2008 cfb -- time to post my bowl card so far--updated card post 277
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Pull the trigger on Wake.
I think this will be a close game either way decided by 7 pts or less. Wake won't fuck up like they did last game.
Check out this boxscore and drive chart:
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD></TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>9-16</TD><TD>7-15</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>343</TD><TD>313</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>270</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>26-40</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>12.8</TD><TD>6.8</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>292</TD><TD>43</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>59</TD><TD>31</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>1.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-43</TD><TD>5-45</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>36:49</TD><TD>23:11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Very evenly matched except time of possession and turnovers (6!). Turnovers won't happen this game, at least not in the volume.
Drive chart:
<TABLE class=tablehead style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255)" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=gamehead style="WIDTH: 364px" align=middle>e Chart</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 204px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255)"></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255)"></TD><TD class=colhead align=middle> <SCRIPT type=text/javascript> //<![CDATA[ var SOB = new flashObj(); SOB.flashFile = "http://assets.espn.go.com/nfl/gamepackage/drivechart/driveChart_14.swf?sport=ncf&hTeam=WFU&aTeam=NAVY&hName=Wake+Forest&aName=Navy&gameId=282710154&gameStatus=3&period=4&baseUrl=http://"+window.location.host+""; SOB.ID = "drivechart"; SOB.width = "364"; SOB.height = "224"; SOB.wmode = "transparent"; SOB.DenyIEdl = "TRUE"; SOB.altTxt = ""; SOB.FlashVer = 6; SOB.cabVersion = "6,0,0,0"; SOB.scale = "noScale"; SOB.render(true); //]]> </SCRIPT><EMBED id=drivechart name=flash2 pluginspage=http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash src=http://assets.espn.go.com/nfl/gamepackage/drivechart/driveChart_14.swf?sport=ncf&hTeam=WFU&aTeam=NAVY&hName=Wake+Forest&aName=Navy&gameId=282710154&gameStatus=3&period=4&baseUrl=http://sports.espn.go.com width=364 height=224 type=application/x-shockwave-flash allownetworking="All" allowscriptaccess="Always" salign="lt" devicefont="false" menu="false" wmode="transparent" flashvars="null" scale="noScale" quality="best" swliveconnect="FALSE"> </TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255)"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: rgb(15,16,33); -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial"><TD colSpan=7>Navy Drive Summaries</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD>START</TD><TD>QTR</TD><TD>POSS.</TD><TD>YARD</TD><TD>PLAYS</TD><TD>YARDS</TD><TD>RESULT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top><TD>14:07</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>04:10</TD><TD>NAVY 49</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>Rushing Touchdown</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top><TD>08:02</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>07:42</TD><TD>NAVY 26</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>74</TD><TD>Rushing Touchdown</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>10:33</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>04:18</TD><TD>NAVY 24</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top><TD>05:49</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>01:14</TD><TD>WFU 27</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Field Goal Good</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>03:41</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>02:01</TD><TD>NAVY 29</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>00:50</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>00:41</TD><TD>NAVY 42</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>End of Half</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>12:45</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>02:01</TD><TD>NAVY 20</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-10</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>08:16</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>02:08</TD><TD>NAVY 15</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>04:03</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>03:43</TD><TD>NAVY 3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>13:25</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>02:09</TD><TD>NAVY 3</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>09:42</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>03:07</TD><TD>NAVY 1</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>54</TD><TD>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top><TD>05:27</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>01:26</TD><TD>NAVY 37</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>63</TD><TD>Rushing Touchdown</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>01:18</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>01:14</TD><TD>WFU 43</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>End of Game</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=stathead style="BACKGROUND: rgb(0,0,0); -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial"><TD colSpan=7>Wake Forest Drive Summaries</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD>START</TD><TD>QTR</TD><TD>POSS.</TD><TD>YARD</TD><TD>PLAYS</TD><TD>YARDS</TD><TD>RESULT</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>15:00</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>00:56</TD><TD>WFU 33</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>Interception</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>09:57</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>01:55</TD><TD>WFU 20</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>14:54</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>04:33</TD><TD>WFU 29</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>06:25</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>00:36</TD><TD>WFU 39</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>-10</TD><TD>Interception</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>04:13</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>00:46</TD><TD>NAVY 45</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>01:40</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>00:51</TD><TD>WFU 15</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>Interception</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top><TD>15:00</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>02:15</TD><TD>WFU 17</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>Rushing Touchdown</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top><TD>10:44</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>02:03</TD><TD>NAVY 41</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>Field Goal Good</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>06:30</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>02:09</TD><TD>WFU 38</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>01:34</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>02:25</TD><TD>WFU 34</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>11:11</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>01:04</TD><TD>NAVY 37</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>06:35</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>00:48</TD><TD>WFU 45</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>Interception</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" vAlign=top><TD>03:45</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>02:33</TD><TD>WFU 29</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>71</TD><TD>Passing Touchdown</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Wake's turnovers resulted in 10 Navy points and also killed at least one scoring drive if not 2 when Wake turned it over in Navy Territory.
Revenge game for Wake, practically a home game for Navy (bowl game was built for them).
I like Wake with the short line to get revenge.
good stuff rj .. couldnot agree more with you. i also watched that game as i had an under 53 bet on that game. Which also brings up the point that this line on the total is 11 points lower than the previously lined game. But , i never had a feeling watching that game that navy was the better unit.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
pretty sure it will be kaipo and not dobbs again this week. But if it is dobbs instead that would make me love wake much more.
thanks and great analysis by you again. tough break on the wake future. they had that boston college game all wrapped up ...
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
:hang:
edit instead of quote. guess i was riding on fondy's short bus yesterday...sry bout that.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
wasnt a problem ,, think i pretty much edited to address atleast most of the points i made the first time around.
Saw you added ncst , miami u and wake today.
i love bowl season , yanks.
me too :cheers:
think i check the lines (at 3 shops) every fucking hour, just about.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
LionbackerU
New Member
VK.... I'd be very interested to see your breakdown for the MSU-UGA (Cap One Bowl) Game and our game as well (PSU-USC)... If you get a chance I'd appreciate your thoughts... I'm all about UGA here...
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
very glad i read this thread.
...Nevada's pistol is dominant, worked against Boise in the comeback and absolutely dominated Fresno State as i had a small ML play on the Bulldogs in that one on ESPN2. I think they'll be motivated as any "small conference" team would be, while Maryland won't be whatsoever. I love Friedgen as a dog, but not when it's below a field goal. I think Kaepornick will play very well, and the Maryland D will have trouble with something they haven't seen before.
...I lean Navy because of the earlier win, but i'm very curious about how vegas could see a 24-17 victory on the road and make this team dogged. For that reason, i think i'm laying off as it's Wake or no play seeing them favored despite losing SU at home to this team as an 11-point fav. i think.
...also like BYU. I lost a good chunk on them against Utah, which that game seems to destroy me every year, but i really think they are better than Arizona. Like Nevada, i think BYU will be up for this game while Arizona won't, and i think that they'll be able to run the ball and that Max Hall will avoid another 5 interception night.
...great posts VK and good luck guys
...Nevada's pistol is dominant, worked against Boise in the comeback and absolutely dominated Fresno State as i had a small ML play on the Bulldogs in that one on ESPN2. I think they'll be motivated as any "small conference" team would be, while Maryland won't be whatsoever. I love Friedgen as a dog, but not when it's below a field goal. I think Kaepornick will play very well, and the Maryland D will have trouble with something they haven't seen before.
...I lean Navy because of the earlier win, but i'm very curious about how vegas could see a 24-17 victory on the road and make this team dogged. For that reason, i think i'm laying off as it's Wake or no play seeing them favored despite losing SU at home to this team as an 11-point fav. i think.
...also like BYU. I lost a good chunk on them against Utah, which that game seems to destroy me every year, but i really think they are better than Arizona. Like Nevada, i think BYU will be up for this game while Arizona won't, and i think that they'll be able to run the ball and that Max Hall will avoid another 5 interception night.
...great posts VK and good luck guys
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i will try to break down those two games lion with plenty of time before kickoff. In the middle of doing the hawaii bowl at the moment. i will do cap one bowl after that. It may be awhile before i get to the rose bowl. i have made a conscience decision to try and get the non-bcs games done first.
one of few that has started with a lean for penn st .. folks are sort of giving me some good points for usc that i have to consider but i am trying to stay unbiased prior to finishing the capping. This is why i think it is important each week to be prepared BEFORE numbers are released on sunday nights ... it keeps me from taking an immediate reaction to a seen line and have that skew my thought process.
anyway , i will get to cap one bowl soon but it may take longer to get to your rose bowl.. grats on getting there btw ... guess the game hasn't passed the old man by.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
---Agree with you about nevada , though i am not sure it will be dominant.. the pistol should have some success against that defense. Friedgen and level of competition are the concern.
--- i think you bring up a couple of good points. 1. that navy beat wake the first time around and while i think that was due more to uncharacteristic plays by wake , it may very well be that navy is the better team. i failed to point out in my writeup that the game was played at wake forest too ... that should have been said int here somewhere and there is a difference between a game at wake forest and a game that is pretty much a home game type atmosphere for navy , though not a true home field edge. 2. you metnion the line difference between the two games and i think it is significant but maybe for different reasons. they were 11 poit favs at home and now go to a semu-neutral ( edge to navy with field ) and are just 3 point favorites. 8 points seems like a tad much to me so i look at it from the standpoint of getting line value based off of the one game they played eachother more than anything else ... navy is exactly what most of us thought they were coming into the year but wake has been a slight disappointment on the offensive side of the ball , the earlier game was played somewhat early in the season when perception of wake was a lot more positive so that factors in too .... so i am surprised it is this low really as compared to you being surprised that the home loser is favored now on a neutral type field that actually favors the midshipmen.
