CFL Syndicate 2021

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#3DownNation
Alright, time to get this started.

Syndicate Record...
2017 65-50-3 56.5% +24.02*
2018 71-50-1 58.7% +19.69*
2019 76-58-4 56.7% +13.38*

Overall 212-158-8 56.7% +57.09*

Something is working.

First play o' they year...

1* Edmonton over 5 RSW -135

I think the Elks have been seriously undervalued obth with RSW and their cup odds. I think they'll be better than last year and even though they have some significant changes, they scored a quality coach who just so haoppened to be Trevor Harris' OC during his best stints in Ottawa. Lots more to talk about with this team but suffice to say I think they are a 7-7 team this season.
 
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@Hulu do you know how to stream CFL in America? I had to listen to the Blue Bombers championship on my phone and would really like to watch some games this year.
 
guaranteeed said:
Espn+ has it doesnt it?
Click to expand...

They did in 2018 and 19 so very likely. I seem to recall scarf saying it was like $5 a month but maybe thats on top of a cable package. Or maybe through apple tv or some other bullshit. I dunno man, I'm getting old.

There used to be a subreddit called CFL streams but I don't know if its still around. For whatever reason the illegal streams are usually from sky sports so you get CFL games interspersed with ads for British sportsbooks and McDonalds
 
Quay Bray gets my vote for comeback player of the year if he gets to Montreal that is. Dude gets caught red handed with 159lbs of weed in his car, in fucking Texas no less and somehow walks away with a fine. Now he just needs a special ministers permit to get across the border with his criminal record but I'd take -180 that happens.

159lbs of pot in texas...and he gets a fine...hmmmm. Maybe thats why he's eager to cross a border. Might be some people upset with him right about now. Just speculation of course.
 
Thoughts on other RSW numbers...

BC looks pretty good to go over 5 wins. Currently at -115 flat. The more I look at this team, the more I think they might be the most improved in the league and should be able to get to 6 wins. 5-13 LY but with Reilly missing a few games toward seasons end. The story LY was the crap play of the OL but they quietly played much better through the last 6 games and have now been totally revamped. RT Ryker Matthews that they signed away from Hamilton is a big time get. Reilly will stay on his feet and although the receiving corps looked a little thin, they have added Dominique Rhymes and Lucky Whitehead to complement the elite Bryan Burnham. Jovon Cottoy is a year older and could turn into a Fantuz type of inside threat. The defence has some major additions too and I think 2019 draftee Jordan Williams could turn into a wrecking crew at MLB once he adapts to the pro game. I could see him starting TY. Not too hard to imaging this stacked team going 6-8 or better although they do have two tough travel spots and their last bye in week 10. They finish off the year playing 6 straight including a 3 game road trip.

Toronto under 6.5 can be had for -105 but may get better as the typical TSN type season previews start hitting the airwaves. The story on this team is all the big free agent signings. They are basically an all star team at this point with massive additions all over the field. Ratio breakers in Cam Judge and Henoc Muamba. Big name receivers DeVaris Daniels, Juwan Brescasin, Eric Rogers, Martavus Bryant...I mean where do you even put them all?? Stacked doesn't even describe it. Except that of all the young QBs that stepped up last year, I see Nick Arbuckle as the most likely to falter. Completely new situation with a new coaching staff, no preseason, a potentially bickering crew of diva receivers and on it goes. This team could be unstoppable at some point but they will need a lot of work to get rowing in the same direction (sigh). If Arbuckle falters early it won't be long before the Toronto sports media is calling for Macbeth and then you have a whole other problem. And this year we have this red headed step child of a CFL schedule so SOS is suddenly a thing and the Argos have the toughest schedule of any team by some margin. They play Hamilton 4 times including the usual labour day in the hammer where they are like 30% SU all time going back a hundred years and they start off the year with a gauntlet of @CAL, @WPG, WPG, EDM, @HAM, HAM, SSK. They could easily be 2-5 with only 7 games left. Oh and they have a weird spot in week 10 with short week and a bye to end the season which would only help in the playoffs so they are essentially playing 14 games in one less week than the rsst of the league. If this gets to 7 I will pound the under like its Natasha Stanisszewski
 
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One more...

