3.7

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
At this point I dont know what to call this anymore ...mooses , bad luck , my stupidty , decision making..LAL leads the entire game then suddenly Smush Parker cant hit a FT and misses 3 of 4 in the 1st OT which he decided, I wait till this morning to play the Dal over which I did love and it moves against me get 192.5 instead of 190.5 it falls on 191..., and the Kings were the icing up 15 at half and up 7 with 53 seconds win by 4 not -4.5.....all that BS and I lost -2.20 units....if I had won those three I would be +20 units....this has just become a daily event since Pinny left the market....

Memphis @ Toronto : Some injuries for sure but Tor seems back to no defense...another 120 allowed tonite. Last meeting cracked 210 in Mem before the runNgun experiment and Bosh and Ford missed..would like to see mem healthy here but should it matter...maybe my pattened 1st H Grizzlies play cause Raps shouldnt be favored by 8.5 playing no defense...Memphis has 3 days off and B2B for Tor..(ov 208 , +4.5 1st H and +8.5 game)

Wash @ ATL : The HAwks have given them hell twice and the line is correct. JJ is banged up but nothing serious and Marvin Williams is questionable after missing the 2nd H last game. The total seems high but it might be a play with Hawks going over at home lately. Wiz only 4-10 B2B.

Sea @ Philly : No opinion yet. Wilcox got 4 stitches in his head tonite , Ridinour missed and now Allen on B2B. Oh and they have lil depth. Maybe another Under..difference bewteen Philly and NYK is that the Knicks have these mental mentdowns where they cant defend the THREE BALL...go over the NYK games u will see...13 of 24 for Seattle Earl Watson was ridiculous tonite...Philly allows about 33 %...big difference..thats 8 of 24 and -15 pts for SEA tonite....and NYK missed how many FTs ...Philly would have to beat themselves to lose.....

Cle @ Det : Pistons have played 5 straight subpar games IMO but should get Sheed back here. Take out the blasting they gave ORL and where have they been impressive lately??? We are talking 10 games then...Cle is up and down but I like Hughes at the point. SO despite DET playing well against CLe ilike the dog..Cavs 8-2 ATS vs 3-7 ATS Det with wins vs ORL twice and LAC w/o Brand..

Chi @ Miami : we all know that in Affinitys words the Bulls aregood for there road meltdown at some point. Basically they struggle to win away and in some capacity find ways to lose. Miami is only 10-1 last 11 at home and I believe 10-0-1 ATS in that span. I thought ATL could hang with them but they really didnt..I hate Kapono;s loss but Nocioni could be worse...maybe a Ben Gordon prop here he has played well vs Miami..Heat beat Chi in the playoffs and Bulls returned the favor by winning by 42 in Miami on opening nite......really like Miami here if not for losing Kaponos outisde threat but Walker has played well....as I said onMonday I think this games means alot to Miami.....this has the making sof another 80 something game and a nice 1st H under but could unload on Miami great spot for redemption IMO.....

I will be on Boston+5.5. I really dont believe that HOU cares about revenge here cause they dont care about the C's. Lets face Mac sat out cause they didnt care that nite. Guess what he might do it again with knee issues and the flu.....! Ming will be working his way back...Houston couldnt win in ATL recently and have not performed well as road chalk...C's have won 4 straight two of which were in OT and Rockets have dropped 4 of 5.

Bucks -3.5 : Lakers continue to be a funk for the most part. rested team against one with injuries and DOUBLE OT....the minutes INSANE Kobe 53 and Cook even had 49 the bench played sparingly...LAL is desperate and it showed..

The Suns will score as many as they want but just not sure I can play anything but a 1st H over....could get ugly....

Indiana @ Utah : Really the Pacers are unbettable at this point and Utah is smoking teams. I cant lay nearly 11 though as Indy has talent..maybe 1st H Jazz..over if Indy shows up..


Denver @ GSW : Good chance that Melo doesnt travel. Since they won easily tonite and three times vs GSW...could be a spot for the dog / GSW but need to see a line...GSW finally has a healthy team....

