NFC Divisional Round: Cowboys vs 49ers Discussion Thread

dfresh said:
Sets up perfectly for the 49ers. Public will overreact to 1H of Seahawks game and the Boys blowing out a college team.

49ers 31 Cowboys 21
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Hopefully.

The last team I wanted to see here.

That being said, SF should win.

Brock has been great but still a bit loose on some balls. Better defenses will get a pick or two..
 
Joe Schmo over at my house. Halftime of Seattle 9ers. Says who you like for the SB. I say 9ers Chiefs. He says really. With Purdy.


That’s the perception that many felt at halftime and then the biggest fanboy team blows out a bad Bucs team.

I didn’t want to see Dallas vs a 5 win talent Vikings team and a 8 win Bucs team. Cowboys may be a 11-12 win team.

But this line is short.
 
Tonight played out exactly like I wanted. Dallas was embarrassed last week and came out, eventually, with its hair on fire against a crap TB team. After getting that elusive road playoff win Cowboys will pat themselves on the back for a couple days with their owner and GM leading the way. Short week of prep, jump back on a plane and they'll come back down to earth against the best team in football.
 
Capaholic said:
I’d bury SF at 3. The difference in DVOA compared to the other games and their differences, this should be about an 8, 8.5 point spread. There’s a bigger drop off in weighted DVOA from SF to Dallas than Philly/NY and KC/Jax.
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Glad someone else sees this like I do. I think SF overwhelms this garbage Cowboy team. 34-10ish
 
Talk will be about Parsons and pass rush vs Purdy and how he reacts but I have a feeling that the niners can run very effectively on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the niners defense is a bit of a different animal for the cowboys offense to face after having open guys all over the place last night. It wasn't like Dak was asked to fit anything into close coverage or through small windows ... those guys were WIDE open. Good luck with that this week.

Also, what is Dallas gonna do about the kicker problem right now? They likely need to attempt a few FGs in this one and that was probably the ugliest kicking performance I have ever seen last night. I don't want to overreact to that but damn.

In addition, while it was total domination by the cowboys, they succeeded on multiple 4th downs in that game and intercepted Brady in the EZ (not sure what that was). Dallas is built for being in the lead defensively where they can just pin their ears back and their weak tackling secondary doesn't have to support in run defense. I have seen most of their games. Diggs is probably the worst tackling cornerback in the league (great cover guy when not gambling too much).

SF has a lot of misdirection in their playbook which they can use to take away some of that aggressiveness from Dallas defense.

When Dallas is right, they look very tough to beat. If they play their A game they are right there with SF or anyone else imo. But SF is consistent and more talented.

One of these coaches has to win .....

I would lean towards SF at these numbers. 6 seems fair to me.
 
It's shaking out to be a big Niners win then somehow lose in Philly...hate that scenario but seems the most likely

Not even sure if it's close in Philly

AFC if Bengals win in Buffalo, hard to see them win at Arrowhead the next week...Jags/KC 1st half might be the highlight of the playoffs
 
Cowboys are playing their fourth road game in a row, and it's on short rest, which in my research is quite rare.

In 2009 the Ravens played their fourth road game in a divisional matchup with Manning's Colts. It was on a Saturday night after the Ravens had played on Sunday the previous week. They got waxed 20-3.

Going back to 1983, I didn't find another instance of a fourth road game in a row on short rest.

The Niners played in the conference championship game last year as their fourth consecutive road game, but they got an extra day of rest having played the previous Saturday. They lost to the Rams.

The Titans also played in the conference championship game in 2019 as their fourth consecutive road game, and they too had an extra day of rest. They lost to the Chiefs.

In 2015 the Steelers played road game #4 in the Divisional round at Manning's Broncos. They also had an extra day of rest. They too lost.

In 2013 the Niners again played a conference championship game as road game #4, losing a memorable matchup with the Seahawks. They played all Sunday games.

In 2005 Carolina made it to the conference championship game as road game #4. They lost to Mike Holgrem's Seahawks. They played all Sunday games.

In 1989 the Rams made it to the conference championship as road game #4 and lost to the dynasty Niners. They played all Sunday games.