Ottawa under 3.5 is +100 and I'm not sure who's betting the over here. This team went 3-15 LY and are now appreciably worse. Almost nothing in the way of receivers (although I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up Toronto's drippings) and an OL that is retiring faster than you can keep up. The mass exedous has begun and there will be more retirements before it is all over. Sure they have a new coach in Paul Lapolice who was one of the best OCs in the modern era but what the hell is he going to do with this roster?? Sure they have Matt Nichols but he is a statue coming off a major injury behind what may be a historically bad line. I watched Hamilton go 2-16 with the legendary Danny Mac behind center so it takes more than just a QB. A QB can sometimes carry a team but this is a JV team. I could see them winning 1 or 2 games this year, maybe 3.
 
Hulu said:
They did in 2018 and 19 so very likely. I seem to recall scarf saying it was like $5 a month but maybe thats on top of a cable package. Or maybe through apple tv or some other bullshit. I dunno man, I'm getting old.

There used to be a subreddit called CFL streams but I don't know if its still around. For whatever reason the illegal streams are usually from sky sports so you get CFL games interspersed with ads for British sportsbooks and McDonalds
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ESPN+ is 4.99 a month by itself.
 
I think this year we see a realignment of the west division. Calgary and Winnipeg have question marks and Sask already lost 2 OL starters and just had 4 players go down with achillies injuries 2 days before camp including 2 projected starters on defense.

Could Edmonton and BC be ascendant this year?
 
guaranteeed said:
If I remember right he has the arm strength, which is usually the big need for these guys coming up

I'd rather take a flyer on him than shea patterson
Click to expand...

Agreed Patterson is pure camp meat unless he finds a role as a short yardage guy.

I wonder if the Riders station a counsellor at the Regina airport to assist ex-NFLers who arrive and start wondering what they've done with their lives.
 
Ok making this official. The more I look, the more I like. Reilly came to camp in shape and sounding competitive. No more silly hats and beards. He's got a new OL and a shit ton of speed at receiver. The LB corps could be scary. No preseason to put it all together but this team will surprise.

1* BC Lions over 5 RSW -115
 
I don't think I'll touch the other 2 I mentioned. Maybe Toronto under if it were to go up to 7/7.5 but I see some movement the other way now so I don't think it does. And Ottawa under 3.5 is just so low although if you could get a 4 I think it would be money.
 
Hulu said:
Quay Bray gets my vote for comeback player of the year if he gets to Montreal that is. Dude gets caught red handed with 159lbs of weed in his car, in fucking Texas no less and somehow walks away with a fine. Now he just needs a special ministers permit to get across the border with his criminal record but I'd take -180 that happens.

159lbs of pot in texas...and he gets a fine...hmmmm. Maybe thats why he's eager to cross a border. Might be some people upset with him right about now. Just speculation of course.
Click to expand...


3downnation.com

Alouettes receiver Quan Bray reports to Montreal for training camp - 3DownNation

Alouettes receiver Quan Bray has reported to Montreal for training camp. The Als were able to get Bray across the United States-Canada border, which was the reason why he had been added to the suspended list. He’s been transferred to the active roster and will join his teammates on the field...
3downnation.com 3downnation.com

:rofl: Love it.
 
3downnation.com

Expect to see NFL-style injury reports in the CFL for the 2021 season - 3DownNation

The CFL is preparing to provide consistent transparency regarding injuries to players with single-game sports betting being legalized in Canada. TSN reporter Farhan Lalji has the details: “The CFL and its general managers have agreed the league will need to be more transparent this season when...
3downnation.com 3downnation.com

Not sure how I feel about this.. Its probably about time the CFL adopted a standardized injury reporting system but OTOH I made a lot of hay by digging deep to find the things that weren't out there. Talking with beat reporters, following players etc was always a big part of my game. Its getting tougher and tougher to gain an edge.
 
Camp injuries starting to pile up for Sask and to a lesser extent, Edm.

