Hulu's CFL 2019

So Collaros won’t play this week but will his arrival give this team a psychological lift in the same way that Bear Woods signing might? A sign to the team that management is working to make improvements?

Shawn Lemon is back in the starting lineup as well.

Armanti Edwards also back.

With all this and Winnipeg being down a couple of guys, I’m starting to think this line should be more like 10.5.

For the love of god, someone please talk me off betting the Argos here.


Argos should cover the spread---

Toronto Argos coach has lost 16 straight games in the CFl-
Toronto Argos have lost 6 straight games this season...

The fact that the COACH has lost 16 straight and the Argos have lost 6 in a row, leads me to believe the following interpretations.

The ARGOS not only will eventually WIN a game, but they should start to GET CLOSE to winning some games.. They must win a game at some point..

I think if anything the ARGOS should start Giving A PLUS effort in their games-- They have to-- They keep losing-- They are not without talent---

I feel that every team will get the ARGOS best shot especially at HOME.....

So I feel that the ARGOS will eventually even WIN one of these games outright..
 
Ya, I dono about this week, and like you say hulu a bad line may make it moot, just look at reilly

Toronto with some decent QB play tho will stay in games imo

Anything resembling Close to AVERAGE QB play and the ARGOS can win any game-------

This ARGOS team has some talent-- BC has no talent at all...

If their QB play can improve they can win any game..

Up to now they have had BC style Qb'ing, which won't win and will get you beaten good.
 
Also my biggest and so far only play of the week, and I know you said big lines are so hard to judge in the CFL but this one is just too good to be true

BYE - 19.5 over BC Lions

I'll take the bye for a grand!

Guaranteed please go and find the BC lions at the Beach or Fishing or wherever they are-- Make sure they start practicing bro!

So far BC has been a no show!
 
Leaning edmonton and Ottawa too

That calgary season breakdown hulu showed it perfectly, been reading some Calgary boards as well and they are way down on the team this year, more video on arbuckle too will help the eskies
 
Just read Ellingson and Josh Johnson missed a second day of practice today. That has me mildly concerned. We’ll know more by Friday morning at the latest.
 
Ya, I dono about this week, and like you say hulu a bad line may make it moot, just look at reilly

Toronto with some decent QB play tho will stay in games imo

Yeah good QB play and that’s what they haven’t been getting. None of what I mentioned will change MBT. We’ve seen enough of him over 2 seasons that he won’t surprise us now. He is what he is and he will keep throwing into double and triple coverages no matter what.
 
Yeah good QB play and that’s what they haven’t been getting. None of what I mentioned will change MBT. We’ve seen enough of him over 2 seasons that he won’t surprise us now. He is what he is and he will keep throwing into double and triple coverages no matter what.

With arguably ABOVE average Receiving talent that Toronto has, Walker, Green, Edwards, Bethel MCleaod is basically throwing himself out of the league. He is constantly throwing into triple coverage.
The team is actiually decent however the ARgos have suffered from abysmal qb play.
 
Ugh so RJ Harris not back after all.

And despite their line backing trio looking so much better last week they are going back to Fernandez at MLB with Avery Williams moving to weak side and Kevin brown amd Jeff Knox Jr backing up. Unless someone is dinged up, I don’t understand why they would go with this configuration again after it looked so bad 2 weeks ago. I really don’t understand what Rick Campbell is thinking sometimes.

 
Playing 2 plays small---

Argos +14.5 $100
Argos ML +625 $25

Argos QB Bethel Mcleod Thompson has not been seeing the field well. He was benched last week. He said he wanted it too badly and couldn't focus..

This week he is back and determined to play better-- He already has played his worst football possible this season.. If this guy has any Courage or Ability he should show it tonight-- If not he will be released and his CFL career will be over...

In terms of percentages, I feel that Mcleaod Thompson cannot do any worse than he has, and if he actually shows up and moves the offense, I think they will give Winnioeg a very competitive game--

Sure Winnipeg is a better team and can win big, but in this spot with Toronto being 0-6 and their coach losing 16 games in a row, I think the Argos will show up tonight-

I think the Argos defense will play well, and the offense should do enough and I believe or HOPE that in the fourth quarter this game will be a TOSS UP...

