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#3DownNation
Nope it’s headed down more so I grabbed another half unit at 52 while I still could. Full bet now as follows...
0.5*/0.5* OTT / WPG under 52/52.5 -107/-112
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Nope it’s headed down more so I grabbed another half unit at 52 while I still could. Full bet now as follows...
0.5*/0.5* OTT / WPG under 52/52.5 -107/-112
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I forgot my cell phone at home-- What is the team total for Winnipeg?
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#3DownNation
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Amazing pick buddy-- 3-0 Winnipeg-- Winnipeg great second half under team-- Plays totally with clock in mind-
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#3DownNation
Missed the openers and I'm regretting it because Hamilton opened as a 2.5pt fav and I would've smashed the shit out of the other side of that. Hard to find value this week but we'll figure it out as we go. I do like this one total and I suspect it continues downward so grabbing a chunk now...
1* WPG / HAM under 54.5 -110
1* WPG / HAM under 54.5 -110
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#3DownNation
The more I look at this one, the more I like it. But thinking more, I wouldn't be surprised if this number rises toward kickoff as the public gets involved. If I can get a point higher than this number, I'll probably add a bit.
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#3DownNation
1* TOR / EDM under 51.5 -110
I liked the under here already and noticed it dropped from 53 so grabbing it now. Looks like there is a good possibility of severe wind in Edmonton on Thursday afternoon. Its a bit tough to call this far out but it could be a factor. More importanbtly though, whilst doing a mini-writeup in the discussion thread, I realized that this is a stronger under play than I first thought. The Esks line will be after MBT all night and any offense the Argos do generate will be of a time consuming nature through short passes, screens and the running game. Edmonton's offense already function like that so the clock will be ticking a lot. The wind warnings push it over the edge into a play for me.
I liked the under here already and noticed it dropped from 53 so grabbing it now. Looks like there is a good possibility of severe wind in Edmonton on Thursday afternoon. Its a bit tough to call this far out but it could be a factor. More importanbtly though, whilst doing a mini-writeup in the discussion thread, I realized that this is a stronger under play than I first thought. The Esks line will be after MBT all night and any offense the Argos do generate will be of a time consuming nature through short passes, screens and the running game. Edmonton's offense already function like that so the clock will be ticking a lot. The wind warnings push it over the edge into a play for me.
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#3DownNation
Took another half unit on WPG -1 -110 right before post
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I'll take the HONOUR to start this weeks thread for the Syndicate....
Winnipeg -14.5 at Toronto 48.5
Sask -2.5 Home to Hamilton 50.5
Montreal -7.5 at Home to Ottawa 53.5
Calgary -1 at Home to Edmonton 48
Quite simply my Friends, its time to god damn DOMINATE--- Let's talk some WINNERS--
I feel that Winnipeg at Toronto line of -14.5 is based on the fact that Toronto is the worst team in the CFL- (BC is likely even worse) vs Winnipeg who was one of the better teams in the Cfl. However to think that Winnipeg is going to come out and just dominate Toronto with a 38-13 score or 41-10 score is wishful thinking-- I mean sure it could happen-- Winnipeg is likely pissed off from losing to HAMILTON last week--
2 scenarios- CAN THEY JUST NAME THEIR SCORE vs Winnipeg? Can they come out focussed and blast TORONTO and dominate all game long?
