2008 cfb -- time to post my bowl card so far--updated card post 277

tunasunday said:
We appreciate the humbleness, but you have capped the So. Miss and Wake Forest games superbly only to have to win nail-biters.

The way you have prepared for the bowl season the odds are better for you to nail a game that is academic by the end of the 3rd quarter than to totally whiff.

Great job so far this bowl season, the hard work is paying off....and you are just getting started adding to your bankroll my friend.
Click to expand...


I feel great about both of those games .. they wre nailbiters because of being on the wrong end of defensive td's in both games. last eyar ihad nevada against new mexico ... so i can miss by quite a bit in bowl games at times.
 
CrimsonK said:
Great Job Kyle, excellent break down paid off nicely for you in the end. USM was the right side and it's nice to see the right side cash the ticket which is not always the case.. Next up, TCU...
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TCU is my favorite of the bowl season. lets cash. nice writeup on tht one btw
 
all caught up i think. sorry if i missed anyone. i try to respond to all i can.

just a warning .. i will be making a bunch of bowl plays tomorrow.
 
no henson is making me real fuckin nervous about having 10 units on this one kyle. hopefully it's not as big as i'm making it out to be, but that's part of big risks we take when getting a good number early on that i don't like. sure, i got some -1.5 and -2.5, but damn, i likely wouldn't have 10 units riding had i known that henson was out before placing the wager.

hope it won't matter...let's go tcu
 
yo fellas relax..it the day of the game..people see that a lot of cappers are on TCU, then overanalyze and make a boise bet becasue they are undefeated, and WANT to be contrarian..you will see several boise bets in the hours before game....seen this happen all the time. TCU is the better team.
 
HUNTDOG said:
yo fellas relax..it the day of the game..people see that a lot of cappers are on TCU, then overanalyze and make a boise bet becasue they are undefeated, and WANT to be contrarian..you will see several boise bets in the hours before game....seen this happen all the time. TCU is the better team.
Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
broadwayjoe said:
no henson is making me real fuckin nervous about having 10 units on this one kyle. hopefully it's not as big as i'm making it out to be, but that's part of big risks we take when getting a good number early on that i don't like. sure, i got some -1.5 and -2.5, but damn, i likely wouldn't have 10 units riding had i known that henson was out before placing the wager.

hope it won't matter...let's go tcu
Click to expand...


you can always lay off two or three units at +3.5 while still having a decent chance to middle around the 3.

Henson injury makes me a little nervous but the backup Washington may be their best defensive player. Hurts the depth which is bothersome because of how they tired vs utah late and Henson was obviously a solid player.
 
HUNTDOG said:
yo fellas relax..it the day of the game..people see that a lot of cappers are on TCU, then overanalyze and make a boise bet becasue they are undefeated, and WANT to be contrarian..you will see several boise bets in the hours before game....seen this happen all the time. TCU is the better team.
Click to expand...


The voice of reason.
 
yeah washington is probably even a better player, but you're right---takes away from depth and imo leadership. i think they a good 10 points better than boise, and i don't think henson is worth more than a couple of points, but they will need to control the clock regardless which they've done an excellent job of doing this year -- now i think it's even more important for them to control the clock. and they need to score tds rather than sputter in the redzone and have to settle for fgs from that son of bitch vs boise's kickblocking.

i'm not buying back because i feel i'm on the right side and don't want to lose unecessary juice, but i am extended a little more than i would want to be now due to this info. how can he blow being bowl-eligible his SENIOR year---and how was patterson not on top of his academics? fuck, kyle! haha
 
broadwayjoe said:
yeah washington is probably even a better player, but you're right---takes away from depth and imo leadership. i think they a good 10 points better than boise, and i don't think henson is worth more than a couple of points, but they will need to control the clock regardless which they've done an excellent job of doing this year -- now i think it's even more important for them to control the clock. and they need to score tds rather than sputter in the redzone and have to settle for fgs from that son of bitch vs boise's kickblocking.

i'm not buying back because i feel i'm on the right side and don't want to lose unecessary juice, but i am extended a little more than i would want to be now due to this info. how can he blow being bowl-eligible his SENIOR year---and how was patterson not on top of his academics? fuck, kyle! haha
Click to expand...

If you go back over this program the last few years , you will find some curious incidents. They are very tight lipped about problems there which has kept it under the radar but they have actually had quite a few off the field issues. That they lose a player to a problem of some kind really shouldn't surprise us that much.
 
vegaskyle said:
If you go back over this program the last few years , you will find some curious incidents. They are very tight lipped about problems there which has kept it under the radar but they have actually had quite a few off the field issues. That they lose a player to a problem of some kind really shouldn't surprise us that much.
Click to expand...

