CFL Syndicate 2021
- Thread starter Hulu
- Start date
Hulu
#3DownNation
Continuing to shoot myself in the foot...I'll tally up the record later.
For week 14...
1* Hamilton -6.5 -110
I see 2 teams headed in opposite directions here. BC on their 3rd straight road game and saw their playoff chances take a serious blow last week losing in OT to the Argos. I think that was the back breaker and I'm not sure they get up for this game at all. Meanwhile Hamilton seems to have their OL at least somewhat solidified with Van Zeyl returning from injury and Vornkahl installed at LT. The defense is already good and the offense is starting to find its form.
For week 14...
1* Hamilton -6.5 -110
I see 2 teams headed in opposite directions here. BC on their 3rd straight road game and saw their playoff chances take a serious blow last week losing in OT to the Argos. I think that was the back breaker and I'm not sure they get up for this game at all. Meanwhile Hamilton seems to have their OL at least somewhat solidified with Van Zeyl returning from injury and Vornkahl installed at LT. The defense is already good and the offense is starting to find its form.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Ya, big letdown expected after the argos loss
We've been saying hamilton would surge later since august and I think it's coming now
Reilly in the 2nd half last week is stuck in my mind too, hes never really struggled in weather, so i wonder if he picked up a knock
Hulu
#3DownNation
1* Saskatchewan -6 -110
How can any team not named Ottawa be less than a TD favourite against Edmonton? The Elks have no home field advantage and have lost something like 9 straight there. The organization is in disarray and I don't see any reason for them to be competitive here. I doubt Nick Arbuckle is ready to start and even if he does he won't be able to do much behind this shitty line and with so little time to learn the offense system (assuming there is one). If its Cornelius, he's shown occassional flashes of competence but not enough of them to string together a win. Anything under a TD here is money IMO
How can any team not named Ottawa be less than a TD favourite against Edmonton? The Elks have no home field advantage and have lost something like 9 straight there. The organization is in disarray and I don't see any reason for them to be competitive here. I doubt Nick Arbuckle is ready to start and even if he does he won't be able to do much behind this shitty line and with so little time to learn the offense system (assuming there is one). If its Cornelius, he's shown occassional flashes of competence but not enough of them to string together a win. Anything under a TD here is money IMO
Hulu
#3DownNation
Thats an interesting point. I was thinking the over looked interesting in Hamilton but you are right about Reilly just looking off in the 2H, at least until the tying drive.
If he's right, BC can score and Hamilton's offense is finding its way. 43.5 could be a really low total for this matchup.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I'm a sucker for punishment...
1* Montreal +12.5 -110
If I was willing to take Edmonton +14 (and win) @ Winnipeg, I should be willing to take Montreal at this number. And we have 2 teams with differing levels of motivation. Winnipeg has already wrapped up first in the west so they are playing out the string. Meanwhile Montreal is in the think of the east race and could finish anywhere from first to third. Hard to imaging Winnipeg finding max motivation to destroy anyone here.
1* Montreal +12.5 -110
If I was willing to take Edmonton +14 (and win) @ Winnipeg, I should be willing to take Montreal at this number. And we have 2 teams with differing levels of motivation. Winnipeg has already wrapped up first in the west so they are playing out the string. Meanwhile Montreal is in the think of the east race and could finish anywhere from first to third. Hard to imaging Winnipeg finding max motivation to destroy anyone here.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results after week 13
Sides 17-11 +1.03*
Totals 16-9 +5.115*
Live/2H 9-11 -2.785*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-3 -0.175*
Overall 45-37 +2.87*
Advantage over Close
Sides +37 or 1.3ppg
Totals +18 or 0.7ppg
2-3 on the week. Continuing to shoot myself with live bets.
Only 3 weeks to go in the regular season.
Sides 17-11 +1.03*
Totals 16-9 +5.115*
Live/2H 9-11 -2.785*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-3 -0.175*
Overall 45-37 +2.87*
Advantage over Close
Sides +37 or 1.3ppg
Totals +18 or 0.7ppg
2-3 on the week. Continuing to shoot myself with live bets.
Only 3 weeks to go in the regular season.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Adding to this. Full bet now as follows...
