Hulu's CFL 2019
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#3DownNation
Its been this way for a long time. I don't think CFL is a big profit centre for books so they don't expend a lot on setting correct lines. Many books that allow you to buy and sell points don't know how to price them correctly and just price them as if it was the NFL.
But to your point, it is a very strange season in that there is no dominant team. Pretty much 7 of 9 teams have a legit shot at winning it all. Dogs and unders will definitely be the flavour of the day moving forward this year.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results after Week 9
Sides 10-12-1 -5.512*
Totals 11-7 +3.385*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 5-3 +1.200*
Live 2-1 +0.200*
Overall 28-24-1 -1.227*
Advantage over close
Sides: +18.5 pts or 0.80ppb
Totals: +23 pts or 1.28ppb
I should be happy that I went 2-0 this week but I'm not. I had 3 bets in the Montreal game that got shit-canned due to weather. I was on pace to go no worse than 2-1 with 3-0 a possibility there. And then I pussed out on both my leans in Hamilton and missed out on another 2 winners. Bad decisions turned a great week into a good one. Its just been that kind of year. Still though, 2 straight winning weeks and I'm almost out of the hole I dug for myself. Onward...
Sides 10-12-1 -5.512*
Totals 11-7 +3.385*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 5-3 +1.200*
Live 2-1 +0.200*
Overall 28-24-1 -1.227*
Advantage over close
Sides: +18.5 pts or 0.80ppb
Totals: +23 pts or 1.28ppb
I should be happy that I went 2-0 this week but I'm not. I had 3 bets in the Montreal game that got shit-canned due to weather. I was on pace to go no worse than 2-1 with 3-0 a possibility there. And then I pussed out on both my leans in Hamilton and missed out on another 2 winners. Bad decisions turned a great week into a good one. Its just been that kind of year. Still though, 2 straight winning weeks and I'm almost out of the hole I dug for myself. Onward...
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
onward brother. have you landed a job yet. that interview process sounded extensive, but also like you were holding all the cards. that's a nice spot to be in; on the right side of the supply & demand equation. and at least with the extensive background checks + vetting you're already getting to know what type of culture/environment you're going to have to align with
Hulu
#3DownNation
Its looking good. Just waiting on one final past employment verification and I'm good to go. The pay is about a 30% bump from my old job and benefits are way better too. I'll have to work my ass off but there are tons of bonuses to take advantage of so they incentivize people well.
For a change, my timing was good. I don't know how long it will last but it really is an employees market right now.
Hulu
#3DownNation
1* Calgary -5 -109
Gonna keep riding Calgary and I made the line -7.5. Some of the shine is off Montreal's 3 game win streak and they haven't really done a lot since considering they've had 3 home games and a bye over the past 4 weeks. They might have "VAJ" back but Cunningham will definitely be out and we don't know about Stanback yet.
Calgary might have Bo back and even though Arbuckle was good, and put up slightly better numbers, I think having their leader return will be a big boost for this team who rarely lose at home.
Taking this now because I think it'll be 6 or 7 at some point.
Gonna keep riding Calgary and I made the line -7.5. Some of the shine is off Montreal's 3 game win streak and they haven't really done a lot since considering they've had 3 home games and a bye over the past 4 weeks. They might have "VAJ" back but Cunningham will definitely be out and we don't know about Stanback yet.
Calgary might have Bo back and even though Arbuckle was good, and put up slightly better numbers, I think having their leader return will be a big boost for this team who rarely lose at home.
Taking this now because I think it'll be 6 or 7 at some point.
Hulu
#3DownNation
For the record by 'some point' I meant maybe by Thursday. Not 3 minutes later. Lines are moving quicker than ever these days
LFG
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Toronto +10 seems like a FREE winner being handed out by the sloppy oddsmakers..
Toronto is off a BYE week, Edmonton is fresh of playing their hated rival in Calgary and then Trevor Harris's former team Ottawa Rednecks- 2 emotional games for Edmonton.
Edmonton has a very good defence for sure--
However I believe the book is out on MR. TREVOR HARRIS.. This guy simply does not throw many passes over 10 yards... If you watch vs CALGARY who Harris is 0-7 in his career vs, they were stacking the inside hashes and crowding the short middle of the field.. Ottawa employed the exact same strategy..
