Okay,
I have made one investment to start the season for the winner of the Western Conference. I will start out by saying it is not the Warriors. That would be silly. I was looking for value and with a team that I really believe can win this conference. Now, it will be a long 6 months and many things can happen from now until then but I like starting out with this and we'll go about things from there.
Now, I do know there is a possibility that I can get a better number as the season goes on. That is a risk but a bigger risk to me is waiting on it and losing what I think is pretty good value. My main thing with this bet is to get my team into the thick of things come the playoffs. Once we get into some different situations after the first round I will have options if need be. I am not worried about losing my initial investment because I feel there is a very good chance I can at least make that back at some point in the playoffs if I really want to. That is not the chief goal though, but I wanted to make that known.
I am not going to go into stats etc at this point. I just want to go through some of my theory and we can discuss as much as you would like.
Lets first get our staple of teams down to a base number that actually have a chance...
Memphis, Sacramento and Phoenix can be eliminated right away. They have some young pieces (and old in Memphis) but none of these teams will be doing anything of note this season.
Minnesota seemed like a young and upcoming team. They are team turmoil right now. Even when they get a trade squared away their defense is so bad they simply cannot compete in this conference. Until significant upgrades are made the best we can find from them is a 6-8 seed at best.
The Clippers are also a team that will not do anything significant. They are totally back to being the second sibling in that town. I was under the impression that franchise would absolutely own the L.A. market by now. Someone told us all that once on this very forum.
Dallas has the future... well the they'll be a favorite of mine with the kid and his mom for sometime. They have a few nice pieces but they are aways off from being in any conversation.
My team that I so want to get to the playoff level and even higher is the Nuggets. It would be my luck that this year they win 50-55 games and I have nothing pre-season on them. But, they have Malone as a coach and that is going to do nothing for them when it is all said and done. They have a lot to be excited about and with the right moves and the correct next head coach they are cooking up a little something over there.
The Pelicans were a lot of fun last year and oh the money they made me in live betting totals was fantastic but they are not championship caliber. They have an MVP and a few nice players but again, the coach and defense leave so much to be desired. It is too bad, I want Davis to stay there and make them a contender but more than likely he ends up elsewhere.
The Portland Trailblazers are just kind of stuck where they are at. They are a good team, not great, that will lean on their guards once again. They can get into the playoffs and maybe scare for a game or two but that is about it. Lillard is such a gamer, even though he can be selfish at times. But, they all can be selfish. The chemistry on that team is not great at all in my opinion. I have held that opinion for a few years now.
The Spurs did not improve via the trade and lose Murray to an ACL. That is terrible for them. I give Pop credit for continuing to coach. He could certainly retire and go off into the sunset but he keeps on doing his thing. They are a borderline playoff team at best. I am surprised at their odds still for the Western Conference.
So, we are now left with 5 teams to vie for the Western Conference...
Lets start with the great unknown, the L.A. Lakers. First of all, I cannot wait to watch this team. I think every game will be filled with some sort of hilarity with guys like JaVale, Lance, Rondo etc. Lebron is Lebron and will make everyone around him better. But, this is not the Eastern Conference. The Cavs made their hay against Toronto and an injured Celtics squad last year. He will bring it all in the playoffs but the farthest I see them getting is the 2nd round.
The Thunder magically resigned Paul George. Not many people saw that coming. I am not a huge fan of Billy D in the pros. Is he an upgrade over Scotty Brooks? Yes. Is he a championship coach? No he is not. It will be addition by subtraction with Carmelo gone. This team will be very solid during the regular season but once again they will be at best, a 2nd round team in the playoffs. They just do not have the best mix and I do not like this team having two ball control guys on it at all.
So, I have three teams to choose from.
Golden State who is chalk.
Houston who is 5-1/6-1 depending on where you look.
And, Utah, who is 50-1 at some spots.
