STEPONADUCK 2025 Regular Season Wins/ Futures Discussion

[steponaduck]

There are several major books out there with conference futures menus up for all P4 and G5 conferences, so now is the time to get out ahead of it and fire into teams that might be undervalued coming into 2026. While there is still an opportunity for roster shuffling and portal entries, this is a time to assess these numbers and bet into them as we get closer to the season. I have 3-4 that I am eyeballing.

working on offseason roster updates, strength of schedule, coaching carousel and other items while assessing the conference futures and regular season wins.
plan to have some discussion here along with the blue bird app and the one with the green check mark where my Action will be recorded appropriately.
I have a conference future on Utah to win the B12 at +1800, would also go back for more at +1400.
assessing some of the P5 RSW now but likely will wait until after portal period 2 before firing away at those.

 

[B.A.R.]

Love to see the thread.

I'm excited to see QB1 at Utah.

Excellent value!

 

[Two Utes]

I'm not sure what to make of Utah this year. I expect them to score more than they did last year and Dampier will make them a different animal in the red zone.

I don't say this about a Whittingham team very often but I'm a little worried about their defense. Very thin and very young at DT. The secondary lost a good player to the portal as well. If they can find a few good pieces in the spring portal I'll be more bullish about their defense.

I still think they are worth a look though. Good luck!

 

[Two Utes]

They picked up Auburn CB, JC Hart in the portal today. Hopefully they find a suitable DT after the spring dominos start to fall.

 

[Wolfeman]

Always look forward to this thread
JJ woods

 

[steponaduck]

2nd NCAA FOOTBALL Futures play ***Fresno State +900 to win MWC*** 0.37u to win 3.33 units

I think the Bulldogs made a home run hire in snatching new head coach Matt Entz away from USC where he was an associate defensive head coach and worked with the linebackers. Entz previously coached at NDSU...Where he compiled a 60-11 overall record over 5 season. He was also previously the DC for the Bison for 5 seasons. His coordinator hires were home runs in Josh Davis (Un. Of South Dakota) and Nick Benedetto, who has quickly risen through the coaching ranks from the University of Sioux Falls all the way up to being the DC at Northern Illinois the last three seasons.



Fresno State has four RS sr. along the offensive line along with a 4th year Jr, brings back Elijah Gillium and Bryson Donelson at RB, and sees EJ Warner transfer in from Rice by way of Temple university prior. I also like the transfers added along the defensive line for Fresno State.



Entz is going to run the football, and if the offensive line is able to connect early, the unit will have opportunities to find success in conference play. Quite a few poor run defenses are on the schedule in league play.



As far as the schedule goes, lets peek at the conference slate.

@ Hawaii- always a fun trip (should be focused here with FCS Southern prior and a bye week following)

Nevada- decimated in the portal and already a weaker run defense, I doubt we see the solid secondary play we saw last season.

@ Colorado State- surprisingly super soft in the trenches under Norvell, I will have to see the improvement on the field before I buy in

SDSU- dissected weekly with a porous run defense, Sean Lewis likely to turn things around but will come by way of the offense, not defense, first.

@Boise State- Upper echelon team in the league, but this defense left some things to be desired and they will certainly have to re-tool after losing key pieces from LY Team.

Wyoming- Usually fairly solid along the defensive front seven, but had their struggles last year

Utah State- bronco should turn things around here quickly, but defense was putrid here, as was his UNM teams, hard to imagine a hard nosed front 7 in year 1

@ San Jose State- tough team, could be a spot in the MWC championship game on the line here. The defense took a step back last year and the spartan offense will have quite the task on their hands to reload offensively. Navy Ken did a great job in year 1, but still not sure this team will be any good.

lotta upside with Fresno State this year in my opinion. I think the schedule sets up well with winnable games on the road and the Bulldogs avoid UNLV and AF (no time wasted prepping for triple option; can usually affect you the following week as well)

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/4/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u


tracking the utah play at the worse of the numbers, but played at +1800 as well.

 

[Two Utes]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/4/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u


tracking the utah play at the worse of the numbers, but played at +1800 as well.

Utes have continued to pick up some pieces including a young but huge DT from LSU. Cal transfer WR Merriweather committed today.

 

[steponaduck]

I’m thrilled and excited to be on a podcast this afternoon with THE ODDSBREAKERS, tune in at 4 PM Eastern as my good friend Kiev and I take a high-level look at some rule changes to the 2025 college football season, along with an early look at the conference futures betting menu.