--i need to cap that las vegas bowl .. should have access to lots of local media on this game and coaches qoutes etc etc etc ... might also be attending , i havent decided yet and havent checked schedule yet to see if i can. gl with the byu bet unless i cap it out and like zona ......
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl , Honolulu
Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
Line : Hawaii -2
Athletes--edge notre dame
Hawaii has actually started to recruit a better level of athlete. They are both faster and bigger than they are given credit for. You will also see Hawaii hit hard if you watch them play. A very physical style of play on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame on the other hand , doesn’t quite seem to have the caliber of athlete that you would expect based on their highly regarded recruits over the years. However , they are still , for the most part , bigger and faster than the Hawaii kids. There are certainly some spots where this is not true but I think that you have to give the edge , even if smaller than most would think , to notre dame here in this department.
Location-huge edge Hawaii
Simply put , a trip to Hawaii for a game is the toughest in all of college football. As I stated in my preseason thread regarding HFA , Hawaii is the team I give the biggest edge to in that regard. A lot of this has to do with the travel and some of it has to do with the vacation atmosphere in an exotic , beautiful location .. Some say it has to do even more with bad officiating and clock keeping. Whatever you feel the reasons are , the fact that it is a huge advantage cannot be denied. However , I do think there is less of an advantage in this particular game ( the Hawaii bowl ) in that the opposing team has more time to get the long plane trip out of their system , to get the time change out of their system and to get some of the scenery of the area out of their system in time for the actual game. So make no bones about it , this is a huge edge for the warriors but far less of one than a regular season game in my estimation. Hawaii has won something like 20 of their last 23 home games or something like that.
Motivation-- edge notre dame
There are motivational edges all over the place for notre dame in this game. Lets start with the coaches, Notre Dame decided to bring Weiss back for next year. This game has to have significance to him and the program heading into next season. Notre Dame has not won a bowl game in what seems like forever. I am not looking it up right now but I thinki heard this year during a notre dame game that it was the 1994 cotton bowl vs. tamu . They have lost something like 9 in a row since then. So there is motivation for the program as a whole to get this win. This is not a scenario with a big time program coming to Hawaii to vacation , they are coming on a mission. You also have some other factors that I think benefit notre dame here. They are coming off of a terrible offensive game vs. usc in which they managed just 4 first downs. Prior to that they had a humiliating loss to Syracuse. This team has a lot to prove and if you look at what they did prior to those two games you will find they had played very decent football the previous 7 games to those. Hawaii is not without its own motivation. First year coach looking to get a bowl win at home , a team that may relish the chance to knock off notre dame while they can and a chance to showcase the program on a day where this is the only bowl game on television. There is also redemption for the beating they took from georgia last year though I think two thinks make that less of a motivating factor here. The first is that I think the kids themselves realize it was not near the beat down that others claim it was and the second is that there was huge turnover of key players so it means less than it might otherwise. I just cannot imagine that notre dame does not come and play inspired here , that weiss does not prepare his ass off for this game. A loss to Hawaii in a bowl game after getting a vote of confidence and at least another year out of the administration will make for a very very very long and brutal offseason. A win and the program can atleast claim a baby step of progress.
Coaching -- WASH
I have a hard time giving either coach an edge in this one. I can’t say that I have seen enough of McMackin coaching on game day to make a really good assessment of him in that regard. However , their complete lack of discipline is not a good sign in my opinion. Sure , some of that is the attitude these dudes bring to the field with them but they are the most penalized team in college football for a reason. 79 yards of penalties a game is just too much. Still , I don’t have enough information to give a really quality assessment of the guy. One thing that I do know , is that I am unimpressed with Charlie Weiss. Any time you have a season where different people are calling plays at different points , I raise red flags. For all the talk of weiss’ great play calling ability , I really have not seen it. So I guess , I am calling this one a wash.
Special teams--edge notre dame
Fg kicking-- Hawaii si one of the worst in the country at making field goals. Dan Kelly has been sickly bad this year. He is just 10 of 21 with a long of 41 and is even missing one of every 20 extra point attempts. Just no way to be nice about it , the kid has struggled badly. Notre Dame has certainly been no juggernaut at knocking them thru the uprights either. Brandon Walker is just 14 of 24 but has a much stronger leg than Kelly does. He has made a kick of 40+ yards in six different games with a long of 48. Definitive edge to notre dame in this department
Punting- There is no significant edge to either team in regards to the punters. Both kids are adequate averaging 40.8 (Maust -nd ) and 40.7 ( Grasso - Hawaii ). Unless there is something that I am missing here , I feel it is pretty safe to call the punting a wash.
Return game / coverage --Well we have to start by saying tht the Hawaii punt return game is possibly the worst in the nation. Thev average about 2 yards a return. Notre dame is above average in this regard averaging roughly nine and a half yards per return. Coupled with the punters I think it is fair to expect notre dame to get a 4-8 yard edge of field position when trading punts. Kick off return games are about the same with both teams averaging a little over 20 yards per return. Overall , notre dame played tougher competition so I would expect any variance from those numbers to skew in favor of notre dame long term in this matchup.
Strength of schedule./ conference WASH
Hawaii did what they could as far as scheduling out of conference opponents. At florida , AT Oregon st and home to Cincinnati is a very tough group of games. However , the WAC is a very weak conference this year and that cannot be overlooked. Both teams have faced 7 bowl teams. I can’t look past all the bad teams that Hawaii has played , but they did have a 3-4 record vs. bowl teams this year. Notre dame was just 1-6 in their games vs. bowl teams. I am calling this a wash even though I think notre dame has a good argument for the tougher schedule.
Alright lets do it ….
ND pass offense vs. Hawaii pass defense--edge notre dame
Notre Dame , not surprisingly , runs a pro-set type of offense that relies on the power running game to set up the pass. Jimmy Clausen is the key to the passing game but he has been very inconsistent all year long. It seems to be that he either starts out well or he loses confidence. He has also struggled with interceptions and has already thrown 17 this season heading into Hawaii. The play makers are there for him on the outside as notre dame has a lot of quality depth at wr led by Michael floyd. Golden “Dome” Tate also has big play capability for the irish pass attack. For most of the year this attack was very prolific but suffered when Michael floyd went down with a knee injury early in the navy game. Since that time the irish have struggled in the passing game. Weiss went with the power rush game to beat a less than good navy defense that refused to commit men to the line of scrimmage after the injury. They threw for just 110 yards in that game. The next week they managed some big plays with tate and grimes and threw for 291 vs. Syracuse before the atrocity that was the usc game. My point here is that notre dame struggles of late seem to coincide with the loss of floyd who is expected to be back for this game. Seems unlikely to this handicapper that notre dame fails to have success tossing the ball around.
237 vs. sdsu who gives up an average of 213
147 vs. Michigan who gives up an average of 230
242 vs. mich st who gives up an average of 210
275 vs. purdue who gives up an average of 184
347 vs. stanford who gives up an average of 226
383 vs. North Carolina who gives up an average of 217
207 vs. Washington who gives up an average of 211
271 vs. Pittsburgh who gives up an average of 193
226 vs. boston college who gives up an average of 181
110 vs. navy who gives up an average of 215
291 vs. Syracuse who gives up an average of 225
41 vs. usc who gives up an average of 122 best in the nation
There are several things I want to point out here about the above that I feel are important.
1. Hawaii gives up 204 yards per game to the opposing passing unit. I bolded all the games in which notre dame played a defense that gave up 25 yds less or more per game than Hawaii. Since Hawaii has an average pass defense , a lot of games apply. But note that notre dame consistently defeats the season average of the opponent defense. The exceptions have great excuses as well. The navy game where Floyd got hurt and weiss changed the gameplan up a little bit and the Washington game where they were just 4 yards off washingtons normal total because they simply sat on a huge lead In every other game , they really significantly performed better than average.
2. I am a little bit fearful of what to expect if floyd does not play but I am willing to give notre dame a pass for the navy game and they were just completely outmatched by usc.
3. I love , absolutely love , the fact that this team did so poorly in their last game. Big step down in defensive opposition with motivation to not get humiliated again.
4 Hawaii struggles against teams that pass as well as notre dame. Let me show you with simple national rankings what I mean. I have listed all of hawaiis opponents national rank in passing offense ( yardage as a barometer not comp percentage or efficiency ) from best to worst and next to each the word “win” and “loss” to illustrate my point along with points allowed.
Nmsu 9 win ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30 allowed
Boise st 12 loss ………27 allowed
Cincinnati 24 loss …….29 allowed
Oregon state 25 loss …..45 allowed
Notre dame 46
Nevada 52 win ………. 31 allowed
Florida 61 loss ………..56 allowed
Fresno st 66 win ……….29 allowed ( ot but fsu did not score in ot )
Utah state 77 loss …….30 allowed
San jose st 80 loss ………20 allowed
Idaho 85 win ……………17 allowed
Latech 102 win …………14 allowed
Wash st 106 win ………. 10 allowed
I hope that make my point clear without having to talk about it much more. I do want to mention that the loss to san jose st was a game in which Hawaii lost the turnover battle 0-6 and lost the game by just 3 points. I would also like to mention that the nmsu win vs. the good pass attack is merely the result of nmsu lack of defense. They rank ninth in the nation in passing but hve defeated just two fbs schools all year.