There have been four teams that have won three straight on the road in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl....New England 1985, Pittsburgh 2005, Giants 2007, Packers 2010. But they all finished the regular season at home.

Basically, since 1983 there have been SEVEN teams that have played four consecutive weeks of road games.......NONE won that fourth game, no matter how much rest they got.

BUT....... in 1982 I finally found THE EXCEPTION. If you recall that was a strike season, with two months wiped out in early part of the season. THE NEW YORK JETS closed the regular season with 3 straight road games. Then they played in the wildcard round AT CINCINNATI, and won. Then they played in the Divisional Round AT LA RAIDERS, ON SHORT REST, and won. They finally got beat in the conference championship, in their 6th straight road game, at Miami and their Killer Bs.

So I guess what the Cowboys are trying to do is not impossible........just damn close to it.
 
BTW in 1981 the Bills closed the regular season with three straight road games, then opened the playoffs at Shea Stadium and beat the Jets. Road game #5 was a loss at the Bengals.
 
RetroVK said:
That was not Super Bowl MVP Jim Plunkett's best game, @Gandolf

Strike season in the middle of the Raiders dynasty. Such BS
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NY Sack Exchange gave Plunkett problems, harassed him into 3 picks. I don't recall the guy Plunkett hit to take the lead in the 3rd Q....a 57 yard pass to Malcolm Barnwell?
 
RetroVK said:
Talk will be about Parsons and pass rush vs Purdy and how he reacts but I have a feeling that the niners can run very effectively on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the niners defense is a bit of a different animal for the cowboys offense to face after having open guys all over the place last night. It wasn't like Dak was asked to fit anything into close coverage or through small windows ... those guys were WIDE open. Good luck with that this week.

Also, what is Dallas gonna do about the kicker problem right now? They likely need to attempt a few FGs in this one and that was probably the ugliest kicking performance I have ever seen last night. I don't want to overreact to that but damn.

In addition, while it was total domination by the cowboys, they succeeded on multiple 4th downs in that game and intercepted Brady in the EZ (not sure what that was). Dallas is built for being in the lead defensively where they can just pin their ears back and their weak tackling secondary doesn't have to support in run defense. I have seen most of their games. Diggs is probably the worst tackling cornerback in the league (great cover guy when not gambling too much).

SF has a lot of misdirection in their playbook which they can use to take away some of that aggressiveness from Dallas defense.

When Dallas is right, they look very tough to beat. If they play their A game they are right there with SF or anyone else imo. But SF is consistent and more talented.

One of these coaches has to win .....

I would lean towards SF at these numbers. 6 seems fair to me.
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I think Dallas, Jags and Giants are playing in this round because of how weak their Wildcard opponent was.
More easy filtering taking place this weekend in my eyes. SF & KC roll. Giants might put up a fight due to a 3rd game vs Philly. Bills vs Cincy should be a dandy.
I see a great disparity between Dallas-9ers, KC-Jags, NYG-Philly.
 
Here we go. 4-2 in my fan capping in WC round.

Jaguars Plus the pts. --- Everyone in AFC focused on the game of the week and expecting this one to be easy and I think Jaguars continue to compete. How ti plays out ...KC might be a little rusty off the bye first quarter and settle for FG's while Jax runs the ball successfully with a loose team with "nothing to lose". KC and Mahomes pull away a little in the late third qtr and early 4th qtr for the game to be safe and Jax gets the last score of the game bringing it within the number.

Bengals plus the pts -- I think this rates to be a great game between two quality football teams. flip a coin ... but flip a coin would mean pickem. You get points with the Bengals. Concerns with the bengals offensive line and I believe Allen shows up with his A game in this one. Even down 10 late we Burrow for the backdoor and that cannot be too bad. Winner of the turnover battle will win. Not sure who that rates to be necessarily. How it plays out .... teams go back and forth all game with neither team ever leading by more than 10 and each team scores once in the last three minutes to determine the winner.