 

[B.A.R.]

I’m thrilled and excited to be on a podcast this afternoon with THE ODDSBREAKERS, tune in at 4 PM Eastern as my good friend Kiev and I take a high-level look at some rule changes to the 2025 college football season, along with an early look at the conference futures betting menu.

Love to listen to this but link is broken.

I advise others to listen to Ducks analysis. He's excellent on all the pods I've listened to last year.

 

[steponaduck]

 

[steponaduck]

Love to listen to this but link is broken.

I advise others to listen to Ducks analysis. He's excellent on all the pods I've listened to last year.

Thank you brother. Very very kind words.

Updated the link for you. Apologies for the wrong one loaded before.

 

[steponaduck]

Also available on Spotify

 

[B.A.R.]

Also available on Spotify

Perfect.

 

[steponaduck]

 

[steponaduck]

Threw together some thoughts on the University of New Mexico for the 2025 college football season. Will have a sheet of this nature for every FBS team.

 

[steponaduck]

Nevada...

 

[steponaduck]

 

[steponaduck]

San Diego State thoughts

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

Can NOT put into words how much I appreciate your time ...You've been a must read since your first posts across the street ...

MUCH RESPECT LONG TIME BROTHER

MAY this be YOUR MOST PROFITABLE/FUN season to date

 

[steponaduck]

Can NOT put into words how much I appreciate your time ...You've been a must read since your first posts across the street ...

MUCH RESPECT LONG TIME BROTHER

MAY this be YOUR MOST PROFITABLE/FUN season to date

Thank you my much respected brother.

May you sweep your slate!!

 

[steponaduck]

Was thrilled to be a guest with Kyle Hunter on his YouTube channel last night.

 

[steponaduck]

I placed my first weekly wager of the 2025 college football season. Utah -1.5 -115 vs UCLA. Week 1.

 

[steponaduck]

wyoming

 

[B.A.R.]

Was thrilled to be a guest with Kyle Hunter on his YouTube channel last night.

Enjoy the content between you two going back to a few different spaces last season.

This definitely wets the appetite!

 

[steponaduck]

Enjoy the content between you two going back to a few different spaces last season.

This definitely wets the appetite!

Thank you brother.

I’ll have a pod coming out with Action Network this week and I am filming with Ron Marmalefsky as well on Wednesday Will post links for you!

 

[steponaduck]

I am betting Middle Tennessee State to win Conference USA at +2500 at Draft Kings. The fair market price at other books is anywhere between 16/1 and 18/1. I actually placed this wager at +3000 today, and the odds have been adjusted accordingly so Ill track and recommend at +2500.

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/18/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u

 

[B.A.R.]

I am betting Middle Tennessee State to win Conference USA at +2500 at Draft Kings. The fair market price at other books is anywhere between 16/1 and 18/1. I actually placed this wager at +3000 today, and the odds have been adjusted accordingly so Ill track and recommend at +2500.

Thanks for including recommendations. That's so key for any cappers to post (whether forums, Twitter or other SM).

I actually found your mtsu at 2400 on a PPH. Not bad.

 

[steponaduck]

I put in a position today on Nevada UNDER 4.5 regular season wins -155. I bet this at -150 but for tracking and record keeping purposes will use the current available line after my wager has settled. I am not overly fond of what UNR has returning on both sides of the ball. I have major concerns in the secondary, which was a strength for Nevada last year. Very surprising pass defense performances that are unlikely to be replicated. Quarterback is a concern as is Chubba Purdy/AJ Bianco are attempting to replace Brendon Lewis who xfer to memphis.FCS talent inserted in the LT and LG positions are concerning, along with losing most of the meager production generated with the defensive front seven. Very Very little pass rush and havoc generated will lead to plenty of explosives given up in the pass game, I would expect The nevada defense to regress and without having continuity in the skill room, and a subpar quarterback situation, hard for me to get behind this team. I was assuming a RSW of 3.5, 4.0 tops. instead we get a break with 4.5 being released.

I am not sure if they are baking in an FCS win, but they are hosting SAC state, who is loading up their roster with FBS talent and will surely show up in this spot to grab an FBS win for their ascending program. oh yeah, they have to double back for that one after happy valley, C-USA foes MTSU and WKU also do not provide assured wins on the slate, and facing Fresno, Nevada, Boise, and San Jose St (top 4 projected) make this slate even more daunting. I could see this team very likely at 2-7 after a road loss at utah state, and just dont see what they are drawing from when they square off against San Jose St, Wyoming and UNLV late in the year. Projected spreads have UNR a double digit dog in 7, likely favored in 2-3 games. how is this group winning 5 this season. I just dont see it with the slate and what they have to work with

 

[steponaduck]

 

[steponaduck]

BOWLING GREEN REGULAR SEASON WINSUnder 6.5 -115 at DK2nd official RSW play on the card.