It is obvious to me that Hawaii simply prefers to defend teams that either cannot throw or scheme to run first.
I also want to point out how badly skewed notre dame season averages are in the passing game due to notre dames last game against usc .
One point of note in favor of Hawaii in my opinion is the quality of their defensive line. This is what makes them tough to run on at times and these guys can really get after the passer. They average 2.6 sacks per game. Notre Dame is giving up 1.67 sacks per game … so they rate to get to clausen a few times in this game. Also want to point out that in my opinion , clausen can be flustered and Hawaii is going ot hit your ass , sometimes after the whistle, So a concern would be clausen getting a little bit of the happy feet.
Another concern that I have seen is that clausen does not seem to throw a good ball in the rain or wet. It really floats on him. Hawaii often has a soft mist rain that falls there ( its really beautiful and contributes to the number of rainbows that we see there when we are lucky enough to get out there ) and I could see that bothering him some if it happens.
In case you haven’t figured it out yet , I strongly believe that notre dame has success in the passing game.
ND rush offense vs. Hawaii rush defense--edge Hawaii
touched on this earlier but the Hawaii defensive line is a really strong unit. Tough kids. They have given up an average of 148 yards per game at 4.00 yards per carry ranking them slightly below average on paper but they have played a lot of very solid running games this year including Nevada , florida , boise st and Oregon st. I first noticed this the very first game of the year vs. florida where they more than held their own. Notre Dame is averaging 113 yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry. They have struggled to open big holes and they have also struggled to make big plays in the rushing game. The result is a lot of small but down and distance productivity out of them. Veikune is the monster that no one knows about. This guy gas 9 sacks , 16 tackles for loss , 71 tackles and 4 forced fumbles. He will be difficult to block all game whether running or passing for the irish. Most folks do know about Solomon elimimian who leads the team with 112 tackles. I have said it many times in this thread already but I really think you will all notice it when you watch this bowl game… Hawaii hits you. They hit you hard and often. The irish don’t really have a featured back. They attack you with a three headed monster of Aldridge Allen and hughes. All three are capable but none of them dynamic and they are running behind an average rushing oline at best. I give a little bit of an edge to Hawaii in this regard.
Hawaii rush offense vs. notre dame rush defense--edge notre dame
when you are in the bottom 25 in rushing attempts , yards , average per carry AND you play in the WAC there is a problem. Simply put the team can’t run the football. Their best option is “nacho” Libre and that is not saying much. He failed to reach 100 yards in any game this year , topping out with 88 against the putrid nmsu defense. The team itself averages just 99 yards a game ( ouch ! ) and just 3.3 yards per carry. Expecting them to have a ton of success here would mean intervention from the ghost of king Kamehameha. Notre Dame defense vs. the run has been average at best . They give up roughly 143 yards a game and 4.2 yards per carry. I have to give Notre Dame a clear edge here. Hawaii just has shown neither the ability nor the want to run the football..
Hawaii pass offense vs. notre dame pass defense --WASH
We know that Hawaii likes to throw it around so it is time to see how effective they should be at it. Hawaii is throwing the ball pretty effectively with 245.5 yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt. However , it might surprise you to know that Hawaii atttempts less passes per game than notre dame does. While Hawaii has put up decent numbers in the passing game the matchup is not a good one for them. Notre Dame has been rock solid in the pass defense department. The irish yield just 194.3 yards per game through the air and a VERY impressive 5.9 yards per pass attempt. However , it has to be noted that notre dame simply has not played that many pass first offenses this year. The exception might be purdue , who they defeated but who they also gave up 359 yards passing to… though purdue threw it an amazing 55 times in that game. Basically , what I am trying to say is that the notre dame pass defense is not as good as the numbers would indicate. Unfortunately for Hawaii , their numbers are also skewed by the types of teams they have played.. Nevada has the worst pass defense in the country , latech #117 , Idaho # 107 , Utah state # 99 ,…. If you look at Hawaii performances vs. pass defenses in notre dames statistical neighborhood you find they were not nearly as successful … again outside of the nmsu game. I am not giving a lot of weight to that game obviously. Just 181 at florida through the air with 3 interceptions , just 154 through the air at Oregon st , again with 3 interceptions. Just 225 vs. sjsu with 4 interceptions , just 170 vs. fresno state , just 232 vs. boise st with 5 interceptions , …you get the idea .. They don’t really perform in the passing game vs. the better pass defenses that are similar to notre dame. Some of this has been fixed up a little by Hawaii since Alexander seems to take better care of the ball on average than Funaki or Graunke did. But that is also something to keep an eye on here. Will McMackin give bowl snaps to multiple qb’s here ? With extra time to prepare does notre dame stand even a better chance of jumping warriors routes ? I think Hawaii can have some success throwing the ball but I would expect it to be less than their norm and to come at the price of an interception or two … or three. For that reason I am calling this a WASH. Stats without context would mean an edge for notre dame… but we are on it. Also want to point out that Hawaii leads the nation in sacks allowed. Ouch again
So here is the smilies checklist for this one
Athletes -- notre dame
Location --Hawaii
Motivation-- notre dame
Coaching -- WASH
Special teams --notre dame
Nd pass offense vs. Hawaii pass defense --notre dame
ND rush offense vs. Hawaii rush defense --Hawaii
Hawaii rush offense vs. notre dame rush defense --notre dame
Hawaii pass offense vs. notre dame pass defense-- WASH
By my handicapping , the wrong team is favored here. I have the better talent , with the better on the field matchups and by far the most motivation vs. one of the toughest home fields in the country and a team that seems to be getting better every week. I can do that with an underdog anytime.
I would look for more information on Floyds status for the game and for more information about how McMackin plans on using the quarterbacks here for more confidence , but I don’t see how I avoid betting the irish here.
I will be making a play on notre dame plus the points or possibly the money line.
- wanted to mention Hawaii penalties. Hawaii is the most penalized team in the nation. They end up on average to be negative 27 yards or so per game in penalty yardage.
-- I made up the nicknames Golden “dome” tate and “nacho” libre though it wouldn’t surprise me if one of them were true.
Notre Dame vs. Hawaii
Line : Hawaii -2
Athletes--edge notre dame
Hawaii has actually started to recruit a better level of athlete. They are both faster and bigger than they are given credit for. You will also see Hawaii hit hard if you watch them play. A very physical style of play on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame on the other hand , doesn’t quite seem to have the caliber of athlete that you would expect based on their highly regarded recruits over the years. However , they are still , for the most part , bigger and faster than the Hawaii kids. There are certainly some spots where this is not true but I think that you have to give the edge , even if smaller than most would think , to notre dame here in this department.
Location-huge edge Hawaii
Simply put , a trip to Hawaii for a game is the toughest in all of college football. As I stated in my preseason thread regarding HFA , Hawaii is the team I give the biggest edge to in that regard. A lot of this has to do with the travel and some of it has to do with the vacation atmosphere in an exotic , beautiful location .. Some say it has to do even more with bad officiating and clock keeping. Whatever you feel the reasons are , the fact that it is a huge advantage cannot be denied. However , I do think there is less of an advantage in this particular game ( the Hawaii bowl ) in that the opposing team has more time to get the long plane trip out of their system , to get the time change out of their system and to get some of the scenery of the area out of their system in time for the actual game. So make no bones about it , this is a huge edge for the warriors but far less of one than a regular season game in my estimation. Hawaii has won something like 20 of their last 23 home games or something like that.
Motivation-- edge notre dame
There are motivational edges all over the place for notre dame in this game. Lets start with the coaches, Notre Dame decided to bring Weiss back for next year. This game has to have significance to him and the program heading into next season. Notre Dame has not won a bowl game in what seems like forever. I am not looking it up right now but I thinki heard this year during a notre dame game that it was the 1994 cotton bowl vs. tamu . They have lost something like 9 in a row since then. So there is motivation for the program as a whole to get this win. This is not a scenario with a big time program coming to Hawaii to vacation , they are coming on a mission. You also have some other factors that I think benefit notre dame here. They are coming off of a terrible offensive game vs. usc in which they managed just 4 first downs. Prior to that they had a humiliating loss to Syracuse. This team has a lot to prove and if you look at what they did prior to those two games you will find they had played very decent football the previous 7 games to those. Hawaii is not without its own motivation. First year coach looking to get a bowl win at home , a team that may relish the chance to knock off notre dame while they can and a chance to showcase the program on a day where this is the only bowl game on television. There is also redemption for the beating they took from georgia last year though I think two thinks make that less of a motivating factor here. The first is that I think the kids themselves realize it was not near the beat down that others claim it was and the second is that there was huge turnover of key players so it means less than it might otherwise. I just cannot imagine that notre dame does not come and play inspired here , that weiss does not prepare his ass off for this game. A loss to Hawaii in a bowl game after getting a vote of confidence and at least another year out of the administration will make for a very very very long and brutal offseason. A win and the program can atleast claim a baby step of progress.
Coaching -- WASH
I have a hard time giving either coach an edge in this one. I can’t say that I have seen enough of McMackin coaching on game day to make a really good assessment of him in that regard. However , their complete lack of discipline is not a good sign in my opinion. Sure , some of that is the attitude these dudes bring to the field with them but they are the most penalized team in college football for a reason. 79 yards of penalties a game is just too much. Still , I don’t have enough information to give a really quality assessment of the guy. One thing that I do know , is that I am unimpressed with Charlie Weiss. Any time you have a season where different people are calling plays at different points , I raise red flags. For all the talk of weiss’ great play calling ability , I really have not seen it. So I guess , I am calling this one a wash.
