2008 cfb -- time to post my bowl card so far--updated card post 277

Kyle, it will take me my whole Friday to catchup with this thread, great stuff here man.

NCST+7:

We've been paying attention to this team all year. They've made great strides as they've gotten more experienced and got some guys from injury back. RU got hot as well, most recently making LVille look like a girls preschool powder puff team. I wonder how that game would of changed if Ville doesn't fumble on the inch line, they quit after that, but, regardless RU has shown great improvement all year as well. I'm really impressed with the wins over Miami, UNC, & Wake to end the year for NCST and both of these coaches are great. O'Brien had proven bowl record at BC and he's getting his first shot at State. I'm expecting a lot of points in this game though because both offenses are going to have succes on each other imo. Wilson's versatility with his legs will be an issue for RU because State runs the ball very effectively as well. RU is going to find their success in the air because their WR's are very talented. NCST might be able to get some pressure on Teel but I think he has a pretty good game. With these teams coming in so hot I would be inclined to take the points but I really like the Over 53. I see this game getting near 60, like 34-27
 
thanks guys .. dont know if i can lay it with georgia .. might use it in a teaser though. going abck and forth on it which as most of you know , usually means i dont play it.

writeups will be short from here forward with quick blurbs on why i am playing a particular side as opposed to the more detailed ones ihave done so far .. just the time pressures of the holiday season and my inability to type fast.
 
Recent information regarding the Wake Forest/Navy game. I do not recall seeing it.

In looking Harris only ran once for 3 yds and 1 reception for 6 yds in the first meeting.
Harris heads back to starting role in Wake Forest backfield

http://www.thetimesnews.com/articles/starting_20986___article.html/backfield_wake.html



December 17, 2008 - 5:56 PM
Bob Sutton / Times-News

<!-- Video goes here -->WINSTON-SALEM - It hasn't been easy for Kevin Harris to figure out his role with the Wake Forest football team this year.
How's starting tailback sound?

Mired on the depth chart among a bunch of running backs - at fullback and then returning to tailback - Harris went long stretches when he was rarely in the offensive huddle. For Saturday's EagleBank Bowl against Navy, he'll be atop the depth chart again.

"I can turn a new leaf and let them know I've still got it," he said.
Harris, a redshirt junior, held this role two seasons ago before injuries and position alterations interfered.

Then almost out of nowhere, he gave the Demon Deacons an energy boost with 36 yards on seven carries in the regular-season finale against Vanderbilt. With running backs Brandon Pendergrass and Josh Adams nursing injuries, Harris latched onto the opportunity after only two carries in the previous 11 games combined.

"In Kevin's case, he was too up and down," coach Jim Grobe said. "One day he was kind of bouncing around and feeling good about himself. The next day he's kind of down in the dumps. You learn in this deal that coaches are looking for consistency, not only consistent effort, but consistent attitude day to day. I think Kevin has developed that through the school of hard knocks."

Grobe called the jolt from Harris "a blessing" in the Vanderbilt game.
For Harris, it came as a surprise. He hadn't taken a handoff with the first-team unit in two or three weeks of practice.

"It's rough," he said. "I guess you've got to wait your turn and grind it out. I tried, before every game, to take the mindset to be ready and that something could happen.

"I've come to find out that college football is a lot about waiting your turn. I started out the season a fullback, had a good game against Ole Miss and Florida State and then died out a little bit."

Just when it looked like there might not be many good memories for Harris, he put his memory to use when he was summoned against Vanderbilt.
"I know all the plays from two years ago," he said. "I used to know what was my job and now you have to wait and see. There are other guys in the rotation."

Grobe said there was a feel-good aspect to Harris' re-emergence.
"I think our players were cheering for him," Grobe said. "I think they were having fun watching him run the football and having some success. Hopefully, that will continue. Probably what's happening to him right now is he's seeing that, ‘Hey, this really is a competitive deal. When you do good, you get another chance.' "

Grobe called the decision to elevate Harris, whose 40 rushing yards this year rank eighth on the team, a battlefield promotion. "You know how much I love Brandon Pendergrass and Josh Adams," the coach said.
Harris had been used as a wide-out in the spread offense until that was scrapped midway through the season. By early November, he was switched from fullback back to tailback. But apparently he dropped behind C.J. Washington, a redshirt freshman walk-on, when the Demon Deacons needed a running back to give Pendergrass a spell in a couple of games last month.

While Adams, who was the 2007 Atlantic Coast Conference Rookie of the Year, and Pendergrass, who's dealing with an ankle injury, are more likely to be described as slashing runners, Harris doesn't embrace that type of flair. He's not looking to make cutbacks or cute steps.

"North and south," he said of his style. "Nothing pretty out of me."
Harris gained 378 yards and scored six touchdowns as a freshman when Wake Forest won the ACC championship. He didn't play in bowl games the past two years because of late-season injuries.

Yet it's not as if Harris' contributions have been nonexistent this year, albeit infrequent. He caught a touchdown pass against Mississippi in the home opener after lining up at tight end. He made a third-down reception on the game-winning drive against Clemson.

But he hasn't been a main component in the offensive plan. He said he's excited about the opportunity this week, though he realizes there are no guarantees.

"I don't know how it's going to turn out," Harris said. "But I didn't know how it was going to turn out for the Vanderbilt game."
 
thanks jude.

important since wake was held to 43 yards on 31 carries the first time around.

will be interesting to see how this pans out as far as number of carries goes.
 
