Bowl Write-ups and Hopefully Feedback

8. Thursday: Game Above Sports Bowl(Detroit): Toledo +7 v Pitt: I found this one at -110 at bet Rivers, but it looks like there's a little extra juice required to get 7 at some other books. This is a case of two teams who have both underachieved in bowls, but in this specific role, I'm comfortable with Toledo. Jason Candle has not been good in bowls ATS. He's 1-5, but the one win ATS is the only bowl he's been an underdog in, and that was last year when Toledo lost by 1 getting 3 in Craig Bohl's swan song with Wyoming, which I thought was a pretty good effort by the Rockets. Pitt's Narduzzi is also bad in bowls, but that's especially true when favored as the Panthers are 0-2 in that role. Candle also has been comfortable as a dog in recent years, having gone 6-1 ATS in the rare times he's been dogged since 2021. Pitt started out hot, going 7-0, but that turned out to be a lot of smoke and mirrors, as he wheels feel off, especially offensively soon after that. Pitt under QB Eli Holstein and with the contributions of do everything RB Desmond Reid were very productive on offense in those first 7 games, ranking highly in most offensive categories. Both Holstein and Redi got hurt later however, and Reid, being only 5'8" 170 wore down and missed the finale vs BC. Holstein is questionable for this game and Reid is apparently going to play, but I don't think that's a slam dunk for either, especially Holstein, who Pitt is counting on next year. If he doesn't go, their backup Nate Yarnell, who has quite a bit of experience and wasn't bad in relief of Holstein this year is in the transfer portal, so they'll be in rough shape if he doesn't play. Also, Toledo hasn't really been stung by any meaningful opt outs or transfers, and their defense was pretty stout this year, ranking 24th in overall yards per play and 21st against the run. Pitt will have to beat them through the air I believe and their top receiver Kanata Mumpfield is opting out of the game. Defensively, Pitt was very stout against the run, but Toledo couldn't run it at all this year, so they probably won't even try. They do have some juice in the pass game with Tucker Gleeson(22/7 ratio) and pass catchers Jerjuan Newton(almost 1000 yards, 1st team all MAC) and Anthony Torres(also first team all MAC with 8 TDs). Throw in Junior Vanderross who caught 70 passes, and they have some weapons to throw at Pitt. With uncertainty with their injuries and a pretty clear motivational edge for Toledo(why would Pitt be jacked for this game?) I think there's value in these points. The last time Pitt was in Detroit they barely escaped Eastern Michigan 34-30 as a 13 point favorite. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Toledo win this one.
 
Thursday: Rate Bowl. K State v Rutgers: No play here. I was hoping to find reason to back Rutgers here I like the motivation for the Knights and Schiano is 6-2 ATS in bowls. There also does not appear to be any significant losses for Rutgers in the portal or with opt outs although RB Kyle Monongai hasn't decided whether he'll play. I really couldn't get to a comfort level with this one though. Even though the line is 7, this Rutgers defense has been bad against the run, and even though DJ Giddens is opting out, there's enough on that K State defense to expose what has been a pretty bad defense all year for Rutgers. They're 100th in yards per play against and 102nd against the run and they haven't been good against the pass either. K State is much more consistent defensively, and I can see Avery Johnson running all over the Knights at the outset, and he's gotten better throwing it this year as well. Defensively, K state is very good against the run, so Athan Kaliakmanis will have to be effective, and although he's gotten better, I don't know that he can put up enough points to trade scores with K State. If this was a regular season game at Rutgers with a line in this neighborhood, I'd probably be on the Wildcats, but with the distractions around a bowl and with Giddens and a couple linemen out, I'd rather not lay a full TD since I think we'll see a good effort out of Rutgers. I'd probably lay if forced to make a play on this, but I'm passing.
 
