CFL Syndicate 2021

guaranteeed said:
I dont know how ticats move the ball at all if its watford, he was missing everything, and career numbers hes below 50% I think? In the cfl that's just unacceptable, that means you're 2 and out way too often. I have to think line gets to Calgary-3 pretty quick if its watford

Which makes me expect masoli, who if healthy gives best chance behind that line too, still heavy lean stamps
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I'm thinking 80/20 its Masoli. I think Steinauer is being coy about it to throw off the stamps preparations.

Watford is not a pro-level QB at all and was ever only utilized in short yardage because of his big frame.
 
Ottawa is so historically bad this year it looks like, everyone who just played them probably gets a few point boost they dont deserve

If this game was last week instead, I think its 3 or 4 points the Als way

I do wonder what factor no khari jones means tho, I am pretty sure hes the play caller isnt he?
 
guaranteeed said:
Ottawa is so historically bad this year it looks like, everyone who just played them probably gets a few point boost they dont deserve

If this game was last week instead, I think its 3 or 4 points the Als way

I do wonder what factor no khari jones means tho, I am pretty sure hes the play caller isnt he?
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Yeah good point, I forgot about that. He is their play caller and the article I read today said that they were still considering how to handle it. They want to have him in direct contact with the booth from home. I don't think he'll be calling plays but he'll be involved in some capacity.

Also consider that VAj is a bit of a head case and I think working with a former QB like Khari with his calm demeanor has really helped keep him on the level. Will he be affected by not having his own personal QB whisperer on the sideline? Will he come out with a win one for the gipper mentanitly? I have no idea.
 
Notice anything about the start times this week? On both nights, the games are only 2:45 apart instead of the customary 3 hours. This happened for the first time in 2019 and 3 times in total that year. This year it is slated to happen 5 times in a shortened season.

My theory: TSN has a lot of clout with the CFL and get a lot of favours. For instance, for several years teams have provided a separate, "real" depth chart that only TSN sees and it different than the one released publicly. They have input on the schedule and start times as well. We also know that TSN has been pushing for years to keep games under 2:50 and I think this type of scheduling is going to be the norm in 2-3 years time. What I am wondering is if the game is changing to accommodate? The officials have a fair bit leeway as to when they whistle time in to start the clock and could, conceivably speed up the game if the league directed. Since we have 3 examples from 2019, it would be good to look up the plays per game for those 3 and see if they were lower than the league and team averages. Its a very small sample size but its a start.

My problem: I cannot find which three games in 2019 were 2:45 apart. I know it happened 3 times but I cannot remember or find which games those were. All the 2019 schedules I can find online all show 3 hours apart which is not correct. If anyone has a way to find those 3 games, please share. Regardless, I will be charting the ppg of the 5 instances this season to see if a pattern emerges.
 
Lines are out for the 2 Saturday games. Nothing on the Friday games until the QB situations there are straightened out.

1.5* BC / MTL over 48 -110
 
Otherwise, Montreal opened at -4 when the early line had them at +1.5 which is surprising and honestly has me thinking BC might be a good bet at that number.

In the other game Winnipeg is a 4pt fav at Edmonton which is about right IMO with a total of 45 which might be a tad high.
 
1* BC Lions +4 -110

I really thought I'd be on Montreal in this game but I view these teams as fairly similar level and I have to take this many points with the Lions. I already have small bets on the early MTL +1.5 and ML +104 so a small middle would be nice.
 
Ahh so a big book releasing lines on the Saturday games prompted the books with the early lines to drop their limits. Masoli didn't take a single snap at yesterday's practice and they are going to be sorry if David Watford starts...

.5*/.5* Calgary +2/ML -110/+118
 
Last one...

1* WPG / EDM under 45 -110

Never thought I'd find myself taking an under 45 but it is what it is. Of all the teams this year these 2 and Ottawa look like the most solid under teams. Winnipeg is as solid as it gets playing lights out defense and working the field position game and running the clock and this week they could be without either Darvin Adams or Nick Demski. Meanwhile Edmonton's offense has yet to get going while their defense has also been lights out. Their only weakness was at SAM but they have now plugged that hole with Derek Moncrief, a late cut of the Rams and former CFL all star.