Isn't that the truth. Frogs will be fine without Henson. The amazing part is how nobody has said a word about how improved TCU's offense is over the course of the season. Not only is this the best defense BSU will have played, by a mile, but this will also be one of the better offenses they will see all year as well. I'm having zero second thoughts about this one.
 
i hear ya kyle...not surprised , just pissed at the timing.

i dont think ive been surprised by anything since eugene robinson got honored for high moral character and then hours later was caught trying to get head from a prostitute on super bowl eve the night before the biggest day of his professional life. this guy just failed a couple of grad courses hahaha
 
thats good to hear jp...not real worried about talent dropoff..just worried about how much of a leader he was in that defensive huddle. thanks for the re-assurance fellas
 
Heading out the door for the day. There is plenty on the forum about this game , so i dont feel guilty about no wrietup.

good luck to us tonight. Boise is no easy out , for sure.
 
vegaskyle said:
you can always lay off two or three units at +3.5 while still having a decent chance to middle around the 3.

Henson injury makes me a little nervous but the backup Washington may be their best defensive player. Hurts the depth which is bothersome because of how they tired vs utah late and Henson was obviously a solid player.
Click to expand...

i completely agree.

...broadway if you're concerned why not save yourself a heart attack and get some at 3.5 which would give you a key number to middle across.

...i hate to be against all of you guys, but i'm going to be on Boise and i have my 3.5 so i'm just hoping for 4 now (which may be greedy)
 
Kyle

I own a TCU ticket at -1.5, whats your thoughts on buying the otherside at +3.5?

Thanks
 
No regrets with that bet. Thats the way the ball bounces in gambling sometimes. Here is the boxscore.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
68.gif
</TD><TD>
2628.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>3-11</TD><TD>9-18</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>1-3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>250</TD><TD>472</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>222</TD><TD>197</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>22-35</TD><TD>22-36</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>6.3</TD><TD>5.5</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>275</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>51</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>1.4</TD><TD>5.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>4-25</TD><TD>6-63</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>23:53</TD><TD>36:07</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
GWarner27 said:
i completely agree.

...broadway if you're concerned why not save yourself a heart attack and get some at 3.5 which would give you a key number to middle across.

...i hate to be against all of you guys, but i'm going to be on Boise and i have my 3.5 so i'm just hoping for 4 now (which may be greedy)
Click to expand...


nice win gwarner
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Kyle

I own a TCU ticket at -1.5, whats your thoughts on buying the otherside at +3.5?

Thanks
Click to expand...


sorry marlo , i was not at home to respond.

i had -2 and kept it .. not much difference so you know where i stood.

Rare game where i had a little extra on it. Figures.
 
pags11 said:
had to go to the gym after watching the TCU game tonight...onto the next one...
Click to expand...


Hehe .. locked in ,,, just not getting the results i want this year. When my team gets out gained by 222 yards i lose by 30.

Even more amazing is that boise missed a very makeable FG in that game.
 
I want to show two boxscores and then have a discussion if possible guys.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
68.gif
</TD><TD>
2628.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>3-11</TD><TD>9-18</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>1-3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>250</TD><TD>472</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>222</TD><TD>197</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>22-35</TD><TD>22-36</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>6.3</TD><TD>5.5</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>275</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>51</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>1.4</TD><TD>5.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>4-25</TD><TD>6-63</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>23:53</TD><TD>36:07</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

AND

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
36.gif
</TD><TD>
278.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>8-14</TD><TD>5-11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>619</TD><TD>434</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>257</TD><TD>186</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>17-30</TD><TD>13-23</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>8.6</TD><TD>8.1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>362</TD><TD>248</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>39</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>9.3</TD><TD>6.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>6-60</TD><TD>3-25</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>31:49</TD><TD>28:11</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




These two boxscores are really making me pause when considering that Nevada play.

The WAC is bad.

It makes me feel good about tonights game given that Hawaii is the fourth or fifth best team in that conference. I hae to think that Notre Dame is better than that at this point.

BUT .... cani really bet against Friedgen with a team from this conference ??

I mean TCU just DOMINATED the best the WAC has to offer. Don't look at the score ... they were over 3td better last night as far as play. Colorado State clearly outplayed fresno and had over 600 yards of offense. I don't know .. a little scared of the nevada play. wht do you guys think ?
 
HUNTDOG said:
Too angry to talk about it.
Click to expand...


I hear you. Amazing.

At some point do i have to start blaming patterson for this though ??

I mean this is almost a trend now.

AFA game last year
Utah game this year
boise game this year

completely dominated all three teams but lost two of the games and won the other by 1 point.

Of course i had tcu in all three.hehe. GAWD i suck.

When you outgain the other guy by 222 yards ... you should be winning by atleast three scores and usually it is even more than that.
 
Yeah, VK. The WAC is very bad. The difference last night was that ginger TCU QB. Fucker was awful early and wasn't all that great later on.

Looking forward:

Is ND on vacation? No. This is a must win.

Is Maryland going to not show up? Maybe. Don't know if I can back the turtles on this one.
 
RJ Esq said:
Yeah, VK. The WAC is very bad. The difference last night was that ginger TCU QB. Fucker was awful early and wasn't all that great later on.

Looking forward:

Is ND on vacation? No. This is a must win.

Is Maryland going to not show up? Maybe. Don't know if I can back the turtles on this one.
Click to expand...


no way in hell i can bet maryland either RJ.