Harris has a very fast release and can process the field very fast- Especially the short middle of the field- However his arm is absolutely the weakest in the CFL for sure..
He has no zip on his throws- His lack of natural flexibility and his Narrow feet stance is his problem. This is a 6'2 QB who plays very narrow- His feet are always so close together-- He does not have the ability to widen up his feet and get his whole torso into throws-- Smart teams understand this and can easily shut him down- Both Calgary and Ottawa essentially shut him down--
Further more to the fact that Harris only throws short-- He also basically looks for GREG ELLINGSON on 80% of the pass plays. Yeah 1 receiver is this guys whole game--
Last season the receiver who lined up besides GREG ELLINGSON was BRADLEY SINOPLI- So because teams were focussing on ELLINGSON, how do you guys think that BRADLEY SINOPLI did with Ottawa last season.. He LED THE ENTIRE CFL IN CATCHES-- Because as I said all Harris can do is work the short inside hashes of the field-
He has a strange over the top release which is very awkward but effective for short down the middle passes- However for wide side long passes or deeper passes he ALMOST needs an AIRPORT RUNWAY to stand on and take a few steps on the runway and then wind his whole body up and throw it deep- The only way he can throw deep is if there is no pressure on the pocket---
For this reason, when you understand Harris's limitations, teams like CALGARY and OTTAWA and MONTREAL earlier this year all HELD HARRIS under 20 points..
If Toronto has any brains they will employ the similar approach and crowd the middle of the field short and watch Harris struggle all gAME LONG
Toronto is off a BYE week, Edmonton is fresh of playing their hated rival in Calgary and then Trevor Harris's former team Ottawa Rednecks- 2 emotional games for Edmonton.
Edmonton has a very good defence for sure--
However I believe the book is out on MR. TREVOR HARRIS.. This guy simply does not throw many passes over 10 yards... If you watch vs CALGARY who Harris is 0-7 in his career vs, they were stacking the inside hashes and crowding the short middle of the field.. Ottawa employed the exact same strategy..
Harris has a very fast release and can process the field very fast- Especially the short middle of the field- However his arm is absolutely the weakest in the CFL for sure..
He has no zip on his throws- His lack of natural flexibility and his Narrow feet stance is his problem. This is a 6'2 QB who plays very narrow- His feet are always so close together-- He does not have the ability to widen up his feet and get his whole torso into throws-- Smart teams understand this and can easily shut him down- Both Calgary and Ottawa essentially shut him down--
Further more to the fact that Harris only throws short-- He also basically looks for GREG ELLINGSON on 80% of the pass plays. Yeah 1 receiver is this guys whole game--
Last season the receiver who lined up besides GREG ELLINGSON was BRADLEY SINOPLI- So because teams were focussing on ELLINGSON, how do you guys think that BRADLEY SINOPLI did with Ottawa last season.. He LED THE ENTIRE CFL IN CATCHES-- Because as I said all Harris can do is work the short inside hashes of the field-
He has a strange over the top release which is very awkward but effective for short down the middle passes- However for wide side long passes or deeper passes he ALMOST needs an AIRPORT RUNWAY to stand on and take a few steps on the runway and then wind his whole body up and throw it deep- The only way he can throw deep is if there is no pressure on the pocket---
For this reason, when you understand Harris's limitations, teams like CALGARY and OTTAWA and MONTREAL earlier this year all HELD HARRIS under 20 points..
If Toronto has any brains they will employ the similar approach and crowd the middle of the field short and watch Harris struggle all gAME LONG
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
MIKE REILLY IS HE STARTING?
If he is not starting, the Winbipegers should be able to win convincingly...
Lions are crappy but have the ability to play teams close-- But they will lose for sure no matter how much they lead on the road in the 4th qtr--
The Lions need a SPORTS PHYCHOLOGIST badly-- They really need one to fix this team-- This is the weakest mentally strong team I have ever seen in my life--
You punch BC in the mouth and they QUIT--
Their defensive coordinator may quite possible be the worst in the nation these days-- His defences do not fool anyone and he plays to lose--
This is why teams can come back every time vs BC late in the game--
If he is not starting, the Winbipegers should be able to win convincingly...