1*/.5* Saskatchewan -6 / -6.5 -110
Derel Walker, Greg Ellingson & James Wilder Jr. out for Elks vs. Riders - 3DownNation
The Edmonton Elks will be without arguably their three most dangerous offensive weapons when they host the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Friday night. Wide receiver Derel Walker (hip/groin), slotback Greg Ellingson (hip), and running back James Wilder Jr. (ankle) were all placed on the one-game...
3downnation.com
Hulu
#3DownNation
1* Hamilton pk -110
Homer pick alert. Battle for first place in the east here and a smoother ride to the cup for the winner. Nothing special to handicap, I just think Hamilton is getting healthy and playing better football than Toronto who is dinged up. I'll be there rooting for my boys.
1* Calgary -2.5 -110
Although BC is mathematically alive, the last 2 losses broke their spirit and now they have to face a playoff-bound Stamps team off a bye. The stamps have made a statement by bringing back recent NFL cuts Tre Roberson (Bengals) and Reggie Begelton (Packers) and that statement is 'we ant to win it all this year. I think the team responds to this and beats up on BC. I made it 4.5.
Homer pick alert. Battle for first place in the east here and a smoother ride to the cup for the winner. Nothing special to handicap, I just think Hamilton is getting healthy and playing better football than Toronto who is dinged up. I'll be there rooting for my boys.
1* Calgary -2.5 -110
Although BC is mathematically alive, the last 2 losses broke their spirit and now they have to face a playoff-bound Stamps team off a bye. The stamps have made a statement by bringing back recent NFL cuts Tre Roberson (Bengals) and Reggie Begelton (Packers) and that statement is 'we ant to win it all this year. I think the team responds to this and beats up on BC. I made it 4.5.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I am about 30 mins from the stadium right now and with 3 hours to go the wind is very gusty and some light rain is falling horizontally. I thought the total was about right before but with this weather, I am thinking we could have another 20-17 game on our hands.
0.5* HAM / TOR under 45 -105
0.5* HAM / TOR under 45 -105
Hulu
#3DownNation
Upgrading this to full unit. It’s windy AF here
Hulu
#3DownNation
1* Hamilton -4.5 -110
The only game this week that has any playoff implications as Hamilton needs it to finish second and get a home playoff date. Sask is locked into second in the west and has nothing to play for. I think this is a comfortable win for the tabbies who need this due to them shitting the bed last week vs Toronto.
The only game this week that has any playoff implications as Hamilton needs it to finish second and get a home playoff date. Sask is locked into second in the west and has nothing to play for. I think this is a comfortable win for the tabbies who need this due to them shitting the bed last week vs Toronto.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I'll take a shot with this one as well.
1* EDM / BC under 48.5 -110
This game reminds me of Monty Python's 80s album "Contractual Obligation' where both teams are only here to fulfill their contract. Edmonton is playing 2 games 3 days apart due to a covid rescheduling earlier in the year and they are doing it for nothing more than the paycheck. Nathan Rourke is going to start for BC but I don't think he's going to lead the type of high-flying offense that Reilly is capable of. This looks like a 23-20 snore fest.
1* EDM / BC under 48.5 -110
This game reminds me of Monty Python's 80s album "Contractual Obligation' where both teams are only here to fulfill their contract. Edmonton is playing 2 games 3 days apart due to a covid rescheduling earlier in the year and they are doing it for nothing more than the paycheck. Nathan Rourke is going to start for BC but I don't think he's going to lead the type of high-flying offense that Reilly is capable of. This looks like a 23-20 snore fest.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Its official...I'm crazy. I think Toronto's OL is getting blown up and the only k/p they brought into the game sucks so bad they're afraid to attempt a FG. The game clearly means a little more to the Elks and Cornelius is marginally better than Pipkin it appears.
0.5* Live Edmonton 2H +0.5 +100
0.5* Live Edmonton 2H +0.5 +100
Hulu
#3DownNation
Adding another half unit @ -0.5. I like the contrast in what both coaches said in their halftime interviews
Thatta boy!
Hulu
#3DownNation
No longer endorsing this one.
With Ottawa upsetting the ALs, this is no longer a must win game for the cats who now have second place locked up. I was hoping to buy off but the number crashed when it came back up so I'm stuck with this bet.