OR does Winnipeg know they have an easy WIN, and in CFL fashion, just basically know that they just need to play 2 good quarters to secure the win vs the Argos.. Is there a chance that the ARGOS win this game? The Argos unlike BC have talent on the team-- They just don't have a very good QB-- He throws too many INTS and cannot run-
I tend to believe the fact that the CFL has practice time limits and at this point in the season players are getting tired, miss their homes, and start to mail it in.. I am unsure that Winnipeg can just name the score here--
I feel that I would lean to TORONTO plus 14.5, but not pulling the trigger yet-- CFL is not like College or NFL where execution can be trusted-- Some games the team will just not show up at all---
Sask- Hamilton-- NO play-- Although I will be the first to tell you-- DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE the hamilton backup QB-- I think he is good- I like his confidence and he has moxie-- I think the CATS can be just as good with him at QB-- He looks like a starter in the CFL TO ME---
Montreal -7.5 to Ottawa-- I really think this line if it was 3 weeks ago would have been Ottawa -4 in Montreal-- 11.5 point SWING because of Montreal winning 3 in a row and Ottawa losing 4 in a row--
Ottawa is well coached in the sense that they will GIVE EFFORT- They have the best linebackers in the CFL- Defensively Ottawa is FINE-- its offence but they are getting their starting QB back for this game-- Revenge match as well-- Ottawa should cover easily here-- They can win this game outright- I think this game in my mind should be a pick spread-- So i believe you are getting a free 7.5 points here--
Montreal before their 3 game losing streak were just as bad as BC, in the sense that they were losing like crazy for the last few years--- So lets be smart here- Ottawa is a live underdog--
Calgary -1 to edmonton-- 2 bullshit teams that I have no interest in playing-- CALGARY is very tricky this season- Hard to read them-- Edmonton on the road also hard to read--
TOP PLAY of the week is OTTAWA +7.5 Moneyline also---
Leans-- Argos 14.5 but no play yet pending more RESEARCH and MEDITATION to gain insights on the game--
Winnipeg -14.5 at Toronto 48.5
Sask -2.5 Home to Hamilton 50.5
Montreal -7.5 at Home to Ottawa 53.5
Calgary -1 at Home to Edmonton 48
Quite simply my Friends, its time to god damn DOMINATE--- Let's talk some WINNERS--
I feel that Winnipeg at Toronto line of -14.5 is based on the fact that Toronto is the worst team in the CFL- (BC is likely even worse) vs Winnipeg who was one of the better teams in the Cfl. However to think that Winnipeg is going to come out and just dominate Toronto with a 38-13 score or 41-10 score is wishful thinking-- I mean sure it could happen-- Winnipeg is likely pissed off from losing to HAMILTON last week--
2 scenarios- CAN THEY JUST NAME THEIR SCORE vs Winnipeg? Can they come out focussed and blast TORONTO and dominate all game long?
OR does Winnipeg know they have an easy WIN, and in CFL fashion, just basically know that they just need to play 2 good quarters to secure the win vs the Argos.. Is there a chance that the ARGOS win this game? The Argos unlike BC have talent on the team-- They just don't have a very good QB-- He throws too many INTS and cannot run-
I tend to believe the fact that the CFL has practice time limits and at this point in the season players are getting tired, miss their homes, and start to mail it in.. I am unsure that Winnipeg can just name the score here--
I feel that I would lean to TORONTO plus 14.5, but not pulling the trigger yet-- CFL is not like College or NFL where execution can be trusted-- Some games the team will just not show up at all---
Sask- Hamilton-- NO play-- Although I will be the first to tell you-- DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE the hamilton backup QB-- I think he is good- I like his confidence and he has moxie-- I think the CATS can be just as good with him at QB-- He looks like a starter in the CFL TO ME---
Montreal -7.5 to Ottawa-- I really think this line if it was 3 weeks ago would have been Ottawa -4 in Montreal-- 11.5 point SWING because of Montreal winning 3 in a row and Ottawa losing 4 in a row--
Ottawa is well coached in the sense that they will GIVE EFFORT- They have the best linebackers in the CFL- Defensively Ottawa is FINE-- its offence but they are getting their starting QB back for this game-- Revenge match as well-- Ottawa should cover easily here-- They can win this game outright- I think this game in my mind should be a pick spread-- So i believe you are getting a free 7.5 points here--
Montreal before their 3 game losing streak were just as bad as BC, in the sense that they were losing like crazy for the last few years--- So lets be smart here- Ottawa is a live underdog--
Calgary -1 to edmonton-- 2 bullshit teams that I have no interest in playing-- CALGARY is very tricky this season- Hard to read them-- Edmonton on the road also hard to read--
TOP PLAY of the week is OTTAWA +7.5 Moneyline also---
Leans-- Argos 14.5 but no play yet pending more RESEARCH and MEDITATION to gain insights on the game--
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Hulu get ready this week, I bought you a nice pair of BRASS KNUCKLES--
We swinging hard this week my MAN, we swinging to knock some Bookie teeth out-- Bookie gonna need a good Dental plan this week.