BOL...will be back on WED:cheers:
 
like this spot for the fucks and kobe ! can possibly be suspended
 
Despite the huge line, Bryant wasn't all that effective from the field (13-30 FG) and was frustrated at times by Marko Jaric. He then appeared to take out his frustrations on Jaric, nailing him in the face just as he did Manu Ginobili by flailing his arm to draw a foul. Instead, Bryant was nailed with a loose-ball foul, and it remains to be seen whether the league will again take action. Mar. 6 - 11:38 pm et


Maybe we should get some MILK now with the possibility of Kobe being suspended....-3.5 it is!!!!
 
really how can you not like this spot even if kobe plays fucks coming off a tough loss at home to the bulls then get blown out to the magic lakers coming off 2OT and arent playing good
 
thecakeoff said:
really how can you not like this spot even if kobe plays fucks coming off a tough loss at home to the bulls then get blown out to the magic lakers coming off 2OT and arent playing good
Click to expand...

Agreed...line could be -8 though w/o Kobe and Odom...buy now ask questions later possibly...
 
Have some stuff to pst in the next hour or so ...bear with me...

Hopefully some people jumped in on Milw @ -3.5
 
SportsNut said:
Have some stuff to pst in the next hour or so ...bear with me...

Hopefully some people jumped in on Milw @ -3.5
Click to expand...

:smiley_acbe:

I did. Liked it and was going to wait til today, but after reading your speculations about kobe last night...had to jump on.

:shake:
 
Nut,
Agree with Tor defensive issues. Made a play on the 4 road win Grizzlies catching 8.
I also think JJ for the ATL is banged up a little, although his scoring is streaky having watched him closely on my fantast team. I like Bullets here only giving up 2. I never really like road fav's but after seeing their game last night... I do tonight..
GL with your plays
 
Good work guys...

Wizards -2.5 {2units} : Washington barely broke a sweat last nite. Two of the bigger pieces of ATL's puzzle Marvin Williams and Joe Johnson( Speedy Claxton also) are expected to miss. One of those games where it seems the books are handcuffed. I dont want to get crazy here cause Anthony Johnson is a guy that worries me and the leftover pieces are still solid...Josh Smith , Josh Childress , Zaza , Lue , Shelden Williams , maybe some Salim Stoudamire.....guys who offer little consistency but capable of big nites...

Over 208 Memphis {4units} : Didnt want to get to crazy because Raps last few at home have been reasonable ppg allowed .
1st Half Memphis +4.5 {2.5 units} +8 {2units} +310 ML {1/4unit}: What I posted last nite..

Boston +6 {2units} may add to : Basically dont trust TMac here being questionable and Ming still working his way back...Boston has some momentum winning 4 straight compared to Hous losers of 4 of 5 (bad road chalk as well) ...like Boston being on a homestand as compared to Hous flying all over the place..

Under 92.5 1st H Miami {2units}: Expecting ugly ball early. Remember teams are struggling to break 85 in Miami recently...

Bucks -3.5 {6units} : I think we have covered this...Kobe being out would be icicng on the cake'off'..LAL is 1-5 SU playing B2B vs ateam with 1 day rest....

GSW -6 {3units} : Big number but finally healthy GSW facing shorthanded Den on B2B..



Thoughts:
Still looking at Philly and Under 193
Heat -1 waiting on the line looking at 4 + units..They played well at Cle and Det teams Miami has beaten...and the mother of all revenge angles here
Utah -6 1st H(o198)...just think Indy doesnt have much to offer at the moment
Suns team over...117ish?? The Bobcats have allowed 120+ in 3 of 4 and last game of trip....
 
Btw, SN: Miami without Kapono as well. Do you think Shaq will keep his game level high from this point on? He's 35 after all... one sub par game from him and Miami lose hands down, as I really don't see anyone else to bail them out, Jones? Walker? Williams?

These guys are no scrubs but I don't see them compensating for the miss of Wade, Kapono AND a sub par Shaq (if he is sub par on a given night), I just like the Bulls here, would like to hear your thoughts on this.

:shake:
 
yeah at this point its perfect for Shaq. He is fresh. Only 20 games so far this year so fatigue not an issue anytime soon. Only really twice played 30 minutes or better...the heat schedule is favorable this being just 3rd game of March. I hate the kapono injury but they do have so many vets who could step up love the Eddie Jones signing , Jason Williams has been inconsistent since his return (more minutes can help find consistency), Posey , Walker , Payton , Zo this Miami team is so deep...