If Winnipeg wants to win by more than 15 go for it.. Take my money. Show me you can do it!

I'm riding with the argos tonight! the unpopular pick
 
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Argos getting their starting left guard back tonight along with receiver Armanti Edwards..

Backup running back Brandon Burks is a huge upgrade over the slowish James wilder who is the most overrated player in this universe.. The guy had one stretch and is completely invisible in most games..

I expect Winnipeg to understand that they only need to play 2 good quarters to win--

I expect a ROAD pass RUSH from Winnipeg- Minimimal effort--

I expect a weak game from the Winnipeg secondary..

I expect a good game from the Toronto D line tonight.
 
Ottawa line is now

Montreal -7 and 53 points---


Earlier on I had a play on Ottawa at +7.5. I have since cancelled this bet as I was waiting for injury updated particularly the status of RJ Harris and the Ottawa linebacking situation..

Here is the skinny on this Game courtesy of AGENT 811-

Ottawa has lost the time of possession badly in the past 4 games.. Vs Montreal and Calgary and Winnipeg the offense did not sustain drives, leading to a LOPSIDED Time of possession in favour of the opposition.

In the losses the Ottawa offense has struggled mightily. The starting Qb was injured, but he did start 2 of the losses-- 29-14 to Winnipeg and 36-19 to Montreal.

The Ottawa losses were as follows-- 29-14 to Winnipeg 36-19 to montreal 31-1 to Winnipeg 17-16 to calgary

The last 4 Montreal games were 36-29 win vs hamilton 36-19 win at Ottawa and a 20-10 win at home to montreal


Both of these teams have been playing very good defense overall on the season--

Ottawa's losses were due to the lopsides time of possession and not sustaining any drives at all.
However they did hold Winnipeg to a fgoal in the second half of that loss and held Calgary to only 17 points..

Montreal is a team that its defense has held the opposition to less yards each game-- So in each game the total net yards of the opposition is really going down.
Montreal through free agency has a very solid defense-
The combo of Tommy Cambell and Ciante Evans is the best in the CFL-- All star safety Taylor Loffler and WIL linebacker Patrick LEvels is a stud- Add in 2 linebackers in Boseko Lokombo and HEnoc Muamba and this is a very good team.

I am thinking that Ottawa will show up tonight to play.. Their defense is good, but so is MOntreals defense-- MOntreal is a lot like Toronto in that they have a lot of talent at the skill positions-- IF they get good QB play then they can beat anyone-- Montreal is getting very good QB play and Ottawa is not getting good qb play..

I'm leaning on a few plays - considering Ottawa moneyline- good value and I can reduce my risk-

The under 53 is interesting, as I would lean it to going under-- But not certain because of Montreals resurgence offensively of late--

I will update later when I get a feel-- But I feel that the game will be competitive.
 
Ottawa line is now

Montreal -7 and 53 points---


Earlier on I had a play on Ottawa at +7.5. I have since cancelled this bet as I was waiting for injury updated particularly the status of RJ Harris and the Ottawa linebacking situation..

Here is the skinny on this Game courtesy of AGENT 811-

Ottawa has lost the time of possession badly in the past 4 games.. Vs Montreal and Calgary and Winnipeg the offense did not sustain drives, leading to a LOPSIDED Time of possession in favour of the opposition.

In the losses the Ottawa offense has struggled mightily. The starting Qb was injured, but he did start 2 of the losses-- 29-14 to Winnipeg and 36-19 to Montreal.

The Ottawa losses were as follows-- 29-14 to Winnipeg 36-19 to montreal 31-1 to Winnipeg 17-16 to calgary

The last 4 Montreal games were 36-29 win vs hamilton 36-19 win at Ottawa and a 20-10 win at home to montreal


Both of these teams have been playing very good defense overall on the season--

Ottawa's losses were due to the lopsides time of possession and not sustaining any drives at all.
However they did hold Winnipeg to a fgoal in the second half of that loss and held Calgary to only 17 points..

Montreal is a team that its defense has held the opposition to less yards each game-- So in each game the total net yards of the opposition is really going down.
Montreal through free agency has a very solid defense-
The combo of Tommy Cambell and Ciante Evans is the best in the CFL-- All star safety Taylor Loffler and WIL linebacker Patrick LEvels is a stud- Add in 2 linebackers in Boseko Lokombo and HEnoc Muamba and this is a very good team.