Lions are crappy but have the ability to play teams close-- But they will lose for sure no matter how much they lead on the road in the 4th qtr--
The Lions need a SPORTS PHYCHOLOGIST badly-- They really need one to fix this team-- This is the weakest mentally strong team I have ever seen in my life--
You punch BC in the mouth and they QUIT--
Their defensive coordinator may quite possible be the worst in the nation these days-- His defences do not fool anyone and he plays to lose--
This is why teams can come back every time vs BC late in the game--
Hulu
#3DownNation
Reilly was at practice this morning albeit with a slight limp. Dude never gets hurt...he is made of solid beard.
BC decided to stay in Hamilton between these 2 road games and are practicing at Mac. If I can find a schedule online, I might try to drop by the practice tomorrow.
12 points is a lot and I thought about grabbing it as I made the line 9.5. But BC on their second straight roadie with only 5 days turn around and coming off yet another gut punch loss with their season slipping away is not a spot I want to be backing.
Can’t take Peg full game either at the number.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Im not impressed with the PEG receivers when DARVIN IS OUT-- They have a bunch of LOW VOLUME catch receivers-- Guys that catch 1-2 passes--
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#3DownNation
Agreed. Matthews is a quality athlete and receiver but he doesn’t have the experience and chemistry with Nichols that Adams has.
I see some history repeating in Winnipeg. Last year, just as they looked poised to go on a tear (both ‘teed and I commented on it), they promptly fall apart and lost 4 straight. After that, they put it together and won 6 straight down the stretch and Nichols was practically flawless during that stretch.
And here we are again in 2019. Just when they look like a machine destroying everything in their path, they lose 2 straight to Hamilton and Toronto and then beat Calgary at home in less than convincing fashion with 2 special teams TDs.
I’d like to see a sign that they are back to being the dominant team that started the season before I back them again. When Adams returns, that might be the spark that lights the flame.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I find that Winnipeg is a very balanced team--- They are not dominant in any 1 area although on defence they do have 2 MVP guys in BIGHILL and JEFFERSON-
Winnipeg is very good on Special teams-- Their Defense is above average I find-- They have a good Front 7 for sure.. Lots of athletes on defence--
However offensively I find them to be AVERAGE-- Harris is a stud but I find he is basically the entire offence-- He caught 10 passes last week and he is a running back.
I find that Winnipeg offence does not have great reveivers--Demsly and Wolitraski are good canadian receiver but not dominant guys- Adams is hurt- Mathews is inconsistent and just a big play guy-- Lucky Whitehead is not Brandon Banks, he can't get open other than running the end around on offence--
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Burks I prefer- Wilder looks slow to me--
Every time i saw Wilder play i have not been imprssed-- He must have been good with Trestman a few seasons ago
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yeah you’re probably right. Burks is the better option at this point.
Wilder was amazing 2 years ago in his rookie season but then got a bug up his ass when he wasn’t allowed out of his contract to pursue an nfl opportunity. He begrudgingly reported but didn’t look interested at all and was a non factor all season. This year he re-signed (he’s not nfl caliber IMO) and seemed to be in a better frame of mind. He was out in public doing marketing for the team and just seemed more into it but it just hasn’t translated to production on the field.
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#3DownNation
I don't do this often but I am buying off this bet.
1* Montreal +7.5 -110
My thinking on this game has changed as I've read news out of practice. For the Alouettes, VAJ and Posey are back and Stanback is 90% certain. That's 3 key skill players that have made this offence tick. For the stamps, all signs point to Arbuckle starting which is fine but then Markeith Ambles went down in practice and their receiving group was already thin on talent. Wynton McManis and Cory Greenwood are likely out and that is scary against a healthy Stanback. It just seems like everything is lining up for the ALs and against the Stamps this week. I am content to risk a small loss with the chance for a middle if it lands on 6 or 7.
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#3DownNation
Declan Cross left off the game day roster.
Burks is listed as the starter and Wilder is the 2nd RB. Good.