Thats the misconception that Miami is winning cause of Shaq. He was only a monster in the DET game and was solid in Wash. The other games just avg contribution. Its been the team effort especially on defense..Kapono hasnt done much since the break...I expect Posey and Walker to step up here.....

Chi has some banged up players in PJ Brown , Ben Wallace , Nocioni absence thisn the bench...its really the Gordon , Deng , Hinrich show...

A win by the Bulls tonight would give them their first season sweep of Miami since taking all four meetings in the 1991-92 season.

Just dont see why I owuld expect CHI to win on the road at this point at less then full strength. the Milw win was nice but they were also down 20 at one point. Miami is 10-1 SU past 11 at home...
 
I'm not saying they're winning "because of Shaq". I'm saying they would lose WITHOUT Shaq playing very well. That's a different thing. They were deep with Wade and Kapono in, but now their options are severely limited. Plus when I said Shaq not playing his best I didn't necessarily mean fatigue, he might come out and play a sub par game, why not? Before, Wade/Kapono/Haslem/Posey could jump in, now they're left with Haslem and Posey. Walker's numbers (and performances) have severely decreased looking back the last few seasons, so if Chicago are Deng-Hinrich-Gordon show (even though Wallace and Brown will play, unlike Kapono and Wade), what's Miami then?

I'm not trying to be cocky btw, just discussing, don't get me wrong. But I just don't see how Miami wins this one, provided Chicago doesn't have some huge letdown moment, which I don't see happening. I'm not being overconfident, I always leave a door open for a possible loss (my poor judgment), but I like this one a lot.
Miami 10-1 ATS at home? Yes but that was WITH Kapono and most of all with Wade. Chicago will get this game far more seriously than the one in Wisconsin, they would want to sweep the Heat, and if the Heat were healthy, I would be on them (possibly on a -5 hcap) but now with all these missings and winning 3 in a row (which makes them look as if they somehow compensated for the loss of Wade and are just "A OK") I like the Bulls even more.


Good luck tonight buddy.
 
I didnt say you said that but I feel thats the mindset of some. Of course they would probably lose w/o Shaq we are still talking about an elite NBA player but also a situation where the team is missing its other superstar. Take the two best players off every team and how many would be winning? I just disagree that Kapono's absence makes much of difference. They dont have a soft spot on the roster really .

Is Walker on the decline ..?? Sure he is but he just threw in 22 vs Det so why is the tank empty?? More then capable IMO... Thats the thing with Miami its not one guy. If Chi has one off nite of the trio then the other two must make it up. I have no problem thinking Eddie Jones , Jason Williams , James Posey , Antoine Walker , Shaquille O'neal , Gary Payton can put in 10+ pts tonite...that 6 guys who could easily get DD's..Haslem avgs 11 and Zo 9 ppg ...if Dorrell Wright and Chris Quinn are my 9th and 10 th guys off the bench they have had there moments as well...

The Bulls have a huge letdown moment every single road game they play. I just dont see whats change in there road play since the break??

PJ Brown will play but has played 14 , 7 , DNP and 16 minutes recently so he is still less then 100% I believe. Tyrus Thomas seems okay now playing 20 something minutes past two...Ben Wallace was a beat few games after the Break but has since be cooled off and now has ankle issues playing the biggest center in the league ,so that leaves CHI with Duhon , Griffin and Allen..

Your giving Kapono way to much credit. Take out the NYK game he is 4 of 25 from three after the break. His last 10 games scored more then 13 pts twice...I just dont see it...his absence is minimal. They beat Cle and DET two teams equal or better to Chi w/o Wade. Kapono 6 for 18 and 1-7 from three vs Cle for 17 pts. Then vs Det 1-7 and 0-2 from three for 2 pts...Like I said misconceptions abound here...

You think they will take this far more serious? You know how many times they have won in MILW in the past decade?It was Gordon's seventh straight game with at least 20 points and it helped give the Bulls a rare win in Milwaukee, where they lost 15 of the previous 16 times. That was before the last 2 wins..

