NFC Divisional Round: Cowboys vs 49ers Discussion Thread

Inspekdah said:
I think @KJ is right and we have a lot of fanboys adjusting this line a bit like we see with Knicks, Yankees, Dodgers, etc.

-3 @ Bucs was a strong line but you had a lot of the public backing Brady.

The public probably isn’t as excited to back BCB and a defense that looked pretty normal last week vs Seattle.
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If it's a good game I'll eat my elbow
 
Inspekdah said:
The most important piece for this 9ers team was Arik Armstead returning and they’re undefeated since that took place. A different push on the interior and makes Bosa impossible to double. With him playing I always feel good.

Dallas is miles better than Minny and TB. So it’s a legit threat.

In terms of body of work - neither team has beaten a SB contender. Giants wins for Dallas were not impressive at the time. Minny? Come on. Eagles with Minshew couldn’t move the ball the next week after Minshew cut them up for 30+ and a 4th down bomb from winning that game. Redskins defense to me is a poor man’s SF with the strength up front and we saw what that did to Dallas. Best wins of both teams is probably beating 8-3 healthy Miami at the time by the 9ers.

This game comes down to Brock. He’s making huge mistakes every game that are not being captured in the box score or any of the metrics. If he throws a p6, or fumbles the ball running backwards for 20 yards, then this game will be over and over quickly as I think it will shake him.

Cowboys offense as stated here by others didn’t look particularly well on Monday. If they weren’t playing the Bucs they wouldn’t have even got into their third possession until likely the 2nd quarter. Thanks to the Bucs it was 3 mins into the game.

I don’t like the line but these teams in merit this season should be close to PK on a neutrals. And that’s what we have. Plus one team playing with a hot third stringer. I don’t care how hot Cooper Rush could have got if he was starting it would be many points different and I think that’s still in play with the 7th round pick BCB.
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Good analysis.


I love that the biggest Niners fans on here are you, dfresh Hunt and myself.
 
B.A.R. said:
Good analysis.


I love that the biggest Niners fans on here are you, dfresh Hunt and myself.
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Here's my random factoid I point out every few years....

I *met" both @Inspekdah and @HUNT on September 3rd, 2005. This was the year before CTG. We were all in an in-game at Covers. Hunt and Spek both for asked my AIM info after we had won money on Mich St 49-14 over Kent St. That was the day of the "Crick".... 16.5 years later hopefully we get that elusive Niners SB.
 
B.A.R. said:
Here's my random factoid I point out every few years....

I *met" both @Inspekdah and @HUNT on September 3rd, 2005. This was the year before CTG. We were all in an in-game at Covers. Hunt and Spek both for asked my AIM info after we had won money on Mich St 49-14 over Kent St. That was the day of the "Crick".... 16.5 years later hopefully we get that elusive Niners SB.
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Feels like it was yesterday. Crazy.
 
I actually did play SF at open, plus I have a SB future on them and several of their starters in my big $ progressive fantasy playoff challenge, so I was invested even before much analysis. Will see how I feel about hedging my risk as we get closer to game time. Would love to see a major line move upwards.
 
B.A.R. said:
The Raiders game and pretty much 75% of the Seattle game was quite concerning.
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The dolphins put up over 6 yards per play against them and were done in by 4 turnovers. The Commanders even put up 350 yards and 21 first downs against them. They played well vs the Bolts, but that was half a season ago and right after KC pink socked em.
 
cubsker said:
The dolphins put up over 6 yards per play against them and were done in by 4 turnovers. The Commanders even put up 350 yards and 21 first downs against them. They played well vs the Bolts, but that was half a season ago and right after KC pink socked em.
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Had miami TT 1h that game. Was so pumped after the first big play. I watched the rest of that game and it was mostly a struggle. Pushed the bet. Honestly was ticked and didn't watch the 2h my much.
 
cubsker said:
The dolphins put up over 6 yards per play against them and were done in by 4 turnovers. The Commanders even put up 350 yards and 21 first downs against them. They played well vs the Bolts, but that was half a season ago and right after KC pink socked em.
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Fish hit for 85 first play. Raiders hit them for a bunch of chunk plays, too.

Crazy that the #1 defense still stood after all of that by the numbers.
 
22nd ranked rush defense for Dallas doesn’t bode well in my opinion. Dallas is a solid pass defense and Brock should be throwing the ball maybe 10 times max if it’s not a screen or a quick hitter to CMC and Debo.
 
