Performify's Picks for UFC 83
Georges St. Pierre (-500) vs. Matt Serra (+300)
This time last year, Georges St. Pierre was scheduled to defend his belt against what most felt was a joke of a contender -- someone who "earned" his title shot by narrowly winning a season of "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show populated mostly by "has-beens." That "has-been" was Matt "the Terror" Serra, who came in to the fight as a heavy underdog. St. Pierre vs. Serra at UFC 69 was supposed to be one of the most one-sided beatdowns in UFC history.
With the buildup for this rematch, surely everyone knows what came next in this Cinderella story. The one-sided beatdown came to fruition as predicted, except the roles were reversed. Serra landed several big punches early (including one some believe illegally landed on the back of St. Pierre's head), stunned the champion, and secured the victory by TKO at 3:25 of the very first round.
Fast forward to present day. St. Pierre is 15-2, 9-2 in the UFC, with the only other loss on his record (to Matt Hughes at UFC 50) having already been twice avenged. St. Pierre now looks to avenge his disappointing loss to Serra and finally silence those who have criticized his mental toughness.
St. Pierre has fought twice since losing to Serra: a unanimous decision victory over Josh Koscheck at UFC 74, and a second-round submission victory over Matt Hughes at UFC 79. That fight, held at the culmination of "The Ultimate Fighter 6," was supposed to be Hughes vs. Serra for the organization's welterweight title. However, Serra had to pull out of the fight due to a back injury, and St. Pierre stepped in and was awarded an interim title while Serra recovered from his injuries.
St. Pierre is widely regarded as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. He's exceptionally well-rounded, with superb wrestling and takedowns (he was able to out-wrestle Koscheck, one of the most decorated and talented wrestlers in the UFC), dangerous ground-and-pound striking, solid submissions, and incredible athleticism and conditioning.
On the other side of the fence, Serra comes in with a 9-4 record, 6-4 in the UFC. Serra has been inactive since April 2007 when he defeated St. Pierre.
Serra is generally regarded as a skilled practitioner of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He certainly has the credentials to prove it: he holds a BJJ black belt under the legendary Renzo Gracie and has numerous wins in grappling competitions including Abu Dhabi and the Pan Am games. Curiously, Serra's BJJ skills haven't been showcased frequently during his MMA career. He holds only four of his wins by way of submission, and three of those came by way of his first three fights, in 1999, 2000, and early 2001 respectively.
Serra has fought five times in the last five years, and all of those fights went to decision with the exception of his upset victory over St. Pierre. During that stretch of decisions, he amassed wins over Jeff Curan, Ivan Menjivar, and a split-decision victory over Chris Lytle to win "The Ultimate Fighter 4." His lone loss in the streak was a unanimous decision to Karo Parisyan at UFC 53 in mid-2005.
I'm one of the people who consider the first Serra vs. St. Pierre fight as a statistical anomaly: a real-world example of a true longshot coming through. I realistically gave Serra only a small percentage chance to win the first fight, and I still sincerely believe that if their fight from UFC 69 were held 10 different times, St. Pierre would win nine out of the 10.
As such, I believe that this fight will go the same way. On paper, Serra is vastly over-matched in almost every way against St. Pierre. St. Pierre has significantly better striking, significantly better wrestling, and significantly better cardio. Serra might have an edge in offensive and defensive jiu jitsu, but his body type (short, muscular arms and legs) doesn't generally allow for a lot of leverage for offensive submissions, a reason I think we've seen only minimal use of his BJJ in his modern MMA career.
There are certainly some concerns and unknowns here on both sides. St. Pierre has gone on record talking about his struggles with his focus, and it's certainly possible a big knockout loss against an opponent can affect you mentally the next time you face them. Just look at Rich Franklin's composure during his second fight against Anderson Silva. Likewise, Serra has his own unknowns. He's coming off a major back injury, and he hasn't fought in a full year. Ring rust, conditioning, and chance for re-injury are all negative factors weighing on Serra.