You missed the 1st game in Chi where Wade got hurt and Shaq was out but Miami battled all evening.

Just think CHI getting way to much credit where nothing has changed. Just my take like you said no arrogance we could be wrong here....

I think you get the same effort from Miami here like you did vs Cle and Det. Kapono has virtual done nothing besides miss wide open threes since the break..this game IMO means everything to Miami...game 7 type deal for them...Eddie Jones guarding ben Gordon draws my interest...BOL
 
A lot of good points there, and I mean a lot. But some things I just don't agree with, Walker is a perennial scorer all of a sudden, a go to guy. Nah I don't buy it. He did score 22 in Det, but he could have another poor night and get back to his : season average.

So I don't need him to play extraordinary badly, I just need him NOT to step up big. Kapono's loss is minimal? how come you said before:

I hate the kapono injury
Click to expand...

and you said it twice. Perhaps you should be happy because Kapono is out since the punters will be on the Bulls and you have a possibly better line before tipoff. If I agreed with you on all points you mentioned (I do agree with some, but not all), I would be keen on thinking like that, and waiting for the line move and pound the hell out of Miami. At home. Against the widely known phenomenon: the cappers consensus. I don't see many guys on MIA tonight, and you know how these consensus games can be tricky. Sometimes we nail em but there are times...


I don't think you got my point about Shaq. He is healthy, fired up, on the climb since he was out for half of the season, etc... I'm saying if he DOESN'T do his job it would be tough for Zo and Haslem to overcome that.

Bulls were losing in Milwaukee for years? And they climbed back from a huge deficit, I see them fired up tonight, ready to keep the streak going. I was on the Milk against them, remember....:D

I like how Bulls have played this season, even though I haven't backed them enough this season, somehow feel I went more against them than on them. But that was mostly due to other factors.

You say Kapono's absence is minimal and they have depth so they can overcome Wade. But there is a difference between losing a guy and playing without him for the first or second time, to what Bulls have with Nocioni. These guys were without him for the most of February. I somehow feel they managed to adapt a bit, even though it would be better if they had him of course.


I'm not one of the guys jumping on a bet against a team that is undermanned or losing a guy, but situations like this change the deal, I agree with Killa when he said that in most situations a team is prone to fall apart after a few games without their leading man, not straight away. And basically Chicago has beat them 3 times already, I don't see a "must win" situation for either of the teams.
I just see Chicago being a more complete team at the moment and a possible not so brilliant game for Shaq. But this isn't based on anything else than my personal call, it's not a fan call since I couldn't care less about these teams, it's all about the wallet, but I somehow feel Heat drop this one.


Anyways, good discussing with you as always. :shake: :cheers:
 
I think in some ways you only looking at stats. Sure Antoine Walker isnt the player he used to be. He also used to be a guy who played 40 minutes anite and took 20 shots. So to me alot of Walkers demise is due to opportunity. The guy is 30/31 and not over the hill in any stretch. Two seasons ago he was dropping 18 a game since he came to Miami he saw a role reduction something that maybe a guy like him who needs alot of shots to get in sync cant adjust to. The DET game to me was about opportunity not a flash in the pan. He had 9 of 11 games in JAN see 10+ ppg but Feb saw his minutes cut fruther to about the 15 minute or so range..now last 2 games he has played alot which is a huge benefit. I dont expect Walker to score 8 points nor do I 22 but somewhere in the middle. He is a Chicago boy BTW but that hasnt helped himin his career vs Chicago. The thing about Walker is Sunday he had 20 then Monday it was Eddie Jones dropping 20 , furthering my point about the depth and team aspect of the Heat.

Why did I say that cause Kapono is the type guy who out of nowhere can be lights out and score 25. I would always to have that hidden aspect on my team. Its one less gun I have at my disposal. Not cause I expect anything from him. Reality is he is 8 of 30 since the break from 3pt range which is why he plays and 4 of 5 came in 1 game...so he is near useless when he is not hitting jumpers. Jason Kapono is NOT moving any lines and shouldnt be changing anyone's decision about which side to play.

