UFL 2025

[RBD]

Record: 0-0

I'm excited.
Well, semi-excited.
The UFL survived its inaugural season and is back for year two.

And tonight is game one: St Lou/Houston
Line: St Louis -6, total 37'

I spent about two hours handicapping the UFL today (Yes, I actually DO have a life, it's just that I'm stuck home today recuperating, so I'm doing a lot of number crunching to pass the time and fight off boredom.)

Here's the method I used to handicap last year:

"It's difficult to beat a sport when you know the coach players and stats. It's even more difficult when you don't know much about the teams, the coaches, the players, and the stats, such as with a new league like the UFL.
I think one way to win is to find someone who thinks they know what they're doing but really doesn't, and . . . Fade them."

Small bets, just for some fun, action, and to test the theory.

I have a data sample of picks from 16 touts and sports "analysts" for tonight's game.
Here are the numbers:
St L 9, Hou 6, 1 Push;
Ov 2, Un 8
(Everyone gives their opinion on a side but not everyone gives out a play on the total.)

Using the basic premise that books don't stay in business by paying everyone I'll normally Fade the consensus play, for example tonight I'll take the Over.

Not going to be an easy to get a win with an Over tonight because:

Defenses are usually ahead of the offense in the early going of the season,
and . . .
There's lousy weather tonight with heavy rain in the forecast, which means they'll likely run the ball a lot and use up a lot of clock,
and . . .
Houston had the worst offense in the league last year and for some unfathomable reason they brought back the same coaching staff.

But what the hell - I haven't been able to bet on football since the Superbowl bowl and I'm jonesing just a bit.

Game time's not until another hour and a half from now so I'll wait to buy, thinking I can get the hook off the 37.
I'll try to stop back in with the number I end up buying.

My Play:
St L/Houston Ov (wait to buy)

Good luck for anyone venturing into the unknown with the UFL season two.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff, hope ya got the hook off.

Looking forward to more UFL content.

 

[RBD]

Thanks B.A.R,
I'll be stopping in with more UFL, and WNBA when it starts.

"Hope ya got the hook off."
This is where some people would say, "Yes, I did" because they don't want to take a loss.
But...
"It ain't me, babe. No, no, no it ain't me babe."
(Pardon the Dylanism, I watched A Complete Unknown last night. Kind of boring, just my op.)
FAKE RECORDS DO NOT HELP BETTORS.
They're employed by touts looking to scam forum members or insecure lifeless gits looking for attention and ill-gained respect.
One of the reasons I contribute here is that that BS doesn't fly at CTG.
So no, I didn't get the hook off.
Should have though, (but everything's easy in hindsight, yes?)

Record: 0-1
Recap: None of the books I use dropped the hook off the 37', and I'm not one for buying points and paying higher juice.
Game landed on 37.

Took an ugly loss thanks in part to not one, not two, but THREE "point after" attempts failed.

Not to mention Houston's overall suckage.

From yesterday's post:
"Houston had the worst offense in the league last year and for some unfathomable reason they brought back the same coaching staff."
I counted at least three times during the game that the announcers commented on Houston coach CJ Johnson's decision making, using a "What the hell is he thinking??!!" tone.

From play calling to clock management and using timeouts, he's just all-around-awful.
When I watch this guy I find myself wondering if he understands the object of the game is to score more points than the other team.

Game one is in the books and he's well on his way to exceeding last year's superior effort that had the Roughnecks finish the season at 1-9. (After which the owners will inexplicably sign him up for another year.)

Anyway . . .
Here are tonight's numbers:
SA 3, ARL 11
Ov 6, Un 3

LY when the Over had at least three or more picks than the Under it won at a 67% clip.
Today's game qualifies and I'm on it.

LY when one side had a consensus of four or more than the other team they hit at 63%.
Arlington qualifies tonight.

The Renegades dropped from an opening +3 to the current +2/+2'.
With the various options for point after plays (you can go for one, two or three points) not getting a full field goal isn't as relevant in the UFL as it is in the NFL. Still, not buying at the right time and getting the best number is never a good thing.

Today, same thing for me as last night.
Taking the Over.
Four and a half hours left before game time and the Under has higher juice on it so again I'm going to wait to buy this and hope I can get that hook off.

My Play:
SA/Arl Ov (wait to buy)

 

[twinkie13]

Great stuff

GL

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Twinkie.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-1

Review: Nailed the Over on SA/ARL.
Ended up getting it at 38, not the best number but it landed on 42 so all is good.

Here are the numbers for today:

Michigan 8, Memphis 4
Ov 2, Un 8

Birmingham 15, DC 0
Ov 8, Un 1

So what do I have based on last year's notes?

LY when the Over had at least three or more picks than the Under it won at a 67% clip.
Yesterday the SA/Arlington game qualified.
And it went Over.
Over in Birmingham/DC qualifies today.

LY when one side had a consensus of four or more than the other team they hit at 63%.
Yesterday, Arlington qualified and won.
Michigan and Birmingham qualify today.

LY teams that were a unanimous pick were 1-2 ATS.
Birmingham is a unanimous choice today.

So I have a couple possible plays today, based on numbers above from last year. (Note - it's sports betting, so as we all know, just because something worked last year doesn't mean it will work this year. But with little else to go on in the way of history, stats, and experience from watching coaches and teams it's as good a way to handicap as anything else I have.)

I was going to take Michigan but the game opened at Mich -3' and is now sitting at -7.
I have a general rule that if the line moves three points or more against me because I didn't buy it early - stay off the game.

Not sure what I'll play today, if anything. I have some basketball action to keep me amused. If I add a UFL play I'll post an update in this thread, share the numbers above in case anyone was looking for edges or angles to make a UFL play today.

Good luck with your play today...