Sask loses 4 to achilles tears on day 1 including the leagues 1b MLB Larry Dean and 2 starters in the secondary. All gone for the year. Then they lose a T on a line that is already a bit suspect. The MLB situation is a huge hit. Larry Dean was a big get for them and they had to lose Cam Judge to make it happen. And losing Lokombo will fuck up their ratio plans meaning they may have to stuff in a second NI receiver and they don't have the talent to do that quite frankly.

Edmonton's injuries look much more minor in comparison but I do have concerns about their OL. Will have to monitor the situation.
 
Adding...

0.25* Edmonton to win Grey Cup +1400

Just too much value to ignore here for what should be a playoff team who will be in the hunt for first place all season long.
 
Between retirements and injuries, offensive lines across the league have been hit worst of any position group. Capping them is going to be key this season. Here's my early ranking

1. Winnipeg - Complete and deep. Easily the best and they will need it with a glass QB

2. Hamilton - Lost all-important LT in free agency and now 9yr C Mike Filer to retirement. Have some depth but need to plug those holes.

3. Edmonton - Lost starting T and G but can fill those spots. Sirvincent Rogers healthy again. Also, they will play with some pace to keep defense off balance.

4. BC - From worst of the decade in 2019 to above average (at least on paper). New coach Kelly Bates had them playing better through the last 3rd of 2019 and now has a quality LT and best players healthy again.

5. Calgary - Was good but lost 2 starters and backups looked shaky in '19. Need to find some quality to fill those spots

6. Toronto - Line was below average LY and lost 2 starters. Should get better this year but not sure by how much.

7. Saskatchewan - Lost 3 starters to injury/retirement/opt-out and now projected RT has a shoulder injury. Definite weak point but they will play with pace TY to keep defense moving

8. Montreal - Still getting a read on this one. Lot of turnover here.

9. Ottawa - Disaster. Lost 4/5 starters on a below avg line from 2019 and now have serious holes to fill. Causing ratio issues also. Maybe a few guys step up in camp. Maybe not. QB is a statue.


2 weeks til opening night!!!
 
Hulu said:
Between retirements and injuries, offensive lines across the league have been hit worst of any position group. Capping them is going to be key this season. Here's my early ranking

1. Winnipeg - Complete and deep. Easily the best and they will need it with a glass QB

2. Hamilton - Lost all-important LT in free agency and now 9yr C Mike Filer to retirement. Have some depth but need to plug those holes.

3. Edmonton - Lost starting T and G but can fill those spots. Sirvincent Rogers healthy again. Also, they will play with some pace to keep defense off balance.

4. BC - From worst of the decade in 2019 to above average (at least on paper). New coach Kelly Bates had them playing better through the last 3rd of 2019 and now has a quality LT and best players healthy again.

5. Calgary - Was good but lost 2 starters and backups looked shaky in '19. Need to find some quality to fill those spots

6. Toronto - Line was below average LY and lost 2 starters. Should get better this year but not sure by how much.

7. Saskatchewan - Lost 3 starters to injury/retirement/opt-out and now projected RT has a shoulder injury. Definite weak point but they will play with pace TY to keep defense moving

8. Montreal - Still getting a read on this one. Lot of turnover here.

9. Ottawa - Disaster. Lost 4/5 starters on a below avg line from 2019 and now have serious holes to fill. Causing ratio issues also. Maybe a few guys step up in camp. Maybe not. QB is a statue.


2 weeks til opening night!!!
Click to expand...
Love this, thank you.
 
Calgary, Sask and Ottawa all continuing to sign linemen. Given that with a 7 day quarantine requirement, they won’t even be eligible to hit the field until days before the opener, I think it’s a good indication that these teams see their O lines as a work in progress.
 
Only 9 days left and things are rounding into shape. I have one spot I love in week 1 and may go big depending on the number.

Also, there is something noticed in 2019 that came up 3 times during the season. I just went through matchups this year and it looks like it will come up 5 times this year. I'm not going to give it away because I think they may become auto-plays but I'll note them when I make them.

Also also, I may play some player props TY. I noticed in 2019 some books had some posted and I think there is a good chance to take advantage in a couple of specific ratio situations I have identified.

9 days! I am gonna carjack the fucking books!
 
