Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
8. Thursday: Game Above Sports Bowl(Detroit): Toledo +7 v Pitt: I found this one at -110 at bet Rivers, but it looks like there's a little extra juice required to get 7 at some other books. This is a case of two teams who have both underachieved in bowls, but in this specific role, I'm comfortable with Toledo. Jason Candle has not been good in bowls ATS. He's 1-5, but the one win ATS is the only bowl he's been an underdog in, and that was last year when Toledo lost by 1 getting 3 in Craig Bohl's swan song with Wyoming, which I thought was a pretty good effort by the Rockets. Pitt's Narduzzi is also bad in bowls, but that's especially true when favored as the Panthers are 0-2 in that role. Candle also has been comfortable as a dog in recent years, having gone 6-1 ATS in the rare times he's been dogged since 2021. Pitt started out hot, going 7-0, but that turned out to be a lot of smoke and mirrors, as he wheels feel off, especially offensively soon after that. Pitt under QB Eli Holstein and with the contributions of do everything RB Desmond Reid were very productive on offense in those first 7 games, ranking highly in most offensive categories. Both Holstein and Redi got hurt later however, and Reid, being only 5'8" 170 wore down and missed the finale vs BC. Holstein is questionable for this game and Reid is apparently going to play, but I don't think that's a slam dunk for either, especially Holstein, who Pitt is counting on next year. If he doesn't go, their backup Nate Yarnell, who has quite a bit of experience and wasn't bad in relief of Holstein this year is in the transfer portal, so they'll be in rough shape if he doesn't play. Also, Toledo hasn't really been stung by any meaningful opt outs or transfers, and their defense was pretty stout this year, ranking 24th in overall yards per play and 21st against the run. Pitt will have to beat them through the air I believe and their top receiver Kanata Mumpfield is opting out of the game. Defensively, Pitt was very stout against the run, but Toledo couldn't run it at all this year, so they probably won't even try. They do have some juice in the pass game with Tucker Gleeson(22/7 ratio) and pass catchers Jerjuan Newton(almost 1000 yards, 1st team all MAC) and Anthony Torres(also first team all MAC with 8 TDs). Throw in Junior Vanderross who caught 70 passes, and they have some weapons to throw at Pitt. With uncertainty with their injuries and a pretty clear motivational edge for Toledo(why would Pitt be jacked for this game?) I think there's value in these points. The last time Pitt was in Detroit they barely escaped Eastern Michigan 34-30 as a 13 point favorite. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Toledo win this one.