I am not a believer that this defense is elite elite. Being the best in the NFL this year doesn’t mean elite. But I think they’re as healthy as they’ve been in some time and are certainly capable of being the best in the league. I complain to my 9er buddies that the defense is not elite and that Brock makes way too many mistakes in the 1h.
 
excited to announce I will be at the game. Snared tix before the TB/DAL game and they are double the price now!

Match up aside, I think the rest edge for the 49ers is massive. Having 2 extra days of rest versus the Cowboys having to go from Monday night and on two different flights.

49ers defense has definitely shown some holes the past few weeks, and yes they are not the historically elite defense at one point they could have appeared to be. That being said, they have been afforded more wiggle room with the explosion of the offense during that time. I think 49ers have enough play makers to slow Dallas enough.
 
I think the first 22.5 game minutes are huge.

Dallas plays much more confident ahead.

Meanwhile, a rookie QB playing with lead and therefore a full playbook is crucial.
 
B.A.R. said:
I think the first 22.5 game minutes are huge.

Dallas plays much more confident ahead.

Meanwhile, a rookie QB playing with lead and therefore a full playbook is crucial.
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That to me is everything. Dallas with a lead is a really good team. Without it, the offense and more importantly the Defense can’t excel at what is their strength
 
C-MAN said:
I said it before the Dal/TB game, but worth repeating here, Dallas has had an excellent season. The talking heads were being unjustly critical of them because they came out flat against Washington in week 18, but overall look at their body of work. A loss at Philly (3 int from C Rush) and two OT losses at Jacksonville (bit flukey) and at Green Bay. I don’t put much into the week 1 loss against Tampa Bay when Dak went down. In my opinion, much more impressive than SF’s body of work.
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Dallas and Dak played terrible vs Houston.
 
Taking a point back

42-3 Niners

Pretty common to see both fans here, both annoying AF so have to sift through the BS. Niners fans are spot on, they are the best team in the NFL and I think that's removing my love for Purdy. Think they win by double digits in Philly too...and think they win the Bowl by 14+

Side note, imo this is the worst NFC tournament in my lifetime
 
This line is so silly. I can’t believe im gonna get to lay -3 w niners w little extra juice. Even if it close which im not sold it will be anyone trust Dallas kicker? Dak be under pressure this week, he will not look nothing the same, didht niners smash tampa by more than Dallas did but now everyone loves cowboys for beating a garbage team. Now they playing a team better than them, at worst niners win close of Dallas plays game of lives, if Dallas isn’t great they get rolled.
 
Wonder if there a prop on how many times Dak will be allowed to sit in pocket and pat ball 2-3-4 times this week w all day to throw? The number be .5 and it go under.
 
Betting Dallas is wishful thinking or I guess just preying purdy falls apart., just as much chance Dak goes back to being a turnover machine.
 
I will likely close open ML parlays with 9ers but first time in while not betting them huge. Have 12u averaging over 20-1 on them to win it all and I’m not hedging at this round. Maybe to get the risk back next round.
 
Inspekdah said:
Glad to see @2daBank has confidence.

Let’s goooo!
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Niners pretty much been the one team I’ve had total confidence to cover spreads and get to the SB, think they even better w purdy cause his athletic ability and moxy, I’ll let others continue fading him expecting him to fall off, I’ll keep riding the wave. His ability to move fast around in pocket is huge cause he gonna have several guys getting open in space. I don’t see Dallas stopping anything they want to do, they will soften that pass rush up by pounding the ball at them early. The only chance I see Dallas having if they can give Dak time I could see them hitting a few deep shots to Gallup or even TY, but I don’t think any chance Dallas can sustain offense vs that d without Dak getting pressured and making mistakes. The track record for these teams is more than enough, there no question imo who the better team is and I don’t think it all that close. It insane the bills laying more to Cindy than niners are here. All the value on niners thanks to the always overrated cowboys looking great on money night vs a trash team. This a big bet for me. I think Gmen a way better dog than Dallas this weekend, lot of questions we can’t know answer for Philly, no questions niners the best team in the nfc by a mile, maybe in the league.
 
Dallas seemed super proud of themselves beating a below .500 team Monday night. It’s not gonna take 5 min for them to be thinking “holy shit, this ain’t gonna be a pillow fight!”
 
I think the -215s out there are also a very strong sign. Maybe this is a 10 point game and Dallas scores at the wire.
 
