CFL Syndicate 2022

Hulu said:
Ok @Teapot9 here you go...

0.5* Ottawa +13 -110

This is a ludicrous number for any preseason game which typically total in the high 30s, let alone one where Toronto is leaving half their starters home and Ottawa has a whole new offense that needs reps.

I doubt this number sticks around but I was prepared to take Ottawa at +7 or better so there's plenty of time to get bets in. This will be a full unit play if I can get more books that give me numbers.
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Zing! Always nice to start off the season with a win.
 
Also for reg season week 1...

1* EDM / BC over 46.5 -110

It will be interesting to see what happens to totals this year. in 2021 we had some historically low totals and for good reason as scoring was down about 4 points overall. I really think the lack of a preseason really slowed down the offenses to start the season. I also think that the shortage of quality offensive linemen had QBs on the run all year and the lack of quality kickers really hurt scoring also. Another interesting note...if you take Ottawa's horrid offense out of the stats, overall scoring was down only 2 points. I expect these things to be better overall this year. Additionally we now have major overreaction from the clueless leadership of the league in the form of a raft of rule changes designed to increase scoring and shorten the field. Already through 1 preseason game I can see how the closer hash marks will open up both sides of the field for the passing game and the new post-score starting field position makes the field really short.

I doubt we see the books adjust for all this and keep totals low for the first few weeks at least. All 4 week 1 totals would have been historically low in 2019. Its been a pretty safe bet taking early-season unders (about 58% following them blindly) for years in the CFL but I think we get a bit of a reversal here until the books adjust.

In this particular game we have the highest total of the week. I think we see a minor shootout in the dome with 2 defenses that have to prove themselves after making major changes. These two teams were the 2 highest scoring through the latter 2/3 of 2021 and I think they should be able to get over this number.
 
Me buying a new notebook for my handicapping at the $ store: "$1.25?? WTF??? I thought this was the fucking dollar store!! What is this world coming to??"

Me an hour later: I'll just drop 2 dimes on the Ottawa Redblacks. No biggie.
 
Hulu said:
A number of books have skipped preseason altogether and have posted week 1 lines already so I got down on this play since I doubt this number hangs around...

1* Ottawa +12 -110

Once again, this is for the Jun 10 match between Ottawa and Winnipeg, not the preseason where I also have a bet on Ottawa.

Thoughts later
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Grabbed another half unit on this at 11.5. Its steaming downward. I would play it all the way down to 10. Full bet now as follows...

1*/.5* Ottawa +12/+11.5 -110/-110
 
I know its only preseason but Bo Levi 3/10 for 37 yards and 2 picks. Game is not televised so I only have numbers to go by but those are not the numbers of a guy who is tuned up and ready.
 
All 4 overs for week 1 have gone up at least 2 points from open. Quite the opposite of previous years but the new rule changes are getting a lot of play right now.

Seeing some +9.5 on Ottawa but still some 10/10.5 available. This might be your last chance to get it at double digits.
 
Note(s)
Week 1 thru 4 last year saw a huge amount of unders and a lot of these game never even came close to getting over. The unders do very well early in most seasons. In my opinion its because the books put out middle of the season lines and the offenses aren't up to pace.

Last season after week 4 there were 15 completed games. out of those 15 games 17 of those teams scored fewer than 21 points . 8 of those scored less than 14 points.

Last season there was no preseason games, so I am certain that contributed to some of the scoring problems.

It took the lines maker a few weeks to adjust the totals to get some overs. week 1 thru week 4 the totals were 3 overs and 12 unders.


Week 1:
Overs
With the total lines starting low and already the overs lines are climbing the early season overs could start out hot.

Sides
Indicated plays on:
Als +3.5
Redblacks +9
Elks. +3.5
 
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spottie2935 said:
Note(s)
Week 1 thru 4 last year saw a huge amount of unders and a lot of these game never even came close to getting over. The unders do very well early in most seasons. In my opinion its because the books put out middle of the season lines and the offenses aren't up to pace.

Last season after week 4 there were 15 completed games. 17 of those games had a team with fewer than 21 points scored. 8 of those scored less than 14 points.

Last season there was no preseason games, so I am certain that contributed to some of the scoring problems.

It took the lines maker a few weeks to adjust the totals to get some overs. After week 4 the totals were 3 overs and 12 unders.


Week 1:
Overs
With the total lines starting low and already the overs lines are climbing the early season overs could start out hot.