I will not be putting a unit on anything in the las vegas bowl but for those betting it , the byu players seem to think the cold weather here and recent snow will benefit them vs the desert team from Arizona. Will try to get a gameday weather report out when the time comes.
 
Going to use bullet points of why I am playing and then some of my concerns with the play

Reasons I like usm
--I feel this team is peaking right now , especially the defense. USM has given up a total of 35 points over their last four games combined. They won all four of those games and have come together as a team behind first year coach fedora. I think you can give them a bit of a pass on the earlier season issues as they were in a little transition period

--speaking of the coaching transition… the usm program took a lot of heat for the way they handled removing Brower last year. I think that makes winning the bowl game a priority for this program. Time to get this thing moving in the right direction. In my opinion , while there are better teams this year than usmin conference usa … usm is the class program of this conference and has been for awhile.

--This will be the third time in five years that usm has played in this bowl game. Logistically , this should help the team. They won the ‘04 game over North Texas 31-10 and they won the ‘05 game 31-19 over Arkansas state. Both of those schools obviously are sunbelt schools. I like the teams familiarity with the venue.

--Unless I missed a game , Conference USA went 7-1 vs. the sunbelt this year for conference dominance. In addition two of usm wins were vs. sunbelt teams Arkansas state and ULL who are two of the better sunbelt teams this year. The eagles won those games by a combined score of 78-45. I find it also important to note that usm played those two teams when they were playing their better foorball. Troy also beat them but later in the year when ULL and Arkansas state were playing a lesser brand. The lone sunbelt win came with FAU over UAB , the CUSA worst team. Again , I looked over the schedules so I may have missed a game between
conferences somewhere and please correct me if my tabulation is wrong.

--southern miss has been competitive in their losses. Vs utep they out gained the mighty miners 541-382 losing in overtime. They caught marshall when marshall was playing their best football and outgained the herd despite giving up a flukish 80 yard td run to the opponent. They lost by 7 there. They lost 24-7 to boise st giving the broncos one of their tougher games of the year. They were stopped on downs at the broncos 21 near the end fo the third quarter , stopped on downs at the boise 34 in the fourth quarter and intercepted on the boise 19 .. So they were capable of moving the ball and did have 278 yards against the stout boise Defense. They were outplayed by rice and auburn but were competitive in those games as well. I just think this team is coming together and have not shown the want to get their doors blown off. I also think the type of offense they have will leave backdoors open if they do fall behind though I actually like them to win straight up.

--when the line was released , it was still questionable sas to whether usm would be with superstar receiver De’Andre Brown but he will be eligible to play in the New Orleans bowl after all. Still the line has moved the other direction.

--Troy plays a good brand of defense but they have been aided by the types of opponents they have faced. They actually are vulnerable vs. the pass. They played two decent pass offenses this year that rate near what usm brings to the table in Oklahoma state and FAU. Okie st threw for 254 yards and fau threw for 283 yards. North texas also sort of qualifies as a decent pass attack and they had 246 yards of passing offense. Fiu the next best and they had 266. What Troy does is defend the run well in a run happy conference or a pass deficient conference. Much will be made of their performance against tosu in what was a dream spot for troy with the bucks coming off of the usc loss and starting pryor for the first time. This is arguably the best group of receivers that they play all year though one might give a nod to okie st. usm , ina ddition to the talented Brown has a solid receiver in Gerald Baptiste and one of the best tight ends this season in cfb with shawn nelson. Throw in the number of balls flethcer gets in the screens , swings and wheels and I think usm can really move the ball on troy through the air. This is one of those things that I think you need to look at when examining the season stats of teams. Usm pass defense by stat is worse than troys by quite a bit … but one team is playing in pass happy cusa and the other in more run happy sunbelt .. In fact I think the sunbelt is kind of offensively challenged in a lot of ways.

--Damian fletcher running the ball gives usm the most balanced attack since Oklahoma state whothey couldn’t stop. I don’t think Oklahoma st punted once because of the troy defense. They punted once in the first quarter because the cowboys had ten yards of penalties on a set of downs and were faced with fourth and five … and they punted with 3 minutes to go in the fourth while running out the clock with a 31 point lead. Now ,I am not saying usm offense is aa powerful as Oklahoma state but I am saying that this is the offense that most resembles usm that troy has faced. Incredible balance. We all know about fletcher who has been good for a few years now …he has over 1200 yards this year and averages over 6 yards per carry. I just think this type of balance and speed is something that troy has not had to face a lot of this year. I also think that some of Troys offensive stats can be attributed to the fact they could stop weak sunbelt offenses.

-- I like the time to prepare for troy schemes

--third downs. Usm has been very solid all year at getting into manageable third downs and converting. Troy on the other hand has struggled at times with conversions , especially on the road. I think it is of special note that usm succeeded at will on third down vs. the sunbelt this year converting 19 of 33 times or an amazing rate of 57.6%.

-Ok now some of the concerns
--Troy balance offensively vs. usm subpar defense. I do think this is mitigated by a couple of factors the main one being how much better they played down the stretch. But it is a concern that Troy averages 421 yards a game and usm gives it up at 368 a game. Jernigan can get open and make big plays for troy as can Kennard Burton. Levi Brown is a decent enough qb I guess but I am not a huge fan. His numbers and production cant be overlooked though. They did lose a something with their running game when Hampton went down with a leg injury vs. fau earlier in the year and Brown simply doesn’t make up for that. DuJuan Harris has had a good year with over a thousand yards rushing. Troy has a lot of depth at wr and that is going to give usm problems and blakeney doesn’t mind abandoning the run if the pass is what he thinks will get the job done .. See the lsu game where they threw the ball 72 times and called even more pass plays than that. It's ahrd to have a ton of confidence in this usm defense.