9. Thursday: 68 Ventures Bowl. Bowling Green -7(-120) v Arkansas State(BR): Here are the season long rankings of Arkansas State on defense, and I think you may have heard this before from me this year: Overall yards per play -129th, Yards per rush allowed-132nd, yards per pass attempt allowed-118th, 3rd down defense-125th. You get the picture. They haven't stopped anyone all year. They aren't much good on offense either, finishing 89th in yards per play, 104th in yards per pass attempt and middle of the road numbers on the ground and on 3rd down. They also were outgained in the Sun Belt by 61 yards per game. How are they in a bowl? Good question. Their 6 non Southern Miss wins came by a grand total of 26 points, and those were against teams whose average Sagarin rating was in the 130's. They will be facing a Bowling Green team that has moved the ball on much more competent defenses than this Red Wolves outfit and their best player, Harold Fannin, who caught 100 balls for almost 1400 yards is playing. To say that Arky State will be lost trying to cover him is the understatement of the century. Penn State gave up 12 catches for 138 yards to him. I think we can expect some gaudy numbers from him in this one. A couple guys from BG have moved on, but not a ton, and their defense was among the better in the MAC, ranking 37th on overall yards per play and 19th against the pass, not to mention 17th on 3rd down. Fannin is also only a few yards and 12 catches away from the all time NCAA record for tight ends in a season, so I'd bet the BG squad would like to get him that record. If they do, there will be points on the board for the Falcons, that's for sure. The coaches ATS records are working against us in this one because Scot Loeffler hasn't covered either of his two bowls, and Butch Jones is 6-2 in his career, but I think there's a lot going for BG in this one. These types of bowl games have gone the favorites' way recently, especially this year, and QB Connor Bazelek has been good enough to show he can torch a bad defense like this one. I'm fading the team that in my estimation is probably the worst bowl team that qualified this year.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Thursday: 68 Ventures Bowl. Bowling Green -7(-120) v Arkansas State(BR): Here are the season long rankings of Arkansas State on defense, and I think you may have heard this before from me this year: Overall yards per play -129th, Yards per rush allowed-132nd, yards per pass attempt allowed-118th, 3rd down defense-125th. You get the picture. They haven't stopped anyone all year. They aren't much good on offense either, finishing 89th in yards per play, 104th in yards per pass attempt and middle of the road numbers on the ground and on 3rd down. They also were outgained in the Sun Belt by 61 yards per game. How are they in a bowl? Good question. Their 6 non Southern Miss wins came by a grand total of 26 points, and those were against teams whose average Sagarin rating was in the 130's. They will be facing a Bowling Green team that has moved the ball on much more competent defenses than this Red Wolves outfit and their best player, Harold Fannin, who caught 100 balls for almost 1400 yards is playing. To say that Arky State will be lost trying to cover him is the understatement of the century. Penn State gave up 12 catches for 138 yards to him. I think we can expect some gaudy numbers from him in this one. A couple guys from BG have moved on, but not a ton, and their defense was among the better in the MAC, ranking 37th on overall yards per play and 19th against the pass, not to mention 17th on 3rd down. Fannin is also only a few yards and 12 catches away from the all time NCAA record for tight ends in a season, so I'd bet the BG squad would like to get him that record. If they do, there will be points on the board for the Falcons, that's for sure. The coaches ATS records are working against us in this one because Scot Loeffler hasn't covered either of his two bowls, and Butch Jones is 6-2 in his career, but I think there's a lot going for BG in this one. These types of bowl games have gone the favorites' way recently, especially this year, and QB Connor Bazelek has been good enough to show he can torch a bad defense like this one. I'm fading the team that in my estimation is probably the worst bowl team that qualified this year.
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Been capping this one tonight a bit.

Arky St I saw live a few times -- wasn't pretty.
 
Shiano bowls is a definite factor but you hit the nail on the head with that defense man.

That team was very hard to predict the last two months.

I decided to stay far away from their games the last month. I can flip a coin all day.
 
10. Military Bowl Friday: Navy +3 v Oklahoma(BOL): I'm aware that there was a much more advantageous line available earlier if you liked Navy. I actually took 7.5 back on the 16th, but i would still recommend backing the Middies at 3. There's always an edge for the service academies in Bowl games. Over the last 10 years, the academies are 14-3 ATS and Navy is 5-0. Why is this? Usually it's a combination of motivation and preparation or lack thereof by the opponents. In this case, Navy is motivated because they are disciplined and playing for each other. There aren't any transfer portal concerns(usually) and all of their time is spent preparing for the game. These days, that's not the case with their opponents and it's certainly not the case with Oklahoma this year. The Oklahoma staff is now under pressure after such a disappointing season so they are in acquisition mode. Also, there isn't a lot of loyalty to the players that delivered a 6-6 season for them, so those guys are hitting the transfer portal. Preparation is especially important when the opponent is Navy, with how much uniqueness is involved in their scheme and how important staying committed to roles is. Several defensive players will be out for Oklahoma, including their 2 most important, defensive captain linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman who are both opting out. navy also has proven themselves to be more than just an option team, and Blake Horvath(who is now healthy) was effective running and throwing, and they have several options in addition to him, namely Eli Heidenreich, who also catches the ball and Alex Tecza at fullback. Navy's defense isn't great, but this Oklahoma offense is putrid, having ranked 131st in yards per play, 113th in rush offense, 129th throwing the ball and 125th on 3rd down. They will also be without a ton of players on offense, so the figure to operate even less efficiently as usual. All of their receivers of any consequence are out. The only possible player who has accomplished anything on offense is Deion Burks, and he might not play either due to injury. Like I mentioned, navy is multiple on offense, and they'll be getting some new players on defense who have likely not spent a ton of time being drilled on this Navy offense. Even of they find a way to stop Horvath and company, unless Michael Hawkins just runs like a madman and breaks big plays on scrambles, I can't see the OU offense being good in this one. Best to keep it simple...back the service academy in a bowl, and even better that we get a FG.
 
