Hulu's CFL 2019

Well what a shit show this weekend was. I don’t think any team could’ve won against Trevor Harris and his game for the ages. And who’d have thought BLM would struggle the way he did? That’s gambling I guess and weeks like this make me hate it. I’ll tally up the damage later.

Both final games are a bit tough to cap for me. I’ll take it slow this week and won’t be hitting any openers unless they are crazy. I may just sit it out and hope for a Winnipeg vs Hamilton Grey Cup since I have futures on both.

At least with Calgary getting knocked out no one will have HFA in the big game.
 
Results after Regular Season

Sides 29-23-3 +0.582*
Totals 23-19-1 +2.680*
Parlay/Tease 1-2 +0.900*
2H bets 11-8 +1.930*
Live 7-3 +2.075*

Overall 71-55-4 +8.167*

Advantage over close
Sides: +38.0 pts or 0.69ppb
Totals: +32.5 pts or 0.76ppb

2-4 -3.425* in the division semis.

That really stung because I thought I had the playoffs all mapped out in my head and then I got blindsided. In retrospect, Trevor Harris has pulled off this kind of playoff before, last year in fact. He seeme to be one of those guys that can just raise it in the playoffs somehow. And I don't regret the 2 live bets on Calgary because I've won money doing that with them this year and it was bound to go the other way eventually. He is still one of the best 2H comeback QBs in the league.
 
This week's games are tough. In Hamilton, I feel like this team is hungry. Many of these guys have been aound through the past few losing seasons and are ready to go to the dance.

Edmonton really sur[rised me by playing their best game of the year by a long shot but when watching it again last night, Montreal really gave that game away. We knew that getting pressure was not Montreal's forte considering their undersized DL but it was obvious through the first half that Trevor Harris was easily picking apart their zone. They couldve adjusted at the half but they just kept playing it and he kept beating it. There is no way he is going to sneak up on Hamilton like that. Their defense will get pressure and their secondary will cover. Add in the fact that Edmonton has a tough schedule playing two eastern teams B2B on the road while travelling home in between and I think Hamilton should win this one easily. The books have overreacted to Edmonton's impressive showing last week so I have to bet it, on principle. This line will very likely move so as always, if I have to buy off for some reason later, I can. I made this line 7.

1.5* Hamilton -4 -108
 
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The west final is tricky. We really don't know the status of Cody Fajardo just yet. He has said he will play no matter how painful but the doctors will weigh in first. This type of oblique injury could sustain permanent damage if it doesn't heal properly (according to dr twitter anyway) so who knows. I am guessing we have this historically low total of 44 for that reason. Strong lean to the over here but I would want to know Fajardo's status. And realistically we might not know. Even if he plays, how effective will he be playing in pain? If Harker starts against the Winnipeg defense, it could easily slide under this number. Pass for now.

Lean to Winnipeg +4 if Harker starts. If Fajardo starts, its probably about right.
 
As of now, weather looks perfect in both cities for Sunday. Cool, but about freezing and Sunny. I'll keep monitoring for changes throughout the week.
 
Hulu said:
The west final is tricky. We really don't know the status of Cody Fajardo just yet. He has said he will play no matter how painful but the doctors will weigh in first. This type of oblique injury could sustain permanent damage if it doesn't heal properly (according to dr twitter anyway) so who knows. I am guessing we have this historically low total of 44 for that reason. Strong lean to the over here but I would want to know Fajardo's status. And realistically we might not know. Even if he plays, how effective will he be playing in pain? If Harker starts against the Winnipeg defense, it could easily slide under this number. Pass for now.

Lean to Winnipeg +4 if Harker starts. If Fajardo starts, its probably about right.
Click to expand...