--penalties. Usm is atrocious at committing them

--special teams. Troy has one of the best kick coverage units in the country and usm kicker barefoot is less than reliable.

--troy defense -- … usm has played just four really good defenses this year with boise st , auburn, ucf and east carolina. They averaged just 14.5 points per game in those contests and troy is certainly a capable defense. They only give up 320 yards ag ame or so. Again , I think they have shown some hidden vulnerability when faced with teams with balance that can pass but this is one of the better defenses that usm will have faced this year. Brandon Lang has been a monster for troy with 10.5 sacks this year and usm allows over two a game so I would expect troy to get to the qb a couple of times int his one. Boris lee and bear woods are also excellent tacklers. The troy defense plays with an attitude and is good at creating timely turnovers.

--last years snub. I think troy really got screwed last year when they were not offered a bowl bid despite going 8-4 last year. It was insane. I am not sure if this will motivate them to prove themselves but it may. I think less so since they got the automatic for winning the conference but it atleast has to be considered.

--coaching experience. Blakeney has been at troy for something like 18 years. Fedora is a first year coach in his first bowl game.


I am sure I left a lot out , especially on the concerns side fo the equation but I hope that helps explain what I am looking at. I think this is a game that really goes down to the wire , and in that scenario getting 5 seems more than generous to me. bowl games tend to be more open and i like the athletes on usm offense compared to what troy has seen most of the year. sort of like usm on the moneyline but i am gonna go with the safer play.

usm +5 boom.
 
E.T.G. said:
Kyle, it will take me my whole Friday to catchup with this thread, great stuff here man.

NCST+7:

We've been paying attention to this team all year. They've made great strides as they've gotten more experienced and got some guys from injury back. RU got hot as well, most recently making LVille look like a girls preschool powder puff team. I wonder how that game would of changed if Ville doesn't fumble on the inch line, they quit after that, but, regardless RU has shown great improvement all year as well. I'm really impressed with the wins over Miami, UNC, & Wake to end the year for NCST and both of these coaches are great. O'Brien had proven bowl record at BC and he's getting his first shot at State. I'm expecting a lot of points in this game though because both offenses are going to have succes on each other imo. Wilson's versatility with his legs will be an issue for RU because State runs the ball very effectively as well. RU is going to find their success in the air because their WR's are very talented. NCST might be able to get some pressure on Teel but I think he has a pretty good game. With these teams coming in so hot I would be inclined to take the points but I really like the Over 53. I see this game getting near 60, like 34-27
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I see a similar game on its face etg. but for some reason i am getting scared on this one. i could see so many ways for this game to play out. i could see either team blowing the other out , i could see either team winning a close one. That is why i lean the points. i still cant figure out how i lay off but i am still looking for a reason. i think the total is about right and wont be betting that. higher than most of these two teams lined games this year but for a reason as you say. will have more as it approaches....
 
thank you sir...watched my last game film of the year, just finishing up with the last twenty minutes of ESPN's Bowl Mania...I know those shows are cheezy but I watch them anyway...

more importantly, Employee of the Month is on deck for tomorrow evening...big Dane Cook fan...
 
kyle asked me to do a cameo write-up in his thread and I'm honored to do so...for those of you that have read my write-ups before, I'm just going to go with my rough draft style (like many of my posts) vs. the finished product I usually put out over at SBR...hopefully that's ok with you guys...

La. Tech is a team that I've followed very closely the past two years, with me being in WAC country and the dang Altitude network on my Direct TV or ESPN360 always seeming to show their games every week...I like what Vince Dooley Jr. has done with this program since taking over two years ago...his team is well coached and he has quietly put together an offense full of playmakers...I really like the coaching decision he made in replacing QB Taylor Bennett with Ross Jenkins...Jenkins completes a much better percentage of his passes, and has 7 TDs to 3 INT, and most importantly doesn't throw every ball at the receiver's feet like Bennett does...I really like WR/KR Phil Livas...known as "Saturday Night Livas" by most in Ruston, Louisiana the kid is a flat-out playmaker...he's not real big, but he has good hands and is extremely explosive...look for him to take a catch to the house as well as set La. Tech up with good field position via the return game...Phillip Beck is a veteran receiver and his numbers also got a lot better when Jenkins started playing (hell none of the receivers had any numbers really with Bennett as the QB)...RB Daniel Porter was banged up to end the season but should be fully healthy for this one and Patrick Jackson adds excellent depth to the La. Tech backfield (16 rushing TD's between the two and they both catch the ball out of the backfield well)...defensively La. Tech has a good run defense and I look for them to contain the NIU running game...this game is being played in Shreveport, La. (near my old stomping grounds of Centenary College) and there will be a significant home field crowd as Ruston is a half our to 45 mins. east and the La. Tech fans are happy to have their team in a bowl...the NIU QB is young and this team has scored in the teens three of their last five games (and in one of the other games they had six points total half way through the third quarter vs. CMU)...I feel these guys are an offensively challenged football team who relies heavily upon the run (again which La. Tech matches up well with)...Dooley will force Harnish to beat them, and I'm not sure he can...going with La. Tech and the points here...
 
Thanks a lot pags.

