho, running QB Taylor started that one. Visperas is 281 ypg passing on the year with 67% and a 9-3 ratio. You'd think EWU passing O would be better, but they actually have some balance with the run lately, 192y (4.2) on Weber last week, 150 (4.7) on ISU and 226 (5.4) with the running QB vs Idaho. O avg 335ypg and 31.5 ppg vs the two better league teams they played in UCD and Idaho. Avg 486ypg and 36ppg vs the two lesser teams in ISU and Weber. The D gives it up vs all though. Weber St had arguably their best offensive game of the year on them last week (Weber started a new QB).
Elon - Up and down team, mostly down lately. Last three games: Led Monmouth 21-6 HT, hung on to win by 2 (outgained by -85y) as small home dog. Shutout 0-21 at 'Nova (outgained by -377). Lost to NCCU by 11 pts as 6 pt fav. Going back 4+ games ago now, beat William and Mary and beat Campbell both as dogs. They have been outgained in every game this year except for A&T. Run game was their strength, but over the last 3 games their rush avg just 76ypg (2.13ypc). Off the cuff would call them avg O and below avg D - their rush O trend is alarming.
FAMU - 2-0 ATS as dogs weeks 1-2, but failed to cover as a FCS favorite this year, 0-4 ATS. They have however outgained every team they have played. Unders 6-1 in all games. Only Over was on a 37 pt total where they combined for 45. Not a turnover prone team - avg 1 per game outside of the USF game, but they play so tight to the spreads that just one meaningful turnover can be the difference (INT thrown in EZ last week, INT thrown at the 4 yard line two games ago). Have only had two true home games all year where they beat West Florida by 21 and beat ASU by 13.
Fordham - Bit of a jeckyl-hyde team. Beat Stony Brook and Stonehill by combined 70-7 score, but then were nearly beat by Lehigh even though they had +204y edge in that one and were beat by Georgetown as 16.5pt favorite. They can run on bad teams, but vs the better ones it is all about their passing game. Montes has been excellent with a 17-0 ratio, but vs Georgetown he hit just 47% (66% avg in all other games). Their D can be a limitation.
Furman - D has been strong! Held Samford to just 337y and 21 pts and high-powered WCU gained just 353y and 17 pts! Really good run D. Their O controls games with their run. Dog is on 3-0 ATS run on closing lines (I have Samford as a +6.5/7), so over the last 3 that makes Furman 0-2 ATS as a fav, but 1-0 ATS as a dog in the win last week. Overall Furman is 2-3 ATS as a fav and 1-1 as a dog.
Gardner Webb - On backup QB the last two games, won one, lost one. Ran the ball 52x last week for 255 (4.9) that is much more to their strengths. Only ran for 34 att in each of last two games while attempting 35 passes vs AP last week (only 54%). Last week vs EKU they were able to run and passed jsut 19x and hit 79%. That was their best overall offensive outing since week 2. They do turn it over a lot. Last week EKU turned it over just as much as they did (4 each). On the season, GW has lost 19 turnovers (-9 ratio). The D is usually good enough to not lose them games as long as the O does their part.
Georgetown - Have outgained every opponent this year except Columbia back in game #4. +143 ttl yard differential on average in their other 7 games, but just 4-3 SU in those. The O has been hot last 4 weeks avg 440 ypg although the scoring has not matched, avg just 25.5 ppg. Only managed 18 on Colgate (1 TD on 5 RZ trips) and just 17 on Lehigh (1 TD on 4 RZ trips). Have had significant struggles scoring TDs in two earlier games this season as well. The Hoya D has actually been strong over those games, only Penn really got them (400y with 6.7ypp). In the other 3 vs Colgate, Lehigh and Fordham the Georgetwon D held those teams to 278ypg and 19.6 ppg. 7 of Colgate's pts were from a pick-six.
Grambling - Have been upset the last two games vs Alabama A&M and at Alcorn and were outgained in each as well (Grambling lost 3 TOs in each). They were playing some good ball prior although wins came just vs Texas Southern and PV. Not a good D, Overs are 5-1.
Hampton - Down hill big time since their upset win at Richmond. Trailed Campbell by a couple scores, but did only lose that by 3 and covered. Just -49 ttl yards in that one. But Vs Monmouth lost 10-61 and lost 3-47 to Delaware last week being outgained by 300y in each! Passing game hitting just 25 and 37 % the last two games and the D has been shredded. Still, Unders are 3-1 over the last 4, but a couple of them have been close.
Harvard - O hit a brick wall named Princeton last week. DePrima threw 3 INTs and was sacked 3x. He has had some poor completion games this year and he only connected on 42% vs the Tiger D. His legs have proppelled the Harvard O all year, but only a long run of 11 last week and with the sacks he rushed for just a net of 10y. They were down 0-14 HT and looked pretty dead, so some credit given they were able to comeback and tie. Crimson D couldn't hold Princeton late. It wasn't like Princeton O was super great, they were similar to their two prior games vs Brown and Lafayette. The biggest difference is the Princeton OL really won their matchup vs the Harvard DL - that was a huge suprise.
Holy Cross - As in holy shit no defense! Lafayette went for 498y (8.3) and 38 pts on them. But their last game vs Bucknell - HC allowed 400y (5.6) and 27 pts. That is a big problem. It was poor weather and HC couldn't pass much at all (only completed 7 of 21), however, Lafayette played in the same conditions and passed for 12-17-262-2-0! Sluka ran for 330y (11.8) ... but how about Laf RB Curtis rushing for 229y (7.6) AND Laf coupled that with a passing game while HC was all run. HC converted just 5-of-14 3rd downs and a couple games ago they struggled in this area vs Harvard as well with just 3-of-11. They do not even look like a playoff team right now.
Houston Christian - only good vs weak teams, see PV and SELU who souldn't be poor but are. HCU struggled with Nicholls and Lamar. If they play another bad team, they can occasionally produce some O. Their D on the other hand is an issue vs most.
Howard - Like clockwork this team gets down in the 1H, again last week trailed Norfolk St 9-17 HT. In their last 3 games, Howard has been outscored 9-61 in the 1H. Vs NW and last week vs Norfolk they were able to comeback, they were unable to comeback at all on Harvard. Howard outscored NW 20-7 in the 2H and outscored Norfolk 18-6. They did the same thing week 1 vs EMich. Maybe it is because of the slow starts, but they do not produce a lot of yardage, avg just 329 ypg their last 4 and that includes their most impressive win in that span vs Robert Morris (won 35-10 but gained just 337y). The ypp is usually pretty good, 6.1ypp vs RM and 6.8ypp vs Norfolk last week.
Part 3
Idaho - Slow start cost them last game vs Montana, but it takes two and Montana earned it and then hung on late. Idaho -3 TOs in that one. Maybe the Idaho run D isn't quite as good as thought. We'll find out for sure this Saturday. I thought what EWU did on the ground vs Idaho was more about not being prepared for a running QB because nobody thought he was going to start. Now we can look back and teams committed to running with 40+ carries does yield good results to work (Cal 256 [6.0] EWU 226, [5.4] and Griz 158, [4.0]). And the Vandal rush O was thought to be just as good as their passing capabilities, that didn't happen vs Montana either. McCoy is not having the season he did last year. Entered this year as a FCS Heisman, a Walter Payton candidate, don't hear much about that now. He only has a 10-6 ratio through 7 games where as in 12 games last year he hit a 27-7 ratio. WR Hatten stole two of his passing TDs on trick plays. So as the season has wore on, Idaho isn't quite the team I was thinking they could be. Still pretty outstanding; if you got the best possbile lines on them, they'd be 6-1 ATS, if you got the worst possible lines they'd be 3-3. I have them officially at 5-2. Have outgained every opponent and in Big Sky play that is +106 ypg on average. Unders 4-3.
Idaho State - What a great turn-around! On a 4-0 spread run with back-to-back straight up wins as DD dogs vs EWU (trailed 14-41 late 3Q) and at Portland St (never trailed and often led by 2 scores thoughout). First-time, first-year HC Cody Hawkins and a young JUCO QB Jordan Cooke have had a huge positive impact. They ran the ball for a ssn high 35 att last week, which was them putting the game away (16 of 35 att came in 4Q), they normally want to pass and pass it very often (avg 50 pass att per game before last week's ssn low of 32). Not as much of an Over team I would've thought. Unders have hit 3 of last 4.
Illinois State - 4-3 SU with two very close road losses that could've gone the other way. The 1 pt loss at EIU and the 3 pt loss at YSU are going to haunt them at playoff selection time, lost both in the final seconds. Good team though, O is better than expected this year while the D, when they play another good O, the D is worse than expected. 2-0 ATS as dogs vs SDSU and YSU (0-2 SU). 3-2 ATS as a fav on closing lines, could be 4-1 ATS as fav if you got the best available number. They hammer bad teams outgaining them by 246.5 on average.
Incarnate Word - Very unimpressive play in the weak SLC. They did outgain McNeese by 180y and Tx AM Com by 245y. Vs McNeese though they had to comeback from a 7-24 HT hole. Scored very late to make it look better at 35-24. Did the same vs TxAM Com, scored late to make it look better 28-11 Final (it was only 14-11 mid 4Q!). Only beat SELU by 7 and were slightly outgained. Last week neither McNeese or UIW started their #1 QB. Calzada missed with shoulder injury - he had shoulder surgery last year and I am unsure the severity of this injury at the moment. They started Ryan Stubblefield (ECU transfer) and that didn't go well. Inserted Fr QB Richard Torres in the 2H and he was good, they should be ok going forward if he is the guy. It's not a great team, but playing a soft schedule it hasn't yet cost them.
Indiana State - Hard team to get a grasp on. Of course they are a bad team in a lot of ways, yet at home vs UNI and USD they only lost by 7 and 14, well within the spread of each. My best explaination is that UNI and USD were both in flat spots off big wins and had bigger games on deck. Illinois St hammered them taking out aggression following thier loss to SDSU. The only game they've played vs equal poor competition in the last 4 was vs Murray who they could've or should've beat (+136 ttl y) - that was Chamber's first game back. It will be a few weeks until they get another bad team to see if they can win vs (Western Ill Nov 11th).
Jackson St - Started new QB last week Jacobian Morgan (Syracuse transfer). I don't think Brown is hurt, but they want something else out of that position and Morgan brings more running ability. He led Jackson St in rushing att and yards last week vs MVSU. I'm not sure that is going to be a good long term move or not. I didn't think Morgan was all that good passing vs MVSU and they regular running game should be focused on more. Will have to see as the rest of the ssn goes on. But really, Jackson St is a very very frustrating team, anyone who has been on them will know. Are on a 1-3 ATS run with their only cover being a game they were up big on Alabama A&M, but let A&M comeback and had to withstand multiple scoring threats from them late to win that by 15 (-10.5). Have not played a complete 4Q since week 0. Just 2-4 on the year ATS as a fav. When this D is at their best, they are really good. Under 3 of last 4.
Lafayette - 5 outright wins as dogs this year, a perfect 7-0 ATS! Just held HC to 7 pts in the 1H last week! When they play the better teams on their schedule, the games are close. Beat HC by 3, Princeton by 3, Monmouth by 8 and the yardage differential in those 3 is very slight +/-. They do the little things right (limit penalties and turnovers, be efficient on O) and make big plays in big moments vs the good teams. Vs Bad teams they win big, 56-22 over Bucknell (+236y) and 24-3 (+235y). Former 5th string and walk-on QB Dean Denobile has led this offense so well (top 12 NCAA completion %) and RB Curtis was good last year, this year is a breakout (#3 NCAA rush yards). D ranks #1-2 NCAA in sacks and TFLs per game on the year. They are in the driver's seat for Patriot auto-bid.
