Friday Discussion Thread

I really wish josiah grsy didht walk so fucking many! I want to back nats and I love wheeler, it more about the Philly offense and how they chasing so much trash. I really wonder if they will even be disciplined enough to take the walks gray will give them? Could be he has a loe walk high k game here w way thru flailing at stuff out the zone, even fastballs I counted a bunch of scherzer fastballs clearly off the plate they were swinging at. I dunno if they pressing or there something in the air effecting their freaking vision?’ Believe it or not nats have one the best batting averages in the league and they don’t strike out much so I think they can scrape w few runs off wheeler. Really just cones down to josiah.
 
I see a few out totals that look playable today, maybe more so than k props as they have kinda jacked the numbers on a few guys I like. Think I slipped up w Jon gray, pretty sure I woke up in middle the night and thought I saw a 5.5 for him which would be pound town against seattle high striking out asses. I didn’t get up and go tho and now he up to 6.5, I’ll play 6.5’s but it feels like such a massive difference needing 7 opposed to 6. He can easily get 6 k’s in a 4-5 inning start, to get 7 you would think he prob needs to get into the 6th which Is certainly possible here, seattle bats still struggling and they have a ton of swing and miss going on.
 
Damn, 7.5 for Edwardo Cabrera, he can def punch 8 vs oakland but that a big ask for him, he doesn’t pitch deep enough consistently but you would kinda expect he has a good chance to in this park vs a’s lineup.
 
Should be a heck of a game in Texas tonight (houston also). I really like both Castillo and gray but I think gray has to have the edge with all the swinging and missing seattle offense doing right now. His overall numbers look bad but he got off to a slow start, he had been fantastic over the past month including a 7 inning 8k gem in Seattle where he has struggled in prior seasons. Love his chance to stifle seattle offense at home. Unfortunately books lined this really smart with Texas being small favs over the Ff while seattle favs for game, you have to respect the pen advantage seattle has here but I do wonder if seattle bats can take advantage of that? Rangers offense is on a totally different level so I think it gonna be much tougher for Castillo to match gray here.
 
2daBank said:
I see a few out totals that look playable today, maybe more so than k props as they have kinda jacked the numbers on a few guys I like. Think I slipped up w Jon gray, pretty sure I woke up in middle the night and thought I saw a 5.5 for him which would be pound town against seattle high striking out asses. I didn’t get up and go tho and now he up to 6.5, I’ll play 6.5’s but it feels like such a massive difference needing 7 opposed to 6. He can easily get 6 k’s in a 4-5 inning start, to get 7 you would think he prob needs to get into the 6th which Is certainly possible here, seattle bats still struggling and they have a ton of swing and miss going on.
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Love me some outs! Looking forward to the plays.
 
Inspekdah said:
Love me some outs! Looking forward to the plays.
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Im trying to work thru card as quick I can, I had some stuff I had to do this morning so getting kinda late start, I was making those other post while I was out running errands, I’m bad about posting and driving!! Lol. They have my main hwy all fucjed up w construction tho, only way I can adhere to the 50 mph speed limit is to post and text!
 
Call me crazy but I think the reds worth a serious look. Burnes has not been the same dude and if you been listening to me talk bout the reds lately you know I been super impressed with their ability to foul off good pitches and battle back wken behind in counts against guys with very good stuff. Burnes is missing in the middle the plate a lot more these days along w little less velo than in the past. He still makes good pitches but if reds can fight those off they will get some cracks at cutters in the heart of the plate! Im
Not suggesting they will crush him but I do think there a world where it reasonable to expect them to get 3-4 runs off him over 5-6 innings.

The tough part of this cap is I have no clue on this Williamson kid? The scouts seem to like him more than the results he got last year in triple a and this, his k’s not impressive and he walking way too many. He does have some really good pitch shape to several different offerings and he a big 6’6 lefty, there is obviously potential here. There certainly risk but then you gotta remember the brewers strike out over 32% the time vs lhp! Amd despite the low k rate Williamson is sporting a swinging strike rate close to 12%. He could be a real problem for a milw team who has the lowest ops in baseball vs lhp!
 
I was hoping to do something like reds Ff over combined with playing their ml but books have them at 2.5 opposed to 1.5 vs Burnes which I think that in itself should tell us something about the potential for them to score some runs here.
 
I just noticed this a fucjing weird start time, I dunno how or if that effects things? I assume the roof be opened? Will there be a shadow problem? The Ff total is really high.
 
2daBank said:
Call me crazy but I think the reds worth a serious look. Burnes has not been the same dude and if you been listening to me talk bout the reds lately you know I been super impressed with their ability to foul off good pitches and battle back wken behind in counts against guys with very good stuff. Burnes is missing in the middle the plate a lot more these days along w little less velo than in the past. He still makes good pitches but if reds can fight those off they will get some cracks at cutters in the heart of the plate! Im
Not suggesting they will crush him but I do think there a world where it reasonable to expect them to get 3-4 runs off him over 5-6 innings.

