Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jun 9 Thu 2022

12:35 PM
901Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Davies -R+1½
-160		+118O 9½
-120
902Cincinnati RedsT. Mahle -R-1½
+140		-128U 9½
+100
01:10 PM
919St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R+1½
-145		+164O 7
+100
920Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L-1½
+125		-178U 7
-120
02:10 PM
903Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Eflin -R+1½
-145		+145O 7½
-104
904Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R-1½
+125		-157U 7½
-116
02:10 PM
921Los Angeles DodgersT. Anderson -L-1½
+137		-117O 8½
-105
922Chicago White SoxD. Cease -R+1½
-157		+107U 8½
-115
06:40 PM
907Washington NationalsS. Strasburg -R+1½
-172		+117O 8
-130
908Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L-1½
+152		-127U 8
+110
07:20 PM
909Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Brubaker -R+1½
+115		+226O 8
-130
910Atlanta BravesM. Fried -L-1½
-135		-253U 8
+110
07:40 PM
913New York YankeesG. Cole -R-1½
-124		-197O 8½
-110
914Minnesota TwinsD. Bundy -R+1½
+104		+181U 8½
-110
08:10 PM
915Baltimore OriolesB. Zimmermann -L+1½
-205		-105O 9½
-118
916Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L-1½
+175		-105U 9½
-102
09:38 PM
917Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R+1½
-190		+115O 7½
-133
918Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R-1½
+165		-125U 7½
+113
 
I just don’t understand why they have one game with pitcher props up for 2marro and it a night game!?!??!? All those day games and they only have lines out for pitchers in a night game? These Mfers make no sense! Lol. Anyways, guess it better for me since I can’t go make any bets till morning so no reason to let ppl suck value out of any potentially soft numbers overnight! Lol.


I will be hoping they come with 5.5 at reasonably low juice to the over on Mahle k’s! Not sure if I can play it at 6.5, for some reason his ops against been way worse on 4 days rest this year despite being 20 points lower on 4 opposed to 5 throughout his career. His career day/night is almost identical so no worries there. Most importantly he playing the heavy strikeout snakes who he fanned 15x in 10 innings over 2 games against them last season while holding them to a redic .286 ops!
 
Could be a good game for a +1.5/under parlay on cards. McClanahan is without a doubt the superior starting pitcher as we were talking bout how great he been the other day (gotta be AL cy young front runner) but Mikolas a quality start machine who I expect will bounce back off a couple rough outings. Cards top end relievers didn’t pitch last night and didn’t throw many pitches in gm1 of series so Mikolas should be followed by the best guys, that screams they hold rays to 2-3 runs tops imo. This be the 3rd lhp pitcher cards have seen in last 4 games and they struggled against the last 2. I certainly don’t expect them to knock McClanahan around but I think they can plate a couple. +218 a pretty good price for this I think. Maybe cards ml +155 decent also, I don’t think they have been swept once this year! (Might wanna double check me on this but I can’t recall them being swept).
 
Gotta look at Red Sox getting plus money against the continuing to struggle halo bats. Ohtani is awesome and all but Pivetta been solid, can’t imagine he gonna struggle much vs a team with a .480 ops this month! only the A’s offense been worse in June and let’s be honest, laa struggles date back further than that, they are in a crazy bad slide! Anytime they have managed to score a few runs the last 2 weeks the pitching gives it up, then they go back to scoring nothing!! Pivetta over 17.5 outs worth a look also!
 
Speaking of teams on a slide gotta think bout fading milw also. Phillies been winning games since firing manager as well. pretty big number, could be another game to think bout the RL/under parlay as you would expect Eflin will have to be good to compete with Burnes. Brewers only averaging 2 runs a game in June!
 
How the hell has Tyler Anderson become so dominant? All a sudden this Mfer has a elite change up and as often happens with pitchers after joining giants staff (2 years ago) his pitch mix has changed to feature his best pitch more often (kinda odd that is so revolutionary! Lol) . This will be a interesting test considering CWS hit lhp way better than right. Maybe @VirginiaCavs can tell us how well chisox hit change up from lefties as that gonna be a big key in this one.