We swinging hard this week my MAN, we swinging to knock some Bookie teeth out-- Bookie gonna need a good Dental plan this week.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Good work Sammy. Your thoughts make a lot of sense to me. I would have said a lot of the same.
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#3DownNation
Sammy, thanks for getting the discussion started this week. A couple of delayed flights has allowed me to get my feet underneath me so here's some initial thoughts on this week's games.
WPG/TOR
Like you, I can't take Winnipeg here. All they want is the W and they aren't concerned with blowing anyone out. Additionally, they got pretty beat up vs Hamilton last week. It looks like Chris Matthews will start in place of Darvin Adams this week. But we also have Brandon Alexander hurt at practice so his status is questionable. SB Drew Wolitarsky, SLB Anthony Gaitor, S Jeff Hecht and LS Chad Rempel were all dinged and have not practiced this week. The way O'Shea plays games with media and fans make it almost impossible to determine who will be out there. I see 2 possible ways to bet this game...Winnipeg 1Q is always worth a look and the Argos have gotten off to slow starts a number of times this season, but the nnumber won't be good, probably -3.5 or 4. Alternately, wait for Winnipeg builds their lead and then take 2H under when they shut it down. Last time these 2 played, the Bombers were up 28-0 after only 12 plays from scrimmage and then really took their foot off the gas which killed it. I don't know that they let up again because this team is too well coached for that to happen. Total is about right.
HAM/SSK
I see a few +3 out there and at first glance Hamilton looks to have some value at that number. Their defence was lights out against Winnipeg but Cody Fajardo is a lot more mobile than Matt Nichols so I don't know if the cats DL will look as dominating again. Sask is looking a lot better than they are after 2 wins against the hopeless Lions. BUT...DE Adrian Tracy, SB Brandon Banks and RG Darius Ciraco have all been absent from practice this week and Simoni Lawrence will serve the 2nd game of his suspension. Obviously Banks being out would have the biggest impact and wouldn't make Dane Evans' life any easier. And speaking of Evans, I'd like to see more of him before I back him on the road on a short week. Total looks right on the money to me.
OTT/MTL
Complete agreement from me Sammy. I don't think Montreal is in a position to be favoured by more than a TD against anyone just yet. They just lost their RT Tyler Johnstone. Ottawa's linebacking corps looked a lot better with Kevin Brown back at the WIL and Avery back in the middle last week. Also the defensive line has more depth with Lattanzio back. Not sure Ottawa wins this but I will happily take over a TD here. This total also looks a bit high to me but I am not quite sure what to make of Montreal's offence just yet. They did put up 36pts last time these teams met.
EDM/CAL
Yeah Calgary is tough to figure out. Arbuckle is up and down and their receiver are not anywhere near as talented as last season. Eric Rogers has looked awful at times. Begelton and Brescasin are the best 2 options but Bresacsin left the game last week and has yet to practice this week so he is a question mark. Also, Ka'deem Carey is unlikely to play so with both he and Don Jackson out, who carries the mail? Terry Williams will likely see the lion's share of carries but Romar Morris coming back off injury is also a possibility. I really like the under here but wouldn't take it any lower than 47.5. I also think Edmonton has some value as they are still +1 at some shops. They will have Davaris Daniels and CJ Gable this week which should help their offence. Edmonton pk or better is a strong lean for me.
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#3DownNation
Ok the more I think about it, I have to get on this. The +1's are gone so I think the timing is right to get some money down before I wake up and its -2.5 or somesuch.
1* Edmonton -1 -104
I said this last week as well but if you look at Calgary's season in totality it isn't impressive at all.