Why wont Shaq do the job..?? I dont understand that angle. I did point its not him leading the way so somehow they are picking up the slack and you agree. The 3 home games vs DET and Ben Wallace last postseason Shaq had 27,21 and 28 . Only hitting 31 of 41 from the floor. Only grabbing 37 rebounds.. So why I am expecting Shaq to have a bad game and why if he hasnt been the leader in Miami wins recently would you say they cant pick up the slack? I understand the question u pose but dont see how if yo agree with me Shaq hasnt been the sole reson Miami is winning it would be relevant.

The point about MILW is you made it seem like they didnt care and just turned it on. What happened was Adrian Griffin was able to shutdown Michael Redd and a very medicore MILW team could not score. My point was if you were 1-15 SU at a place before this season would u take a game there lightily? Milw also lead in the same fashion in th 1st meeting with many absences. If you dont think Miami is psyched up here then I dont know what to say. They were embarrassed by 42 on OPening Nite when they were supposed to be celebrating there Championship. The next time they met in Chi ther was no SHAQ and Wade played 6 minutes and yet as 5.5 pt dogs they lost by 6....that tells me CHI games mean alot to them...

I think injury situations are different from every standpoint. There is no clear cut way to look at it.

We shall see tonite....its definetly a game with angles for both sides. I'll take the veteran team gettinmg embarrassed on there biggest nite in a PK spot at home...Miami is great at stepping up shorthanded IMO...I already pointed the 1st meeting in CHI how about that NYK game at home when Wade missed and Miami won by 20...???

Good discussion we have our points. Bottomline is Miami has won 10 of 11 at home with varying degrees of health and Chi still isnt a good road team at 11-19. Throw in the revenge aspect and I liek my chances...BOL bro
 
SN, I didn't say Shaq not playing well is an angle, just my gut feeling (not to be included in the discussion since it's not an in game based element) and by not "playing well" I meant having a sub par night, not necessarily going 1-11 FG, as that's impossible at the position he's playing. I just feel if he scores like 18 and gets 9 boards Miami will be in trouble, but let's wait and see, perhaps I'm wrong.


Just feel as if too many things have to click in the undermanned Heat team for them to win this one while Chicago has more options, just the way I see it. Again, you were much more convincing in this discussion than I was, for a neutral reader, since you're more experienced and more into the league, hard for me to know that Walker is a Chicago boy being from Europe you miss out on a lot of things :D.

Hey, that's why I'm blazing on futbol these days (soccer), in a thread nobody even reads except for a couple of guys :D.

Happy days for my Reds (see avatar :D).

Good luck tonight SN. :shake:

I'm on Bucks 1st half (-4,5) btw.
 
i would be cautious to bet against the bulls after the all-star break. also, the miami heat kicked us out of the playoffs last year and we havent forgot that either.

i say its bulls or nothing. seems like the oddsmakers are leaning that way, too, IMO.

good luck on all others your playing.
 
what up ya'll im from chicago and i love the bulls more than anything. i think brewers is right about oddsmakers leaning toward the bulls, but i bet on the heat tonight. hey yo nut, i got a wagerline streak of 8 and goin for 9 on the wiz kids tonight. i hope gilbert is feeling better and continues being the sharp shooter that he is. gl to evrybody tonight, lets make money
 
Not sure Smh...I eyed this up with Cakeoff at like 1 in the morning hoping it would unfold like this and it has. So not sure I should middle...maybe if I got 10/10.5..cause that would be greedy.....

Good Luck jimbo. YOu sound in better spirits today. Pulling for you on wagerline and of course Miami to upend ur Bulls.

Brewers unsure of why you say the linesmakers lean this way? I had this at Miami PK /-1. I just dont see much improvement from CHI since the break. They beat some teams not playing well at home and did do a nice job on the road @ Det and Cle but both have been inconsistent. Has everyone forgot that Orlando went to Chi and won..in a tough spot but still? I am on Miami juts a matter of size I havent seen a compelling angle for Chi yet.....but maybe I am blind...BOL

Truts me Satyr I know what your getting at. I think this is a game that his juices will be flowing so to speak...18 and 9 isnt so bad....was looking for 22,23 and 9..I guess the difference lies in your belief Chi has more options it has only 3 good ones Hinrich , Deng and Gordon...but may I play a Gordon or Deng prop as a hedge.....I am not trying to convince only state my side of the story....

