Bowls 2024/25

RBD

Well-Known Member
Regular season college football record here 1-2, hope to post more plays in the Bowls (and hope to do better than 1-2!)

First pick: S Car (wait to buy it, opened -11', down to 9' now, I expect the # to drop a little more. I'll update my # in this post after I buy it.)

Identical SU records at 9-3.
Similar ATS too, SC 9-3, Illinois 8-3-1

SOS (Strength Of Schedule) is where you'll start to see some separation.
Massey, who played a great Abe Lincoln, and also Jonathan Brewster, (somebody will get those references, no? At least one of two?) has SC at 12, Illinois at 52.
Enough of a differential to justify a better-than-a-TD spread?
If I knew the answer to that I'd have more $ on it.
But I have another reason for buying SC.
I rate Bowl teams in six categories.
In the past 17 years when a team has a better # in all six categories the record is 18-13, 58%.

I usually buy any play that is 58% or > so I'm on the . . . . started to write the team nickname there but don't like they way it looks ("Not that there's anything wrong with that") so I'll say "I'm on S Carolina" instead.

Illinois backers could say, "Of the Illini's three losses, TWO came against Top 10 teams!"
To which I would reply, "Yes, but 'The Illini' is a stupid name for a team."
More to the point, I would say, "Yes, but they lost by 14 points to #9 Penn St and 29 to #1 Oregon, BOTH of which are more than I need to win with SC laying 9'."

The game's in Florida; neutral field.
Illinois was 2-2 away from home.
SC was 4-1, with the sole loss at 'Bama by 2 pts. One of the wins was at #12 Clemson; not too shabby.
The others were by 25 over Kentucky, 26 over Oklahma, and 21 over Vandy. Again, not too shabby, all by 21 or >, all by more than the # I need this one.

Like Mississippi, the ? for S Car is how will they react to being in a lesser bowl and not the playoffs?
Flat and could care less, or motivated to prove they should have been included?
We'll find out on 12/31.

Also in favor of laying the points - I saw where "experts" at ESPN and Sports Illustrated say it will be a close game and the Illini will cover the spread.
Reason enough for me to go the other way.

My play:
S Car (wait to buy it)


Good luck with your Bowl play this season.
 
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Thanks, B.A.R.


Extra juice being added to the '9' at some houses so I bought S Car this morning @ -9', -110
 
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B.A.R.: "Excellent."

Impossible to read that word and not hear it in the voice of Mr. Burns.

Adding a play on a Flip-Flop Fav.
What's a Flip-Flop Fav?
It's a stat that a lot of sports betters talk about and try to apply reasoning to when doing their handicapping - a game where the team that opened as the Fav becomes the Dog.

For years I ran a book on the strip in Vegas, not a satellite but a place where I was also an oddsmaker/bookmaker. Parlay cards had to be submitted to the print shop by Tuesday morning so the type could be set. Before the final printing, I called them with any line changes that needed to be made on the cards. Some of these line changes made an opening favorite become the ‘Dog, and the print shop had to switch which side of the card the team names were on.
Hence, Flip-Flop Favs.

Bettors have different opinions as to what's behind the line moves and where the money's coming from. And often they assume it's smart money bet by sharps and wise guys.

For those of you interested in how these teams perform in Bowl games, here's some recent data to factor into your handicapping. (These stats are all from my personal charts, if I'm off by game let me know if you have something different. Thanks.)

Two years ago:

Washington State opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, lost ATS.

UCF opened as the Fav, closed as the dog, lost ATS.

BYU opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

Last year:

Ohio opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

W Kentucky open as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

Toledo opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.

If supposedly "smart money" is moving the lines then the smart money ain't too bright as the original Favs went 4-2 ATS.

On this year's menu we had:

West Virginia opened -1', closed +6
Depending on when you bought this line you could have had a win or loss but Memphis was a winning play for most.

UNLV opened +4', closed as the Fav at -1.
UNLV won.

San Jose State opened -4', closed +1'.
South Florida took the money.

So, I have Flip-Flop Favs at 3-0 this year.

Remaining on the menu we have:

Iowa State opened - 1, now +3'

Arkansas opened -2', now +2'.

LSU opened -3, now Baylor -2'.

Liberty -2 now Buffalo - 2.

I like to stay with what works so at 3-0 already this season I'll ride this horse until it bucks me.
I took today's entree, Texas Tech -2'.

Good luck with your play today.
 
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