Trying to get all my thoughts down on paper isn't easy for each of these games so i asked pags to do a writeup of one of the games we agreed on. Louisiiana Tech is a team that he has been one of those teams ( nc state also ) that pags , for whatever reason , just seems to have a very strong feel for this year. I appreciate your help in my thread this bowl season pags.

I will probably spend more time on this in my year end thread but i think now is a good time to thank some people for their help to me this year. Pags is a guy that i have spent hours and hours on the phone with talking college football and sharing angles with this year. He is without a doubt one of the best cfb cappers you will find. Also spent time capping over the phone with Sirwinzalot , Gyneicologist , voiceofreason , and Texasfight. All are top notch football guys. I also want to give some other special shout outs. Rjesq , has the best football thread on the internet .. i cant tell you how many times i visit his weekly threads for the latest injuries and news from a wide variety of sources. Just a lot of information at your fingertips. I want to thank some locals as well. My friend matt who has a lot of outs that i do not have that enables me to get down at the best possible numbers. You are good at what you do my friend and there were a couple games this year where getting the best of the number either made us or saed us money. Want to thank my firends mike and andy for allowing me use of their database information if i requested some information. I want to thank BAR and hunt for answering all my PM's thsi year regarding michigan and bigten football. I want to thank just about everyone here at CTG. I said when i made my first post of this thread that this forum comes alive for bowl season ... i think we all see the quality of what is going on here and it only gets better as the bowl season progresses. I also want to give a shout out to our resident fcs guys hoopstarr and Bull. Those threads are a couple of the most underappreciated on the forum because we all cant get down on those games but they are threads i make a point of reading each week. Since the regular season ended , i have been having detailed conversations through PM with CrimsonK and really wish he had started posting here a little earlier in the year. great bowl thread he has already.

Finally i want to thank every person who took the time to post in my threads this year. i think we shared a lot of information with one another to help us each make more money than we otherwise might have.

Alright i dont want it to sound like the thread is over or the season is over but wanted to give some credit out there to people who made my cfb life easier. i know i obviously didnt mention everyone but what can you do ?

so lets talk football !!!!
 
pags,

great write up. I agree 100% that LaTech will force Harnish to beat them through the air, which I'm not confident that he will be able to do. I haven't seen Jenkins play live at QB this seaosn but I saw plent of Bennett at GT because I live in ATL. I would assume that just about anybody would be considered an upgrade from him. I played the UNDER 47.5 mainly due to the fact that I think both teams strengths offensively play right into the strengths of the defenses. I know that La Tech is better defending the run and NIU is better against the pass. I have seen several NIU games and they don't push the pace a whole lot from what i have seen. They just don't seem to be a big play team offensively. Do you think that La Tech will be run heavy or a bit more balanced with an improved passing game with Jenkins? Thanks in advance
 
Kyle- absolutely awsome stuff. You deserve to go 34-0 in the bowls. In all honesty, I checked in about an hour and a half ago and have not quite reached Page 3 yet !!
Wife beckons so I have to help with XMas shopping.

I'd like to add one counterpoint. Nevada-Maryland.
You mention that Nevada losing to New Mex in last year's bowl as part of the motivtional angle favoring Nevada. I do think that this is partly negated by Maryland team coming off a losing bowl game also. Finally, another poster in this thread commented on I think another game and said he didn't like to bet on teams coming off a losing game in the bowls. I have that feeling as well.
Of course, the other side of the equation is that the team may have sort of packed it in. So in the UM-UN game, the Terps either win on better class and talent or they lay an egg. I haven't decided which yet.
I have decided on one game and that's Wake.
Best of luck to you. You've had a few tuff beats this year, and I'd like to see you come away a big winner.
bull
 
bull said:
Kyle- absolutely awsome stuff. You deserve to go 34-0 in the bowls. In all honesty, I checked in about an hour and a half ago and have not quite reached Page 3 yet !!
Wife beckons so I have to help with XMas shopping.

I'd like to add one counterpoint. Nevada-Maryland.
You mention that Nevada losing to New Mex in last year's bowl as part of the motivtional angle favoring Nevada. I do think that this is partly negated by Maryland team coming off a losing bowl game also. Finally, another poster in this thread commented on I think another game and said he didn't like to bet on teams coming off a losing game in the bowls. I have that feeling as well.
Of course, the other side of the equation is that the team may have sort of packed it in. So in the UM-UN game, the Terps either win on better class and talent or they lay an egg. I haven't decided which yet.
I have decided on one game and that's Wake.
Best of luck to you. You've had a few tuff beats this year, and I'd like to see you come away a big winner.
bull
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DRbob just made it tougher to back nevada .. might grab it locally but i dont want to rush into the decision either.

and i agree the fact that terps lost last years bowl game makes them more dangerous here than they might otherwise be. It's not like the loss to the beaver alst year was disgraceful either ... oregon st was a damn good team.
 
kyle,

thanks very much brother...I appreciate your kind words and am also happy to take part in your bowl thread...keep up the great work this bowl season and for many years to come...

crimsonk,

I do anticipate La. Tech having balance on offense, as they showed more and more as Jenkins has gained experience...Livas has started to catch TDs and Beck is making some plays as well...as I mentioned before both Jackson and Porter catch the ball well out of the backfield...GL bud...
 
pags11 said:
kyle,

thanks very much brother...I appreciate your kind words and am also happy to take part in your bowl thread...keep up the great work this bowl season and for many years to come...

crimsonk,

I do anticipate La. Tech having balance on offense, as they showed more and more as Jenkins has gained experience...Livas has started to catch TDs and Beck is making some plays as well...as I mentioned before both Jackson and Porter catch the ball well out of the backfield...GL bud...
Click to expand...



i will be adding latech in a day or two. drbob influenced the line some ( i think ) and i am hoping it goes back to where it was but will settle for it at the current number if i have to. thanks again for the writeup.
 
