CFL Syndicate 2021

Cats look to have Bralon Addison back for Sunday. With the emergence of Tim White and Steven Dunbar, they suddenly have a very good receiving corps again. Assuming they have Don Jackson in the lineup, this is once again a potent offense. That's assuming Masoli shows up of course.

Sask receiver Ricardo Louis is out for the rest of the season.
 
48 hours to kickoff and still no lines from the major books. Come on you fucks...its only 2 games!

I'm starting to think the CFL isn't their highest priority
 
Line moving towards Sask which I should have anticipated. Lines have moved their direction all year. Must be that rabid fan base now that the combines are put away for the winter.
 
Hamilton weather for tomorrow...

Sun, 28 NovCloudy. 40 percent chance of flurries in the morning. Periods of snow beginning in the morning except periods of rain near Lake Ontario late in the morning and in the afternoon. Risk of freezing drizzle in the morning. Amount 2 to 4 cm except locally 5 cm over higher terrain. Wind up to 15 km/h. High plus 1. Wind chill minus 4 in the morning.
NightCloudy periods with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 4.

The stadium is not far from the lake so its gonna likely be rain or freezing rain.
 
Regina weather...

Sun, 28 NovA mix of sun and cloud. Wind southeast 30 km/h. High plus 5. Wind chill minus 21 in the morning. UV index 1 or low.

Plenty of wind although Mosaic stadium seems to block out a lot of it
 
10:27 PM EST Saturday 27 November 2021
Weather advisory in effect for:

City of Hamilton

Winter weather travel advisory in effect.

The first band of snow is forecast to move across the area this evening and persist through early Sunday morning. Snowfall accumulations of 2 cm can be expected by the time the snow tapers off early Sunday morning.

After a short break another swath of snow is expected Sunday morning persisting through to Sunday evening. An additional 3 to 6 cm of snow is expected. It is possible however, that communities over higher terrain, could see locally higher snowfall amounts.
 
Hulu said:
10:27 PM EST Saturday 27 November 2021
Weather advisory in effect for:

City of Hamilton

Winter weather travel advisory in effect.

The first band of snow is forecast to move across the area this evening and persist through early Sunday morning. Snowfall accumulations of 2 cm can be expected by the time the snow tapers off early Sunday morning.

After a short break another swath of snow is expected Sunday morning persisting through to Sunday evening. An additional 3 to 6 cm of snow is expected. It is possible however, that communities over higher terrain, could see locally higher snowfall amounts.
Click to expand...
Helps the ticats I think
 
Look aheads opened for the finals. Sask was +10 but it moved quick. I managed to get a small max bet in at +7.5 but its now down to +6.5.

Toronto opened at +2 which is crazy but before I could nail it the line moved to -1 which is still probably a value but I am not betting against Hamilton.
 
Still trying to decide what to do in the east final. The play is clear...Toronto.

OTOH maybe its the homer in me talking but I feel like Hamilton could get the better of them.

Argos won 3/4 meetings this year although you could argue that Cats could've won the game where Dane Evans was knocked out and they had to finish with David Watford and lost on a missed xp at the end of regulation.
 
And of course right after I make that bet Toronto has 4 players in quarantine. Game is off the board in some places, in others it has moved to +1.5/+110.

I am grabbing another half unit at +110 because this was only a protocol violation and even though those guys will miss a prcatice, they will still be allowed to attend meetings and film sessions remotely so I don't see it as a big deal. They'll be playing as long as they pass their 2 tests which they almost certainly will.

Full bet now as follows...

1.5* Toronto pk -101
 
1* SSK / WPG under 45.5 -111

I made this one 44.5 so I wasn't prepared to play it until I saw the forecast for significant winds tomorrow. 30km/h gusting to 50 to start and only increasing as the afternoon goes on. Gusts of 70km/h possible.
 
Results after playoffs...