Now 9 confirmed torn achilles in just over 2 weeks, league wide. Sask leading the league with 5. Never seen anything even close to this in any sport.
 
Riders OL is in serious trouble. Vaughn leads this pack but his shoulder is in a brace and he’s been avoiding contact there at camp.

Reports from the scrimmage they held said defenders were routinely in the backfield and rushes were being blown up. The offence failed to score against the D and HC Dickerson called the scrimmage early because he said “they clearly weren’t ready to play a game”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420358350693273600
 
0.5* Saskatchewan under 8.5 RSW -133

I already thought this team would likely regress a bit after a surprise 2019 season where they reeled off an impressive winning streak and finished atop the division at 13-5. But even as they were doing it, they always looked like paper tigers to me. The defence was outstanding but I didn't buy into Fajardo as a long term elite QB. The history of football is littered with QBs who burst onto the scene with an unorthodox style and then faded when opposing defences had a season of film to study. I think Fajardo might be one of those.

Then you look at what they've lost on the defence from 2019...MLB Elimimian, DE Charleston Hughes, LB Cam Judge (NI), LB Derrick Moncrief. So they sign Larry Dean to anchor the middle but he goes down for the year on day 1 of camp. And they sign Freddie Bishiop to help shore up the defensive line...another season ending injury. They draft Nelson Lokombo who could eventually replace Judge...another torn achilles.

Now look at the OL which was so good in 2019. Gone are T Coleman and Guards Bladk and Blake. Then Brendan Labatte opts out of 2021 and suddenly they have to replace 4/5 offensive linemen. They did sign Evan Johnson away from Ottawa and brought in an American veteran (name ecapes me atm) who promptly retires part way through camp due to bad knees. This line is a disaster right now and Fajardo will be running for his life. They will likely have to stuff an extra NAT receiver into the starting lineup to help the OL but that hurts them. They have a good RB in William Powell but he is 36 now which is senior citizen age for a RB.

Finally, one of the reasons this team did so well in 2019 was they had the second lowest number of turnovers in history (only 2012 BC was lower). So they had their share of bounces which is not something that can be counted on happening again.

If you asked me 3 weeks ago I would have said 9-5 or 10-4 this season but after seeing player after player go down, I think this team will struggle to win 7.
 
Edmonton cuts Vontae Diggs and will go with 2 noobs at LB. Diggs was ROY 3 years ago so I hope this is a sign of the talent they have at that position. They also cut Shawn Lemon but thats no surprise because they have Betts to fill the DE spot and Lemon is getting older.

On the offence they cut RT Thaddeus Coleman which is a bit surprising even though he is 36. I'll bet he is picked up by Sask in the next week.

For the first time in memory, 2 teams will have NAT backup QBs, BC with Nathan Rourke and Calgary with Michael O'Conner.

I was wrong about Paxton Lynch. He showed up with the right attitude and seems to understand that if he wants to get back to the NFL, the CFL route is a 3 year commitment minimum. He has by all accounts competed very well in camp and may actually displace Isaac Harker as the backup. If he doesn't, I doubt he'll accept a practice roster spot but another team could scoop him up as a cheap backup. He is playing for the rookie minimum.

Speaking of rookie minimum, Shea Patterson earned a spot on the roster over Will Arndt. I think its a money move as they mustve realized that if they get doen to their third stringer having to start, they're fucked anyway so why pay more? Patterson on the rookie deal while Arndt is a 3rd year guy.
 
I'm finding it tough to cap the first couple weeks of a league that hasn't played in almost 2 years.
I'm curious to see what picks HULU has up his sleeve for week 1 & I'm looking forward to the start of the CFL season on Thursday.
 
Steveoreno said:
I'm finding it tough to cap the first couple weeks of a league that hasn't played in almost 2 years.
I'm curious to see what picks HULU has up his sleeve for week 1 & I'm looking forward to the start of the CFL season on Thursday.
Click to expand...

Welcome aboard friend,. I agree its tough to cap anything right now. Especially with vets off a 1.5 year off season...do they benefit from the extra long rest or do they just look that much older? Its going to be tough getting a read on these teams for a little bit.

That being said, I do have a strategy planned for week 1.
 
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