Kyle as usual--thank you for so much time and effort to initiate this thread and discussion.

Great stuff here guys, I have been slammed at work and home, so I have just had the opportunity to sort through the thread last night.

As has been mentioned, special weight needs to be given to motivation and coaching when handicapping the bowls. If you are on the Wake side, I don't think motivation is going to be an issue.


By Dan Collins
JOURNAL REPORTER
Published: December 19, 2008
When quarterback Riley Skinner of Wake Forest sprouted a beard while preparing for Saturday's bowl game against Navy, it wasn't just to hide his face.
For that, he would have been 2½ months too late.
Sept. 27, when the Deacons played the Midshipmen at BB&T Field, wasn't the best day of Skinner's life. As a college football player, it was his worst.
Skinner, a junior quarterback whose overall record as a starter is 25-11, threw a career high four interceptions that day -- only one fewer than his entire freshman season. He also lost a fumble for good measure.
The Deacons lost 24-17.
"It's all on me," Skinner said afterward.
Coach Jim Grobe disagreed, saying a porous offensive line and some slippery fingered receivers had to share the blame. He said as recently as this week that the coaching staff might have been complicit as well for putting too much of a load on Skinner.
"It was probably our fault as much as anything," Grobe said. "I think we tried to stress to the offense how important it was to make first downs and be productive, and Riley probably felt too much pressure to make big plays and work the ball down the field and be a superhero.
"We had a lot of open receivers we didn't take advantage of, probably because we stressed too much how important it was to match Navy's production."
But Skinner, as late as Tuesday, was firm on his opinion. He actually completed 26 of 40 passes against Navy for a season-high 270 yards and a touchdown, but much of his reputation as one of the best quarterbacks to ever play for Wake Forest has been his ability to avoid interceptions.
The Midshipmen converted two of the interceptions into touchdowns, and a third into a field goal, which along with extra points accounted for 17 of their 24 points.
The memory still galls him today, and serves as a motivation for the EagleBank Bowl set to kick off at 11 a.m. Saturday at RFK Stadium in Washington.
"If you're a quarterback and you've had that kind of game -- the worst game of your career -- you'd be crazy if you didn't want another shot at them," Skinner said. "As much as I have hated watching the film the last two weeks over and over again, it kind of gives you a little motivation and urgency to get back out there and go play these guys again -- and kind of prove something and get a little revenge.
"So I'm really excited to get on the field Saturday."
One of Skinner's goals going into the season was to cut down on his number of interceptions, which swelled from five as a freshman to 13 as a sophomore. Wake Forest has a record of 18-3 in games that Skinner didn't throw an interception, and a mark of 7-8 in those games that he did.
He succeeded by throwing 12, but a quarter of those came against one team.
With one game and another season remaining, Skinner ranks first at Wake Forest with a career passing efficiency rating of 130.87 and a career completion percentage of .670. He ranks fourth with 6,436 career passing yards and third with 628 career completions.
By completing 10 passes against Navy, he would move into second place ahead of Gary Schofield. He remains 38 shy of the Deacons' all-time leader, Brian Kuklick.
Skinner said he was encouraged by the offensive performance in the final game of the regular season, when the Deacons rushed for 158 yards and passed for 173 in a 23-10 victory against Vanderbilt.
With a similar display of balance in the rematch against Navy, Skinner will have a greater chance of avenging the worst game of his career.
"I think toward the end of the season we kind of found a balance," Skinner said. "It became pretty much a mixture of everything we tried all throughout the season. The last four games kind of emphasized that."
"I like where the offense is right now. Everyone's got a pretty good grasp of it. Obviously it's the end of the season. If you don't have a grasp of it by now, there's no chance. But I think we're in a good spot, and I think we'll be able to go Saturday."
■ Dan Collins can be reached at 727-7323 or at dcollins@wsjournal.com.

Late to the game here, as most everyone has handicapped and made their plays.

A few thoughts to add to the discussion:

---Still concerned about the health of Swank and Adams and now Pendergrass. Strange to me Grobe is starting Harris at RB if Adams and Pendergrass are ready. Here is a quote from Grobe:

Grobe said that both (Adams and Pendergrass) should be available Saturday.
"They're semi-healthy," Grobe said. "Brandon actually sprained his ankle again in practice. We're going to have to start charging these guys for tape. It's amazing how much tape we're putting on these guys' ankles.
"I think Josh is probably as healthy as he has been in awhile."

I still haven't been able to get confirmation of Swank's health. If he plays, we can't be for certain that he is the 50 yard FG kicking Swank that has been such a weapon through the years. If Swank is only able to kick 35 yarders and Grobe is going for it on 4th down from the opponents 30 yard line (like Wake has done the 2nd half of the year), then it really doesn't matter if Swank is playing or not.

--Kaipo at QB for Navy scares me if I am a Deac backer. Kaipo understands the offense better than Dobbs and Bryant--see the Army game. Kyle's "sneaky bad" is an apt description so far this year, but Kaipo hasn't been healthy all year. I am not so sure that description fits with a healthy Kaipo. Yes, Kaipo played the first Wake game, but it seems that his hamstring is much better this time around, if not better than it has been all year.