Yeah I am not a soccer /futbol guy..Keep up the good work the word will spread....BOL
 
Has everyone forgot that Orlando went to Chi and won..in a tough spot but still?

we match up terribly with orlando IMO. also, if you look at the games that we have lost they have a reoccuring theme, besides the fact that most were road games, in that teams that have dominant frontline's abuse us.
 
I never meant you were trying to persuade someone into changing their play, I meant your writeups are so convincing, sometimes I have to slap myself to get my thinking straight, as your posts sometimes tamper with my mind :D, when I'm on the other side that is :D

:cheers:
 
I think matchups can be overrated...thats playing the game on paper talk. Its about execution..not trying to be an ass here just my take on the subject. teams have mismatches every nite but do they expose them? Or does some midget hit 7 threes you didnt expect...BOL tonite
 
Satyr said:
I never meant you were trying to persuade someone into changing their play, I meant your writeups are so convincing, sometimes I have to slap myself to get my thinking straight, as your posts sometimes tamper with my mind :D, when I'm on the other side that is :D

:cheers:
Click to expand...


I actually meant that for anyone else. I didnt want anyone to think I was trying to convince people Miami was the play cause its such a tight game...:cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :bow:
 
my boy dorell wright should get some PT:cheers:

i remember miami almost beat chicago this season without wade and shaq it came down to the final minute but the home team came out with the W
 
Props :

Under Ray Allen 25.5 -115 pts{2units} -2.30
B2B could be an issue and his stroke was hot and cold last nite. Mobility was okay...rough spot here iMO.....

Over 27.5 -110 Rashard Lewis {1unit} -1.10
Think he is the obvious beneficiary

Over 22 -135 pts Ben Gordon {2 units} pending

I want to pound this but it looks to easy..

Over 26.5 P+R Deng -115{1unit}
Cause he is option #2 in Chi and he needs to play well somewhathedges my Heat play

Over 30 P+R Shaq -110 {1unit} +1.00
Looking for at least 8 or 9 boards and 20 -24 pts , hit some FTs please

Over 34 -115 P+R Amare {1unit}
Nobody should be able to guard him on Charlotte

Team Totals -115

Under 97 LAL {3units}
Over 117.5 Suns 2units}
Under 91.5 Bulls {1.5units}
 
Last edited:
thecakeoff said:
my boy dorell wright should get some PT:cheers:

i remember miami almost beat chicago this season without wade and shaq it came down to the final minute but the home team came out with the W
Click to expand...

That was the 1st meeting in Chi the 2nd meeting they lost by 3 thanks to a 4th quarter rally...and the ass raping CHI handed out in the opener by 42 down in MIAMI.....I like Dorrell Wright inconsistent PT has hurt him.:cheers:
 
The Card

Wed nite :

Wizards -2.5 {2units} & -3 {1unit} -3.30
Over 208 Memphis {4units} -4.40
Grizz +4.5 1st H {3units} -3.30 +8 {2units} +2.00 ML +310 {1/4 unit}-0.25
Philly -3 {3units} PUSH
Under 97 or 97.5 1st Half Philly {2units} +2.00
Celtics +6 {2units } -2.20
Under 92.5 1st Half Chicago {2units} -2.20
Heat -1-105 or PK {5units} +5.00
Cavs +5 {2.5units} ML +190 {1/2unit} +3.45
Bucks -3.5 {6units} may middle some... +5.00
GSW -6 {3units}
Over 198 Indy {3 units}


Why not Bucks ML , GSW ML , Wash ML parlay, West Mich ML & NYY ML pays at least 4.40 to 1.....:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Good luck, SN. Thanks for posting the prop plays, as well. Was on Stoudemire over 34 and liked seeing it on your card.
 
i think i saw that wizards missed like 7 layups in the fourth quarter, I CANT FUCKIN BELIEVE THIS
 
touc said:
yep, nice to be on the right side of one for a change :)
Click to expand...

Yes it was...that was a shame for Tor backers I will be the 1st to admit it. Though I did pay it back with Sixers pushing thanks iggy missy a FT late...Philly led the entire way...it owuld be nice to get the gift and not give any...
 
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