Week 1 - lose at home to Ottawa
Week 2 - bye
Week 3 - losing badly to BC before a late collapse allows them to come back and win
Week 4 - Only solid game of the year @ Sask but Fajardo had the worst game of his season
Week 5 - Go to Hamilton and repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot to lose
Week 6 - Takes 7 turnovers to beat the Argos by 10 at home. One of only twice the Argos have covered all year (other was vs BC)
Week 7 - Should've lost to a Jon Jennings led Ottawa team until Campbell's coaching error allowed them to win on the final play.
Other than @ Sask, I don't see a solid game in there anywhere and its beena pretty weak schedule. They haven't played WPG or EDM yet at all and the only decent team they have played was Hamilton. And now they're in injury purgatory again with 17 players on the injured list.
Historically, betting against the Stamps at home is not good for your bankroll but this is not your fathers Stampeders team and the books just haven't caught up yet. I see a 23-17 Eskies win and I think they should be favoured by 3 or more.
1* Edmonton -1 -104
I said this last week as well but if you look at Calgary's season in totality it isn't impressive at all.
Week 1 - lose at home to Ottawa
Week 2 - bye
Week 3 - losing badly to BC before a late collapse allows them to come back and win
Week 4 - Only solid game of the year @ Sask but Fajardo had the worst game of his season
Week 5 - Go to Hamilton and repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot to lose
Week 6 - Takes 7 turnovers to beat the Argos by 10 at home. One of only twice the Argos have covered all year (other was vs BC)
Week 7 - Should've lost to a Jon Jennings led Ottawa team until Campbell's coaching error allowed them to win on the final play.
Other than @ Sask, I don't see a solid game in there anywhere and its beena pretty weak schedule. They haven't played WPG or EDM yet at all and the only decent team they have played was Hamilton. And now they're in injury purgatory again with 17 players on the injured list.
Historically, betting against the Stamps at home is not good for your bankroll but this is not your fathers Stampeders team and the books just haven't caught up yet. I see a 23-17 Eskies win and I think they should be favoured by 3 or more.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Edmonton is clearly the better team in this match up...
Consider the following interpretations--
Edmonton Defense is very good- Pass rush has been best in league-- Offensively they are efficient with Harris and Maas-- Edmonton is in the top 3 teams in the CFL--
Winnipeg Hamilton and Edmonton are the 3 best teams in the league--
Calgary has lost their entire front 7, which was their DOMINANCE from past seasons-- Their secondary is still good-- However their O Line is suspect now, and their passing game just looks very lost-- Too many long and lanky receiver who lack any speed- Rogers has looked slow, and others cannot get open either....
Who is CALGARY? They are a team that almost lost to OTTAWA with Jennings at QB-
They are a team who only beat Toronto 26-16 at home despite intercepting Toronto 4 times and creating 6 turnovers?
They are a team who was losing by double digits to BC at HOME in the last few mins before rallying back for the win-- If they were losing to BC at home, then they are really some serious questions to be asked of CALGARY-- The fact that they were losing to BC at home shows me Edmonton can definitely beat calgary.. BC is in disarray, and in no WORLD would BC be even close to winning in CALGARY.
I really feel that this match and odds are based on REPUTATION-- Calgary is in decline due to injuries and also due to TALENT LOSS---
Edmonton is quietly very impressive team, good offence as well, their receiver $4 TAVON SMITH is very very good- Ellington, Daniels and their running back SHAQ COOPER looks really fast and good-
I agree with a lower scoring game, and I feel Edmonton will win this game-- Calgary is not the same calgary- They are not as physical and when they are not as physical they will lose--
Calgary for the past 5 seasons have had players that are JUST a little bigger and stronger than the average CFL player- They essentially had players who were NFL fringe players in terms of size and speed-- Now all those big and fast guys like Singleton, Thurman, Micah johnson, Charlie Hughes, Jegarde Davis are all gone.. This is why they do not look amazing-- Not to mention losses on their O line which was always the best in the CFL--
Calgary I agree is middle of the road---
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Are CFL TEAMS now using the LOAD management principle? Like the common sense approach to resting guys and not using players like FACTORY WIDGETS and burning them out like an overworked BARTENDER?