--This Navy team made me money the last few seasons in the bowls. No Paul Johnson this year though, which is a big factor in my opinion. Going against Navy in a bowl game is not my preference, but besides the Kaipo factor and some injury questions for the Deacs, most everything points to Wake.

--This is the 3rd time in the last 1 1/2 seasons that Wake has played Navy. Grobe is an excellent coach, one has to think he is both familar and prepared for the Navy's unique offense, as is the veteran Wake Defense. Not only is Grobe armed with 2 weeks to prepare, but he has 2 sets of game film against his particular team.

As I handicpped this game, I can't get past the motivation angle. Revenge is overweighted many times in handicapping and analysis. In this case, I think we have to consider the particular subjects--Grobe, Wake, and particularly Skinner.

Wake perfoms better as a dog. Playing to avenge a loss is similar in mental attitude as playing as an underdog. Although Wake isn't the dog, they have their old dog mentality for this game and a small spread to cover.

Grobe--lost to Petrino's Louisville team in the Orange Bowl, but they were in the game for 3 quarters and vastly out-talented in that game. He whipped Oregon in the Seattle Bowl (long trip from Winston Salem) and then UConn in the bowl in Charlotte last year. The team will be ready to play.

Skinner is a tough kid, an underdog who was not highly recruited but has worked hard and battled to be a solid QB the last 3 years. As the article shows, he took the first Navy loss hard, as anyone would, but Skinner has the type mental make-up that he will seize this opportunity to avenge himself more than the Average Joe QB.

I will be playing Wake for a medium play tomorrow, Kaipo and the injuries are keeping me from weighing my play heavier. Go Deacs and good luck gents.
 
Hey man just wanted to say Good Luck this bowl season, love reading your threads weekly (even though I have nothing to offer to them...helps me out though)

Lets start this shit right tomorrow :cheers:
 
Oh ya,

Talks on the Arizona message boards about Stoops leaving for Iowa State!?!? I'm gonna look into that deeper but I wonder if it could affect AZ -3?

I think we cover that handidly btw
 
great write-up on s miss, kyle. i do disagree with a few things...i don't believe usm is as balanced as you are giving them credit for as if you cut off the head (fletcher), the body will die, but still a lot of great stuff in there; just hope you're wrong lol.

excellent thread as always...
 
broadwayjoe said:
great write-up on s miss, kyle. i do disagree with a few things...i don't believe usm is as balanced as you are giving them credit for as if you cut off the head (fletcher), the body will die, but still a lot of great stuff in there; just hope you're wrong lol.

excellent thread as always...
Click to expand...


yes .. i dont want to come off that fletcher is not the focal point and that troy does not have the linebacking and dl to limit him some .. i mean they are FAR more balanced than most of Troys opponents this year. Most opponents have been one trick ponies. Don't underestimate De'Andre Brown .. kid is going to be a stud. I left a lot out of the writeup , especially on the concern side with detail. I won't exactly be surprised if Troy wins this by a td or more , but i think the +5 is a long term winner. We'll see what happens. Sunbelt and conferenceusa are not exactly my strong conferences
 
Capt. Slap said:
Hey man just wanted to say Good Luck this bowl season, love reading your threads weekly (even though I have nothing to offer to them...helps me out though)

Lets start this shit right tomorrow :cheers:
Click to expand...


thanks capt slap.

go wake tomorrow.
 
tunasunday said:
Kyle as usual--thank you for so much time and effort to initiate this thread and discussion.

Great stuff here guys, I have been slammed at work and home, so I have just had the opportunity to sort through the thread last night.

As has been mentioned, special weight needs to be given to motivation and coaching when handicapping the bowls. If you are on the Wake side, I don't think motivation is going to be an issue.