He hasn’t given up a earned run in his last 3 starts and since getting bombed by Phillies 5 starts ago his last 4 starts he has thrown 27 innings and only allowed 2 runs with a 26-1 k/bb rate!! I can’t believe this shit gonna keep up and I think we can def make a case he has had some favorable matchups of late but regardless of opponent he been fantastic,
 
Well they gave us 5.5 for Mahle over k’s but juiced it to shit, I don’t really like Mahle enough in general to be excited to pay -155 but I suppose if you have a game you like that expensive like yanks or something you could use as a parlay partner. Thing is parlays mask the juice but it obviously still there, im ok when I love the play, Mahle hard to love!! Lol
 
So I reluctantly did a couple smaller than typical 2 teamers with Mahle over 5.5 k’s, 1 with cards +1.5 and another with Phillies+1.5, think the key is simply him not getting knocked out the game in the 1st couple innings, long as he can go 5 innings I think he will get 6 punch outs vs snakes.

Played Pivetta ov 17.5 outs and 5.5 k’s. Gotta pick on the offenses who not producing while they struggling cause it won’t last forever! outside of Oakland no lineup has stunk it up more than halo’s the last few weeks!

That was it for my 1st betting trip of day! Worked out something with a guy I met at casino last fall to where I’m putting anything he wants in early when I’m up there (gotta get to some these props fast as they tend to move!) and he will do same for me later on so I won’t have to keep making the extra trips! So far it been working out! Lol. Gas just too fucking expensive!!
 
Oh I almost forgot, played chisox FF team total over 1.5 runs also. Even tho the Tim anderson Injury really hurting them I still like this lineup vs lefties and I’m not a huge buyer on Tyler anderson, not saying he hasn’t improved a great deal but not sure I’m convinced he this good!! His swinging strike rate has become elite, he’s got guys swinging at stuff outside the zone more than ever while making less contact on it! His change up is no doubt elite and like every pitcher who pitches for San Fran he has upped the usage of his best pitch while lowering the usage of his worst pitches since the minute he signed w them!

There is no question he better than he was and I think a good case can be made San Fran had a lot to do with that even tho they didn’t see the benefits with him they have with lot of other cheap pickups. My understanding of the change up is it a “feel” pitch so throwing it so much more has most likely increased its nastiness it just took awhile. So certainly don’t think this a fluke, I just don’t think the numbers will continue to be this good! After all someone gonna figure out to start laying off anything at lower end the zone realizing it will end up being a ball!! Then we see if he can adjust to that?
 
I decided to use Mahle k’s with the 2 run line dogs I like cutting into some of the RL/under bets. I did play dog rl/under 4 team RR parlay (groups of 2) in the cards/rays and Philly/milw games.
 
Cards are seriously batting pujols cleanup and O’Neal 5th? Lol. All bow down to old ass washed up Albert!
 
Mahle is 1 punch out away from cashing after 3 innings. Why was I reluctantly betting him? Oh yea, it was pricey!
 
Were Nolan Gorman minor league splits just god awful? It’s crazy to me they have sat him in every game this week vs a lhp! Do we not notice all a sudden the guys who they playing vs lefties not hitting them?? Are we gonna train our big time hitting prospect to not hit against same handed pitchers? Seriously? We don’t sit right handed hitters vs right handed pitchers, that would be called stupid!! Why is it ok to not let him face lefties? Doesn’t he have to learn to hit them at some point If he a franchise cornerstone bat for next decade?? Not even mentioning the fact he been ripping cover off ball so their plan is to not let him get at bats all week cause they facing lefties? Fucking dumb.
 
Unless his ops was below .500 against lefties in minors this plan is stupid!

This Ff under was a lock!! Hopefully full game be good also. These pitchers dealing, they both working fast also, nice to watch.
 
what happened to the handful of guys we used to have who talk baseball with me????? Ya’ll making me lonely in these daily mlb threads lately!
 