The tough part of this cap is I have no clue on this Williamson kid? The scouts seem to like him more than the results he got last year in triple a and this, his k’s not impressive and he walking way too many. He does have some really good pitch shape to several different offerings and he a big 6’6 lefty, there is obviously potential here. There certainly risk but then you gotta remember the brewers strike out over 32% the time vs lhp! Amd despite the low k rate Williamson is sporting a swinging strike rate close to 12%. He could be a real problem for a milw team who has the lowest ops in baseball vs lhp!
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Last time you told me Reds were not a very good lineup
 
After hammering cubs pitching I then watched the vs Bello who I like a lot and he got them in one 2 strike count after another and they fouled off pitch after pitch working counts back to full. It not like he a guy that doesn’t have put away stuff and they ran his pitch count craxy high in 2 innings. Paxton did punch them out a lot and I played his k prop but they once again really worked him and got him to 100 pitches at 5 innings. Last game sale was working then before going out but sale a different animal and I think they a much better lineup vs righties.
 
I think the total screams they liking what they been seeing from reds bats. I woulda thought for sure 1.5 vs Burnes and 3.5 for game but nope, 2.5 and 4.5, w plus money but still. I think reds will put up some runs here, the key gonna be the Williamson kid, will milw work walks or will they swing thru the plethora of sliders, change ups, and curves he will throw at them?
 
God dammit, I just came across river to make bets and fucking josiah gray and ober both went from 16.5 outs w low juice to fucking 17.5, someone must have pounded them in last 10 min. Ain’t that a fucking bitch. That really fucks up my card.

I did go ahead a play Valdez ov5.5 k’s, I know it -180 but I can’t believe he was bet down, I was gonna play over 6.5! I think we talking a 65% chance he punches at least 6.
 
Ober is still a play for me at ov 17.5 outs even money. I think josiah is a pass at that extra out. These wernt the slam dunk type anyways I just thought solid plays.
 
If Rocco proved anything yesterday he willing to leave his starters in longer than he should! I know cle offense is looking much better lately but ober totally dominated them for 7 innings a month or so ago. I think he more than capable of giving us 6 innings here as Rocco let’s him get to 100 pitches most his starts. When they blew Lopez up In the 6th yesterday his pitch count was still fairly low (at the beginning the inning anyways). I don’t expect them to beat ober up too much and think he should get plenty of efficient outs.
 
Im torn on gray k’s and total outs, I’m playing both cause I think they both have merit on their own.

Jon gray ov 6.5 k’s +115
Ov 17.5 outs -130
 
I kinda like Bassitt outs but the juice just too high, I can’t say he a slam dunk and for me to play -190 I need them to be.
 
I did end up w handful of k props! Lol. Think the prices were right to take a little risk.

Williamson ov 4.5 k’s ev
Cabrera ov 7.5 +140
Jon grsy ov 6.5 +115
Kelly ov 5.5 ev

And of course the expensive one but think it a slam dunk

Valdez ov 5.5 -180
 
I didn’t play the nats but I sure was tempted. I might change my mind before if I go out again, lol. There just no way that line is based off reality of how both teams playing.
 
2daBank said:
Wonder what the logic is behind this odd start time in milw?
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You'll want to get home from work early on Friday if you don't want to miss any of the Milwaukee Brewers' game against the Cincinnati Reds. And even then, you'll need an extra subscription to watch it.

That's because the Brewers game is on much earlier than usual (4:10 p.m.) and it's not on Bally Sports Wisconsin. The Brewers-Reds game is on Apple TV+ as part of "Friday Night Baseball," a partnership between Major League Baseball and Apple.
 
Haven't read much into it but sounds like this could be a think on Fridays going forward this Summer and why not with no other sports to really compete with. Doesn't hurt my feelings to have an early start game, not like I'm going to watch any of them anyway.
 
KJ said:
Haven't read much into it but sounds like this could be a think on Fridays going forward this Summer and why not with no other sports to really compete with. Doesn't hurt my feelings to have an early start game, not like I'm going to watch any of them anyway.
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Baseball has gotta be run by the biggest group of morons. Does any other league actively go out there way to make games hard to watch? Lol. I really don’t give a shit either, not like I’m sitting around watching milw/cincy or hardly any other games for that matter, just seems pretty damn stupid to me.
 
2daBank said:
Baseball has gotta be run by the biggest group of morons. Does any other league actively go out there way to make games hard to watch? Lol. I really don’t give a shit either, not like I’m sitting around watching milw/cincy or hardly any other games for that matter, just seems pretty damn stupid to me.
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I didn't watch one Thursday night NFL game last season, no google tv for me and I don't want it. Now the ticket going to youtube, MLB is just trying to catch up to the NFL at this point with streaming.
 