Pyppurs
Pretty much a regular
Pyppurs
Pretty much a regular
Hulu
#3DownNation
He's practiced all week and will be starting
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#3DownNation
That's insane, isn't it? And to think, scoring is down overall by almost 2 points this season. If you reduced the number of kick return TDs to the level of a normal year, how much lower would it be yet? Unders would be hitting at 60% or so.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
bombers bomb first
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
One observation I’ve noticed about Jennings is that In these ugly type of games he always seems to lead his team late to victory. He almost did if ba Calgary. He gets blown out usually but if it’s close he seems to pull it ou.t
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Under could come through. Hard to see any tds. Should be fgoals
I see a lower scoring game. Come on cats you have to be able to beat Ottawa and their bs team.
I see a lower scoring game. Come on cats you have to be able to beat Ottawa and their bs team.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yeah the under is solid too. Beyond Jennings, this receiving corps is awful. Scarfone and Holley are not starting calibre receivers.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I have a lot of thoughts but no bet thus far on this game.
A few weeks ago I had this one circled after I saw these two play in Winnipeg. The Bombers won by 7 but Edmonton played well enough to win and could have if they could've finished drives. I think they had 7 field goals. So I had targeted Edmonton at home as a possible play as a short home fav. But a lot has changed since then, most notably Winnipeg's QB situation which has inflated this line and its probably about where it needs to be.
Besides their starting QB, Winnipeg has a ton of starters on the DL which will make this a tough game for them. Their defence had already been looking more vulnerable over the past few weeks and now without Jeffcoat, Roh, Briggs, Alexander, Humes, they are looking a little thin on defence. Harris and co had no trouble moving the ball last time in Winnipeg (just finishing) and I think they will be able to move it here too. The one thing the Bombers have going for them is that Edmonton is starting rookie Kyle Saxelid at LT which is always a red flag, especially when you consider he will be attempting to block one of the best DEs in the game, Willie Jefferson. But the Eskies quick passing offence is not prone to giving up sacks so the rookie LT may hurt them less than it would a lot of teams.
And what do we think about Streveler? For all the hype around this kid, he hasn't shown the ability to be a regular starter and pocket passer just yet. He looks good running a bunch of gimmicky package plays but those won't get you through a whole game and at some point you have to be able to stand in the pocket and deliver. Can he do that? Last season he was forced into action for the first 3 games and looked decent until teams caught on and figured out how to stop all the gimmick plays. I remember week 3 last season I faded him hard because it was the first serious defence he was playing and sure enough, he only put up 17 in that game @ Hamilton. Well here he is facing an elite defence, the best in the league and their DC, Philip Lolly is the CFL's answer to Dick Lebeau...blitz, blitz, blitz so I think Streveler might be in for a rough time tonight. This season he has only seen spot duty (beyond his short yardage and gimmick plays) and looked pretty poor when trying to be a real quarterback...9/16 82yrd 1TD 3INT...yuck. Now I know coming off the bench is a different thing than knowing you will start all week but I think the Bombers will struggle to get 20 vs this defence.
So I think Edmonton wins but I'm not about to pay -240 on the moneyline so the question then is can they cover -5.5? I think they can but this team also has a way of shooting themselves in the foot regularly. The Esks are the most penalized team in the league by a good stretch and I am pretty sure Winnipeg is the least. And don't forget Mass and his occasional bone-headed in-game decisions.
Also, it should be noted that this is the second, and last time these teams play this year and Winnipeg holds the points advantage by 7. So Edmonton needs the win by 8 or more to get the tie-breaker which could come into play by season's end. Maas is aware of this and said he will change his end game strategy to get those points. So if they're up by 5 or 6 at the end, they won't be kneeling it out.
So all things considered, I lean strongly to Edmonton -5.5 but I'm not sure if I will play it. One other consideration is taking the Edmonton ML in a parlay with an open spot to be filled later. Or I could split the bet between -5.5 and ML to reduce the juice in case the peg wins straight up.
Still thinking this one through. Hope I didn't make you sorry you asked. heh
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#3DownNation
Also lean under in this one if you can find a 47.5. If Winnipeg struggles to score 20, I think Edmonton tops out at 28 so its close but I think the nuder might be the better play here.
Winnipeg will lean heavily on their run game (as always) and Edmonton's short passing game eats a lot of clock too.
Winnipeg will lean heavily on their run game (as always) and Edmonton's short passing game eats a lot of clock too.