The current betting line gives Serra a 25% chance of pulling the upset a second time. On the flip side, St. Pierre has to win better than 85% of the time to make him a good bet. I believe that St. Pierre in fact wins this fight at least nine out of 10, making him still a decent bet despite the significantly heavy odds.
Given that this is a five-round fight, and with the results of the last fight weighing heavily upon him, I think St. Pierre comes out of the gates a little slowly. Likewise, with Serra working off a year's worth of ring rust, I wouldn't be surprised to see the first round a tentative and cautious exchange by both parties. I look for St. Pierre to use his speed and athleticism to out-strike Serra standing in the first round, while Serra throws haymaker after haymaker trying to land the same blow he did in the last fight. After the first round, I think St. Pierre closes ground behind his superior Muay Thai, eventually taking the fight to the ground (either via his wrestling skills or by stunning his opponent with strikes) and finishes with ground and pound. St. Pierre by TKO in the second round.
Rich Franklin (-350) vs. Travis Lutter (+250)
This fight is being billed as a classic MMA conflict of styles, with Travis Lutter (9-4 MMA, 2-3 UFC) possessing solid BJJ skills and almost zero striking skills, and Rich Franklin (22-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC) being promoted as mostly a striker. For those new to MMA, that might be a reality, as few of Franklin's last fights have hit the ground or showcased much by way of jiu jitsu. However, Franklin does have nine wins by way of submission, mostly armbars and a few kimuras (shoulder locks). Franklin also possesses solid wrestling skills, which often can neutralize a lot of offensive jiu jitsu.
Franklin's three MMA losses are all to elite competition: Anderson Silva twice, and Lyoto Machida back in 2003. Lutter has losses to Jorge Rivera, Matt Lindland, Trevor Prangley, and most recently, Anderson Silva back at UFC 67. This is Lutter's first fight back since losing to Silva in early 2007.
This might be Lutter's last chance in the UFC. After winning the middleweight class of "The Ultimate Fighter 4," he was universally scorned after infamously failing to make weight for his title shot against Anderson Silva. Now, after 14 months penance, Lutter faces a formidable test in Franklin.
While this fight may not be the stylistic mismatch it's billed to be for Franklin, Lutter is nowhere near as well-rounded. Lutter's skills are almost exclusively on the ground, and I don't expect he'll have much opportunity to exercise them in this fight. Look for Franklin to come out swinging and to exploit the mismatch in striking skills between him and his opponent, using his strong wrestling skills and significant strength advantage to foil multiple takedown attempts from Lutter on route to a one-sided first round KO.
This line opened a bit closer, most of the money has come in on Franklin, and the line has moved as a result. Currently, Franklin needs to win about 80% of the time to be a good bet. I think that's about accurate, making Franklin an OK bet but not one with a very high return.
Nathan Quarry (-265) vs. Kalib Starnes (+205)
Nate Quarry is 36 years old and holds a 9-2 MMA record, 5-1 in the UFC. He has wins over Pete Sell (twice), Shonie Carter and Lodune Sincaid. His lone UFC loss was to Rich Franklin at UFC 56.
Kalib Starnes is three years younger than his opponent, with an 8-2-1 MMA record, 2-2 in the UFC. Starnes was a participant in the third season of "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show, losing in the semifinals to eventual series winner Kendall Grove.
Starnes is coming off a loss to Alan Belcher at UFC 77, via a stoppage due to a cut. Starnes has wins in the UFC over Chris Leben and Danny Abbadi, and a loss to top contender Yushin Okami. Starnes also has a win over Jason MacDonald prior to joining the UFC.
This fight could be one of the more competitive matches on the main card. Both fighters come from solid camps, Quarry training with Team Quest (update: Quarry recently parted ways with Quest, but still has the background of training with them), Starnes splitting his time between Florida's American Top Team and Canada's Revolution Fight Team. Both fighters are athletic and are well-rounded mixed martial artists. Starnes has a relatively significant edge in jiu jitsu but generally has weak takedowns that will be further frustrated by Quarry's edge in wrestling and strength. Quarry has the edge striking but tends to absorb a lot of punishment in exchanges. Starnes striking has shown improvement in his last couple fights, especially in defeating Leben at UFC 71 as a moderate underdog.