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I appreciate the write-ups. You have a good read on most games. I will comment on finding the best 12 teams. I heard on a podcast that even when the playoffs were just 4 teams that 50% of the games still ended in 20 point victories. I did some research.

Last year Michigan beat Washington by 21.
Two years ago Georgia crushed TCU by 58.
Three years ago Ohio St beat Clemson by 21 and then Alabama beat Ohio State by 28.
Four years ago LSU beat Oklahoma by 35 and then LSU beat Clemson by 17.
Five years ago Clemson beat Notre Dame by 27 and then Clemson beat Alabama by 28.

I could go on and on. For some reason there are blowouts every year in the college football playoffs. For some people to say that the teams that lost in blowout fashion this year don't belong in the playoffs is simply unfair. It happens every year. That's like saying Alabama didn't deserve to be in the championship in 2019 because they lost to Clemson by 28. Sometimes things can unravel in a heartbeat, especially when you are playing a really good team, and you are not accustomed to losing.

Good luck and Happy Holidays!
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
I appreciate the write-ups. You have a good read on most games. I will comment on finding the best 12 teams. I heard on a podcast that even when the playoffs were just 4 teams that 50% of the games still ended in 20 point victories. I did some research.

Last year Michigan beat Washington by 21.
Two years ago Georgia crushed TCU by 58.
Three years ago Ohio St beat Clemson by 21 and then Alabama beat Ohio State by 28.
Four years ago LSU beat Oklahoma by 35 and then LSU beat Clemson by 17.
Five years ago Clemson beat Notre Dame by 27 and then Clemson beat Alabama by 28.

I could go on and on. For some reason there are blowouts every year in the college football playoffs. For some people to say that the teams that lost in blowout fashion this year don't belong in the playoffs is simply unfair. It happens every year. That's like saying Alabama didn't deserve to be in the championship in 2019 because they lost to Clemson by 28. Sometimes things can unravel in a heartbeat, especially when you are playing a really good team, and you are not accustomed to losing.

Good luck and Happy Holidays!
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Adding to your point.

Non championship playoff semi-finals: (2014-23)

20 games- 17.85 avg margin of victory
11 games at least decided by 17pts or more (55%)
12 games at least decided by 11 pts or more (60%)
8 games decided by 20pts or more (40%)

20 games on neutral fields with teams supposedly closer to each other still resulted in over half the games being blowouts.
 
Birmingham Bowl Georgia Tech -2.5(-120) v Vanderbilt: Not recommending a side for this one officially, although I lean to Tech under a FG.I really hate to go against either of these teams because I've been betting on both all year long, and I certainly don't have much desire to fade whoever the dog might be, in this case Vandy. However, I do think Georgia Tech is the better team. Outside of WR Eric Singleton for Georgia Tech, there aren't a ton of high impact guys not playing, but Tech also will be without their best pass rusher Romello Hight and their starting left tackle. Vandy is also down a couple starters, but it looks like Tech might be hit a little harder. Both Diego Pavia and Haynes King appear to be at full strength, which is great because both teams are totally different teams without them. Kudos to Vandy for figuring out ways to win all year despite being outgained most of the time, but the wheels kind of came off for them at the end of the year. Tennessee came in and really took it to their defense after LSU outgained them by almost 200 yards and South Carolina did the same the week before that. Vandy was a great play as a significant dog, and when I say that I mean a TD or more, but they aren't getting that here. Defensively, they ended up 132nd on 3rd down and that does not bode well against a methodical offense like Georgia Tech that can run it. Vandy has had a nice coaching edge in most of their games this year, but I don't think they'll have that against Key and Buster Faulkner here. I think Tech probably wins his game, but I don't believe in it enough to list it as an official play or anything like that because I just don't have the heart to go against either one of these teams. We should also remember that Vandy has gone toe to toe with some very good teams, and the results are always better than the box score. Same goes for Tech for that matter. It's a shame they're playing each other.
 
11. Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech +1.5 v Arkansas(BR) : I'm surprised that Arkansas is favored in this one. I know it's SEC v Big 12, and QB Behren Morton has been ruled out due to injury. As a result, Will Hammond will start for Tech, but you could do a lot worse than him. He played most of their loss on the road at TCU and played well, although his late fumble helped the Red Raiders fall short in that one. The game threw him into the fire, however, and he performed well throughout the game, so he's tested and he definitely looked the part throwing it and by being able to run a bit. TT RB Tajh Brooks is a huge part of the Tech offense, and he hasn't been confirmed yet, but based on what I've read about him I think he'll be in there. They'll be without 1,000 yard WR Josh Kelley who opted out, but the rest of their receiving corps should be in there, and they have 3 guys who toped 400 yards outside of Kelly. On the Arkansas side, pretty much the only contributor who will be playing is QB Taylen Green, and that's not necessarily a good thing because he's been all over the place much of the year. Receivers Andrew Armstrong and Isaac Sategna and stud TE Luke Hasz are all gone, as is RB JaQuinden Jackson who scored 15 TDs for the Hogs. Their OL has also been ravaged as their 3 top guys are gone. They've lost a bunch defensively as well, and this wasn't a great defense to begin with. Tech's defense wasn't great, but they found a way to get off the field on 3rd down(16th) and and they were really good on 3rd down on the offensive side too(8th). Tech really did have a good year, going 8-4 with wins at Iowa State and against Arizona State. I'm a little concerned that they've lost both coordinators(OC Kittley took the HC job at FAU and they fired DC Tim DeRuyter), but it seems like there's a lot more in the form of rats jumping ship on the Arkansas side. I'm not optimistic that Taylen Green will be able to carry a big load for them offensively. He is turnover prone and might be even more so if the rainy weather forecast in Memphis hold true. Too many missing pieces for Arkansas in a game I handicap as pretty even if these two teams were at full strength. With the losses for Arkansas, I'll go with Tech and I'll be happy to scrape up the points that come with it.
 
The Syracuse/ Washington State game (Holiday Bowl) has gotten all the way up to 17 in some spots. I can see it being a complete blowout because Washington State has no coaches and lost all of their best offensive players, but I don't want to get involved with a line that high. Syracuse's defense is terrible, and although Wazzou's defense is pretty bad as well, they have been ok against the pass, which is how Syracuse moves the ball. Washington State's main weakness on defense is their run D, and Syracuse cannot run it to save their lives. I wouldn't be surprised if Syracuse blows them out because I think Fran Brown has their energy up, but I'm not laying that much. I laid 10.5 about a week ago so I'll stick with that.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
The Syracuse/ Washington State game (Holiday Bowl) has gotten all the way up to 17 in some spots. I can see if being a complete blowout because Washington State has no coaches and lost all of their best offensive players, but I don't want to get involved with a line that high. Syracuse's defense is terrible, and although Wazzou's defense is pretty bad as well, they have been ok against the pass, which is how Syracuse moves the ball. Washington State's main weakness on defense is their run D, and Syracuse cannot run it to save their lives. I wouldn't be surprised if Syracuse blows hem out because I think Fran Brown has their energy up, but I'm not laying that much. I laid 10.5 about a week ago so I'll stick with that.
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Smart.

I have Cuse in 3 ML parlays with different combos (a few of last week's playoff games+ Bama) when the line was below 14. I wouldn't let the points though with the defense at these numbers...

We've seen wounded tigers surprise before...
 
Merry Christmas Brass, appreciate all your hard work and insight during the year and hope you and your family have a great holiday season!
 
12. Las Vegas Bowl: USC +4.5(-115) v Texas A&M (BOL) : Quite a few starters from USC are out in this one, especially a lot of skill guys. Miller Moss is off to Louisville(good fit), 3 of their top 5 receivers are gone and Woody Marks and backup RB Quinten Joyner are not playing. However, they still have many of the players who made a difference when they played Notre Dame to a standstill the last week of the season are suiting up in this one. Makai Lemon is playing and he ended up being their most productive receiver and he had 9 catches for 133 yards against a Notre Dame defense that hadn't been torched like that all year. Bryan Jackson will be the primary running back and he went for 71 yards on 6 carries in that game. Jordan Maiava threw for 360 yards and 3 TDs and two unlucky pick 6's(one thrown by Maiava) kept USC from being in position to knock off ND. A&M doesn't have a ton of opt outs, but 2 of their best defensive players, Nick Scourton and Shemar Stewart are out. Connor Weigman transferred to Houston, so they'll have to rely on Marcel Reed, who has been hit or miss throwing the ball, with more misses than hits. LeVeon Moss is also out, so they're down to Armani Daniels, who is a 4 yards per carry guy. I like the USC defensive staff to be able to scheme up Reed, and I think Lincoln Riley will be able to get this offense going with the guys he's got available. I cap this as a tossup, so I see the 4.5 points as very valuable. I think A&M has been a bit overrated this year, and I don't have a lot of faith in their offense with Reed. Like the points here.
 
No interest at all in the UConn/UNC game on Saturday. I would have interest in UConn but not at 3. UNC won't have Hampton at RB, and UConn has been pretty good against bad competition on defense. I don't think this UNC offense is good enough to assume SOS will make a big difference, but I'd still want more than 3
 
Narduzzi the absolute worst, what are they watching in practice that would ever make them start Lynch over Dugger? Then the play calling at the end of regulation with a back like Reid they try to throw a tackle eligible pass on 3 down and then don't go on 4th down from the 1. Just terrible! But glad to get the cover.
 