Sides 22-14 +0.715*
Totals 19-11 +5.965*
Live/2H 14-12 +0.14*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-4 -0.475*

Overall 58-43 +6.03*

Advantage over Close
Sides +46 or 1.3ppg
Totals +14.5 or 0.5ppg
 
Ok here's what I have down for the cup...these are homer bets so I can't recommend following.

0.25* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +620 - taken Sept 24th

0.125* Hamilton +5.5 -108 - taken shortly after open...max bet
0.125* Hamilton ML +188 - taken shortly after open...max bet

0.5* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +180 - Bodog futures, still available

0.5* WPG / HAM 1H under 21.5 -115
 
Hulu said:
Ok here's what I have down for the cup...these are homer bets so I can't recommend following.

0.25* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +620 - taken Sept 24th

0.125* Hamilton +5.5 -108 - taken shortly after open...max bet
0.125* Hamilton ML +188 - taken shortly after open...max bet

0.5* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +180 - Bodog futures, still available

0.5* WPG / HAM 1H under 21.5 -115
Click to expand...
I got Peg -3 at one deli, my local doesn’t have it up yet
 
Some $50 prop bets for fun.

Rasheed Bailey over 3.5 receptions -120
Andrew Harris under 94.5 rushing yards -120
Simoni Lawrence over 4.5 tackles -120

If I can get more down on the Simoni prop later in the week I'll take it. That looks like an easy winner.
 
Finding more places with props open now...

0.25* Andrew Harris under 100.5 rush yards -120
0.25* Brandon Banks more receiving yards than Kenny Lawler -120

Cats defence can stop the run. Just look what they did vs Stanback this season. No way Harris has a 100yd game vs Simoni and co.

I think this is Banks last hurrah and he is ready to leave it all on the field after getting hurt in the big game last year. He's been there a few times but never won it. Also, he's more of a deep route guy than Lawler is so I think this is a good way to get at it. His reception and yards numbers are pretty juiced.
 
0.25* Don Jackson under 65.5 rush yds -120

With Ted Laurent's appendectomy, they will have to do some ratio shuffling and Jackson will almost certainly play fewer snaps as a result.
 
0.25* Prop Collaros +48.5 passing yards vs Aaron Rodgers -130

The 2 QBs numbers are only 15 yards apart so getting 48.5 is obvious value. I think its inflated to suck in the squares who will assume that the celebrity QB will obviously pass for far more.
 
Hulu said:
Ok here's what I have down for the cup...these are homer bets so I can't recommend following.

0.25* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +620 - taken Sept 24th

0.125* Hamilton +5.5 -108 - taken shortly after open...max bet
0.125* Hamilton ML +188 - taken shortly after open...max bet

0.5* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +180 - Bodog futures, still available

0.5* WPG / HAM 1H under 21.5 -115
Click to expand...

Ok the number has moved enough that hedging makes sense, especially considering, when I take my homer glasses off, that Winnipeg is still the better team by some margin.

0.75* Winnipeg -1 -105

A 1pt WPG win will screw me but I'll take that chance.
 
2021 Final Results...

Sides 23-15 +1.215*
Totals 20-11 +6.965*
Live/2H 14-12 +0.14*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Props 4-5 -0.80*
Futures 0-4-1 -3.015*

Overall 62-49 +4.19* 55.8%

Advantage over Close
Sides +47 or 1.2ppg
Totals +14.5 or 0.5ppg

A bit of a disappointment this year from a capping standpoint. It was a difficult year with 2 years worth of retirements, 2 rookie classes coming in and just a whole lot of change. And we had 36 fewer games than we normally would so less opportunity. Sides and totals worked well hitting 62% but losing my biggest bet since 2015 was a 10 unit swing. The spot was good but I got too involved. Anyway the winning streak since 2011 continues even if the units weren't quite there.

We'll do it all again in 2022.
 
And thanks to everyone who chimed in this year. More opinions make us all better cappers. That's why we call it the syndicate.
 
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