I am thinking that Ottawa will show up tonight to play.. Their defense is good, but so is MOntreals defense-- MOntreal is a lot like Toronto in that they have a lot of talent at the skill positions-- IF they get good QB play then they can beat anyone-- Montreal is getting very good QB play and Ottawa is not getting good qb play..

I'm leaning on a few plays - considering Ottawa moneyline- good value and I can reduce my risk-

The under 53 is interesting, as I would lean it to going under-- But not certain because of Montreals resurgence offensively of late--

I will update later when I get a feel-- But I feel that the game will be competitive.

I hear you Sammy. All indications all week were that Harris would play and they they scratched him at the last moment.

I’ve waffled all week about the under but like you, have to stay off because Montreal’s offense is still emerging and I don’t know them well enough yet.
 
betting against the Stamps at home is not good for your bankroll
they're looking at two division games. this home game and then travel to Winnipeg on extremely short rest. unless they trying to lose 2 consecutive division games Stamps better bring it at home tomorrow. I also think Winnipeg might have been focusing more on beating the Stampeders than the Argonauts, which makes tomorrow even more crucial for Calgary
 
they're looking at two division games. this home game and then travel to Winnipeg on extremely short rest. unless they trying to lose 2 consecutive division games Stamps better bring it at home tomorrow


NO Ellington is beyond huge loss.. I would say that Ellington is the most targeted receiver for Harris for sure. The combo of Harris and Ellington is the #1 combo in the league.
Harris looks for Ellington on at least 50% of their passing plays--

I am unsure if guys like Stafford, Ajei, Carter will be enough to beat the Stamps--

Another factor worth mentioning is that Harris play on the road has been abysmal this season-

I find other than him playing vs Hamilton or at Sask he fares very poorly on the road
 
how are the interviews going brother

Good. It’s an employees market right now and I have a lot of experience in my field.

Got 3 offers and accepted one but now they’re really going overboard doing a background investigation. I can’t believe everything they’re asking me for. They want all my pay stubs from the last year at my previous job as well as credit checks and such. I dont mind a certain amount of due diligence where it directly relates to the job but why do they need my credit history? Anyway we’ll see where it goes. I have nothing to hide but I have my limits as to how much personal information I am comfortable giving.
 
NO Ellington is beyond huge loss.. I would say that Ellington is the most targeted receiver for Harris for sure. The combo of Harris and Ellington is the #1 combo in the league.
Harris looks for Ellington on at least 50% of their passing plays--

I am unsure if guys like Stafford, Ajei, Carter will be enough to beat the Stamps--

Another factor worth mentioning is that Harris play on the road has been abysmal this season-

I find other than him playing vs Hamilton or at Sask he fares very poorly on the road

No Ellingson is big but Harris has been developing chemistry with his other receivers, especially Stafford when he plays the boundary side. Daniels also.

I think it’s bigger that Calgary has to face the best defensive line in the league, down another offensive linemen with Bergman out and down to their third string RB in his first game back off an ACL injury LY.

Klukas in for Brescasin is a pretty big step down as well.

I still really think Edmonton has a major personnel advantage over the stamps tonight. And I love the under even more.
 
Kevin Elliot, who enters the lineup in place of Ellingson has had an interesting few years.

He started in Toronto and looked like a reliable, big-bodied inside receiver with some downfield speed when necessary. Played well for a few games and then trailed off badly.

Then Hamilton picked him up and again for a couple games he looked like a keeper and then disappeared.

After that it was BC where he looked decent in his debut and then disappeared.

I wonder if we are the same thing in Edmonton where he rises to the occasion for a game or two and then gets complacent and plays himself off the roster?
 
@Sammy Meatballs MBT sounds like your kind of cat...

When he kneeled at the end zone, Bethel-Thompson didn’t think about himself. He thought bigger picture.
“Just thank you. Thank you, my loved ones,” he said.
“Thank you to my family, thank you, mom and dad. I just think of all of the people that believed in me and sent me good energy. Thank you to my ancestors…my grandpa Pete that passed away.
“My ancestors were there tonight, I could feel them floating with me and I just let go. When you believe in karmic energy and space and time, everything happens at the same time. (My ancestors) were with me. I just thank them and thank them for having my back and thank them for the moment.”
 