My pick to win the Western Conference
Utah Jazz +5000
First, many of you know I expected the Rockets to not gel well last year. Well, I was wrong, they made it work very well. I am not going to talk about the injuries and whatnot in the playoffs because that happens. This team was solid and CP was the reason. He made sacrifices and he played very well without the ball. It was impressive. Now, here is my issue this year. One, they won't have that season again. Two, they lost some important defensive players. Three, Carmelo. Listen, I love Carmelo and have since freshman year at Cuse. He is in the exact same situation as last year except in more of a three-point happy offense. The Houston run the clock down offense at some point isn't going to work consistently enough. I really think this team topped out last season. Will they be good? Absolutely. Will they be great? I do not think so.
All good things must come to an end. The Warriors have been a treat for most off us over the last several years. Now, they have played some long, long season lately and were brought to the brink by the Rockets. This year, I think they will be ripe for an upset by the time the playoffs come about. Sure, they will still go deep, but I think they can be had. This won't be a totally smooth season for them. They have been bored for a few years and it will catch up to them this year in my opinion. Obviously I very well could be fighting destiny but this is the first time I have thought this.
So, here we have 'my' Utah Jazz.
They fit some criteria for me, even in the new NBA
Good coach? Yes
Star to near Superstar player? Yes
Good defense? Yes
Home court advantage? Huge
This team isn't the sexiest, sans Mitchell, but they are damn good. They don't have a bunch of names but they have been building things slowly but surely for a bit now. They have changed some pieces and seem to have a good fit. Will they finally get a break from the injury bug? You would have to think so. Mitchell should take the next step this year and that will be huge.
This team will win 54-58 games in my opinion. I think they will be right there for HCA in the 2nd round. I really believe they can beat Houston/LA/GSW in a 7 game series. Will they? Hey, who knows...we have a long season to go and I am merely looking at what I see now and what I think I'll see next spring.
But, you are giving me 50-1 to win the conference. These are not championship odds. They are simply inflated due to the Warriors (and to a lesser extent the Rockets).
I'll invest in that small and see what kind of fun we can have. Get me to the 2nd round and the fun starts. Get me to the WCF'S and creative options come into play.
Lets play ball.
I have made one investment to start the season for the winner of the Western Conference. I will start out by saying it is not the Warriors. That would be silly. I was looking for value and with a team that I really believe can win this conference. Now, it will be a long 6 months and many things can happen from now until then but I like starting out with this and we'll go about things from there.
Now, I do know there is a possibility that I can get a better number as the season goes on. That is a risk but a bigger risk to me is waiting on it and losing what I think is pretty good value. My main thing with this bet is to get my team into the thick of things come the playoffs. Once we get into some different situations after the first round I will have options if need be. I am not worried about losing my initial investment because I feel there is a very good chance I can at least make that back at some point in the playoffs if I really want to. That is not the chief goal though, but I wanted to make that known.
I am not going to go into stats etc at this point. I just want to go through some of my theory and we can discuss as much as you would like.
Lets first get our staple of teams down to a base number that actually have a chance...
Memphis, Sacramento and Phoenix can be eliminated right away. They have some young pieces (and old in Memphis) but none of these teams will be doing anything of note this season.
Minnesota seemed like a young and upcoming team. They are team turmoil right now. Even when they get a trade squared away their defense is so bad they simply cannot compete in this conference. Until significant upgrades are made the best we can find from them is a 6-8 seed at best.
The Clippers are also a team that will not do anything significant. They are totally back to being the second sibling in that town. I was under the impression that franchise would absolutely own the L.A. market by now. Someone told us all that once on this very forum.
Dallas has the future... well the they'll be a favorite of mine with the kid and his mom for sometime. They have a few nice pieces but they are aways off from being in any conversation.
My team that I so want to get to the playoff level and even higher is the Nuggets. It would be my luck that this year they win 50-55 games and I have nothing pre-season on them. But, they have Malone as a coach and that is going to do nothing for them when it is all said and done. They have a lot to be excited about and with the right moves and the correct next head coach they are cooking up a little something over there.