Fucking Alouettes had the game won until they gave up 2 fumbles by a backup RB that led to Ottawa TDs. Thats why you don't rest players in a must win game.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Edmonton's defense is so tired they are making Rourke look like a hero. Tons of time and wide open receivers everywhere. I was right that Edmonton is just playing it out but I was wrong about Rourke having a conservative gameplan. They are letting him air it out and he's going for it.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results after week 16
Sides 21-13 +2.83*
Totals 18-11 +4.965*
Live/2H 13-12 -0.86*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-4 -0.475*
Overall 55-42 +6.145*
Advantage over Close
Sides +44.5 or 1.3ppg
Totals +12 or 0.4ppg
5-1 on the week. Nice way to finish off the regular season. Bring on the playoffs...
Sides 21-13 +2.83*
Totals 18-11 +4.965*
Live/2H 13-12 -0.86*
Tease/Parlay 1-2 -0.315*
Player Props 2-4 -0.475*
Overall 55-42 +6.145*
Advantage over Close
Sides +44.5 or 1.3ppg
Totals +12 or 0.4ppg
5-1 on the week. Nice way to finish off the regular season. Bring on the playoffs...
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Great work this year as always
Cant wait for next week
Getting over a point a game over close is incredible
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
When do you think we see lines?
Hulu
#3DownNation
Thanks. I appreciate the input all year.
Kinda killed my units with that 5* bet against David Watford but I would make it again.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I would hope no later than Tuesday.
I make Hamilton -4.5 but I have a suspicion that it could open at 3 or better. Anything under 3 and I'll hammer it.
I think Calgary can beat the Riders in Regina. They will be a good bet as a short dog. Anything over 3 would be a gift.
Probably no value in the totals. Both look like under games but these numbers will be low. 43/44 range
Hulu
#3DownNation
Semi-final look ahead lines out...
MTL @ HAM -3.5 47.5
CAL @ SSK -1.5 41.5
I took a tiny max bet on the under in Hamilton. I doubt the major books open with a number that high.
Otherwise the sides are sharper than I had figured. But these look aheads have been sharper than the major books openers all year so we'll see what we get from Pinny etc.
MTL @ HAM -3.5 47.5
CAL @ SSK -1.5 41.5
I took a tiny max bet on the under in Hamilton. I doubt the major books open with a number that high.
Otherwise the sides are sharper than I had figured. But these look aheads have been sharper than the major books openers all year so we'll see what we get from Pinny etc.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Current Grey Cup odds
WPG -120
TOR +525
HAM +585
SSK +720
CAL +825
MTL +1095
Any reason why I shouldn't hit WPG -120 right now? They have a one game path to the cup and they are just so far ahead of anyone else right now. The only thing I don't like is that they are in the same position as Hamilton was in 2019...largely unchallenged all year and haven't played a meaningful game in weeks. Thats a recipe for getting trucked by someone while you're looking in the mirror...just like Hamilton in 2019.
The way I see it, Calgary and Hamilton are the only teams that have a chance to beat Winnipeg and its a slim chance for both. They would have to play mistake-free in a way that they haven't all year. And are O'Shea's teams ever caught napping?
Have to sleep on it but the Bombers look mighty tempting at that number.
WPG -120
TOR +525
HAM +585
SSK +720
CAL +825
MTL +1095
Any reason why I shouldn't hit WPG -120 right now? They have a one game path to the cup and they are just so far ahead of anyone else right now. The only thing I don't like is that they are in the same position as Hamilton was in 2019...largely unchallenged all year and haven't played a meaningful game in weeks. Thats a recipe for getting trucked by someone while you're looking in the mirror...just like Hamilton in 2019.
The way I see it, Calgary and Hamilton are the only teams that have a chance to beat Winnipeg and its a slim chance for both. They would have to play mistake-free in a way that they haven't all year. And are O'Shea's teams ever caught napping?
Have to sleep on it but the Bombers look mighty tempting at that number.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Calgary is what kinda scares me, just feel like I've seen this before with them
I do think winnipeg is far and away the best team, but if Calgary beats sasky I kinda like the stamps at the right number, at least to keep it close
Hulu
#3DownNation
100% agree. The stamps have the key pieces in the right places to compete and adding Tre Roberson and Reggie Begelton down the stretch shows they are gunning for another cup. They came up short on a long FG that would've beaten WPG in WPG earlier this year. If they put it all together at the right time, they def have a shot.
Similar threads