No Ellingson is big but Harris has been developing chemistry with his other receivers, especially Stafford when he plays the boundary side. Daniels also.

I think it’s bigger that Calgary has to face the best defensive line in the league, down another offensive linemen with Bergman out and down to their third string RB in his first game back off an ACL injury LY.

Klukas in for Brescasin is a pretty big step down as well.

I still really think Edmonton has a major personnel advantage over the stamps tonight. And I love the under even more.

I feel this should be a low scoring game-- mid thirties
 
1* SSK / MON under 52.5 -110

Made this one 52 but VAJ is out and Pipkin is in has to bring that down by at least a couple of points. This one is on the move downward so if you like it, get it now.

Also Stanback is questionable and will be <100% even if he plays. Its a big dropoff to Jeremiah Johnson if he can't go.
 
Belatedly tallying up the past 2 weeks. Week 7 was awful, week 8 I clawed some back...

Results after Week 8

Sides 9-12-1 -6.512*
Totals 10-7 +2.385*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 5-3 +1.200*
Live 2-1 +0.200*

Overall 26-24-1 -3.227*

Advantage over close

Sides: +17 pts or 0.77ppg
Totals: +23 pts or 1.35ppg

Been a rough first third of the season but still within striking distance of the mendoza line. Onward and upward.
 
keep riding the under train? I figure it's due for a swing soon, even with the key injuries

For this week anyway. I'm aware of the trend but don't use it to cap. I just think overall defenses are way ahead of offenses right now. Several of them are better than expected coming into the year...Edmonton, Calgary, Hamilton, Winnipeg, Montreal are all rounding into form during a time when starting QBs are falling like flies.

Also, if you look at 2017 and 2018 combined, unders hit at a 54.8% rate. This season we're right in line with that.
 
Strong lean to the over in Hamilton. It’s been pushed down to 51 and the cats will be missing a number of defensive pieces including Breaux and Jagared Davis.

Any thoughts out there?
 
Strong lean to the over in Hamilton. It’s been pushed down to 51 and the cats will be missing a number of defensive pieces including Breaux and Jagared Davis.

Any thoughts out there?
I cap cappers and I know what's coming. I'll await your decision.
 
What has happened this season in the CFL?

Parity has shown up-- There are certainly a bottom cellar dweller in the BC lions but other than BC I find all the other teams are PARITY...

There is no dominant team that can just blow out all other teams--

Hamilton Montreal Calgary Winnipeg Ottawa Edmonton Saskatchwean and even Toronto are all pretty much equal....

So when given points like Calgary is at +7.5 its a good play.....

As I mentioned CFl teams are not like College teams-- No major talent edges- No coahing- Limited practice time-- Second jobs- Small crowds and limited financial ability for teams to feed players etc-- low budget travel arrangement etc--

Its just not a league that teams really can be trusted to cover big spreads--


Hulu I agree with Calgary- They are well coached- have the best secondary in the CFL- and good special teams- smart team-- They can win this game in Winnipeg but I expect them to cover none the less
 
Strong lean to the over in Hamilton. It’s been pushed down to 51 and the cats will be missing a number of defensive pieces including Breaux and Jagared Davis.

Any thoughts out there?

Taking an OVER with BC is risky because they can really stink it up on offense-- Last game they scored only a few points--

Dane Evans also a few turnovers-- game could go easily under--

For an over to hit you need 2 good offensive teams-- BC sucks on offense- and 2 defenses that will give up points- Hamilton has the best tackling defense I have ever seen in CFL history at HOME- they don't miss a tackle or give any YAC.
 
Taking an OVER with BC is risky because they can really stink it up on offense-- Last game they scored only a few points--

Dane Evans also a few turnovers-- game could go easily under--

For an over to hit you need 2 good offensive teams-- BC sucks on offense- and 2 defenses that will give up points- Hamilton has the best tackling defense I have ever seen in CFL history at HOME- they don't miss a tackle or give any YAC.

I hear you Sammy.

At the time it was looking like both Hamiltons starting DEs might be out but now hearing that Davis will play so it’s not as big a factor now. Also the cats are flipping he ratio to an American rb so they have to stuff a Canadian in somewhere else and if that was at a defensive position, it would also help BCs offense.