Timh said:
Narduzzi the absolute worst, what are they watching in practice that would ever make them start Lynch over Dugger? Then the play calling at the end of regulation with a back like Reid they try to throw a tackle eligible pass on 3 down and then don't go on 4th down from the 1. Just terrible! But glad to get the cover.
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Both teams were terrible. Could not believe Narduzzi kicked an 18 yard FG to go to a third OT where they move to all 2PT conversions. One try from the One? Can't do that because we can't wait to take multiple chances from the 3. Absurd. But yes, I'll take the cover. :)
 
13. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College +4 v Nebraska(BOL) : First of all, this game profiles as a close one, so I lean to Nebraska's opponent on principle. In all seriousness, I definitely think the points will be valuable here because I have these teams very evenly matched on paper, and I think the Eagles will be properly motivated for a couple reasons. One, Bill O'Brien is in his first season and bowl teams under a first year coach typically are on a positive progression. Also, BC went to Grayson James at QB late in the year and had a nice bounce offensively. Even though previous starter Thomas Castellanos was pretty solid and has ended up at Florida State, it seems as though O'Brien made that move as a "in the best interests of the team" reason, which bodes well for their psyche going forward. Both teams have some defections, but I wouldn't say that either was severely injured by the departures. Neither team is going to be able to run on the other, and I actually like BC's chances to move the ball through the air better than Nebraska, even though I'm pretty high on Raiola. Ultimately it's pretty much a dead even game, so I'll take the points and the team I'm convinced is motivated. I don't think Nebraska is UNMOTIVATED per se, but I like BC's situation better and I'm pretty sure they are far from overmatched in this one.
 
New Mexico Bowl. TCU v Louisiana Lafayette. No play here. TCU is about a 13 point favorite. If I knew LaLa QB Ben Wooldridge would be back for this one I'd have some interest in LaLa, but the line would probably come down. LaLa plays the pass well on defense which is easily he major strength of the TCU offense with Josh Hoover. Too much uncertainty here though...not much interest in this one.
 
Pop Tarts Bowl: Miami v Iowa State: Looks like a lot of the best players for both teams are going to play in this one and both see value in winning it. I actually show quite a bit of value in Miami by the numbers, but there is no way in hell that I would lay points with Miami, and certainly not Cristobal. Miami is 1-9 in their last 10 ATS in bowl games, and teams that had legit playoff hopes and fell short are usually not good bets in bowl like this. Not interested in Iowa State because they staggered around toward the end of the season and like I said, the matchup on paper isn't good for them.
 
Br@ssknux said:
No interest at all in the UConn/UNC game on Saturday. I would have interest in UConn but not at 3. UNC won't have Hampton at RB, and UConn has been pretty good against bad competition on defense. I don't think this UNC offense is good enough to assume SOS will make a big difference, but I'd still want more than 3
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No play for me either as I am curious how things play out in this one given the various portal guys out on D. Apparently the bowl practices and this game will be an audition of sorts for many, as April portal discussions will be coming after this one, so may see some unexpected effort from guys fighting for a spot with the new regime, but who knows. Best of luck rest of the way man!
 
Br@ssknux said:
Birmingham Bowl Georgia Tech -2.5(-120) v Vanderbilt: Not recommending a side for this one officially, although I lean to Tech under a FG.I really hate to go against either of these teams because I've been betting on both all year long, and I certainly don't have much desire to fade whoever the dog might be, in this case Vandy. However, I do think Georgia Tech is the better team. Outside of WR Eric Singleton for Georgia Tech, there aren't a ton of high impact guys not playing, but Tech also will be without their best pass rusher Romello Hight and their starting left tackle. Vandy is also down a couple starters, but it looks like Tech might be hit a little harder. Both Diego Pavia and Haynes King appear to be at full strength, which is great because both teams are totally different teams without them. Kudos to Vandy for figuring out ways to win all year despite being outgained most of the time, but the wheels kind of came off for them at the end of the year. Tennessee came in and really took it to their defense after LSU outgained them by almost 200 yards and South Carolina did the same the week before that. Vandy was a great play as a significant dog, and when I say that I mean a TD or more, but they aren't getting that here. Defensively, they ended up 132nd on 3rd down and that does not bode well against a methodical offense like Georgia Tech that can run it. Vandy has had a nice coaching edge in most of their games this year, but I don't think they'll have that against Key and Buster Faulkner here. I think Tech probably wins his game, but I don't believe in it enough to list it as an official play or anything like that because I just don't have the heart to go against either one of these teams. We should also remember that Vandy has gone toe to toe with some very good teams, and the results are always better than the box score. Same goes for Tech for that matter. It's a shame they're playing each other.
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Some shitty weather in the forecast here.
 