Lamar - We find out this week if Lamar is for real or not. They are 3-0 vs SLC teams who have combined just 4 wins! Beat HCU by 2, beat NW St by 14 and SELU by 6 with no significant stat advantages in any of those 3. I haven't had a handle on Lamar most of the year, I tend to think they aren't very good still and have benefitted from beating other not very good teams. But, they probably have some confidence and we'll see what that means for them soon enough.
Lehigh - Played pretty well the last 3 weeks and finally got an illusive second win on the year last week at Bucknell. Really surprised how well they played at Fordham, they followed that up with a mostly close game vs Georgetown before losing by 10. They were not great last week, got the win vs another bad team who was without their starting QB who had improved that O this year, so not surprised Lehigh won that game considering. I still consider them a play against team assuming the right circumstances. Bye this week, then HC, Colgate and Lafayette.
Lindenwood - QB was knocked out vs Tenn Tech and DNP at Charleston Southern (backup just 48% and 170y in that one). Not an awful team when they play other bad teams like Tenn Tech and W ILL. Charleston Southern is bad, but they have played some D and been in some tough games vs better teams. So 2-1 ATS vs bad teams, 0-3 ATS vs good teams. Not sure of Dugger's status, feel like their O is pretty limited without him - with him they are capable of making occasional big plays (WR Caldwell!). Under on a 4-0 run, the last two went way Under (vs bad teams) the two previous were barely Under (vs good teams in lopsided games).
Long Island - Not surprised they lost to Merrimack, but am surprised they were completely and utterly dominated in a the 39-0 shutout loss, outgained by 267y! They previsouly had played Duquesne tough losing by just 3 and hung in there vs Maine (lost by 11 but actually even in yards). They started a Tr Fr at QB last week due to injuries to the top 2. Suppose that explains the no offense. The D had probably their worst game of the year. Maybe Merrimack is just who they were supposed to be? Hard to know what LIU will be going forward. You've probably heard Eric O'Neil's name by now this year or last, he is leading the NCAA in TFLs per game (2.2)
Maine - The Stony Brook game being the peak of their season, they seem to be losing some steam of late. Did cover vs Campbell last week, because Campbell can rarely hold a lead. Maine trailed 7-28 HT, but lost by 7 and had a +82 ttl y edge. Only beat LIU 24-13 and then lost by 11 at Richmond with Richmond exploding offensively against them. The pass O is still there for them with 389 ypg over the last 4, but the D isn't getting many stops (allowing 433, 6.65ypp) over the same period. Really the big difference for the O is what they get per pass completion now vs earlier in the year. They were just 8.5y per pass completion avg over the first 4 games. They opened the O up and now are getting 13.8 ypc over the last 4. Overs have hit 3 of last 4, but the numbers on them have been adjusting up from 40.5 to 45.5 to 51 to 60.5 last week.
Marist - Here is a good one! Marist has beat San Diego and Presbyterian the last two weeks with a TOTAL of 367 yards of offense! Been outgained by -194 vs SD and -108 vs the Bluehose! They had two D scores and a safety in the 19-10 win over Presbyterian last week and 97y pick-six and a 15y "drive" for TD plus a safety in the 30-16 win over SD. SD lost 5 TOs that game...Marist had just NINE FDs in that one, yet won 30-16! 4-1 SU and ATS in Pioneer League play, unbelievable. Unders on 3-0 run.
McNeese - Still winless on the year. Had one in their sights last week vs UIW, but played ultra conservative 2H thinking they could just milk clock their way to a win. That was just their second FCS cover of the season. UIW outgained them by 180y and the last game vs TxAM Com they were outgained by 190. Had a two game stretch vs EIU and Nicholls were they were kind of competitive, but too many bad team mistakes in those. It's 0-7 vs 0-6 this week, somebody's getting a win!
Mercer - They've gotten better, atleast now they beat and cover the bad teams...over the course of the last 4 they are 2-1 ATS vs the likes of VMI, ETSU and Wofford ; 0-1 ATS vs a good team in Chattanooga. They pretty much dominated VMI and ETSU in yards, the Wofford game was close. Chattanooga like Furman before them showed that this Mercer team is not a serious threat vs the good SoCon teams. They are starting to pass the ball more, which would get the ball into the hands of their best offensive players at WR ... attempted 29 passes per game over the last 3. They were only attempted 17.6 passes per game over the 3 games prior to that. So assuming Peavy can actually connect on these increased passes, that does give them a better chance. Their run game has been a dead-end street unless they are playing like VMI or Morehead. The D is still pretty good, UTC moved it on them, but Mercer was bend-don't-break and forced a bunch of FGs instead of TDs. That was not the case vs Furman who scored all the TDs they wanted on them. Will be interesting to see how they finish the season. I[m sure they believe a playoff birth is still within reach, but they'd have to win out. Big one vs Western Carolina this week.
Merrimack - Merrimack loves to run, hates to pass. Avg 47 rush att per game this year and just 15.7 pass att per game. And actually over the last 3 games they are attempting just 9 per game! Have a 3 game winning streak right now after losing two games earlier in the year they should've never lost vs Lehigh and Wagner. The D has been pretty good enough vs everyone but HC week 1. Not a real good 3rd down O, just convert 34% in NEC play, but they limit opponents to just 17%. As long as they can run on offense, they should be in every game.
Mississippi Valley State - Off back-to-back covers and even got a win in there vs Akr PB. Vs SWAC have covered 3 of 4, so my estimation they were one of the worst teams in the country was off, instead I'll correct myself, SWAC football is the worst in the country. They have a Jerry Rice Award Watchlist that just came out last week in QB Ty'Jarion Williams. That is best Fr POY award. He is off a rough game vs Jackson St with 3 INTs and 8 sacks, but Jackson St D can do that to anybody. Team can not be considered auto-fade any longer, but they should struggle this week at Alcorn. After that they may be competitive with the rest of the bad SWAC teams.
Missouri State - Thought they were easy to peg - bad vs good teams, good vs bad teams. Until last week, Murray was close with them throughout and that was just a 4 pt win as a 19.5 pt fav and they did not have any statistical advantages vs them either. Maybe Murray is indeed scrappy as Carolinablue speculated. Best passing O in MVFC, in total about an avg O overall with a bad D. Turnover prone is several games (5 games this year losing at least two). Playing backup QB since week 5. The overall passing yards and efficiencycy numbers are as strong as they are partially because of what Clark did before injury. He had passed for 332 and 414 in his two full FCS games before injury. He avg 254ypg in 3.5 games with a strong 10-2 ratio. In the 3.5 games Pachot has been the primary and starting QB since Clark's injury, he is averaging 271ypg but with just a 9-5 ratio and a bit of a lower yards per completion. Clark's experience gave him better pocket presence was more mobile as well. Pachot has been sacked more often.
Monmouth - Was odd to see them small road fav at Elon last week. Elon was in a bad mood after being shutout the week prior at Villanova and jumped on them 21-6. Monmouth showed up in the 2H and outscored them 20-7. Monmouth is definitely pretty good when they play the lesser CAA teams and I think they are pretty decent overall. Some inefficiency on 3rd down and in the RZ hurt them last week. They can run it with the best of them (avg 261 rush ypg the last 3 - but note a good Lafayette D did limit them to 59 rush yards (1.6).
Montana - Griz have responded incredibly well to the early season weak play. The win vs Idaho STate is actually kind of impressive given the season Idaho State is on. Then they won at Davis, not much of a big deal, but it was big for Montana in the moment to be able to do that and then a huge win obviously at Idaho last time out. Two 90+y TD drives in the 1H, one was a 50-something TD catch and run. Just such an amazing start for them in that game. The 2H however, if not for a short field following an INT, they may've been shutout in the 2H. Idaho tried to come back on them, had that failed 2pt conv that would've tied and then fumbled late to seal it. Honestly, I don't give a lot of respect to the UC Davis win, maybe I should, but Davis is just an average team. And I don't want to say the Idaho win is a fluke, because the way they played in the 1H they definitely deserved that start they got off to and with the lead, the D was good enough in the 2H, but the Montana O had nothing after HT in that one. I still see this team potentially losing a couple games yet. Not likely this week (UNC), but the collection of Sac St, Port St and Montana St - that is going to be a tough run for them I think.
Montana State - Extremely difficult team to stop. The D wasn't quite as good as I thought they were last week. Sac St scored late to make it appear closer with the 42-30 Final. Couple turnovers set them up well, the short pick-six and two other short field scores FG and TD after SOD and INT. And the yards, Sac St going for 434 (6.2) and rushing for 200y (7.1). That gets your attention. The missed FGs get attention too, 4 misses on the year now. Obviously a beast of a team, might have seen some chinks in the armor burried in that final score though.
Morehead St - I am only following FCS this year and honestly I didn't even realize until I looked this week that Morehead is a Pioneer League team. I was invovled in their game at Mercer (one of the Mercer underachieving efforts), but had forgotten all about it. They had beat Valpo and Dayton before Tarleton hammered them and really Valpo and Dayton are two of the worst teams around. Probably should've paid more attention because Tarleton would've been an easy pick vs them last week.
Morgan State - Such a great defensive team. What they did vs NCCU, holding them to just 3 pts at HT and holding them to a season low in yards is not a fluke. That is who the Morgan State D is. Now, the offense, it is polar opposite and just awful. Scored that on-by-the-way 40y TD with :33 left, but let's be honest that shouldn't have happened. They should've ended this game with 3 pts just like they ended the Yale game with 3 pts. That is the kind of O we are talking about here. Unders are 4-2 with the only Overs hitting on 30-something pt totals one of which was OT that shouldn't have gone to OT.
Murray State - Depending on the lines this team could be 3-1 ATS over their last 4 or 1-3 or 1-2-1 (opened favored by as much as 5 vs Ind St, closed dog won by 2 but didn't cover opener or moves down from open) and were anywhere from +20.5 to +22 vs SIU and lost that one by 21. Did outgain Missouri St by 30y in the 4 pt loss last game. SIU outgained them by 217, USD outgained them by 176 and Ind State outgained them by 136. Not a real good offense, had 10 pts on short fields following turnovers last week to contribute to their 24 pt total and vs Ind State had a safety and a pick-six to make up 9 of their 30 pts in that one. They avg just 266 ypg of O their last 4 games. I have the recent totals at 2-1-1 to the Under.