KJ said:
I didn't watch one Thursday night NFL game last season, no google tv for me and I don't want it. Now the ticket going to youtube, MLB is just trying to catch up to the NFL at this point with streaming.
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Think it was on prime last year. I have it cause the wife orders so much shit from Amazon we have for the free shipping or whatever she told me makes it worth it, lol. They have some tv shows I watch but I think I only tuned in for like 1 maybe part of another thu game, I hate that garbage cash grab game and there no way I can sit thru a single nfl game without turning channel a bunch and just too much work to switch out of prime back over to Hulu or whatever. For most part I rather watch the thu college on espn anyways! Nfl can blow me!
 
2daBank said:
Think it was on prime last year. I have it cause the wife orders so much shit from Amazon we have for the free shipping or whatever she told me makes it worth it, lol. They have some tv shows I watch but I think I only tuned in for like 1 maybe part of another thu game, I hate that garbage cash grab game and there no way I can sit thru a single nfl game without turning channel a bunch and just too much work to switch out of prime back over to Hulu or whatever. For most part I rather watch the thu college on espn anyways! Nfl can blow me!
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I have Prime, that's right it's Amazon but I've never watched a thing on there. Only reason I have Peacock and Paramount Plus is for soccer, kinda the same for ESPN+ except they at least have golf and UFC as well.

Getting ridiculous, I don't care enough about most Thursday night NFL games to sit and watch one game on Amazon, google, apple, youtube, etc. Just phasing my interest in watching games out in general. All I've done the last couple years is Red Zone and assume it will be offered somehow through youtube this season.
 
What odd about Mlb doing the stupid ass Facebook, YouTube, or Apple steaming games is you can’t hardly find streaking services that carry the local fox sports, guess they in bed with cable companies. So I really just don’t watch much, not even cards games anymore, if they don’t wanna put on my platforms than fuck them. If there a game I’m really interested in I have a site that plays them all! Hardly use it tho. I’ll sometimes listen on radio, more than anything I like watching pitch tracker sites and charting pitches! I’m a dork, lol.
 
KJ said:
I have Prime, that's right it's Amazon but I've never watched a thing on there. Only reason I have Peacock and Paramount Plus is for soccer, kinda the same for ESPN+ except they at least have golf and UFC as well.

Getting ridiculous, I don't care enough about most Thursday night NFL games to sit and watch one game on Amazon, google, apple, youtube, etc. Just phasing my interest in watching games out in general. All I've done the last couple years is Red Zone and assume it will be offered somehow through youtube this season.
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Yea I’m pretty much the same, ever since I got away from having to work Saturdays I watch college football and have no interest making my whole weekend on couch watching games so nfl has lost out to ncaa for me, much more enjoyable to watch. I usually run errands and do things with the wife on Sunday’s!
 
I used fish in a parlay or 2. I think the price is justified here, I can’t see the a’s coming to Miami and faring real well with all the nasty stuff marlins pitchers throw, plus if you were a young kid on a loser 12 win team wouldn’t you party it up while in Miami? I would!!

Of course we gotta worry bout fish scoring runs but against this guy and bunch of oak pen I can’t see it being a big problem.
 
Damn, these pitcher props are moving all over the place today, has someone decided to start manipulating the market? Now josiah outs back down to 16.5, Cabrera k’s down to 6.5 which I think should be a fairly big bet seeing how I took a shot at 7.5 +140.
 
2daBank said:
I did end up w handful of k props! Lol. Think the prices were right to take a little risk.

Williamson ov 4.5 k’s ev
Cabrera ov 7.5 +140
Jon grsy ov 6.5 +115
Kelly ov 5.5 ev

And of course the expensive one but think it a slam dunk

Valdez ov 5.5 -180
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2daBank said:
The out totals just turned out to be

Ober ov 16.5
Jon gray ov 17.5


Fucked me on josiah gray number and Bassitt just got too expensive.
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Rolling with you on these, bro.
 
SIGO said:
Yes sir.
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Nice, lucky you: lol. I’m stuck w that Fuckinh 7.5. Hopefully he has one his better command games. The fact they lined him at 17.5 outs gave me some hope he go deeper today. He could punch 10 if he on.
 
Fucking reds d just let the kid down. Double play ball to end inning and they botch it. Now 2nd and 3rd 1 out. Unreal, even if he somehow gets out of it screws up the pitch count
 
4 down 1 to go, sucks they botched the DP and lost the lead but he did about as good he could. He not disappointing at all, he pitching as well I coulda hoped.
 
I love finding these young guys who havnt really done well yet in good spots! Kid is 6’6 with a couple nasty breaking pitches, good enough heater and appears a decent cutter. Def a big league mix, helps be facing a milw team who isn’t shy about chasing pitches! Be sweet if he faces the Phillies or Mets soon, both those lineups chasing a lot also! Lol
 
He only at 66 pitches thru 5! Woulda been under 60 and still have the lead if not for the botched double play.
 
It blows reds sitting the rookie who quickly turning into their best power hitter. I dunno how much I buy it but reds pen actually way up there in war.
 
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