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2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst Discussion

Not a ton of value in SS now at 3-1 or below, but I feel like he's a must for any bonus/promo bet you can get. Much better to get 4 days of action on world #1 at +300 for say a $100 free play, vs. betting a -125 baseball fav and getting $80 back.
 
SS -300 top 10 to me looks like a great parlay option until play starts.

Morikawa top 10 (ties paid) +150 looks solid to me. This will likely go down by tourney start.
 
Gandolf said:
Yang punctured the cloak of invincibility.
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Yep, and a few months later on Turkey Day the rest unraveled.

That PGA was something else. I'm sure most of us watched that day thinking it was a foregone conclusion.

Hazeltine produced Rich Beem and YE Yang as PGA winners.
 
Gandolf said:
Yeah I think the majors like to crown the best players. When you get back to back unknowns winning it raises eyebrows.
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Without a doubt.

I know #2 has changed a bit from '99 to '14 to now...

Hoping we get a quality champ this year.

Payne
Michael Campbell
Martin Kaymer.

The Kaymer year was so boring, to be honest.

Nothing will beat '99 though. The setting on Sunday really added to the mystique.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yep, and a few months later on Turkey Day the rest unraveled.

That PGA was something else. I'm sure most of us watched that day thinking it was a foregone conclusion.

Hazeltine produced Rich Beem and YE Yang as PGA winners.
Click to expand...
Short list of worst golfers to win a major, no?
 
B.A.R. said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1800204008231194663

Few good comparison pics
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Kind of prefer it the old way to be honest. I like rough. I went in '98 and saw Bernhard Langer chunk and run an approach shot from the thick rough up the elevated green to be 25 feet. It was a masterful shot. The new sand and wiregrass makes the penalty for missing the fairway a random event. Sometimes you'll get a clean shot, sometimes you won't. They've added too much luck into the process.
 
Gandolf said:
Kind of prefer it the old way to be honest. I like rough. I went in '98 and saw Bernhard Langer chunk and run an approach shot from the thick rough up the elevated green to be 25 feet. It was a masterful shot. The new sand and wiregrass makes the penalty for missing the fairway a random event. Sometimes you'll get a clean shot, sometimes you won't. They've added too much luck into the process.
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That's kind of what I like about it. The randomness of outcome on less than great shots. Like at Memorial, they were just running approach shots through the the green and they would stop 2 feet off the green in the heavy rough. That is a pretty simple shot for a tour pro and pretty boring from a viewing standpoint for me. Plus part of the US Open to me is finding the guys who handle the adversity the best. Wyndham Clark has already lost IMO if he's complaining about green speeds on Monday

I played #2 in 2013, so after the restoration but before they switched from Bent to Bermuda on the greens. Still my favorite course I've ever played. Difficult without being a constant kick in the nuts.
 
Tee times are out- U.S. Open 2024 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOUR

Looking at first round over/under options and top dogs are floating around even par, Scheffler at under 69.5 +100... Seeing a lot players in the 71.5 to 73.5 range.

Typical USGA / Open set-up right, wanting the final, winning score to be floating around even par?
 
gps_3 said:
That's kind of what I like about it. The randomness of outcome on less than great shots. Like at Memorial, they were just running approach shots through the the green and they would stop 2 feet off the green in the heavy rough. That is a pretty simple shot for a tour pro and pretty boring from a viewing standpoint for me. Plus part of the US Open to me is finding the guys who handle the adversity the best. Wyndham Clark has already lost IMO if he's complaining about green speeds on Monday

I played #2 in 2013, so after the restoration but before they switched from Bent to Bermuda on the greens. Still my favorite course I've ever played. Difficult without being a constant kick in the nuts.
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Maybe past experience colored my vision. I played it in the early 90s before it got into the Open rotation. Proud to say I shot 81, birdie on #5. There was a church a couple of blocks away that played musical chimes on the hour that added to the mood.
 
laopadak said:
Tee times are out- U.S. Open 2024 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOUR

Looking at first round over/under options and top dogs are floating around even par, Scheffler at under 69.5 +100... Seeing a lot players in the 71.5 to 73.5 range.