The Pelicans were a lot of fun last year and oh the money they made me in live betting totals was fantastic but they are not championship caliber. They have an MVP and a few nice players but again, the coach and defense leave so much to be desired. It is too bad, I want Davis to stay there and make them a contender but more than likely he ends up elsewhere.
The Portland Trailblazers are just kind of stuck where they are at. They are a good team, not great, that will lean on their guards once again. They can get into the playoffs and maybe scare for a game or two but that is about it. Lillard is such a gamer, even though he can be selfish at times. But, they all can be selfish. The chemistry on that team is not great at all in my opinion. I have held that opinion for a few years now.
The Spurs did not improve via the trade and lose Murray to an ACL. That is terrible for them. I give Pop credit for continuing to coach. He could certainly retire and go off into the sunset but he keeps on doing his thing. They are a borderline playoff team at best. I am surprised at their odds still for the Western Conference.
So, we are now left with 5 teams to vie for the Western Conference...
Lets start with the great unknown, the L.A. Lakers. First of all, I cannot wait to watch this team. I think every game will be filled with some sort of hilarity with guys like JaVale, Lance, Rondo etc. Lebron is Lebron and will make everyone around him better. But, this is not the Eastern Conference. The Cavs made their hay against Toronto and an injured Celtics squad last year. He will bring it all in the playoffs but the farthest I see them getting is the 2nd round.
The Thunder magically resigned Paul George. Not many people saw that coming. I am not a huge fan of Billy D in the pros. Is he an upgrade over Scotty Brooks? Yes. Is he a championship coach? No he is not. It will be addition by subtraction with Carmelo gone. This team will be very solid during the regular season but once again they will be at best, a 2nd round team in the playoffs. They just do not have the best mix and I do not like this team having two ball control guys on it at all.
So, I have three teams to choose from.
Golden State who is chalk.
Houston who is 5-1/6-1 depending on where you look.
And, Utah, who is 50-1 at some spots.
My pick to win the Western Conference
Utah Jazz +5000
First, many of you know I expected the Rockets to not gel well last year. Well, I was wrong, they made it work very well. I am not going to talk about the injuries and whatnot in the playoffs because that happens. This team was solid and CP was the reason. He made sacrifices and he played very well without the ball. It was impressive. Now, here is my issue this year. One, they won't have that season again. Two, they lost some important defensive players. Three, Carmelo. Listen, I love Carmelo and have since freshman year at Cuse. He is in the exact same situation as last year except in more of a three-point happy offense. The Houston run the clock down offense at some point isn't going to work consistently enough. I really think this team topped out last season. Will they be good? Absolutely. Will they be great? I do not think so.
All good things must come to an end. The Warriors have been a treat for most off us over the last several years. Now, they have played some long, long season lately and were brought to the brink by the Rockets. This year, I think they will be ripe for an upset by the time the playoffs come about. Sure, they will still go deep, but I think they can be had. This won't be a totally smooth season for them. They have been bored for a few years and it will catch up to them this year in my opinion. Obviously I very well could be fighting destiny but this is the first time I have thought this.
So, here we have 'my' Utah Jazz.
They fit some criteria for me, even in the new NBA
Good coach? Yes
Star to near Superstar player? Yes
Good defense? Yes
Home court advantage? Huge
This team isn't the sexiest, sans Mitchell, but they are damn good. They don't have a bunch of names but they have been building things slowly but surely for a bit now. They have changed some pieces and seem to have a good fit. Will they finally get a break from the injury bug? You would have to think so. Mitchell should take the next step this year and that will be huge.
This team will win 54-58 games in my opinion. I think they will be right there for HCA in the 2nd round. I really believe they can beat Houston/LA/GSW in a 7 game series. Will they? Hey, who knows...we have a long season to go and I am merely looking at what I see now and what I think I'll see next spring.
But, you are giving me 50-1 to win the conference. These are not championship odds. They are simply inflated due to the Warriors (and to a lesser extent the Rockets).
I'll invest in that small and see what kind of fun we can have. Get me to the 2nd round and the fun starts. Get me to the WCF'S and creative options come into play.
Lets play ball.
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