Niners minus the pts -- I think Niners run well enough on the cowboys and use the creative playbook and play action to slow the cowboys rush while their defense does what their defense always does. Cannot trust the Cowboy kicking unit right now either. How it plays out .... Niners win each half by a small number. Up 6 or 7 late the niners are able to lean on their run game when they need that last first down and are able to take knees.

Eagles minus the pts -- I think the giants are a luckbox. When the giants team owner heard I believed that, he got all the players ring sizes from them for some reason. Don't think you can line up and pound eagles enough for the giants to be successful. How it plays out .... Eagles dominate from start to finish.

This message brought to you by RetroVK, bottom rung employee of Scott Sharp Enterprises.
 
Wait, did someone call TB a college team?? I stopped reading at that point.

SF is pretty much everyone’s pick to win the NFC (mine included), so shocked this didn’t open higher. I’ll likely be on SF but something tells me it won’t be easy.
 
C-MAN said:
Wait, did someone call TB a college team?? I stopped reading at that point.

SF is pretty much everyone’s pick to win the NFC (mine included), so shocked this didn’t open higher. I’ll likely be on SF but something tells me it won’t be easy.
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Crazy how low this line is. It made me look at the 9ers season schedule. 9ers have played below average teams for the majority of their season and got waxed by KC. Hard to imagine Dallas making this a game when you look how poorly they’ve played entering the lowly Bucs game.
 
Dallas now a juiced +3.5! Is someone doing a head fake to get this to 3 then unload on SF? Or is this simple overreaction to Mondays blowout?
 
Zeke said:
Dallas now a juiced +3.5! Is someone doing a head fake to get this to 3 then unload on SF? Or is this simple overreaction to Mondays blowout?
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Probably a fair line considering how many Cow fans are out there in the world that don't give a shit about losing money.

42-2
 
Very real situation here, completely despise both teams

Guess Brock is what makes SF a thing for me, but it's painful
 
I said it before the Dal/TB game, but worth repeating here, Dallas has had an excellent season. The talking heads were being unjustly critical of them because they came out flat against Washington in week 18, but overall look at their body of work. A loss at Philly (3 int from C Rush) and two OT losses at Jacksonville (bit flukey) and at Green Bay. I don’t put much into the week 1 loss against Tampa Bay when Dak went down. In my opinion, much more impressive than SF’s body of work.
 
Can we get a deep fake of Summerall and Madden for this one? I'd even accept a deep fake of Summerall with Caliendo doing a live Madden impression. I like Burkhardt and Olsen but this is Cowboys-Niners we're talking about here. It's the greatest playoff rivalry in league history! Meeting #9 ties Cowboys/Rams and Niners/Packers for most in league history.
 
SF lost to Chi, Atl and Den. I know they were all pre-Purdy but geez those are three pretty bad teams. And, as mentioned before, they were waxed by KC at home. LAC and Mia are most impressive wins, both at home. Dallas has wins over Phi, NYGx2, Min, Cin, Det. The more I’m thinking about it the more I’m leaning towards Dallas.
 
Gandolf said:
Can we get a deep fake of Summerall and Madden for this one? I'd even accept a deep fake of Summerall with Caliendo doing a live Madden impression. I like Burkhardt and Olsen but this is Cowboys-Niners we're talking about here. It's the greatest playoff rivalry in league history! Meeting #9 ties Cowboys/Rams and Niners/Packers for most in league history.
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I was a 49s fan late 80s into the 90s. The first SB I truly remember was the rout of Denver. So, other than Barry and the Lions, SF was my team till the mid 90s.

It seemed unfathomable that they could lose that day in 1992. Those two drives by Dallas after halftime were masterful. Nothing more, nothing less.

Just highlights, but man never forget how great Jerry Rice was.
 