I'm going to suspend this as I needed to have it done on Wednesday and couldn't do it. I can pick up teams N - Y after this week to conclude the team summaries in next week's thread.

 

[B.A.R.]

Still a machine, my man.

I will admit I plat 1-3 of these every week of the discussion in here and have probably hit 70+ on them.

Duquense o57.5 last week was very nice. Thank you.

 

[s--k]

The thread is definitely better when others contribute as well. It's a unique niche that's for sure and a fun challenge. I am having more fun handicapping and going through games than I can ever remember. Watching the actual games is not as fun though, so it's a trade off.

Just wish I had more time. So easy to get behind.

 

[s--k]

Thursday games

10/26 07:00 pm	308901 308902	Long Island Central Conn.					-3½ 48½
10/26 07:30 pm	308903 308904	So Carolina St NC Central					53½ -18½

 

[s--k]

Friday

10/27 07:00 pm

308905 308906

Brown Pennsylvania

55½ -10½

 

[s--k]

Last time CBS had a Thursday night NEC game there were a few live options up at various outlets to that may be the case tonight. Nobody had live action for the NCCU-Morgan game last Thursday though.

Long Island started 17 year old Tr Fr Chris Howell last Saturday vs Merrimack. He passed 4-16-48-0-1. That was a surprise though because Howell has played a lot this year and had much better numbers, twice hitting 60% and he has rushed for 80y with the bulk of that being spread evenly over a 3-game span in September. I wonder why he didn't run more last week. He does have just a 1-4 TD-INT ratio though. Stanzani started the 4 game winning streak to close 2022 and was 2023's starter until he was injured in week 2 and has not returned since. They actually started Howell week 3 at Baylor, but have also played and started Ethan Greenwood with Maurice Smith seeing some spot duty as well.

Central Connecticut previously allowed Delaware St QB Adams to have his best game of the season (16-28-301-3-2, 12rush-46y-TD), so might assume whomever goes for LIU will face less of a challenge than their other recent games. CCSU D had been giving up 40.75 ppg vs FCS and 449.5 ypg before they did the unthinkable last week, they held Wagner to just 3 pts! CCSU has played some good offenses like Brown and Duquesne, but they also allowed Stonehill 399y and Delaware St, who is a very bad team, 426y (7.3). So what they did at Wagner last week was unexpected even though Wagner was only scoring 18ppg in their other NEC games. In terms of yardage, Wagner slightly exceeded their NEC O output of 268ypg in gaining 299 on CCSU, but they were 0-3 scoring in the RZ last week and for the third time this year, Wagner only converted a singular 3rd down! So in highsight, the 3 pts that CCSU allowed is suprising, but the overall offensive numbers by Wagner weren't all that different than some of their other games. It wasn't necessarily something that CCSU figured out with their defense is what I'm thinking. I still expect the CCSU D to be poor. They played a poor offense last week, and they get another one this week.

Long Island was shut out last week. Before that they were averaging 21ppg and 319 ypg their last 3 (Maine, SHU, Duq). They will want to run it more often than they throw it, 37.5 avg rush att per game the last 4 with just 15.5 attempted passes. I would expect Howell to run as well assuming he is the starter. Just 3 runs last week, but in his 3 games where he say his most action he ran 8-10 times including some long ones and 2 TDs. If they go with Greenwood, he is also a runner, almost exclusively a runner (second leading rusher on the team). So either way, I would expect lots of running out of LIU.

Long Island started the year with 3 Unders as their D kept scoring down vs two FBS teams Ohio and Baylor and also limited a decent Bryant offense. Since then Unders are 2-2, last week went Over just because Merrimack got it themselves. Went Under 42 vs SHU and Under 51 vs Maine. Duquesne was the other Over.

CCSU had gone Over every game this year before last week. They mostly go Over because CCSU gives it up on D. CCSU is avg 27 ppg the last 4, but they had 51 on Delaware St. Their other 3 recent games they scored just 19 ppg. They did not rush it well vs Wagner or Duquesne the last two weeks. They did run for 498 (8.9) on Delaware St and 235 (5.1) on Brown. Elijah Howard rushed for 403 combined in those two games (10.15ypc), yet the last two weeks vs Wagner and Duq he was limited to just 130 ttl rush yards and 3.4 ypc.

CCSU has more potential on O. Long Island has the better D.

CCSU closed a 3 pt road fav at Wagner and now they are looking like a 3.5pt home dog vs a team that just got shutout last week? A little weird. I think the line moves at open towards CCSU. I can remember their line steaming when they played Stonehill, it was bet down when they played Brown and last week flipped from them being dogged to favored.

I think I will try and grab +3.5 anticipating it goes down after open. The total is tough at 48.5. I could see it near that on the final, guess I would lean Under, but I don't want to take it.

 

[s--k]

Anyone know about what time NCCU-Morgan line came out last Thursday? I missed the open I assume by 30 minutes to and hour and I think I saw the numbers for the first time around 1:00?

 

[s--k]

I don't know what to expect with the NC Central and South Carolina St game.

South Carolina St has had some very good offense in 3 of the last 4, but it has come vs Citadel, VA Lynchburg and Delaware St - 3 very bad teams. SC State has avg 511 ypg and 40.6 ppg while their D has limited those teams to just 176 ypg and 7.6 ppg! However, the other game in that span was vs another bad team in Tennessee Tech and Tenn Tech got them for 28 pts (one TD was scored in final minute) and 401y. That vastly exceeded the Tenn Tech season yard and offensive point averages.

Jackson St is the only comparable team SC State has played this year, but that was week 0 and I really don't think that is very applicable now. Still, SC State struggled pretty bad in that one.

Morgan St made things very hard on NCCU last week, which was expected although I did not anticipate just how hard it would be. NCCU held to 3 pts at HT and 201 ttl yards for the game (3.2 ypp)!

Maybe it was part Morgan D and part the bye week disrupting NCCU's momentum as they were really hot on an impressive 4 game win streak that included upsetting two CAA teams. Were on a 4 straight Over run until the Morgan game.

I know what NCCU is capable of on both sides of the ball, not real sure what SC State will come up with. 18.5 is a lot. Last year's game was a pick'em and SC State won by 2 at home (one of just 3 wins on their season). Last time here SC State was a 4.5 pt fav and won by 3. State has won the last 3. I'm sure NCCU wants to get this Mouse (why did it change monk-ey to mouse?) off their back, Richard has never beat them. Still 18.5 is a big number to cover in this kind of game. SC State has gone Under 5 of 6 this year and the only Over hit by .5 pt. So many Unders because of the noncompetitive games they've been in, either SC State getting blown out and not scoring or them doing the blowing out and other team not scoring. SC State doesn't get very good QB play, but it is better than Morgan's. This game could be closer to an Over than last week that is for sure.

 

[steponaduck]

heritage sports had live betting throughout the contest last week for morgan state and NCCU. up until the final 30 seconds when the outcome was decided after the late morgan state TD.

their FCS live betting is unprecedented, on TV games.

 

[s--k]

10/26 07:00 pm	308901 308902	Long Island Central Conn.					1 48½
10/26 07:30 pm	308903 308904	So Carolina St NC Central					54½ -15½

5dimes has moved the lines before the opens elsewhere. As expected, money coming on CCSU and the 18.5 on NCCU was proving to be too many

 

[s--k]

Well so much for good numbers. BOL opens CCSU -1.5 and NCCU -13.5

 

[s--k]

Well so much for good numbers. BOL opens CCSU -1.5 and NCCU -13.5

And BM even worse, CCSU -2.5 and NCCU -13

 

[s--k]

Bought SC State to +14 -125 at Bovada

 

[s--k]

DK is out pretty early. They went with CCSU -1 and NCCU -13.5. Assuming that is where they started, think I'm seeing these pretty close to whenever they actual open would've been.

Only was interested in trying to catch CCSU as a home dog. I do think SC State might keep that a game tonight though.

 

[s--k]

Late this week

10/28 12:00 pm	308907 308908	Tennessee Tech Robert Morris				42½ 3
10/28 12:00 pm	308909 308910	Howard Delaware St				-20½ 57½
10/28 12:00 pm	308911 308912	Duquesne Sacred Heart				-6½ 52½
10/28 12:00 pm	308913 308914	Columbia Yale				37½ -9½
10/28 12:00 pm	308915 308916	Stonehill Wagner				1 43½
10/28 12:30 pm	308917 308918	Lafayette Georgetown				-10½ 47½
10/28 01:00 pm	308919 308920	Merrimack St. Francis (PA)				49½ 3
10/28 01:00 pm	308921 308922	Bucknell Colgate				51½ 7
10/28 01:00 pm	308923 308924	Princeton Cornell				39½ 6
10/28 01:00 pm	308925 308926	Holy Cross Fordham				-9½ 65½
10/28 01:00 pm	308927 308928	Valparaiso Butler				49½ -10½
10/28 01:00 pm	308929 308930	Albany Maine				-14½ 48½
10/28 01:00 pm	308931 308932	New Hampshire Rhode Island				-6½ 65½
10/28 01:00 pm	308933 308934	Monmouth William & Mary				48½ pk
10/28 01:00 pm	308935 308936	Northern Iowa Illinois St				-2½ 52½
10/28 01:00 pm	308937 308938	Stetson Drake				53½ -14½
10/28 01:00 pm	308939 308940	Delaware Towson				7 49½
10/28 01:30 pm	308941 308942	Chattanooga VMI				-17½ 45½
10/28 01:30 pm	308943 308944	Tennessee Martin Gardner Webb				-9½ 58½
10/28 02:00 pm	308945 308946	South Dakota State South Dakota				-17½ 43½
10/28 02:00 pm	308947 308948	N. Carolina A & T Hampton				47½ 3
10/28 02:00 pm	308949 308950	Indiana State North Dakota				54½ -29½
10/28 02:00 pm	308951 308952	Morgan State Norfolk St				40½ 1
10/28 02:00 pm	308953 308954	Stony Brook Villanova				48½ -27½
10/28 02:00 pm	308955 308956	Missouri St Youngstown State				65½ 9
10/28 02:00 pm	308957 308958	East Tennessee State Furman				54 -21½
10/28 02:00 pm	308959 308960	Marist St Thomas				47½ 13
10/28 02:30 pm	308961 308962	Mercer Western Carolina				55½ -9½
10/28 03:00 pm	308963 308964	SE Missouri St Nicholls State				3 51½
10/28 03:00 pm	308965 308966	Bethune Cookman Grambling				55½ -4½
10/28 03:00 pm	308967 308968	Abilene Christian Southern Utah				58½ 4
10/28 03:00 pm	308969 308970	Texas A&M Commerce Houston Christian				45½ pk
10/28 03:00 pm	308971 308972	Lindenwood Tennessee St				49½ 13
10/28 03:00 pm	308973 308974	Miss. Valley St Alcorn St				39½ -17½
10/28 03:00 pm	308975 308976	The Citadel Samford				49½ 23
10/28 03:00 pm	308977 308978	Northern Colorado Montana				48½ -23½
10/28 03:00 pm	308979 308980	Jackson St Arkansas Pine Bluff				-19½ 51
10/28 03:30 pm	308981 308982	Alabama A&M Alabama St				45½ -2½
10/28 03:30 pm	308983 308984	Murray St North Dakota State				54½ -31½
10/28 03:30 pm	308985 308986	Campbell Richmond				57½ 1
10/28 04:00 pm	308987 308988	So Illinois Western Illinois				-27½ 51½
10/28 04:00 pm	308989 308990	Montana State Idaho				-4½ 61
10/28 04:00 pm	308991 308992	UC Davis Northern Arizona				6 52½
10/28 04:00 pm	308993 308994	Eastern Washington Portland State				-1½ 69½
10/28 04:00 pm	308995 308996	North Alabama Austin Peay				60½ -23½
10/28 04:00 pm	308997 308998	Incarnate Word Lamar				-13½ 48½
10/28 04:00 pm	308999 309000	Prairie View Florida A&M				50½ 21
10/28 04:00 pm	309001 309002	Dartmouth Harvard				49½ -10½
10/28 04:00 pm	309003 309004	Bryant Charleston Sou				-3½ 47½

10/28 05:00 pm	309005 309006	Texas Southern Southern				49½ -11½
10/28 05:00 pm	309007 309008	Morehead St San Diego				51 6
10/28 05:00 pm	309009 309010	Tarleton State Central Arkansas				62½ -13½
10/28 07:00 pm	309011 309012	Presbyterian Davidson				57½ 20
10/28 08:00 pm	309013 309014	Northwestern State McNeese St				51½ -3½
10/28 08:00 pm	309015 309016	Eastern Kentucky Utah Tech				-7½ 70½
10/28 09:00 pm	309017 309018	Idaho State CS Sacramento				65½ 16

One jumps out. Cornell -6 vs Princeton? That will not be the line.