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No Tajh Brooks for Texas Tech was a big loss, and I thought he was going to play. Tech missed him big time in the second half. Giving up 559 yards to an offense featuring several guys who had not seen the field before didn't help either.
 
Br@ssknux said:
No Tajh Brooks for Texas Tech was a big loss, and I thought he was going to play. Tech missed him big time in the second half. Giving up 559 yards to an offense featuring several guys who had not seen the field before didn't help either.
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The punt returner failing to catch the ball at the 12 and letting it roll to the 2...then to proceed to actually fair catch the ball at the 2 certainly didn't help out a QB making his first career start either. No clue what was going through his head.
 
Arizona Bowl: Miami(OH) is a 2.5/3 point favorite over Colorado State. No official play for me. Miami is 5-0 ATS in bowls under Chuck Martin but they've been sizable dogs and lost outright in all but one of them, so I don't view them as an auto play in this one as a favorite. They've had a good year, especially defensively, but when they've stepped up in competition they've been vulnerable. Also, they will be missing their top 2 receivers, Reggie Virgil and Javon Tracy who have both moved up to Power 4 schools in the transfer portal. I view the Mountain West as a better league than the MAC, and Colorado State was 1 win away from the MWC title game despite losing by far their best player, WR Tory Horton early in the year. The Rams have done it mostly by pounding people in the run game. This looks like a tossup to me, but the perfect ATS record by Martin has me staying away despite having a bit of a lean to the Rams plus the points.
 
14. Alamo Bowl: Colorado -3 v BYU (BOL): Conference foes in a bowl game here, but they didn't play each other during the season, so this could be a fun one. The reason they are matching up is because the bowls are still beholden to the Pac 12 in their contracts, so Colorado filled the spot against a Big 12 team. This one got to 3, so I'm a bit more comfortable with it. I originally looked at this line and figured I'd probably be looking for a way to back the dog here, and I was, but I'm ending up on the other side. BYU had a great season, ending up at 10-2, losing 2 of their last three. Almost every game they played was close, and they were opportunistic on defense, finishing +9 in turnovers. Colorado also had a great year too, but the main reason they won 9 games was the remarkable improvement they made on defense. The offense with sanders and those receivers was great oo, but their defense ended up 18th in yards per play, 34th against the run, 22nd in yards per pass attempt against and 9th in sack rate. Defensively, BYU was solid across the board, but they cannot rush the passer, and if you can't put pressure on Shadeur Sanders, you are asking for trouble. Also, BYU was able to escape trouble during the year, but they were very poor on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. I think that's going to catch up with them in this one. Neither team at this point appears to have personnel trouble, as Coach Prime is turning the screws on his son and Hunter to play for one last go around, and they look like they'll oblige. All bets are off if one or both sits out, but I think that is very unlikely to happen. BYU QB Jake Retzlaff led a very charmed life this year, as he had many more turnover worthy plays than actually materialized. On the flip side, Sanders was remarkably efficient in avoiding turnovers. BYU's defense was good against the pass this year, but they haven't faced a pass offense like this one, and when they faced above average pass attacks, they got burned a bit. Baylor threw for 300+( and that was before they had settled on Sawyer Robinson) and both Arizona State and Kansas apprached 10 yards per attempt. Sanders is the best QB they've faced by a lot, and they aren't likely to benefit from turnovers because Sanders plays almost mistake free. Lastly, Darius Lassiter, who along with Chase Roberts is responsible for almost all of BYU's explosiveness, is suspended for the first half, so the Cougs will be without him. I see Colorado as having some pretty solid edges in most areas, so I think they'll be able to get solid win here.
 
carolinablue said:
No play for me either as I am curious how things play out in this one given the various portal guys out on D. Apparently the bowl practices and this game will be an audition of sorts for many, as April portal discussions will be coming after this one, so may see some unexpected effort from guys fighting for a spot with the new regime, but who knows. Best of luck rest of the way man!
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Thanks CB, always appreciate your insight. I couldn't get a handle on this one.
 
Holy shit does Maiava suck. Did I say I thought he looked good against ND? This is one of the most pathetic performances from a QB I can remember.
 
Slightly out of chronological order with this one.

15. Military Bowl: East Carolina +7 v NC State: (BOL): This is a game between two schools separated by only about 80 miles. ECU always relishes a chance to beat the bigger schools from the area, and they've had a good amount of success knocking them off. Both teams have some portal defections, but I wouldn't say that either got hit harder than the other. ECU will be missing a couple of defensive starters plus receivers Chase Sowell and Winston Wright but they still have a couple other guys who had quite a few targets. NC State will be without Kevin Concepcion who has had a great career with them but appears headed to Miami. They'll also be missing DC Tony Gibson, considered one of the better play callers in the country as he's off to be the head coach at Marshall. ECU's DC was made the permanent head coach, so although I don't know if that's a good thing for the Pirates' long term future, it's good for their psyche in this game. NC State looks committed to this game, but they have very few impressive wins this year, and I think ECU will be able to throw on them even without those 2 receivers. NC State doesn't really do anything well, and I have these two very evenly matched in many categories I pay attention to. With that being the case, I see value in a full TD, especially when the dog is engaged and motivated to take it to the favorite. ECU is very proud program and they aren't intimidated by anyone and they are competent enough in the pass game to move it on this Wolfpack defense, especially without Gibson. I like the points in this one.
 