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#3DownNation
Ok I'm taking the plunge. I really think Edmonton wins this one outright so I am splitting my bet between side and ML. This way if the Esks cover, I still get my full unit. If they win but don't cover, I push and if they lose straight up, my juice is only -167 or so which I will lose less sleep over.
0.5*/0.5* Edmonton -5.5/ML -108/-226
Still lean under as well but I like this better.
0.5*/0.5* Edmonton -5.5/ML -108/-226
Still lean under as well but I like this better.
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#3DownNation
1* OTT / SSK under 49 -110
This total is just too high and I think it has something to do with the outlandish game these two played last time out. That was the week 2 game in Ottawa that had 85 points and went over in the second quarter. When I leave that game in my totals model, it spits out 49.5. When its removed, the total drops to 44.5. After also removing the lightning-shortened game that Sask played, I get 45.5. The other effect of that barn burner it is has the public thinking this is just what happens when these teams play. I've seen several tweets to that effect today. That's just silly...that game was a total aberration.
Anyway, the media is making a big deal of the fact that playcalling duties have been handed to Joe Paopao but I honestly don't see how much difference it will make. They still have an inexperienced QB who is making bad decisions and a sub-par group of receivers. About the only thing working is their running game and they will lean on it and use that clock.
eta...and when has PaoPao ever won anything anyways? He was a decent QB back in the day but had a horrible record as a coach.
Add in a chance of showers and t-storms that could help us and I think this is a solid play
This total is just too high and I think it has something to do with the outlandish game these two played last time out. That was the week 2 game in Ottawa that had 85 points and went over in the second quarter. When I leave that game in my totals model, it spits out 49.5. When its removed, the total drops to 44.5. After also removing the lightning-shortened game that Sask played, I get 45.5. The other effect of that barn burner it is has the public thinking this is just what happens when these teams play. I've seen several tweets to that effect today. That's just silly...that game was a total aberration.
Anyway, the media is making a big deal of the fact that playcalling duties have been handed to Joe Paopao but I honestly don't see how much difference it will make. They still have an inexperienced QB who is making bad decisions and a sub-par group of receivers. About the only thing working is their running game and they will lean on it and use that clock.
eta...and when has PaoPao ever won anything anyways? He was a decent QB back in the day but had a horrible record as a coach.
Add in a chance of showers and t-storms that could help us and I think this is a solid play
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#3DownNation
This has crept up to 48.5 and into bet territory as far as I'm concerned.
1* WPG / EDM under 48.5 -108
In addition to the aforementioned reasons, this is a heavyweight divisional battle for first place and I expect the defences to be amped and offenses to be a bit conservative at least to start as is usually the case. Also, we have some rain forecast and blustery winds possible. Not relying on the weather here but it can't hurt.
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#3DownNation
Thanks bud. Its been a tough season but it ain't over yet.
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#3DownNation
Results after Week 11
Sides 12-15-1 -7.872*
Totals 13-11 -0.070*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 7-4 +1.650*
Live 3-1 +0.700*
Overall 35-32-1 -6.092*
Advantage over close
Sides: +21 pts or 0.75ppb
Totals: +24.5 pts or 1.02ppb
Disasterous couple of weeks but I have no one to blame but myself. Drives me nuts that I am beating the market handily with opening plays but still losing so much. The books must be making good money off the CFL this year because the large majority of line movement has been going the wrong way. It also drives me nuts that my smaller plays have been doing quite well while all the larger unit plays have lost.
Maybe I should just focus more on live and 2H bets because it seems to be the only thing going right for me this season.
My loss tolerance this season is 10 units. If I hit that, I stop.
Sides 12-15-1 -7.872*
Totals 13-11 -0.070*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 7-4 +1.650*
Live 3-1 +0.700*
Overall 35-32-1 -6.092*
Advantage over close
Sides: +21 pts or 0.75ppb
Totals: +24.5 pts or 1.02ppb
Disasterous couple of weeks but I have no one to blame but myself. Drives me nuts that I am beating the market handily with opening plays but still losing so much. The books must be making good money off the CFL this year because the large majority of line movement has been going the wrong way. It also drives me nuts that my smaller plays have been doing quite well while all the larger unit plays have lost.
Maybe I should just focus more on live and 2H bets because it seems to be the only thing going right for me this season.
My loss tolerance this season is 10 units. If I hit that, I stop.
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