Typical USGA / Open set-up right, wanting the final, winning score to be floating around even par?
Click to expand...
That's what they want but that doesn't mean much unless they truly set it up to test par.

Simply tougher in recent years to have a true US Open.

Many factors...

Last year was easier than they hoped.

Bryson year was one guy just that much better


I think -5 to -7 here gets it done.

Looking back, Woodland was -13 at Pebble. Wow. Obviously Erin Hills was cake.

The last decade has seen a variety of winning scores.

But, back to over/unders... I'm personally going to be careful day one on any unders until I see how these guys play on the track.
 
Inspekdah said:
You like any round scores or matchups for day 1?
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Taking it easy so far Spek, watching early groups tomorrow to see how this track plays out. A couple of futures small but leaving it at that. Trying to not get too excited with all the hype, expectations, falling in love with plays based on stats.

Opportunities should present itself, just need to tell myself to be patient.

Will definitely post as plays come up.

GL this week gentlemen
 
laopadak said:
Could've swore I saw a +5000 early this morning. +4000 readily available for those interested.
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You certainly did(I was posting my first one quickly without giving substance).

I have 5000 as well.

Freeplay is on the 3300 (PPH)

Played the 5000 at BOL later on
 
laopadak said:
Taking it easy so far Spek, watching early groups tomorrow to see how this track plays out. A couple of futures small but leaving it at that. Trying to not get too excited with all the hype, expectations, falling in love with plays based on stats.

Opportunities should present itself, just need to tell myself to be patient.

Will definitely post as plays come up.

GL this week gentlemen
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Agree with all this. Definitely a watch and see to start.
 
Timh said:
Tournament Matchups

Koepka +105 vs. DeChambeau 1*
Hovland +145 vs. McIlroy 1*
Fox -112 vs. Rose 1*
Fleetwood -129 vs. Thomas 1*
Day -102 vs. Clark 1*
Koepka +125 vs. Aberg 1*
Fox -133 vs. Perez 1*
Hovland -105 vs. Aberg 1*

GL felllas!
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Good luck Tim!

Good looking card.
 
Full disclosure: I want action this week and did not spend much time ‘capping.

Full tournament matchups:

mcKibbon -120 vs Berger: I have no idea who this guy is, but to be favored over Berger tells me to blindly play it

Spieth -120 vs Clark: I think Spieth will grind; based on Clark’s comments, I think Pinehurst already has him mentally defeated

Hadley -120 vs Kaymer: this is strictly a fade play against Kaymer

MacIntyre +125 vs Willie Z: I see no reason for Z to be favored -155 vs a guy who is playing well and just recently won

My second favorite golf weekend of the year. Best Of luck with your wagers fellas…
 
RBTrojan said:
Full disclosure: I want action this week and did not spend much time ‘capping.

Full tournament matchups:

mcKibbon -120 vs Berger: I have no idea who this guy is, but to be favored over Berger tells me to blindly play it

Spieth -120 vs Clark: I think Spieth will grind; based on Clark’s comments, I think Pinehurst already has him mentally defeated

Hadley -120 vs Kaymer: this is strictly a fade play against Kaymer

MacIntyre +125 vs Willie Z: I see no reason for Z to be favored -155 vs a guy who is playing well and just recently won

My second favorite golf weekend of the year. Best Of luck with your wagers fellas…
Click to expand...
Outside the box thinking, love it. GL this week
 
RBTrojan said:
Full disclosure: I want action this week and did not spend much time ‘capping.

Full tournament matchups:

mcKibbon -120 vs Berger: I have no idea who this guy is, but to be favored over Berger tells me to blindly play it

Spieth -120 vs Clark: I think Spieth will grind; based on Clark’s comments, I think Pinehurst already has him mentally defeated

Hadley -120 vs Kaymer: this is strictly a fade play against Kaymer

MacIntyre +125 vs Willie Z: I see no reason for Z to be favored -155 vs a guy who is playing well and just recently won

My second favorite golf weekend of the year. Best Of luck with your wagers fellas…
Click to expand...
Agree that Clark will struggle
 
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