 

[carolinablue]

Duquesne 6.5 on short list

 

[steponaduck]

davidson will run up and down against pres.

 

[carolinablue]

GTown and WCU maybe

 

[carolinablue]

Tarleton if 14.5

 

[carolinablue]

Southern and butler maybe

 

[steponaduck]

how is south carolina state going to score more than 20 tongiht?

 

[carolinablue]

how is south carolina state going to score more than 20 tongiht?

Haven’t looked at that one, who are you guys leaning

 

[carolinablue]

Lean CCSU +1.5 in other one

 

[s--k]

MGM has both live tonight, surprising. Bovada only has SC St - NCCU. BOL, BM, DK and BR nothing. I don't have Heritage, two years straight I tried and they won't let me.

 

[s--k]

Every Ivy League team has lost at least one as a favorite now and 5 teams are 2-1 in league play!

Brown at Penn is a game between the two best total Os in the Ivy. Wilcox for Brown and Sayin for Penn are the top 2 passing QBs in the league in terms of attempts, completions and yards. They each have a top receiver in the league with Richardson for Penn and Rocket for Brown. They have the most first downs gained and are 1st and 3rd in 3rd down conversion O. And they both find themselves at the bottom of the league in rushing O. Those are the similiarities. The difference is on defense. Brown is at the bottom of all the defensive categories, as they usually are. Penn is near the top as they were last year.

Penn's O has been pretty good all year. Brown got shut down last week in surprising fashion - three 3-and-outs, only two FDs in the 1H last week. Trailed 0-20 HT and 0-33 in the 3Q! That was an odd game for them. The way things go with these teams, it could be the dramatic win vs Princeton the week before was the reason they were so flat for this one.

Penn has a Princeton level D with a much better O. Brown did get going vs Princeton 2 weeks ago when they beat them at home, but it was a rough start. TD drive to open the game then the O struggled the rest of the half and they trailed 7-14 HT and 7-21 in the 2H. It got going and they were able to comeback and win that one in OT. It's going to be hard this week because Penn is going to be able to not only make it difficult on the Brown O like Princeton did, but also Penn is more like the Rhode Island or Bryant O that Brown allowed 6.7 and 6.8 ypp vs. URI and Bryant are both more passing teams yet vs Brown they both had their highest ypc rushing days. Penn is also not much of a running team, but vs Brown they should find more success than usual which has been the case the last two years as well.

So on paper, it's a tough matchup for Brown both offensively and defensively.

It appeared so last year as well ... Penn was 6-0 and a 13 pt road fav, but 2-4 Brown beat them! Wilcox got knocked out of the game in the 1Q and they still beat them with a big first half, Brown possessed the ball with like a 20 to 10 minute TOP edge. Penn only had the ball 3 possessions in the 1H, each reached Brown territory, but they missed a FG and threw an INT and ran out of clock in the 2Q in the other. Brown built a 24-7 HT lead with Penn's only TD coming on a KO return. Penn came back in the 2H, but they ran out of time end of the 2H as well and Brown won 34-31. That was the only game last year that Brown did not turn it over. In 2021 2-4 Penn beat 2-4 Brown 45-17 as a 3 pt home fav.

This felt like a different kind of Brown team this year until last week. They hung in there vs Harvard which they don't normally do. Won big as a favorite, which they don't normall do. Competed with Rhode Island which they don't normally do. And beat Princeton with their D coming up big in the 4Q to enable the comeback, again something that they don't normally do. So chance the Cornell game is an outlier, the exception not the rule and the Brown team that played games #1 - 5 is what we see this week. Penn is arguably the best team they have played though with Harvard the other. And at the same time, Brown is arguably the best team that Penn has played at least offensively. Penn D had an outlier game as well, the Georgetown game (allowed 421y and 39 pts).

Brown as dogs covered a 14.5 pt line at Harvard, covered an 11.5 pt line vs Rhode Island. Brown is 4-0 ATS as a dog this year with two outright wins. Penn is 3-2 ATS as fav; non cover vs Dartmouth in OT loss and GT in OT win. That was a three game stretch for Penn where they were involved in three straight 3 pt games.

Brown Overs were 5-0 this year before last week (avg total on the Overs 54.8). Penn Overs are 4-2, but the avg total is much lower, 40.3.

Guess I think Brown could bounce back and resemble the team we saw games 1 - 5. If it really was the Princeton hangover. No reason a Cornell D should've forced that kind of game. And if that happens then the Over could be in play as well.

 

[s--k]

Looking at the other Ivy games...I'd want Yale and Harvard, but don't believe I can lay it with either of them.

Yale might be broken. Yale just 1-2 SU in the Ivy and the game they won they did not play well at Dartmouth. Yale is being outgained by 122.6 ypg outside of the Morgan St game. Avg 292.6 ypg of O in those games (gained 521 on Morgan). Something is definitely off with this team this year, the O is not producing even vs a weaker team like SHU it wasn't good. About the only thing that could get them right is playing the worst team in the Ivy and that is Columbia. Columbia is extremely limited on O. They started Joe Bell at QB and the passing O was improved, he threw a couple picks and it didn't translate to points. I have to think even a struggling Yale, in their second to last home game of the year, in what seems like a wide-open league race, this is a must win game. Nobody has won an Ivy title with two league losses in like 40 years or something, so history is not on their side, but 5 teams are all bottlenecked at 2-1 and split titles with tied records is somewhat common in the league. Inside the locker room I would think they must believe they have a chance if they win out, they have yet to play two of the five teams above them and did beat one of the 5. Anyone else in the league right now who were to play Yale, I'd be more hesitant, and I'm hesitant now, don't like having to lay these pts, maybe a take a chunk of ML. At any rate Yale has to be able to beat Columbia ... everyone else has. Yale was off a loss to Penn last season, they were 4-2, 2-1 Ivy and they traveled to play Columbia, beat them 41-16. That game sparked their 4 game win streak to end the season. I bet they are drawing upon that to get it right and repeat how they closed last season after the Penn loss.

There is just no way Cornell will be a 6 pt fav over Princeton. I would guess Princeton closes favored. I have been as critical of Princeton as anyone this year. The one thing they have is a good defense and that defense has played well in every game. They did give up yards at Brown, but they kept Brown down pretty well for 2+or 3 quarters in that one. The Brown D turned that game as much to give them a chance as the Brown O. I have no problem with where this Princeton D is at right now. We saw how good they are last week in beating Harvard. Princeton has a limited offense, this is true. Stenstrom is a good Ivy QB though. When the season began he had all new receivers to throw to, some new lineman in front of him from what had been an underachieving OL unit for a couple seasons. As this season wears on these things should and will improve, it's not like they are somehow without talent, they just lacked experience and cohesiveness. The gameplan and the way the OL played vs a strong Harvard DL last week is outstanding. Harvard, of all teams, Harvard had zero sacks last week and Princeton passed it 37x. Last year Princeton had 23 pts off of 5 Cornell turnovers, and something like that could happen again. They turned Harvard over 3x. They turned Brown over 3x. It is a tough D to go against. The Cornell win vs Brown last week jumps out, sure. This is a Cornell team who lost to Bucknell, and Colgate. Brown closed a 6 pt road fav at Cornell. And now Cornell is going to be a 6 pt home fav against Princeton? Princeton doesn't have let downs after beating Harvard. They have beat them 6 straight years now, they expect to beat them. They expect to win these games, it is what they historically do. If Princeton was laying 6 that is one thing. Princeton +6? All day please.

Dartmouth at Harvard is a tough game. I would rather have Harvard, especially off the loss. Some of the passing inefficiency with DePrima bit them last week vs a good D and Dartmouth is a good D as well. I assume Dartmouth will try and do the same thing, just make him throw. He only gained 43 gross yards on 17 att last week, after taking out sacks and negative runs he finished with just 10 net positive yards. And he passed 15-for-36, 3 INTs, third game this year below 50%. Wait, am I talking myself into Dartmouth? I don't like the Dartmouth O and situationally don't like them either. Dartmouth held to just 215 ttl yards last week vs Columbia (3.7ypp) and held to 251 ttl yards vs Penn (3.6ypp). They've had some better games, their game vs Yale was pretty good as was the yardage but not the finishes in the Colgate game. Harvard should be able to rally for the win here. Laying the pts? I am reluctant to pull the trigger on laying it with either Harvard or Yale this week. I could maybe commit to a partial ML play - the way the Ivy has gone this year that is risky as well.

 

[EL CAPO]

Every Ivy League team has lost at least one as a favorite now and 5 teams are 2-1 in league play!

Brown at Penn is a game between the two best total Os in the Ivy. Wilcox for Brown and Sayin for Penn are the top 2 passing QBs in the league in terms of attempts, completions and yards. They each have a top receiver in the league with Richardson for Penn and Rocket for Brown. They have the most first downs gained and are 1st and 3rd in 3rd down conversion O. And they both find themselves at the bottom of the league in rushing O. Those are the similiarities. The difference is on defense. Brown is at the bottom of all the defensive categories, as they usually are. Penn is near the top as they were last year.

Penn's O has been pretty good all year. Brown got shut down last week in surprising fashion - three 3-and-outs, only two FDs in the 1H last week. Trailed 0-20 HT and 0-33 in the 3Q! That was an odd game for them. The way things go with these teams, it could be the dramatic win vs Princeton the week before was the reason they were so flat for this one.

Penn has a Princeton level D with a much better O. Brown did get going vs Princeton 2 weeks ago when they beat them at home, but it was a rough start. TD drive to open the game then the O struggled the rest of the half and they trailed 7-14 HT and 7-21 in the 2H. It got going and they were able to comeback and win that one in OT. It's going to be hard this week because Penn is going to be able to not only make it difficult on the Brown O like Princeton did, but also Penn is more like the Rhode Island or Bryant O that Brown allowed 6.7 and 6.8 ypp vs. URI and Bryant are both more passing teams yet vs Brown they both had their highest ypc rushing days. Penn is also not much of a running team, but vs Brown they should find more success than usual which has been the case the last two years as well.

So on paper, it's a tough matchup for Brown both offensively and defensively.

It appeared so last year as well ... Penn was 6-0 and a 13 pt road fav, but 2-4 Brown beat them! Wilcox got knocked out of the game in the 1Q and they still beat them with a big first half, Brown possessed the ball with like a 20 to 10 minute TOP edge. Penn only had the ball 3 possessions in the 1H, each reached Brown territory, but they missed a FG and threw an INT and ran out of clock in the 2Q in the other. Brown built a 24-7 HT lead with Penn's only TD coming on a KO return. Penn came back in the 2H, but they ran out of time end of the 2H as well and Brown won 34-31. That was the only game last year that Brown did not turn it over. In 2021 2-4 Penn beat 2-4 Brown 45-17 as a 3 pt home fav.