Special teams--edge notre dame
Fg kicking-- Hawaii si one of the worst in the country at making field goals. Dan Kelly has been sickly bad this year. He is just 10 of 21 with a long of 41 and is even missing one of every 20 extra point attempts. Just no way to be nice about it , the kid has struggled badly. Notre Dame has certainly been no juggernaut at knocking them thru the uprights either. Brandon Walker is just 14 of 24 but has a much stronger leg than Kelly does. He has made a kick of 40+ yards in six different games with a long of 48. Definitive edge to notre dame in this department
Punting- There is no significant edge to either team in regards to the punters. Both kids are adequate averaging 40.8 (Maust -nd ) and 40.7 ( Grasso - Hawaii ). Unless there is something that I am missing here , I feel it is pretty safe to call the punting a wash.
Return game / coverage --Well we have to start by saying tht the Hawaii punt return game is possibly the worst in the nation. Thev average about 2 yards a return. Notre dame is above average in this regard averaging roughly nine and a half yards per return. Coupled with the punters I think it is fair to expect notre dame to get a 4-8 yard edge of field position when trading punts. Kick off return games are about the same with both teams averaging a little over 20 yards per return. Overall , notre dame played tougher competition so I would expect any variance from those numbers to skew in favor of notre dame long term in this matchup.
Strength of schedule./ conference WASH
Hawaii did what they could as far as scheduling out of conference opponents. At florida , AT Oregon st and home to Cincinnati is a very tough group of games. However , the WAC is a very weak conference this year and that cannot be overlooked. Both teams have faced 7 bowl teams. I can’t look past all the bad teams that Hawaii has played , but they did have a 3-4 record vs. bowl teams this year. Notre dame was just 1-6 in their games vs. bowl teams. I am calling this a wash even though I think notre dame has a good argument for the tougher schedule.
Alright lets do it ….
ND pass offense vs. Hawaii pass defense--edge notre dame
Notre Dame , not surprisingly , runs a pro-set type of offense that relies on the power running game to set up the pass. Jimmy Clausen is the key to the passing game but he has been very inconsistent all year long. It seems to be that he either starts out well or he loses confidence. He has also struggled with interceptions and has already thrown 17 this season heading into Hawaii. The play makers are there for him on the outside as notre dame has a lot of quality depth at wr led by Michael floyd. Golden “Dome” Tate also has big play capability for the irish pass attack. For most of the year this attack was very prolific but suffered when Michael floyd went down with a knee injury early in the navy game. Since that time the irish have struggled in the passing game. Weiss went with the power rush game to beat a less than good navy defense that refused to commit men to the line of scrimmage after the injury. They threw for just 110 yards in that game. The next week they managed some big plays with tate and grimes and threw for 291 vs. Syracuse before the atrocity that was the usc game. My point here is that notre dame struggles of late seem to coincide with the loss of floyd who is expected to be back for this game. Seems unlikely to this handicapper that notre dame fails to have success tossing the ball around.
237 vs. sdsu who gives up an average of 213
147 vs. Michigan who gives up an average of 230
242 vs. mich st who gives up an average of 210
275 vs. purdue who gives up an average of 184
347 vs. stanford who gives up an average of 226
383 vs. North Carolina who gives up an average of 217
207 vs. Washington who gives up an average of 211
271 vs. Pittsburgh who gives up an average of 193
226 vs. boston college who gives up an average of 181
110 vs. navy who gives up an average of 215
291 vs. Syracuse who gives up an average of 225
41 vs. usc who gives up an average of 122 best in the nation
There are several things I want to point out here about the above that I feel are important.
1. Hawaii gives up 204 yards per game to the opposing passing unit. I bolded all the games in which notre dame played a defense that gave up 25 yds less or more per game than Hawaii. Since Hawaii has an average pass defense , a lot of games apply. But note that notre dame consistently defeats the season average of the opponent defense. The exceptions have great excuses as well. The navy game where Floyd got hurt and weiss changed the gameplan up a little bit and the Washington game where they were just 4 yards off washingtons normal total because they simply sat on a huge lead In every other game , they really significantly performed better than average.
2. I am a little bit fearful of what to expect if floyd does not play but I am willing to give notre dame a pass for the navy game and they were just completely outmatched by usc.
3. I love , absolutely love , the fact that this team did so poorly in their last game. Big step down in defensive opposition with motivation to not get humiliated again.
4 Hawaii struggles against teams that pass as well as notre dame. Let me show you with simple national rankings what I mean. I have listed all of hawaiis opponents national rank in passing offense ( yardage as a barometer not comp percentage or efficiency ) from best to worst and next to each the word “win” and “loss” to illustrate my point along with points allowed.
Nmsu 9 win ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30 allowed
Boise st 12 loss ………27 allowed
Cincinnati 24 loss …….29 allowed
Oregon state 25 loss …..45 allowed
Notre dame 46
Nevada 52 win ………. 31 allowed
Florida 61 loss ………..56 allowed
Fresno st 66 win ……….29 allowed ( ot but fsu did not score in ot )
Utah state 77 loss …….30 allowed
San jose st 80 loss ………20 allowed
Idaho 85 win ……………17 allowed
Latech 102 win …………14 allowed
Wash st 106 win ………. 10 allowed
I hope that make my point clear without having to talk about it much more. I do want to mention that the loss to san jose st was a game in which Hawaii lost the turnover battle 0-6 and lost the game by just 3 points. I would also like to mention that the nmsu win vs. the good pass attack is merely the result of nmsu lack of defense. They rank ninth in the nation in passing but hve defeated just two fbs schools all year.
It is obvious to me that Hawaii simply prefers to defend teams that either cannot throw or scheme to run first.
I also want to point out how badly skewed notre dame season averages are in the passing game due to notre dames last game against usc .
One point of note in favor of Hawaii in my opinion is the quality of their defensive line. This is what makes them tough to run on at times and these guys can really get after the passer. They average 2.6 sacks per game. Notre Dame is giving up 1.67 sacks per game … so they rate to get to clausen a few times in this game. Also want to point out that in my opinion , clausen can be flustered and Hawaii is going ot hit your ass , sometimes after the whistle, So a concern would be clausen getting a little bit of the happy feet.
Another concern that I have seen is that clausen does not seem to throw a good ball in the rain or wet. It really floats on him. Hawaii often has a soft mist rain that falls there ( its really beautiful and contributes to the number of rainbows that we see there when we are lucky enough to get out there ) and I could see that bothering him some if it happens.
In case you haven’t figured it out yet , I strongly believe that notre dame has success in the passing game.
ND rush offense vs. Hawaii rush defense--edge Hawaii
touched on this earlier but the Hawaii defensive line is a really strong unit. Tough kids. They have given up an average of 148 yards per game at 4.00 yards per carry ranking them slightly below average on paper but they have played a lot of very solid running games this year including Nevada , florida , boise st and Oregon st. I first noticed this the very first game of the year vs. florida where they more than held their own. Notre Dame is averaging 113 yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry. They have struggled to open big holes and they have also struggled to make big plays in the rushing game. The result is a lot of small but down and distance productivity out of them. Veikune is the monster that no one knows about. This guy gas 9 sacks , 16 tackles for loss , 71 tackles and 4 forced fumbles. He will be difficult to block all game whether running or passing for the irish. Most folks do know about Solomon elimimian who leads the team with 112 tackles. I have said it many times in this thread already but I really think you will all notice it when you watch this bowl game… Hawaii hits you. They hit you hard and often. The irish don’t really have a featured back. They attack you with a three headed monster of Aldridge Allen and hughes. All three are capable but none of them dynamic and they are running behind an average rushing oline at best. I give a little bit of an edge to Hawaii in this regard.
Hawaii rush offense vs. notre dame rush defense--edge notre dame
when you are in the bottom 25 in rushing attempts , yards , average per carry AND you play in the WAC there is a problem. Simply put the team can’t run the football. Their best option is “nacho” Libre and that is not saying much. He failed to reach 100 yards in any game this year , topping out with 88 against the putrid nmsu defense. The team itself averages just 99 yards a game ( ouch ! ) and just 3.3 yards per carry. Expecting them to have a ton of success here would mean intervention from the ghost of king Kamehameha. Notre Dame defense vs. the run has been average at best . They give up roughly 143 yards a game and 4.2 yards per carry. I have to give Notre Dame a clear edge here. Hawaii just has shown neither the ability nor the want to run the football..
