STEPONADUCK 2025 Regular Season Wins/ Futures Discussion

[steponaduck]

There are several major books out there with conference futures menus up for all P4 and G5 conferences, so now is the time to get out ahead of it and fire into teams that might be undervalued coming into 2026. While there is still an opportunity for roster shuffling and portal entries, this is a time to assess these numbers and bet into them as we get closer to the season. I have 3-4 that I am eyeballing.

working on offseason roster updates, strength of schedule, coaching carousel and other items while assessing the conference futures and regular season wins.
plan to have some discussion here along with the blue bird app and the one with the green check mark where my Action will be recorded appropriately.
I have a conference future on Utah to win the B12 at +1800, would also go back for more at +1400.
assessing some of the P5 RSW now but likely will wait until after portal period 2 before firing away at those.

 

[B.A.R.]

Love to see the thread.

I'm excited to see QB1 at Utah.

Excellent value!

 

[Two Utes]

I'm not sure what to make of Utah this year. I expect them to score more than they did last year and Dampier will make them a different animal in the red zone.

I don't say this about a Whittingham team very often but I'm a little worried about their defense. Very thin and very young at DT. The secondary lost a good player to the portal as well. If they can find a few good pieces in the spring portal I'll be more bullish about their defense.

I still think they are worth a look though. Good luck!

 

[Two Utes]

They picked up Auburn CB, JC Hart in the portal today. Hopefully they find a suitable DT after the spring dominos start to fall.

 

[Wolfeman]

Always look forward to this thread
JJ woods

 

[steponaduck]

2nd NCAA FOOTBALL Futures play ***Fresno State +900 to win MWC*** 0.37u to win 3.33 units

I think the Bulldogs made a home run hire in snatching new head coach Matt Entz away from USC where he was an associate defensive head coach and worked with the linebackers. Entz previously coached at NDSU...Where he compiled a 60-11 overall record over 5 season. He was also previously the DC for the Bison for 5 seasons. His coordinator hires were home runs in Josh Davis (Un. Of South Dakota) and Nick Benedetto, who has quickly risen through the coaching ranks from the University of Sioux Falls all the way up to being the DC at Northern Illinois the last three seasons.



Fresno State has four RS sr. along the offensive line along with a 4th year Jr, brings back Elijah Gillium and Bryson Donelson at RB, and sees EJ Warner transfer in from Rice by way of Temple university prior. I also like the transfers added along the defensive line for Fresno State.



Entz is going to run the football, and if the offensive line is able to connect early, the unit will have opportunities to find success in conference play. Quite a few poor run defenses are on the schedule in league play.



As far as the schedule goes, lets peek at the conference slate.

@ Hawaii- always a fun trip (should be focused here with FCS Southern prior and a bye week following)

Nevada- decimated in the portal and already a weaker run defense, I doubt we see the solid secondary play we saw last season.

@ Colorado State- surprisingly super soft in the trenches under Norvell, I will have to see the improvement on the field before I buy in

SDSU- dissected weekly with a porous run defense, Sean Lewis likely to turn things around but will come by way of the offense, not defense, first.

@Boise State- Upper echelon team in the league, but this defense left some things to be desired and they will certainly have to re-tool after losing key pieces from LY Team.

Wyoming- Usually fairly solid along the defensive front seven, but had their struggles last year

Utah State- bronco should turn things around here quickly, but defense was putrid here, as was his UNM teams, hard to imagine a hard nosed front 7 in year 1

@ San Jose State- tough team, could be a spot in the MWC championship game on the line here. The defense took a step back last year and the spartan offense will have quite the task on their hands to reload offensively. Navy Ken did a great job in year 1, but still not sure this team will be any good.

lotta upside with Fresno State this year in my opinion. I think the schedule sets up well with winnable games on the road and the Bulldogs avoid UNLV and AF (no time wasted prepping for triple option; can usually affect you the following week as well)

 

[steponaduck]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/4/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u


tracking the utah play at the worse of the numbers, but played at +1800 as well.

 

[Two Utes]

2025 NCAA FB Futures Portfolio Updated 5/4/25
Utah to win the B12 +1400 0.5 to win 7.0u
Fresno State to win the MWC +900 .37 to win 3.33u


tracking the utah play at the worse of the numbers, but played at +1800 as well.

Utes have continued to pick up some pieces including a young but huge DT from LSU. Cal transfer WR Merriweather committed today.

 

[steponaduck]

I’m thrilled and excited to be on a podcast this afternoon with THE ODDSBREAKERS, tune in at 4 PM Eastern as my good friend Kiev and I take a high-level look at some rule changes to the 2025 college football season, along with an early look at the conference futures betting menu.