16. Music City Bowl: Iowa +3 v Missouri: I like Iowa in this one. Both teams are going to be without their most dynamic players on offense, and Iowa will be especially hurt by not having Kaleb Johnson, but Missouri's pass game is severely hampered by not having Luther Burden as well. Iowa has a couple other backs in Kamari Moulton and Jazuin Patterson who have been explosive this year and in previous years, so I think the Iowa rushing attack will still have the upper hand against a Missouri defense that was middling all year(65th in yards per rush attempt). Iowa QB Brendan Sullivan will be back from Injury, so they have some ability to throw it, which they didn't have at the end of the year with the third stringer in there. Defensively, Iowa wasn't a vintage Iowa squad, but they have playmakers all over the field, including Sebastian Castro and Jay Higgins, and they'll be motivated because they were embarrassed last year by a pathetic performance against Tennessee. I exect much better from them. Missouri won 9 games, but they played a very weak schedule by SEC standards and they were not anywhere close to the passing offense that they were a year ago. QB Brady Cook only threw 9 TDs all year, and he won't have it much easier against this Iowa defense. Iowa will also have the edge on special teams as usual. I handicap this one as Iowa having a slight edge, so I'll certainly take the points.
 
17. Reliaquest Bowl: Alabama -12.5 v Michigan: Not much to this one. Whatever the line is, I'd probably be ok with laying it. BAR, correct me if I'm wrong about this one. Michigan was not a great team this year, but whatever they had going for them won't be there in this one. The only reason they were competitive in games, and the entire reason they beat Ohio State was because of their defensive line, which was one of the best in college football. All of those guys are gone. They're all opting out. Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham, Josiah Stewart, they are all out. Offensively, all they could do was run the ball a little bit, and that was mostly due to their running backs, Kalel Mullings and to some extent Donovan Edwards, but both of them are out as well. I seriously have no idea how they are going to move the ball against anyone, let alone an Alabama defense that probably wants to stick it to them. I'd be optimistic for Alabama even if they had a bunch of opt outs, but it looks like most of their guys are going to play, which isn't all that out of the ordinary for them. They've had situations like this in the past, and they mostly showed up, even when they had two of the top 3 picks in the draft a couple years ago and then proceeded to blow out a very good K State squad. Michigan has already overachieved by winning the Ohio State game. Regardless of what happens here, they will have smiles on their faces. As a result of that, with zero motivation against a team that would like to gain some revenge(both from a team aspect and the head coach...both were victims of the Maize and Blue last year), this one could get ugly. This might have some resemblance to Purdue/LSU of a couple years ago, or God forbid, last year's Georgia/Florida State debacle.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Holy shit does Maiava suck. Did I say I thought he looked good against ND? This is one of the most pathetic performances from a QB I can remember.
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Credit to the kid. He had 68 yards well into the third quarter and ended up with 295! Pretty good job by USC to overcome what he did for the better part of the game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
17. Reliaquest Bowl: Alabama -12.5 v Michigan: Not much to this one. Whatever the line is, I'd probably be ok with laying it. BAR, correct me if I'm wrong about this one. Michigan was not a great team this year, but whatever they had going for them won't be there in this one. The only reason they were competitive in games, and the entire reason they beat Ohio State was because of their defensive line, which was one of the best in college football. All of those guys are gone. They're all opting out. Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham, Josiah Stewart, they are all out. Offensively, all they could do was run the ball a little bit, and that was mostly due to their running backs, Kalel Mullings and to some extent Donovan Edwards, but both of them are out as well. I seriously have no idea how they are going to move the ball against anyone, let alone an Alabama defense that probably wants to stick it to them. I'd be optimistic for Alabama even if they had a bunch of opt outs, but it looks like most of their guys are going to play, which isn't all that out of the ordinary for them. They've had situations like this in the past, and they mostly showed up, even when they had two of the top 3 picks in the draft a couple years ago and then proceeded to blow out a very good K State squad. Michigan has already overachieved by winning the Ohio State game. Regardless of what happens here, they will have smiles on their faces. As a result of that, with zero motivation against a team that would like to gain some revenge(both from a team aspect and the head coach...both were victims of the Maize and Blue last year), this one could get ugly. This might have some resemblance to Purdue/LSU of a couple years ago, or God forbid, last year's Georgia/Florida State debacle.
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You said it man.