Toronto laid out the blueprint of how to beat Winnipeg a few weeks back. Run, run and run some more because they are vulnerable to it. I see the Elks trying to mimick the Bombers style here and relyinh on Wilder jr and working the clock. I made the number 42.5 and the early lines had it at 38.5 and 41.5 so I think we are getting a deal here at 45. At a total of 45, these 2 teams wouldve combined for 9-2 to the under so far this season.
 
Hulu said:
Yeah good point, I forgot about that. He is their play caller and the article I read today said that they were still considering how to handle it. They want to have him in direct contact with the booth from home. I don't think he'll be calling plays but he'll be involved in some capacity.
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Regarding this...apparently there won't be any communication from Khari during the game. There is a CFL bylaw that prevents teams from communicating with anyone outside the stadium during a game. Makes sense.
 
For anyone who likes middles, you can get MTL pk -115 and BC +4 -110 right now.

This year has been so crazy
 
Thats 2.5 units on Calgary now split between side and moneyline. I may add the under if the major books open at a better number than the 43.5 I have available now.
 
This might be the craziest week I can remember in a long time. I am unloading the bankroll here.

Trevor Harris is out for the Elks and the line only moves 2 points?!?!?!? Cornelius was awful in the xfl and he's been in the CFL for all of 8 weeks and has only run short yardage plays. He's only in Edmonton because of the connection with Elizondo who was Tampa's OC in the xfl. Behind this bad OL against the best defensive front in the league? This line should be at least 10 if not 13.

1.5* Winnipeg -6.5 -107

Also adding to the under which I had previously bet. Now as follows...

1.5* WPG / EDM under 45 -110
 
And the major booked opened Calgary at +2.5 even with Watford starting. I would make this line -3.5.

Its insanity. If there is ever a week to unload the ol bankroll on the CFL, this is it!!
 
All week 7 bets in one post including new adds on Calgary...

1.5* BC / MTL over 48 -110
1* BC Lions +4 -110

1.75*/.5*/.75* Calgary +2.5/+2/+1.5 -110 - 3 units on Calgary ATS
.75*/.5* Calgary ML +108/+118 - 1.25 units on the ML

1.5* WPG / EDM under 45 -110
1.5* Winnipeg -6.5 -107

I still like the over in Sask but with so much money in play this week, I think I'll skip it for now.
 
Hulu said:
And the major booked opened Calgary at +2.5 even with Watford starting. I would make this line -3.5.

Its insanity. If there is ever a week to unload the ol bankroll on the CFL, this is it!!
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Ya I would take Calgary up to 6 I think

I'm all over the moneyline which is still there at +120
 
Also I tried looking for anything on the game times from a few years ago that had the game start 2:45 after it and it's like the cfl is hiding the times

Impossible to see
 
guaranteeed said:
Also I tried looking for anything on the game times from a few years ago that had the game start 2:45 after it and it's like the cfl is hiding the times

Impossible to see
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Yeah I found the same thing. Every double header in 2019 are listed 3 hours apart and yet I know for certain it happened 3 times. I didn't think much of it at first but then I noticed that when it happened, the game play didn't overlap at all which I thought was a coincidence. Which then led me to wonder if it wasn't a coincidence. If I can find my old CFL notebook, I always write the times in there.

Anyway we have 5 instances of it this season and I can cross reference that vs plays per game to see if there are fewer. I think that would be the best way to tell if they are speeding games up.
 
OK even though I'm basically all-in on the ol' loop this week, I have to add this because its still the right play for a number of reasons.

1* TOR / SSK over 44 -108

A number of reason as discussed earlier, Sask's defensive injuries as well as Toronto's DL. But I also had a look at some good data of throw progressions over the first few weeks from both Arbuckle and Fajardo. They show that both QB's are going downfield more and more as we get into the season.
 
Calgary was down to +1 or +1.5 at most books overnight but it has now come back to 2 or 2.5.

Am I missing something here or are there just that many squares that don't know Watford is getting the start?
 