Combine that with the Lions most significant OL shuffle to date and I like this one on paper with Remfrow at RT, Chung and Figueroa back healthy and Norman at C.

BC gives up 34 points a game so it should t be too hard for Fane Evans and co to get some. I’m thinking a 33-24 kind of game.

But you’re right, a lot has to happen to win that bet. I feel like the total is definitely about 2.5 points low but I don’t have the highest confidence. I’ll make a final decision tomorrow morning
 
What has happened this season in the CFL?

Parity has shown up-- There are certainly a bottom cellar dweller in the BC lions but other than BC I find all the other teams are PARITY...

There is no dominant team that can just blow out all other teams--

Hamilton Montreal Calgary Winnipeg Ottawa Edmonton Saskatchwean and even Toronto are all pretty much equal....

So when given points like Calgary is at +7.5 its a good play.....

As I mentioned CFl teams are not like College teams-- No major talent edges- No coahing- Limited practice time-- Second jobs- Small crowds and limited financial ability for teams to feed players etc-- low budget travel arrangement etc--

Its just not a league that teams really can be trusted to cover big spreads--


Hulu I agree with Calgary- They are well coached- have the best secondary in the CFL- and good special teams- smart team-- They can win this game in Winnipeg but I expect them to cover none the less

Know what else has happened? All these kick return TDs. I've never seen anything like it. How many games now have had multiple return TDs? Winnipeg with another one tonight in the first half alone. Last week I heard the league had tied the number of kickoff return TDs from LY in only 8 weeks! Ditto for punt return and missed FG return TDs. Its unprecedented.,

I have to be honest, I don't know how to factor that into my capping. Which speedster is going to break multiple returns next? Who knows? And every team seems to have a guy who can do it and no team seems immune to giving them up.

I suppose one way to look at it is to say this pace of return TDs can't keep up all season long and if you take them out of the equation, offensive scoring must be waaaay down vs a normal year. We could be in a for a whole lot more unders this year assuming the rate of special teams TDs slows down a bit.
 
Know what else has happened? All these kick return TDs. I've never seen anything like it. How many games now have had multiple return TDs? Winnipeg with another one tonight in the first half alone. Last week I heard the league had tied the number of kickoff return TDs from LY in only 8 weeks! Ditto for punt return and missed FG return TDs. Its unprecedented.,

I have to be honest, I don't know how to factor that into my capping. Which speedster is going to break multiple returns next? Who knows? And every team seems to have a guy who can do it and no team seems immune to giving them up.

I suppose one way to look at it is to say this pace of return TDs can't keep up all season long and if you take them out of the equation, offensive scoring must be waaaay down vs a normal year. We could be in a for a whole lot more unders this year assuming the rate of special teams TDs slows down a bit.

I think the punt return TDS are a product of a few factors..

1. Fresh RETURNER- The returners making TD's are all new PLAYERS-- They are not older guys like Step Logan etc-- Winnipeg had Charles Nelson and Lucky Whitehead and some new guy last night that scored 2 tds-- Ottawa had Devonte Deadmon who scored 2 tds last week.
The Fresh returner is fresh from the American college ranks- Meaning he is young and fast and healthy--- Also likely they are in the best shape of their lives because they are just NEW to the CFL and would have likely been trying to make the NFL-- So they are in PEAK Shape of their life--

2- What you will then notice is these fresh new players will suddenly decline in year 2 or late in the season-- The realities of the lack of stadium ameneties- Massage- Hyperbaric chambers- nutrition- No free food- etc= No steroids provided by the team etc-- The fresh players decline in speed big time-- Look at MARTESE JACKSON returner- slow now-- fast when he showed up--

3-Lack of practice time also-- Not being able to practice for long hours- they cannot get good coverage- Also they aren't tackling in practice so I don't see how without tackling they would be able to tackle anyone during the game--
 
I hear you Sammy.

At the time it was looking like both Hamiltons starting DEs might be out but now hearing that Davis will play so it’s not as big a factor now. Also the cats are flipping he ratio to an American rb so they have to stuff a Canadian in somewhere else and if that was at a defensive position, it would also help BCs offense.