This felt like a different kind of Brown team this year until last week. They hung in there vs Harvard which they don't normally do. Won big as a favorite, which they don't normall do. Competed with Rhode Island which they don't normally do. And beat Princeton with their D coming up big in the 4Q to enable the comeback, again something that they don't normally do. So chance the Cornell game is an outlier, the exception not the rule and the Brown team that played games #1 - 5 is what we see this week. Penn is arguably the best team they have played though with Harvard the other. And at the same time, Brown is arguably the best team that Penn has played at least offensively. Penn D had an outlier game as well, the Georgetown game (allowed 421y and 39 pts).

Brown as dogs covered a 14.5 pt line at Harvard, covered an 11.5 pt line vs Rhode Island. Brown is 4-0 ATS as a dog this year with two outright wins. Penn is 3-2 ATS as fav; non cover vs Dartmouth in OT loss and GT in OT win. That was a three game stretch for Penn where they were involved in three straight 3 pt games.

Brown Overs were 5-0 this year before last week (avg total on the Overs 54.8). Penn Overs are 4-2, but the avg total is much lower, 40.3.

Guess I think Brown could bounce back and resemble the team we saw games 1 - 5. If it really was the Princeton hangover. No reason a Cornell D should've forced that kind of game. And if that happens then the Over could be in play as well.

do you have any plans to come back to the FBS ?.........i believe NIL has only highlighted what already existed - the stars have always had preferential treatment

seems more then ever FCS players are transferring to FBS for NIL grabs as well - i don't believe there is anyway to get a more pure game or morality by only doing FCS.......just my opinion

 

[s--k]

do you have any plans to come back to the FBS ?.........i believe NIL has only highlighted what already existed - the stars have always had preferential treatment

seems more then ever FCS players are transferring to FBS for NIL grabs as well - i don't believe there is anyway to get a more pure game or morality by only doing FCS.......just my opinion

I think about this. Then I remember all the things I don't like about big time college football. Not like Rice or Marshall or Bowling Green is big time college football as much as Texas or West Virginia or Ohio State is. But it is just easier for me to break the entire FBS off because of what has bothered me so much.

I have had a growing disdain for how what I call major college football, FBS, is marketed, covered, broadcast and analyzed. It is oversaturated and overexposed and everyone wants to get their piece and run with it. Honestly, it hardly even feels like college football now. The coaches are super celebrities. The players are super celebrities. All the money that has gone into the sport, I think it has ruined it really. At least ruined what I felt about it when I started watching it in the 80s and 90s. And maybe it was always there. Now it has just grown to the point that it became a major turnoff. I resented the best teams in FBS, I really just want them all to lose every week. It is pretty hard to independently handicap a sport with that kind of prejudice.

There is no turning that back. I envision some scenario where the FBS splits and at that point maybe there is an opportunity for me to get back into the lower half of what is now FBS. I don't know.

FCS is weird, but there is something about it that I really like. Or I just like the feeling that I get in learning and following it. I like the broadcasters actually talk about the players and game on the field I am watching and not cross-promoting other games and hyping other players. I like there aren't any big picture health of the game or direction of the sport discussions when I watch FCS. It's about the game. Not some overpayed slick dressed commentator standing on a soap box or trying to make everyone see how smart they are.

FCS feels like college football. Small towns, small campuses, small stadiums. FBS feels like semi-pro. I like NFL, I accept that for what it is. I don't want to accept what major college football has become. So I leave.

I hate games and be-all end-all matchups designed to draw revenue producing TV ratings getting shoved in my face "the best games the best teams" - I'm done with that.

If I had the choice of following Division ll college football or major college football again, I'd go Dll. Now that I can bet FCS, I'm pretty happy. The games are not as exciting, the players are not as good, there is less drama. What I've found out is that I don't need that because everything else I'm not getting or what I actually am getting out of this makes up for it.

And I want to add, these mega-conferences in the FBS - I HATE. The tipping point this summer was really the implosion of the PAC 12. USC and UCLA going to the Big Ten. Screw that. Texas and Oklahoma in the SEC. No thank you. I can't stand that. I don't really need or want games of OU vs the SEC or USC vs the Big Ten. I liked the Big Xll. I loved the PAC 12, to think that it could simply vanish all because of some TV/media companies - no. No, don't want to be apart of that, I don't want to support any of that and have no interest in where the media money has driven all these changes.

Now the FCS has some large conferences where the scheduling is such that teams do not play their entire conference. I don't like that. And I hate the playoff at the FBS level, pretty much hate everything about it and always have, the FCS has their own playoff and I have some significant disagreements with their process. But I look at it like this. If you move from a neighborhood or town because you don't like how things are going or what changes have taken place, you can't move somewhere else and then want to change it into your ideal vision of whatever. I moved to the FCS, they have certain things a certain way that I am going to have to accept if I want to be here. All I can do is leave places I no longer like and it isn't right to go somewhere else and complain about what I don't like because I just showed up and they have their own thing. If and when I don't like it here, I'll go somewhere else again.

 

[s--k]

Trying to work down the list. Not much I really want to get in line for at the open. Will be a lot of wait and see games.

Tenn Tech has been starting a Tr Fr QB Jordyn Potts the last two weeks. Played pretty well at SC State, struggled vs SEMO. Tenn Tech Unders are 5-0 run including an Under 37. Avg total in this span 50.6. Scoring O has been a problem, just 11ppg over the last 5. Very good run D vs everyone (SEMO just 1.9ypc). Avg RM total is 52.3, 3-3 O/U. RM decent at QB, poor D.

Could maybe lean towards Howard, but 20.5 is a lot to cover for them even vs bad Delaware St. Howard starts slow so often. Getting off to a good start would be key to build upon a lead as the game goes on rather than continuously playing catch-up. They jumped out on Robert Morris early, so it is possible.

Might seem a little too easy, but Duquesne less than 7 looks good. SHU has just been so bad at QB this year. Their D has kept opposing scores down to keeps games close (allowing just 24 ppg). SHU just 1 of 5 TDs in RZ last week. Can’t score TDs in RZ (0 of 4 vs Yale, 1 of 4 vs LIU). Duq nearly let SFU comeback on them in the 2H, led 31-7, won 38-35. Good O, D a little suspect, might worry about that on the road. LIU had their best offensive game of the year at home vs Duq 4 weeks ago. Duq was -9 here in 2021 and lost by 18. Game went to OT last year with Duq winning by 7.

Wagner can’t score, 0 pts on 3 RZ trips last week! Scored 3, 7, 3, 30, 17, 0, 16 this year. 43.5 is actually a high total for their FCS games (avg total 41.5 last 4 vs FCS – Unders 3-1 in those). Stonehill limited O as well, 22 pts in OT last week, 34 on Merrimack, 10 on SFU, 0 Fordham, 23 GT. Interesting that both Wagner and Stonehill scored a lot on Merrimack. Think Wagner had some pts off turnovers in that one. Last week was first time all year Stonehill finished with more total yards than their opponents.

First time Lafayette has to play as the top dog in the Patriot now. Can they follow up the Holy Cross win and not let down this week? I think they will win but not interested in laying the pts. Maybe take the pts with Georgetown. GT has outgained everyone they played this year except for Columbia. Outgained Colgate by 208 last week and lost (1 TD in 5 RZ trips and 3 INTs). Sure Colgate is not very good. Upset Fordham last month with a +178 yard edge. GT O avg 440 ypg their last 4 and that includes 421 on a good Penn D. Penn did lead by DDs twice in the 2H so I call that game kind of a fluke. 4-1 Over run. Lafayette should limit the Hoya rushing O – which sounds funny after Holy Cross just ran for 429 on them! But vs conventional rushing Os… like Monmouth who is good run team, Laf held them to just 59y (11 TFLs), held Bucknell negative 24y (14 TFLs) and Princeton to just 3 yards (9 TFLs). So this week I would expect it mostly to be up to GT QB Tyler Knoop who is pretty good when he isn’t throwing INTs (8 on the year, all coming in the last 4 weeks). Lafayette did allow Princeton to pass for a season high 310y and 74%. The situation is good for Georgetown. Lafayette has been so good all year though, just think vs a good GT O with this kind of spread, off that huge win for Lafayette, the GT is the better way to go.

St Francis topped 200y passing for the first time since week 1 last game. Last year they averaged 247ypg and passed for 412 on Merrimack! Turnovers continue to hurt them, -2 TO margin last week, league worst -7 on the year. Not good at a lot of things this SFU team. Merrimack can actually win the league title still despite starting poorly this year (1-3 overall and lost first league game to Wagner). 3-0 SU and ATS run since then. Good D. Good run O. Not good passing team, they don’t even try much. SFU not a great D, allowed SHU to have one of their better games running (238y, 4.7ypc). SFU won 52-23 last year. A lot seems different right now (9-3 then, 2-5 now). I would like Merrimack, worry is they are so one-dimensional that if their run game isn't good to start and if Doyle has one of his better days passing, can Merrimack comeback?

Colgate has been outgained by 299 yards combined the last two weeks yet won both vs Dartmouth and Georgetown. Beat Cornell before that. 3 straight underdog wins for them! Some of their pts have come on defense, but the last 3 games they are avg 30ppg. Their previous 3 games vs FCS they avg 10.6! Their D hasn’t gotten any better, allowing 446y over their win streak (allowed 415ypg prior). Overs on a 3-0 run, 1-2 before that. Would be liking Bucknell here as a 7 pt dog, but QB Rucker DNP last week and if you’ve read anything on Bucknell you know he has provided an improved offense. Without him they had their worst FCS game on offense and lost to Lehigh. It’s an ankle injury I believe and he was dressed last week, but not good enough to play. It’s a shame because fading Colgate off of all those unexpected wins and some misleading wins now they are -7, that is a good fade spot.

Have to leave for a while. Will jump back in later. Last week there wasn't much I was excited about at open either. Might be the time of year on that where it is better to react to the moves after open.

 

[carolinablue]

I think you hit in two that I mentioned early in the thread - GTown and Duquesne, as I will probably take a shot on the Hoyas if I can get 10.5 or more. Duquesne will be a play if I can get -6.5 but not sure that will happen as I project -7.5 at open. Not seeing a ton this week but going through my list now so will add a few more potentials shortly.

 

[carolinablue]

Southern at -13.5 or less
Tarleton at +11.5 or more
Alcorn at -20.5 or less

 

[carolinablue]

Merrimack -2.5 or less

 

[carolinablue]

Valpo is bad but not sure I trust butler at anything higher than 9.5

 

[s--k]

Valpo is bad but not sure I trust butler at anything higher than 9.5

Yeah, here is what I came up with on that one:

Believe it or not Butler was actually +9.5 home vs Valpo last year! That was game #6 for the new Butler staff and they won 26-25. Valpo opened last year 4-0 ATS. Including that Butler game, Valpo is just 2-11 ATS since then, 0-6 ATS this season. Until last week, their Pioneer League games have been close. Davidson beat them by 21, prior to that their 3 league losses came by an avg of 5 ppg while being outgained in those by 51.6 ypg. Again, Davidson got them by 21 and outgained them by 146y last week. Butler is off an impressive 27 pt win vs Dayton (only +53 ttl yards though). Before that they were just 2-2 ATS vs the Pioneer, last week moved them to 3-2 ATS. They are 2-1 ATS as a favorite winning by 10 laying 8.5 on the closing line at Stetson, winning by just 10 laying 21 vs Presbyterian (think it opened 14 they wouldn’t have covered that either) and then last week winning by 27 as a 6.5pt road fav vs Dayton. It seems kind of easy because Butler is pretty good relatively speaking and Valpo is bad just losing to Davidson 21-42. Davidson is stronger than Butler. Davidson led 35-7 vs Valpo last week, but had to score with about 1min left to get back to a 21 pt margin and cover. 10.5 seems ok, however this line is going to rise at open so might be careful where it goes. Butler only beating Stetson and Presbyterian by 10 each gives some pause.