Hawaii pass offense vs. notre dame pass defense --WASH
We know that Hawaii likes to throw it around so it is time to see how effective they should be at it. Hawaii is throwing the ball pretty effectively with 245.5 yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt. However , it might surprise you to know that Hawaii atttempts less passes per game than notre dame does. While Hawaii has put up decent numbers in the passing game the matchup is not a good one for them. Notre Dame has been rock solid in the pass defense department. The irish yield just 194.3 yards per game through the air and a VERY impressive 5.9 yards per pass attempt. However , it has to be noted that notre dame simply has not played that many pass first offenses this year. The exception might be purdue , who they defeated but who they also gave up 359 yards passing to… though purdue threw it an amazing 55 times in that game. Basically , what I am trying to say is that the notre dame pass defense is not as good as the numbers would indicate. Unfortunately for Hawaii , their numbers are also skewed by the types of teams they have played.. Nevada has the worst pass defense in the country , latech #117 , Idaho # 107 , Utah state # 99 ,…. If you look at Hawaii performances vs. pass defenses in notre dames statistical neighborhood you find they were not nearly as successful … again outside of the nmsu game. I am not giving a lot of weight to that game obviously. Just 181 at florida through the air with 3 interceptions , just 154 through the air at Oregon st , again with 3 interceptions. Just 225 vs. sjsu with 4 interceptions , just 170 vs. fresno state , just 232 vs. boise st with 5 interceptions , …you get the idea .. They don’t really perform in the passing game vs. the better pass defenses that are similar to notre dame. Some of this has been fixed up a little by Hawaii since Alexander seems to take better care of the ball on average than Funaki or Graunke did. But that is also something to keep an eye on here. Will McMackin give bowl snaps to multiple qb’s here ? With extra time to prepare does notre dame stand even a better chance of jumping warriors routes ? I think Hawaii can have some success throwing the ball but I would expect it to be less than their norm and to come at the price of an interception or two … or three. For that reason I am calling this a WASH. Stats without context would mean an edge for notre dame… but we are on it. Also want to point out that Hawaii leads the nation in sacks allowed. Ouch again
So here is the smilies checklist for this one
Athletes -- notre dame
Location --Hawaii
Motivation-- notre dame
Coaching -- WASH
Special teams --notre dame
Nd pass offense vs. Hawaii pass defense --notre dame
ND rush offense vs. Hawaii rush defense --Hawaii
Hawaii rush offense vs. notre dame rush defense --notre dame
Hawaii pass offense vs. notre dame pass defense-- WASH
By my handicapping , the wrong team is favored here. I have the better talent , with the better on the field matchups and by far the most motivation vs. one of the toughest home fields in the country and a team that seems to be getting better every week. I can do that with an underdog anytime.
I would look for more information on Floyds status for the game and for more information about how McMackin plans on using the quarterbacks here for more confidence , but I don’t see how I avoid betting the irish here.
I will be making a play on notre dame plus the points or possibly the money line.
- wanted to mention Hawaii penalties. Hawaii is the most penalized team in the nation. They end up on average to be negative 27 yards or so per game in penalty yardage.
-- I made up the nicknames Golden “dome” tate and “nacho” libre though it wouldn’t surprise me if one of them were true.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Next game on my breakdown post list is the Capital One Bowl in Orlando between Georgia and Michigan state.
current line of that game is Georgia Bulldogs -7.5
Also , wanted to mention that i will NOT be breaking down the New Mexico bowl featuring fresno state and colorado state. I did start a discussion thread about that though , and the information in there is pretty good. Also , i believe our mwc guru , jpicks has played colorado state in that game , so i would check out his thread for some good information on that game .. and pretty much any mwc game. Guy is super solid.
current line of that game is Georgia Bulldogs -7.5
Also , wanted to mention that i will NOT be breaking down the New Mexico bowl featuring fresno state and colorado state. I did start a discussion thread about that though , and the information in there is pretty good. Also , i believe our mwc guru , jpicks has played colorado state in that game , so i would check out his thread for some good information on that game .. and pretty much any mwc game. Guy is super solid.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Everything i have read says that he is expected to play .... but the way it is written each time does not instill 100 percent confidence in it. The good news is that they are so damn deep at that particular position. The unexpected way they lost him vs navy contributed to problems there i think but then when they had time to prepare guys for a bigger role the following week against the cuse , it worked out ok for them in the pass game ( ouch what a loss ) . USC defense is just so sick right now that i don't really know how to evaluate the finale.
You heard anything ?
I'm assuming that Floyd will play but haven't read any reports...appreciate you sharing with me the info. you have currently...very few times will Charlie Weis not be the inferior coach, but this game is one of them which makes me feel alright about playing on Notre Dame here...Floyd is extremely talented, as is Tate...
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yup , i almost gave hawaii a coaching edge by default ... but i have to blame the penalties and incredible number of turnovers by hawaii on coaching a little bit too.
Weiss is :hang:
Grimes is not a bad receiver either.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Not a lot of interest in the forum right now for CFB .. so really dont want to put in the effort of typing stuff out if no one is around to discuss it. I guess the excitement of line releases is over and it won't pick up again until it gets closer to kickoff of the first bowl.. Still capital One Bowl is next on the agenda but it may take me a few days.
Also , spent a lot of the day capping cbb ( finally a nice day in that sport , seems like forever since i had one ) so didnt have time for the football today. Back to the grind soon ....... just a bunch of crickets chirping around here.
Also , spent a lot of the day capping cbb ( finally a nice day in that sport , seems like forever since i had one ) so didnt have time for the football today. Back to the grind soon ....... just a bunch of crickets chirping around here.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Good stuff on hawaii game VK, I finally have some time to concentrate on football. I really can't disagree with anything that you stated there. I was expecting ND to be a short fav around 3 points. But as you mention maybe I don't give Hawaii HFA enough creedence. The few times I have seen Hawaii play this year, I was baffled at just how horrible the QB play has been for Hawaii. I believe Anderson was a Juco guy from Cali that was destined to finish his career at that level and somehow ended up at Hawaii. I think a big match-up will be Hawaii D-Line and how they pressure Clausen. They seem to get after the Qb pretty well and have gotten some good penetration. I just see a lot of favorable matchups as far as individual units go in ND's favor. Hawaii can't run the ball, and ND is pretty good against the apss. So strength against strength there. I just believe this is an absolute must win game for Weiss and ND.. "Must win" doesn't always translate into "will win" but it certainly provides fuel for a solid camp leading up to the game. I certainly lean ND in this spot and I agree with most if not all of the key points you made
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yup.
Pretty much agree with everything there. Motivation should be a huge angle .. i did read some player qoutes about wanting to see beautiful hawaiian women , so maybe there will be more distractions than i think. Some guys will just notivation in bowls and bet accordingly. any guy that does that is on notre dame here.
The hawaii pas rush vs the "let me get sacked again" man is a definite concern , as is hawaii steady improvement this year.
I'm playing the game , its a matter of when and in what form ( spread or ml ).
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I have a contact in Hawaii that I'm asking to compile some local stuff for me as far as preparation and motivational stuff goes when he sees anything. I'll make sure to drop it in your thread when he gives it to me.
Anderson(Hawaii QB) and Brandstater(Fresno QB) Canthrowell(Louisville QB) are playing the wrong sports. All 3 have the mechanics that would have made them fine pitchers on the baseball diamond
Anderson(Hawaii QB) and Brandstater(Fresno QB) Canthrowell(Louisville QB) are playing the wrong sports. All 3 have the mechanics that would have made them fine pitchers on the baseball diamond
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
AmishRakeFight
Member
At the end of the year ND banquet, Weis said that Floyd and starting lb Brian Smith would both be ready for the bowl game.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Kyle, in regards to your comment saying you will be backing ND, it's a matter of if it will be spread or ML.. I'm of the belief that a line like +1/1.5 then you would be better suited to take the ML at + money to eliminate the vig. I think there are exceptions to the rule if it's a total set in the 30's indicating a low scoring game where points will be at a premium. I don't see this game falling into the category of being a defensive battle so I'd be interested in the ML. JMO
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I agree and I believe math will be on your side this way ... it actually extends beyond the 1/1.5 area. Check this out when you get a chance. i wanted to track it this year as it went along but not surprisingly it became too time consuming. ....
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=60927
AmishRakeFight
Member
No problem guys. This was from an interview on friday. I'll post more info as it comes along.
http://www.southbendtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081214/SPORTS13/812140415/1021/Sports
HAPPY TO HAVE FLOYD BACK TOO: Sophomore receiver Golden Tate saw plenty of double-teams in the final two games of the season with freshman Michael Floyd out with an injury. But Floyd, who called himself day-to-day, is expected to relieve that pressure from Tate in the bowl game.
Tate said that the Warriors like to play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-8, but may have to change things with the return of Floyd.
“I think it’s going to force them to try different things because we’ve got Michael on the other side,” he said.
Clausen is obviously eager to have another downfield threat back.
“He’s a leading receiver,” Clausen said of Floyd. “He’s a playmaker just like Golden is and we’ve missed him.”
Also, if Clausen knows who will be calling the plays for Notre Dame in the bowl, he’s not telling.
“To tell you the truth, I have no clue.”
http://www.southbendtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081214/SPORTS13/812140415/1021/Sports
HAPPY TO HAVE FLOYD BACK TOO: Sophomore receiver Golden Tate saw plenty of double-teams in the final two games of the season with freshman Michael Floyd out with an injury. But Floyd, who called himself day-to-day, is expected to relieve that pressure from Tate in the bowl game.
Tate said that the Warriors like to play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-8, but may have to change things with the return of Floyd.
“I think it’s going to force them to try different things because we’ve got Michael on the other side,” he said.
Clausen is obviously eager to have another downfield threat back.
“He’s a leading receiver,” Clausen said of Floyd. “He’s a playmaker just like Golden is and we’ve missed him.”
Also, if Clausen knows who will be calling the plays for Notre Dame in the bowl, he’s not telling.
“To tell you the truth, I have no clue.”
Close to pulling the trigger on PSU soon. Joe Pa can't be denied in bowl games..and PSU has a competent offense...I remember last year I thought for sure aggie would roll them and Joe Pa comes out and surprises...same with FSU a few years ago..close games.
Speaking of FSU..Any thoughts on Wisky/FSU? WIsky is a great bowl team is well..as a dog..but god did this team underachieve.