The question is after watching fresno look like dog poop , watching TCU make boise look like an FCS also-ran and hopefully a notre dame win tonight ... can i back the WAC team Nevada in what looks good on paper outside of the conference angles.
 
The WAC is the MWC's bitch. Of course so is the Pac 10. No way could I bet Nevada after seeing the first two games by that pathetic league. I don't think ND is any good either, but they have to be the fired up team tonight. If they lose to the 4th place WAC team they might as well fold it up and call it a day.
 
lack of motivation and the Heyward-Bey injury would be my two biggest concerns with Maryland...
 
the wac is clearly awful, but i think it also says a lot about the strength of the mwc. even byu put up a good fight against a team that they didn't match up well against at all. i don't have a problem backing nevada because i have seen that they can be competitive out of conference and teams have to adjust to their style of offense. i really don't think maryland matches up to exploit their weaknesses that well...
 
pags11 said:
lack of motivation and the Heyward-Bey injury would be my two biggest concerns with Maryland...
Click to expand...


Yes .. wonder if the recent WAC results in the bowls will mean a movement in that line for more value on nevada.

What do you guys think ?
 
I will have no play on Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl. I have capped this game out however so if anyone has something they want an opinion on , please feel free to ask. Me and the MAC do not tend to mix well though , so my opinion may not be worth as much as it is with some other conferences.

In addition , I will not have a play on the meineke bowl featuring west virginia and north carolina. Again , I have capped it and can answer any questions as best i can for those of you interested in the game and my take on certain aspects of it. Same goes for the Emerald Bowl between California and Miami Florida -no play. A small lean to miami florida has disappeared after bad events for the hurricane side. I am going to stay away for sure.

The one game on the 27th that has my interest a little bit is Wisconsin +6 in the Champs Sports Bowl vs Florida State.

So that is how it is shaping up for me over the next three days .... either a play on wisconsin or no bets.
 
I was celebrating Christmas Eve , so i didnt get to see the game tonight. The Boxscore looks pretty convincing though , so i assume the final is reflective of that plus the kickoff return of course. Would like to hear from folks who watched it.

here is the box score....

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
62.gif
</TD><TD>
87.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>23</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>3-13</TD><TD>4-11</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>1-1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>358</TD><TD>478</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>326</TD><TD>413</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>28-44</TD><TD>24-28</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>7.4</TD><TD>14.8</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>65</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>34</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>1.7</TD><TD>1.9</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>8-69</TD><TD>5-60</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>27:00</TD><TD>33:00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
vegaskyle said:
Yes .. wonder if the recent WAC results in the bowls will mean a movement in that line for more value on nevada.

What do you guys think ?
Click to expand...

I think the line continues to move in Maryland's favor but not due to the 3 WAC losses. Just name recognition.
 
i joined ya, albeit small, but ND was in control on the first drive that sputtered just inside UH territory. They got a quick stop (not a 3-n-out but close) and then punched it in. Then scored again to make it 14-0 and allowed a Hawaii TD then coasted from there really.

...i'm hoping Nevada drops and i haven't locked it in yet because i think it might

vegaskyle said:
nice win gwarner
Click to expand...

VK,

it's not that simple as i split my play on the 3.5 and the ML, unfortunately.

...it had been going really well for me as i had won both plays most of the time when i've done that this season but it didn't work yesterday as i escaped with 0.111 units before today's +1.00
 
broadwayjoe said:
the wac is clearly awful, but i think it also says a lot about the strength of the mwc. even byu put up a good fight against a team that they didn't match up well against at all. i don't have a problem backing nevada because i have seen that they can be competitive out of conference and teams have to adjust to their style of offense. i really don't think maryland matches up to exploit their weaknesses that well...
Click to expand...

great point. the Wolfpack did give Texas Tech some trouble early in the year :shake:

...i really want Nevada but i'm starting to get worried. I'm thinking the stats look so good for CSU because Fresno was up quite a bit then gave up some huge plays late. One was a long pass with a bad attempt on the ball by the DB and another was a TD to ice it that i think was 70+ yards for Gartrell Johnson. I'm wondering if that'll make the discrepancy worse between those 2, which i think it drastically will.
 
Merry Christmas, Kyle. and thanks for the encouragement you furnished me on that easy ND win. I never bet Hawaii games, but this one really looked good to me. #33 in the confidence pool for me.

Sorry I shied away from USM - great job, my friend, but glad I steered away from TCU. I just get nervous when everyone seems to like the same side.

I'll accept your opinion if you care to share it on any game at any time, so I am interested in your take on the ones you are passing on.

Troy's loss discourages me a bit from taking FAU , but the points vs a MAC team do look tempting.

And I'm leaning No Carolina due to coaching ad for UNC, I think a more balanced O , and bowl games are old hat for WVU whereas UNC has to be a little excited about this one. If I knew that Pat White was not going to run wild, I would be all over UNC.

Not too crazy about the Cal-U game. I suppose I would like points against a Pac 10 team.

Thanks again for all your efforts. :tiphat:
 
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