 

[s--k]

MGM offering live again tonight.

 

[s--k]

5dimes lines has Holy Cross -9.5 at Fordham. HC is in a tail spin, losing 2 of last 3 straight up, 0-3 ATS while their D is allowing 419ypg and 34ppg vs Lafayette, Bucknell and Harvard. Allowing 53% 3rd down conversion their last two, 46% through their last 3. After Fordham settled in with their new QB CJ Montes, their O has been good, but did have one off game vs Georgetown where they failed to top 260y of O. If their O is off, they don’t win with D – Georgetown got 437y on them including 221 rush yards. GT averaged 142 rush ypg in their other 6 games (3.8 ypc). They ran for 221 and 6.0 on Fordham. Vs Lehigh they allowed 390y, 7.0 ypp and 35 pts (ssn highs for Lehigh); Lehigh was avg 279 ypg in their other games (4.45). So this Fordham D isn’t a good unit either. HC O struggling on 3rd down some (38%) over the recent 3 game period, but also they’ve been converting 7-of-12 on 4th down in those games. Other than some of that the HC O is going to be hard for Fordham to stop. 65.5 is the highest total for either team this year. You’d assume offense has it’s way here, unless these teams move the ball without big plays and get yards while the clock runs on sustained drives – in that way the score could be lower than expected. It is hard to not see both of them getting into the 30s. At +9.5 and Ov65.5. The last 4 years that at least one of these teams had a winning record; 2022 53-52 OT, 2021 52-24, 2020 34-24, 2019 49-27 all Holy Cross wins. What is odd is the line at HC last year was +10.5. And that was Fordham with Tim DeMorat at QB and I suppose their O was more explosive and he was more dependable at QB than Montes, but Montes has been pretty good. Just weird that the away line now for HC with all their issues this year is not adjusted, at least at this early 5dimes line look. Think it goes lower.

Albany at Maine is still being played following the Lewiston shooting. The shelter in place order has been lifted. Huge road favorite line here for Albany. Albany is really good, but laying over 2 TDs on the road? Albany has performed better at home than on the road this year. Against just FCS, Albany is avg 433ypg and 33ppg at home while allowing just 301ypg and 11ppg vs Fordham, Villanova and Rhode Island. On the road, Albany’s O avg is 323ypg, 26ppg and the D is giving up 315ypg with 24ppg allowed vs Morgan, Towson and New Hampshire. Those are the averages, the road O did exceed that vs UNH, but so did the D give up more vs them than their avg. Albany has been a TD+ favorite twice this year, both away and came away 0-2 ATS and both were close at the end, one went to OT. Maine’s O has been putting up yards like crazy the last 4, 441ypg, but have fallen behind in each of the last 3. 7-28 HT at Campbell. 7-10 HT home vs Long Island. 17-28 and then 24-35 HT at Richmond. Maine D hasn’t been good. Campbell did what they do to most teams vs them. Long Island’s O was a little better than normal vs Maine. Richmond had a coming out party vs Maine’s D…487y and 42 pts, something they have not come close to in two games since. Ablany’s D should be good enough to limit Maine’s O and Maine’s D isn’t that good to limit the Albany O, but how good is Albany’s O going to be here? I don’t know what to expect in this one, just surprised to see such a high line.

I thought Rhode Island would really put it on the line last week at Albany after dropping the Richmond game the week before, instead they were blowout out. They trailed by 32 in the 4th Q, 35-10 F. It was every bit as bad as their game at Villanova except there is no weather excuse this time. Now at 4-4, they must know there will be no playoff this season, for the third season in a row when they thought they were good enough to get there. The O has failed them at times, the D has failed them at times. New Hampshire was in a similar position 2 weeks ago, sitting at 2-3. UNH was able to win a game that could’ve gone either way vs Albany saving their season. URI’s season? It is hard to know how they respond here. Because of the potential they have and often play with on offense and because of the defensive issues UNH often has, I’m tempted to want to take them at nearly a TD here. URI is a 45% 3rd down O on the season, but over the last 3 games where they ware 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU they are converting just 29.5% and have lost 5 TOs in the last two games. Scored just 2 TDs on 8 RZ trips the last two. Tough times for the URI O. Can’t trust them. I do trust the New Hampshire O even though I have a nervousness when I need their D to deliver. UNH has played well on the road vs bad teams Stonehill, Stony Brook and nearly won two other games at C Mich and at Delaware. Lean UNH, but don’t think I lay the pts.

William and Mary is on the short list of most disappointing teams this year, 3 game losing streak – lost twice as favorites. Towson outscored them 31-7 in the 2H last week! Elon outscored them 14-0 in the 2H 3 games ago. Monmouth wasn’t bad last week, just got off to a slow start, actually ended with a 460-375 (6.7-6.4) ttl yard edge in the 2 pt loss at Elon. Hard to know what happens here. Monmouth may be the better team, but at a pick ‘em I can’t take them at W&M.

Illinois State has lost two very close games, one was last week vs YSU and this could be a tough spot for them after losing on a last second FG. The last time they lost a game in this fashion vs EIU they played Lindenwood the next week and Lindenwood should be pretty overmatched vs even a mid-pack MVFC team and Ill St only led 20-14 HT, they did win 48-17 and outgained them by 207y as they should’ve. But slow start there, could it happen again? At 4-3 if they win out they could believe they have a shot at the playoff, all of the games they have left are winnable and that would start with Northern Iowa. UNI is off their most impressive and surprising win of the season in terms of how it happened, a shutout win vs UND 402-187 ttl yard edge. If Illinois St’s head is right, this could be an Over game. Ill St has a better O than D and UNI’s best side of the ball is also the O. I think Illinois State is very similar to YSU and UNI’s game vs YSU was 44-41 in the Uni-dome. This game is not in the Uni-dome, but both teams should score. UNI is on a 3 game Under steak and 5-1-1 overall Under. They games have been onesided which led to the Unders. This game shouldn’t be one-sided, should be pretty tightly contested. Illinois St is 4-3 to the Over, one Under hit by 1 pt and one was a 41-0 game on a 45 pt total. I think this is a tough game to pick the winner, but Over 52.5 looks appealing.

Drake on a 4 game winning streak! Who knew! 14.5 pt home fav vs Stetson, man that is a lot. They did win 52-21 last time here, but their other 3 Pioneer games have been decided by 7, 6 and 5 vs Morehead, Valpo and San Diego. Pretty inconsistent team offensively, solid team defensively. Stetson did lose to St Thomas by 32, the week after Drake beat them by 31 … the other Stetson Pioneer games have been decided by 10, 10 and 4. Last year’s game was 24-17. I am going to take Stetson here if it is actually 14 or more just on the principle of Drake not deserving of this kind of favorite spot unless the transitive property vs St Thomas applies, I do not think it does.

Delaware is pretty much the CAA darling right now because they have taken care of business and also because the would-be favorites to win the league have been losing. The strength of schedule is pretty weak. Towson is hot right now, 3-0 ATS run vs CAA, two outright upset wins and the loss was just by 7 in position late to try and tie. Last year Delaware won 24-10 with a huge yardage edge. Games in 2018 and 19 were close, but Delaware wasn’t as good. I’d like to play on Towson right now and also have wanted to find a time or a team to play against Delaware, they’ve just been so much better than everyone else on their schedule the last 3. I don’t know if 7 is enough, the way that Towson has played the last 3 it is – I’d like a little more insurance I suppose.

Hesitation with Chattanooga is the Furman game on deck looms, that is a must win. Of course the VMI game is also a must win as UTC already has 1 conference loss, but the Furman game has big look ahead potential. Mocs seem like a better home team than away in terms of yardage differential. The easier teams have been played at home though so maybe it is just that. UTC has crushed two of the three bad teams they’ve played. The one they didn’t, Wofford was a likely WCU look-ahead spot. VMI hung in the closing number vs Samford but were outgained by 106y and dodged some bullets (Samford just 1 TD on 4 RZ trips and Samford missed a FG). VMI won and covered vs Citadel even though those teams appeared pretty equal. For me, the look-ahead here is a no go on UTC. If this were to get to 3 TDs or something maybe I could consider VMI.

Tenn Martin is on a 0-3 ATS run, their QB play has been pretty poor in 3 of the last 4. Talking 43% last week, 46% before the bye and 43% vs UNA a few games back. The only good recent passing game was vs Tenn State. Not a very capable passing team, they really need the running game to hum in order to put up points. Run D is real good. Vs decent offenses like EIU and UNA they can be passed on. Gardner Webb is not much of a passing team right now with their QB situation if they are still starting the Fr Jaylen King since Caldwell apparently got hurt vs RM. They had King pass 35x his first game at AP, that wasn’t a very good plan. Last week he went 14-18-185-1-1, much better. He runs, 111y the last two games. GW D is pretty good as well; held EKU 125y below their FCS ssn avg. AP did gain 475y on them, they kept the scoring down though, AP had just 13 pts in the 1H, only 20 pts mid 3Q. AP got a pick-six in that one. 58.5 pts is a high total. GW had a big offensive day last week, EKU plays no D. 445y and 35 GW pts there is the high water mark for all their games this year – about 100y over their FCS ssn avg and 9 pts more than their scoring average. Unless this Fr QB is going to start an offensive surge for them? 3 of last 4 UTM games have gone Under and the one that went Over happened because of OT (42 pts in regulation on a 50.5 pt total). EKU-GW went Over last week, like lots of EKU games do. The GW-AP game went Over because AP scored with 1min left with their starters in instead of taking a knee in a 20pt game (they must’ve wanted to win by 27 for some reason, or for the Over?). Both these Ds should control the action.

Don’t know how many South Dakota can score on the Jacks? SDSU let UND and Ill St score 21 each on them. Don’t think USD gets there. SDSU let UNI score 6 and SIU score 10. It will probably be between 10-20 I’d guess, they scored 24 in the win at NDSU. SDSU O was off last week, the D was still good, kept a limited SIU O down until late in the game. That should make for a want-to-play-better effort and focus game from SDSU in this one and USD is going to be on everyone’s radar with them being ranked so high this deep into the season. USD played an off game as well at Indiana State. Were off the game winning FG as time expired game vs YSU with this game on deck. Completely understandable B game last week. So they too, know they didn’t play well and I expect best effort here given the opponent and they’re at home. I really don’t want to lay the pts against them in this spot and don’t feel it taking them either. SDSU is 0-2 ATS in true road games. USD is 3-1 ATS at home with only spread miss by .5 pt vs St Thomas. It will be interesting to see how this one unfolds. I do think SDSU is beatable, but I’m holding that pick for November 11th, don’t want it to happen vs anyone else.