Speaking of FSU..Any thoughts on Wisky/FSU? WIsky is a great bowl team is well..as a dog..but god did this team underachieve.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
For whatever reason .. and part of it is i want to finish other games before i do the bcs games .... i am putting off capping the rose bowl
i like wisconsin a little already in that game hunt because of coaching and some on the field mismatches but hey i am plodding along with the capping .. just finished capital one bowl and i am typing up that writeup now.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Finally finished typing the capital one bowl....
Capital One Bowl, Orlando Florida
Georgia Vs Michigan State
Current line : Georgia -7.5
Over/under : 54
Location - Edge Georgia
Obviously this is a proximity advantage for Georgia , who plays a game in Florida every year as a neutral site for the cocktail party. This game is in Orlando , so there is no doubt that Georgia should be well represented. Michigan State will be far less represented in this game and will be playing in SEC country. The travel is of course a hindrance. I think there is at a minimum a slight advantage for georgia here , if not a larger one. It does need to be noted that msu played in the champs bowl last year which was in Orlando as well so that helps with some of logistics issues for msu travel. After talking with huntdog and BAR via PM , It appears that msu is doing a decent job of selling tickets already so I expect some fans there. As I said , at a minimum this is a slight edge for UGA.
Coaching - WASH
It isn’t often that I don’t give either of these coaches a big advantage over their opponent but I have a hard time giving either a significant edge over the other. Richt and Dantonio are two of the better coaches in the game right now in my estimation. I think a person could make an argument for either guy to have a slight edge , but no argument can be made for a significant edge. Both are master motivators and decent X‘s and O‘s guys.
Motivation -- Edge Michigan State.
Dantonio is trying to build something in East Lansing and getting to a new years day bowl is certainly a step in the right direction. You really have a team that has over-achieved in a lot of ways with the Spartans. Most prognosticators picked Michigan state to finish 6<SUP>th</SUP> to 8<SUP>th</SUP> in the big ten this year and they exceeded those expectations and were probably the fourth best team in the conference behind the big 3 of Tosu , pennst , and iowa. They have to be pleased about the bowl bid they got despite the fact they were actually in the running for a share of the bigten title going into the final week of the season. Contrast this with the expectations of georgia who many believed were the favorites to win the SEC and the National championship before the season started. No Championship , no SEC championship , no SEC east championship , no BCS bowl. They are stuck with Michigan state in the capital one bowl. As I mentioned in the coaching section , Richt is a master motivator so I expect georgia to not be as flat as they might with another coach.. Does Georgia look at this as a way to save face on the season ?? Eh. Slight edge to msu in my opinion.
Strength of schedule / conference -- huge edge georgia
It isn’t just that Georgia played better teams , it is the context in which they played them. Just a very difficult schedule the way it was set up with snares and traps and sandwiches and everything else they could throw at these guys. For instance , here were their road games this year …south carolina , Arizona state , lsu , Kentucky , florida ( almost a neutral ) and auburn. Damn. They played 9 opponents this year that were ranked at some point in the season,. SEC , even down a bit this year , is tougher overall than the bigten. Michigan state did play some competition ooc in notre dame and cal but if you look at their road schedule you see some down years for the opponents. Most glaring are Michigan and Indiana …. And that is the other thing that bothers me about msu … they had a total of 4 road games this year. They did have two very high quality wins over iowa and Wisconsin but they were the lesser team in both of those games but got fortunate. Huge huge edge here for georgia.
Special Teams --WASH
FG kicking -- Blair Walsh does the duties for Georgia now that coutu has gone on to the seahawks. He has been adequate but not great. ,,,, connecting on 14 of 22 kicks this year. He has a big leg and has attempted five kicks of 50 or more yards this year making two of them with a long of 52. So he is 12 of 17 from under 50 yards wich is pretty good. The Spartans use Brett Swenson who has been spectacular all year and who has also been clutch.. Down 24-19 against Wisconsin he nailed a 50 yarder with roughly five mintues to go and then hit a 44 yarder with a few seconds to go to give them the win. He went 3 for 3 in a 16-13 win vs. iowa that was one of the differences in that contested game. He was 2 for 2 with a long of 39 last year in the bowl game in Orlando. This year he was an incredible 20 of 25. Given bowl experience , the fact that Walsh is just a freshman and the fact that swenson has been the better kicker all year … I give an edge to Michigan state in the fg kicking department.
Punting --Both teams sport two of the better punters in the nation . Brian mimbs for georgia averages 43.5 per kick and sophomore aaron bates for Michigan state averages 42.3 per kick. No real advantage here.
Return game --There is a significant edge to Georgia in this regard as they have one of the best return games in all of cfb. The Dawgs average an incredible 16 yards per return this year. The reason is the combination of logan gray and prince miller returning kicks. You may recall Millers big 92 yard punt return by miller in the Alabama game early in the fourth quarter which gave them a very brief glimmer of hope in that game. Michigan state is certainly adequate in the return game as well with otis wiley averaging over 10 a return but the overall advantage here goes clearly to georgia.
Kick blocking --WASH
Time to see how they will move the ball.
When georgia has the ball
Alright georgia has a lot of balance but due to a slew of injuries to the offensive line they have had to throw a lot more than we would have thought with Moreno in the backfield. Moreno has been rushing for 5.89 a carry and for 111.5 yards per game for an offense that generates 153.9 yards per game on the ground.. This puts their rushing game squarely in the average column and is a great example of showing how important the offensive line is to the running game. Saying that Moreno is back , or that spiller and davis are back for Clemson , I think people can get carried away with teams. Now , in the case of georgia the difference is that they lost key linemen to injury instead of graduation so It was less predictable. Still the rushing game is formidable enough and M Stafford at QB can be very effective at times. Quite frankly, the Georgia passing attack is one of the best in the nation at not only in yardage , but in efficiency and completion percentage. What makes this especially impressive to me is the quality of pass defenses that georgia has faced. They absolutely destroy the normal numbers given up by their opponents respective defenses. Georgia averages 280 yards a game at 9.1 per attempt with 24 td and 9 interceptions. To give you an idea of some of the quality pass defenses that Stafford has faced check this out. South carolina ranked 2<SUP>nd</SUP> , Tennessee ranked 4<SUP>th</SUP> , Vanderbilt ranked 18<SUP>th</SUP> , florida ranked 19<SUP>th</SUP> , Alabama 21<SUP>st</SUP> , auburn 22<SUP>nd</SUP> , Kentucky 29<SUP>th</SUP> , georgia tech 48<SUP>th</SUP> , Arizona state 61<SUP>st</SUP> , 82<SUP>nd</SUP> lsu and 119<SUP>th</SUP> central Michigan. Just incredible. Now some of the pass defense rankings are a result of some anemic passing offenses in the SEC but you get the idea. Georgia overachieves throwing the ball. The balance they offer is the key as most teams start with stopping Moreno as the basis point. Unfortunately when you do that you allow a guy who will be one of the top 3 qb’s taken in the nfl draft ( if not number one ) to throw to some big play WR in A.J. Green and Mohamed Massaquoi. Green had 55 catches for 951 yards. Over 17 yards per reception and 8 td to boot. A huge big play threat. On the other side Massaquoi is also a beast. 57 catches 910 yards and 8 td. Also has huge play potential averaging 15.96 per catch.
An unbelievably potent offense and a big reason why a lot folks thought that Georgia could overcome their schedule and play in a bcs title game. Can MSU stop them ? Probably not. Sparty gave up 210 yards a game through the air in a putrid pass offense conference and georgia is by far the most prolific they will have faced all year. What I find even more telling is the fact that the best pass offenses they faced this year they benefited from circumstances. The highest rated pass offense ( 27<SUP>th</SUP> ) that they played was florida atlantic and they played them in conditions that was very difficult to throw in , wet and rainy. The second highest ranked passing offense they played was purdue at 28<SUP>th</SUP>. Only they benefited again. They got to face siller instead of Painter at qb for the boilermakers in what was his first start ever on the road. 35<SUP>th</SUP> ranked pennst threw for over 400 yards and 5 td with snow on the ground and falling softly to the field at times. 46<SUP>th</SUP> ranked notre dame threw for 242 yards on them. 63<SUP>rd</SUP> ranked northwestern threw for 283 …… you get the idea… they don’t rate to stop the georgia pass attack.
So lets look at how msu matches up against the georgia rush game.
Michigan state ranks 72<SUP>nd</SUP> in the nation in rush defense allowing 147.6 yards per game at 4.25 per carry. Despite the fact that they are ranked worse in rush defense than pass defense , if you put it in proper perspective they are actually better in defending the run. The bigten is a run heavy conference with quality backs like beanie wells , Sutton , Greene ( who would have gotten my vote for heisman ) , sheets , hill and you can throw in the ooc game where they faced J best of CAL as well. So , I think you have to give msu a little bit more credit on their rush defense numbers. However , playing in the SEC , georgia has seen plenty of defenses that rate right there with msu at defending the run and it is hard for me to envision a scenario where msu completely shuts down Moreno. In fact , I am pretty confident that Moreno gets over a hundy here assuming he gets anywhere near his normal workload.
The bottom line is that I can’t figure out how msu stops georgia based on a season of games.