C-MAN said:
I said it before the Dal/TB game, but worth repeating here, Dallas has had an excellent season. The talking heads were being unjustly critical of them because they came out flat against Washington in week 18, but overall look at their body of work. A loss at Philly (3 int from C Rush) and two OT losses at Jacksonville (bit flukey) and at Green Bay. I don’t put much into the week 1 loss against Tampa Bay when Dak went down. In my opinion, much more impressive than SF’s body of work.
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Your points with respect to the cowboys are pretty valid. I would even contend the green bay loss was more of a fluke than the jax one (which i agree was a bit flukey). Your subsequent take about the niners I take a bit of issue with only because I don't think the SF team that was around in the first half of the season is the team we see now. And that waxing to kc was an odd game with a 1 pt deficit for SF at half and 5 pt deficit halfway through the third. It had a ton of penalties and 5 combined turnovers and kc averaged over 11 yards per pass. I would call that a bit flukey too. In any event, the SF team since McCaffery has just been a different animal. The Bears game was Lance's first start if I was not mistaken and in the rain. They were minus 3 in turnovers in the 1 pt loss to denver, and minus 3 in turnovers (including fumble return td) against Atlanta in that loss (outgained atl and had more yards per play). So I am wouldn't weigh all those games the same way as I would the second half of the season games and even if I did, unless I thought the turnover bug was a significant risk in this one, I wouldn't weigh them too heavily either. Basically agree with the Dallas points but disagree somewhat with the SF points.
 
I fully acknowledge the SF team looks a lot different with C-Mac and Purdy. We can only analyze what’s in front of us and since the info is limited I don’t wanna throw out or ignore the whole first half of the season, but certainly should give it less weIght. One could argue this will be the stiffest test San Fran has faced since the changes at QB and RB, and I’m guessing that explains the opening line. The rest situation surely favors San Fran - that cannot be ignored. I also do not like Dallas’ depth at WR, one of the worst 2/3 combos in the league IMO. Definitely a lot to digest here.
 
C-MAN said:
I fully acknowledge the SF team looks a lot different with C-Mac and Purdy. We can only analyze what’s in front of us and since the info is limited I don’t wanna throw out or ignore the whole first half of the season, but certainly should give it less weIght. One could argue this will be the stiffest test San Fran has faced since the changes at QB and RB, and I’m guessing that explains the opening line. The rest situation surely favors San Fran - that cannot be ignored. I also do not like Dallas’ depth at WR, one of the worst 2/3 combos in the league IMO. Definitely a lot to digest here.
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Dallas tt u4.5 is my play
 
The most important piece for this 9ers team was Arik Armstead returning and they’re undefeated since that took place. A different push on the interior and makes Bosa impossible to double. With him playing I always feel good.

Dallas is miles better than Minny and TB. So it’s a legit threat.

In terms of body of work - neither team has beaten a SB contender. Giants wins for Dallas were not impressive at the time. Minny? Come on. Eagles with Minshew couldn’t move the ball the next week after Minshew cut them up for 30+ and a 4th down bomb from winning that game. Redskins defense to me is a poor man’s SF with the strength up front and we saw what that did to Dallas. Best wins of both teams is probably beating 8-3 healthy Miami at the time by the 9ers.

This game comes down to Brock. He’s making huge mistakes every game that are not being captured in the box score or any of the metrics. If he throws a p6, or fumbles the ball running backwards for 20 yards, then this game will be over and over quickly as I think it will shake him.

Cowboys offense as stated here by others didn’t look particularly well on Monday. If they weren’t playing the Bucs they wouldn’t have even got into their third possession until likely the 2nd quarter. Thanks to the Bucs it was 3 mins into the game.

I don’t like the line but these teams in merit this season should be close to PK on a neutrals. And that’s what we have. Plus one team playing with a hot third stringer. I don’t care how hot Cooper Rush could have got if he was starting it would be many points different and I think that’s still in play with the 7th round pick BCB.
 
I think @KJ is right and we have a lot of fanboys adjusting this line a bit like we see with Knicks, Yankees, Dodgers, etc.

-3 @ Bucs was a strong line but you had a lot of the public backing Brady.

The public probably isn’t as excited to back BCB and a defense that looked pretty normal last week vs Seattle.
 
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Dak had his best game of the year last year in Week 18 at Eagles and said “the real shit starts”.

Followed it up with a QBR of 32.4 and they couldn’t run the ball at all.

Mitchell and Debo ran for 168 combined.

Is Dallas oline better this year?
 
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