By Dan Collins
JOURNAL REPORTER
Published: December 19, 2008
When quarterback Riley Skinner of Wake Forest sprouted a beard while preparing for Saturday's bowl game against Navy, it wasn't just to hide his face.
For that, he would have been 2½ months too late.
Sept. 27, when the Deacons played the Midshipmen at BB&T Field, wasn't the best day of Skinner's life. As a college football player, it was his worst.
Skinner, a junior quarterback whose overall record as a starter is 25-11, threw a career high four interceptions that day -- only one fewer than his entire freshman season. He also lost a fumble for good measure.
The Deacons lost 24-17.
"It's all on me," Skinner said afterward.
Coach Jim Grobe disagreed, saying a porous offensive line and some slippery fingered receivers had to share the blame. He said as recently as this week that the coaching staff might have been complicit as well for putting too much of a load on Skinner.
"It was probably our fault as much as anything," Grobe said. "I think we tried to stress to the offense how important it was to make first downs and be productive, and Riley probably felt too much pressure to make big plays and work the ball down the field and be a superhero.
"We had a lot of open receivers we didn't take advantage of, probably because we stressed too much how important it was to match Navy's production."
But Skinner, as late as Tuesday, was firm on his opinion. He actually completed 26 of 40 passes against Navy for a season-high 270 yards and a touchdown, but much of his reputation as one of the best quarterbacks to ever play for Wake Forest has been his ability to avoid interceptions.
The Midshipmen converted two of the interceptions into touchdowns, and a third into a field goal, which along with extra points accounted for 17 of their 24 points.
The memory still galls him today, and serves as a motivation for the EagleBank Bowl set to kick off at 11 a.m. Saturday at RFK Stadium in Washington.
"If you're a quarterback and you've had that kind of game -- the worst game of your career -- you'd be crazy if you didn't want another shot at them," Skinner said. "As much as I have hated watching the film the last two weeks over and over again, it kind of gives you a little motivation and urgency to get back out there and go play these guys again -- and kind of prove something and get a little revenge.
"So I'm really excited to get on the field Saturday."
One of Skinner's goals going into the season was to cut down on his number of interceptions, which swelled from five as a freshman to 13 as a sophomore. Wake Forest has a record of 18-3 in games that Skinner didn't throw an interception, and a mark of 7-8 in those games that he did.
He succeeded by throwing 12, but a quarter of those came against one team.
With one game and another season remaining, Skinner ranks first at Wake Forest with a career passing efficiency rating of 130.87 and a career completion percentage of .670. He ranks fourth with 6,436 career passing yards and third with 628 career completions.
By completing 10 passes against Navy, he would move into second place ahead of Gary Schofield. He remains 38 shy of the Deacons' all-time leader, Brian Kuklick.
Skinner said he was encouraged by the offensive performance in the final game of the regular season, when the Deacons rushed for 158 yards and passed for 173 in a 23-10 victory against Vanderbilt.
With a similar display of balance in the rematch against Navy, Skinner will have a greater chance of avenging the worst game of his career.
"I think toward the end of the season we kind of found a balance," Skinner said. "It became pretty much a mixture of everything we tried all throughout the season. The last four games kind of emphasized that."
"I like where the offense is right now. Everyone's got a pretty good grasp of it. Obviously it's the end of the season. If you don't have a grasp of it by now, there's no chance. But I think we're in a good spot, and I think we'll be able to go Saturday."
■ Dan Collins can be reached at 727-7323 or at dcollins@wsjournal.com.

Late to the game here, as most everyone has handicapped and made their plays.

A few thoughts to add to the discussion:

---Still concerned about the health of Swank and Adams and now Pendergrass. Strange to me Grobe is starting Harris at RB if Adams and Pendergrass are ready. Here is a quote from Grobe:

Grobe said that both (Adams and Pendergrass) should be available Saturday.
"They're semi-healthy," Grobe said. "Brandon actually sprained his ankle again in practice. We're going to have to start charging these guys for tape. It's amazing how much tape we're putting on these guys' ankles.
"I think Josh is probably as healthy as he has been in awhile."

I still haven't been able to get confirmation of Swank's health. If he plays, we can't be for certain that he is the 50 yard FG kicking Swank that has been such a weapon through the years. If Swank is only able to kick 35 yarders and Grobe is going for it on 4th down from the opponents 30 yard line (like Wake has done the 2nd half of the year), then it really doesn't matter if Swank is playing or not.

--Kaipo at QB for Navy scares me if I am a Deac backer. Kaipo understands the offense better than Dobbs and Bryant--see the Army game. Kyle's "sneaky bad" is an apt description so far this year, but Kaipo hasn't been healthy all year. I am not so sure that description fits with a healthy Kaipo. Yes, Kaipo played the first Wake game, but it seems that his hamstring is much better this time around, if not better than it has been all year.

--This Navy team made me money the last few seasons in the bowls. No Paul Johnson this year though, which is a big factor in my opinion. Going against Navy in a bowl game is not my preference, but besides the Kaipo factor and some injury questions for the Deacs, most everything points to Wake.

--This is the 3rd time in the last 1 1/2 seasons that Wake has played Navy. Grobe is an excellent coach, one has to think he is both familar and prepared for the Navy's unique offense, as is the veteran Wake Defense. Not only is Grobe armed with 2 weeks to prepare, but he has 2 sets of game film against his particular team.

As I handicpped this game, I can't get past the motivation angle. Revenge is overweighted many times in handicapping and analysis. In this case, I think we have to consider the particular subjects--Grobe, Wake, and particularly Skinner.

Wake perfoms better as a dog. Playing to avenge a loss is similar in mental attitude as playing as an underdog. Although Wake isn't the dog, they have their old dog mentality for this game and a small spread to cover.

Grobe--lost to Petrino's Louisville team in the Orange Bowl, but they were in the game for 3 quarters and vastly out-talented in that game. He whipped Oregon in the Seattle Bowl (long trip from Winston Salem) and then UConn in the bowl in Charlotte last year. The team will be ready to play.

Skinner is a tough kid, an underdog who was not highly recruited but has worked hard and battled to be a solid QB the last 3 years. As the article shows, he took the first Navy loss hard, as anyone would, but Skinner has the type mental make-up that he will seize this opportunity to avenge himself more than the Average Joe QB.

I will be playing Wake for a medium play tomorrow, Kaipo and the injuries are keeping me from weighing my play heavier. Go Deacs and good luck gents.
Click to expand...



Great stuff all over that post.

Great point about kaipo btw ... i don't think i mentioned the difference there that much .. big upgrade to have him back over Bryant who can't throw worth a lick and Dobbs who can throw a bit , is athletic but can't make the proper reads in the option game yet.
 