When msu has the ball
We know what this team is all about. Hand it off to ringer and see what happens and mix in a little hoyer to White and Cunningham to keep teams honest. The Spartans really overused Ringer some and the rest between the end of the year until the bowl game should do him well. Ringer is no mystery , third in the nation in raushing at 132.5 yards per game and at 4.3 a carry. ARE YOU READY FOR THEIR BIG PROBLEM ? As a team they average 138.4 . In other words , outside of ringer , you don’t have to worry about anything in the rushing game. They average less than a yard per carry ( 0.66 ) over the 107 carries that ringer is not responsible for. Yes some of that is the result of hoyer sacks, qb sneaks and end of game kneel downs but the reality is that the entire offense revolves getting it to him or faking it to him. Dawgs defense gives up 129.9 yards per game rushing and 3.85 yards per carry. Again , when put into context , these numbers aren’t bad at all .. Just an incredibly tough schedule that they played. There are concerns down the stretch though . Georgia gave up 409 yards rushing to GT and the option in the finale , 124 to auburns less than stellar run game , 226 to Kentucky , 185 to florida and 188 to lsu. So the rush defense was struggling a little bit at the end of the year. Still , the GT attack skews some of game stats for opposing defenses for both passing and rushing yards allowed. I expect ringer to get a big one or two , and have some success but doubt they dominate georgia at the line of scrimmage , especially when richt has a good amount of time to scheme defensively for a pretty straight forward attack.
If Georgia slows down ringer , can Hoyer pick up the slack ? Maybe. Msu is surprisingly balanced. The Spartans average 214 yards a game thru the air and 7.1 yards per attempt. Not bad at all. Most of it is predicated on play action and decent down and distance situations that they obtain from the power running game. Their pass attack is not nearly as effective if they get behind the chains. MSU has thrown two more interceptions than td but they do tend to lean heavy on ringer near the goalline and have only thrown 11 interceptions all year. So Hoyer has been careful with the ball even if not that productive in scoring TD. MSU has a group of fairly talented wideouts but nothing like the secondary of Georgia practices against every day. Georgia gives up 188.4 yards per game thru the air at 6.7 per attempt. The SEC is a run first league though , so one has to keep that in mind …. But there is nothing that makes me think that hoyer goes out there and outperforms Stafford.
I think that msu makes a play here and there and maybe even has a decent drive here and there ….. But I think with time to prepare the msu attack is not difficult for quality defenses to handle.
The smilies checklist
Location - UGA
Coaching - WASH
Motivation - Michigant st
SOS/conference - UGA
Special Teams - WASH
Georgia pass offense vs. mich st pass defense - UGA
Georgia rush offense vs. msu rush defense -- UGA
MSU pass offense vs. Georgia pass defense - WASH
MSU rush offense vs. georgia rush defense - WASH
Now , unlike the other games we have been capping , this one has more of the element of the spread involved. Most of the others that I have capped it is easy to just cap to the winner and that is the side. But for this game , if uga wins they still may not cover at a spread of 7.5. I make the line slightly higher than 7.5 after capping it out.
I had promised myself that I would not lay over a td in the bowl season but upon completion of this game , I do find myself leaning to the favortie.
One problem we have with this game is that it is hard to tell just how good the SEC is this year and LSU and Vanderbilt are the only SEC teams that sees bowl action before 2009 , so we won’t have that information to look at.
One thing that I would suggest for those that like msu in this game……. Look at the over. The total is 54 and I am extremely confident that uga moves the ball up and down the field on sparty. If you believe that msu plays within the spread , you MUST think this game exceeds the total imo.
Strong leans to uga and the over.
Capital One Bowl, Orlando Florida
Georgia Vs Michigan State
Current line : Georgia -7.5
Over/under : 54
Location - Edge Georgia
Obviously this is a proximity advantage for Georgia , who plays a game in Florida every year as a neutral site for the cocktail party. This game is in Orlando , so there is no doubt that Georgia should be well represented. Michigan State will be far less represented in this game and will be playing in SEC country. The travel is of course a hindrance. I think there is at a minimum a slight advantage for georgia here , if not a larger one. It does need to be noted that msu played in the champs bowl last year which was in Orlando as well so that helps with some of logistics issues for msu travel. After talking with huntdog and BAR via PM , It appears that msu is doing a decent job of selling tickets already so I expect some fans there. As I said , at a minimum this is a slight edge for UGA.
Coaching - WASH
It isn’t often that I don’t give either of these coaches a big advantage over their opponent but I have a hard time giving either a significant edge over the other. Richt and Dantonio are two of the better coaches in the game right now in my estimation. I think a person could make an argument for either guy to have a slight edge , but no argument can be made for a significant edge. Both are master motivators and decent X‘s and O‘s guys.
Motivation -- Edge Michigan State.
Dantonio is trying to build something in East Lansing and getting to a new years day bowl is certainly a step in the right direction. You really have a team that has over-achieved in a lot of ways with the Spartans. Most prognosticators picked Michigan state to finish 6<SUP>th</SUP> to 8<SUP>th</SUP> in the big ten this year and they exceeded those expectations and were probably the fourth best team in the conference behind the big 3 of Tosu , pennst , and iowa. They have to be pleased about the bowl bid they got despite the fact they were actually in the running for a share of the bigten title going into the final week of the season. Contrast this with the expectations of georgia who many believed were the favorites to win the SEC and the National championship before the season started. No Championship , no SEC championship , no SEC east championship , no BCS bowl. They are stuck with Michigan state in the capital one bowl. As I mentioned in the coaching section , Richt is a master motivator so I expect georgia to not be as flat as they might with another coach.. Does Georgia look at this as a way to save face on the season ?? Eh. Slight edge to msu in my opinion.
Strength of schedule / conference -- huge edge georgia
It isn’t just that Georgia played better teams , it is the context in which they played them. Just a very difficult schedule the way it was set up with snares and traps and sandwiches and everything else they could throw at these guys. For instance , here were their road games this year …south carolina , Arizona state , lsu , Kentucky , florida ( almost a neutral ) and auburn. Damn. They played 9 opponents this year that were ranked at some point in the season,. SEC , even down a bit this year , is tougher overall than the bigten. Michigan state did play some competition ooc in notre dame and cal but if you look at their road schedule you see some down years for the opponents. Most glaring are Michigan and Indiana …. And that is the other thing that bothers me about msu … they had a total of 4 road games this year. They did have two very high quality wins over iowa and Wisconsin but they were the lesser team in both of those games but got fortunate. Huge huge edge here for georgia.
Special Teams --WASH
FG kicking -- Blair Walsh does the duties for Georgia now that coutu has gone on to the seahawks. He has been adequate but not great. ,,,, connecting on 14 of 22 kicks this year. He has a big leg and has attempted five kicks of 50 or more yards this year making two of them with a long of 52. So he is 12 of 17 from under 50 yards wich is pretty good. The Spartans use Brett Swenson who has been spectacular all year and who has also been clutch.. Down 24-19 against Wisconsin he nailed a 50 yarder with roughly five mintues to go and then hit a 44 yarder with a few seconds to go to give them the win. He went 3 for 3 in a 16-13 win vs. iowa that was one of the differences in that contested game. He was 2 for 2 with a long of 39 last year in the bowl game in Orlando. This year he was an incredible 20 of 25. Given bowl experience , the fact that Walsh is just a freshman and the fact that swenson has been the better kicker all year … I give an edge to Michigan state in the fg kicking department.
Punting --Both teams sport two of the better punters in the nation . Brian mimbs for georgia averages 43.5 per kick and sophomore aaron bates for Michigan state averages 42.3 per kick. No real advantage here.
Return game --There is a significant edge to Georgia in this regard as they have one of the best return games in all of cfb. The Dawgs average an incredible 16 yards per return this year. The reason is the combination of logan gray and prince miller returning kicks. You may recall Millers big 92 yard punt return by miller in the Alabama game early in the fourth quarter which gave them a very brief glimmer of hope in that game. Michigan state is certainly adequate in the return game as well with otis wiley averaging over 10 a return but the overall advantage here goes clearly to georgia.
Kick blocking --WASH
Time to see how they will move the ball.
When georgia has the ball
Alright georgia has a lot of balance but due to a slew of injuries to the offensive line they have had to throw a lot more than we would have thought with Moreno in the backfield. Moreno has been rushing for 5.89 a carry and for 111.5 yards per game for an offense that generates 153.9 yards per game on the ground.. This puts their rushing game squarely in the average column and is a great example of showing how important the offensive line is to the running game. Saying that Moreno is back , or that spiller and davis are back for Clemson , I think people can get carried away with teams. Now , in the case of georgia the difference is that they lost key linemen to injury instead of graduation so It was less predictable. Still the rushing game is formidable enough and M Stafford at QB can be very effective at times. Quite frankly, the Georgia passing attack is one of the best in the nation at not only in yardage , but in efficiency and completion percentage. What makes this especially impressive to me is the quality of pass defenses that georgia has faced. They absolutely destroy the normal numbers given up by their opponents respective defenses. Georgia averages 280 yards a game at 9.1 per attempt with 24 td and 9 interceptions. To give you an idea of some of the quality pass defenses that Stafford has faced check this out. South carolina ranked 2<SUP>nd</SUP> , Tennessee ranked 4<SUP>th</SUP> , Vanderbilt ranked 18<SUP>th</SUP> , florida ranked 19<SUP>th</SUP> , Alabama 21<SUP>st</SUP> , auburn 22<SUP>nd</SUP> , Kentucky 29<SUP>th</SUP> , georgia tech 48<SUP>th</SUP> , Arizona state 61<SUP>st</SUP> , 82<SUP>nd</SUP> lsu and 119<SUP>th</SUP> central Michigan. Just incredible. Now some of the pass defense rankings are a result of some anemic passing offenses in the SEC but you get the idea. Georgia overachieves throwing the ball. The balance they offer is the key as most teams start with stopping Moreno as the basis point. Unfortunately when you do that you allow a guy who will be one of the top 3 qb’s taken in the nfl draft ( if not number one ) to throw to some big play WR in A.J. Green and Mohamed Massaquoi. Green had 55 catches for 951 yards. Over 17 yards per reception and 8 td to boot. A huge big play threat. On the other side Massaquoi is also a beast. 57 catches 910 yards and 8 td. Also has huge play potential averaging 15.96 per catch.