Starnes is being given a 33% chance to win this fight as an underdog, and I think that's a well-set line. Starnes definitely has a chance as an underdog. He's likely to win the first round on the cards as he's a strong starter, and Quarry tends to take a while to get started. I think the line tells the story here: Quarry should win this with his superior striking about two-thirds of the time, the other one-third of the time we'll see Starnes with an upset, likely a rear-naked choke.
When a line is well set, like I believe this one to be, you can bet either side and be relatively comfortable, if you have a personal preference. It's also a good time to take a chance on the underdog if the line is indeed accurate. While you'll lose more than you'll win; you're getting an adequate price and will have less money at risk.
My pick here is Starnes with the upset, a submission victory early in the second round. But as usual this is a pure underdog play against the odds; Quarry wins more often than not.
Michael Bisping (-330) vs. Charles McCarthy (+260)
Michael Bisping is very well known from winning the third season of "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show. Bisping sports a 14-1 MMA record and is 4-1 in the UFC with wins over Elvis Sinosic, Eric Schafer, Josh Haynes, and a highly controversial win over Matt Hamill at UFC 75. Bisping is coming off a split-decision loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 78.
Bisping has not looked great in his last four performances, struggling early against both Schafer and Sinosic, nearly getting beat by Hamill (many had Hamill winning the fight in a razor-thin decision, which in my opinion, could have gone either way), and finally in defeat against Evans. Bisping is now dropping down from light heavyweight to fight at middleweight, generally a smart move due to the glut of talent at 205 and the relative thinness of 185. Why only "generally" a smart move? Well, moving to 185 puts you in arm's length of Anderson Silva, and that's never a smart move.
Charles McCarthy is 10-4 in MMA, 1-1 in the UFC. McCarthy trains with American Top Team and was a contestant on the fourth season of "The Ultimate Fighter." McCarthy holds a BJJ brown belt, and he puts it to use often: all 10 of McCarthy's wins have come by way of submission.
McCarthy hasn't had a professional MMA fight since The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale back in November 2006. That's a 17-month layoff, for those scoring at home. McCarthy has been active, teaching at his own MMA gym in Florida and training with ATT, but ring rust is still a significant worry.
This is actually an interesting and dangerous match-up for Bisping. Bisping looked like a golden god while on the reality show, but since he's struggled mightily. Bisping should have a significant edge in striking, in size, and in strength, and will almost certainly try to keep this fight standing. However, McCarthy has shown promise on the ground, and it's very possible that Bisping gets caught in a submission early if the fight hits the ground.
We have two major unknowns in this fight: Bisping's first cut to 185, and McCarthy's long layoff. Both factors are significant enough to me, when combined with a relatively well-set betting line (Bisping is predicted to win about 75% of the time), to avoid betting on this fight. However, I will call Bisping to win with a second-round TKO.
Mac Danzig (-550) vs. Mark Bocek (+350)
Mark Bocek is another Canadian on the card, fighting out of Ontario. He's only 26 years old and holds a 5-1 MMA record, 1-1 in the UFC.
Bocek was heavily hyped on his signing to the UFC, with a decorated background in grappling and a BJJ black belt. However, he was almost immediately outclassed by Frankie Edgar in his debut at UFC 73 and looked very ineffective in defeating Doug Evans at UFC 79.
Mac Danzig is the winner of the most recently concluded season of "The Ultimate Fighter," holding a 17-4-1 MMA record and is 1-0 in the UFC after defeating Tommy Speer at The Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale. Danzig fought for several years in regional organizations before graduating to King of the Cage. He then made one appearance in PRIDE right before the organization was acquired by the UFC, and he lost to Japanese fan favorite Hayato Sakurai.
Danzig competed on "The Ultimate Fighter" at welterweight and is now dropping down to his natural fighting weight class to compete at lightweight.