This is an example of the kind of teams the CAA have added of late, North Carolina A&T, can’t score. Avg just 10 ppg their last 3, went 1-2 ATS in those. Lost by 23 to Richmond being outgained by 112y. Lost by 15 to Delaware being outgained by 183y and lost by 23 to Nova being outgained by 365y! A&T averages just 171ypg over the last 3! Bad. Except vs Nova, the D has limited Delaware about 100y under their avg and Richmond had been averaging 407 in the two games previous to A&T, A&T held them 150y below that. First year HC is former W&M DC, so you know he knows D. Hampton O seems broken, scored 31 and 497y vs Richmond, next week scored 27 and 391y vs Campbell, next week scored 10 and 196y vs Monmouth and last week scored just 3 and 216y on Delaware. Maybe the competition is just getting that much better and they can’t matchup. Hampton D has been pretty bad through the last 3 games. I don’t know about this game. First reaction would be Under. A&T has some recent Overs, though. Last week went Over 41.5 because of a pick-six mid 4Q to make the final 43. Went comfortably Under 46.5 vs Delaware. Before that it is harder to nail down…two Overs vs Nova and Norfolk and two Unders vs Elon and NCCU. I don’t think I see much here, it would be Under I suppose.

North Dakota has to be pissed. Win maybe the biggest game in program history then go on the road and get shut out for the first time in like 10 years. Indiana State should be a good team to take out frustration against. Won 42-7 last year. UND has been really good at home, avg margin of victory in 3 games not from the Pioneer league is 26ppg. Vs what I’ll call good teams on the road for Indiana State and I’ll include FBS because Indiana State hasn’t played many road games or many good teams on the road. Ind St loses by an average score of 43-7. Indiana State has covered a couple games since Chambers came back, but both of those results can be explained away as flat spots for both UNI and USD. Exact opposite for UND. I may have to play the Hawks here even though I feel like I have had a bad read on Indiana State.

Morgan at Norfolk. I don’t have any interest in looking into this one.

Would like Villanova. Line is high, 27.5, but them or nothing. I am actually really looking forward to the Villanova – Delaware game to end the year. I think this Villanova team vs FCS teams is really good. I know they lost at Albany, but I actually thought that would happen, doesn’t hurt my opinion of them. Nova just shutout Elon and outgained them by 377y. They only allowed one offensive TD vs A&T (KO ret TD for AT) and outgained them by 365y. Albany was a tough matchup. They beat URI by 26 and outgained them 218. They just have the capability to really dominate inferior teams. Even a team like New Hampshire with a lesser D, they held Stony Brook to just 14 pts in their 45-14 win last week. Fordham beat SB 26-7 and Fordham is not known for D. Maybe there was some weather there I can’t remember. Hell, Maine put it on Stony Brook! Bottom line, Nova should do what UNH did, get into the 40s for sure, maybe more if they are dialed in. SB gained 363y on UNH (6.6ypp), they will have less vs Nova.

Last week was the first game I went against YSU and I’ve bet every one of their games. This line is weird, YSU -9, it is saying that Illinois State is equal to Missouri State? They are not. Missouri State still has some O with the backup QB now that Clark is out for the year, but he is a lesser QB and their offense therefore is also lesser version. YSU’s pass D is a liability, don’t remember it might be second to last in pure yards in MVFC. I’m thinking of the passing teams they have played, UNI, ILL St, even USD with Pachot instead of Clark, I think all those offenses are better and more challenging than what Missouri State currently has. YSU has put up 41 pts and 470y on Ill St, 31 pts and 445y on USD, 41 pts and 418y on UNI. VS the best recent D they have played in SIU they only scored 31 pts and 323y. YSU O has been very strong all year and vs a team like Missouri State it is going to be strong again. Missouri St just faced Murray St and W ILL. It’s going to be harder this week. They allowed 534y and 38 pts at home vs NDSU and 407y and 33 pts vs offensively challenged SIU. Earlier in the year UTM ran for 400y on them. Hard to not see a big day for this YSU O. The Over is high at 65.5, but I may protect a YSU play with the Over because if YSU is up like 38-20 or something 4Q they could start subbing players and what happened to them vs RM could happen again. That was a 28-31pt line though. I really can’t believe this line is looking like 9. SIU was -13 vs them and YSU is better than SIU.

Another SoCon flat spot - look-ahead, lots of these the way the scheduling has been. I can’t play on Furman off the big WCU win with UTC on deck. And who wants ETSU vs anyone unless maybe it’s Wofford.

Marist has been amazingly outgained to the tune of 367-669, a net -302 combined yards and won the last two games vs Presbyterian and San Diego! I like that St Thomas got the bad taste of the Drake loss out of their mouth with a get right win at Stetson. Now they return home to the scene of the crime where they lost at home by 31 last time out. I think they bring a really strong effort back at home in this one and Marist might not be quite as bad as the last two games, but they are still bad.

The next big game Mercer wins will be the first. Let me say, the next big game Mercer covers will be their first. This is a tricky one for WCU. Been so good all year, lost a tough one vs Furman and lost it in a fashion that Mercer could try to duplicate. Not like Mercer is near as good, but they have been trying to run the ball more and more this year even though they aren’t that good at it. Furman controlled the game on the ground (48att-334y). Mercer also does not have a QB like Huff either. Mercer can play some D. It is hard to not want to back the WCU O instead. Super RB Desmond Reid only played a few snaps last week after being injured in the UTC game, his availability and health is a concern. The WCU D got exposed last week (and earlier – allowing 520ypg vs EKU, UTC and Furman), their O may not be at full strength … Mercer has just been such a disappointment this year, are they good enough here to get a cover if nothing else? Mercer lost to both Furman and UTC largely because of their offensive struggles there, or the kind of D Furman and UTC was able to play against them. WCU isn’t like that. WCU can overpower them offensively. I don’t know which way I would go in this one.

SEMO at Nicholls is a weird non-conference game at this point in the year. I questioned the other day, is Nicholls kind of good? Not sure anyone knows. Beat some bad teams, that is about it. Think I would like SEMO here. There can’t be a better 3-4 team if you know the details behind 3 of their 4 losses. That is behind them now. One concern, with a RB the nature of Geno Hess, why can’t they run the ball? 68y 1.9ypc last week. Better vs EIU and UCA. Only 64y 2.3 on EKU? I don’t know. That is weird. Fortunately for them if the run isn’t going they are really good through the air too with DeLaurent. The SEMO D hasn’t always been very consistent. I am not sure Nicholls is a very threatening offense either though. SEMO as a small 3 or less road fav I can support. No troublesome look-ahead for SEMO, only RM on deck. Nicholls however does have a huge game vs UIW next.

 

[carolinablue]

Yeah, here is what I came up with on that one:

Believe it or not Butler was actually +9.5 home vs Valpo last year! That was game #6 for the new Butler staff and they won 26-25. Valpo opened last year 4-0 ATS. Including that Butler game, Valpo is just 2-11 ATS since then, 0-6 ATS this season. Until last week, their Pioneer League games have been close. Davidson beat them by 21, prior to that their 3 league losses came by an avg of 5 ppg while being outgained in those by 51.6 ypg. Again, Davidson got them by 21 and outgained them by 146y last week. Butler is off an impressive 27 pt win vs Dayton (only +53 ttl yards though). Before that they were just 2-2 ATS vs the Pioneer, last week moved them to 3-2 ATS. They are 2-1 ATS as a favorite winning by 10 laying 8.5 on the closing line at Stetson, winning by just 10 laying 21 vs Presbyterian (think it opened 14 they wouldn’t have covered that either) and then last week winning by 27 as a 6.5pt road fav vs Dayton. It seems kind of easy because Butler is pretty good relatively speaking and Valpo is bad just losing to Davidson 21-42. Davidson is stronger than Butler. Davidson led 35-7 vs Valpo last week, but had to score with about 1min left to get back to a 21 pt margin and cover. 10.5 seems ok, however this line is going to rise at open so might be careful where it goes. Butler only beating Stetson and Presbyterian by 10 each gives some pause.

You nailed it as I can see another 27-17 type of game as I have watched some butler here and there this season and they fall into what I call “sleepwalk” mode at times. What I mean is it’s like they forget the game is 60 mins and just go through the motions with sloppy play on and off, which allows DOA teams to hang around. They could (and probably should) win today by at least 20, but not sure I will lay 10.5 even though I have a feeling the line might cross 14 soon thereafter.

 

[carolinablue]

MGM offering live again tonight.

Next season will be interesting for me in terms of where I end up playing as NC has stated they expect to have all the approved online options ready to go by early next summer.

 

[carolinablue]

I am tempted by Jackson State and FAMU yet again, please slap me haha

 

[s--k]

The Alcorn loss definitely took wind out of Grambling’s sails with their unexpected home loss to Alabama A&M before the bye week. They were 2-0 in SWAC West, loss to Alcorn put them behind them and now 2-2 they are likely out of it. Their O was pretty good before that, D wasn’t so good. Bethune should still be considered a play against team. A lot of these SWAC games are pretty close, so laying more than 4.5 gets a little dicey. Bethune has lost by 10 to Southern last week, then 3 to Tx So, 5 to ASU, 6 to Jackson even though they’ve been outgained by an avg of 87 ypg in those.

If SEMO is the best 3-4 team, Southern Utah is the best 2-5 group, a little inconsistent within games and week-to-week. 5-0 ATS as dogs with a few near upsets of Davis and AP. Just 1-1 ATS as fav because of the 1 pt win laying 1.5 at Tarleton. They are off an emotional game where they were up on AP pretty good and then allowed them to come back where they lost in OT. Abiline Christian continues to be outgained in the box score whether they win or lose. Are +7 TO margin the last two weeks resulting in two wins and covers despite -145 combined yard deficit in those. These teams feel somewhat similar with SUU being a little better. Looks like a pass

I was already for Tx AM Commerce to beat Nicholls last week and they go and lose 7-27. Suppose I was overly influenced by their mostly close game the week before vs UIW and the impressive looking 41-10 win over McNeese. Houston Christian off the bye, before that they beat PV 30-0 and then lost to Nicholls themselves 7-38. These are both teams that do not do a lot of things well at this point. HCU was pretty rough last year and Commerce won 31-3. Unders are on a 4-0 run in HCU games with an average total of 57.88. Tx Com games on 3-0 Under run and 4 of last 5 with avg total being 49.8. I see 45.5 now for their game together, that seems a little low. These teams can have trouble scoring when they play teams better than them, but they have both scored on bad teams – assuming they themselves are both bad teams, if I had to pick something in this game it would be the Over.

Tennessee State is rolling a bit, 3-0 SU run vs Lincoln, Norfolk, Kennesaw (man those are rough teams) – TSU should’ve beaten all those and maybe should’ve beaten them worse than they did (7 pt wins vs both Norfolk and Kennesaw). Backing it up further, on a 4-0 ATS run with covers in Sept vs UTM (outgained by 198 though) and upset GW week 3. Definitely turned a corner although they have yet learned how to cover as a favorite, 0-2 ATS with near misses in their games vs Norfolk and Ark PB. 13 is their largest favorite role this year and last time they were this large of a favorite last year they lost 3-19 at Murray! Assuming they’ve grown since then. Lindenwood on 4 straight Unders as their offense has been struggling the last two games (just 214 and 292 ttl yards in those). TSU has gone Under 4 of last 5. In both cases the totals were higher than what this one is initially set at. TSU should win again as a favorite this year, can they take the next step and cover as chalk now? Not a real strong passing team so they may have to grind it out and rely on D.

Alcorn is off real nice 31-7 win over Ark PB with huge stat advantages. Playing pretty good ball, their previous SWAC games were all close though, 1 in the upset of Grambling, 3 in OT vs ASU and lost by 3 to PV. Generally though their O is pretty good and their D can get it done especially vs the lesser teams. 17.5 seems like a lot. It is just Mississippi Valley, although Valley is on a run here, covered two straight. The worst part about MVSU is their OL and Alcorn should have a lot of success in that matchup (MVSU allowed 30 sacks so far). Their losses vs SWAC this year have come just by 19.3 ppg, they can be a frustrating team to play against because you feel like they should be getting beat by more than they are (Talking to you Jackson and FAMU). Alcorn has HUGE game vs Southern on deck. Think I need to stay off this one.