Even OSHEA In Winnipeg said when BIGHILL was hurt with a hamstring issue, he was given 1 month off to rest, because OSHEA said he wants him healthy for the last 2/3 of the season.
So let's monitor the injuries!
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
And PARBUCKLE has not shown any ability to avoid the RUSH--- He does not have quick foot speed and scrambling ability. He needs a lot of time to process his reads, vs Ottawa it was very evident early on that the CGY offensive line that they could not handle the Ottawa pass rush....
I feel as if they will not be able to handle the Edmonton pass rush..
Besides when a team is dominant like CALGARY, and they are playing their main RIVAL, what better time is there for Edmonton to beat Calgary? There is no BETTER TIME than RIGHT NOW-- New team, new QB, big talent loss, etc-------
See the teams AS THEY ARE, NOT AS THEY APPEAR TO BE!
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#3DownNation
@Sammy Meatballs , any opinion on the total in Montreal? I belatedly made it 51.5 and its dropped a bit but its still sitting at 53.5
Montreal's defence has looked pretty darn good during this winning streak and Ottawa's defence is no slouch either.
Montreal's defence has looked pretty darn good during this winning streak and Ottawa's defence is no slouch either.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Hullu I really agree with your SENTIMENTS regarding Winnipeg just looking for the WIN---
To cover a BIG CFL spread I feel we need to come up with a FORMULA, like a CALCULUS style EQUATION that we can use to predict CFL blowouts..
To cover a BIG CFL spread I feel we need to come up with a FORMULA, like a CALCULUS style EQUATION that we can use to predict CFL blowouts..
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Clear LEAN to the UNDER on this game for the reasons you stated.. 2 very good defences, great linebackers and secondaries on the field.. I feel that Ottawa is an UNDER team as they clearly are not as OFFENSIVE as they were last season- However they still have RICK CAMPBELL, and the majority of their defensive guys are there.
Both teams employ quite a bit of running- Stanback and this new kid CROCKETT are used quite a bit.. Ottawa does not have a downfield deep passing attack, but MONTREAL with ADAMS has been making a lot of SPLASH PLAYS, hitting deep passes--
If you can contain ADAMS ability to hit the deep ball of broken plays, it could be more of a defensive type of game..
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#3DownNation
Yeah exactly. VA is the wild card in this one. Against Edmonton, his mobility really negated a lot of their pass rush but Ottawa's defensive strength is the back 8 so I'm not sure he's as effective against them. Have to think this one through a bit although I see its down to 53 just about everywhere
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
What are the KEY FACTORS that can predict a BLOWOUT (Covering Double Digit Spreads) by a CFL team?
1. Favored team's Offense has to bring its ABSOLUTE A GAME to the table-- If a team shows up with their B game or C game or even A- game it may not be enough to cover?
2. Underdogs Offense has to go 2 and out at least 8 times a game-- Figure about 4 times per half the opposition (underdog) must go 2 and out 4 time a half..
3. Favourites teams Defense has to generate a PASS rush and disrupt the UNDERDOG thus forcing them into 4 2 and outs per half leading to short fields--
4. Underdogs Defense has to be PASSIVE and generate NO PASS RUSH-- The favourite should be able to move the ball vs an underdog defence like the BC LIONS who generate NO PASS rush and sit back in PASSIVE ZONES doing nothing..
5. Favorite TEAM Must WIN THE SPECIAL teams battle. Losing the Special teams battle for a favourite can cost the favourite the cover.. I think at least the Favourite has to play the underdog to a DRAW on special teams--- Special teams is the X factor, the JOKER CARD, it can seriously aid the underdog in covering the spread.
I believe with these 5 factors we can analyze them and predict how the larger spreads like WINNIPEG -14.5 will play out-- Let us use the Winnipeg game as a test---
Spread -14.5 Winnipeg--
To cover Winnipeg will need the following to occur--
1. Winnipeg Offence must bring its A+ GAME to Toronto- Vs Hamiton they brought their C- game to Hamilton. I am not sure even a B performance by the Winnipeg offence will be enough to cover the spread.