I dunno If cards can score a run? Last few outs been hit pretty hard so maybe they picking McClanahan up little better now?
 
McClanahan pitch count so low he could go all 9, Cept tampa usually doesn’t let guys go deep regardless of pitch count.
 
Damn. Cards have bunch of hard hit balls last 2 innings but they either right at someone or rays make a great play:
 
We finally have 2 guys on and of course Pujols up in a spot he don’t Fuckinh belong. He overmatched badly here! Don’t be fooled by his double, it was a misplayed pop up! Lol
 
Can we get a pitch runner for Albert? Why wouldn’t they?

Damn, after the gift Error another hard hit liner gets taken away by nice defense. Kinda a odd start for McClanahan, getting incredibly fortunate that hard hit balls finding defenders but he throws one into right field instead of 1st base to give cards a run.
 
Don’t think I want cards to tie it up, they can take lead or stay down by 1. 1st game of series they managed to blow the RL in extra innings :(
 
Damn. Jake (cheese) Burger fouls off 2 hanging breaking balls before striking out of heater with 2 on. Made anderson throw 28 pitches in 1st tho. How the hall you gonna miss change up in zone then get 90 mph fastball blow ya away? Pick one and hit it!
 
Cease has some nasty stuff. Dropping in curves for free strikes while guys gearing up for the 98!

Holy crap, only cost him one pitch but I just saw the absolute worst ball/strike call in my life!! You guys gotta check that out, I dunno how to show it but Cease 2nd pitch to Bellinger he drops the knuckle curve right down the middle and it called a ball! Had to have fooled the ump I guess? That was terrible and the best case I ever seen to let robots call games!
 
great start by Mikolas. Now Rays just need to finish this game off! Cards don’t score and I win!
 
Mikolas was fantastic, just the 1 bad pitch to Choi turns into a 2 run bomb. 9 k’s no walks, I believe rays only had guy on base in 2 innings:, nobody reached 2nd outside the home run of course. Just 1 bad pitch away from a complete game shutout.

McClanahan was no slouch either, cards absolutely hit the ball harder but they were all at someone or rays d made a great play. Of course the run scored and the pujols double were both based on errors, only the run scored was called a error, they gave Albert a charity double on what shoulda been a pop out! Lol.

Pussy ass rays yank mcClanahan when he easily could have finished this game off and instead they just opened the door for cards, every once In awhile they should stop babying their starting pitchers! I guess once you start you can’t stop cause you havnt let them build up to pitching deep into games.
 
2daBank said:
5 after 2. What was his number? I’m assuming it was 7.5 juiced to over or 8.5. He already over 50 pitches his only problem.
Click to expand...
Not sure, didn't even look. Guessing he'll be more efficient if he doesn't let them load the bases again
 
Anyone wanna get crazy and live bet baseball? I really think CWS gonna get to anderson this 2nd time around!! I’m def wishfully thinking since I have Ff team total over but just the way they were fouling off everything they seemed on his pitches. I think they get to him this next inning
 
Boom, cards+1.5 and under! Shoulda came in twice this series but we will take 1 of the 2 we bet at the good odds!
 
KJ said:
Not sure, didn't even look. Guessing he'll be more efficient if he doesn't let them load the bases again
Click to expand...

I’m torn. I’d love to get phil+1.5 and under 7.5 to hit all 4 in the Round robin but I wouldn’t cry bout Phillies jumping all over him and securing 3 of the 4 along with the mahle/Phils +1.5 parlay. I don’t think this game staying under anyways, now milw has bases juiced!
 
2daBank said:
Anyone wanna get crazy and live bet baseball? I really think CWS gonna get to anderson this 2nd time around!! I’m def wishfully thinking since I have Ff team total over but just the way they were fouling off everything they seemed on his pitches. I think they get to him this next inning
Click to expand...

Lead off triple to start inning. Cmon boys!
 
Jeez. Eflin slivered his way out of a bases loaded jam in his half the 2nd. Both starters at 50+ pitches to get thru 2 innings. I don’t love this gonna be a pen game early for Philly.
 
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