Vs bad teams Samford is 1-2 ATS on closing numbers vs VMI (won by 13 laying 14), Wofford (won by 21 laying 13.5) and ETSU (won by 14 laying 17.5). This is their largest favorite role yet, it is of course vs The Citadel so the spread is perfectly understood. Citadel covered a similar number vs Furman, however Furman was up 28-0 and put it on cruise control from there. Samford likely keeps scoring. Citadel’s scoring output has been pretty steady the last 4 weeks at 12.75 avg (10-14 pts in all 4). Samford’s scoring has been down, but I assume they get back into the 40s this week after having not done so since September. The Samford D is not good though and even with their offensive ability, that is always a worry when having to cover a big line. I don’t think this game is for me. Maybe Over assuming Samford does ¾ of the heavy lifting.

Montana’s first game off the Idaho win. Really have found themselves the last few weeks which is good to see. UNC had been gaining some traction as seen in games vs Weber and Sac State, they played very well in both of those games. Then they play an equal team and lost worse than the score showed at Cal Poly. UNC is going to struggle to run the ball on the Griz and I can’t count on their passing game to win the day either. I’m not into backing Montana as a big favorite though.

Arkansas Pine Bluff is a very bad team, lost by 24 to Alcorn, ok. Lost by 25 to Mississippi Valley, whoa! Shut out by Southern. I thought last week would be a lay up for Jackson State and they shit the bed late and blew the cover. It is a similar line this week, on the road again, vs an even worse team. The Jackson State D should shut down this offense, now the Jackson St O with the new QB has to score more than 21 this week, right?

Think I am going to play Alabama A&M as a small dog. A&M has the offensive potential with Lankford at QB, avg 473 ypg their last 4. What State lacks on O (just 302 ypg their last 4), they make up for on D (held Jackson St to just 19 pts and FAMU to just 23) – holding all opponents to 18.3 ppg on avg this year. ASU never beats anyone by any margin; 5, 5, 4 in their 3 wins. They lost to Miles. It will probably be a close again. This is a big rivalry game played at a neutral site like so many SWAC games.

NDSU has SDSU on deck. They can’t afford to look past anyone at this point though. Vs the bad teams this year, Bison have taken care of business. 625-184 ttl yard edge vs W ILL last week! +183 ttl yards on Missouri St. +233 ttl yards on Maine. Won those 3 by combined 134-24 score. Murray lost by 21 to SIU and 31 at USD being held to single digits in each. Not sure how NDSU will play the end of this game, when they start subbing. That could matter for a back door if they leave it open. It could be 45-7 and Murray scores a late one.

Richmond is on a 3 game winning streak. The young QB has sparked the O, he has a 10-6 TD-INT ratio in 4 games, but 6 of the TDs came vs Maine. Was 0-1 last week vs A&T. Richmond was the beneficiary of TWO pick-sixes last week and a blk’d punt ret for TD. A&T scored on a KO ret TD. Weird game. A&T has no O vs everyone. Before last week this Richmond D was allowing 449 ypg vs URI, Maine and Hampton. URI outgained them by 102y and left some points on the field out there. Campbell O is going to challenge them for sure – Camels have been good vs everyone, 431ypg and 37 ppg. What Campbell isn’t good at is securing a win by a covering margin, they blew covering leads on Maine and Hampton and were upset two weeks prior making Campbell just 1-4 ATS as a favorite. Richmond looking like -1 here and the total is high 57.5 but both teams should score. Campbell doesn’t stop anyone, but I don’t value the Richmond wins as much as maybe I should – the loss to Hampton sticks with me. That was Coleman’s first game. I just think that game is more of a reflection of Richmond’s defense where they give it up on the ground and by air. Campbell and Over for me.

Western Illinois has been so bad, so bad. But SIU as a 28 pt road fav? I pass on that

Montana State at Idaho! Another big one in the Kibbie Dome! I’m not sure how anyone stops the Montana State O. A bye week before playing them might help? Montana found success running and EWU with a mobile QB gave Idaho some trouble as well. So to a certain extent, Montana State is just going to theirs. The only team to keep them wrapped up was South Dakota State. They avg 345y rushing 8.6 ypc in their other games, vs SDSU they were held to 211y and 4.4ypc. Not many Ds are equipped as well as SDSU obviously. I think Idaho has a chance on O. Maybe Sac St gave a little bit of a blueprint. Idaho isn’t a tempo passing team, they are actually the #1 TOP team in the Big Sky. Sac State had some success running and passing on them. What you can’t do is give them points, Sac St threw a pick-six, had another INT that they turned into a short field TD and were SOD late in the game trying to comeback and that led to another short field TD for MTSU. That was played like a one score game for 3+ quarters last week and I think Idaho State is better than Sac. I don’t know exactly how, but off the Montana loss, off the bye, in back-to-back home games, this is the game of the year for Idaho and I’m going to back that urgency as a small home dog.

So much for Northern Arizona being good! Everyone always likes to overreact. They are still kind of good, one bad game shouldn’t be held so strongly against them. Before the Portland St loss they beat Weber on the road (which everyone does now, but they still did it), they were on the cusp of beating Sac State on the road and they took it to Montana. Those were the 3 previous games before the Portland State loss. That is who I think they are. Weeks 1-3 was bad for them, but despite the Portland St loss, I think weeks 4-7 still reflect pretty well for them. UC Davis I have not been much of a fan of all year especially with the loss of their super RB who the offense ran through. Davis still has a good experienced QB and they are good enough to win without Larison at RB, it is just different. Not much to be impressed with, beat Weber by 1, lost by 8 at home to Montana, beat CalPoly better than the score shows, lost to Eastern, only beat Southern Utah by 2 … I don’t know, maybe I don’t respect them enough I just have not been impressed so when I see them laying pts on the road that is something I want to go against. Portland St was a big flop for NAU, a lot of people were starting to get on that train and they let the home fans down in that one. I think they come out strong this week, unless they’ve lost the magic – they were playing some good ball with the new QB.

Same with Portland St, the bandwagon followers jumped off NAU onto Portland St, the they lose at home to Idaho State. I don’t know about this one. Eastern Washington is good, I think they are better than Portland St but I see this as a tough game.

Incarnate Word vs Lamar! Undefeated SLC teams face off. I had hear that Calzada may be back this week on some show, but I don’t know if they were just assuming. Torres was national Fr POW and he looked pretty good if they have to go with him. I do think that the UIW D should be good enough vs what I suspect is a limited Lamar O. Two things, UIW has been so poor over the course of their last 3 games it makes it hard to want to back them. And two, I have not seen a live snap of Lamar football all year, so I don’t really know what to expect out of them.

FAMU -21 vs PV, can FAMU cover a favorite line? They are a good team. I think they are better than all their opponents by more than their final scores are saying they are, but they are who the scores say they are at the end of the day. 27.8 – 13.4. That is the average score of their games, they have outgained every FCS by an avg of 82.5 ppg. I’d probably say their D is better than their O, just haven’t had that wow game, not since week 0 vs Jackson and even there, they got up 28-0 in the 2Q and didn’t score again. Unders are 5-1 in their games. Prairie View is bad. Like losing 0-30 to HCU bad. Losing to Miss Valley State bad! If FAMU is every going to break out with a big one this has to be it! First home game since 9/23 for them.

Bryant is a mysterious team to me this year. Just 3-4 SU. I think they are better than that, but that’s who they are. Played a tight one and lost in OT to EIU last week. They have lacked offense on the road this year. Vs FCS road games avg just 267ypg and 22ppg. At home it is 411ypg and 29.6ppg. Part of that is who you play where, and the road games have been tough (Princeton, URI and EIU). This is their easiest road game of the year vs Charleston Southern. I have been against Charleston Southern often this year and I should give them credit, they play some defense. The averages are skewed because they gave up 77 to WCU and 66 to Clemson, but outside of those games, they make their opponents earn everything. Offensively, other than the Lindenwood game, CharSo is a team that lacks much offense both rushing and passing. This is at CharSo so if the trend continues Bryant O won’t be that great again, but at the same time while I have come to respect the CharSo D, I don’t think their offense is going to be much of a challenge for Bryant. CharSo Under 4 of 5. Bryant Over 4 of last 5. Not sure there, but I like Bryant to win and hopefully cover a small road chalk spot.

Southern has HUGE game vs Alcorn on deck. Southern is more of a defensive team than offense. Other than the Ark PB game, their O only avg 288.6ypg in the other SWAC games. Had them last week on a smaller line vs a worse team. Texas Southern isn’t good and kind of bad, but I’m not going to go against them on a DD line as the Southern O isn’t very inspiring.

Central Ark off a bye and Tarleton off an easy win. I think Central Ark is a good all around team. They get some weird results though. I think they are a decent amount better than SFA, but SFA made that game rough on them and actually SFA was +80y in the 3 pt game. SEMO was just crazy as it took like 32 4Q pts out of UCA to comeback in that one. SUU the opposite, they were up big, should’ve been up bigger and had to hang on. Just odd games for one reason or the other. If they play a normal game to their full potential then they are the best team in that conference. I think their D can be better than they’ve played the last two weeks. Tarleton is actually a little better than I had thought. I went against them a few times with mixed results. Maybe I’ll say, they make or keep games closer than they should be. Last week was whatever vs Morehead. 527y and 7.4ypp on EKU, well that is the EKU D. Howa bout just 311y 4.8ypp on SUU at home a few games ago and the real stinker is 203y 3.3ypp on SELU end of Sept. Great ATS team though, 6-0 vs FCS. I think they have probably gotten better offensively over the course of the last few weeks and UCA hasn’t played to full potential either. At this line I would lean towards Tarleton, but would rather play UCA on a lower line that will never show up I assume.

Here is what I came up with this morning. You will see @carolinablue that both Jackson and FAMU are on there! I'm going to summarize like usual, go through and see exactly what I want to look for. I didn't get to fully analyze the last few games on the schedule.

 

[carolinablue]

Thanks man, great reads as always!

Here is my updated short list…Let me know any that look crazy to you…

Merrimack up to -2.5
Duquesne up to 7
Tarleton no lower than 10.5 (actually like the over as well but usually don’t double dip)
Butler up to 11
Princeton if dog
FAMU up to 21 (I know but least no JSU!)
Delaware up to 7

 

[carolinablue]

Also lean WCU, ND, Alcorn, Southern and Georgetown but just not feeling as strongly as the ones above

 

[s--k]

Thanks man, great reads as always!

Here is my updated short list…Let me know any that look crazy to you…

Merrimack up to -2.5
Duquesne up to 7
Tarleton no lower than 10.5 (actually like the over as well but usually don’t double dip)
Butler up to 11
Princeton if dog
FAMU up to 21 (I know but least no JSU!)
Delaware up to 7

Merrimack was showing as dogged on 5dimes. They could flip to fav though. I think I have decided to not play that game unless there is line movement that entices me.

I may have Towson, but want more pts. Delaware is really good, I respect them, I just have yet to see them play vs a solid team, what was the last time? UNH a month ago? We know Duquesne is good, but that is different level. So, I think something is going on with the Delaware QB situation, is there an injury? They liked both QBs coming into the year although neither had played for them. Backup started last week.