There is some nice young talent ready to rock at the front 4 spots BUT they won't come close to what was there.

All 4 first round picks are out.

Edwards out.

MULLINGS out.

The portal guys.

This is just a tough situation for any team.

How will they score?

Jordan Marshall will get a chance to shine but there isn't much else that excites me here.

Bama should win something like 31-10.
 
I'm a bit shocked this is back to 12.5

I saw a 13.5 a few days ago.

I have Bama tied into 3 ML parlays from last week (Cuse was part of those as well).

I'm probably going to add more here...

Bama - the points

Mich TT under

Definitely worth looks.
 
B.A.R. said:
You said it man.

There is some nice young talent ready to rock at the front 4 spots BUT they won't come close to what was there.

All 4 first round picks are out.

Edwards out.

MULLINGS out.

The portal guys.

This is just a tough situation for any team.

How will they score?

Jordan Marshall will get a chance to shine but there isn't much else that excites me here.

Bama should win something like 31-10.
Click to expand...
Opt outs have always bothered me. I guess I'm old school. But another way to look at it is to view bowls as the beginning of the following year rather than the final game of the current year. You get to see some guys play that haven't. Like you mention with the front 4 at Michigan. Anyone behind those guys on the depth chart wasn't going to play much because those 4 have to be on the field as much as possible. It doesn't mean their young guys can't play, especially at a place like Michigan.
 
Forgot to mention the Independence Bowl between Army and LaTech. I was glad to see Marshall exit stage left. If you don't want to be there, get the fuck out and let someone who cares play. I don't care if they're 5-7 or not, I'd rather see a team that wants to be there. I was actually rooting for La Tech to make a bowl because their defense in the second half of the season was absolutely stifling. Obviously the caliber of opponents wasn't strong, but hey were interesting to watch. Unfortunately, their offense makes everyone they play look like their defense, so it doesn't translate into a good overall team. This line was hovering around 17 a week ago but has come down to 14, so I've lost interest. There's a chance La Tech plays good enough defense to hang with Army here, but their top guy DL David Blay transferred out and a couple other of their defensive starters aren't playing, so it's hard to assume they would look like they did during the season. Also, their best offensive player by a mile, WR Tru Edwards is in the portal and I'm assuming won't play. I don't want to ley that much with Army, but I'd need closer to 17 to feel comfortable taking these points.
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. Alamo Bowl: Colorado -3 v BYU (BOL): Conference foes in a bowl game here, but they didn't play each other during the season, so this could be a fun one. The reason they are matching up is because the bowls are still beholden to the Pac 12 in their contracts, so Colorado filled the spot against a Big 12 team. This one got to 3, so I'm a bit more comfortable with it. I originally looked at this line and figured I'd probably be looking for a way to back the dog here, and I was, but I'm ending up on the other side. BYU had a great season, ending up at 10-2, losing 2 of their last three. Almost every game they played was close, and they were opportunistic on defense, finishing +9 in turnovers. Colorado also had a great year too, but the main reason they won 9 games was the remarkable improvement they made on defense. The offense with sanders and those receivers was great oo, but their defense ended up 18th in yards per play, 34th against the run, 22nd in yards per pass attempt against and 9th in sack rate. Defensively, BYU was solid across the board, but they cannot rush the passer, and if you can't put pressure on Shadeur Sanders, you are asking for trouble. Also, BYU was able to escape trouble during the year, but they were very poor on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. I think that's going to catch up with them in this one. Neither team at this point appears to have personnel trouble, as Coach Prime is turning the screws on his son and Hunter to play for one last go around, and they look like they'll oblige. All bets are off if one or both sits out, but I think that is very unlikely to happen. BYU QB Jake Retzlaff led a very charmed life this year, as he had many more turnover worthy plays than actually materialized. On the flip side, Sanders was remarkably efficient in avoiding turnovers. BYU's defense was good against the pass this year, but they haven't faced a pass offense like this one, and when they faced above average pass attacks, they got burned a bit. Baylor threw for 300+( and that was before they had settled on Sawyer Robinson) and both Arizona State and Kansas apprached 10 yards per attempt. Sanders is the best QB they've faced by a lot, and they aren't likely to benefit from turnovers because Sanders plays almost mistake free. Lastly, Darius Lassiter, who along with Chase Roberts is responsible for almost all of BYU's explosiveness, is suspended for the first half, so the Cougs will be without him. I see Colorado as having some pretty solid edges in most areas, so I think they'll be able to get solid win here.
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Deion has said his studs will play, but it was left pretty vague if I recall? My concern is how long they play.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I view the Mountain West as a better league than the MAC
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Same. Until looking at bowl results I was confident. MAC faves have mashed. And MAC teams overall have showed up to play last seven seasons vs MW. The over has cashed quite a bit in those games as well. Not what I expected to find.
 
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