An unbelievably potent offense and a big reason why a lot folks thought that Georgia could overcome their schedule and play in a bcs title game. Can MSU stop them ? Probably not. Sparty gave up 210 yards a game through the air in a putrid pass offense conference and georgia is by far the most prolific they will have faced all year. What I find even more telling is the fact that the best pass offenses they faced this year they benefited from circumstances. The highest rated pass offense ( 27<SUP>th</SUP> ) that they played was florida atlantic and they played them in conditions that was very difficult to throw in , wet and rainy. The second highest ranked passing offense they played was purdue at 28<SUP>th</SUP>. Only they benefited again. They got to face siller instead of Painter at qb for the boilermakers in what was his first start ever on the road. 35<SUP>th</SUP> ranked pennst threw for over 400 yards and 5 td with snow on the ground and falling softly to the field at times. 46<SUP>th</SUP> ranked notre dame threw for 242 yards on them. 63<SUP>rd</SUP> ranked northwestern threw for 283 …… you get the idea… they don’t rate to stop the georgia pass attack.
So lets look at how msu matches up against the georgia rush game.
Michigan state ranks 72<SUP>nd</SUP> in the nation in rush defense allowing 147.6 yards per game at 4.25 per carry. Despite the fact that they are ranked worse in rush defense than pass defense , if you put it in proper perspective they are actually better in defending the run. The bigten is a run heavy conference with quality backs like beanie wells , Sutton , Greene ( who would have gotten my vote for heisman ) , sheets , hill and you can throw in the ooc game where they faced J best of CAL as well. So , I think you have to give msu a little bit more credit on their rush defense numbers. However , playing in the SEC , georgia has seen plenty of defenses that rate right there with msu at defending the run and it is hard for me to envision a scenario where msu completely shuts down Moreno. In fact , I am pretty confident that Moreno gets over a hundy here assuming he gets anywhere near his normal workload.
The bottom line is that I can’t figure out how msu stops georgia based on a season of games.
When msu has the ball
We know what this team is all about. Hand it off to ringer and see what happens and mix in a little hoyer to White and Cunningham to keep teams honest. The Spartans really overused Ringer some and the rest between the end of the year until the bowl game should do him well. Ringer is no mystery , third in the nation in raushing at 132.5 yards per game and at 4.3 a carry. ARE YOU READY FOR THEIR BIG PROBLEM ? As a team they average 138.4 . In other words , outside of ringer , you don’t have to worry about anything in the rushing game. They average less than a yard per carry ( 0.66 ) over the 107 carries that ringer is not responsible for. Yes some of that is the result of hoyer sacks, qb sneaks and end of game kneel downs but the reality is that the entire offense revolves getting it to him or faking it to him. Dawgs defense gives up 129.9 yards per game rushing and 3.85 yards per carry. Again , when put into context , these numbers aren’t bad at all .. Just an incredibly tough schedule that they played. There are concerns down the stretch though . Georgia gave up 409 yards rushing to GT and the option in the finale , 124 to auburns less than stellar run game , 226 to Kentucky , 185 to florida and 188 to lsu. So the rush defense was struggling a little bit at the end of the year. Still , the GT attack skews some of game stats for opposing defenses for both passing and rushing yards allowed. I expect ringer to get a big one or two , and have some success but doubt they dominate georgia at the line of scrimmage , especially when richt has a good amount of time to scheme defensively for a pretty straight forward attack.
If Georgia slows down ringer , can Hoyer pick up the slack ? Maybe. Msu is surprisingly balanced. The Spartans average 214 yards a game thru the air and 7.1 yards per attempt. Not bad at all. Most of it is predicated on play action and decent down and distance situations that they obtain from the power running game. Their pass attack is not nearly as effective if they get behind the chains. MSU has thrown two more interceptions than td but they do tend to lean heavy on ringer near the goalline and have only thrown 11 interceptions all year. So Hoyer has been careful with the ball even if not that productive in scoring TD. MSU has a group of fairly talented wideouts but nothing like the secondary of Georgia practices against every day. Georgia gives up 188.4 yards per game thru the air at 6.7 per attempt. The SEC is a run first league though , so one has to keep that in mind …. But there is nothing that makes me think that hoyer goes out there and outperforms Stafford.
I think that msu makes a play here and there and maybe even has a decent drive here and there ….. But I think with time to prepare the msu attack is not difficult for quality defenses to handle.
The smilies checklist
Location - UGA
Coaching - WASH
Motivation - Michigant st
SOS/conference - UGA
Special Teams - WASH
Georgia pass offense vs. mich st pass defense - UGA
Georgia rush offense vs. msu rush defense -- UGA
MSU pass offense vs. Georgia pass defense - WASH
MSU rush offense vs. georgia rush defense - WASH
Now , unlike the other games we have been capping , this one has more of the element of the spread involved. Most of the others that I have capped it is easy to just cap to the winner and that is the side. But for this game , if uga wins they still may not cover at a spread of 7.5. I make the line slightly higher than 7.5 after capping it out.
I had promised myself that I would not lay over a td in the bowl season but upon completion of this game , I do find myself leaning to the favortie.
One problem we have with this game is that it is hard to tell just how good the SEC is this year and LSU and Vanderbilt are the only SEC teams that sees bowl action before 2009 , so we won’t have that information to look at.
One thing that I would suggest for those that like msu in this game……. Look at the over. The total is 54 and I am extremely confident that uga moves the ball up and down the field on sparty. If you believe that msu plays within the spread , you MUST think this game exceeds the total imo.
Strong leans to uga and the over.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
awesome stuff in the UGA/MSU write up. I think you are right on about two of the better coaches and terrific motivators. I lean OVER in this one as I'm not wild about laying points with UGA's defensive struggles. Hard to believe that GA had 18 season ending injuries this season and they still did as well as they did. Brutal schedule as you talked about.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I know that i had discussed with a few of you the possibility of De'Andre Brown being out for the bowl game but it is apparently not the case. A little late finding this but here it is anyway.
<TABLE class=article id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_DataList3 style="WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">Most Recent Player News & Notes
</TD></TR><TR><TD>12/09/2008 DeAndre Brown cleared for bowl game
Southern Miss wide receiver DeAndre Brown will not be suspended for the New Orleans Bowl against Troy. Brown was ejected for fighting in the SMU game on Dec. 29. Brown has had a sensational freshman campaign and is a top 20 fantasy receiver for the bowl season. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=article id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_DataList3 style="WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">Most Recent Player News & Notes
</TD></TR><TR><TD>12/09/2008 DeAndre Brown cleared for bowl game
Southern Miss wide receiver DeAndre Brown will not be suspended for the New Orleans Bowl against Troy. Brown was ejected for fighting in the SMU game on Dec. 29. Brown has had a sensational freshman campaign and is a top 20 fantasy receiver for the bowl season. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Also from ETG thread concerning academic issues for the gamecocks in the iowa game that i have bet on already........ he has a great thread going btw.
Cook OUT for Bowl Game
David Cloninger
GamecockCentral.com Staff Writer
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>Talk about it in The Insiders Forum
South Carolina safety Emanuel Cook, the Gamecocks' leading tackler, is academically ineligible for the Outback Bowl and his career at USC may be over.
"Right now, it appears that Emanuel Cook didn't make it," coach Steve Spurrier said after Tuesday's practice. "He's the only one right now that it appears did not pass the six hours.
"As we know right now, he will not play in the game."
Cook had already filed exploratory paperwork with the NFL Draft committee, inquiring about his potential position that would lead him to forfeit his senior year. He may be gone for sure after Tuesday's announcement.
"It's disappointing that he did not think of his teammates or his university," Spurrier said. "It's not hard to pass six hours.
"He did not put much effort in, it appears."
Stay tuned to GamecockCentral.com for a complete practice recap.
He also added this .........
from sources on the team...
CC Whitlock is in serious doubts
Dion is in serious doubts
Mike Davis, Jasper, D Lindsey are questionable as well....
No Brinkley would be worth a line move
ETG is the resident gamecocks expert for those new to the site.
Cook OUT for Bowl Game
David Cloninger
GamecockCentral.com Staff Writer
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>Talk about it in The Insiders Forum
South Carolina safety Emanuel Cook, the Gamecocks' leading tackler, is academically ineligible for the Outback Bowl and his career at USC may be over.
"Right now, it appears that Emanuel Cook didn't make it," coach Steve Spurrier said after Tuesday's practice. "He's the only one right now that it appears did not pass the six hours.
"As we know right now, he will not play in the game."
Cook had already filed exploratory paperwork with the NFL Draft committee, inquiring about his potential position that would lead him to forfeit his senior year. He may be gone for sure after Tuesday's announcement.
"It's disappointing that he did not think of his teammates or his university," Spurrier said. "It's not hard to pass six hours.
"He did not put much effort in, it appears."
Stay tuned to GamecockCentral.com for a complete practice recap.
He also added this .........
from sources on the team...
CC Whitlock is in serious doubts
Dion is in serious doubts
Mike Davis, Jasper, D Lindsey are questionable as well....
No Brinkley would be worth a line move
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