2. Will Toronto and Bethel Mcleaod Thompson go 2 and out 4 times a half? I feel if the answer is something like Toronto only went 2 and out twice for the game, that winnipeg will be in trouble.. Toronto if they don't go 2 and out a lot, will have a GREAT CHANCE at covering the spread IMO..
3. Winnipeg Pass rush and Front 7- Will Winnipeg dominate the Toronto O line, forcing punts and 2 and outs-- Will they shut down JAMES WILDER and the run from toronto. For Winnipeg to cover they will need a passionate and spirited effort from the front 7 for sure.
4. Toronto Defense? Do they play hard? What grade do they get? If they show up and play a A effort or A- or even B+ it could bode well for the ARGOS here.
5. Special teams-- A chris RAINEY TD or a LUCKY WHITEHEAD TD could decide the spread- If the underdog gets good special teams plays, it could lead to an easy ARGOS COVER..
Using my new state of the art ANALYSTICS here, I believe now you can clearly see why its not easy covering a double digit spread in the CFL--
There are many facets of the game that need to be won by a CFL team to cover a big spread.
For this game I see more scenarios that TORONTO would be able to cover the spread than WINNIPEG would..
Mainly the key points are that Winnipeg if they play average in 2 of the 5 areas above will not be able to win by more than 14.5 points.
If Toronto plays at an A level in 2 of the 5 categories I feel there chance for a cover is good..
I think when all things are considered asking Winnipeg to win by 15 on the road, is too much to ask for. After looking at my factors I feel that Toronto can stay within the number.. Toronto has talent- They are not BC- They have receivers- they have defenders- Mica AWE, Sean Lemon, Antigua, LANG, etc..
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
In week 4 Ottawa was -9.5 at home to Montreal..
In week 7 Montreal is -7.5 at home to Ottawa..
I do not see the justification of a 17 point swing in the spread- Due to recent play of the teams of course and the game is in Montreal..
I see this 17 points as a MIRAGE-- I think Ottawa is better than that-- They are on Montreals level.. Although I will say Montreal is really improving fast, but when teams are favoured and hunted and no longer overlooked I believe it becomes harder to play as a FAVORITE--
Montreal was tough when people underestimated them, now teams will not underestimate them.
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#3DownNation
Good point. Montreal is not sneaking up on anyone now
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#3DownNation
Good stuff. If I were forced to pick a side it would be Argos or nothing for me but I need to see a sign of life from them before I'm ready to back them, even with this many points.
Its worth noting though that they re-signed Bear Woods this week. I don't know if he'll play but he was a real leader on this team 2 seasons ago before his back surgery and could give this team a lift. Don't know if he plays this week though.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Exactly this formula can be used to basically STAY off both teams-- If too many unanswered questions then NO PLAY--
I think our syndicate needs to DEVELOP a scientific style system like above--- It really brings a more pointed analytical approach..
I believe that INTUITION is a great skill in picking winners, however if we combine INTUITION with a CHECKLIST like above.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
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#3DownNation
Further to this...I found this interesting...
What does Edmonton’s defence do best? Get after the QB. Best in the league.
And Calgary? 2nd to last in sacks allowed.
And Calgary’s defence has feasted off interceptions. What has Trevor Harris not done this year? Throw interceptions.
I like this bet more and more.
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#3DownNation
Adrian Tracy also out for Hamilton. He’s a great DE but they do have a lot of depth there.
RG Ciraco also out but Kay Okafor is a capable replacement.
Hamilton is in tough to compete here.
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#3DownNation
So Collaros won’t play this week but will his arrival give this team a psychological lift in the same way that Bear Woods signing might? A sign to the team that management is working to make improvements?
Shawn Lemon is back in the starting lineup as well.
Armanti Edwards also back.
With all this and Winnipeg being down a couple of guys, I’m starting to think this line should be more like 10.5.
For the love of god, someone please talk me off betting the Argos here.
Shawn Lemon is back in the starting lineup as well.
Armanti Edwards also back.
With all this and Winnipeg being down a couple of guys, I’m starting to think this line should be more like 10.5.
For the love of god, someone please talk me off betting the Argos here.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
oh yeah