This match-up is almost perfect for Danzig. The UFC is often criticized for handing "The Ultimate Fighter" alumni favorable match-ups that they should easily win. While far be it from me to criticize the UFC for trying to handpick opponents to groom their marketable stars, it's pretty easy to assume that's exactly what's at play here. Bocek hasn't demonstrated anything in his two UFC fights that should make him an equal competitor here. While Bocek certainly has the impressive grappling pedigree, we saw very little of it in action against Doug Evans in his last fight, and Danzig will present a much more significant threat.
I expect Danzig will come out and abuse Bocek on the feet while expertly shrugging off takedown attempts. Look for the striking mismatch and strength disadvantage to take its toll on Bocek, who will fall victim to a TKO in the third round.
Undercard:
Jason MacDonald (-165) vs. Joe Doerksen (+135)
Get ready for some hot Canadian-on-Canadian action as Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald (19-9 MMA, 3-2 UFC) takes on traveled MMA veteran Joe Doerksen (39-11 MMA, 1-4 UFC). The two previously faced off in late 2005 in Canada's "Ultimate Cage Wars" organization. There, MacDonald submitted Doerksen with a rear naked choke late in the fourth round.
Despite Doerksen's long record, he's not that old -- only 30. He's also better than his UFC record would indicate; despite losing almost all of his fights up in the "big leagues," Doerksen won seven fights across 2006 and early 2007 in organizations such as Extreme Challenge, the IFL and Japan's DEEP. Coming off this win streak, in August last year Doerksen was given a shot at the WEC's then-vacant middleweight title. Unfortunately for Doerksen, he was no match for Paulo Filho, who knocked out the Canadian in the first round. Doerksen was then called up to the UFC to face Ed Herman at UFC 78. There, Doerksen was knocked out early in the third round.
Of course, after spending the last paragraph talking up Doerksen, I'm going to go the other way. Despite having the advantage in experience and in strength, MacDonald has a reach advantage and should show a significant edge in conditioning. Both fighters are strong grapplers, but MacDonald has a slight edge standing, especially in Muay Thai work from the clinch. MacDonald trains with Greg Jackson's camp, and the edge he should have in game-planning and coaching isn't something to ignore.
With both of these fighters' solid jiu jitsu skills, I expect the ground game to be a stalemate and the fight to be won or lost on the feet. There, MacDonald has a thin but meaningful edge. MacDonald by unanimous decision.
Alan Belcher (-450) vs. Jason Day (+300)
Alan Belcher holds a 12-4 MMA record, 3-2 in the UFC. Belcher is only 23 years old and holds a blue belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. Belcher is coming off a two-fight win streak with victories over Sean Salmon at UFC 71 and Kalib Starnes at UFC 77. Before those wins, Belcher was handed a pair of losses from Kendall Grove and Yushin Okami interspersed with a win over Jorge Santiago.
Jason Day is yet another Canadian fighter, holding a 16-5 MMA record and is making his UFC debut. Day is on a four-fight win streak with his most recent victory a split decision over one-time UFC fighter David "The Crow" Loiseau. Day's win streak goes back to a loss to the UFC's Patrick Cote in the TKO organization back in June of last year.
Belcher is being given a better-than-80% chance to win this fight. Belcher's octagon experience and well-rounded skills should prove sufficient to handle the newcomer; however, there's not enough of a betting edge to justify laying this much chalk on the heavy favorite. I predict Belcher by TKO in the second round.
Ed Herman (+140) vs. Demian Maia (-180)
Brazilian Demian Maia is a decorated grappler who has experienced an effective transition to the mixed martial arts fight game. He holds a 6-0 MMA record and is 1-0 in the UFC after submitting Ryan Jensen at UFC 77. Maia is a BJJ black belt with several impressive jiu jitsu competition wins, including three World Cup wins, a win and a second-place finish in the prestigious Abu Dhabi Combat Club, and a Pan American championship.
Ed Herman is another former "The Ultimate Fighter" competitor, who lost to Kendall Grove in the series finale but was awarded a consolation UFC contract after the close fight. Herman holds a 14-4 MMA record and is 3-2 in the UFC. He trains with Team Quest under Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland.