Rethinking the logic of this, we either get Fajardo healthy, Fajardo in some pain, Fajardo in a lot of pain or Harker. I think there's a better than 50/50 chance that Sask's QB situation is not optimal. Also, there's another big factor that I haven't considered here...Zach Collaros. He has looked really damn good the past 2 games now and I'm starting to believe in him again. Behind a great OL he is capable of some solid QB play. But here's the big thing...he was a Saskatchewan Roughrider for the first half of the season so he knows their offense inside and out. Now I'm sure coach Dickenson used their bye week to install some new things but its only going to change so much at this point in the year so I think Winnipeg gets a prep advantage here with Collaros knowledge. With a really low total and Winnipeg's defense which is capable of locking down a game at times, I think Winnipeg +4 has real value. I see some books moving to 3.5 so I'm going to stake an opening position here.

1*/0.25* Winnipeg +4 / ML -110 / +165
 
Hulu said:
Both final games are a bit tough to cap for me. I’ll take it slow this week and won’t be hitting any openers unless they are crazy. I may just sit it out and hope for a Winnipeg vs Hamilton Grey Cup since I have futures on both.
Click to expand...

When I say stupid shit like this...just ignore me.
 
Many shops have gone to Hamilton -6.

Being on the right side of market movement hasn’t meant a whole lot this season but I’d still rather be with it than against it.
 
One thing about Craig Dickinson is that he’s a glass half full kind of guy. It’s looking like Fajardo will play but questions remain about his ability to throw. Can he throw deep or hit the wide side out? If not Ritchie Hall and the Bombers defence will figure it out pretty quick. Also, I think an oblique tear is worse for a guy like Fajardo who moves a lot and throws on the run. That’s very likely how he hurt it in the first place.

Still like the Bombers +4 here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1195084874270429184
 
Shaq Evans hasn’t practised this week and is now listed as questionable for Sunday.

Bombers bet looking better and better.
 
B.A.R. said:
Excited for tomorrow.

I'll live bet in some shape or form if need be.
Click to expand...

I haven’t been this jacked for a game in a long time. Cats haven’t won it all since ‘99 and I’m ready. Got my jersey picked out and even dreamt about the game overnight (Frankie Williams had a big opening ko return to setup an early TD. 2pt convert makes it 8-0 early).

I’ll be in my usual seat 15th row at the 54 yard line and will be live betting from my phone if opportunities arise.
 
Final report on Sasks health...

Fajardo will start but his ability to throw deep is still in question as well as his ability to absorb contact. Apparently he threw some 25 yard passes from a standing position in practice.

#1 receiver Shaq Evans didn’t practice all week and is a GTD.
 
And what an ending to that west final. Classic CFL playoff game and it ends on an #OnlyInTheCFL play when Fajardo's pass hits the crossbar.
 
Hulu said:
And what an ending to that west final. Classic CFL playoff game and it ends on an #OnlyInTheCFL play when Fajardo's pass hits the crossbar.
Click to expand...
No kidding. Was just waiting for the bombers to give up the lead the whole second half, but big stops near goal line and traded a couple fgs
 
Results after Division Finals

Sides 32-23-3 +3.755*
Totals 23-20-1 +2.080*
Parlay/Tease 1-2 +0.900*
2H bets 12-8 +2.180*
Live 7-3 +2.075*
Futures 0-1 -0.60*

Overall 75-57-4 +10.39*

Advantage over close
Sides: +43.0 pts or 0.74ppb
Totals: +32.5 pts or 0.74ppb

4-1 +2.82*. A half point away from 5-0.

But more importantly my beloved Tiger-Cats are going to the show as a favourite.
 
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Still sitting on these from way back on page 1...

1* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +725
0.75* Winnipeg to win Grey Cup +533

So I probably won't be getting involved with a side. I think Hamilton will be favoured and quite possibly by too much. My early thought is that -2.5 is probably right but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4 or more after they way they destroyed the Esks today. Value would definitely be on the Bombers at that number.

Total is a different story...there's a lot to think about there. Both these teams have higher scoring offenses but 2 of the stingiest defenses. I'll have to put some thought into how these two match up this week to see if theres a play there.

And of course the Grey cup offers props too. So much fun.
 
I been on the bombers all playoffs i even took them against my stamps iam going to ride them to the end.:shake:
 
Game should be a great one, it's a good matchup

nicole Kidman in the stands

People across the country from all over learning that picking up a girl at cowboys is like shooting fish in a barrel

What could be better
 
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