Friday Night Lights
Calgary under 43.5 (W)
Saskatchewan under 44 (L)
Saskatchewan-175 (W)

Saturday
BC +3 (130) (W)
BC under 48.5 (W)
Edmonton +7 (115) (L)
Edmonton under 44.5 (L)

YTD: 25-18 (59%)
 
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Hamilton has averaged less than 15 points scored in 4 road games this season. With a big line and even though Ottawa i so crappy I will be on this dog.

Dogs 1-3 last week so this could be a bounce back week for them dogs
 
spottie2935 said:
Hamilton has averaged less than 15 points scored in 4 road games this season. With a big line and even though Ottawa i so crappy I will be on this dog.

Dogs 1-3 last week so this could be a bounce back week for them dogs
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Yup. This is the perfect spot for Ottawa to finally compete. Off a bye and against a Hamilton team down to their 3rd string QB playing on 4 days rest with travel. I am curious to see what number we get after Hamilton's surprising win last week. +7 would be a gift but not out of the question.

I will be holding my nose with you.
 
Results after week 7

Sides 12-6 +3.06*
Totals 10-6 +2.43*
Live/2H 5-5 -0.735*
Tease/Parlay 0-2 -1.50*
Player Props 1-2 -0.375*

Overall 28-21 +2.88*

Advantage over Close
Sides +23
Totals +9.5

4-4 on the week but lost my biggest play since 2015 so decimated my bankroll. Back to work.
 
1* Ottawa +9.5 -109

Although the cats did a masterful job of hiding David Watford's weakness as a passer last week, a few things became apparent. They are deathly afraid to let him throw anything over 10 yards for one. The one long ball he threw was badly underthrown and nearly intercepted. They were able to catch Calgary unprepared to handle that kind of offense. That won't happen this week as Ottawa has had plenty of time to get ready to face Watford and they still have a decent defense and a good DC in Mike Benevedes who has been around the league for a long time. I'm betting they do a little better than Calgary keeping Watford in check. The cats defense will keep this one close and low scoring and I think they win it but I also think it will stay within a TD.

This could be a 14-12 laugher so I lean under as well but feel more comfortable with the side.
 
Hulu said:
1* Ottawa +9.5 -109

Although the cats did a masterful job of hiding David Watford's weakness as a passer last week, a few things became apparent. They are deathly afraid to let him throw anything over 10 yards for one. The one long ball he threw was badly underthrown and nearly intercepted. They were able to catch Calgary unprepared to handle that kind of offense. That won't happen this week as Ottawa has had plenty of time to get ready to face Watford and they still have a decent defense and a good DC in Mike Benevedes who has been around the league for a long time. I'm betting they do a little better than Calgary keeping Watford in check. The cats defense will keep this one close and low scoring and I think they win it but I also think it will stay within a TD.

This could be a 14-12 laugher so I lean under as well but feel more comfortable with the side.
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Got 9

Let's go
 
B.A.R. said:
I'd say less wild version, definitely has moments though.

He was carrying the CFL flag all weekend though. You were mentioned often.
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Nice. Wish I couldve been there. It would have been a fun weekend for sure.

Next time I am in for sure
 
1* HAM / OTT under 44 -110

0.25* Prop Hamilton QBs under 255.5 yards -120 - If I can get more down on this later I will

Already leaned under and now I see 2 pieces of info that made me pull the trigger. First, Ottawa's OL, already near the bottom of the league, is being reshuffled again due to 2 injuries, its a mess and Hamilton's DL should be in the backfield all night. Secondly, there is a heavy rainfall warning in effect tonight for Ottawa which should slow things down
 
Other lines are out now. Don't see anything I like off the top.

MTL @ TOR -2 49
SSK @ BC +1.5 48.5
 
Hulu said:
0.25* Prop Hamilton QBs under 255.5 yards -120 - If I can get more down on this later I will
Click to expand...

Got another quarter unit down at a worse number but still like it. Full bet now as follows...

.25/.25 Prop Hamilton QBs under 255.5/245.5 yards -120/-130
 
Hulu said:
Got another quarter unit down at a worse number but still like it. Full bet now as follows...

.25/.25 Prop Hamilton QBs under 255.5/245.5 yards -120/-130
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What’s the name of the penalty that’s like personal foul in NFL?

Something like “conduct offensive to the game” or something like that? I was trying to tell @cubsker while using my Canadian accent
 
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