Sides
Indicated plays on:
Als +3.5
Redblacks +9
Elks. +3.5
Click to expand...
Great thoughts. I also like the elks +3.5 but I’d like to see who wins their qb battle before I bet it. I would feel a lot better if it’s Nick Arbuckle but I feel like Chris jones might go with Taylor Cornelius.
 
I fixed a few errors i think it reads better. I like road dogs a lot early. Seems to be more of a balance in the league now. We will see
 
spottie2935 said:
I fixed a few errors i think it reads better. I like road dogs a lot early. Seems to be more of a balance in the league now. We will see
Click to expand...
Check out the rule changes this season that are meant to shorten the field and increase scoring. I think thats why the totals are all shooting upward out of the gate.
 
1* HAM / SSK over 44.5 -110

I think the Ticats could be a nice over team this year as their defense has taken a step back while their offense is as potent as ever. I think their OL will also be much better and give Dane Evans the time to pick apart defenses. Also, they appear to have finally found a solution at place kicker while the 3 punters they have in camp all look equally awful. I wish they would get away from these rugby style punters because for every 60 yard punt they let fly, they seem to shank another.

The hash marks being moved in will benefit teams with experienced QBs and creative offensive minds and I think we have a matchup of 2 teams that fit the bill here. Through 2 preseason games I've watched, experienced guys live Evans and Masoli were able to pick the defense apart in the seams. Speaking of defense, the big thing that changes with the new hash marks is that the WIL spot becomes more like the SAM now and teams without the right player to man that spot will suffer for it. Simoni Lawrence is my favorite player but I don't know that he has the skill set to evolve into what is needed in a WLB now. I feel like Fajardo might have a field day throwing to the weak side.
 
Notable injuries from camps:

Ottawa's dynamic slotback Justin Davis goes on the 6 game with an ankle injury

Hamilton's projected starting C Coulter Wodmansey goes on the 6 game. Starting LT Kyle Saxelid suffered a back injury in their 1st preseason game but is not on IR just yet. Waiting for an update on that one.

Winnipeg's projected starting SAM LB Mercy Maston suffered a ruptured achilles and is done for the year.
 
Hamilton also put NAT WR Lamar Durant on the 6 game. This leaves them with only 1 NAT receiver with experience on the roster. With their all NAT offensive line I think that’s ok though.

Sask has lost ratio-breaking LB Micah Teitz which is a big deal.

Sask also lost NAT OL Josiah St. John. They have enough starting quality OL to get by but they have no depth if they lose another starter.

Winnipeg CB Winston Rose was seen in a walking boot. The team brought back a DB that they just cut which could be an indication that Rose may miss some time.
 
Hulu said:
Also for reg season week 1...

1* EDM / BC over 46.5 -110

It will be interesting to see what happens to totals this year. in 2021 we had some historically low totals and for good reason as scoring was down about 4 points overall. I really think the lack of a preseason really slowed down the offenses to start the season. I also think that the shortage of quality offensive linemen had QBs on the run all year and the lack of quality kickers really hurt scoring also. Another interesting note...if you take Ottawa's horrid offense out of the stats, overall scoring was down only 2 points. I expect these things to be better overall this year. Additionally we now have major overreaction from the clueless leadership of the league in the form of a raft of rule changes designed to increase scoring and shorten the field. Already through 1 preseason game I can see how the closer hash marks will open up both sides of the field for the passing game and the new post-score starting field position makes the field really short.

I doubt we see the books adjust for all this and keep totals low for the first few weeks at least. All 4 week 1 totals would have been historically low in 2019. Its been a pretty safe bet taking early-season unders (about 58% following them blindly) for years in the CFL but I think we get a bit of a reversal here until the books adjust.

In this particular game we have the highest total of the week. I think we see a minor shootout in the dome with 2 defenses that have to prove themselves after making major changes. These two teams were the 2 highest scoring through the latter 2/3 of 2021 and I think they should be able to get over this number.
Click to expand...
Took a 47.5 right here. Like the reasoning a lot. Last year was weird, but as you said, lack of camp was big...
 
Its worth noting that 3/4 preseason games so far have gone over and the one that went under only did so by 2.5 pts.

Only one data point and its only preseason but I like where things are trending.
 
Of course the 75 cup in on youtube. Streaker can be seen at 28:27.

Seciurity was a little lax in those days. She managed to stay on the field in -20 temps for 4 or 5 mins until security finally noticed and hauled her off.