Herman is tough and gritty but will be significantly outclassed the minute this fight hits the ground. Maia possesses a sufficiently well-rounded MMA game, unlike many skilled grapplers who have transitioned to the UFC but haven't demonstrated other skills and have ultimately found little success.
Maia should have sufficient skills to close ground on Herman and take him down. Unless Herman can catch Maia on the feet and knock him out, Herman will find himself on his back and pretty quickly tapping out thereafter. Maia by submission in the first round.
Rich Clementi (+120) vs. Sam Stout (-160)
Sam Stout (13-3-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is yet another Canadian on the card. He trains under Shawn Tompkins and has a strong background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. However, Stout has proven to be a relatively one-dimensional fighter in his MMA career, getting taken down almost at will by previous UFC opponents Kenny Florian and Spencer Fisher. Stout showed improvement in his last fight against Per Eklund at UFC 80. However, I don't believe it will be sufficient to get past his veteran opponent.
Rich Clementi holds an extensive 30-12-1 MMA record, 3-3 in the UFC. Clementi is on a four fight win streak, including two consecutive wins in the UFC, against Anthony Johnson at UFC 76 and Melvin Guillard at UFC 79.
While Tompkins has shown he's successfully improved Stout's takedown defense and grappling skills from his back, I'm afraid Stout's still a little too one-dimensional for someone as veteran and well-rounded as Clementi. I expect Clementi will take some early punishment but will eventually muscle Stout against the fence, down to the ground, and into a submission. Clementi by submission, early in the second round or late in the first.
Brad Morris (+200) vs. Cain Velasquez (-260)
These two rookies are ready to bring some much-needed new blood in to the UFC's thin heavyweight ranks. Cain Velasquez (2-0 MMA) was a two-time All-American wrester for Arizona State and a two-time Pac-10 champion. He's previously fought in Strikeforce and in BodogFIGHT. He trains at the American Kickboxing Academy alongside fellow standout wrestlers Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck.
His opponent, Brad Morris (9-2 MMA), fights out of Australia and holds a brown belt in Japanese jiu jitsu. Morris is not a full-time fighter; he still works at his day job as a prison officer.
Velasquez is a highly touted prospect, and Morris has his own hype out of the land down under. I've seen only one fight from each fighter, and it's sometimes dangerous to buy in to the hype about a highly touted prospect who hasn't been tested. Morris has more fight experience, but Velasquez should be use to the high-level competition thanks to his decorated wrestling background. Velasquez needs to win this fight 75% of the time to make him a good bet at the current odds, and I think that's about right. Velasquez by ground-and-pound TKO in the second. However, it's always hard betting on a fight like this with so much uncertainty, so I won't blame anyone who stays away.
Kuniyoshi Hironaka (-240) vs. Jonathan Goulet (+190)
One more fight, one more Canadian. Jonathan Goulet (21-9 MMA, 3-3 UFC) holds a BJJ blue belt and possesses well-rounded skills. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (11-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC) holds blackbelts in BJJ and in Judo and is a veteran of Japan's Shooto organization.
Hironaka was given an unfavorable welcome to the UFC, getting handed Jon Fitch as his first fight. Fitch grounded out a unanimous decision, and Hironaka was off to a tough start. He rebounded with a unanimous decision victory over Forrest Petz at UFC Fight Night 9 before dropping his next fight to Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night 11.
Hironaka is being given a 70% chance to win this fight, and I think he wins this at least three out of four, making him an OK bet. While Goulet is well rounded and has some good striking skills, Hironaka is no slouch standing and is much more skilled on the ground. Expect to see some fireworks early, but unless the hometown crowd can propel Goulet to a first-round KO, look for Hironaka to judo-flip Goulet to the ground and submit him late in the second round.
My plays for the record:
- Georges St. Pierre (-500) - 5 units to win 1 unit
- Kalib Starnes (+205) - .2 units to win .41 units
- Demian Maia (-180) - 3.6 units to win 2 units
- Rich Clementi (+120) - .5 units to win .6 units