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115

 

[steponaduck]

Bowling green certainly made a splash hire in Eddie George from the FCS ranks, and this bunch will certainly have their work cut out for them in the early portion of their schedule. Non-con includes Cincy, Lib and Louisville and they open MAC play with Ohio and Toledo. Woah! A 1-5 start is not unrealistic and with a new coach coaching at a new level, he might feel a bit of pressure in the back half of the slate. Could potentially see them rally the troops and scratch across 6-6 but games against CMU, EMU and Buff will be no picnic. I have major concerns with a defense that loses half of their DL, every starter at linebacker and half of the contributors in the secondary. overall returning defensive production is just 30% (bottom 10 FBS) and this team is going to have to find some continuity on defense. really hard to see things coming together in year one here given the talent losses and super rough opening start. How are they going to replace Harold Fannin? just not seeing what they brought in being able to lock in like HF did all season for BG. QB is okay, no wow-factor. Skill guys average.


I wont bore you with the monotony of the position by position. This team struggled badly on 3rd down last year and really struggled in the RZ. could not run the ball for 1st downs when needed, and were just soft late in the MAC season. I think we are getting an extra win based on the two exceptional performances we saw from BG in hostile roadies at Penn State and TAMU, and some excitement around the coaching hire. Based on the talent i see here and the difficulty of the schedule it will be a miracle if this bunch stays engaged the entire season. under

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115

 

[B.A.R.]

Fannin had nearly 1/3 of their total yards.

I think you're right they are receiving a small bump on "reputation" from last year (really last few years) playing the bigger programs well. They gave the '23 national champs an earlier scare in September 2023.

A bad start can certainly snowball and that's the nice thing with an RSW under -- a tough start.

Good luck.

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115

 

[steponaduck]

 

[steponaduck]

It was a privilage to have a disucssion with Ron on his podcast, and we discussed the changing landscape of the sport, offseason prep, and regular season wins.

tune in~!

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)

 

[DOUBLEUP4LIFE]

BOWLING GREEN REGULAR SEASON WINSUnder 6.5 -115 at DK2nd official RSW play on the card.

Great play Imo ...I was heavy on them going into last season , but the turnover is way too high , don't trust George as a HC ...
4-5 wins might be their ceiling ...

 

[steponaduck]

 

[steponaduck]

Took out a position on FAU under 4.5 RSW +110 on FD. had to secure the other half of the position at DK at -105, so lets call it +103 aggregate.

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/23/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)

 

[spottie2935]

I like Liberty under 9.5 wins.

8-4 last season

Thing about Liberty is their massive previous lines but in those games when the line is at least <=-14 they are 1-15 ATS.
the last few seasons they had hot starts. Their before week 10 record is 33-4 since and after 2019.

Its Still a decent team but adding in Coastal Transfer QB Vasko will be good but Losing top WR's the last 2 years and the loss of big time play maker QB Salter will bring them back down to earth. The other CUSA teams last year elevated past Liberty and i see this to be very possible this year.

In recent season as a growing team they really dominated their games when dogs. Those days are long gone now.

In their opening CUSA season 2023 they were 12-1 last year 8-4 and now I see about the same. CUSA is what it is and that allowed Liberty to make a big splash but now is see more of a balance from them.

21-3 SU since 2023 and I dont see this as sustainable after the Loss of their elite play makers.

 

[steponaduck]

 

[steponaduck]

.

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/28/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u
Middle Tennessee State to win CUSA +2500 .231u to win 6.00u
Virginia to win ACC 200/1 .05u to win 10u
Tulsa to win AAC 300/1 .05u to win 15u
Lotto: JMU +400 + Buffalo +800 + Boise St -125 80/1. .33u to win 26 u


Regular Season Wins Card:
Nevada under 4.5 -155 (DK)
Bowling Green under 6.5 -115 (DK)
South Alabama under 7.5 -145 (CZR)
Florida Atlantic under 4.5 +103 (FD + CZR 50/50)
Hawaii under 6.5 -140 (DK)

NCAA Weekly Wagers:
Week 1:
Utah -1.5 -115 (b365)
ECU +14 (CZR)