 
Ottawa has lost one of their big name free agent signings to an injury. DE Kwaku Boateng is likely gone for the season. He's a NAT so thats a huge loss.
 
The more I see of play with the new hash marks, the more convinced I am that experienced QBs will be able to pick apart defenses like never before. There is just so much space to take advantage of.

I think WLBs like Simoni Lawrence are going to become obsolete as the position is basically requires the same skill set as a SAm so you need a smaller, DB type manning it instead of a true linebacker.

Some of the most average QBs have been putting together long drives with wide open receivers in the preseason. Guys like Collaros, Fajardo, Bo, Masoli, Evans etc are going to have a field day.

I think you could hit all 4 overs in week one and go 3-1
 
Another note on the new has marks...

Through 5 preseason games theres been at least 2 pick sixes and another 2 that were dropped. Teams used to avoid the wide side because it is such a long throw and was ripe to be picked but now both sides are a long throw. I think we see an uptick in defensive scores.

Field goals also become easier as the angles are very close to NFL angles now. Theres still a lack of quality kickers but I see FG% going up this season.

Prediction: By the end of the reg season we are seeing avg totals in the 49-52 range
 
All 4 totals went up a couple of points today. Curious.

Did someone hit them hard or did a book learn about the rule changes and upped their totals causing a cascade?

Either way I like it.
 
So the fraudulant assholes at BetRegal tried to void the Ottawa +13 preseason winner 2 hours after it ended by saying it was a mistake. Enough people complained and tweeted the CFL that they backed off and re-graded it as a winner so as not to upend their sponsorship.

But what a bunch of frauds.

I will continue to bet their bad early lines and bleed them $50 at a time. Every withdrawal will taste extra sweet.
 
0.25* Toronto +1.5 -108

This is for tonight's preseason game. Only a quarter unit because that's the max. Lines are probably not widely available but if you have it, hit it.
 
BC made 3 big name free agent signings on the DL, now 2 of them appear to be gone.

Woody Barron (ex MTL) hasn't shown up for camp and is on the suspended list. Possible he could still play this year.

Stove Richardson (ex WPG) suffered a serious injury in the offseason which will keep him out for the year.

BC's defense would have been really, really good until this happened. Their LB and DB groups are solid as hell. But they can only hold up so long if the DL can't pressure.
 
All week 1 totals have steamed up by an avg of 4 pts each from open. With a week to go, I wouldn't be surprised if they keep heading that way as the rule changes get digested.

Theres one under I like if it rises another couple points.
 
Al's +3.5 and over 45


Last season Ottawa was the worst and Winnipeg was the best. As of right now I hold only the over 44.5. I will wait a week on these teams. I expect Ott to improve and Winnipeg to come back to earth. How far are these teams apart? My far betting on Ott is 21-17 with a late Peg TD and the +9 isnt enough.

Ticats Riders Over 44.5
2 seasons ago Ticats were the best.so them being a dog is nice. I think they should win. As of now only over

Elks+3.5 This is the only over that scares me. I have yet to take the total. New team is BC this season and Young QB. Mistakes may get the over but this is no longer the high power offense until they prove it to me. On the flip side Edmontons D last season was poor. Maybe as the season moves along the D should improve.
 
spottie2935 said:
Al's +3.5 and over 45


Last season Ottawa was the worst and Winnipeg was the best. As of right now I hold only the over 44.5. I will wait a week on these teams. I expect Ott to improve and Winnipeg to come back to earth. How far are these teams apart? My far betting on Ott is 21-17 with a late Peg TD and the +9 isnt enough.

Ticats Riders Over 44.5
2 seasons ago Ticats were the best.so them being a dog is nice. I think they should win. As of now only over

Elks+3.5 This is the only over that scares me. I have yet to take the total. New team is BC this season and Young QB. Mistakes may get the over but this is no longer the high power offense until they prove it to me. On the flip side Edmontons D last season was poor. Maybe as the season moves along the D should improve.
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Glad to see we're mostly on the same page to start the season.

I lean to the ALs +3.5 also but I have concerns about their quarterbacking which is keeping me off it.

Also lean Esks +3.5 just because I don't think BC has earned the right to be 3.5pt favs over anyone just yet. I would've made the line BC -2.
 
