Houston Cockets @ Golden Showers

Killa

To the left, to the left, to the right to the righ
26-20 +4.70 units

Love this game on Thursday, biggest play of the season so far.


Golden Showers pk {4.4/4}

This line is fundamentally wrong IMO. Let me start by saying that I don't think these G.S. boys will be losing many games at home for the rest of this season. Granted, this is a young fucking team that thrives on emotion, and one might figure them to be more susceptible to the usual vicissitudes of an 82-game season, maybe more than a veteran team that is mentally tough as nails (like the Spurs). But this G.S. team has been "streaking" (with Jax) for too long for it to still be considered a streak. They are simply one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA, and one that Western powers will try to avoid like the plague in the first round. All these players have set aside their egos, and those waiting for this team to melt down will be waiting a long time. I'm 3-0 ATS with the team so far, and they continue to be dissed by the books. Situations where this team is not favored at home this season should be few and far between.

Having said all that, look at the spot this Houston team is in. They lose 6 in a row. They then crush Denver, who is playing brutal ball right now. They crush the Clipps ('nuff said). They then beat Phoenix, who is just not clicking and hasn't been all season. In the process, Yao plays 40 minutes and tears it up. In the span of 24 hours, they are playing the two fastest teams in the NBA. I don't know what the fuck more to say here. Winning at Phoenix and then Golden State 24 hours later is as impressive an achievement as is possible in this league. Me thinks it was a bit personal with Houston and Phoenix tonight, Houston owed that team in a big way, and this was a huge ceiling that they smashed by winning at Phoenix, which they couldn't do for years. They were a team possessed tonight. Again, having to come back 24 hours later, emotionally and physically, and deal with that crowd and that atmosphere and that style of play, fuck. I would normally have rooted for G.S. to lose tonight, but this team thrives on streaks and momentum and they don't need losses to wake them up. Yao might get carried off the court in a casket by the third quarter. Jax and T-Mac will go at it all night. Baron will feast, and I do mean feast, on those little guards Houston plays. If they're smart they'll put Battier on him, but that leaves other problems. G.S. can fuck you up however you want to be fucked up. Pick your poison.

No chalk required. Just need a win. This has to be played. Value defined.
 
Never really thought I'd see the word vicissitudes used in the same posting that also included "fuck you up however you want to be fucked up".

Brilliant post.
 
Killa, any thoughts on the over?

GS were missing shots and the refs were nailing them with offensive fouls. Im liking the O208 as well as the side.
 
brilliant. Gonna be on it. i was (as a GS fan) playing for Houston to beat Utah last yr so that this mismatch would push us to the western conferences (where I hoped we'd meet the suns). It didn't happen and Utah killed as I expected. However, this is spot on.

Normally, Houston gets owned by Phoenix cuz for some reason, except for tonight, Houston has been playin Phoenix on the back of a b2b (look it up). Yao cannot handle the b2b running. Now GS gets the back end. Look for the warriors to slaughter

also, you're right about the not losing many games this yr at home. we lead the league in attendance, which is especially good for us
 
With you killa, good luck. Houston has the advantage on the boards but I think the Warriors run and gun style will give Yao a disadvantage on the defensive end. If they bring in Harrington at the 5 spot, he can ride the perimeter and force Yao out of the paint. Obviously at the offensive end, Yao will have an advantage but he better not miss cus they'll be off to the races and he won't be able to keep up.

And all you others, make sure you put an all-star vote in for Baron Davis. It would be a travesty if this guy doesn't make the all-star game.

B-Diddy western conference starting point guard!!!!!!!!
 
GS 0-3 ATS on b2b and rebounding??

0-3 B2B is an irrelevant trend to me. Rebounding is what it is, but that's why the line is a pk. They won't get owned down low like they do vs. Utah. If Yao pours in 30 and 15 tomorrow, then my hat's off to him. However we can win even if he does.
 
Killa, any thoughts on the over?

GS were missing shots and the refs were nailing them with offensive fouls. Im liking the O208 as well as the side.

Side is better. I'll predict 111-99 for a score.
 
GL killa...playing it large tonight also...wish GSW would have lost...that might have jumped the play to X-large for me...GL
 
Obviously I was dead wrong about which way this line would go. Fuck it.
 
biggest bet of the season riding on a PK....dont know about this one...Houston comes into this one with their eyes open...they know what their up against...i agree with the play, for all the reasons we've talked about...i disagree with the weighting on units youve assigned....i reserve the larger bets for the large dogs who have specific reasons to fight for 48 minutes or for the large favorites where vegas simply doesnt have enough points to lay off to discourage my action
 
Why didn't you just tell me that in the AIM convo we just had? lol
 
how is it an irrelevant trend? these lazy dope smoking gangsters like to rest their legs for a day after running like maniacs. GL anyway
 
but i did...this post was not really for you...but for the people reading your post to create some discussion on the subject on unit "weighting"...which i consider to be my strength and is a HUGELY overlooked factor in sports gambling
 
how is it an irrelevant trend? these lazy dope smoking gangsters like to rest their legs for a day after running like maniacs. GL anyway


please dont call them lazy dope smoking gangsters, please dont do that...please....it IS an irrellevant trend...anyone who puts stock into season trends in the first third of the season has little experience in gambling....or at least in winning
 
but i did...this post was not really for you...but for the people reading your post to create some discussion on the subject on unit "weighting"...which i consider to be my strength and is a HUGELY overlooked factor in sports gambling

I remember you going all out and losing your season winnings not long ago.