Inspekdah said:
I think the -215s out there are also a very strong sign. Maybe this is a 10 point game and Dallas scores at the wire.
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Im not worried bout that. The way Dallas kicker kicking I’m not worried bout spread. I’d like to get them -3 but whatever I’d have laid -6 or less.
 
Ref assignments/trends - probably a handicapping tool we should use more - especially when betting only a few games

From Action Network

Bill Vinovich

Underdogs are 11-5 ATS in Vinovich games this season, making him the most profitable ref for underdogs this year. Since 2018, dogs are 50-32-1 ATS (61%) in his games.
In the last decade, road teams are 83-64-3 ATS (56.5%) in Vinovich games.
Vinovich hasn’t been a good sign for the 49ers. They’ve lost three in a row SU and four of their last five, including the 2020 Super Bowl vs. Tampa Bay.
In the last decade, Vinovich games are 89-62-1 (58.9%) to the under, making a $100 bettor $2,159 (14.2% ROI). The under is 62-37 (62.6%) since 2017 (21.1% ROI).
Vinovich has called the fewest total penalties this season (134; 8.38 per game).
Vinovich has only thrown 175 flags, also the fewest of any official.
The most penalized player in terms of flags in the NFL? Tyron Smith with 14 flags on the OL of the Cowboys (tied with Eagles OL Landon Dickerson).


Most Defensive Penalties Committed This Season
T-1. Dolphins, Broncos — 50
3. Cowboys — 47
4. Bills — 44
T-5. Giants, Saints — 42

Most Called Penalties in 2022 by Bill Vinovich

Offensive Holding: 28 (3rd-fewest)
False Start: 27 (2nd-fewest)
Defensive Offsides: 12 (2nd-most)
Defensive Pass Interference: 8 (T-fewest of 17 units; 13.5 is avg)


Link for penalties/ref

www.nflpenalties.com

All Referees - 2022

Penalty statistics for all referee crews that officiated in the 2022 season.
www.nflpenalties.com www.nflpenalties.com
 
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Inspekdah said:
Dak had his best game of the year last year in Week 18 at Eagles and said “the real shit starts”.

Followed it up with a QBR of 32.4 and they couldn’t run the ball at all.

Mitchell and Debo ran for 168 combined.

Is Dallas oline better this year?
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It was, but now Peters is hurt, so who knows? I'm probably playing under.
 
RetroVK said:
Talk will be about Parsons and pass rush vs Purdy and how he reacts but I have a feeling that the niners can run very effectively on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the niners defense is a bit of a different animal for the cowboys offense to face after having open guys all over the place last night. It wasn't like Dak was asked to fit anything into close coverage or through small windows ... those guys were WIDE open. Good luck with that this week.

Also, what is Dallas gonna do about the kicker problem right now? They likely need to attempt a few FGs in this one and that was probably the ugliest kicking performance I have ever seen last night. I don't want to overreact to that but damn.

In addition, while it was total domination by the cowboys, they succeeded on multiple 4th downs in that game and intercepted Brady in the EZ (not sure what that was). Dallas is built for being in the lead defensively where they can just pin their ears back and their weak tackling secondary doesn't have to support in run defense. I have seen most of their games. Diggs is probably the worst tackling cornerback in the league (great cover guy when not gambling too much).

SF has a lot of misdirection in their playbook which they can use to take away some of that aggressiveness from Dallas defense.

When Dallas is right, they look very tough to beat. If they play their A game they are right there with SF or anyone else imo. But SF is consistent and more talented.

One of these coaches has to win .....

I would lean towards SF at these numbers. 6 seems fair to me.
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Lots of good stuff there. Don't forget they picked up CB Mullen from the Raiders where he was known as a willing and able tackler in run support.
 
Gandolf said:
Cowboys are playing their fourth road game in a row, and it's on short rest, which in my research is quite rare.

In 2009 the Ravens played their fourth road game in a divisional matchup with Manning's Colts. It was on a Saturday night after the Ravens had played on Sunday the previous week. They got waxed 20-3.

Going back to 1983, I didn't find another instance of a fourth road game in a row on short rest.
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Right, so I also looked at teams playing on short rest in their third straight away game. There have been four of them in the database, including the Ravens/Colts game you mentioned. The thing that stood out was that they all went well under the total, by 21 (Ravens @ Colts 2009), 11.5 (Steelers @ Bengals 2015), 30 (Ravens @ Bills two years ago), and 24 points (Niners at Packers last year). That's under by an average of 21.6 points.

The Giants are also playing on short rest in a third straight road game
 
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