MTL@CAL -3.5
I think Calgary is still riding on their reputation but are really only a .500 team at best. That's why I took them under 9.5 RSW. Bo looked horrible in his brief preseason appearance and even though he says he is feeling 100% now, he has said that for the past 2 seasons but hasn't looked it. His receiving corps, although better than last year, is still really only average. They also have some questions about their offensive line. Their defence should be good but I don't think they deserve to be -3.5pt favs here. Once totals adjust upward more, they could be a solid under team.
The thing keeping me off Montreal is their quarterbacking situation. Vernon Adams Jr is set to be their starter but he didn't take the news that the team re-signed Trevor Harris well. VAJ looked set to break out last year when it was his team to lead. Then Harris comes along and is breathing down his neck. Harris clearly outplayed VAJ in the preseason and having your QB, head down on the bench with teammates consoling him is not a great look for your leader. I just can't trust a team with the 2 biggest headcases in the league at QB.

OTT@WPG -9.5
I hit Ottawa hard when it opened at +12/+12.5 and its a really simple handicap. Ottawa completely re-tooled in the offseason, signing 17 free agents including some of the biggest talents out there. Their OL has gone from bottom to top 3 IMO. Their receiving corps looks fantastic and their defense, which was already pretty good, got major upgrades in the secondary and DE. They also got the top free agent prize in Jeremiah Masoli. Fresh off a Grey Cup loss last season, he bring instant credibility to the offense which also now has one of his favourite receivers from LY, Jaelon Acklin. And who did Masoli lose the Grey Cup to? Yup, Winnipeg. Think he'll be up for this game? Now it will take some time for this team to come together but I was able to visit their training camp the week before last and the sense of optimism is palpable. This group is on fire and ready to get out there. They are probably only a .500 team but often in week 1 average teams don't know who they are yet and come out with full force. I think that happens here.
Winnipeg is still a good team although they suffered 3 major losses to the NFL on defense. Their OL is still in tact and while they lost 2 very good receivers, they signed one in Greg Ellingson who is maybe better than both. I am putting them at 12-6 this year and they will compete with Sask for the West all season.
If the +10.5 were to come back, I think thats worth a bet. at 9.5 the line is probably right.
 
HAM@SSK-1 47
I could really see this game going either way but Hamilton's abysmal record ATS at Sask means I could only bet this one way. They are something like 4-12 ATS there. So how about Sask? Well I think Fajardo is in line for a bounce back season after having an off year in 2021. He finally has a legitimate deep threat receiver in Duke Williams and with some improvement from an OL that was below avg LY, he should be in line for a 4000+yd season. Defensively they suffered some losses in the secondary and DL so I think they could go be an over team this year.
I also think Hamilton could be an over team with their offense looking potent and their defense having to retool the line. I think the new hash marks will give Simoni Lawrence fits trying to cover to the sideline. Their front 7 is getting older and they will struggle to get pressure.
I bet 1 unit on the over 44.5.

EDM@BC-3.5 48
I took the over 46.5. I like the over because these two teams look like the worst defenses in the league to my eyes.
BC tried to upgrade their DL in the offseason but then lost 2 of the 3 players they signed. Stove Richardson was their big free agent signing and he is gone for the year. Woody Barron has not reported to the team yet due to a personal matter. So they will start pretty much the same DL that couldn't get pressure last year. Their back eight are world class with all stars all over the place but they can only cover for so long. If the Lions can't find ways to get pressure, they will give up a lot of points. Offensively, I really like what I've seen out of Nathan Rourke. He looks to have all the tools to be a star. He's young and the mistakes will come but I think he could be something special. He is surrounded by speedy weapons and great hands. Probably the best receiving group in the league.
Edmonton figures to be the worst team in the league this year. At least on paper anyway. They have major weaknesses at OL, DL and secondary and their starting QB, Nick Arbuckle has yet to really prove himself. They just signed a DB and traded for another so they are obviously not happy with the look of the secondary and thats a scary thing 6 days away from your first game. I know Chris Jones is a winner but this looks like a rebuilding year for this team.
 
After going through rosters after cut down day I want to add one more future in addition to my Calgary u9.5 and Sask over 9.5 RSW bets.

0.25* Hamilton under 10.5 RSW
Even though this team went to the cup LY they were still only 1 game above .500 and I don't really see that they've made any improvements anywhere on the roster. They lost a few key players and are really counting on current players to step up into those roles. They've kept their core together but its a core that's getting older. I think this is a 9-9 or 10-8 year for them.
 
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