"Yes, Kaipo played the first Wake game, but it seems that his hamstring is much better this time around, if not better than it has been all year."

plus he only played for 2 quarters if my memory serves me correctly. that was the game he got hurt.

huge emotional situation for him last game vs army (something that i overlooked) and this will be one too, being his last game of his career ...he told the coaches he was retiring after he kept re-injuring the hamstring, and his coaches did not let him retire, forcing him to rehab for a couple of weeks and be ready for the army game, which he was and played very well. it will be a huge emotional factor in this game to him and his teammates that he has fought back and is suiting up for his last game when he could have easily quit and probably joined the staff. been a big part of navy football the last couple of years, and i think this evens up the motivational factors a little bit, especially since i am of the very unpopular opinion that wake doesn't really have their sights on a true revenge as it may seem--aside of course from skinner, that is.

great stuff on the game guys...tough to back navy with all the information you guys have put out there...
 
"Skinner is a tough kid, an underdog who was not highly recruited but has worked hard and battled to be a solid QB the last 3 years."

agree. at first i wasn't as excited about this game, but it should be a good close game with two qbs and coaches that i admire--which can't be said very often these days
 
pags11 said:
kyle,

thanks very much brother...I appreciate your kind words and am also happy to take part in your bowl thread...keep up the great work this bowl season and for many years to come...

crimsonk,

I do anticipate La. Tech having balance on offense, as they showed more and more as Jenkins has gained experience...Livas has started to catch TDs and Beck is making some plays as well...as I mentioned before both Jackson and Porter catch the ball well out of the backfield...GL bud...
Click to expand...

Thanks Pags I appreciate the response. GL to you as well
 
Thanks guys , for steering me toward the right side - I hope - in a lot of games. Let's go, Wake
 
i'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but i don't remember seeing it if it was..


another thing going for wake from game 1 is their left tackle was ejected in game 1--aside from losing the center, that's the worst thing that can happen for a qb's confidence---especially when you're behind a line that gives up 2.5 sacks per game to begin with
 
GL VK....Havent been involved in Bowl season yet but have ......

Zona -2.5 -120 {Level3}
Col State +3.5 -120{Level3}
Wake -2.5 -120 {Level2}
Memphis +11.5 {Level1}

:cheers:
 
Great start, Kyle , Thanks for 'validating' my selection of Wake.

And I have to blush a bit because I may be the only one in the pool who had this game as his 34. Woo Woo
 
broadwayjoe said:
i'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but i don't remember seeing it if it was..


another thing going for wake from game 1 is their left tackle was ejected in game 1--aside from losing the center, that's the worst thing that can happen for a qb's confidence---especially when you're behind a line that gives up 2.5 sacks per game to begin with
Click to expand...


I did not mention nor hav ei seen anyone else mention. and in fact , despite seeing ti when it happened i forgot about it.

This game should not have been as close as it was. i will take it though.
 
SportsNut said:
GL VK....Havent been involved in Bowl season yet but have ......

Zona -2.5 -120 {Level3}
Col State +3.5 -120{Level3}
Wake -2.5 -120 {Level2}
Memphis +11.5 {Level1}

:cheers:
Click to expand...


Hey man , nice cash on wake .. gl with the rest .. lean your way in both col st and memphis. ..... zona line seemed pretty dead on for me but i will be cheering for you as i will be in attendance on the arizona side with RJesq holding a wildcat ticket. I will try and make some noise for you.

Also , i think you, broadway and ostate were three guys i forgot to thank for contributions to my threads this year. Really appreciate discussing games with you.

gl the rest of the day nutcase.
 
bull said:
Great start, Kyle , Thanks for 'validating' my selection of Wake.

And I have to blush a bit because I may be the only one in the pool who had this game as his 34. Woo Woo
Click to expand...


last year lost the first game and had a good bowl season ... hopefully this year it is good from start to finish.

grats on the confidence pool.
 
have fun at the game with RJ bro...and great fuckin call! I had Navy ML, but Wake dominated after first quarter.
 
tunasunday said:
There is no season like bowl season.

1 and 0. Here we go....


:cheers: Cheers Deac and over backers.
Click to expand...




That last front door TD was huge in a lot of respects , wasn't it ?

I didn't need the score at -2.5 but i can imagine there are a lot of upset folks out there.

Did skinner throw an incompletion ?
 
nice call kyle--wake backers definitely deserved to win (at least i think)--but still a tough one for me to swallow as i had bought back half my navy +3 wager with wake -3 2half, and thought i had the profit wrapped up there with a 22-19 final. oh well, i start in the hole 1.5u; better than -3u if i wouldn't have added wake 2h i guess
 
Nice win buddy. Skinner was perfect, and the full back dive was perfect too. Although i just got a call from WF athletic department and I'm gonna be interviewing for OC job next year. Wake owed me after costing me that +700 future on ACC champs
 
broadwayjoe said:
nice call kyle--wake backers definitely deserved to win (at least i think)--but still a tough one for me to swallow as i had bought back half my navy +3 wager with wake -3 2half, and thought i had the profit wrapped up there with a 22-19 final. oh well, i start in the hole 1.5u; better than -3u if i wouldn't have added wake 2h i guess
Click to expand...


you and other navy backers were in good position most of the game. i think after watching the game that i would without question bet wake again and in fact be more confident than i was going into this game. But the way the game played out Navy was the favorite to cash most of the game.

Nice call at the half ..i saw etg took them second half as well. You almost had a really good chance at that middle.
 
CrimsonK said:
Nice win buddy. Skinner was perfect, and the full back dive was perfect too. Although i just got a call from WF athletic department and I'm gonna be interviewing for OC job next year. Wake owed me after costing me that +700 future on ACC champs
Click to expand...



Yeah , Grobe must have put a lot of emphasis on the notre dame tape where they just power ran the ball down navy's throat. I thought wake would have been better served passing earlier but i guess i can't complain.
 
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