Weighting is a very difficult art, only very few people master it.
 
how is it an irrelevant trend? these lazy dope smoking gangsters like to rest their legs for a day after running like maniacs. GL anyway

But they didn't run like maniacs last night, if you watched the game. A few puffs on a J for them this afternoon and they'll be good to go. Love that they couldn't hit the ocean last night from behind the arc, they should shoot much better tonight.

Any 0-3 trend is irrelevant. It's 3 games man. Especially when one was a SU victory at Philly, another was a lay-down spot at Boston, and the other was without Jax vs. a team they can't beat (Utah).
 
Great thread guys.

GL killa. I am a big fan of rebounding but the other factors in this game make this the eright side IMO. I am still deciding myself. I think unlike a Utah team where Booz can go up and down court that Yao will be held to maybe 24-26 minutes due to fatigue, especially after last night.
 
Yah. Booze is a different animal. Yao has played some very good games at Golden State, it's not like I'm counting on him scoring 10 points. But I don't think Adelman will play him 40 minutes again. Maybe not even 35. The thing about Golden State is their runs. A 10-0 run can happen in less than 2 minutes. To keep combating that for 48 minutes on the road, you have to be at your sharpest mentally, and I don't think Houston can be that sharp mentally after last night's HUGE win. As I said, winning at Phoenix and Golden State in a 24-hour span is as impressive an achievement as is possible in this league, and if they do it I tip my cap.
 
I remember you going all out and losing your season winnings not long ago.

Weighting is a very difficult art, only very few people master it.


not a big deal...but just for the record...your reffering to a season where i was up 10K at one point...went down to about 4K up....however i ended up paying off a student loan with that seasons winnings....i beleive it was somewhere in the neighborhood of an 8K winning season....HOWEVER...my winning percentage was prolly 10th best on the board at covers that season....but i prolly had the most money won in proportion to my bankroll on the entire site that year....weighting is VERY important...ask BAR...it's how we make our money
 
not a big deal...but just for the record...your reffering to a season where i was up 10K at one point...went down to about 4K up....however i ended up paying off a student loan with that seasons winnings....i beleive it was somewhere in the neighborhood of an 8K winning season....HOWEVER...my winning percentage was prolly 10th best on the board at covers that season....but i prolly had the most money won in proportion to my bankroll on the entire site that year....weighting is VERY important...ask BAR...it's how we make our money

I will vouch for Bill here. He was up at that number and had an uneven stretch after. I remember somone asking me this and I even tracked it down and his numbers are right on. Thats an NBA season at times..big swings. Weighting is very important in my mind but you have to have a lot of patience and not overreact to the swings of the season.
 
B.A.R...if my record was incorrect in the slightest...the record German would have been all over my ass, everyone if you don't know who the record German is...he's the author of this thread...

btw, go golden state!!!!!!!
 
B.A.R...if my record was incorrect in the slightest...the record German would have been all over my ass, everyone if you don't know who the record German is...he's the author of this thread...

btw, go golden state!!!!!!!
:36_11_6:
 
Your record was incorrect multiple times, and I corrected you multiple times, as I have done with countless other posters. Funniest thing about people making "mistakes" on their record? The "mistakes" never, ever, ever short the person's record. Ever. Without fail, without exception, every "mistake" on a poster's posted record has been such that "errs" on the positive side. And that is the source of my amusement.
 
Well, that, and the only reasonable conclusion of that phenomenon, which is the mind-numbing absurdity of a human being lying about a record on a gambling forum full of complete strangers.
 
lmao i totally agree, I call out people every now and then and they always defer blame on me. Like i was the one who fucked the record up.
 
there is a very simple explaination....sometimes after a loss you go directly to sleep depressed...after a win, your on your thread thanking everybody for giving you a hand and shit...you dont forget wins...every once in a while you let a loss slip....and you obviously know any mistake wasn't deliberate, NOT to mention that i have in fact left out wins before, i remember once when i posted a 2-2 night as (-20) ...but had in fact won 90 bucks that night
 
Not really sure what I am doing on this game. GS last 20 b-b 5-15 su and ats. Houston 10-10 su and 9-11 ats. GS had to suffer with no SJ but Houston 2-2 b-b this year was missing Tracy in their 2 losses and it seems to me Houston is much the deeper team this year. GS does have a very good record on Thursday nights.
 
houston held denver to 81 pts, and just ended a long ass fuckin streak of pho scoring 100 points. arguably the best two offenses, houston is dank at defense. if GS for som reason shows fatigue and tries to run a half court offense which they don't have, they will lose.
 
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