Combine that with the Lions most significant OL shuffle to date and I like this one on paper with Remfrow at RT, Chung and Figueroa back healthy and Norman at C.

BC gives up 34 points a game so it should t be too hard for Fane Evans and co to get some. I’m thinking a 33-24 kind of game.

But you’re right, a lot has to happen to win that bet. I feel like the total is definitely about 2.5 points low but I don’t have the highest confidence. I’ll make a final decision tomorrow morning


Remember when Calvillo was playing in the CFL and Ricky Ray, there were receivers that were ELITE in the sense that they could get open ALL day LONG-- Guys like Ben Cahoon, Jason Tucker, Sj GReen, Jamal Richardson, Andy Fantuz, Weston Dressler, Geroy Simon-- Now in todays CFL who is the dominant receivers? Other than DEREL WALKER I am not sure there are many other star receivers? Maybe Eric Rogers and Brandon Banks can be considered star receivers but overall the league does not have star elite receivers--
Also I feel the quality of the defensive backs has improved in the CFL-- Calgary and Hamilton have all star secondaries- WInnpeg and Edmonton and Montreal and SASK secondary are all solid--- Even Ottawa's secondary is good-- SO basically all the teams have better secondaries and without the star receivers and QBs playing the games will be lower scoring
 
Know what else has happened? All these kick return TDs. I've never seen anything like it. How many games now have had multiple return TDs? Winnipeg with another one tonight in the first half alone. Last week I heard the league had tied the number of kickoff return TDs from LY in only 8 weeks! Ditto for punt return and missed FG return TDs. Its unprecedented.,

I have to be honest, I don't know how to factor that into my capping. Which speedster is going to break multiple returns next? Who knows? And every team seems to have a guy who can do it and no team seems immune to giving them up.

I suppose one way to look at it is to say this pace of return TDs can't keep up all season long and if you take them out of the equation, offensive scoring must be waaaay down vs a normal year. We could be in a for a whole lot more unders this year assuming the rate of special teams TDs slows down a bit.


The lower scoring games could also be the result of this fact--

Look at the coaches in the CFL this season-

Bc- Ottawa- Hamilton-- 3 head coaches were defensive coordinators
Winnipeg-Sask--- 2 head coaches were special teams coordinators

Calgary -Edmonton-Montreal- All 3 coaches were former CFL QBS--

Could the lower scoring be attributed to the fact that most of the coaches are DEFENSIVE in nature and also special teams guys? Maybe they focus more on offense and more or less suck on offense if they do not have a 5 start offensive coordinator?
 
0.5*/0.25* Montreal +3/ML -105/+138

The more I look at this, the more I think the ALs have a chance to be competitive. Pipkin is serviceable if he gets time and with 3/4 of Sask’s DL out tonight I think he will have that. Stanback is out but Johnson is a decent option and the ratio flip there let’s them stuff an American tackle in place of Tyler Johnstone which can only help Pipkin/Johnson.

Historically, west teams struggle in Montreal and sask is no exception. Also with this being a pre-bye game for the Riders, many players will be flying home direct from Montreal and that is always a distraction.
 
0.5* SSK / MON 2H u24 -107

Offenses combined for a grand total of 7 points in the 1H and I doubt we see 3 defensive and ST TDs again.
 
I expect the UNDERDOGS to keep winning -- Parity is here my friends-- The +10.5 is likely good for BC lions--

Teams are not getting good pass protection at all, no offences are really elite offenses--

With that said--

Bc should be able to cover the spread in this one--
 
I expect the UNDERDOGS to keep winning -- Parity is here my friends-- The +10.5 is likely good for BC lions--

Teams are not getting good pass protection at all, no offences are really elite offenses--

With that said--

Bc should be able to cover the spread in this one--

Yeah I agree Sammy. I think BC will surprise a few people tonight. But I’ve thought that several times this year and been wrong way more than right.

I originally made this line 7.5 so there was huge value at 13.5 but now that it’s dipped below 10, not so much.

Pass for me but I’ll be watching for in game opps as always.
 
Whoever is making the lines this season is not aware of the CFL.

They are making big spreads despite the fact that parity is cfl this season.

All teams are competitive. League is more defensive.

All the player changes resulting in defensive matches
 
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